Search found 49 matches

by BenfromToronto
Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?
Replies: 98
Views: 6484

Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

I hope for the best by I am prepared for the worst. Unless we find that an existing medication helps with COVID-19, the social isolation measures will have to last until more than 50% of the world population has been infected (and has recovered) or until we have a vaccine. Either way, this will take...
by BenfromToronto
Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How many are regretting not investing in real estate
Replies: 55
Views: 5543

Re: How many are regretting not investing in real estate

I used to leave in Pittsburgh in a nice neighborhood near the universities where the physicians, lawyers, and professors lived. I lived on a nice street with 11 similar large houses built in the 1920s. However, among these 11 identical houses, there was a ugly bungalow built in the 1950s. An old nei...
by BenfromToronto
Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:34 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: How will this market effect dividends?
Replies: 22
Views: 2154

Re: How will this market effect dividends?

During the last 11 Bear markets since WWII, dividends have decreased only -2% on average (range: -23% to +46%) when the S&P500 had dropped -32% on average (range: from -57% to -20%). I expect this drop to be on the higher side (i.e., we are not done; it could go down another 30%) and the decrease in...
by BenfromToronto
Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?
Replies: 181
Views: 26172

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

One thing Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger may be buying: Berkshire Hathaway. They have always said that they buy back shares when the share price is less than its intrinsic value (which they know and we don't). Since its peak on February 19, 2020, SPY (a typical S&P500 ETF) has decreased 29% (from ...
by BenfromToronto
Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best stock to buy in the dip
Replies: 25
Views: 2168

Re: Best stock to buy in the dip

:beer Buying individual stocks is like gambling: it can be fun but you are as likely to lose money as you re to make money. 98% of my assets are currently invested in funds that own 100's of stocks. (I also have close to 10% of my assets invested in BRK but I consider it to be like a fund.) 2% of my...
by BenfromToronto
Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 38657

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Most of these announcements of supposed vaccines are probably attempts to boost stocks, or like the one cited, attempts to get more research funding for labs. Don't be misled by the hype. We just don't know how this will play out. I t might be no worse than flu (which can be really awful and killed...
by BenfromToronto
Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 38657

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

By my count, there have been 54 predictions so far. I counted all of them, and in the case of a range being provided, I used the smaller value of the range (i.e. if someone predicted -20% to -25%, I used -20%). So far, the mean predicted drop from the S&P 500's high of 3,386 is -29.2%, and the medi...
by BenfromToronto
Sat Feb 29, 2020 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4026
Views: 312464

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Here are my current beliefs about the coronavirus situation, the related prediction about the US market, and the action I am taking based on this prediction. I believe the coronavirus situation will get much worse before it gets better. Within a few weeks, there will be a pandemic in the US with sev...
by BenfromToronto
Sat Feb 29, 2020 6:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 38657

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

In this thread, we are being asked to make a prediction. Here are my current beliefs, the related prediction, and the action I am taking based on this prediction. I believe the coronavirus situation will get much worse before it gets better. Within a few weeks, there will be a pandemic in the US wit...
by BenfromToronto
Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Medical school at 34 - Is this financial suicide?
Replies: 116
Views: 10718

Re: Medical school at 34 - Is this financial suicide?

I finished medical school at age 24 and I have worked as a physician for the past 36 years. Because of my job, I interact with 100s of medical students, residents, and physicians. Some are happy, some are unhappy. All those who can work full-time make a decent living (1-percenters) but, given their ...
by BenfromToronto
Tue Nov 12, 2019 10:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: BRK.B
Replies: 22
Views: 3328

Re: BRK.B

miket29 wrote: Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:34 pm The board sentiment is to have index funds instead of stocks, but as been pointed out BRKB isn't really a single company but an investment in several. [...]
For me, I'm holding my remaining BRKB and expect to do so for many years.
Same here (it is about 10% of my invested assets).
by BenfromToronto
Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...
Replies: 107
Views: 7930

Re: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...

If you are ready to pay $50K+ or more, you can buy the most expensive papers or books you can imagine (the equivalent of a Rembrandt or Picasso that would be worth $10M+). For instance, for $60K, today (November 10), you can buy on line a 1937 handwritten letter sent by Albert Einstein to his son d...
by BenfromToronto
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...
Replies: 107
Views: 7930

Re: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...

