Search found 471 matches

by Seasonal
Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
Replies: 90
Views: 7466

Re: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?

[trimmed because I don't like very long posts with shorter replies] Seriously. What is the generally accepted accounting principle rule for discounting a lie? What is the book value of a lie? Do i list it under assets, liabilities? Does it matter that I can move one to the other because I'm fabrica...
by Seasonal
Mon Oct 21, 2019 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
Replies: 90
Views: 7466

Re: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?

In the words of Gene Fama, inventor of EMH: It’s a very simple statement: prices reflect all available information. Testing that turns out to be more difficult, but it’s a simple hypothesis. https://review.chicagobooth.edu/economics/2016/video/are-markets-efficient A problem with direct testing is ...
by Seasonal
Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
Replies: 90
Views: 7466

Re: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?

Forget EMH. The market is aware of the problems with China. It considers those problems when it sets prices. It may not come up with a price that, in hindsight, is correct. Lots of people think they can do a better job than the market in pricing securities. History has not been kind to the track rec...
by Seasonal
Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected returns from vanguard total bond market
Replies: 19
Views: 2130

Re: Expected returns from vanguard total bond market

The spread between nominal treasuries and TIPS, which is a rough proxy for predicted inflation, is around 1.5-1.6% the 5-10 year range. TBM has an average maturity in that range.
by Seasonal
Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing for the "great sag" - Dalio
Replies: 56
Views: 8211

Re: Investing for the "great sag" - Dalio

What's his track record on making macro-economic forecasts?

Is the "great sag" different from "secular stagnation" which some economists have been predicting for years?
by Seasonal
Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
Replies: 90
Views: 7466

Re: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?

Northern Flicker wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 1:27 am
EMH does say the lack of information is priced in.
We’ll just have to disagree there. Opacity risk is by its nature likely to be mispriced.
The amount of information available is, itself, information.
by Seasonal
Wed Oct 16, 2019 7:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to handle 5M capital gain (post-IPO)
Replies: 102
Views: 8179

Re: How to handle 5M capital gain (post-IPO)

I'd appreciate any thoughts on how you would approach this problem. Would you just sell over time and pay the tax? I have spoken with a couple advisors (fee-only, 1% AUM), who have recommended more exotic strategies such as exchange funds, opportunity zone funds, and covered calls. I'd explore the ...
by Seasonal
Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Doctors charging for things outside of insurance, is this Kosher?
Replies: 55
Views: 5228

Re: Doctors charging for things outside of insurance, is this Kosher?

This is the part I don't get, especially given the reasoning for this "fee". IF you do have the surgery, the surgeon presumably gets paid his/her regular fee (from the insurer and perhaps some from you). WHAT is that extra fee for, if he/she is getting paid the full amount? The surgeon kept the tim...
by Seasonal
Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Doctors charging for things outside of insurance, is this Kosher?
Replies: 55
Views: 5228

Re: Doctors charging for things outside of insurance, is this Kosher?

I've seen many doctors say that if you make an appointment and don't cancel sufficiently in advance, you have to pay some amount, often $50 but sometimes more. This seems no different. It does not seem inconsistent with insurance. The doctor is not charging you in addition to insurance - either you...
by Seasonal
Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
Replies: 90
Views: 7466

Re: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?

But I disagree fundamentally with those who say the market has already accounted for such risks. If it were true that the market could simply accomodate such risks and continue to grow, then there would be no point to market regulation at all. In fact legal systems wouldn't matter. Governments woul...
by Seasonal
Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
Replies: 90
Views: 7466

Re: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?

motorcyclesarecool wrote:
Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:19 am
The real question is whether you’re being sufficiently remunerated for the risk you’re taking.
Exactly. Put another way, the market is aware of the risk and has priced Chinese stocks (and other investments) to take the risk into account.
by Seasonal
Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is class action settlement taxable income?
Replies: 8
Views: 649

Re: Is class action settlement taxable income?

As above, it depends on the claim. If you're being paid due to some injury to person or property, it's probably not taxable. If you're being paid because they didn't do something they should have and what they should have would be taxable (e.g., they didn't pay wages or dividends they owed you), it'...
by Seasonal
Mon Oct 14, 2019 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Doctors charging for things outside of insurance, is this Kosher?
Replies: 55
Views: 5228

Re: Doctors charging for things outside of insurance, is this Kosher?

