Search found 333 matches

by Top99%
Mon Nov 19, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where do you get your information? Favorite blogs/sites/resources?
Replies: 25
Views: 2242

Re: Where do you get your information? Favorite blogs/sites/resources?

ERN - https://earlyretirementnow.com/ - The 20+ SWR (safe withdrawal rate) articles can be like drinking from a firehose to consume but I find some of the information valuable. The Retire Early Home Page - http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/chronidx.html - I like the real life retiree investment ret...
by Top99%
Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 7 Investing Rules
Replies: 14
Views: 2360

Re: Larry Swedroe: 7 Investing Rules

I agree this was an excellent article. I think point 5 "Understand That Even Good Strategies Can Have Bad Outcomes" and the impact luck has is underappreciated by many and a good reason to save as much as possible during the accumulation years and diversify. It also points to how difficult it can be...
by Top99%
Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CDs role in Fixed income part of portfolio
Replies: 31
Views: 2882

Re: CDs role in Fixed income part of portfolio

I am also a fan of CD ladders as part of ones fixed income portfolio. I just checked how our rolling 1-2-3 year CD ladder we setup during 2005 for our emergency fund did and it has outpaced inflation by a little bit. So, meeting our expectations.
by Top99%
Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area housing frenzy cooling
Replies: 120
Views: 18304

Re: Bay Area housing frenzy cooling

Here in tech heavy Austin the frenzy is also cooling in spite of record low unemployment and lots of high paying tech jobs. And I see that as a very good thing. Rising interest rates seem to be letting some steam out of the market.
by Top99%
Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taylor's new book is #1
Replies: 32
Views: 6026

Re: Taylor's new book is #1

Congratulations and well done Taylor. :sharebeer
by Top99%
Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns
Replies: 81
Views: 6906

Re: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns

Siamond,

Thanks for putting a lot of effort in creating what I find some really useful charts. Looking back though this data is especially enlightening as the current bull market in US stocks continues to extend its duration lead over all previous US bull markets.
by Top99%
Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: TIPS Versus Nominal Bonds
Replies: 46
Views: 4181

Re: Larry Swedroe: TIPS Versus Nominal Bonds

Thanks for posting an interesting article. I learned a lot from the article itself and the replies on the thread. TIPS + CD ladders seems like a good way to hedge your bets to me. I think the fact that CDs are more of a hassle to deal with earns a bit of a premium as well.
by Top99%
Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Take auto loan 0.9% if I can afford cash?
Replies: 162
Views: 10836

Re: Take auto loan 0.9% if I can afford cash?

Just bought a car for 0% for 72 months. When they asked how much I wanted to put down I said negative $25,000. Sadly they didn't go for that. :mrgreen: Had to settle for zero down.
by Top99%
Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "75 Must Know Statistics About Long-Term Care: 2018 Edition"
Replies: 56
Views: 6035

Re: "75 Must Know Statistics About Long-Term Care: 2018 Edition"

Insurance generally works best for low probability high impact events for both the insured and the insurance companies. What makes LTC problematic is it covers high probability high impact events. Currently still leaning towards self insurance but keeping an open mind.
by Top99%
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Marriage [How should finances be handled?]
Replies: 74
Views: 7821

Re: Marriage [How should finances be handled?]

First of all congratulations! To cover a topic others haven't covered yet, the first question I would ask is do your wife value money the same way? On top of paying for bare necessities money can be used for: 1) Buying stuff (fancy cars, clothing, big houses etc.) 2) Buying experiences (vacations, m...
by Top99%
Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 330
Views: 26028

Re: Invest in Tesla?

I wouldn't bet on our against Tesla or any other single stock. Been there done that prior to the tech bubble. I think their energy storage business actually might be more disruptive than their EV business. Also, if Tesla runs into financial trouble and their market cap crashes I think Apple would st...
by Top99%
Fri Jul 20, 2018 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I may have understood why it's so hard to save and invest
Replies: 75
Views: 11473

Re: I may have understood why it's so hard to save and invest

1-month equivalent paycheck (1500$) If you net $18k / year, it is actually incredibly impressive that you're managing to save 8% of that. That is not easy. No wonder it feels hard. Keep doing it anyway. You're awesome. Completely agree. And clearly you are demonstrating an ability to live on a smal...
by Top99%
Wed Jul 18, 2018 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Know Your Investor Personality
Replies: 26
Views: 2906

Re: Larry Swedroe: Know Your Investor Personality

To put a positive spin on this missive from Swedroe, I think he should write about the "perfect" investor in each category and how that investor behaves and avoids the biases Swedroe listed. :twisted: A written investment policy statement that the investor adheres to is a strong start towards avoid...
by Top99%
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we afford to buy house in Bay Area?
Replies: 19
Views: 2979

Re: Can we afford to buy house in Bay Area?

