Search found 174 matches

by Rob1
Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where to leave money when we die
Replies: 68
Views: 5111

Re: Where to leave money when we die

Consider giving it to a charity like Givewell, which gives to charities around the world that they have rigorously evaluated for effectiveness. Currently they are buying malaria nets for children in sub-Saharan Africa. The idea is to save as many lives as possible for each dollar they distribute. H...
by Rob1
Wed Feb 05, 2020 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Personal Advisor Service
Replies: 6
Views: 998

Re: Vanguard Personal Advisor Service

I’ve been working with PAS for years on the behalf of two relatives. The experience has be very good. You work with one assigned adviser that sticks with your account - unless they are promoted or move on of course.

I’d be happy to answer any questions you may have.
by Rob1
Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Withdrawl Rates Based on CAPE
Replies: 34
Views: 2352

Re: Withdrawl Rates Based on CAPE

My understanding is that CAPE is best used for forecasting the next ~10-year period. Has anyone experimented with using CAPE for the next 10-year period, and something else (like historical returns) for the future years? I’m particularly interested in doing this within a TVM framework for withdrawal...
by Rob1
Mon Dec 30, 2019 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Vanguard's Forecast for Expected Returns in Models
Replies: 83
Views: 4188

Re: Using Vanguard's Forecast for Expected Returns in Models

It would be nice to see that ability added to Siamond’s TVM spreadsheet (not sure I know how to implement it properly). After the rant I just posted, you can understand that my motivation is rather low to do something like that! Sorry! :wink: :twisted: Plus I wouldn't know where to begin, all we ha...
by Rob1
Mon Dec 30, 2019 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Vanguard's Forecast for Expected Returns in Models
Replies: 83
Views: 4188

Re: Using Vanguard's Forecast for Expected Returns in Models

I think using any kind of forecast is likely better than historic averages, at least for the purposes of PMT/TVM calculations. It doesn't need to be perfect, it just needs to be an improvement over nothing. And I think the 25 years of failure from CAPE is a decent argument against using something e...
by Rob1
Mon Dec 30, 2019 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Vanguard's Forecast for Expected Returns in Models
Replies: 83
Views: 4188

Re: Using Vanguard's Forecast for Expected Returns in Models

DB2 wrote:
Mon Dec 30, 2019 9:34 am
I think the role of the Fed played a bigger part than what these models might have been factoring.
That’s exactly what Joe Davis said on the podcast.
by Rob1
Sun Dec 29, 2019 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Vanguard's Forecast for Expected Returns in Models
Replies: 83
Views: 4188

Re: Using Vanguard's Forecast for Expected Returns in Models

Why are Vanguard's forecasts any better than BlackRock or Robeco or BNYMellon or JPMorgan or ResearchAffiliates or GMO? (Okay, they're probably better than GMO.) I'd take an average of several sources if you're going to use them. Hey AlohaJoe. I was hoping you would chime in. Well, Vanguard seems t...
by Rob1
Sun Dec 29, 2019 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Vanguard's Forecast for Expected Returns in Models
Replies: 83
Views: 4188

Re: Using Vanguard's Forecast for Expected Returns in Models

I only focus on the things I can control: 1.) Maximizing savings rate 2.) Fees and costs 3.) Avoiding behavioral mistakes Vanguard (or any forecast) does absolutely nothing to help me with any of the things I can control. In short, completely useless. I admire your focus :happy I should have been m...
by Rob1
Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Vanguard's Forecast for Expected Returns in Models
Replies: 83
Views: 4188

Using Vanguard's Forecast for Expected Returns in Models

On the recent Bogleheads podcast, Vanguard's Chief Economist, Joe Davis, claims that their forecasts are twice as accurate as historical average and forecasts "Bob Shiller made famous." With that in mind, I'm curious what others think about using Vanguard's forecasts in models - such as spreadsheets...
by Rob1
Sun Dec 15, 2019 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rethinking Financial Education
Replies: 8
Views: 1027