I've seen many doctors say that if you make an appointment and don't cancel sufficiently in advance, you have to pay some amount, often $50 but sometimes more. This seems no different. It does not seem inconsistent with insurance. The doctor is not charging you in addition to insurance - either you ...
by Seasonal
Mon Oct 14, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I can't find the Amazon help page, that lets me call them.
Replies: 17
Views: 833

Re: I can't find the Amazon help page, that lets me call them.

It was a $65 item that was not delivered. I am wondering if it is worth the time to deal with this. Still on hold. Talked to the woman a second time and she said she had to talk to a supervisor. What would you do? Does the delivery company's tracking service show it as delivered? I usually use chat...
by Seasonal
Fri Oct 11, 2019 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replace water heater just because it's old?
Replies: 73
Views: 5573

Replace water heater just because it's old?

Would you replace a 13 year old water heater that seems to be working without any problems?

Many say replace every 10-12 years, especially if a leak would be a major problem. Others say wait for symptoms, such as a rusty water, a leak, rumbling.
by Seasonal
Wed Oct 09, 2019 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I download Android 10?
Replies: 12
Views: 709

Re: Should I download Android 10?

I've been using it on my Pixel 2 since launch with no real problems. There was an update Monday that fixed a number of problems that others faced. I'd go for it.

The gesture navigation was remarkably easy to get used to, but is optional in case you don't like it.
by Seasonal
Tue Oct 08, 2019 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fama French: momentum lacks theoretical motivation
Replies: 27
Views: 1822

Re: Fama French: momentum lacks theoretical motivation

Digestion: there are very real dangers of data mining when trying to model investments. With digestion, there are a lot more data and there's the opportunity to run controlled experiments. It's not really a fitting response. Perhaps, but that still doesn't mean that we should simply dismiss empiric...
by Seasonal
Tue Oct 08, 2019 5:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fama French: momentum lacks theoretical motivation
Replies: 27
Views: 1822

Re: Fama French: momentum lacks theoretical motivation

Digestion: there are very real dangers of data mining when trying to model investments. With digestion, there are a lot more data and there's the opportunity to run controlled experiments. It's not really a fitting response.
by Seasonal
Mon Oct 07, 2019 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fama French: momentum lacks theoretical motivation
Replies: 27
Views: 1822

Fama French: momentum lacks theoretical motivation

Am I reading this correctly: "Fama-French on #momentum: "We include momentum factors (somewhat reluctantly) now to satisfy insistent popular demand. We worry, however, that opening the game to factors that seem empirically robust but lack theoretical motivation has a destructive downside...” JFE2018...
by Seasonal
Fri Oct 04, 2019 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's "Rules of Prudent Investing"
Replies: 32
Views: 4308

Re: Larry Swedroe's "Rules of Prudent Investing"

Good list. Some quibbles: #2: I doubt anyone fully understands the nature of all of the risks. Equities are risky no matter how long you hold them or how much discipline you have. Bonds are likely less risky. What else do you really need to know? #8, 9: I wonder what he'd recommend today. #14: Acade...
by Seasonal
Fri Oct 04, 2019 5:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Over Confident in Old-age: Cognitive Decline and Financial Literacy
Replies: 83
Views: 7433

Re: Over Confident in Old-age: Cognitive Decline and Financial Literacy

I've talked to people who are sure they have adequate cognitive ability, but who can't remember things we discussed ten minutes ago. Many deny the seriousness of their problems or claim they will be able to recognize their own decline well past the point they should have recognized the problem. Stan...
by Seasonal
Wed Oct 02, 2019 3:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable annuity, trusts, Medicaid
Replies: 4
Views: 502

Re: Variable annuity, trusts, Medicaid

There's usually no good solution to an investment-type annuity. If you (or your beneficiary) cash it in all at once, it may bunch the income. If you keep it, you'll continue to incur the expenses of the annuity (often 2.5% or 3% a year), and you'll continue to convert the future income and gains to...
by Seasonal
Tue Oct 01, 2019 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable annuity, trusts, Medicaid
Replies: 4
Views: 502

