Bogleheads.org

tombonneau

Great minds think alike, I use 50/50 fixed income in these two funds also. :sharebeer Dan I was the same. Then combined to just VBILX. Then, after much deliberation, I'm now Intermediate Treasuries only (VSIGX) with higher equity allocation. Just makes logical sense IMO and will keep it that way un...

tombonneau

There were some deep discussions of this in the past that I followed intently. I ended up splitting my fixed allocation to equal parts of each. j :happy Great minds think alike, I use 50/50 fixed income in these two funds also. :sharebeer Dan I was the same. Then combined to just VBILX. Then, after...

tombonneau

There were some deep discussions of this in the past that I followed intently. I ended up splitting my fixed allocation to equal parts of each. j :happy Great minds think alike, I use 50/50 fixed income in these two funds also. :sharebeer Dan I was the same. Then combined to just VBILX. Then, after...

tombonneau

Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares (VNQ) down 7.5% to under $65 iShares Core U.S. REIT ETF (USRT) down 8% to under $36 Any one considering adding more REITs? Will it be ETFs or individual REITs? I have a 10% slot to REITs in my portfolio (VNQ). I hit a rebalance band a while back and balanc...

tombonneau

I have a feeling us REIT holders are going to have plenty more good buying/rebalance opportunities over the next 9-18 months.

tombonneau

Five funds across all accounts (primarily because there isn't a "total international" in 401k, just developed markets) 10% Emerging Markets Index 15% Developed Markets Index 15% TIPS fund 15% Vanguard Intermediate Bond (VBILX) 45% Domestic Stock (Mostly 500 Index / also Total Stock and Ca...

tombonneau

Mine sort-of did. More "hastened" than "changed." Since end of last year I had been giving lots of thought to moving from VBILX Intermediate Bond to pure Intermediate Treasuries and mentally committed to doing it. Which is a little different than physically logging in and making ...

tombonneau

Five funds across all accounts (primarily because there isn't a "total international" in 401k, just developed markets) 10% Emerging Markets Index 15% Developed Markets Index 15% TIPS fund 15% Vanguard Intermediate Bond (VBILX) 45% Domestic Stock (Mostly 500 Index / also Total Stock and Ca...

tombonneau

I feel I saw a blog post or article where someone did the math on something similar to this. Don't quote, might have been Morningstar? Anyway, short of it is that it wouldn't have done as well as the S&P, and in fact IIRC it would have done much worse.

tombonneau

- For the consumer psyche, what is going on is monumental and people won't just revert to their old days once this is over. Similar to the financial crisis, an entire generation will be scarred by this and change their behavior in ways which will not be positive for the economy. This what I'm very ...

tombonneau

If the depth of the trough has been achieved in just 1 month from the cliff, then this time it really is different. But yeah.... nobody knows nothing, at this point. There is a line I heard at the track that always stuck with me: Never bet on a horse to do something it's never done before. Anyone b...

tombonneau

The following is the main reason why the bottom is not yet in: https://abload.de/thumb/peaktotrough81k1g.jpg Not sure why the only post in this entire thread with relevant data hasn't been quoted yet. 8-) If I'm reading this right, the previous record for shortest peak-to-trough of a bear market is...

tombonneau

My Treasury bond funds (long nominal, short TIPS, see sig) are doing what I expected them to do. So I wouldn't say bond funds don't work in a crisis. Certain kinds of bonds don't do well in a crisis, but that's true whether they're in bond funds or not. Precisely. I hope that this helps BHs to unde...

tombonneau

Like some other people, however, I've split my emergency fund up into tiers. Several months of cash, several months of bonds, several months of stocks. This felt like a reasonable compromise between keeping up with inflation and keeping the money fairly stable/liquid. As I've watched a lot of that ...

tombonneau

Corsair wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:16 pm Per Bloomberg the biggest US airliners spent 96% of free cash flow over the last decade on buying back their stock. Now they are asking the US tax payer for $50 billion dollars. Seriously? In a free market they should default on their debts...

Wow. I had no idea the buybacks were that egregious.

tombonneau

technovelist wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:58 am
Sandtrap wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:56 am Vanguard Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index Fund.
Implications?

Should I worry?

j
I wouldn't hold any bonds or other debt instruments that aren't Treasurys.
Maybe I'm being too careful, but I doubt it.

