Search found 404 matches

by Top99%
Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.
Replies: 151
Views: 15089

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Deflation might be in a lot of places right now but I think inflation will return to a lot of places in the future. For example, it is costing grocery stores a lot of money to shorten their hours and allocate more workers to sanitize stores. At some point they will need to pass that cost on to consu...
by Top99%
Tue Apr 14, 2020 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My theory about FIRE
Replies: 419
Views: 31365

Re: My theory about FIRE

Freedom. Maybe it needs to be FIFE (Financial Independence, Freedom Early). Regardless, a worthy goal. FIFE. I like that. To me there were a couple of stages of FIFE. Stage 1: We could cover our needs and most of our wants with McJob level income and Stage 2: We could cover our needs and most of ou...
by Top99%
Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BOOK: Fully Grown, Why a Stagnant Economy is a Sign of Success
Replies: 55
Views: 3461

Re: BOOK: Fully Grown, Why a Stagnant Economy is a Sign of Success

Thanks for posting about this book Simplegift. It intrigues me enough that I ordered a copy. I seem to have extra time to read books these days.
by Top99%
Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did you learn about investing or building wealth that would have helped you, if you knew about it earlier in life?
Replies: 45
Views: 3227

Re: What did you learn about investing or building wealth that would have helped you, if you knew about it earlier in li

1. The value of starting early. We lived at our means until our late 30s and lost precious compounding time as a result. 2. Automobiles are the easiest opportunity to save a lot of money. Buy a Toyota or Honda, keep for 10+ years, rinse and repeat. 3. Think about every dollar you spend in terms of a...
by Top99%
Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US 30 year Treasury yield @ 0.957%
Replies: 13
Views: 1542

Re: US 30 year Treasury yield @ 0.957%

Amazing. I must admit 70s/80s/90s recency bias led me to believe that coming out of the financial crisis interest rates would settle back into the "normal" range of 4-6%. Fortunately I didn't act on my (obviously incorrect) intuition and just stuck with short to mid duration bonds/CDs. Now I have no...
by Top99%
Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffet on renewable energy
Replies: 94
Views: 7025

Re: Warren Buffet on renewable energy

Oddly Texas is well endowed in wind. 2nd largest state for wind after California. And well endowed for solar along its southern and western sides. So yes gas. Yes oil. But also wind and solar. I have to stand up for my home state here: Texas is _far_ ahead in wind energy production. Check https://e...
by Top99%
Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Here We Go Again!"
Replies: 32
Views: 7157

Re: "Here We Go Again!"

Great article Taylor. I love the "Reasons to Sell" chart. That is worth printing and stapling to my forehead :wink:
by Top99%
Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Dark Side of "Stay the Course"
Replies: 202
Views: 16515

Re: The Dark Side of "Stay the Course"

ReformedSpender wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:05 am
Cashing out is easy, knowing when to get back in is not. What if the market gains all that it lost next week?

Hence why staying the course is staying the course...

:beer
Indeed. One of my coworkers got out in early 2008 and is still waiting to get back in...
by Top99%
Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 38350

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

31.4159265359% +/- 50%

On a more serious note it will be interesting to see how folks who started investing after the financial crisis weather this.
by Top99%
Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Millionaire Next Door compared to Dave Ramsey research
Replies: 31
Views: 4164

Re: Millionaire Next Door compared to Dave Ramsey research

I read both the MND and the Millionaire Mind. It seemed these were different books in a couple of regards. MND covered millionaires very broadly when it was written, and shared data around the majority of millionaires who were in the $1MM-$3MM range including vocation, habits, and other demographic...
by Top99%
Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The most valuable lesson in your investment career?
Replies: 87
Views: 4766

Re: The most valuable lesson in your investment career?

Some great advice has already been posted in this thread. Mine: If you work for a company that offers an ESPP (employee stock purchase plan) that allows you to buy company stock at a discount, by all means participate but then turn around and sell the stock the next day, at least until your ESPP sha...
by Top99%
Mon Feb 17, 2020 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 718
Views: 105545

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

I'm thankful that by the time I'm 70, combined SS benefits for my DW and myself will be enough to cover all of our anticipated essential spending (under current law). So from that point and going forward, our portfolio will only be for discretionary spending and potential LTC needs, and we might mi...
by Top99%
Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Cycle Psychology
Replies: 50
Views: 4128

Re: Market Cycle Psychology

There are a few pockets of euphoria... Specifically the articles about Tesla being worth $2 trillion with a T by 2024 when they take over the entire auto industry with robo-taxis. I love my model 3 but find that as laughable as some of the dot-com era bravado.
by Top99%
Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I have a wild [asset allocation] theory. Poke some holes in it.
Replies: 39
Views: 6602

Re: I have a wild theory. Poke some holes in it.

