Search found 143 matches

by Seasonal
Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6752
Views: 1469454

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Okay but even then I don’t see a problem. I was actually panicking in January and the market was shooting up. That is bad news for accumulators. A market that is going sideways is excellent for savers. That depends entirely on what the market does in the future. For example, if the market is down b...
by Seasonal
Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Futures looking rough today..another RBD
Replies: 5
Views: 1046

Re: Futures looking rough today..another RBD

livesoft wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:31 am
Hmmm, what I see doesn't look at all that bad. Since we cannot predict the future, I will do so anyways: It could turn out to just be a normal day in the markets.
I wonder what the correlation is between 7:30 am (NYSE time) futures and closing prices.
by Seasonal
Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard site is crashed now?
Replies: 188
Views: 17014

Re: Vanguard site is crashed now?

sport wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:51 pm
Vanguard has millions of account owners. If a substantial percentage of them try to access the web site at the same time, that would be enough to bring down most any site.
Apparently it was not enough to bring down other sites with millions of account owners, such as Fidelity.
by Seasonal
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard site is crashed now?
Replies: 188
Views: 17014

Re: Vanguard site is crashed now?

I just logged in and got:
Your account information is temporarily unavailable

We apologize for the inconvenience. Please try again later, or contact us for assistance
With a list of contact information.
by Seasonal
Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:04 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Happy Birthday, Taylor!
Replies: 84
Views: 5283

Re: Happy Birthday, Taylor!

Happy Birthday!

All the best.
by Seasonal
Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard Tax Forms Now Online
Replies: 39
Views: 3326

Re: Vanguard Tax Forms Now Online

Seasonal wrote:
Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:53 pm
I'm getting "Tax information is temporarily unavailable. Please try again later or contact us." at the moment when I try to download my forms.

Anyone else?

Perhaps Vanguard heard livesoft.
It just worked for me.
by Seasonal
Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard Tax Forms Now Online
Replies: 39
Views: 3326

Re: Vanguard Tax Forms Now Online

I'm getting "Tax information is temporarily unavailable. Please try again later or contact us." at the moment when I try to download my forms.

Anyone else?

Perhaps Vanguard heard livesoft.
by Seasonal
Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are Password Managers Really Necessary?
Replies: 129
Views: 8730

Re: Are Password Managers Really Necessary?

In practice we know otherwise. Proof? Just google "Password Manager breach" and read about the breaches at OnePass, LastLogin, etc. Some of the most secure banks have been hacked along with one of the big-three credit report agencies - google "breach", "hacked", etc and you can find lots of stories...
by Seasonal
Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:44 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Misuse of adverse when averse was meant
Replies: 149
Views: 10144

Re: Misuse of adverse when averse was meant

I'll take the position that the purpose of language is to communicate and most of the mistakes noted in this thread don't have an adverse affect on the meaning of the statements in which they are used. It's a rare case when using adverse rather than averse will result in the reader not understanding...
by Seasonal
Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Medicare Medical Insurance
Replies: 21
Views: 1616

Re: Medicare Medical Insurance

You have perhaps not noticed that you have been prepaying Medicare from each of your paychecks for decades. That's a common misconception. Medicare, like Social Security, is a pay-as-it-goes system. Current workers and employers pay for current beneficiaries. There is no prepayment, or 'lockbox', t...
by Seasonal
Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investment Implications of the Tax Bill - Morningstar on FIFO, etc.
Replies: 11
Views: 1451

Re: Investment Implications of the Tax Bill - Morningstar on FIFO, etc.

FIFO or mandated average cost are ideas that keeps coming up every year or two. I'm starting to make decisions based on the assumption that it will likely become law someday. After how we got to where we are, I'm very comfortable just assuming that current law will remain current law for the next 8...
by Seasonal
Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average
Replies: 92
Views: 6165

Re: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average

Yes, if you read someone writing in the context of finance you see the term used differently than it is, for example here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean.... I can only comment that one must be very careful not to throw around terminology without full consideration of the context and ...
by Seasonal
Wed Dec 20, 2017 9:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]
Replies: 886
Views: 60841

Re: Tax Bill Omnibus Thread

Asset allocation is another issue. I've heard predictions that some investments will benefit from tax reform, while others, such as high-yield bonds, may decline. Not sure that I'm ready to make drastic changes in my AA, without understanding the issues. Don't make any changes to your AA in respons...
by Seasonal
Wed Dec 20, 2017 6:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]
Replies: 886
Views: 60841

