Search found 431 matches

by Swivelguy
Sun Feb 28, 2021 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 521
Views: 24983

Re: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor

One reason that I like a lifecycle investing approach is that it completely negates the questions of what to include in your net worth and how to calculate your portfolio AA. The lifecycle investing approach is: 1. Buy all your stocks 2. Buy all your bonds 3. Retire Add in a mortgage and it becomes:...
by Swivelguy
Sat Feb 27, 2021 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 521
Views: 24983

Re: Debt is a Negative Bond - The White Coat Investor

tooluser wrote: Fri Feb 26, 2021 11:16 pmWhat is anti-cash?
A spouse?
by Swivelguy
Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Invest in Crypto like a Boglehead?
Replies: 154
Views: 14578

Re: How to Invest in Crypto like a Boglehead?

Ethereum has an underlying rate of return. Currently over 8% but will settle around 5%ish. The fact that a proof-of-stake cryptocurrency multiplies in your account does not in my mind equate to it having a return. If a company's stock was contractually guaranteed to have a split every year, would y...
by Swivelguy
Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?
Replies: 404
Views: 20152

Re: Bitcoin @ 23K, why am I anti-Bitcoin?

I can only speak for myself, but I am anti-Bitcoin because it is an ecological disaster, emitting 22 million tons of CO2 annually. $1 invested in bitcoin emits about as much CO2 as $5 invested into gasoline that you burn in a drum in your backyard. Annually, so don't forget to burn $5 of gas next ye...
by Swivelguy
Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best deal on unlocked mobile phones--just the phone.
Replies: 39
Views: 3044

Re: Best deal on unlocked mobile phones--just the phone.

The best deal on a phone is always going to be a gently used unit. I tend to go with ebay, because it's familiar and its strong buyer protection policy eliminates the fear of getting stuck with a lemon.
by Swivelguy
Fri Dec 11, 2020 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Fund Barbell v. Intermediate Bond Fund
Replies: 18
Views: 1758

Re: Bond Fund Barbell v. Intermediate Bond Fund

The bonds in my retirement portfolio are duration-matched to my retirement time horizon, which is to say they're quite long.

The cash and bonds in my emergency fund are duration-matched to a potential emergency, which is to say they're quite short.

So, I guess I own a barbell?
by Swivelguy
Sat Nov 28, 2020 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: No Mortgage - Wrong??
Replies: 94
Views: 7827

Re: No Mortgage - Wrong??

To me the buy-and-hold strategy is completely consistent with having a paid off mortgage. I would argue that a house is an investment. It is an investment in my mental health. But I'm also investing in a place to live. As long as I'm alive, I will need a place to live. And food and water. And cloth...
by Swivelguy
Fri Nov 27, 2020 6:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: No Mortgage - Wrong??
Replies: 94
Views: 7827

Re: No Mortgage - Wrong??

I think it's interesting that bogleheads will tell you that investing shouldn't be emotional, that you should use a totally robotic buy-and-hold indexing strategy, and then in the very next breath advise pursuing or maintaining outright homeownership because it gives them such a warm fuzzy feeling. ...
by Swivelguy
Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is paying your mortgage the same as buying bonds --but better?
Replies: 6
Views: 1453

Re: Is paying your mortgage the same as buying bonds --but better?

This is why I don't actually like thinking about AA in terms of a percentage. Or rebalancing to one. How much stock exposure (in dollars) do you need to reach your retirement goal? Let's say you want to retire on $2M with an AA of 60/40. Then you need $1.2M of stock. If you have less than that, keep...
by Swivelguy
Sat Oct 03, 2020 10:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How does a real estate agent wind down?
Replies: 13
Views: 2145

Re: How does a real estate agent wind down?

Age 66 and "decent income but doesn't have a lot of money saved." It sounds like savings rate is an issue and should be addressed first.
by Swivelguy
Sat Sep 26, 2020 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do I Need to Keep My Life Insurance Policy?
Replies: 19
Views: 1370

Re: Do I Need to Keep My Life Insurance Policy?

It's hard to come up with an argument in favor of keeping it, but here's the best one I have: the last few years of a life insurance policy are the best "deal." The premiums and the payout are constant over the full duration of the policy, but the probability of dying goes up as you age. I...
by Swivelguy
Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Camera to attach to gutter cleaning apparatus
Replies: 13
Views: 902

Re: Camera to attach to gutter cleaning apparatus

The go-to small cheap wifi camera is a Wyze Cam. The Wyze Cam Outdoor is waterproof and has a built-in battery for $50, or you could use the basic $20 Wyze cam with a USB power bank.
by Swivelguy
Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Aggressive pessimism and yet investing
Replies: 36
Views: 2566

Re: Aggressive pessimism and yet investing

OP, I agree completely with your worldview and also invest heavily. My belief is that we (at minimum the U.S., but possibly the whole world) are entering a slow collapse—a 50+ year period of continually accelerating income inequality and environmental-related scarcity, reflected in sharply negative ...
by Swivelguy
Sun Aug 09, 2020 8:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone using crypto exchanges to earn higher interest on their cash?
Replies: 90
Views: 9372

Re: Anyone using crypto exchanges to earn higher interest on their cash?