Re: Variable annuity, trusts, Medicaid

Leaving the VA to the spouse in trust won't remove it from Medicaid consideration. I was under the impression that assets in an irrevocable trust for the benefit of a person, when that person does not control the disposition of the trusts assets, does not count as that person's assets for purposes ...
by Seasonal
Mon Sep 30, 2019 10:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable annuity, trusts, Medicaid
Replies: 4
Views: 502

Variable annuity, trusts, Medicaid

A spouse owns a non-qualified variable annuity listing the non-owner spouse as a beneficiary (and their children as secondary beneficiaries). The owner's will leaves everything to the spouse in trust. On the second to die, the children would inherit. If I understand correctly: Upon the death of the ...
by Seasonal
Sun Sep 29, 2019 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Capital gains tax on sale of home in trust
Replies: 4
Views: 336

Re: Capital gains tax on sale of home in trust

The will basically says that all of the owner's property will be placed in trust for the benefit of the spouse, to be distributed in the trustee's discretion, subject to a provision that if the surviving spouse would be entitled to Medicaid or other programs, the trust shall become a supplemental ne...
by Seasonal
Sun Sep 29, 2019 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Capital gains tax on sale of home in trust
Replies: 4
Views: 336

Capital gains tax on sale of home in trust

House is owned by one spouse and is the primary residence for both spouses (although the owner is currently in a nursing home). Under the owner's will, the house will go into a trust for the benefit of the other spouse. They live in New York. If the trust sells the house, will the sale qualify for t...
by Seasonal
Fri Sep 13, 2019 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17131

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

had another thought that might be helpful The investment philosophy of basically all at this site is based on belief that markets pretty efficient. If that is so then it amazes me that there are so many who think it doesn't make sense to have higher expected returns to SV vs TSM. Risk adjusted retu...
by Seasonal
Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17131

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

had another thought that might be helpful The investment philosophy of basically all at this site is based on belief that markets pretty efficient. If that is so then it amazes me that there are so many who think it doesn't make sense to have higher expected returns to SV vs TSM. Risk adjusted retu...
by Seasonal
Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 662
Views: 49685

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

(Technically, something worse than the Great Depression, since 4% worked for the Great Depression, and one COULD have continued to take European river cruises) There is no necessary connection between the economy and the market. It's quite possible for one to do well and the other poorly. Only for ...
by Seasonal
Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 662
Views: 49685

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

HomerJ wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:48 pm
(Technically, something worse than the Great Depression, since 4% worked for the Great Depression, and one COULD have continued to take European river cruises)
There is no necessary connection between the economy and the market. It's quite possible for one to do well and the other poorly.
by Seasonal
Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17131

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

BTW, Larry is among those who have noted that if something did better from a risk/return point of view, the market would trade until it reached equilibrium. I don't see why the market would not think about portfolio construction and diversification in that process. Most trading is done on individua...
by Seasonal
Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 662
Views: 49685

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

4% may work or it may not. Having a strong belief either way is more a matter of faith than science. In truth, these discussions about SWRs are largely academic. Virtually everyone is making adjustments to their withdrawals depending on portfolio performance. And even seeming small adjustments can ...
by Seasonal
Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17131

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

Fifth, when thinking about diversification, the portfolio is highly diversified by industry and holds many thousands of stocks, about 5K globally, more than enough to minimize idiosyncratic risk. And in fact from that perspective it could be said to be far more diversified because of the concentrat...
by Seasonal
Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17131

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

To the extent markets are efficient, the cap weighted market portfolio should always be efficient. If there were a better portfolio, the market should move towards that portfolio, raising the price of the better assets, etc. until equilibrium is reached. Markets price assets, not portfolios: there ...
by Seasonal
Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 662
Views: 49685

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

My thought is that a claim that a person retiring today is entering a thirty year period of worse conditions for retirement that any other thirty year period in the last hundred years or so is an extraordinary claim and an extraordinary feat of long term forecasting that requires extraordinary supp...
by Seasonal
Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17131

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

Fifth, when thinking about diversification, the portfolio is highly diversified by industry and holds many thousands of stocks, about 5K globally, more than enough to minimize idiosyncratic risk. And in fact from that perspective it could be said to be far more diversified because of the concentrat...
by Seasonal
Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trouble logging on to Vanguard in the last week...
Replies: 14
Views: 1297

Re: Trouble logging on to Vanguard in the last week...

Usual advice: try a different browser, try a different computer (or tablet or phone), clear cookies, try a different network (e.g., cell service rather than home network).

