Search found 1952 matches

by Seasonal
Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cancelling Old Credit Card Effect on Credit Score
Replies: 16
Views: 952

Re: Cancelling Old Credit Card Effect on Credit Score

What effect will canceling the old card in general have on my credit score and its effect on insurance renewal rates? A factor in credit scores is your percentage utilization - how much of your total credit line you are using. If you cancel a card your total credit line goes down and, all else bein...
by Seasonal
Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTWAX price change compared to VTIAX/VTSAX
Replies: 4
Views: 377

Re: VTWAX price change compared to VTIAX/VTSAX

When there is an unusual drop in price, especially near the end of a quarter, you should check to see if the drop is due to a dividend.

If it's not that, I don't know.

https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/DIVDAT_092020.pdf
by Seasonal
Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Doctor disclosure and consent
Replies: 33
Views: 2119

Doctor disclosure and consent

I recently saw a dermatologist to have a minor skin cancer removed. That seemed to go well. As part of the suture removal visit, I had a full body scan. The doctor said I had a pre-cancerous growth on my body and it should be removed promptly. He picks up a can of liquid nitrogen and asks "ok?". I s...
by Seasonal
Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?
Replies: 4775
Views: 919261

Re: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?

One more question: How long a period a time will the 80k Sapphire Preferred bonus last? Can anyone venture a guess based on past windows of time? I wanted to stagger mine and DW's so that we can hit our spend naturally. I would like to wait a month before she gets it, if possible. November 8, https...
by Seasonal
Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Don’t understand when to pay taxes new retiree
Replies: 42
Views: 3208

Re: Don’t understand when to pay taxes new retiree

The easiest thing to do is pay estimated taxes at 100% of the prior year's taxes in four equal installments (110% if AGI was over $150,000, or over $75,000 if married filing separately). This is simple and avoids penalties. I'd do this unless you expect this year's income to be much lower than last ...
by Seasonal
Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio issues stark warning about US dollar’s future as global reserve currency
Replies: 42
Views: 3357

Re: Ray Dalio issues stark warning about US dollar’s future as global reserve currency

Valuethinker wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:41 am The Renimbi is a controlled currency so it is difficult to "invest" in it?
Controlled means the Chinese central bank restricts the range in which it trades, not that you can't buy it.
by Seasonal
Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio issues stark warning about US dollar’s future as global reserve currency
Replies: 42
Views: 3357

Re: Ray Dalio issues stark warning about US dollar’s future as global reserve currency

Based on his latest 13F Filings with the SEC, he increased his stakes in these positions: SPY - SPDR S&P 500 ETF GLD - SPDR Gold Trust FXI - iShares China Large-Cap ETF BABA - Alibaba MCHI - iShares MSCI China ETF The S&P 500 seems an odd investment to increase for someone recommending diversifying...
by Seasonal
Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio issues stark warning about US dollar’s future as global reserve currency
Replies: 42
Views: 3357

Re: Ray Dalio issues stark warning about US dollar’s future as global reserve currency

I remember an incredible amount of ink that was spilled over the S&P downgrading Treasury bonds from AAA to AA+. There was all kind of rhetoric about how nobody knew what would happen but it was sure to be ugly. My recollection is that the reaction to the S&P downgrading US treasuries was a quick f...
by Seasonal
Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Record date vs. Reinvest ex-dividend date?
Replies: 14
Views: 489

Re: Record date vs. Reinvest ex-dividend date?

Hypothetical: Let’s say a fund closes at $100 a share on the Record date, but $99 on the Reinvest ex-dividend date. My question is only: Which, out of those two numbers on the two different dates, will my dividends buy/be reinvested at? The record date, or the reinvest ex-div date? That’s where I’m...
by Seasonal
Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed, Snowflake, and Stocks
Replies: 42
Views: 4205

Re: The Fed, Snowflake, and Stocks

The hardest thing for most of us to accept is that understanding a few things about the economy in no way justifies an opinion about market direction. There are mountains of data and hundreds of different market segments (obv am thinking beyond the industry segments) that all have their own intraca...
by Seasonal
Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio issues stark warning about US dollar’s future as global reserve currency
Replies: 42
Views: 3357

Re: Ray Dalio issues stark warning about US dollar’s future as global reserve currency

You may want to consider https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=325552 People have been issuing stark warnings similar to this for decades, often in apocalyptic tones. Perhaps they'll be right some day. The benefits of being a reserve currency are greatly overstated. Many US businesse...
by Seasonal
Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed, Snowflake, and Stocks
Replies: 42
Views: 4205

Re: The Fed, Snowflake, and Stocks

The hardest thing for most of us to accept is that understanding a few things about the economy in no way justifies an opinion about market direction. There are mountains of data and hundreds of different market segments (obv am thinking beyond the industry segments) that all have their own intraca...
by Seasonal
Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 170
Views: 8990