Re: Rethinking Financial Education

Why one spouse tends to be the CFO of the family (not as obvious as I thought) I thought this part was good. when couples first get together, they divide up various tasks that you know, things that couples need to divide up, one of which is money. And we find that when couples start their relations...
by Rob1
Sun Dec 15, 2019 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rethinking Financial Education
Replies: 8
Views: 1027

Rethinking Financial Education

I really enjoyed this episode of Morningstar's The Long View podcast, titled "Rethinking Financial Education". The guest was John Lynch of the Leeds School of Business (CU Boulder). Several good topics were discussed including: The importance of 'just-in-time education' Theories on how to teach chil...
by Rob1
Tue Nov 26, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's your FIRECALC number?
Replies: 58
Views: 8262

Re: What's your FIRECALC number?

When we had a financial planner, we sat down and ran through some scenarios using MC simulation and they told me they felt good with a plan for most scenarios north of 80% success rate. I spoke with a Vanguard CFP that said the same - they look for 80% or better (based on Vanguard’s MC simulation)....
by Rob1
Tue Nov 26, 2019 12:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's your FIRECALC number?
Replies: 58
Views: 8262

Re: What's your FIRECALC number?

When we had a financial planner, we sat down and ran through some scenarios using MC simulation and they told me they felt good with a plan for most scenarios north of 80% success rate. I spoke with a Vanguard CFP that said the same - they look for 80% or better (based on Vanguard’s MC simulation)....
by Rob1
Tue Nov 26, 2019 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's your FIRECALC number?
Replies: 58
Views: 8262

Re: What's your FIRECALC number?

When we had a financial planner, we sat down and ran through some scenarios using MC simulation and they told me they felt good with a plan for most scenarios north of 80% success rate. I spoke with a Vanguard CFP that said the same - they look for 80% or better (based on Vanguard’s MC simulation).
by Rob1
Sat Nov 23, 2019 5:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using the Time Value of Money Formula to Determine Withdrawals: Year 2000 Retiree Example
Replies: 148
Views: 12682

Re: Using the Time Value of Money Formula to Determine Withdrawals: Year 2000 Retiree Example

That's not a bad idea at all. By using one's remaining life expectancy every year, it will have the effect of gradually reducing one's withdrawal rate, ceterus paribus , which is what happens to most retirees' spending naturally. But the question is how to estimate one's life expectancy. The SS Adm...
by Rob1
Sat Nov 23, 2019 5:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Spending money to make travel easier and luxurious?
Replies: 85
Views: 8300

Re: Spending money to make travel easier and luxurious?

Recent purchase: noise cancelling AirPod Pro headsets, which I plan on testing on a domestic flight soon. Hoping they can replace my large over-ear sets - at least for some flights (with the understanding they may not work quite as well). I’m always looking for ways to carry less.
by Rob1
Sat Nov 23, 2019 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Spending money to make travel easier and luxurious?
Replies: 85
Views: 8300

Re: Spending money to make travel easier and luxurious?

Great thread! Pretty much all of my suggestions have been made. I’ll emphasize my two important categories:

Good travel gear: luggage, headsets, clothing, things that save space or are lighter, etc.

Conveniences and time savers: lodging in the best locations, nonstop flights, high speed trains, etc.
by Rob1
Sat Nov 23, 2019 4:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using the Time Value of Money Formula to Determine Withdrawals: Year 2000 Retiree Example
Replies: 148
Views: 12682

Re: Using the Time Value of Money Formula to Determine Withdrawals: Year 2000 Retiree Example

The method may be improved by using n as the remaining life expectancy at each age. That's not a bad idea at all. By using one's remaining life expectancy every year, it will have the effect of gradually reducing one's withdrawal rate, ceterus paribus , which is what happens to most retirees' spend...
by Rob1
Sat Nov 23, 2019 4:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using the Time Value of Money Formula to Determine Withdrawals: Year 2000 Retiree Example
Replies: 148
Views: 12682

