Search found 955 matches

by CnC
Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best location for international funds.
Replies: 4
Views: 1626

Re: Best location for international funds.

Thanks I knew there was a link somewhere but I haven't been on Bogleheads for a while and I had forgotten how to locate the info.
by CnC
Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: My dad is taking Social Security at 62, why would anyone not? (If they already quit working)
Replies: 241
Views: 51153

Re: My dad is taking Social Security at 62, why would anyone not? (If they already quit working)

C If he listened to convention wisdom he would still be working and not got to spend any time in retirement with his wife. So there was not much that was going to change his mind. We talked and agreed money buys a 60 year old a lot more enjoyment than it does an 80 year old CnC, Whether to withdraw social security at 62 years old has nothing to do with whether to retire at 62 years old. A person could retire at 62 years old and live on his portfolio and then withdraw social security at 67/70 year sold. If someone could not retire without withdrawing the social security at 62 years old, then, no discussion is needed. However, if someone could live on their portfolio and withdraw social security at 67/70 years old, it could be advantageous. ...
by CnC
Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best location for international funds.
Replies: 4
Views: 1626

Best location for international funds.

Hey guys, it's been a while and I I'm just sanity checking myself.


I haven't bought any international index funds in a while and my AA has gotten a bit out of wack.

I believe last time I did research into it, the best place to hold your international funds was in your taxable account. Because you have to pay some taxes on the profits/dividends oversees and you can write some of those taxes off for USA taxes.


Am I correct or am I mixed up.


Thanks
-Cnc
by CnC
Wed Aug 25, 2021 7:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: My dad is taking Social Security at 62, why would anyone not? (If they already quit working)
Replies: 241
Views: 51153

Re: My dad is taking Social Security at 62, why would anyone not? (If they already quit working)

If he listened to convention wisdom he would still be working and not got to spend any time in retirement with his wife. So there was not much that was going to change his mind. We talked and agreed money buys a 60 year old a lot more enjoyment than it does an 80 year old CnC, Whether to withdraw social security at 62 years old has nothing to do with whether to retire at 62 years old. A person could retire at 62 years old and live on his portfolio and then withdraw social security at 67/70 year sold. If someone could not retire without withdrawing the social security at 62 years old, then, no discussion is needed. However, if someone could live on their portfolio and withdraw social security at 67/70 years old, it could be advantageous. If...
by CnC
Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

willthrill81 wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 4:22 pm
CnC wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:27 am It was, I had an incredible return in 2020 it was by far my best year financially. My invested net worth increased 42% from 2019.
That's fantastic! Good for you. I also appreciate you reporting your results. Some here will not believe you because their worldview doesn't allow it, but you know for yourself. I too outperformed buy-and-hold in 2020 but not nearly by the margin that you did.
Hey Will long time no see, hope you are doing well. People like you make it worth dealing with the negativity from others around here.
by CnC
Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

I just had to get away from the stress of talking about investing with everything else going on over the summer and I just never picked it back up in the fall. Now that I saw my year end results I'm back and properly motivated. I'd give you (some) credit if you'd followed-up in real time, not after the fact. I was pointing out how some people always turn up after the fact claiming to be successful at timing, but when asked for real time follow-up they always disappear. :oops: o no what ever will I do without (some) credit from you? I called it before the drop, said exactly what I was going to do. Did it in real time and now I am reporting my year end results. If that doesn't fit your exact criteria then too bad, I do not care. I'm not doin...
by CnC
Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

White Coat Investor wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:53 am I think the big danger now is that you saw an example where market timing worked for you. That doesn't make success the next time any more likely than it was this time.

I have a friend who did something similar. It didn't turn out nearly as well.

Well assuming we do not have another pending pandemic that the entire world is ignoring I likely won't try it again.



The deal with this was that not only was it guaranteed to get bad, everyone was completely ignoring it.