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

All of these observations are improperly cast as conditionals. In reality, you're just describing what has happened in the very recent past. If ex-US had recently outperformed US with a .8 correlation, no one would be arguing that the correlation is evidence that one does not need US stocks. As alw...
by Seasonal
Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio's Bridgewater
Replies: 24
Views: 1985

Re: Ray Dalio's Bridgewater

If we're going to discuss an article and it's content, might be worth providing a link to it: Not certain this is the article but appears to have the same graphic https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/for-bridgewater-a-year-of-losses-withdrawals-and-uneasy-staff https://archive.is/ZBL3t Fair poin...
by Seasonal
Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio's Bridgewater
Replies: 24
Views: 1985

Ray Dalio's Bridgewater

There are many posts here quoting Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, a massive hedge fund. I therefore thought this might be of interest:

Image

Usual disclaimer about looking at short term performance.
by Seasonal
Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard brokerage mechanics?
Replies: 19
Views: 787

Re: Vanguard brokerage mechanics?

I just spoke to a Vanguard rep and was told that we could use 90% of the current value of a non-Vanguard fund we are selling to purchase another security, in this case a Vanguard fund. The other 10% will be available tomorrow. They hold back the 10% to cover possible fluctuations. When buying the Va...
by Seasonal
Sun Sep 13, 2020 7:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard brokerage mechanics?
Replies: 19
Views: 787

Re: Vanguard brokerage mechanics?

Just churn whatever fixed income is available in the particular account. 1. Sell fixed income to cash. Wait for settlement. Say there is $X worth of cash. 2. Buy $X of VTSAX and sell $X of non-VG funds. 3. Wait for everything to fully settle. 4. Go back to step 2. Stop when everything is as wanted....
by Seasonal
Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munis vs. other "safe" investments?
Replies: 35
Views: 2509

Re: Munis vs. other "safe" investments?

France 10 year is at -0.194%. http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/country/franc US 10 year is at 0.67%. https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us Which does the market regard as riskier? I am sorry. That's just looloo silly (whatever that is). Um, yeah first, rates don't onl...
by Seasonal
Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard brokerage mechanics?
Replies: 19
Views: 787

Re: Vanguard brokerage mechanics?

If you have a fixed income allocation, why not use some of that to cover the VG Mutual Fund buy on the same day you do the non-VG Mutual Fund sell? Then once everything clears, move the proceeds from that sell back to fixed income? Your AA would be the same, the funds used to cover the difference i...
by Seasonal
Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munis vs. other "safe" investments?
Replies: 35
Views: 2509

Re: Munis vs. other "safe" investments?

France 10 year is at -0.194%. http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/country/franc

US 10 year is at 0.67%. https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates ... t-bonds/us

Which does the market regard as riskier?
by Seasonal
Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard brokerage mechanics?
Replies: 19
Views: 787

Re: Vanguard brokerage mechanics?

If you buy and sell the ETF on the same day, watch out for wash sales and short term gains (and losses).... There is no wash sale if one buys an ETF or stock and sells it for a loss immediately. A short-term gain would be better than having the money in a money market fund or savings account, so th...
by Seasonal
Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard brokerage mechanics?
Replies: 19
Views: 787

Re: Vanguard brokerage mechanics?

Correct me if I'm mistaken but both an ETF purchase and a non-VG fund sale will settle in two days. So if one is confident about how much the fund will sell for, one can buy the ETF on the same day as the sale is made. The only risk is if the fund tanks in the last few minutes after the ETF buy ord...
by Seasonal
Sun Sep 13, 2020 5:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard brokerage mechanics?
Replies: 19
Views: 787

Re: Vanguard brokerage mechanics?

I do not recommend trying to buy and sell an ETF on the same day in this situation. That's needless tax complexity. Being out of the market for a day can go either way. If it's a down day, you win! Just offering you an alternative if being out of the market for a day was a concern. May also depend ...
by Seasonal
Sun Sep 13, 2020 5:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard brokerage mechanics?
Replies: 19
Views: 787

Re: Vanguard brokerage mechanics?

[Sell non-Vanguard fund to buy Vanguard fund] 3) This will require one day out of the market unless you have an equal amount of cash elsewhere you can draw from. This is because exchanges are not supported for non-Vanguard mutual funds, but the mutual funds still transact after market close. Thus, ...
by Seasonal
Sun Sep 13, 2020 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard brokerage mechanics?
Replies: 19
Views: 787

Re: Vanguard brokerage mechanics?

I have been looking into transitioning to a brokerage account too. I just read a nice FAQ on Vanguard’s website that helped answer a lot of our questions. I read the FAQ, but was sufficiently unclear that I thought it better to post. Here's the FAQ on trading mutual funds: https://investor.vanguard...
by Seasonal
Sun Sep 13, 2020 4:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard brokerage mechanics?
Replies: 19
Views: 787

Vanguard brokerage mechanics?

