Search found 348 matches

by Top99%
Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worth Of A Man: A Tribute To John C. Bogle
Replies: 44
Views: 5030

Re: The Worth Of A Man: A Tribute To John C. Bogle

Thanks for posting a nice tribute to a man who did so much for so many.
by Top99%
Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a house at the peak of the market
Replies: 7
Views: 979

Re: Buying a house at the peak of the market

I find it pretty enlightening to plug housing prices into an on-line inflation calculator. All the places I have lived over the long term housing prices have either lagged inflation over the long term or barely kept up. The caveat is I only look at what I refer to as "paycheck" houses (price range b...
by Top99%
Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are REITs better to purchase when interest rates are high or low?
Replies: 68
Views: 4551

Re: Are REITs better to purchase when interest rates are high or low?

My observation having owned REITs since 2000 is that they benefit when rates are falling and struggle when rates are rising. The “yield” paid out as distributions competes to some degree with other investments. As rates fall, that yield becomes more attractive, driving REIT prices up. This is my ex...
by Top99%
Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Budgeting
Replies: 10
Views: 1482

Re: Retirement Budgeting

What is often missed in budgeting but important is replacing/repair appliances, your roof etc. For appliances, we just divide the replacement cost by 10 (assuming a 10 year life) and multiply and add that to our annual budget. You can do that with items like painting your house, replacing the roof e...
by Top99%
Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is this budget lean enough?
Replies: 31
Views: 2084

Re: Is this budget lean enough?

This looks pretty lean to me. For cell phones, does that include the cost of buying the unlocked phones and then amortizing them over X years? I like to buy unlocked phones that are 1-2 generations behind the leading edge to save money. If money is really tight you might be able to shave a little bi...
by Top99%
Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Bad News In Perspective
Replies: 4
Views: 1122

Re: Larry Swedroe: Bad News In Perspective

Thanks Dave and I was also in the "we are overdue for a correction" camp. This article made me rethink that a bit. 2018 was certainly not the best year for international and value stocks to put it mildly. They were certainly enough to overpower the gains I had in CDs and alt lending. I find a quick ...
by Top99%
Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: what do you think about my advice to my brother please help!
Replies: 24
Views: 2486

Re: what do you think about my advice to my brother please help!

I think this is good advice overall but I would suggest: 1) Educate him about the size of a nest egg required to support retirement. Basically in the range of 25x-35x expenses. Many people have no clue about this and it should help him focus on the need to save plus help with your suggestion of havi...
by Top99%
Sun Dec 30, 2018 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: College Inflation rate?
Replies: 59
Views: 3481

Re: College Inflation rate?

One of my favorite quotes is "if something can't continue it will stop" and I think this applies to the inflation rate in college tuition. As an engineer I have watched starting salaries roughly track inflation since I graduated in 1984 while college costs have greatly outpaced inflation. At some po...
by Top99%
Wed Dec 26, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What have you learned this year
Replies: 90
Views: 6886

Re: What have your learned this year

Financial: An asset allocation that looked rather stodgy and overly-conservative during the go-go seasons has looked (and performed) pretty good over these last few tumultuous weeks. Personal: Health is paramount, and should be cherished, protected, and nourished to be best of one’s abilities. Than...
by Top99%
Wed Dec 26, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: My Christmas Present To You
Replies: 108
Views: 11203

Re: My Christmas Present To You

Thank you for your service Taylor. The service provided by you and others in our military is the reason I am free to type this among all the other freedoms we take for granted but should not.
by Top99%
Sun Dec 23, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement
Replies: 142
Views: 19292

Re: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement

Scott Burns, a now-retired personal finance journalist who introduced me to index funds, used to make the point that the probability of your portfolio “failing” at a ripe old age needed to be balanced with the probability of you (or your spouse) not being around to care. Here’s his analysis: https:...
by Top99%
Wed Dec 19, 2018 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are some non-doomsday scenarios where buy and hold index fund equities fails in the long run
Replies: 27
Views: 3050

Re: What are some non-doomsday scenarios where buy and hold index fund equities fails in the long run

1970s style stagflation going on for the first 3rd or more of your "long run" is one scenario I can think of. Basically you would be forced to sell increasingly more equities at depressed prices at the beginning of your retirement - a worst case scenario. But, I don't view that as likely in today's ...
by Top99%
Sun Dec 16, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 249
Views: 20336

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

We were still on our accumulation phase and went from 65/35 stocks / bonds to 70/30 stocks / bonds to take advantage of the "sale" so to speak. Part of that was driven by me feeling my job was pretty secure. I view the combination of the tech bubble and GFC "investment sales" coinciding with our max...
by Top99%
Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If You Knew Then What You Know Now
Replies: 12
Views: 2011

Re: If You Knew Then What You Know Now

What we did well: Saved very aggressively starting in 2001 (70% of take home pay Kept our skills marketable at all times (basically I view myself as a business that sells services to my employer Owned a "Coffee House" portfolio of index funds but tilted to REITs because they were dirt cheap Downsiz...
by Top99%
Mon Nov 26, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to stop and settle at one place?
Replies: 27
Views: 3103

Re: When to stop and settle at one place?