The chances of another terrible guaranteed event that everyone ignores is very low. I just slogged through the election plugging into my 401k and ignoring what seemed like a good idea to do. I wasn't even tempted.
by CnC
Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

It was, I had an incredible return in 2020 it was by far my best year financially. My invested net worth increased 42% from 2019. This included our contributions of course, but I ended 2019 at ±720k and ended 2020 at 1020k it has been a crazy year. I'm not going to reply to every comment or question people asked over the summer, but I am glad to be back. If anyone has any questions now I'll answer, just don't going to spam the forums with 20 replied to months old questions. It would be interesting to see what outcome you would have had if you simply rebalanced after the crash around March 20 rather than market-timed beforehand. I wonder if that + your contributions would have ended up with a very similar ~1M result, with much less drama Co...
by CnC
Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

I did it, I just could not help myself. With markets are all time highest and the coronavirus causing China to quarantine 50 million people, the USA stopping all flights to China and China basically putting their economy on hold for a few weeks I had to take some profits and rebalance my investments. I am 34 with ±10 years expenses saved. I was 75/25 I am now 50/50. I have set a timer to get back in the market by the end of March. I figure that if this does cause a sell off I will be able to buy back in at a nice discount. If it doesn't, I'll buy back in and lose 1-2%. I know this is a risk and I am rolling the dice, but it just seems like the negatives of waiting this particular event out outweigh the positives at the moment. I'm not sell...
by CnC
Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

White Coat Investor wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:55 am
CnC wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:52 am Well I'm back, thanks to this year I made it into the 2 comma club!!!


I could have done better but overall I beat the s&p 500 this past year by 7 points overall on my entire portfolio.


It turned out to be a great gamble, but I have no intention to do it again.

Cheers all :beer let's hope for a decent 2021
Congratulations! I'm really glad it worked out okay for you.

Thanks glad to be back, refreshed and hoping for a good 2021.
by CnC
Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

H-Town wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 2:05 pm I haven't seen the OP since April 2020. I hope he/she is doing fine.

Bump this up as a reminder that market timing is a venture not worth doing.

Nope I'm here and doing just fine. I just had to get away from the stress of talking about investing with everything else going on over the summer and I just never picked it back up in the fall.


Now that I saw my year end results I'm back and properly motivated. Still no desire to join wall street bets. Because I didn't act on any of my other hunches, but I would have been wrong 2/3 times so I'm happy hang out in the index
by CnC
Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Well I'm back, thanks to this year I made it into the 2 comma club!!!


I could have done better but overall I beat the s&p 500 this past year by 7 points overall on my entire portfolio.


It turned out to be a great gamble, but I have no intention to do it again.

Cheers all :beer let's hope for a decent 2021
by CnC
Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any other investors with 70/30 portfolio?
Replies: 130
Views: 28144

Re: Any other investors with 70/30 portfolio?

L82GAME wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:33 am
CnC wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:02 am
riptide wrote: Fri Jan 30, 2015 7:30 am Any others with 70% stocks/ 30% bonds like I currently have and hope to hold for years. And, what are your plans?
Age 45, I have a Federal government Pension and invested in TSP.
Just wanted to mention, 70/30 with a govt pension is not the same as a normal person with a 70/30.

I have a govt pension and it adds significant safety to your portfolio. It transforms your AA to closer to 40/60.
Then why not include SS as a component of that logic?

You could, but SS is baked in for everyone. I would argue that you should accept SS as standard, and if you do not have SS coming tweak the math to consider your portfolio much more risky.
by CnC
Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

I can guarantee you that stocks will be lower than today. Interestingly the day the op said this was the lowest we've seen so far. We could always go down again but we are almost 30% higher today than 23rd March. Crystal ball broke I guess. :oops: Yep, Hey I'll take being wrong on the way back up. Because it means it went back up! I have the same amount of money within ±$1,000 that I did at the peak of the market. I'll take it. :beer Still sitting on my fixed income in cash rather than bonds incase we see another shock down. Hope everyone is doing well also, stay healthy out there. Hey glad you're still interested. I lost quite a lot more than that, but then it was all money that was gained in a couple of months. I was grateful for the bou...
by CnC
Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

jjface wrote: Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:45 pm
CnC wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:32 am I can guarantee you that stocks will be lower than today.
Interestingly the day the op said this was the lowest we've seen so far. We could always go down again but we are almost 30% higher today than 23rd March. Crystal ball broke I guess.