Re: Using the Time Value of Money Formula to Determine Withdrawals: Year 2000 Retiree Example

The method may be improved by using n as the remaining life expectancy at each age. That's not a bad idea at all. By using one's remaining life expectancy every year, it will have the effect of gradually reducing one's withdrawal rate, ceterus paribus , which is what happens to most retirees' spend...
by Rob1
Sat Nov 23, 2019 2:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using the Time Value of Money Formula to Determine Withdrawals: Year 2000 Retiree Example
Replies: 148
Views: 12682

Re: Using the Time Value of Money Formula to Determine Withdrawals: Year 2000 Retiree Example

siamond wrote:
Thu Nov 14, 2019 1:15 pm
After having a few in-depth discussions with local Bogleheads who are close to retirement and running a few models with them, I improved a bit the Time Value of Money spreadsheet that I developed a little while ago...
Huge thanks for the update!
by Rob1
Thu Nov 21, 2019 2:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Keep or sell inherited municipal bonds
Replies: 26
Views: 1525

Re: Keep or sell inherited municipal bonds

Darn, you all have me double guessing my original plan :?
by Rob1
Thu Nov 21, 2019 2:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Keep or sell inherited municipal bonds
Replies: 26
Views: 1525

Re: Keep or sell inherited municipal bonds

I’ll offer a contrary opinion. Anything else I’d say sell but the holdings are small and very near to maturity. You’ll take a beating on an attempted sale. Ignore the stated market value. You won’t get it Just hold them to maturity. Gill Good point. Yes, unlikely I’d get the stated market value.
by Rob1
Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Keep or sell inherited municipal bonds
Replies: 26
Views: 1525

Re: Keep or sell inherited municipal bonds

CRTR wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:50 pm
tj wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:07 pm
Why would you sell at those interest rates? I'd hold and collect the interest.
+1
Default and inflation risk, I suppose.
by Rob1
Wed Nov 20, 2019 8:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Keep or sell inherited municipal bonds
Replies: 26
Views: 1525

Re: Keep or sell inherited municipal bonds

Thanks for all the replies. They have validated my thinking: if these bonds (or similar) aren't part of my current portfolio, then there is likely no good reason for them to be part of my portfolio now
by Rob1
Wed Nov 20, 2019 8:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Keep or sell inherited municipal bonds
Replies: 26
Views: 1525

Re: Keep or sell inherited municipal bonds

123 wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 7:55 pm
Sell ASAP. Since the bonds are not for your state there may be an issue of amortizing the bond premium value (the extent to which the value of the bond exceeds par value) if you are in a state with an income tax. Potentially a headache.
I hadn't thought of this. Thanks!
by Rob1
Wed Nov 20, 2019 5:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Keep or sell inherited municipal bonds
Replies: 26
Views: 1525

Keep or sell inherited municipal bonds

I'm inheriting some municipal bonds. Should I keep or sell these? Bond A Face Value $5,000 Interest 4.375% Maturity 6/2021 Market Value $5,248 Bond B Face Value $10,000 Interest 6.125% Maturity 11/2025 Market Value $12,229 Personal Details: I do NOT live in the same state as the munis are for My fed...
by Rob1
Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 342
Views: 25858

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

I can't find the webpage, but I've seen it linked in the forum a couple of times, where it basically says a success rate of 95% is fine, because you can't predict an asteroid crashing into us, or WWIII starting, or some other huge disaster. "But history teaches us that depriving ourselves to boost ...
by Rob1
Thu Oct 24, 2019 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Surviving Spouse Credit Card Question
Replies: 27
Views: 2461

Re: Surviving Spouse Credit Card Question

If it's a jointly owned credit card account, the wife is still on the hook for the existing balances. Card will not be closed. Maybe different companies have different policies but when my wife passed away, both our CC companies (Visa, Discover) told me the same thing. A CC account can have only on...
by Rob1
Thu Oct 24, 2019 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Surviving Spouse Credit Card Question
Replies: 27
Views: 2461