Re: Tax Bill Omnibus Thread

Any change for holders of national muni funds in high-tax states? I'm still trying to wrap my mind around the state deduction cap, but like say for instance you're going to go over the cap, and make significant money from Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax Exempt - might it be wise to switch to the Cal...
by Seasonal
Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average
Replies: 92
Views: 6165

Re: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average

Just an added comment. Just because compound growth of an investment is a geometric series does not mean CAGR is the geometric mean return. It is not. Note that in an article like this one: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/geometricmean.asp they use geometric mean in investing with a dif...
by Seasonal
Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average
Replies: 92
Views: 6165

Re: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average

I don't think it's all that great an article. 1) "Geometric mean" is basically but not exactly the same thing as "CAGR" (Compound average growth rate)* so if you see anything reported as CAGR, that's the honest, fair number. The article, incidentally, mixes up the two concepts. What's the differenc...
by Seasonal
Wed Dec 20, 2017 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]
Replies: 886
Views: 60841

Re: Tax Bill Omnibus Thread

It might be too early for this question but I would guess that many of us will be moving from the 28 to the new 24% bracket. If using a three-fund in taxable, would the general recommendation be to use total bond instead of Muni's for the 24% bracket and below? Are you subject to state taxes? How c...
by Seasonal
Wed Dec 20, 2017 2:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]
Replies: 886
Views: 60841

Re: Tax Bill Omnibus Thread

Are the new estate tax exemptions permament, or do they grandfather in some future year? Are they adjusted for inflation? They could always be changed by a future amendment. My understanding is "similar to the last round of major tax law changes, includes a “sunset” provision that all of the indivi...
by Seasonal
Wed Dec 20, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]
Replies: 886
Views: 60841

Re: Tax Bill Omnibus Thread

Does this affect Roth conversion strategy or timing? I'd think the only issues would be that (1) the changes in tax brackets may change the amounts converted in 2018, etc. at the margins and (2) the elimination of Roth re-characterization may limit some cleverness, but am wondering if there are othe...
by Seasonal
Wed Dec 20, 2017 7:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Availability of health care providers - how to factor this in a move?
Replies: 77
Views: 5270

Re: Availability of health care providers - how to factor this in a move?

Since we haven't planned to move I haven't checked things out thoroughly, but the correlation between cost of living and quality of medical care seems to be surprisingly loose. I was surprised to find out that Iowa, for example, is among the better states for medical care. What are you using to ran...
by Seasonal
Mon Dec 18, 2017 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Bond principal-at-maturity myth
Replies: 14
Views: 1913

Re: Vanguard: Bond principal-at-maturity myth

The increase in pricing transparency they anticipate next year could alleviate one major problem with buying individual bonds- facing huge markups. I must have missed something. What are you referring to? Brokers will have to disclose markups to retail customers in many cases. https://advisorhub.co...
by Seasonal
Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Bond principal-at-maturity myth
Replies: 14
Views: 1913

Re: Vanguard: Bond principal-at-maturity myth

Except that there is considerable value in holding individual TIPS to maturity, since that's the only way to use them to protect against inflation. TIPS bond funds don't. Why ignore this? Both individual TIPS and TIPS funds increase in value over time to reflect the inflation protection adjustment....
by Seasonal
Sun Dec 17, 2017 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Bond principal-at-maturity myth
Replies: 14
Views: 1913

Vanguard: Bond principal-at-maturity myth

"The principal-at-maturity myth, this assumes that there’s an economic benefit to holding individual bonds to maturity. Now, the key word here is economic. And we generally hear this when there’s a risk of a higher-interest-rate environment. But irrespective of whether you own individual bonds or a ...
by Seasonal
Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A Trip to Russia
Replies: 81
Views: 5430

Re: A Trip to Russia

There are many suggestions in this thread to use a guide. How would we go about finding an excellent guide?

Our main interests are art and architecture. Seeing the Hermitage, palaces and the like would be our main reason to got to St Petersburg.
by Seasonal
Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What cause BH fear about running out of saving though they have big size of asset?
Replies: 27
Views: 2148

Re: What cause BH fear about running out of saving though they have big size of asset?

What cause BH fear about running out of saving though they have big size of asset? I see many BH have multi millions but still worry about money. What about for the people without savings at all? Haven't seen so many of them crying for money. The question isn't asset size, it's assets compared to e...
by Seasonal
Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 4649

Re: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?

livesoft wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:01 am
That experience gave me the courage to do what I wanted to with bonds. That's because any bad consequences could be overcome by waiting, but good consequences made me feel good.
Is good is a higher current portfolio value or a higher yield, indicating a higher future portfolio value?
by Seasonal
Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 4649

Re: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?