:oops:
Yep,

Hey I'll take being wrong on the way back up. Because it means it went back up!

I have the same amount of money within ±$1,000 that I did at the peak of the market.

I'll take it. :beer

Still sitting on my fixed income in cash rather than bonds incase we see another shock down. Hope everyone is doing well also, stay healthy out there.
by CnC
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any other investors with 70/30 portfolio?
Replies: 130
Views: 28144

Re: Any other investors with 70/30 portfolio?

riptide wrote: Fri Jan 30, 2015 7:30 am Any others with 70% stocks/ 30% bonds like I currently have and hope to hold for years. And, what are your plans?
Age 45, I have a Federal government Pension and invested in TSP.
Just wanted to mention, 70/30 with a govt pension is not the same as a normal person with a 70/30.

I have a govt pension and it adds significant safety to your portfolio. It transforms your AA to closer to 40/60.
by CnC
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If I were a retiree right now....
Replies: 83
Views: 12770

Re: If I were a retiree right now....

Raybo wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:43 pm Posting
Another
Nutty
Investment
Comment
Still too many Rosy posts for me.

I'll feel better when the board is full of nothing but these threads, it will mean the light will show soon.
by CnC
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 76646

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

As per Warren Buffet's thinking, the Market is "Significantly overvalued" https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php And if you ask Robert Shiller, he would probably tell you the same thing :( https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe Thanks for sharing the Buffet indicator :beer Honestly who is buying at these prices in a bear market? I'm not surprised, however, as I do believe the Fed and Administration will do everything in their power to keep the market up. I bought 6 figures last Thursday. This is easy money.... keep selling boys and girls, I'm sitting on a 46% gain to even, looking forward to 100% on my next round (-50%). No matter how many times everyone sees the movie, they just can't help but think the ending is diffe...
by CnC
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

My problem is that everyone who is optimistic about the near term future has not really talked about the actual statistics. If someone is optimistic please let me know how you are accounting for these troubles. Perhaps I may be overly concerned. Show me I am wrong. 1)The us cases are still in exponential growth. 2)We haven't had many people off work for long at all yet. 3) Recovery for the ±20% that make up serious cases is weeks of treatment. 4) World wide this is being felt and most of the major economies are shutting borders. 5) How are healthcare providers going to cope with losing workers and how are insurance companies going to handle paying for 100,000-1,000,000 people's 14 day ICU stay? 6)Right now our stock market dropped +30% and...
by CnC
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

I don't see today's rally as a dead cat bounce. There's sentiment afoot that the US will reopen, that the Fed's unlimited QE, and the massive stimulus bill will come through. If those things happen, the worst is over. That said, the coronavirus numbers are still going to get much, much worse in the US & worldwide before they get better. A LOT worse. Particularly, they will be horrendous if we simply go back to work now. So, I don't think that the governors are going to open back up quite so fast, even if they white house recommended doing so, and many states, particularly the coastal ones, are on lock down. The senate and the house are duking it out over the stimulus bill. I suspect we're going to see more bad news that will continue t...
by CnC
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

I don't see today's rally as a dead cat bounce. There's sentiment afoot that the US will reopen, that the Fed's unlimited QE, and the massive stimulus bill will come through. If those things happen, the worst is over. That said, the coronavirus numbers are still going to get much, much worse in the US & worldwide before they get better. A LOT worse. Particularly, they will be horrendous if we simply go back to work now. So, I don't think that the governors are going to open back up quite so fast, even if they white house recommended doing so, and many states, particularly the coastal ones, are on lock down. The senate and the house are duking it out over the stimulus bill. I suspect we're going to see more bad news that will continue t...
by CnC
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 76646

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

vipertom1970 wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:30 am
CnC wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:48 am

I think that it is really really foolish to think the bottom is behind us when things haven't even gotten bad yet.