Facing a difficult financial decision. We live in Bay Area and want to buy a house. Current situation: - Salary + Bonus: 210K - RSU: 300K a year - 401k: ~100K total, maxing out every year - Current house equity: ~400K (assuming I sell it today and exclude all closing costs) - Cash: 250K in money ma...
by Top99%
Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 9556

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

Thanks SimpleGift for providing the data and initiating the discussion on this thread and the previous one. I have learned a lot from both. For "bonds" I think the "safety" factor can be improved by using CDs/bonds with a duration <5 years or TIPS. Duration risk is certainly real and assuming your c...
by Top99%
Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 10 years to lose wealth applicable to bogleheads ?
Replies: 32
Views: 4016

Re: 10 years to lose wealth applicable to bogleheads ?

CarpeDiem22 wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:45 pm
Net Worth, not Income, is the measure of being financially rich. The book Millionaire Next Door should be a must-read for anyone aspiring to be rich.
I would add the sequel "The Millionaire Mind" to that list.
by Top99%
Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to "retire" in your 30's article
Replies: 110
Views: 15457

Re: How to "retire" in your 30's article

Good for you Marc. A lot of people don’t understand that being frugal isn’t painful. Or that you can have a wonderful life without spending a lot. A lot don’t understand wanting to spend all that extra time with your family. I do so yes thank you for sharing. It isn’t always easy to have your life ...
by Top99%
Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity Risk Premium over Two Centuries, 1825-2017
Replies: 27
Views: 2779

Re: Equity Risk Premium over Two Centuries, 1825-2017

jbranx wrote:
Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:04 am
I wanted to add a big thanks to Todd for his hard work on this thread and all the others he posts. Very good, enlightening work.
+1. I don't have anything to add to this thread but I am learning a lot.
by Top99%
Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The cost of reducing portfolio volatility
Replies: 25
Views: 2698

Re: The cost of reducing portfolio volatility

Vineviz, This is an important topic for me so I'm trying to understand what you're suggesting. The main advantage of an equity-heavy portfolio has been the higher rate of return, both expected and realized. Let's use the 60/40 as example. It's not Sharpe-optimal I'm sure. Are you saying investors s...
by Top99%
Wed Jun 27, 2018 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keeping up with inflation
Replies: 24
Views: 2213

Re: Keeping up with inflation

First I think you need to define what inflation means to you: 1) Inflation as measured by the CPI 2) inflation in the price of the basket of goods and services that matter to you. For 1), Social Security and TIPS work. A CD ladder or intermediate term nominal bonds can also work provide the CPI does...
by Top99%
Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is technology the reason for low inflation?
Replies: 57
Views: 3601

Re: Is technology the reason for low inflation?

For all the talk about it, outsourcing in India is not a huge employer. I am guessing 1 million people - a drop in their bucket. And say each outsourced job saves the employer $30k, then that's only $30bn pa - double numbers and double savings to $60k and that's only $120 billion. It is just starti...
by Top99%
Thu Jun 21, 2018 7:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?
Replies: 345
Views: 35836

Re: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?

1) Software Test engineer from 1985 - 2006 2) Software Test manager from 2007 - 2012 3) Cyber security engineer from 2013 till <part time> present I have been continuously employed but had a very close call when the tech bubble popped. 1) and 3) have been very interesting work but I would not recomm...
by Top99%
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retire at 50: Should I?
Replies: 93
Views: 13099

Re: Retire at 50: Should I?

Congratulations and I think most of us will agree that with a 2.9% WR (withdrawal rate) you are good to go. I
by Top99%
Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low inflation caused by e-commerce?
Replies: 15
Views: 2312

Re: Low inflation caused by e-commerce?

I would argue unskilled rather than skilled labour. Skilled labour is anything but in infinite supply. What became possible was a car assembled in Mexico of Chinese parts, or the mass migration of consumer goods production to China, which had a virtually infinite supply of biddable labour. Skilled ...
by Top99%
Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low inflation caused by e-commerce?
Replies: 15
Views: 2312

Re: Low inflation caused by e-commerce?

After reading "The New Wealth of Nations" by Surjit Bhalla I think globalization is actually much more of a factor than e-commerce. This book talks about globalization driving down wage growth (one of the biggest drivers of inflation) first in manufacturing (starting around 1980) and then starting a...
by Top99%
Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multi-Asset vs. Simple Portfolio, 1970-2017
Replies: 37
Views: 3300

Re: Multi-Asset vs. Simple Portfolio, 1970-2017

There are real limits on the ability of past portfolio construction to divine with accuracy what is going to happen in the future even if the past backtesting period is 50 years. I think it is highly probable that stocks will outperform bonds over the next 50 years, since stocks are inherently more...
by Top99%
Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why do we work?
Replies: 121
Views: 11205

Re: Why do we work?