Vanguard brokerage account holding Vanguard funds, non-Vanguard funds and stocks (including ETFs). The goal is to sell many of these and use the proceeds to buy another Vanguard fund. I'd like to make sure I understand the mechanics. Assume the following trades are entered during trading hours. 1) S...
by Seasonal
Sun Sep 13, 2020 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 170
Views: 8990

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

From the Happier article: "That brings us to the second reason to favor U.S. over foreign stocks: America’s future continues to look brighter." That entirely misses the point. If U.S. stocks are priced for a better economy or political system or whatever, then U.S. stocks won't do any better if both...
by Seasonal
Sat Sep 12, 2020 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munis vs. other "safe" investments?
Replies: 35
Views: 2509

Re: Munis vs. other "safe" investments?

The economy of California is the largest in the United States, boasting a $3.2 trillion gross state product as of 2019.[9] If California were a sovereign nation (2019), it would rank as the world's fifth largest economy, ahead of India and behind Germany.[10][11] Additionally, California's Silicon ...
by Seasonal
Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munis vs. other "safe" investments?
Replies: 35
Views: 2509

Re: Munis vs. other "safe" investments?

How much are you saving by using a CA fund rather than the other funds you are considering? Diversification is safer, but it depends on the cost. "It seems like a very poorly managed state with extremely high tax rates across the board." I've been reading predictions of disaster for CA for a long ti...
by Seasonal
Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Projected inflation rate and equity rate of return
Replies: 27
Views: 1334

Re: Projected inflation rate and equity rate of return

I'd use e/p or 1/CAPE for real equity returns, current YTM (or SEC yield) for comparable bonds for bonds and 2% for inflation (Fed target). Then I'd use error bands of at least 5 percentage points (perhaps 8 or 10) either way on the result (equity likely to be the most uncertain).
by Seasonal
Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too much S&P 500 index concentration in FAAMGs?
Replies: 67
Views: 3929

Re: Too much S&P 500 index concentration in FAAMGs?

So I updated my numbers as of today, and here's what you get, as an example: Top 20 companies by market cap = 39% of the total market cap Top 20 companies by sales = 22 % of the total sales Top 20 companies by earnings = 33% of the total earnings. Companies with 33% of earnings representing 39% of ...
by Seasonal
Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does everyone think the market is over-inflated?
Replies: 112
Views: 8072

Re: Why does everyone think the market is over-inflated?

CAPE and p/e are likely important, but we don't have any good way of using them for investing. There's a lot of intuitive appeal to using these metrics and it's not to difficult to construct tests seemingly showing how to profit from timing using them. It's actually profiting on a consistent basis t...
by Seasonal
Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To what extent is divergence between US and European stock markets related to structural factors?
Replies: 5
Views: 430

Re: To what extent is divergence between US and European stock markets related to structural factors?

AlohaJoe wrote: Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:14 amUS financial company performance alone is responsible for nearly 50% of the out-performance of US vs. ex-US.
Do you have a link for that?

I wonder what percentage tech might be.
by Seasonal
Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does everyone think the market is over-inflated?
Replies: 112
Views: 8072

Re: Why does everyone think the market is over-inflated?

Some ppl (not me) use some metric such as P/E and believe in mean reversion. Yeah, but what mean? There's a new mean every day. How far back should we measure? Are there companies that contributed to some ancient mean that are no longer alive? Does that make older means meaningless? Will a current ...
by Seasonal
Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too much S&P 500 index concentration in FAAMGs?
Replies: 67
Views: 3929

Re: Too much S&P 500 index concentration in FAAMGs?

Criticism of Concentrated Index Risk Are Off Base August 21, 2020 8:00am by Barry Ritholtz Top-Heavy Stock Indexes Are Nothing to Fear It’s not rare for a small group of equities such as Apple, Microsoft and Amazon.com to account for a large percentage of the S&P 500. https://ritholtz.com/2020/08/c...
by Seasonal
Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too much S&P 500 index concentration in FAAMGs?
Replies: 67
Views: 3929

Re: Too much S&P 500 index concentration in FAAMGs?

Either you are better able to value companies and construct portfolios than the market or you are not.

Not very many people have a successful track record of consistently being better than the market, but you might be one of the fortunate few.

Act accordingly.
by Seasonal
Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too much S&P 500 index concentration in FAAMGs?
Replies: 67
Views: 3929

Re: Too much S&P 500 index concentration in FAAMGs?

Criticism of Concentrated Index Risk Are Off Base August 21, 2020 8:00am by Barry Ritholtz Top-Heavy Stock Indexes Are Nothing to Fear It’s not rare for a small group of equities such as Apple, Microsoft and Amazon.com to account for a large percentage of the S&P 500. https://ritholtz.com/2020/08/c...
by Seasonal
Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does everyone think the market is over-inflated?
Replies: 112
Views: 8072

Re: Why does everyone think the market is over-inflated?