Ditto. Right now BND -1.5% and VGIT +1%.

tombonneau

I was paying attention before. :beer Like I said, I'm no genius, but corporate debt has just has been a bubble screaming to be popped. I promise I'm far less of a genius than you, and I passively collected all of this information. An no lessons to be learned, by the way. Even though this was always...

tombonneau

Another informative piece on Bondaggedon: https://www.ccn.com/corporate-debt-was-a-recession-time-bomb-coronavirus-just-lit-the-fuse/ Morgan Stanley’s Ruchi Sharma estimates that one in six U.S. companies doesn’t have the cash flow to cover its own interest payments. Such firms have been relying on...

tombonneau

Another informative piece on Bondaggedon: https://www.ccn.com/corporate-debt-was-a-recession-time-bomb-coronavirus-just-lit-the-fuse/ Morgan Stanley’s Ruchi Sharma estimates that one in six U.S. companies doesn’t have the cash flow to cover its own interest payments. Such firms have been relying on ...

tombonneau

I'm 90/10 and mathematically you run any scenario for any long duration and the difference between 100/0 even with rebalancing a 90/10 is neglible. IMO the 10 is purely psychological and will eventually make a good starting pointing as you slip into a glide path for retirement. Even watching only 10...

tombonneau

I hold VBILX, it holds 25% in Baa (BBB as rated by S&P) debt which is one level above Junk... if we have a economic crisis, which seems increasingly likely to me due to widespread drop in consumption a large percentage of this debt will probably default. Say 80% of this debt defaults, this fund...

tombonneau

Corporates do better than TBM (and treasuries) in normal markets. Since we don’t know what is coming, TBM positions you for both. Sure, it's a compromise. But if people are complaining that corporates / TBM go down in bear markets -- well, that's the price you pay for getting better performance in ...

tombonneau

VBILX is about 53% gov't bonds as it is, so you'd only be shifting ~5% of your overall AA from investment-grade bonds to Treasuries. I say pull the trigger. The difference is minimal. I hold VGIT (Vanguard Intermediate-Term Gov't) and have been pleased with it, though not nearly as pleased as I wou...

tombonneau

abuss368 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:33 am
tombonneau wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:04 am
abuss368 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:54 am I have found it interesting that REITs have been outperforming the broader market. This may be because investors are looking for yield.
Less underperforming might be more apt.
Diversification

Thanks for jinxing.

tombonneau

VWOB (Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond ETF) is down 7.41% today. The credit risk premium is pretty much like the equity risk premium nowadays. VEMBX Emerging Markets Bond only down 3.42%. +1 for active management. :twisted: It could be the active management part, or the chunk of local curr...

tombonneau

abuss368 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:54 am I have found it interesting that REITs have been outperforming the broader market. This may be because investors are looking for yield.

Less underperforming might be more apt.

tombonneau

VWOB (Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond ETF) is down 7.41% today. The credit risk premium is pretty much like the equity risk premium nowadays. VEMBX Emerging Markets Bond only down 3.42%. +1 for active management. :twisted: VGAVX, the VG Emerging Markets Govt Bond Index fund, was only down...

tombonneau

Thanks, everyone! I'm in total bond market and not about to make any sudden moves - too late with corporate dropping like a rock. But this is good to know for the next time I rethink my AA. I'm not so sure I agree with the bolded . IMO we are closer to the beginning than we are to the end of the co...

tombonneau

YearTrader wrote: ↑Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:41 pm VWOB (Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond ETF) is down 7.41% today.

The credit risk premium is pretty much like the equity risk premium nowadays.

VEMBX Emerging Markets Bond only down 3.42%.

+1 for active management.

tombonneau

Tend to agree with above. Also, everyone seems to swing from extreme to extreme, all in on stock or sell all equities. Why not in between? Set a number and say "if the s&p drops to X I will shift to 85/15 and if it drops to Y I will shift to 90/10" and put it in your IPS. Then you at l...

tombonneau

One of the main problems in the pulls backs we have had in 2018 and the current one, is the violence of it. This is why Corporate Bonds and Aggregate Bonds are looking inadequate as diversifiers during these violent pull backs. Only safe haven, as in 2008 looks to be Treasuries. Case in point today...

tombonneau

Is there a vanguard bond fund that only holds US treasury instruments of varying maturities? Do people here who are holding US govt instruments use bond funds at all or hold them directly? I lingered and hemmed and hawed for months but finally moved from VBILX (50/50 govt Corp) into Intermediate Tr...

tombonneau

Just pulled the trigger. Felt good to be out of corporates. Even though VBILX is IG, 25% is BBB/Baa and who knows what lurks beneath ... tombonneau: Much more important than selecting among two good bond funds, is selecting a stock/fixed-income allocation that you can stick with in corrections and ...