Moving can actually be good for kids. When my parents moved us during my teenage years I was dragged kicking and screaming to a new location (Ontario Canada to Miami FL). But, in the end the move really increased my self-confidence, flexibility and adaptability. I notice that most of my friends and ...
by Top99%
Mon Nov 19, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where do you get your information? Favorite blogs/sites/resources?
Replies: 25
Views: 2697

Re: Where do you get your information? Favorite blogs/sites/resources?

ERN - https://earlyretirementnow.com/ - The 20+ SWR (safe withdrawal rate) articles can be like drinking from a firehose to consume but I find some of the information valuable. The Retire Early Home Page - http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/chronidx.html - I like the real life retiree investment ret...
by Top99%
Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 7 Investing Rules
Replies: 14
Views: 2503

Re: Larry Swedroe: 7 Investing Rules

I agree this was an excellent article. I think point 5 "Understand That Even Good Strategies Can Have Bad Outcomes" and the impact luck has is underappreciated by many and a good reason to save as much as possible during the accumulation years and diversify. It also points to how difficult it can be...
by Top99%
Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CDs role in Fixed income part of portfolio
Replies: 31
Views: 2953

Re: CDs role in Fixed income part of portfolio

I am also a fan of CD ladders as part of ones fixed income portfolio. I just checked how our rolling 1-2-3 year CD ladder we setup during 2005 for our emergency fund did and it has outpaced inflation by a little bit. So, meeting our expectations.
by Top99%
Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area housing frenzy cooling
Replies: 120
Views: 18571

Re: Bay Area housing frenzy cooling

Here in tech heavy Austin the frenzy is also cooling in spite of record low unemployment and lots of high paying tech jobs. And I see that as a very good thing. Rising interest rates seem to be letting some steam out of the market.
by Top99%
Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taylor's new book is #1
Replies: 32
Views: 6129

Re: Taylor's new book is #1

Congratulations and well done Taylor. :sharebeer
by Top99%
Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns
Replies: 81
Views: 7314

Re: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns

Siamond,

Thanks for putting a lot of effort in creating what I find some really useful charts. Looking back though this data is especially enlightening as the current bull market in US stocks continues to extend its duration lead over all previous US bull markets.
by Top99%
Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: TIPS Versus Nominal Bonds
Replies: 47
Views: 4673

Re: Larry Swedroe: TIPS Versus Nominal Bonds

Thanks for posting an interesting article. I learned a lot from the article itself and the replies on the thread. TIPS + CD ladders seems like a good way to hedge your bets to me. I think the fact that CDs are more of a hassle to deal with earns a bit of a premium as well.
by Top99%
Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Take auto loan 0.9% if I can afford cash?
Replies: 162
Views: 10916

Re: Take auto loan 0.9% if I can afford cash?

Just bought a car for 0% for 72 months. When they asked how much I wanted to put down I said negative $25,000. Sadly they didn't go for that. :mrgreen: Had to settle for zero down.
by Top99%
Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "75 Must Know Statistics About Long-Term Care: 2018 Edition"
Replies: 56
Views: 6135

Re: "75 Must Know Statistics About Long-Term Care: 2018 Edition"

Insurance generally works best for low probability high impact events for both the insured and the insurance companies. What makes LTC problematic is it covers high probability high impact events. Currently still leaning towards self insurance but keeping an open mind.
by Top99%
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Marriage [How should finances be handled?]
Replies: 74
Views: 7981

Re: Marriage [How should finances be handled?]

First of all congratulations! To cover a topic others haven't covered yet, the first question I would ask is do your wife value money the same way? On top of paying for bare necessities money can be used for: 1) Buying stuff (fancy cars, clothing, big houses etc.) 2) Buying experiences (vacations, m...
by Top99%
Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 330
Views: 26386

Re: Invest in Tesla?