TIPS are also pretty low right now. VIPSX has a 0.2% SEC yield. FWIW, in the FI portion of my portfolio I have 50% intermediate bonds (IG IT, using VFIDX). The other 50% is less inflation sensitive: short term investment grade (VFSUX) and older iBonds keepers. Total average duration = 3.7 years. Wh...
by Seasonal
Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard switching all accounts to brokerage accounts?
Replies: 90
Views: 16106

Re: Why is Vanguard switching all accounts to brokerage accounts?

If I have both traditional and brokerage accounts and can I transfer funds from brokerage to traditional?

It sounds as if the only complaint about brokerage is reporting tax? EDIT: and those in Sprinman's post immediately above this.
by Seasonal
Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would a Bitcoin Crash affect the general markets?
Replies: 25
Views: 2255

Re: Would a Bitcoin Crash affect the general markets?

My limited knowledge of bitcoin see it simply as a hyped-up and speculative currency with no ties to anything of real value. What (if anything) would a crash do to the general stock market? If Bitcoin is currently capitalized at around $300bn the loss of that money is trivial (less than half the ma...
by Seasonal
Mon Dec 04, 2017 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than People Think
Replies: 142
Views: 15244

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than People Think

When rates rise, principle value falls, but the additional interest more than makes up for the temporary dip after a bit. It's not "a bit", it's many years. My understanding is that the number of years is 2 X d - 1 where d is the duration, so for something like BND, it can take 11 years to earn the...
by Seasonal
Mon Dec 04, 2017 6:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Who keeps more money out of 100k? Self-employed vs Employed?
Replies: 39
Views: 3524

Re: Who keeps more money out of 100k? Self-employed vs Employed?

Are you looking at nominal salary or the total value of salary plus benefits? A typical employee with a 100k salary would receive total compensation of more than 100k, while a self-employed person with 100k in income is receiving 100k in total compensation. Total compensation for an employee would t...
by Seasonal
Thu Nov 30, 2017 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than People Think
Replies: 142
Views: 15244

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than People Think

When rates rise, principle value falls, but the additional interest more than makes up for the temporary dip after a bit. It's not "a bit", it's many years. My understanding is that the number of years is 2 X d - 1 where d is the duration, so for something like BND, it can take 11 years to earn the...
by Seasonal
Thu Nov 30, 2017 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than People Think
Replies: 142
Views: 15244

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than People Think

Bonds are safer for longer term investors than people think. When rates rise, principle value falls, but the additional interest more than makes up for the temporary dip after a bit. In that sense, they are self-correcting. The exception is if you're spending (rather than reinvesting) a significant ...
by Seasonal
Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?
Replies: 149
Views: 18470

Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Granted, he “saw the light” nearly 4 years ago, when BTC was $114. He bought $10K worth. I’m thinking it might be time to take some profits. He is a working stiff, but also a business man and a smart one at that. His opinion is that if if it goes to zero, $10K won’t break him, but if he sells, he m...
by Seasonal
Mon Nov 27, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CNBC says Vanguard says 70% Chance of "Correction"
Replies: 63
Views: 8899

Re: CNBC says Vanguard says 70% Chance of "Correction"

Whew, It is about time. Great Opportunity to pick up shares at lower prices :) Prices might be lower because the market correctly forecasts lower returns going forward. Lower prices can mean better value (the same thing is on sale) or worse value (a damaged thing is on sale and the price hasn't dro...
by Seasonal
Mon Nov 27, 2017 1:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Google Project Fi - "Device Protection" problem
Replies: 41
Views: 3894

Re: Google Project Fi - "Device Protection" problem

OP here. Received the Moto X4 today (at my expense); will activate this afternoon. Sending the Nexus 5X back and Google's insurance company is supposed to send me $59 when they receive it. Spent a couple hours putting my case together for the complaint to PA Attorney General's office. Had my wife p...
by Seasonal
Sun Nov 26, 2017 9:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Google Project Fi - "Device Protection" problem
Replies: 41
Views: 3894

Re: Google Project Fi - "Device Protection"

There are numerous complaints on reddit and google's forums about this. For example, https://www.reddit.com/r/ProjectFi/comm ... _a_proper/ and the linked google thread.
by Seasonal
Sat Nov 25, 2017 7:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Etiquette question: going out to dinner with friends and how to split the bill
Replies: 86
Views: 6409

Re: Etiquette question: going out to dinner with friends and how to split the bill