Cryptocurrency is an ecological disaster (bitcoin consumes more electricity than Switzerland), so I feel it is not ethical to participate in or support it.
by Swivelguy
Fri Aug 07, 2020 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adaptive Asset Allocation (AAA)
Replies: 5
Views: 729

Re: Adaptive Asset Allocation (AAA)

There are 10 portfolios in that flowchart, and I know I can't pick winners, so I guess I'll just invest 10% in each one.
by Swivelguy
Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stocks - S&P Envy vs 60/40
Replies: 95
Views: 5830

Re: 100% Stocks - S&P Envy vs 60/40

Anyone can cherry pick time horizons they like to make a case. You mean you didn't make all of your lifetime income in 2000 and do all of your retirement spending in 2020? I guess this is the life story of a 1-hit-wonder pop star who puts it all into an annuity at age 45. Too rarely when backtestin...
by Swivelguy
Thu Aug 06, 2020 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware the Hype on Gold"
Replies: 170
Views: 13176

Re: "Beware the Hype on Gold"

Gold trading at $1,980.24 per ounce as of 7/29/2020 at 14:40 EST. Buy Low, Sell High. Just my opinion, but now would be a great time to sell gold... if you're into market timing and what not. I'm not into market timing, but I sold some IAU recently during rebalancing. Why does everyone always assum...
by Swivelguy
Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is 25 too young for paid off house?!
Replies: 72
Views: 5367

Re: Is 25 too young for paid off house?!

I wouldnt take on a loan to invest So what you're saying is that you hypothetically would not carry debt in order to possess investments. i would dely on paying down low interest debt to invest So what you're saying is that you hypothetically would carry debt in order to possess investments. I hope...
by Swivelguy
Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does a couple really "need" an SUV?
Replies: 225
Views: 12737

Re: Does a couple really "need" an SUV?

Haha, wow. No, of course you don't need an SUV. My car is a hyundai "subcompact" hatchback. I've hauled bags of mulch with it. I've hauled 4x8 sheets of plywood with it. I hauled a 15' ladder with it. I hauled 4 people and 4 bicycles up the mountainside to crater lake. I slapped chains on ...
by Swivelguy
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is 25 too young for paid off house?!
Replies: 72
Views: 5367

Re: Is 25 too young for paid off house?!

Well, first things first... He doesn't have a mortgage as his house is paid off...If one did have a mortgage and had enough money to pay it off in taxable investments, depending on one's overall goals and strategy, paying off the mortgage early could indeed be a worthwhile step (many of us have don...
by Swivelguy
Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is 25 too young for paid off house?!
Replies: 72
Views: 5367

Re: Is 25 too young for paid off house?!

Emergency Fund: 3 months of expenses. Debt: None House is Paid off (65K) AA: 100/0 income 50K Right now we have roughly 82K invested between work Roth 401k and Roth's and HSA I will be investing 20K+ for the forseable future a year Do NOT, I repeat - do not get another mortgage so you can invest. T...
by Swivelguy
Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is 25 too young for paid off house?!
Replies: 72
Views: 5367

Re: Is 25 too young for paid off house?!

If you think stocks will outperform your house in the long run and understand the risks of leverage, you could get a mortgage for investing. Stocks don't have to outperform the housing market for this to be a good idea, they only have to outperform the mortgage interest rate. One has the same expos...
by Swivelguy
Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:35 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: I'm 30. Should I diversify or stay 100% in equities?
Replies: 34
Views: 5434

Re: I'm 30. Should I diversify or stay 100% in equities?

If you're asking the question, you can have a little bonds, as a treat.
by Swivelguy
Sat Jul 18, 2020 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For me, putting cash into bonds doesn't make sense when I have a mortgage
Replies: 75
Views: 7637

Re: For me, putting cash into bonds doesn't make sense when I have a mortgage

All of my funds in my taxable have CGs. So that would be an expensive swap since my CG taxes are 24%. You have to pay those eventually if you ever want to spend the money. The only price is the cost of doing it now vs waiting for a year that you can get a lower CGs rate (if that will ever happen fo...
by Swivelguy
Sat Jul 18, 2020 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For me, putting cash into bonds doesn't make sense when I have a mortgage
Replies: 75
Views: 7637