I view the distribution of people's job satisfaction as a bell curve with the far left side consisting of people who work only for the money and would quit the instant they didn't need to money and the far right consisting of people who would work even if they had no need for the money. My job satis...
by Top99%
Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Moving to a house from a condo
Replies: 7
Views: 735

Re: Moving to a house from a condo

Assuming the main issue is space I would look for options to use the space as efficiently as possible. For example, wall beds are a great means of double or triple purposing a room. Wall bed + desk with folding top surface would allow a room to be used as a bedroom, office and exercise room. My wife...
by Top99%
Sat Jun 02, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial setback stories
Replies: 21
Views: 3662

Re: Financial setback stories

The common Tech Bubble temporary multi-millionaire story.... October 17th 2000 at 5:00 PM: Net worth was about 2.1m after taxes with 1.7m of that in Nortel Stock options. October 17th 2000 at 5:05 PM after Nortel announce quarterly results: Net worth was .4m.... I had about 1/3 of my options vested ...
by Top99%
Fri May 25, 2018 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 100
Views: 8941

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

Health issues I think are the biggest risk BY FAR, followed by perhaps expensive divorce or other black swan law suit. The portfolio we have a range of expected outcomes and we plan for. Even in the disaster scenario most of us will be OK unless social security collapses. But medical issues, loss o...
by Top99%
Mon May 21, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Comparing ways to protect ones financial identity
Replies: 11
Views: 1366

Re: Comparing ways to protect ones financial identity

Rent a post office box and have any paper-based financial material sent there. Nothing financial sent to your home address. Anyone can steal anything from your home mailbox while you’re not looking. Great and often overlooked advice related to the risk of physical media as a source of identity thef...
by Top99%
Sun May 20, 2018 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 11517

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

I think I'm with Taylor on this one. I'm amazed this series has hit Part 24. I dunno, withdrawal rates are vastly more important than asset allocation but we see way more discussions of asset allocation around here. As if the difference between 50% international and 30% international is ever going ...
by Top99%
Sun May 20, 2018 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are downsides of ESPP @ 15% discount ?
Replies: 41
Views: 3520

Re: What are downsides of ESPP @ 15% discount ?

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 11:49 am

Taxes? I'd rather pay tax on "no work" profit than give up the profit.
I have a hard time convincing some of my coworkers of this. I always offer to pay the taxes for them if they hand me the 15% profit.
by Top99%
Sat May 19, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What’s your phone/internet bill?
Replies: 92
Views: 6938

Re: What’s your phone/internet bill?

Spectrum has a duopoly so with tax our 60 mbs internet is about $58
My cell phone service is with Republic Wireless at $17 month with tax
DW has Consumer Cellular and hers is about $38 with tax.
Since we don't have a land line we wanted our cellular service in 2 different carriers.
by Top99%
Fri Apr 27, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Financial Perils Of Old Age
Replies: 94
Views: 12311

Re: Larry Swedroe: Financial Perils Of Old Age

Thanks for posting this Dave and it has been interesting to hear the stories of other Bogleheads. My wife "retired" to look after her parents in 2006. They had zero assets beyond SS and my FIL had Diabetes so I can vouch for the expenses and mental toll on my wife. My MIL has had Alzheimer's severe ...
by Top99%
Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Money Or Your Life
Replies: 49
Views: 7466

Re: Your Money Or Your Life

My take away when I read Your Money or Your Life years ago: * Figure out what your real wage is (your paycheck minus all the costs of doing your work [gas, commute time, childcare, things you buy because you don't have time to do it yourself]) * When you're buying something, stop and think if it's ...
by Top99%
Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 156
Views: 18402

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

Trying to predict the future with math and past performance. And then we debate it ad nauseum. I like Taylor’s method. Make sure you have a reasonable amount to cover basics (ss, pension, annuity) or enough $ to get there if early retirement. In bad years, you may have to buckle down, not travel, e...
by Top99%
Sat Apr 14, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 156
Views: 18402

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

This is interesting especially given The Retire Early Home Page just updated their "real life retiree returns" http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/reallife18.html table. It looks to me whether 4% "works" depends on both the portfolio and the starting conditions. Comparing the tables for 1994 Vs 2000...
by Top99%
Sat Apr 14, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 156
Views: 18402