I think it partly depends on how secure one's job is. If you work in a volatile area like technology having a 1-2 year emergency fund in bonds, CDs or something similar is almost a necessity. If you are one of those few lucky people who have stable employment prospects stocks return more than bonds ...
by Top99%
Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Telling Tales: Value, Size, Int'l, REITs (2019 update)
Replies: 35
Views: 4778

Re: Telling Tales: Value, Size, Int'l, REITs (2019 update)

Thanks for all the work in keeping this interesting data current Siamond.
by Top99%
Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 718
Views: 105545

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

It's time for another update on our hypothetical year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule of thumb'. Another way of looking at this is to ask, after 20 years of withdrawals where do Year 2000 retirees fall compared to all other retirement cohorts at their 20th year ? https://miro.medium.com/max/807/1*...
by Top99%
Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Christmas Gift to You Seventy-Five Years Ago
Replies: 74
Views: 7120

Re: My Christmas Gift to You Seventy-Five Years Ago

Thank you Taylor and to those who served and continue to serve. It is hard to imagine what the world would be like if Hitler had been allowed to win.
by Top99%
Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Source of U.S. Stock Market Returns, 1952-2018
Replies: 11
Views: 1393

Re: Source of U.S. Stock Market Returns, 1952-2018

^^^ To be honest, the details of the whole "labor vs. capital" issue in how the study authors constructed their models is something I was hoping to avoid in this thread, as it's likely to quickly devolve into politics. It's certainly a legitimate question for discussion, but perhaps just not here o...
by Top99%
Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: this time it's different
Replies: 92
Views: 11113

Re: this time it's different

This article ponders the same things I do (IE things seem upside down) but it certainly doesn't convince me to change my AA. Lots of things (most of which we can't discuss without getting threads locked) could happen that could change our trajectory. There is always the possibility (probability actu...
by Top99%
Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ESPP Help
Replies: 9
Views: 878

Re: ESPP Help

I’ve always viewed my ESPP as a short term, high yield CD. Holding company stock for the tax benefits is playing with fire. I’d bump up your contribution to 15% and nuke the rest. Sell as soon as the shares are granted. +1. I also like to keep in mind that having one's employment (paycheck) and net...
by Top99%
Mon Jul 29, 2019 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on P2P Lending
Replies: 37
Views: 2944

Re: Thoughts on P2P Lending

I invested some "play money" in LC about 3 years ago after reading about it on MrMoneyMustache.com and like several others have found the institutional money has crowded out the good loans in recent years. Or, to roughly quote Bill Bernstein, the umbrella shop has been discovered and the umbrellas a...
by Top99%
Tue Jul 09, 2019 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demographics are Not Destiny (due to Automation)
Replies: 22
Views: 2390

Re: Demographics are Not Destiny (due to Automation)

Automation can certainly help address a reduction in workers but the big question I have is how a shrinking work force will affect the demand side of the economy, especially if this becomes a world-wide phenomena in developed countries. Certainly demand for some goods and services are more coupled ...
by Top99%
Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demographics are Not Destiny (due to Automation)
Replies: 22
Views: 2390

Re: Demographics are Not Destiny (due to Automation)

Automation can certainly help address a reduction in workers but the big question I have is how a shrinking work force will affect the demand side of the economy, especially if this becomes a world-wide phenomena in developed countries. Certainly demand for some goods and services are more coupled t...
by Top99%
Fri Jul 05, 2019 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blockbuster
Replies: 34
Views: 3473

Re: Blockbuster

Blockbuster is a perfect example of a company that easily could have adapted and prospered but didn't. Sears is another. Sears had a strong mail order via catalog business so it seems like transitioning this to on-line orders should have been simple. Adorama and B&H Photo transitioned from catalog t...
by Top99%
Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good times: 2008 vs Now
Replies: 145
Views: 16514

Re: Good times: 2008 vs Now

If you had a secure job and money to invest 2008-2009 was a _very_ good time. The 2001-2002 and 2008-2009 asset sales certainly shortened our time to financial independence.
by Top99%
Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 21613

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

This has been a fascinating thread. Looking at one of my favorite sources http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/reallife19.html which shows returns for portfolios with the 4% "rule" applied I certainly prefer the smoother ride the more factor-centric (MPT and Larry Portfolio) portfolios provided especi...
by Top99%
Sun Jun 02, 2019 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret Index
Replies: 190
Views: 24159

Re: Diversification Regret

In my few years here both as a lurker and as a poster, I have seen the standard advice here drop from five funds down to two. This has happened in maybe eight years and it is alarming. The stay the course folks have not been staying the course. I have seen TIPS, REITs, and now International Stocks ...
by Top99%
Mon May 27, 2019 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4 Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 5153