I wouldn't bet on our against Tesla or any other single stock. Been there done that prior to the tech bubble. I think their energy storage business actually might be more disruptive than their EV business. Also, if Tesla runs into financial trouble and their market cap crashes I think Apple would st...
by Top99%
Fri Jul 20, 2018 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I may have understood why it's so hard to save and invest
Replies: 81
Views: 13846

Re: I may have understood why it's so hard to save and invest

1-month equivalent paycheck (1500$) If you net $18k / year, it is actually incredibly impressive that you're managing to save 8% of that. That is not easy. No wonder it feels hard. Keep doing it anyway. You're awesome. Completely agree. And clearly you are demonstrating an ability to live on a smal...
by Top99%
Wed Jul 18, 2018 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Know Your Investor Personality
Replies: 26
Views: 2924

Re: Larry Swedroe: Know Your Investor Personality

To put a positive spin on this missive from Swedroe, I think he should write about the "perfect" investor in each category and how that investor behaves and avoids the biases Swedroe listed. :twisted: A written investment policy statement that the investor adheres to is a strong start towards avoid...
by Top99%
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we afford to buy house in Bay Area?
Replies: 19
Views: 3027

Re: Can we afford to buy house in Bay Area?

Facing a difficult financial decision. We live in Bay Area and want to buy a house. Current situation: - Salary + Bonus: 210K - RSU: 300K a year - 401k: ~100K total, maxing out every year - Current house equity: ~400K (assuming I sell it today and exclude all closing costs) - Cash: 250K in money ma...
by Top99%
Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 9689

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

Thanks SimpleGift for providing the data and initiating the discussion on this thread and the previous one. I have learned a lot from both. For "bonds" I think the "safety" factor can be improved by using CDs/bonds with a duration <5 years or TIPS. Duration risk is certainly real and assuming your c...
by Top99%
Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 10 years to lose wealth applicable to bogleheads ?
Replies: 32
Views: 4029

Re: 10 years to lose wealth applicable to bogleheads ?

CarpeDiem22 wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:45 pm
Net Worth, not Income, is the measure of being financially rich. The book Millionaire Next Door should be a must-read for anyone aspiring to be rich.
I would add the sequel "The Millionaire Mind" to that list.
by Top99%
Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to "retire" in your 30's article
Replies: 110
Views: 15546

Re: How to "retire" in your 30's article

Good for you Marc. A lot of people don’t understand that being frugal isn’t painful. Or that you can have a wonderful life without spending a lot. A lot don’t understand wanting to spend all that extra time with your family. I do so yes thank you for sharing. It isn’t always easy to have your life ...
by Top99%
Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity Risk Premium over Two Centuries, 1825-2017
Replies: 27
Views: 2810

Re: Equity Risk Premium over Two Centuries, 1825-2017

jbranx wrote:
Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:04 am
I wanted to add a big thanks to Todd for his hard work on this thread and all the others he posts. Very good, enlightening work.
+1. I don't have anything to add to this thread but I am learning a lot.
by Top99%
Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The cost of reducing portfolio volatility
Replies: 25
Views: 2732

Re: The cost of reducing portfolio volatility

Vineviz, This is an important topic for me so I'm trying to understand what you're suggesting. The main advantage of an equity-heavy portfolio has been the higher rate of return, both expected and realized. Let's use the 60/40 as example. It's not Sharpe-optimal I'm sure. Are you saying investors s...
by Top99%
Wed Jun 27, 2018 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keeping up with inflation
Replies: 24
Views: 2278

Re: Keeping up with inflation

First I think you need to define what inflation means to you: 1) Inflation as measured by the CPI 2) inflation in the price of the basket of goods and services that matter to you. For 1), Social Security and TIPS work. A CD ladder or intermediate term nominal bonds can also work provide the CPI does...
by Top99%
Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is technology the reason for low inflation?
Replies: 57
Views: 3669

Re: Is technology the reason for low inflation?

For all the talk about it, outsourcing in India is not a huge employer. I am guessing 1 million people - a drop in their bucket. And say each outsourced job saves the employer $30k, then that's only $30bn pa - double numbers and double savings to $60k and that's only $120 billion. It is just starti...
by Top99%
Thu Jun 21, 2018 7:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?
Replies: 408
Views: 41783

Re: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?

1) Software Test engineer from 1985 - 2006 2) Software Test manager from 2007 - 2012 3) Cyber security engineer from 2013 till <part time> present I have been continuously employed but had a very close call when the tech bubble popped. 1) and 3) have been very interesting work but I would not recomm...
by Top99%
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retire at 50: Should I?
Replies: 93
Views: 13272

Re: Retire at 50: Should I?

