Search found 943 matches

by CnC
Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any other investors with 70/30 portfolio?
Replies: 110
Views: 20633

Re: Any other investors with 70/30 portfolio?

Any others with 70% stocks/ 30% bonds like I currently have and hope to hold for years. And, what are your plans? Age 45, I have a Federal government Pension and invested in TSP. Just wanted to mention, 70/30 with a govt pension is not the same as a normal person with a 70/30. I have a govt pension...
by CnC
Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

I can guarantee you that stocks will be lower than today. Interestingly the day the op said this was the lowest we've seen so far. We could always go down again but we are almost 30% higher today than 23rd March. Crystal ball broke I guess. :oops: Yep, Hey I'll take being wrong on the way back up. ...
by CnC
Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

I can guarantee you that stocks will be lower than today. Interestingly the day the op said this was the lowest we've seen so far. We could always go down again but we are almost 30% higher today than 23rd March. Crystal ball broke I guess. :oops: Yep, Hey I'll take being wrong on the way back up. ...
by CnC
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any other investors with 70/30 portfolio?
Replies: 110
Views: 20633

Re: Any other investors with 70/30 portfolio?

Any others with 70% stocks/ 30% bonds like I currently have and hope to hold for years. And, what are your plans? Age 45, I have a Federal government Pension and invested in TSP. Just wanted to mention, 70/30 with a govt pension is not the same as a normal person with a 70/30. I have a govt pension...
by CnC
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If I were a retiree right now....
Replies: 83
Views: 11747

Re: If I were a retiree right now....

Raybo wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:43 pm Posting
Another
Nutty
Investment
Comment
Still too many Rosy posts for me.

I'll feel better when the board is full of nothing but these threads, it will mean the light will show soon.
by CnC
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 64655

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

As per Warren Buffet's thinking, the Market is "Significantly overvalued" https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php And if you ask Robert Shiller, he would probably tell you the same thing :( https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe Thanks for sharing the Buffet indicator :beer Honestly who is...
by CnC
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

My problem is that everyone who is optimistic about the near term future has not really talked about the actual statistics. If someone is optimistic please let me know how you are accounting for these troubles. Perhaps I may be overly concerned. Show me I am wrong. 1)The us cases are still in expon...
by CnC
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

I don't see today's rally as a dead cat bounce. There's sentiment afoot that the US will reopen, that the Fed's unlimited QE, and the massive stimulus bill will come through. If those things happen, the worst is over. That said, the coronavirus numbers are still going to get much, much worse in the...
by CnC
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

I don't see today's rally as a dead cat bounce. There's sentiment afoot that the US will reopen, that the Fed's unlimited QE, and the massive stimulus bill will come through. If those things happen, the worst is over. That said, the coronavirus numbers are still going to get much, much worse in the...
by CnC
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 64655

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

I think that it is really really foolish to think the bottom is behind us when things haven't even gotten bad yet. The curve is still sloping up, we won't be at the bottom until we see it leveling off at the least because deaths will increase x4 after new cases level off. To think it's all over bec...
by CnC
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So.... is this really "it"? Is this what we needed to mentally prepare for?
Replies: 158
Views: 14492

Re: So.... is this really "it"? Is this what we needed to mentally prepare for?

Stay humble. This isn’t even close to being done with. So you're a market timer? You know stocks will continue to go down? Not a market timer. Just saying we are not out of the woods, not even close. ...that's market timing. This thread is talking about the stock market, not peoples health. So if y...
by CnC
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 64655

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

I’m learning from the FIRE club and boggle fans that nobody really knows if we hit bottom already. But everyone tries to guess and speculate. So are you thinking the bottom is probably in the review mirror? Or are you thinking we really have not priced in more bad news to come? I think that it is r...
by CnC
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 741
Views: 108779

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

So any update? Will the 4% rule fail this time? I was just thinking that an update is probably in order for this thread after the onset of the current bear market. Using the 60/40 portfolio described in the OP, the theoretical year 2000 retirees would, as of today, have a nominal balance of $779,56...
by CnC
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Now - what to do? THE HARDEST PART is when to get back in and not miss too much of the upcoming up side! C&C - thanks for sticking to your guns and if I can help you or vice versa - just let me know. I really think NOW is a perfect time for DCA. I can guarantee you that stocks will be lower than to...
by CnC
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 9212

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

Lockdown likely until June. https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2020-03-22/us-coronavirus-lockdown-to-last-10-12-weeks-top-trump-official-says I really don't see how we avoid a depression. Can you explain why you think this will cause a multiple decade bear market? Can you please quote me where...
by CnC
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 9212