Like you I am bored by many of the repetitive discussions that I found fascinating a few years ago (SWR of 3% vs. 3.5%; dividends or growth stocks; lump sum vs. DCA; value (or small cap) tilting or not; all stocks or some bonds; TIPS vs. CD ladder... :wink: ). So, I appreciate your post. :D I like t...
by BenfromToronto
Sat Sep 07, 2019 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]
Replies: 254
Views: 34096

Re: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]

When I read the Burry's article, I thought it made one relevant point for people of my age who are retired or close to retirement: “The theater keeps getting more crowded, but the exit door is the same as it always was." Here is how I interpret this quote: it is about investor psychology, not finan...
by BenfromToronto
Sat Sep 07, 2019 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]
Replies: 254
Views: 34096

Re: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]

When I read the Burry's article, I thought it made one relevant point for people of my age who are retired or close to retirement: “The theater keeps getting more crowded, but the exit door is the same as it always was." Here is how I interpret this quote: it is about investor psychology, not financ...
by BenfromToronto
Sat Aug 03, 2019 9:56 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Please help me understand foreign tax credits on capital gains (US/UK/NY)
Replies: 7
Views: 579

Re: Please help me understand foreign tax credits on capital gains (US/UK/NY)

Welcome to the pleasures of cross-boarder taxes! :twisted: I am a US citizen and I live in Canada and I will give you an example of how it works for me, suspecting it will work similarly for you. When I have capital gains, I end up not paying any US federal tax because I can use a foreign tax credit...
by BenfromToronto
Sun Mar 31, 2019 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How can I get a handle on income taxes in retirement?
Replies: 33
Views: 3440

Re: How can I get a handle on income taxes in retirement?

I am not sure I fully understand the question the way it is asked but I believe I am facing a similar situation and I will describe the way I am handling it. My taxes in retirement should have vert little to do with my current taxes since I do not expect to generate any earnings from my work (if I y...
by BenfromToronto
Sat Mar 23, 2019 5:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Limits on taxable accounts
Replies: 4
Views: 639

Re: Limits on taxable accounts

No. If diversified index funds are the best option for the first $5M, why would they not be the best option for the next $5M? If you want more diversification, why don't you need it for the first $5M?
by BenfromToronto
Sat Mar 23, 2019 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who discovered sequence of returns risk?
Replies: 47
Views: 3500

Re: Who discovered sequence of returns risk?

I am surprised that none of you is referencing the recent work done by Big ERN (Early Retirement Now) and his (to-date) 31-part study of safe withdrawal rates (SWR) and how they are affected by sequence of returns (SOR). His study discusses various strategies - e.g., having enough bonds or cash to ...
by BenfromToronto
Sat Mar 23, 2019 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who discovered sequence of returns risk?
Replies: 47
Views: 3500

Re: Who discovered sequence of returns risk?

I am surprised that none of you is referencing the recent work done by Big ERN (Early Retirement Now) and his (to-date) 31-part study of safe withdrawal rates (SWR) and how they are affected by sequence of returns (SOR). His study discusses various strategies - e.g., having enough bonds or cash to s...
by BenfromToronto
Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need Advice on Home Sale
Replies: 15
Views: 890

Re: Need Advice on Home Sale

Another lesson from your adventures: A seller should consider paying for and obtaining an inspection before listing his or her house. He or she can also refuse offers with contingencies. I have done this when selling commercial properties. I bought my current home with no contingency. It is harder t...
by BenfromToronto
Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 856
Views: 62075

Re: John Bogle is dead at 89

Such a sad news.
One of the three heroes I would have picked if I had been offered to have dinner with anybody I wanted to.
My family and I owe him so much.
We will miss his wisdom.

Thank you and RIP, John
by BenfromToronto
Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Millionaire by 40 and How you Did it?
Replies: 205
Views: 36685

Re: Millionaire by 40 and How you Did it?

And here is my story; this is another version of some of the stories above. I was contributing to my 401 plan and an IRA but I did not think much about saving and investing until I read The Wealthy Barber when I was 31 (1991). I completed my "financial education" reading Bogle's Common Sense on Mutu...
by BenfromToronto
Mon Jan 07, 2019 5:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: $70k Salary, how much Car can I afford? Recommendations?
Replies: 21
Views: 3251

Re: $70k Salary, how much Car can I afford? Recommendations?

My first rule of thumb is NOT to finance a car, so with your $35K in cash saving, you could afford a $35K car. This does not mean you need to buy a $35K car; we budget about $15-20K per car and pay cash. As the previous poster, my preference is to buy a very reliable but inexpensive new car and to d...
by BenfromToronto
Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying dips not recommended?
Replies: 52
Views: 4711

Re: Buying dips not recommended?