tombonneau

Cruise ships and airlines. Go for it! Let me know how it plays out. If I bought stocks, this is what I would do. Just plow some cash into the top three of each. These are still well run companies with strong fundamentals. People will take cruises again. People will fly again. This isn't rolling the...

tombonneau

VBILX is about 53% gov't bonds as it is, so you'd only be shifting ~5% of your overall AA from investment-grade bonds to Treasuries. I say pull the trigger. The difference is minimal. I hold VGIT (Vanguard Intermediate-Term Gov't) and have been pleased with it, though not nearly as pleased as I wou...

tombonneau

Since reading Swensen & Swedroe late last year, I've really warmed up to shifting from an Intermediate Aggregate Bond (VBILX) into a pure Intermediate Treasury fund (VSIGX). Mostly due to not wanting any corporate bond exposure. And then of course the bonus reason ironically being because of ho...

tombonneau

Since reading Swensen & Swedroe late last year, I've really warmed up to shifting from an Intermediate Aggregate Bond (VBILX) into a pure Intermediate Treasury fund (VSIGX). Mostly due to not wanting any corporate bond exposure. And then of course the bonus reason ironically being because of how...

tombonneau

Figure may as well ask here as I've got the eyeballs of what I consider the two most intelligent bond board posters in @garland and @watchnerd: When I make the exchange over from VBILX to ITTs is there anything I should be aware of for timing-wise so I don't shoot myself in the foot? I'm not referr...

tombonneau

You should be more nervous about the corporate debt bubble. This is my concern. I won't pretend to have any keen insight into how the intricacies of corporate debt, buybacks, etc. work, but I just know I have the same feeling I had working at an internet start-up in 99-00 and when I was at Countryw...

tombonneau

Eagle33 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:52 pm You have optimized your AA when you spend half your time wishing you had more equities, and the other half of your time wishing you had more bonds.

No one ever bet too much money on a winning horse.

tombonneau

I’m a relatively conservative younger accumulator with a high savings rate. Have held a globally diversified 70/30 portfolio for years. After extensive research, last year I moved my bond allocation from Vanguard’s recommended US and international (hedged) index split into 100% long-term U.S. Treas...

tombonneau

I'm 90/10 (mostly VTWAX), 43, modest six-figure portfolio, and I'm left wondering what all the fuss is about for accumulators. I plan to run the numbers and contribute to my 401k funds today or tomorrow per usual. HSA and IRA contributions should hit shortly after. I don't know maybe when I run my s...

tombonneau

Lump sum in the midst of market downswing is great for the econ automatons; less so in the real world for humans and their retirement savings. If it were me, I would set a DCA schedule and just average back in at whatever interval you are comfortable with. For me, I'd probably do four weekly or bi-w...

tombonneau

watchnerd wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:38 am
hagridshut wrote: ↑Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:04 pm I keep a couple weeks worth of non-perishable foods that I eat on a regular basis. The supply gets rotated and resupplied every week.
Isn't resupplying non-perishable food on a weekly basis just grocery shopping?

tombonneau

There was an article on Kitces.com posted a few years ago about re-balancing and that indicates using 20% relative is the sweet spot. https://www.kitces.com/blog/best-opportunistic-rebalancing-frequency-time-horizons-vs-tolerance-band-thresholds/ Great link with some good data. Thanks for passing a...

tombonneau

Well, I officially crossed $500k net worth today. I immediately started thinking of how excited I was about getting to $100k in 2007 - it was so much fun, I did it again in 2011. Upvoted for joke and username. :beer How many years did it take you to $100k? I've got $42k and hoping for 100 in 5 year...

tombonneau

Independent George wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:31 pm Well, I officially crossed $500k net worth today. I immediately started thinking of how excited I was about getting to $100k in 2007 - it was so much fun, I did it again in 2011.

Upvoted for joke and username.

tombonneau

Not sure if it's been posted on this thread, but this game is:

a) A fun time-waster;
b) A sobering (and free!) realization that it's impossible to time the market

https://www.personalfinanceclub.com/tim ... rket-game/

tombonneau

If two of Google, Apple, Amazon or Microsoft were ex-US, these threads would never happen. S&P is so top-heavy that betting on US-only is basically like betting on two companies. In 20-30 years the top 5 companies will 100% be different. Some Black Mirror company is plugging a chip into your te...

tombonneau

If two of Google, Apple, Amazon or Microsoft were ex-US, these threads would never happen. S&P is so top-heavy that betting on US-only is basically like betting on two companies. In 20-30 years the top 5 companies will 100% be different. Some Black Mirror company is plugging a chip into your tem...

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