Re: 4 Seasons Portfolio

This http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/reallife19.html site shows results for several portfolios with the 4% "rule" applied. As is often repeated around here the starting time (and conditions) matters a lot. If one starts in 1994 4 season lagged everything except 100% FI. If one starts in 1999 it f...
by Top99%
Mon May 20, 2019 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Real Life Long Term Return on Investment REIT Fund
Replies: 3
Views: 1153

Re: My Real Life Long Term Return on Investment REIT Fund

REITs were screaming cheap back in the early 2000s so it looks like you took advantage of that sale.
by Top99%
Sat May 11, 2019 11:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What non frugal things save money?
Replies: 84
Views: 11424

Re: What non frugal things save money?

Buying pacific wild salmon at the grocery store is more expensive than farm raised salmon (or certainly chicken) but certainly less expensive than going out to eat for what will probably be an unhealthy meal. And I believe spending money on healthy and delicious food will pay off down the road in re...
by Top99%
Sat May 11, 2019 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Post WWII US Returns’ Changing Nature
Replies: 33
Views: 3716

Re: Larry Swedroe: Post WWII US Returns’ Changing Nature

In fact, the stock market owes much of its return over the past 30 years not to economic growth but to shareholders earning an increasing share of that growth at the expense of workers. And this can only go so far before political actions occur (and we may be approaching that point). This growth at...
by Top99%
Mon May 06, 2019 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How and when did you do it - to get to 1 Million
Replies: 129
Views: 29059

Re: How and when did you do it - to get to 1 Million

which time? True for me. Went to $1m and back 2 times... The first time was during the tech bubble with some stock options that went took us to from $400K to $2.4M and then on Oct 17, 2000 at 5:01 PM went to zero... So, we were back to $400K but a lot wiser. The 2nd time was by saving a lot of mone...
by Top99%
Wed Apr 24, 2019 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is diversification the point of factor investing?
Replies: 56
Views: 3559

Re: Is diversification the point of factor investing?

In my case the goal of factor investing is less volatility and reduce sequence of returns risk. Looking at some actual returns in http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/reallife18.html which shows real portfolio values year over year with the 4% "rule" applied I see large cap stock heavy portfolios had ...
by Top99%
Wed Apr 03, 2019 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Make sure your retirement investment plan includes being fired from your job in your 50s
Replies: 285
Views: 19036

Re: Make sure your retirement investment plan includes being fired from your job in your 50s

I'm at a stage now where I could walk away if my job stopped being fulfilling (I'm certain I have far less in my retirement portfolio than the majority here, but I have ENOUGH, and am willing to adjust my spending). At this point, I really only need enough to pay my expenses ... I'd be ok if nothin...
by Top99%
Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Insurance Products better than the Stock Market?
Replies: 22
Views: 1954

Re: Any Insurance Products better than the Stock Market?

rgs92 wrote:
Sat Mar 30, 2019 9:48 am
Maybe an SPIA, but that's mainly for income but could be considered part of your fixed income allocation.
Yes and the steady stream of income might help you stay the course with your equity allocation during drawdowns. So, I view an SPIA as complimentary to the stock market.
by Top99%
Sat Mar 30, 2019 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "The best and worst U.S. states for retirement"
Replies: 303
Views: 38031

Re: "The best and worst U.S. states for retirement"

I am not surprised my state of Texas is rated mid-pack and certainly Austin where we live isn't cheap. But, at least with property tax centric states you can somewhat control your tax burden by spending less on housing and it motivated us to minimize our housing costs which is a good thing in other ...
by Top99%
Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why take the risk with equities?
Replies: 122
Views: 9254

Re: Why take the risk with equities?

All roads do indeed carry risk. If things get bad enough for the 4% rule to fail I think the odds of insurances companies selling SPIAs going bankrupt would also be high and the state "SPIA" guarantee would just be a speed bump. Many people are already saying that 3% is the new 4%. Are you predicti...
by Top99%
Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why take the risk with equities?
Replies: 122
Views: 9254

Re: Why take the risk with equities?

In the OP the huge difference between Scenarios 1-6 vs the different SPIA plans is the effect on Net Worth. With the SPIA, your original $1,000,000 is gone. With the withdrawal rate Scenarios, you still have whatever the Million Dollars has grown to or shrunk to. Or did I miss something? You are co...
by Top99%
Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: After ten years, most of the record of the crash is gone
Replies: 41
Views: 6708

Re: After ten years, most of the record of the crash is gone

Since the SEC requires that funds publish 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year returns, this means that there is no record of a bear market in the published returns. That may be true, but the experience of the tech crash and the financial crisis (both probably > 50% market losses) have significantly affecte...
by Top99%
Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you have 1 or 2 numbers for expenses in retirement?
Replies: 59
Views: 4745

Re: Do you have 1 or 2 numbers for expenses in retirement?