There is actually a rule-based strategy that does exactly this: the dollar value averaging (DVA) strategy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_averaging. DVA is a variant of the Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy recommended by mots Bogleeheads (i.e., invest regularly as soon as you get paid) and ...
by BenfromToronto
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Weigh in on our Marital Argument =)-- HCOL edition
Replies: 110
Views: 14181

Re: Weigh in on our Marital Argument =)-- HCOL edition

You can make up for wasted money, not wasted time. Nothing is worse than a long commute. I agree with the other posters, you have two optimal solutions: (1) Stay put if you are planning to change jobs and move out of the NYC area within the next three years -- Rent a close-by AirBnB or an hotel room...
by BenfromToronto
Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me get back into the market
Replies: 40
Views: 7700

Re: Help me get back into the market

Check the two Wikis: Value averaging (DVA): https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Value_averaging (the Wiki presents the original DVA approach with which you can either buy or sell shares depending on the value of your asset vs. your value path; I use the "no-sell DVA" approach). Cost averaging (DCA): htt...
by BenfromToronto
Sat Feb 10, 2018 1:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me get back into the market
Replies: 40
Views: 7700

Re: Help me get back into the market

Dear 67vwbug, I am wondering what you did in late December and how you feel about it 6 weeks later? Reading all the recent posts about market timing vs. ignoring the market gyrations has reinforced my belief that a no-sell Dollar Value Averaging (DVA) strategy is a great compromise: (1) It benefits ...
by BenfromToronto
Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Besides Bogleheads, What Are Your Favorite Forums?
Replies: 113
Views: 22328

Re: Besides Bogleheads, What Are Your Favorite Forums?

https://www.physicianonfire.com/
FIRE = Financially Independence, Retire Early.

Similar to White Coat Investor but I like it better, in particular his "Sunday Best", a brief list of the best posts from other financial forums, every Sunday.
by BenfromToronto
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: investing in taxable accounts
Replies: 10
Views: 2122

Re: investing in taxable accounts

I buy BRKB (Berkshire Hathaway) stock. Berkshire Hathaway never pays any dividends and so it grows tax-deferred until you decide to sell and to pay capital gains at a lower rate. If you do not sell ever, upon your death, your heir will get a step-up basis and no tax needs to be paid ever... In terms...
by BenfromToronto
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any of you trade just a little as a hobby?
Replies: 65
Views: 8717

Re: Any of you trade just a little as a hobby?

As discussed in a similar thread recently, buying and selling individual stocks is a form of gambling and it is fine to do “for fun” as a hobby. After I read Bogle’s books about 25 years ago and I got converted to a strategy of buying and holding the entire market, it was very hard for me to keep "d...
by BenfromToronto
Sun Nov 19, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 16792

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

"But $10 - $15K a year for health insurance? And that's just the premium? Costs go up if I actually need it? That is hard to swallow and a really big hurdle for retirement around 50 years old." For couples in their 50s, health insurance premiums alone often run $25,000-$30,000 per year. That's the ...
by BenfromToronto
Sun Nov 19, 2017 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 16792

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

Every time this type of topic is created, literally zero new information or strategy is put forth. Here is a strategy that should work for most real black swans (it will not work for a nuclear holocaust or may not work for an alien invasion :? ): buy a farm (you can use as a vacation home). In the ...
by BenfromToronto
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any of you trade just a little as a hobby?
Replies: 65
Views: 8717

Re: Any of you trade just a little as a hobby?

Yes, it is like gambling. However, after I got converted to a strategy of buying and holding the entire market, it was very hard for me "to do nothing." Watching my wealth grow slowly as the market went up (and down), felt like watching a tree grow. So, about 20 years ago, to resist the urge of doin...
by BenfromToronto
Sat Nov 04, 2017 4:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me get back into the market
Replies: 40
Views: 7700

Re: Help me get back into the market

:happy As pointed out by some of the posts immediate investment might be best but for you I suggest Value cost averaging/ IT should work out fairly well and perhaps more important give you confidence you are doing the right thing I actually think the investopedia link is clearer than the Boglehead w...
by BenfromToronto
Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Timing with Total Stock Market ETF
Replies: 21
Views: 2238

Re: Timing with Total Stock Market ETF

I can't believe a genius mind/statistician has not tried to exploit up and down market swings to his or her advantage. What is the informed consensus here? Timing doesn't work period. No matter which way?? I agree with other Bogleheads that market timing does not work unless one is lucky because, w...
by BenfromToronto
Sun Oct 22, 2017 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?
Replies: 47
Views: 5176

Re: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?

... What do you think ? I think it would be better, in terms of forum organization, if you limited your question, and everybody else limited their answers, to the (so far 24-reply, not including your own) thread you referred to that you already started . PJW Thank you for the advice. I agree and I ...
by BenfromToronto
Sun Oct 22, 2017 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?
Replies: 47
Views: 5176

Re: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?