The curve is still sloping up, we won't be at the bottom until we see it leveling off at the least because deaths will increase x4 after new cases level off.

To think it's all over because of one single piece of good news seems foolish.
go ahead and short the market then.
:oops:

There is a difference in being sure the market will drop some more and knowing when and how much.

Replies like this are just sour grapes.
by CnC
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So.... is this really "it"? Is this what we needed to mentally prepare for?
Replies: 158
Views: 17061

Re: So.... is this really "it"? Is this what we needed to mentally prepare for?

Stay humble. This isn’t even close to being done with. So you're a market timer? You know stocks will continue to go down? Not a market timer. Just saying we are not out of the woods, not even close. ...that's market timing. This thread is talking about the stock market, not peoples health. So if you're sure that we're not near the bottom, have you sold your stocks? When do you think you'll buy back in? Just curious. This is a combative and somewhat naive post. You are bragging about being ok losing ±300k while still having a job and +1m in the bank... It's hard to not be ok when you have a high paying job and more assets than 95% of Americans and 99.9% of the world. This is not the big test for you. The big test for you is that you become...
by CnC
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 76646

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

dbadalam wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:07 am I’m learning from the FIRE club and boggle fans that nobody really knows if we hit bottom already. But everyone tries to guess and speculate. So are you thinking the bottom is probably in the review mirror? Or are you thinking we really have not priced in more bad news to come?
I think that it is really really foolish to think the bottom is behind us when things haven't even gotten bad yet.


The curve is still sloping up, we won't be at the bottom until we see it leveling off at the least because deaths will increase x4 after new cases level off.

To think it's all over because of one single piece of good news seems foolish.
by CnC
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 1177
Views: 204279

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

willthrill81 wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:05 pm
Stef wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:12 am So any update?

Will the 4% rule fail this time?
I was just thinking that an update is probably in order for this thread after the onset of the current bear market.

Using the 60/40 portfolio described in the OP, the theoretical year 2000 retirees would, as of today, have a nominal balance of $779,566. In year 2000 dollars, this is $508,705.

This means that these retirees would still have more than 12 years of additional withdrawals, assuming 0% real returns going forward, after having experienced three bear markets in stocks in just over 20 years of their 30 year retirement.

Really? That's fascinating. Mind running through the numbers?


I would like to see the math if you have time.
by CnC
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Now - what to do? THE HARDEST PART is when to get back in and not miss too much of the upcoming up side! C&C - thanks for sticking to your guns and if I can help you or vice versa - just let me know. I really think NOW is a perfect time for DCA. I can guarantee you that stocks will be lower than today. But I can not guaranteed when they bottom out or when we will have a false 20% rally on some good news that ends up not moving the needle. Put 0.1-0.05 of your money in every day the market is red more than 1%. That should last around a month to two months of time. ~~~Here is my prediction, my crystal ball gazing for what it's worth.~~~ I think the market has 10-20 measurable drops left 2% or greater. Those 10-20 drops may account for a ...
by CnC
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 11442

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

DB2 wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:22 am
Vision wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:13 am
DB2 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:11 pm Lockdown likely until June.

https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles ... icial-says

I really don't see how we avoid a depression.
Can you explain why you think this will cause a multiple decade bear market?
Can you please quote me where I said this will cause a "multiple decade bear market"?
Exactly... So much of the US economy is just discretionary spending all of that will be cut out over the next month.