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

A virus will create a 30+ year bear market? No, but there was a fair amount of evidence that the market was overvalued and that we are entering a period of secular stagnation. The virus just pricked the bubble. It might be like WWI. The killing of a grand duke dis not cause the war, it was just the...
by CnC
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 372
Views: 38255

Re: It's Not Different This Time

A lot of newer forum participants have been surprised to see so many supposed Bogleheads panicking, selling low, market timing, picking individual stocks etc. They are surprised because they thought Bogleheads didn't do this stuff. Indeed, their mentor, Jack Bogle, said I've said "Stay the course" ...
by CnC
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

CnC, are you getting back in? Yep Yes I'm trying to stay neutral and 3rd party on this but the way businesses governments both big and small and the general population all seem to know we are standing on tracks and we hear the whistle blowing and no one really has a plan yet to show how we are goin...
by CnC
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

I did not read anything where anyone claimed to have special powers to time the market. I read that some people evaluated a situation and changed their normal behavior based on information. They do not need to be mocked or criticized because someone else has zero tolerance for the ability to think....
by CnC
Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Unless someone has posted the moves prior to the transactions they mean nothing. I posted afterward but provided proof of the transactions. It didn't matter. Several would have had me banned if it was in their ability. Can you link me to the proof of your transactions? At the bottom of this post . ...
by CnC
Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

No one knew it would be this bad, In 2003 we experienced SARS in China,and the SP 500 was up 29%, No one knew that this Corona Virus would spread so rapidly I had a pretty good idea. I new it would be atleast half this bad. Still bad enough to sell. If you didn't think this was going to really bad ...
by CnC
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

No one knew it would be this bad, In 2003 we experienced SARS in China,and the SP 500 was up 29%, No one knew that this Corona Virus would spread so rapidly I had a pretty good idea. I new it would be atleast half this bad. Still bad enough to sell. If you didn't think this was going to really bad ...
by CnC
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

But wow seems like I was just one of dozens who cashed out before the drop and they all went even further than I did. I wonder why none mention it before :confused Because they knew that they would get the same warm response that you did. 8-) Yea some company is nice, stay safe out there. Good luck...
by CnC
Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Bit of a role reversal going on here :) I'm just wondering where all these fellow market timers were when I was getting booed off the stage 2 months ago. :wink: But wow seems like I was just one of dozens who cashed out before the drop and they all went even further than I did. I wonder why none me...
by CnC
Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not liquidate?
Replies: 48
Views: 4466

Re: Why not liquidate?

Right now there are 100's if not 1000's of labs that are testing every kind of drug known to man on the Virus. Early reports are that some of these drugs are showing positive results. See the link... https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/bayer-preps-u-s-donation-malaria-med-chloroquine-to-help-covid-...
by CnC
Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Another day another Stock futures drop, hit 'limit down' halt, as extreme trading continues amid coronavirus crisis Looks like my new policy of buying 20k every other day and only buying the dips is paying off. Stretching out my buy in time a bit due to the abysmal way this is being handled and und...
by CnC
Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: End of corporate stock buybacks??
Replies: 75
Views: 4619

Re: End of corporate stock buybacks??

The problem is stock buybacks or repurchases is when executives or boards of directors are compensated based on targets such as earnings per share (EPS). All else being equal if the number of shares on the secondary market decreases, the price of the stock increases and so does EPS by default. So e...
by CnC
Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"
Replies: 25
Views: 2256

Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

The panic is just beginning. Really? It feels like it's winding down to me. Everyone did their panic buying already and now everyone is in the middle of just chillin' until the end of the month. Then back to normal on April 1. Naw, the panic will hit once we have 500-1000 dying in the us each day. ...
by CnC
Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Stretching out my buy in time a bit due to the abysmal way this is being handled and understood by the population in general. Now, that's the first time I've seen you make a judgment call like that, but I concur. This is unlikely to play out by your original timeline of the end of this week. Mine i...
by CnC
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Another day another Stock futures drop, hit 'limit down' halt, as extreme trading continues amid coronavirus crisis Looks like my new policy of buying 20k every other day and only buying the dips is paying off. Stretching out my buy in time a bit due to the abysmal way this is being handled and unde...
by CnC
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"
Replies: 25
Views: 2256

Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

I reallocated from a more conservative retirement fund to straight S&P 500. I'm doing 1/2 tomorrow and 1/2 Friday. Trade should execute end of day tomorrow. All future 403b contributions will be into the S&P 500 index. Once my mortgage refinance finishes (long story), we plan on investing the cash ...
by CnC
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Guys please don't argue and fight about American exceptionalism or ignorance. That is not the point of the thread. Stick to economics and the market. If you want to talk about coronavirus get on Reddit. r/coronavirus or r/china_flu Are you still waiting on blessings from Bogleheads? :oops: No, I ju...
by CnC
Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Anyone with a bit more history here than me care to weigh in and explain if this is normal? These kinds of swings are the signature of a standard, run-of-the-mill bear market. While the magnitude of these swings has been a tick higher than in recent bear markets (I think due to the nature of the vi...
by CnC
Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Stocks bounce back today and will then drop tomorrow. This market is becoming so predictable it is scary. If I can see this it means it's obvious to anyone who really works the markets. Does anyone out there think that this is going to cause markets to seasaw even more rapidly? I would NEVER do this...
by CnC
Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The Black Swan is Here
Replies: 164
Views: 19504

Re: The Black Swan is Here

We've been talking about it forever on this forum but I think it's here. The stock market is crashing, public places are closed, stores ran out of stuff, people will soon lose their jobs, and no antidote for the plague yet. In time like this, this retired person is glad that I have 10 years of annu...
by CnC
Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

I truly doubt the market will be back to Friday's levels before you finish DCAing a month from now, but what do I know. It was indeed a crazy day. I put in a TLH mutual fund order on Friday 1pm when the market was up only 4%... The problem with market timing is fighting the Fed. At least that was w...
by CnC
Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Klang, ouch that's some useful info. I never considered the fact that simply we won't be able to test more than x per day. Well 20k plunked down today (a confession I didn't buy Friday despite my pledge to do so) market going up 10% for no apparent reason was too much for me. IDK if that's a good or...
by CnC
Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% bonds
Replies: 37
Views: 2598

Re: 100% bonds

Every one knows you did it on time. The problem is that dozens of posters try to time the market throughout the months and years and most of them don’t work out. Dan Mahoney and Market Timer come to mind in recent past. So eventually, the market will decline. And THEN finally some poster will actua...
by CnC
Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% bonds
Replies: 37
Views: 2598

Re: 100% bonds

A month ago this would’ve been lucky. Today it would be a reckless strategy, even if it be and lucky once again. I don't know if I would consider it "luck". MacroVoices and MacroVision was reporting on this in JAN and said there was real risk involved. On top of that there was the CAPE going parabo...
by CnC
Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% bonds
Replies: 37
Views: 2598

Re: 100% bonds

A month ago this would’ve been lucky. Today it would be a reckless strategy, even if it be and lucky once again. I don't know if I would consider it "luck". MacroVoices and MacroVision was reporting on this in JAN and said there was real risk involved. On top of that there was the CAPE going parabo...
by CnC
Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Well looks like another day another drop.


I hope the drops level out by the time in done buying in.
by CnC
Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% bonds
Replies: 37
Views: 2598

Re: 100% bonds

Tellurius wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:16 am I am talking more about 100% actual bonds though, not cash.
Switching to 100% bonds sounds like quite possibly the worst thing you could do short of starting up a travel agency.
by CnC
Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The Black Swan is Here
Replies: 164
Views: 19504

Re: The Black Swan is Here

We've been talking about it forever on this forum but I think it's here. The stock market is crashing, public places are closed, stores ran out of stuff, people will soon lose their jobs, and no antidote for the plague yet. In time like this, this retired person is glad that I have 10 years of annu...
by CnC
Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Gird your loins boys. The fed just cut a whole point. My state shut down all bars restaurants and schools. We are under two weeks away from a full national lockdown I have no idea where the bottom of this will be. ±2000 maybe lower? A 50% drawdown is not out of the question at all anymore IMHO. Yes...
by CnC
Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Gird your loins boys. The fed just cut a whole point.

My state shut down all bars restaurants and schools. We are under two weeks away from a full national lockdown I have no idea where the bottom of this will be.

±2000 maybe lower?
by CnC
Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 38474

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

rustymutt wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:48 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:17 pm So did we hit the low today?
Maybe. But my personal opinion isn't one you'll like.
Maybe another 20% down next week.

If so, I'll buy into a fund.

It has ±30% to drop after that.
by CnC
Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Guys please don't argue and fight about American exceptionalism or ignorance. That is not the point of the thread.

Stick to economics and the market. If you want to talk about coronavirus get on Reddit.
r/coronavirus or r/china_flu
by CnC
Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

I’m always amazed when the data is so clear, and yet people act as if we don’t know what is going to happen. So here goes: 1 - Italy, the world’s 8th largest economy, has shut down. 2 - Most of Europe has now implemented similar, preventative measures, that we see in Italy. Still, based on growth r...
by CnC
Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

I don't know markets rebounded nearly 10% in one day today. Slow and steady back in may be too slow. Are you feeling the urge to go all back in yet?? Or will you stick to the plan? Of course I feel urges, but there is no data to back them up so I'm ignoring them. Certainly wish I would have bought ...