If something works and something else doesn't, you may have identified the problem.
by Seasonal
Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax breach settlement update?
Replies: 49
Views: 4249

Re: Equifax breach settlement update?

I just got an email purporting from the Equifax breach settlement folks, asking me to confirm that I do have credit monitoring in place as I said in my initial claim for $125. Does anyone know if this email is indeed legitimate? I am always wary about clicking on embedded links in emails I get as t...
by Seasonal
Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 662
Views: 49685

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

Sure it's possible... but has he made a case that it's likely? Has he convinced you that you should prepare for the Great Depression II and 30% unemployment and bread-lines? Terrible economic conditions are neither necessary nor sufficient for terrible returns. Lots of capital chasing returns or an...
by Seasonal
Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17131

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

Like all factors/asset classes value has had long periods of poor performance in past, just like market beta. Which argues for diversifcation across unique sources of risk, not abandoning value. Nothing new here and yet so many people are ready (based on small recency sample) to abandon strategies ...
by Seasonal
Sun Sep 08, 2019 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?
Replies: 149
Views: 11582

Re: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?

Will do good wrote:
Sun Sep 08, 2019 2:37 pm
Not sure I buy into "This time is different".
The SWR will likely be the same as every other time the 10 year treasury was yielding 1.5% and the S&P 500 had a p/e of 20x. How have things usually worked out with that sort of starting point?
by Seasonal
Sun Sep 08, 2019 4:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First Medicare bill - no IRMAA
Replies: 5
Views: 971

Re: First Medicare bill - no IRMAA

they will catch up eventually. You will likely get a catch up bill and then the normal cycle will include the IRMAA. This was exactly my experience. The initial billing came about 15 days after my Part B effective date. The IRMAA catch-up billing came about 6 weeks later. After that, IRMAA was incl...
by Seasonal
Sun Sep 08, 2019 4:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17131

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

Is there a current accepted passive definition of value by value investors and practitioners? If so, what is it? Book-to-market was easy and clearly passive. It's apparently still used for judging value's performance by practitioners, for example, see Larry's 2018 article https://www.etf.com/section...
by Seasonal
Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules
Replies: 274
Views: 20259

Re: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules

It is literally impossible for us to know with a high degree of confidence that the results of any Monte Carlo analysis (or any other model or simulation) are an accurate representation of the future or that it can accurately measure the probabilities of various future events. Yes The best we can d...
by Seasonal
Sat Sep 07, 2019 8:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First Medicare bill - no IRMAA
Replies: 5
Views: 971

First Medicare bill - no IRMAA

My wife got her first bill from Medicare. They are just charging her the standard premium, with no IRMAA. Earlier she got a letter that she would be charged the IRMAA premium (as expected). Should we just pay the bill as written and wait for another bill? Call them to make sure there's no problem (I...
by Seasonal
Sat Sep 07, 2019 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17131

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

My issue is that value advocates have long and vociferously defended book to market, including claims of a persistent history and working out of sample and including some claims of superiority over p/e or p/cf. It's the defining value characteristic in the Fama French three factor model, which has ...
by Seasonal
Sat Sep 07, 2019 5:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17131

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

The authors only consider book value which was already found to be a poor metric in Quantitative Value (2012). DFA, seemingly the home of value stocks, includes in its value prospectus: "Securities are considered value stocks primarily because a company’s shares have a low price in relation to thei...
by Seasonal
Fri Sep 06, 2019 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17131

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

The authors only consider book value which was already found to be a poor metric in Quantitative Value (2012). DFA, seemingly the home of value stocks, includes in its value prospectus: "Securities are considered value stocks primarily because a company’s shares have a low price in relation to thei...
by Seasonal
Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17131

Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

Abstract: "The business press claims that the long-standing and highly popular value investing strategy—investing in low-valued stocks and selling short high-valued equities—lost its edge since 2007. The reasons for this putative sudden demise of value investing elude investors and academics, making...
by Seasonal
Fri Sep 06, 2019 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules
Replies: 274
Views: 20259

Re: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules

Because it would be completely unprecedented over a long-term period, at least in U.S. history. Yes, there have been periods where 5 year or 10 year Treasuries had zero or negative real returns, but never over anything remotely approaching 50 years. Since 1970, the longest holding period where inte...