I see no way we are not in a massive recession. IDK where the line between depression and recession is. But there will be a big shift in the way life works, possibly for a generation.
by CnC
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 11442

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

A virus will create a 30+ year bear market? No, but there was a fair amount of evidence that the market was overvalued and that we are entering a period of secular stagnation. The virus just pricked the bubble. It might be like WWI. The killing of a grand duke dis not cause the war, it was just the spark that caused all if the other causes to blow up. Understandable, but a recession will last like what? ... 2-8 years most likely? And you still get dividend during that period. It will last up 10 years and you *may* get dividends during that period. I doubt it will become worse than the great depression, but I'm certain it will be worse than 08. This may fundamentally change the way Western society works. Younger generations are already less...
by CnC
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 379
Views: 48429

Re: It's Not Different This Time

A lot of newer forum participants have been surprised to see so many supposed Bogleheads panicking, selling low, market timing, picking individual stocks etc. They are surprised because they thought Bogleheads didn't do this stuff. Indeed, their mentor, Jack Bogle, said I've said "Stay the course" a thousand times, and I meant it every time. He meant it this time too, even if he isn't around to say it. Some of them are wondering if this mass Boglehead panic happened in 2008 too. While I'm nowhere near the oldest or most experienced Boglehead, I just wanted to reassure these newer members that yes, this happened in 2008 as well. There were lots of people who professed to be Bogleheads but didn't stay the course in 2008. Here are s...
by CnC
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

CnC, are you getting back in? Yep Yes I'm trying to stay neutral and 3rd party on this but the way businesses governments both big and small and the general population all seem to know we are standing on tracks and we hear the whistle blowing and no one really has a plan yet to show how we are going to step off. We appear to be running a bit farther down the line but it's pretty bad now and the bodies haven't hit the floor yet. But, with the fed and the us govt going full out to support the economy we may very well see a V shaped recession. I put another 25k in today to make up for sitting out yesterday. $120k cash left to go. Would you mind sharing what your plan is for getting the “$120k cash left to go” into the market? I am buying in 1...
by CnC
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

I did not read anything where anyone claimed to have special powers to time the market. I read that some people evaluated a situation and changed their normal behavior based on information. They do not need to be mocked or criticized because someone else has zero tolerance for the ability to think.They were right. Period. Sometimes people get a bit carried away with the boglehead dogma and seem unable to accept another point of view. :thumbsup Sadly, this forum is one of the few places where a person can provide a logical, if controversial, argument for a specific decision, clearly get it right, and then be derided mercilessly. I'm very thankful for and to those that have supported me personally, even if they were not adherents of my metho...
by CnC
Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

willthrill81 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:18 pm
sergeant wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:17 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:06 pm
smitcat wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:56 am Unless someone has posted the moves prior to the transactions they mean nothing.
I posted afterward but provided proof of the transactions. It didn't matter. Several would have had me banned if it was in their ability.
Can you link me to the proof of your transactions?
At the bottom of this post. However, I'm not discussing any of my subsequent actions, as I noted later in that thread. I became fed up with personal attacks and mockery.
Will I do want to say thanks for atleast having my back when the torches and pitchforks came out. I'll remember it man.

I was feeling pretty darn lonely for awhile.
by CnC
Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

No one knew it would be this bad, In 2003 we experienced SARS in China,and the SP 500 was up 29%, No one knew that this Corona Virus would spread so rapidly I had a pretty good idea. I new it would be atleast half this bad. Still bad enough to sell. If you didn't think this was going to really bad you had your fingers stuffed in your ears. Congrats on the move. I'd check the self-congratulatory chiding though. Skill is indistinguishable from luck in these moves, and the hard part for you is yet to come: figuring out when/if to reverse what you've done. Right now even if I buy back in at previous highs I'll be a good amount of money ahead. I am not trying to chide anything, sorry if I came out that way. I need to check myself I was more mea...
by CnC
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Redlion wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:24 am No one knew it would be this bad, In 2003 we experienced SARS in China,and the SP 500 was up 29%, No one knew that this Corona Virus would spread so rapidly
I had a pretty good idea. I new it would be atleast half this bad. Still bad enough to sell.

If you didn't think this was going to really bad you had your fingers stuffed in your ears.
by CnC
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:05 pm
CnC wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:32 pm But wow seems like I was just one of dozens who cashed out before the drop and they all went even further than I did. I wonder why none mention it before :confused
Because they knew that they would get the same warm response that you did. 8-)
Yea some company is nice, stay safe out there. Good luck to everyone with all the shutdowns.