Re: Surviving Spouse Credit Card Question

Hello Rob, My husband and I shared credit cards. And had from the beginning of our marriage decades before, and I had no idea if ours were joint or authorized accounts. I had heard some scare stories that once I contacted the credit cards of my husband's death that my access to credit cards could b...
by Rob1
Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Surviving Spouse Credit Card Question
Replies: 27
Views: 2461

Re: Surviving Spouse Credit Card Question

Thanks @ One Ping. That’s valuable experience sharing.
by Rob1
Wed Oct 23, 2019 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Surviving Spouse Credit Card Question
Replies: 27
Views: 2461

Re: Surviving Spouse Credit Card Question

OP here. Thanks everyone for the wonderful advice/experience.
by Rob1
Wed Oct 23, 2019 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Surviving Spouse Credit Card Question
Replies: 27
Views: 2461

Surviving Spouse Credit Card Question

There has been a death in the family, and I am helping sort out financial issues. The couple shared a credit card account with two credit cards, one for the husband and one for the wife. The name on the statements is the deceased husband, so I assume that the wife’s card will be cancelled along with...
by Rob1
Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard keeps pushing their financial advisors...why?
Replies: 102
Views: 9591

Re: Vanguard keeps pushing their financial advisors...why?

Advice and technology are currently core focuses for Vanguard. Tim Buckley, Vanguard’s CEO, in a recent blog post: “ Now more than ever, we see investors’ long-term success tied not only to the funds they use but also to the advice they receive. For more than 40 years, we’ve been champions in the mu...
by Rob1
Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Upgrading” a regular Vanguard taxable account to a brokerage account
Replies: 18
Views: 2281

Re: “Upgrading” a regular Vanguard taxable account to a brokerage account

One issue I know of: if someone was granted agent authorization on the account, they will not be granted agent authorization on the upgraded (actually new) account unless they were granted full agent authorization that specifies new accounts as well.
by Rob1
Sun Sep 29, 2019 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Accounting for mortgage in retirement math
Replies: 20
Views: 1889

Re: Accounting for mortgage in retirement math

Option 1 seems easiest and adequate. My method is probably overly complicated. I use a spreadsheet that factors in significant income and expense changes by year (such as my mortgage and estimated social security benefits). A maximum yearly withdrawal amount is then estimated using the time value of...
by Rob1
Sat Sep 28, 2019 5:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 100% Self managing Solo401K with Vanguard
Replies: 15
Views: 1497

Re: 100% Self managing Solo401K with Vanguard

It is not that complicated and you can call Vanguard if you have questions. The hardest part would be filing form 5500 for the first time (if/when required). The instructions Vanguard supplies are so so - but again, you can call them for assistance. I suggest keeping a copy of the completed form alo...
by Rob1
Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financing Company Car (one person corporation)
Replies: 7
Views: 650

Re: Financing Company Car (one person corporation)

Closing the loop... I ended up having the corporation finance through one of the major banks at a fairly reasonable rate of 4%. That’’s a little higher than rates quoted on a personal loan. However, I opted for the cleaner - and likely more appropriate - option of keeping the loan and title under th...
by Rob1
Thu Sep 12, 2019 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area budget for $350k family income
Replies: 94
Views: 7971

Re: Bay Area budget for $350k family income

San Francisco - 49 square miles surrounded by reality

[although a truly wonderful 49 square miles in many ways]
by Rob1
Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules
Replies: 274
Views: 22493

Re: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules

Another relevant perspective. This one from from Vanguard CEO Tim Buckley: "I would say with most Vanguard shareholders in retirement, they live below their means. You both have seen that time and time again. And when times get tough, they cut down their savings—which they should do—but they do that...
by Rob1
Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules
Replies: 274
Views: 22493