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

This is interesting especially given The Retire Early Home Page just updated their "real life retiree returns" http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/reallife18.html table. It looks to me whether 4% "works" depends on both the portfolio and the starting conditions. Comparing the tables for 1994 Vs 2000 ...
by Top99%
Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions
Replies: 25
Views: 1685

Re: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions

I don't have much faith in using valuations to set an allocation of stocks vs bonds. Except in situations like 2000 in US, when TIPS had a higher long term expected return than stocks. But I do use valuations to allocate among risky asset classes. Not sure there is any good research on this. I am a...
by Top99%
Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Newbie Looking to Get Started
Replies: 15
Views: 1472

Re: Newbie Looking to Get Started

http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/ has some great info on shaving expenses although you may find some of it a bit extreme. For your cell phone plans, once your contracts end you can buy cheap phones ands switch to Cricket, Republic Wireless etc. I would consider zeroing out your entire entertainment b...
by Top99%
Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE in the Context of Real Rates & Inflation, 1880-2018
Replies: 37
Views: 4641

Re: CAPE in the Context of Real Rates & Inflation, 1880-2018

Bottomline... In my humble opinion, those past observations, metrics and charts do not seem to tell us much about the current situation in 2017/18. Inflation is tame, interest rates are low, and... the Shiller PE simply has a life of its own. Simplegift- Thanks for starting a great thread. My own t...
by Top99%
Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job advice
Replies: 13
Views: 1338

Re: Job advice

Assuming the lower salary doesn't derail your retirement/financial independence plan I would absolutely buy a good chunk of life back by taking the job with the closer commute. If things were a little tight financially with the pay cut I would look at cutting expenses in areas (in my opinion) that h...
by Top99%
Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Move: Please convince me why I should not work in tech
Replies: 74
Views: 8864

Re: Career Move: Please convince me why I should not work in tech

I work have worked in tech since 1986 at 3 different Megacorps. Since OP asked why one should NOT work in tech: 1) If you are not good at saving money for a rainy day tech is not a good choice because when it rains it tends to pour. Many tech workers were unemployed for a long period of time in 2001...
by Top99%
Thu Mar 29, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Do You Value Your Home for Net Worth Purposes?
Replies: 150
Views: 11369

Re: How Do You Value Your Home for Net Worth Purposes?

I view my home as a place to live so I "calculate" the value as about 28x the net annual rental cost per year less the value I could get if I actually sold it. For net annual rental cost I subtract costs I currently pay that the landlord would pay if I rented. My rationale is the alternative would b...
by Top99%
Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Healthy eaters -- is this grocery budget normal to you?
Replies: 247
Views: 16464

Re: Healthy eaters -- is this grocery budget normal to you?

My wife and I spend nearly that much as well. We eat a LOT of fish which we generally buy from Whole Foods or from HEB when they offer sustainably fished product. We do keep our costs down a little by eating the fruits, vegetables and fish that are in season. We enjoy really good food and are trying...
by Top99%
Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would you do if you were in charge of a State Pension Fund?
Replies: 36
Views: 2470

Re: What would you do if you were in charge of a State Pension Fund?

In addition to switching to a low cost passive portfolio mentioned by several posters I would do my best to raise awareness about a responsible sustainable perpetual withdrawal rate (3.0% - 3.5% based on my research). If the State was insisting 6-8% was sustainable I would immediately quit.
by Top99%
Sun Mar 25, 2018 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What car should I get
Replies: 35
Views: 3061

Re: What car should I get

I personally think the jury is till out on the long term durability of turbo-charged engines which all trims of the Accord and some of the Civics have gone to. I applaud Toyota for sticking with naturally aspirated engines (for now). Since you mention you keep cars for a long time I this might be a ...
by Top99%
Wed Mar 21, 2018 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is the hedge against higher future interest rates and inflation: the house or the mortgage?
Replies: 18
Views: 1998

Re: Which is the hedge against higher future interest rates and inflation: the house or the mortgage?

I guess it depends on how you define your home value as hedging against inflation: 1) Keeping your housing costs relatively fixed relative to renting or 2) The sales value of the home itself keeping up with inflation. Counting my parents home in I have lived in 6 homes in FL, NC and TX since 1978. P...
by Top99%
Tue Mar 20, 2018 7:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rent in Retirement
Replies: 35
Views: 4010

Re: Rent in Retirement

I would recommend spending the time to do a fairly detailed analysis on renting Vs owning. There is probably a Google sheet out there with details but some often over-looked costs of owning include: 1) Loss of income on money tied up in the house 2) Repairs / replacement of appliances, roof, hot wat...