Re: For me, putting cash into bonds doesn't make sense when I have a mortgage

All of my bonds are in my 401k which I cannot access without severe penalties. I did this to minimize growth in my tax deferred account. My taxable and Roth accounts are 100% stock. For me, I can’t pay down my mortgage with my bonds although I would like to. Sure you can, just sell the bonds in tax...
by Swivelguy
Sat Jul 18, 2020 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For me, putting cash into bonds doesn't make sense when I have a mortgage
Replies: 75
Views: 7637

Re: For me, putting cash into bonds doesn't make sense when I have a mortgage

Taking a mortgage into account seems to make it hard for some people to determine what their AA is or should be. A lifecycle investing approach makes that problem go away in an instant. If I have less than $825k* in stocks, new money goes into stocks. If I have more, I sell down to $825k. Any availa...
by Swivelguy
Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who switched my windshield wiper arms?
Replies: 69
Views: 8939

Re: Who switched my windshield wiper arms?

Do you have kids? Kids do... things sometimes.
by Swivelguy
Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do I "short" banks/mortgages?
Replies: 16
Views: 883

Re: How do I "short" banks/mortgages?

Short (or trade options in) an MBS ETF. Or short big bank stocks directly.

Come back later and let us know who ended up eating your lunch.
by Swivelguy
Wed Jul 15, 2020 7:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Calculation Logic - Mortgage Points vs. Larger Downpayment vs. No Points
Replies: 2
Views: 295

Re: Calculation Logic - Mortgage Points vs. Larger Downpayment vs. No Points

Is there a reason that you are excluding the principal portion of the loan payments made during the 5 years? Yes, you get them back, but you already accounted for getting them back in the net sale proceeds. The principal paid on option B is $3244 higher than option A, which wipes out option B's lead...
by Swivelguy
Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any Astronomy Buffs Out There?
Replies: 81
Views: 5895

Re: Any Astronomy Buffs Out There?

livesoft wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 7:42 pmEven looking at a planet is just another dot of light in the sky.
Jupiter and Saturn disagree!
by Swivelguy
Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someone explain the 30 days PRIOR or tax loss harvesting?
Replies: 16
Views: 916

Re: Can someone explain the 30 days PRIOR or tax loss harvesting?

Suppose that the shares that get their cost basis adjusted by adding the disallowed loss per share added to the cost basis are actually in a Roth IRA or a traditional IRA? In that case, adjusting the cost basis doesn't change the taxes when the shares are sold and the money withdrawn from the accou...
by Swivelguy
Tue Jul 07, 2020 10:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to invest 6,000 in a 3 fund portfolio when admiral shares have a minimal balance of 3,000?
Replies: 27
Views: 2300

Re: How to invest 6,000 in a 3 fund portfolio when admiral shares have a minimal balance of 3,000?

ETF trading is very easy. Actually if you do it over at Fidelity, you can trade VTI, VXUS, and BND for free with fractional shares so that all money is invested. Fidelilty also allows automatic re-investment of ETF dividends (Which takes away the only other drawback to ETFs). That way you get to ow...
by Swivelguy
Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why do you invest and what are you investing for?
Replies: 22
Views: 1680

Re: Why do you invest and what are you investing for?

I invest because previous generations were able to increase the buying power of their money by doing so. I have doubts about whether that will continue to be the case going forward (why would the rich and powerful give away this free lunch to average joes?), but I'm willing to give it a go and hope ...
by Swivelguy
Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Suggest Video games that make you and your kids sweat
Replies: 9
Views: 713

Re: Suggest Video games that make you and your kids sweat

My wife and I, as we approach middle age, remain stuck in 2002. Once a week or so we break out the playstation 2 and the pads and pop in a Dance Dance Revolution game so we can remind ourselves how out of shape we are. I wouldn't recommend this as a starting point now. Instead I would get USB dance ...
by Swivelguy
Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investment a competition?
Replies: 43
Views: 2507

Re: Is investment a competition?

I suspect it is true that cost of living eventually becomes indexed to how much people can afford to pay for things. However, I see this as a comfort. Making the right decisions is very hard when you talk about things like US vs international, or TIPS vs nominal bonds. But I don't have to make all t...
by Swivelguy
Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50% VTSAX (VANGUARD) & 50% Gold (One Gold)
Replies: 53
Views: 4409

Re: 50% VTSAX (VANGUARD) & 50% Gold (One Gold)

A bar of gold has no intrinsic return. The price goes up due to inflation and speculation. I would expect 0% real return unless you think there will be speculative return. In this case, how will you know when to sell? You sell when you hit your rebalancing bands. Again, the real expected return of ...
by Swivelguy
Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50% VTSAX (VANGUARD) & 50% Gold (One Gold)
Replies: 53
Views: 4409

Re: 50% VTSAX (VANGUARD) & 50% Gold (One Gold)

andrige wrote: Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:19 pm A bar of gold has no intrinsic return. The price goes up due to inflation and speculation. I would expect 0% real return unless you think there will be speculative return. In this case, how will you know when to sell?
You sell when you hit your rebalancing bands.
by Swivelguy
Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Funds to settle
Replies: 4
Views: 322