The usual explanations are the disconnect between the economy and the market, that valuation ratios are high (https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe) and that the top bunch of stocks by market cap have a higher than usual percentage of the total market cap. Stay the course. No one knows anything, but tha...
by Seasonal
Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification
Replies: 92
Views: 6473

Re: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification

Isn't 90% of the trading performed by PhD's in finance/math representing large investment companies and other financial institutions? Also, when we buy index funds aren't we just buying a market that was already determined by those same PhD's? Absolutely not. There are conflicting reports of how mu...
by Seasonal
Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification
Replies: 92
Views: 6473

Re: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification

I don’t trust foreign corporate governance. Even if those companies outperform, will that outperformance go to the shareholders? Does anyone care about the shareholders? The US basically invented the concept (not literally but we codified the philosophy, law, and academic backing of it). US compani...
by Seasonal
Wed Sep 09, 2020 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification
Replies: 92
Views: 6473

Re: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification

At some point, as you get to riskier and sketchier investments, the "efficient market" hypothesis starts to be more and more questionable. Part of the nature of riskier investments is that it is harder and harder for the market to judge value correctly. The efficient market hypothesis is that the m...
by Seasonal
Tue Sep 08, 2020 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are the days of 7% avg index returns over?
Replies: 65
Views: 9443

Re: Are the days of 7% avg index returns over?

Have you ever taken Economics 101? Remember the part about supply and demand? More people investing means the demand for stocks will go up. Unless the supply increases, the price will go up, not down. Raw numbers of investors is essentially meaningless. The supply and demand curves I'm used to seei...
by Seasonal
Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Additional investment when the market is down
Replies: 51
Views: 2942

Re: Additional investment when the market is down

You appear to be under the impression that covid is causing the market to be too high. In other words when covid is over the market will be lower. This seems an odd belief. I agree with everyone else that you're investing too slowly. Two years would be a long DCA and that's a bit over 4%/month. I t...
by Seasonal
Tue Sep 08, 2020 5:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Additional investment when the market is down
Replies: 51
Views: 2942

Re: Additional investment when the market is down

You appear to be under the impression that covid is causing the market to be too high. In other words when covid is over the market will be lower. This seems an odd belief.

I agree with everyone else that you're investing too slowly. Two years would be a long DCA and that's a bit over 4%/month.
by Seasonal
Tue Sep 08, 2020 4:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are the days of 7% avg index returns over?
Replies: 65
Views: 9443

Re: Are the days of 7% avg index returns over?

In Jerome Powell's latest interview on NPR it was hinted that this may be the case since more and more people are investing. Moving forward would it be more realistic to expect returns of 3-4% on average now? I think even Bogle mentioned something like this in the past where he thought the average ...
by Seasonal
Mon Sep 07, 2020 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are european markets always trailing US markets?
Replies: 18
Views: 1571

Re: Why are european markets always trailing US markets?

Unfortunately, not really. I don't see how providing annual outperformance data of US vs. Europe has any bearing on daily correlations between the returns of the two asset classes. Daily correlation can not be all that significant if annual correlation is low. Any actual statistics on daily correla...
by Seasonal
Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Spouse: How to get REAL ID driver's license without social security card and recent job?
Replies: 77
Views: 4740

Re: Spouse: How to get REAL ID driver's license without social security card and recent job?

WARNING IT IS A FEDERAL OFFENCE TO KILL, KIDNAP, FORCIBLY ASSAULT, INTIMIDATE OR INTERFERE WITH DESIGNATED FEDERAL EMPLOYEES WHILE THEY ARE ENGAGED IN OR ON ACCOUNT OF THE PERFORMANCE OF THEIR ASSIGNED DUTIES. VIOLATORS ARE SUBJECT TO CRIMINAL PROSECUTION! 28 CFR PART 64 (ORDER NO. 1236-89). This i...
by Seasonal
Sun Sep 06, 2020 4:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Open New Non-Brokerage Vanguard Account
Replies: 14
Views: 1268

Re: Open New Non-Brokerage Vanguard Account

Why not just open a brokerage account? Is there a benefit to having a non-brokerage account? With a brokerage account, the brokerage company holds title to your investments and you are their creditor. In the event they become insolvent, SIPC insurance would protect you up to a coverage limit of $50...
by Seasonal
Sat Sep 05, 2020 7:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?
Replies: 4775
Views: 919261

Re: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?

RE: Chase flex 5 points when using their travel portal. I wonder if the perk is as good as it sounds. Allow me to explain. When we purchase airline tickets we have two options. Either using our United card or Chase flex card. With the United card we get free luggage which we use each and every time...