If we all agree that one cannot predict the market, why do we keep trying doing it? Because it is unsatisfactory and unpleasant to keep investing in a hot market when one believes it is overvalued -- e.g., by using a Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy. On the other hand, there is the fear of missi...
by BenfromToronto
Sun Oct 22, 2017 5:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Time to reach 1M and 2M milestones
Replies: 171
Views: 63919

Re: Time to reach 1M and 2M milestones

Yes, the first $M in investment was the hardest: 14 years and 6 months (starting in July 1984; the first $100K took 6 years). Second: 5 years Third: 1 year and 9 months Fourth: 6 years 6 months (after going back to $1.8M during the sub-prime crash of 2007-2009) Fifth: 1 year and 6 months Sixth: 1 ye...
by BenfromToronto
Sun Oct 22, 2017 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I believe one can beat the market with a simple contrarian strategy. Am I a fool?
Replies: 32
Views: 5104

Re: I believe one can beat the market with a simple contrarian strategy. Am I a fool?

I am sorry I don’t know how to quote the original posts in my response. Use the quotation mark symbol at the top right corner of the respective post. Got it. Thank you! So what you do with your new contributions won't matter that much anymore (unless you earn much much more today), so you don't rea...
by BenfromToronto
Sun Oct 22, 2017 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I believe one can beat the market with a simple contrarian strategy. Am I a fool?
Replies: 32
Views: 5104

Re: I believe one can beat the market with a simple contrarian strategy. Am I a fool?

smesman is right: a value averaging strategy will underperform a DCA strategy if the market keeps going down forever without ever recovering. This type of doomsday scenario does not preoccupy me because if it happens, we will all become much poorer. I didn't say it kept going down "forever". It may...
by BenfromToronto
Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do you LBYM? Why do you save and invest?
Replies: 204
Views: 19951

Re: Why do you LBYM? Why do you save and invest?

It's simple. Freedom and choices. Money is earned with hard work. I will be damned if I will give away my hard work by being a fool. I feel like a fool if I overpay. I do not like feeling like a fool. LBYM is a strategy that leads to economic freedom, a reverence for simplicity (the things that act...
by BenfromToronto
Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I believe one can beat the market with a simple contrarian strategy. Am I a fool?
Replies: 32
Views: 5104

Re: I believe one can beat the market with a simple contrarian strategy. Am I a fool?

I agree with Jo Money that “nobody knows “what will the next 20+ year period look like.” However, if one decides to invest (as opposed to pile cash under one’s mattress), one needs a plan. My posts were meant to suggest that a DVA strategy is more psychologically pleasing (and usually more lucrative...
by BenfromToronto
Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I believe one can beat the market with a simple contrarian strategy. Am I a fool?
Replies: 32
Views: 5104

Re: I believe one can beat the market with a simple contrarian strategy. Am I a fool?

alpine-boglehead asks: “Was it this strategy that has allowed you to stay the course? (or would you have behaved the same with a fixed DCA strategy?)” For my retirement accounts, I have followed a DCA strategy because the funds available are limited by the legal contributions unless one accumulate c...
by BenfromToronto
Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I believe one can beat the market with a simple contrarian strategy. Am I a fool?
Replies: 32
Views: 5104

Re: I believe one can beat the market with a simple contrarian strategy. Am I a fool?

I am sorry I don’t know how to quote the original posts in my response. smesman is right: a value averaging strategy will underperform a DCA strategy if the market keeps going down forever without ever recovering. This type of doomsday scenario does not preoccupy me because if it happens, we will al...
by BenfromToronto
Sat Oct 21, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I believe one can beat the market with a simple contrarian strategy. Am I a fool?
Replies: 32
Views: 5104

Re: I believe one can beat the market with a simple contrarian strategy. Am I a fool?

Thank you software, smesman, and PolaInvest. As you point out, what I have been doing is indeed a modified value averaging strategy, without any selling and with a maximum on what can be invested in a given month in a given account. So, it seems that I re-invented the wheel – even though some you th...
by BenfromToronto
Sat Oct 21, 2017 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I believe one can beat the market with a simple contrarian strategy. Am I a fool?
Replies: 32
Views: 5104

I believe one can beat the market with a simple contrarian strategy. Am I a fool?

I read a book by John Bogle (Bogle on Mutual Funds) in 1994 and I have been a Bogleheads since then. However, I have discovered this website only a few months ago. While I read posts regularly, I have posted only once. I believe one can beat an index (e.g., S&P500) by implementing a contrarian (“ant...
by BenfromToronto
Sat Jun 03, 2017 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What to do after maxing out all tax advantaged options?
Replies: 33
Views: 4536

Re: What to do after maxing out all tax advantaged options?

I have been a Bogleheads for the past 25 years but I did not discover this forum until a couple of years ago. I finally decided to register today to respond to this post and ask a couple of questions. Once one has maxed out all his or her tax-advantaged accounts, why not buying Berkshire Hathaway st...