Re: Funds to settle

For what type of security?
by Swivelguy
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50% VTSAX (VANGUARD) & 50% Gold (One Gold)
Replies: 53
Views: 4409

Re: 50% VTSAX (VANGUARD) & 50% Gold (One Gold)

I don’t really want to hold bonds at this time. So when do you want to hold bonds? Unlike gold which has a ~0% expected annualized return over the next decade, bonds at least have a ~2.5% expected annualized return over that same period. What are you waiting for? I'll go ahead and disagree. I expec...
by Swivelguy
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Reducing Blow-Up risk
Replies: 8
Views: 1336

Re: Reducing Blow-Up risk

There are many ways things can go bad, some you can hedge against, others you can't. Some reasonable hedges you could consider would be holding 5-10% of your portfolio in gold (to mitigate real losses in extended stagflation), expanding your emergency fund, and/or cultivating alternative sources of ...
by Swivelguy
Sat Jun 27, 2020 8:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to hold US Dollars without any credit risk?
Replies: 30
Views: 1655

Re: How to hold US Dollars without any credit risk?

OP, get nickels. Lots and lots of nickels. Unlike paper currency, they're fireproof and also theft-proof because they will be simply too heavy for theft to be practical.
by Swivelguy
Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bond duration glide path for retirement investing
Replies: 72
Views: 7029

Re: A bond duration glide path for retirement investing

I don't question the concept, but the curve itself surprises me. The SS tables show a life-expectancy of ten (10) years for a 77 year-old, but the OP curve shows about five (5) years duration. If you will be spending your portfolio at a roughly constant rate over the next 10 years, the average dura...
by Swivelguy
Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the present value of contributing into social security be estimated?
Replies: 6
Views: 478

Re: Can the present value of contributing into social security be estimated?

So if I take a swing at this myself: Social security is intended to replace 15% of your earned income (above a certain threshold, so 15% of marginal earned income in the largest band), from the 35 highest-earning years, if you retire at 65. Let's assume a life expectancy of 90, so we'll collect for ...
by Swivelguy
Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the present value of contributing into social security be estimated?
Replies: 6
Views: 478

Can the present value of contributing into social security be estimated?

In choosing health insurance and investing strategy, an often-cited benefit of contributing to an HSA through payroll deduction is the avoidance of FICA taxes. A portion of those taxes that are avoided consists of payments into social security (assuming that one's income isn't so high that you will ...
by Swivelguy
Fri Jun 19, 2020 7:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Susie Orman Says You are Crazy to be Investing in Bonds
Replies: 173
Views: 18242

Re: Susie Orman Says You are Crazy to be Investing in Bonds

Suze Orman made a career out of giving budgeting advice. Does she even have credentials or experience in providing investing advice?
by Swivelguy
Fri Jun 19, 2020 7:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Your thoughts on a <= 10% allocation to PHYS - Sprott Physical Gold Trust
Replies: 25
Views: 2404

Re: Your thoughts on a <= 10% allocation to PHYS - Sprott Physical Gold Trust

I wouldn't be so sure that a free lunch exists. Maybe consult a tax attorney and/or CPA before you commit to a strategy.

https://www.etf.com/sections/blog/7345- ... 3&Itemid=3
by Swivelguy
Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Your thoughts on a <= 10% allocation to PHYS - Sprott Physical Gold Trust
Replies: 25
Views: 2404

Re: Your thoughts on a <= 10% allocation to PHYS - Sprott Physical Gold Trust

What's the logic for doing this in taxable and not in your IRA? The higher tax rate on gold (versus LTCGs on stocks) is exactly what you don't want if it fulfills its intended purpose of surging upward when stocks take a dive and you need to rebalance.
by Swivelguy
Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Disappointed in Fidelity 2% Cash Back credit card
Replies: 167
Views: 11204

Re: Disappointed in Fidelity 2% Cash Back credit card

Perhaps she could set up a money market account, but adding an account just to be able to get actually get the cash back would be ridiculous. It is trivial to open a free Fidelity checking (might be called "cash management") account to redeem into, and you can very easily (albeit not auto...
by Swivelguy
Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Down Payment Savings Method
Replies: 31
Views: 2183

Re: Down Payment Savings Method

I think the facts and opinions that you just posted are an endorsement of being wealthy and having a high income and meaningless otherwise.
by Swivelguy
Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Down Payment Savings Method
Replies: 31
Views: 2183

Re: Down Payment Savings Method

It seems as though conventional wisdom is to put down payment savings in a high yield/money market account since there is no risk of value loss. Since home prices rise at around the rate of inflation ~2% and higher in HCOL areas, and current interest rates are lower than this, aren’t you guaranteed...