Re: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules

Seems like a somewhat relevant perspective again here... One somewhat relevant perspective... "But history teaches us that depriving ourselves to boost our 40-year success probability much beyond 80% is a fool’s errand, since all you are doing is increasing the probability of failure for political, ...
by Rob1
Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Frustrated with Vanguard advisory service] Procedures on Death of a Spouse
Replies: 47
Views: 4976

Re: Vanguard Insane (?) Procedures on Death of a Spouse

eucalyptus, so sorry for your loss. My dad experienced the same upon the passing of my mom - accounts frozen, unenrolled from Personal Advisory Services, transition team assigned to help. In addition, I was automatically removed as an agent. Next, the transition team helped settle accounts. Then, w...
by Rob1
Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Frustrated with Vanguard advisory service] Procedures on Death of a Spouse
Replies: 47
Views: 4976

Re: Vanguard Insane (?) Procedures on Death of a Spouse

eucalyptus, so sorry for your loss. My dad experienced the same upon the passing of my mom - accounts frozen, unenrolled from Personal Advisory Services, transition team assigned to help. In addition, I was automatically removed as an agent. Next, the transition team helped settle accounts. Then, we...
by Rob1
Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules
Replies: 274
Views: 22493

Re: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules

Saying that the SWR for a 50 year retirement is 2% means that it will take anywhere from 8-15 additional years of saving for a typical investor to get there vs. the 3.5% SWR that Bengen and now Kitces suggest. That's a lot of additional guaranteed time 'lost' in order to prepare for something signi...
by Rob1
Sun Sep 08, 2019 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules
Replies: 274
Views: 22493

Re: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules

The flexible withdrawal strategy that appeals to me the most is the time value of money formula . Using this formula, for an anticipated 50 year retirement, your assumption of 3% real returns would result in a current withdrawal of 3.89% of the portfolio's current value. Rather than using 3% real r...
by Rob1
Sun Sep 08, 2019 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules
Replies: 274
Views: 22493

Re: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules

The flexible withdrawal strategy that appeals to me the most is the time value of money formula . Using this formula, for an anticipated 50 year retirement, your assumption of 3% real returns would result in a current withdrawal of 3.89% of the portfolio's current value. Rather than using 3% real r...
by Rob1
Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financing Company Car (one person corporation)
Replies: 7
Views: 650

Re: Financing Company Car (one person corporation)

Some of the major banks will do vehicle loans to corporations at similar rates to personal loans. Just takes longer to look and you usually have to speak with someone in person. We've also done the "loan the business" funds to buy the car as well. Our CPA made us write a generic promissory note, pl...
by Rob1
Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financing Company Car (one person corporation)
Replies: 7
Views: 650

Re: Financing Company Car (one person corporation)

It sounds like the answer is the 6% loan. Alternatively buy it as an individual and lease it back to the company. Goal33, definitely something I’m considering. Actually more along the lines of having the company buy it outright, and proving a loan to the company each year to get past the cash crunc...
by Rob1
Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financing Company Car (one person corporation)
Replies: 7
Views: 650

Re: Financing Company Car (one person corporation)

It is clear that you are not interested in leasing, however, lease payments can be written-off immediately, reducing the Company's taxable income. As a suggestion, I'd reconsider.... Thanks Sconie. My CPA has run the numbers on past buy/lease decisions, and it has been about a wash financially (dep...
by Rob1
Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financing Company Car (one person corporation)
Replies: 7
Views: 650

Financing Company Car (one person corporation)

I have a one person corporation and plan on purchasing a new company vehicle. Historically, the company has financed a vehicle using the automaker's financing service, and the vehicle has been titled under the company. Unfortunately, for the vehicle I plan to buy, the automaker's interest rate is si...
by Rob1
Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investment complexity is appealing and simplicity isn't
Replies: 65
Views: 3876

Re: Why investment complexity is appealing and simplicity isn't

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.

(often attributed to Leonardo da Vinci, but not sure that’s true)