Congratulations and I think most of us will agree that with a 2.9% WR (withdrawal rate) you are good to go. I
by Top99%
Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low inflation caused by e-commerce?
Replies: 15
Views: 2358

Re: Low inflation caused by e-commerce?

I would argue unskilled rather than skilled labour. Skilled labour is anything but in infinite supply. What became possible was a car assembled in Mexico of Chinese parts, or the mass migration of consumer goods production to China, which had a virtually infinite supply of biddable labour. Skilled ...
by Top99%
Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low inflation caused by e-commerce?
Replies: 15
Views: 2358

Re: Low inflation caused by e-commerce?

After reading "The New Wealth of Nations" by Surjit Bhalla I think globalization is actually much more of a factor than e-commerce. This book talks about globalization driving down wage growth (one of the biggest drivers of inflation) first in manufacturing (starting around 1980) and then starting a...
by Top99%
Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multi-Asset vs. Simple Portfolio, 1970-2017
Replies: 37
Views: 3390

Re: Multi-Asset vs. Simple Portfolio, 1970-2017

There are real limits on the ability of past portfolio construction to divine with accuracy what is going to happen in the future even if the past backtesting period is 50 years. I think it is highly probable that stocks will outperform bonds over the next 50 years, since stocks are inherently more...
by Top99%
Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why do we work?
Replies: 121
Views: 11399

Re: Why do we work?

I view the distribution of people's job satisfaction as a bell curve with the far left side consisting of people who work only for the money and would quit the instant they didn't need to money and the far right consisting of people who would work even if they had no need for the money. My job satis...
by Top99%
Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Moving to a house from a condo
Replies: 7
Views: 749

Re: Moving to a house from a condo

Assuming the main issue is space I would look for options to use the space as efficiently as possible. For example, wall beds are a great means of double or triple purposing a room. Wall bed + desk with folding top surface would allow a room to be used as a bedroom, office and exercise room. My wife...
by Top99%
Sat Jun 02, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial setback stories
Replies: 21
Views: 3682

Re: Financial setback stories

The common Tech Bubble temporary multi-millionaire story.... October 17th 2000 at 5:00 PM: Net worth was about 2.1m after taxes with 1.7m of that in Nortel Stock options. October 17th 2000 at 5:05 PM after Nortel announce quarterly results: Net worth was .4m.... I had about 1/3 of my options vested ...
by Top99%
Fri May 25, 2018 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 100
Views: 9080

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

Health issues I think are the biggest risk BY FAR, followed by perhaps expensive divorce or other black swan law suit. The portfolio we have a range of expected outcomes and we plan for. Even in the disaster scenario most of us will be OK unless social security collapses. But medical issues, loss o...
by Top99%
Mon May 21, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Comparing ways to protect ones financial identity
Replies: 11
Views: 1395

Re: Comparing ways to protect ones financial identity

Rent a post office box and have any paper-based financial material sent there. Nothing financial sent to your home address. Anyone can steal anything from your home mailbox while you’re not looking. Great and often overlooked advice related to the risk of physical media as a source of identity thef...
by Top99%
Sun May 20, 2018 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 11897

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

I think I'm with Taylor on this one. I'm amazed this series has hit Part 24. I dunno, withdrawal rates are vastly more important than asset allocation but we see way more discussions of asset allocation around here. As if the difference between 50% international and 30% international is ever going ...
by Top99%
Sun May 20, 2018 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are downsides of ESPP @ 15% discount ?
Replies: 41
Views: 3728

Re: What are downsides of ESPP @ 15% discount ?

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 11:49 am

Taxes? I'd rather pay tax on "no work" profit than give up the profit.
I have a hard time convincing some of my coworkers of this. I always offer to pay the taxes for them if they hand me the 15% profit.
by Top99%
Sat May 19, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What’s your phone/internet bill?
Replies: 92
Views: 7108

Re: What’s your phone/internet bill?

Spectrum has a duopoly so with tax our 60 mbs internet is about $58
My cell phone service is with Republic Wireless at $17 month with tax
DW has Consumer Cellular and hers is about $38 with tax.
Since we don't have a land line we wanted our cellular service in 2 different carriers.
by Top99%
Fri Apr 27, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Financial Perils Of Old Age
Replies: 94
Views: 12777

Re: Larry Swedroe: Financial Perils Of Old Age

Thanks for posting this Dave and it has been interesting to hear the stories of other Bogleheads. My wife "retired" to look after her parents in 2006. They had zero assets beyond SS and my FIL had Diabetes so I can vouch for the expenses and mental toll on my wife. My MIL has had Alzheimer's severe ...