We have 2 numbers that are very far apart: #1 Bare minimum that still allows us to eat healthy tasty food we would cook at home and enjoy at least fine box wine. #2 Supports dining out, vacations, better wine, more frequent car replacements, new photography toys etc. Having a nest egg (including Soc...
by Top99%
Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Dividend Yield Plus Buyback Yield for 2018 Was 5.96%
Replies: 32
Views: 4558

Re: S&P 500 Dividend Yield Plus Buyback Yield for 2018 Was 5.96%

It isn't clear to me if this is based on _net_ buybacks. For example, the MegaCo I work at hands out a lot of company stock as compensation in the form of RSUs (restricted stock units) which vest over 3 years. These need to get accounted for to compute the net buyback. I am not familiar enough with...
by Top99%
Thu Mar 07, 2019 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Dividend Yield Plus Buyback Yield for 2018 Was 5.96%
Replies: 32
Views: 4558

Re: S&P 500 Dividend Yield Plus Buyback Yield for 2018 Was 5.96%

It isn't clear to me if this is based on _net_ buybacks. For example, the MegaCo I work at hands out a lot of company stock as compensation in the form of RSUs (restricted stock units) which vest over 3 years. These need to get accounted for to compute the net buyback. I am not familiar enough with ...
by Top99%
Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Long Term Returns, Short Time Periods
Replies: 10
Views: 1066

Re: Larry Swedroe: Long Term Returns, Short Time Periods

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-long-term-returns-short-time-periods Most all stock market gains come in unpredictable short bursts. Only way to experience the long term gains is to already be there for the short bursts; have a plan and stick to it. The market’s short ter...
by Top99%
Tue Feb 26, 2019 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 718
Views: 105545

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

I am very surprised to see the sentiment to accumulate extreme amounts in stock in order to feel safe, for example "50x living expenses in bonds and stocks". That thinking seems to dismiss the relevance of bonds and stocks. Which makes sensein a way when you think about them as just two markets. Th...
by Top99%
Mon Feb 25, 2019 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Time Varying Factor Premiums
Replies: 26
Views: 1727

Re: Larry Swedroe: Time Varying Factor Premiums

This makes intuitive sense to me given it is human nature to performance chase and based on my own observations since the late 1990s (when I started paying attention). 1) Time = M: Asset class X outperforms the overall market for L years 2) Time = M + N: Asset class X gets bid up by performance chas...
by Top99%
Sun Feb 17, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 718
Views: 105545

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Good work. Any idea about how much does the 100% stock guy have now? As of the end of last month, they would have an inflation-adjusted $361,445 ($539,555 nominal), nine more years of expenses assuming a 0% real return. They might make it to the 30 year mark, but a big market downturn that isn't fo...
by Top99%
Tue Feb 05, 2019 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "House Rules," Clements on the finances of homeownership
Replies: 63
Views: 7311

Re: "House Rules," Clements on the finances of homeownership

I believe the most lucrative option is renting the smallest apartment you are happy with. That will beat any strategy involving a house. And why do you think that is cheaper than buying that same apartment? Odds are it isn't. In the end everything comes down to assumptions. With 5% appreciation and...
by Top99%
Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "House Rules," Clements on the finances of homeownership
Replies: 63
Views: 7311

Re: "House Rules," Clements on the finances of homeownership

We have many friends who live closed in to a large city. Their houses were paid for with paychecks and were bought as a place to live. Due to the easy commute and proximity to Metro stops, those who have sold their houses received for the most part $1MM or more for their houses. It has turned out t...
by Top99%
Mon Feb 04, 2019 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "House Rules," Clements on the finances of homeownership
Replies: 63
Views: 7311

Re: "House Rules," Clements on the finances of homeownership

....3. ...home prices nationwide should rise roughly in line with per-capita GDP.... we shouldn’t expect to do a whole lot better than a percentage point or so a year more than inflation.... At the macro level this makes sense but I think there are really two housing markets: 1: "Paycheck" houses -...
by Top99%
Mon Feb 04, 2019 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Pain, No Premium
Replies: 12
Views: 1740

Re: No Pain, No Premium

This was really interesting and the 2 points I really liked: 1) The "SP500 envy" table showing tracking error regret. This is especially timely given the outperformance of US large cap growth from 2009-2017. Tracking error regret is one of the largest challenges of "staying the course" with a divers...