Thanks to miamivice to inspire me to ask the following question: What do you do when you go out to dinner with friends? We typically split the bill without regard to what people order, drink etc. I do not like it because I feel limited as that I typically like the rib eye or filet and have 2-3 glas...
by Seasonal
Sat Nov 25, 2017 2:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are average incomes for luxury vehicle purchases? Will help me decide
Replies: 57
Views: 4723

Re: What are average incomes for luxury vehicle purchases? Will help me decide

Don't do it. There are 100 reasons. You'll thank me later. Don't do WHAT? We have no dollar figures from the OP to work with. Perhaps his question would be better phrased in the form: We have a MFJ AGI of $180k, are saving 30% of gross income for retirement and have financial assets presently at th...
by Seasonal
Sat Nov 25, 2017 12:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The fallacy of spending money on "experiences" vs hard assets
Replies: 336
Views: 21610

Re: The fallacy of spending money on "experiences" vs hard assets

I tend to find conversations that include discussions of the art seen in Italy, the food in Paris, the landscape in Yosemite, etc. much more interesting than conversations about the joy of a new phone, car, etc. Vacations, museums, hikes are often new experiences. After owning something for a while,...
by Seasonal
Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Uber for someone who knows only taxis
Replies: 93
Views: 7042

Re: Uber for someone who knows only taxis

Google maps has tabs for Uber and Lyft, so you can easily compare estimates of wait times and prices, and you can launch the apps from there. Also install the apps. There is almost always some promo discount for new users, so google for that before signing up. I tend to use Lyft. Just about every dr...
by Seasonal
Sun Nov 19, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Benefits of Flagship
Replies: 38
Views: 6825

Re: Benefits of Flagship

I called about an account action I couldn't do online a week ago and got the designated rep. To be honest its the first time I've called Vanguard in about 5 years. I asked her about the future of dedicated Flagship representatives and she replied "it's complicated". I had thought Vanguard was movin...
by Seasonal
Sun Nov 19, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Benefits of Flagship
Replies: 38
Views: 6825

Re: Benefits of Flagship

DrGoogle2017 wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:39 am
I try to avoid my flagship representative as much as I can, I’m happy to push a button to talk to somebody else. But I think it beats calling the regular number.
If you're not happy with your flagship rep, it should be possible to get a different one. Talk to a supervisor.
by Seasonal
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 162
Views: 21371

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

Well, we can do a simulation. You weren't too specific, but let's say we are talking about a rotating bond ladder with a duration of 6 years, i.e. about the same as Total Bond, under a scenario where the rate that applies to the bonds in the ladder start out at 2% and rise to 6% over a period of fo...
by Seasonal
Sat Nov 18, 2017 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods
Replies: 28
Views: 2650

Re: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods

Why are you limiting yourself to these two methods? If you're looking for a guess as to the future, using p/e ratios (either regular or Shiller's CAPE) does better according to many papers, including Vanguard's https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/s338.pdf Any forecast can be off by a lot over any time...
by Seasonal
Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?
Replies: 24
Views: 3001

Re: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?

Perhaps I'm reading too quickly, but where do they show that US treasuries are safer than German bunds, or U.K. gilts, or Japanese government bonds? Interest rates on some of these have been lower than Treasury rates in the not too distant past. Just to point out that relative interest rates on gov...
by Seasonal
Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tipping for restaurants where you order at the counter
Replies: 126
Views: 20170

Re: Tipping for restaurants where you order at the counter

One of the "standard" advice matters on tipping at restaurants I find both puzzling and that I strongly disagree with is the percentage of the bill tip. I have seen, numerous times, that you should tip a higher percentage of the bill at higher cost places. Following that advice, if a meal for, say,...
by Seasonal
Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?
Replies: 24
Views: 3001

Re: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?

Perhaps I'm reading too quickly, but where do they show that US treasuries are safer than German bunds, or U.K. gilts, or Japanese government bonds? Interest rates on some of these have been lower than Treasury rates in the not too distant past. One of their fundamental assumptions seems wrong to me...
by Seasonal
Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Isn't it safer to NOT sign Credit card?
Replies: 97
Views: 8007

Re: Isn't it safer to NOT sign Credit card?

My check book never leaves my home. It is typically in my safe. If a thief got ahold of that, I would have bigger problems than them having a sample of my signature. If someone knows your name, account number and bank routing number, they can print checks. Whenever you write someone a check, they g...
by Seasonal
Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 66
Views: 9197

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

As of the moment, 30 yr tips yield is 0.91%, making back about half of the lost yield over the last 2 weeks.