Bought 10k on Friday.
by CnC
Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Hustlinghustling wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:05 pm
Bit of a role reversal going on here :)
I'm just wondering where all these fellow market timers were when I was getting booed off the stage 2 months ago. :wink:

But wow seems like I was just one of dozens who cashed out before the drop and they all went even further than I did. I wonder why none mention it before :confused
by CnC
Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not liquidate?
Replies: 48
Views: 5015

Re: Why not liquidate?

Right now there are 100's if not 1000's of labs that are testing every kind of drug known to man on the Virus. Early reports are that some of these drugs are showing positive results. See the link... https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/bayer-preps-u-s-donation-malaria-med-chloroquine-to-help-covid-19-fight-report Imagine if there is an announcement tomorrow that a daily dose of some cheap, widely available, drug can make one immune to the virus. The stock market would rebound instantly and you would be on the sideline watching. I'm not saying it will, or won't, happen because no one knows. Well I will say that that won't happen because I do know. That is not how drugs or viruses work. I don't disagree with your premise, but you have to at ...
by CnC
Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Another day another Stock futures drop, hit 'limit down' halt, as extreme trading continues amid coronavirus crisis Looks like my new policy of buying 20k every other day and only buying the dips is paying off. Stretching out my buy in time a bit due to the abysmal way this is being handled and understood by the population in general. I guess I don't entirely understand buying into a market that is clearly trending down, I get the whole market timing thing, but to continue to buy when you can buy the next day for several percent cheaper just doesn't make a lot of sense. I went 75% in to cash a month ago and very glad that I did, I'm retired (early so no SSI yet) so not contributing anymore, even tho I had a couple years cash emergency fund...
by CnC
Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: End of corporate stock buybacks??
Replies: 75
Views: 5612

Re: End of corporate stock buybacks??

The problem is stock buybacks or repurchases is when executives or boards of directors are compensated based on targets such as earnings per share (EPS). All else being equal if the number of shares on the secondary market decreases, the price of the stock increases and so does EPS by default. So execs and directors of publicly traded companies can juice their compensation at the expense of the company and other shareholders who become bagholders... It's a perverse system. This is very true. for the bailouts rather than the government give them money. Each of these companies should sell xxx shares to the US government for whatever the going rate is. To fund the bailout. It may hurt stock prices but it will be a more realistic value of the ...
by CnC
Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"
Replies: 25
Views: 2639

Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

LiterallyIronic wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:53 am
GoldenFinch wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:45 am The panic is just beginning.
Really? It feels like it's winding down to me. Everyone did their panic buying already and now everyone is in the middle of just chillin' until the end of the month. Then back to normal on April 1.
Naw, the panic will hit once we have 500-1000 dying in the us each day.

Not being an alarmist in any way, it will happen we have 5x the population of Italy, we are not going to do 5x better than Italy is and Italy just lost 475 people today and they are still going up.


If we get to the same point Italy is right now that is nearly 2500 deaths a day I don't think we will get that bad, but even if we do twice the job Italy did that over 1,000 deaths every day.
by CnC
Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Stretching out my buy in time a bit due to the abysmal way this is being handled and understood by the population in general. Now, that's the first time I've seen you make a judgment call like that, but I concur. This is unlikely to play out by your original timeline of the end of this week. Mine is stretched out too, compared to what you were doing, but I might be all-in by early-mid April. Most important to me is that the money is back in before people en masse start to see the light at the end of the tunnel, so to speak. The mechanics of the market are still very intact, and the FED buying back corporate paper is an awesome reprieve that should help things float along for a couple of months without a cascade of bankruptcies that could e...
by CnC
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Another day another
Stock futures drop, hit 'limit down' halt, as extreme trading continues amid coronavirus crisis

Looks like my new policy of buying 20k every other day and only buying the dips is paying off.


Stretching out my buy in time a bit due to the abysmal way this is being handled and understood by the population in general.
by CnC
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"
Replies: 25
Views: 2639

Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

Tigermoose wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:35 am I reallocated from a more conservative retirement fund to straight S&P 500. I'm doing 1/2 tomorrow and 1/2 Friday. Trade should execute end of day tomorrow. All future 403b contributions will be into the S&P 500 index. Once my mortgage refinance finishes (long story), we plan on investing the cash out. We are thinking about investing 100k into the Vanguard Total Stock Market fund, and the remainder in a safer treasury fund.

i'm backing the truck up and loading up. :moneybag :sharebeer :moneybag


Good luck!

Could I suggest that you do 50% today after the big drop. Then hold off for the bump and buy the remainder back in on Monday after the Friday bump gets wiped out.
by CnC
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

an_asker wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:40 pm
CnC wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:14 pm Guys please don't argue and fight about American exceptionalism or ignorance. That is not the point of the thread.

Stick to economics and the market. If you want to talk about coronavirus get on Reddit.
r/coronavirus or r/china_flu
Are you still waiting on blessings from Bogleheads? :oops:
No, I just don't want it to get political and get locked.
by CnC
Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Anyone with a bit more history here than me care to weigh in and explain if this is normal? These kinds of swings are the signature of a standard, run-of-the-mill bear market. While the magnitude of these swings has been a tick higher than in recent bear markets (I think due to the nature of the virus and the uniqueness and uncertainty surrounding this type of event), these types of seesaw days are pretty typical. 2008 had wild swings on the upside and the downside for weeks and months. I would also caution against seeing trends like the one you described. Tomorrow might very well be another up day. We're so hard-wired to detect patterns, and it works...until it doesn't. This is why I am asking. In 2008 I didn't have enough money to invest...
by CnC
Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Stocks bounce back today and will then drop tomorrow. This market is becoming so predictable it is scary. If I can see this it means it's obvious to anyone who really works the markets. Does anyone out there think that this is going to cause markets to seasaw even more rapidly? I would NEVER do this but for the past 2 weeks or so it seems like you should buy Monday afternoon then sell Tuesday after the rally then buy again on the drop on Wednesday. We are seeing 5% swings down and up every other day. This concerns me. Not that it will change my behavior (other than perhaps not buy the day we have a random 10% rally and buy 2x as much the next day after the drop.) Anyone with a bit more history here than me care to weigh in and explain if th...
by CnC
Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The Black Swan is Here
Replies: 164
Views: 21659

Re: The Black Swan is Here

GoldenFinch wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:08 pm
CnC wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:41 am
TravelforFun wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:54 am We've been talking about it forever on this forum but I think it's here. The stock market is crashing, public places are closed, stores ran out of stuff, people will soon lose their jobs, and no antidote for the plague yet.

In time like this, this retired person is glad that I have 10 years of annual expenses in cash and bonds and don't have to worry about losing my job.

What are your defense strategies?

TravelforFun
As per my thread on the matter I sold down to 50/50 in January when the market was at an all-time high.

I'm slowly buying back in 10k a day.
All that luck we wished you may pay off! :beer
Thanks!
by CnC
Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

halfnine wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:34 pm
bluquark wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:08 pm I truly doubt the market will be back to Friday's levels before you finish DCAing a month from now, but what do I know. It was indeed a crazy day. I put in a TLH mutual fund order on Friday 1pm when the market was up only 4%...
The problem with market timing is fighting the Fed. At least that was what I learned a few years back.
Looks like the Fed is getting punched out this time...
But, you never know. Plus, people still have to get back in. And by the time they do the Fed might have gotten back up from the count.
Isn't the fed out of bullets?
by CnC
Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157430

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Klang, ouch that's some useful info. I never considered the fact that simply we won't be able to test more than x per day.


Well 20k plunked down today (a confession I didn't buy Friday despite my pledge to do so) market going up 10% for no apparent reason was too much for me.


IDK if that's a good or bad thing that I didn't buy on Friday in the long run.