Search found 320 matches

by Top99%
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we afford to buy house in Bay Area?
Replies: 17
Views: 2310

Re: Can we afford to buy house in Bay Area?

Facing a difficult financial decision. We live in Bay Area and want to buy a house. Current situation: - Salary + Bonus: 210K - RSU: 300K a year - 401k: ~100K total, maxing out every year - Current house equity: ~400K (assuming I sell it today and exclude all closing costs) - Cash: 250K in money ma...
by Top99%
Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 100
Views: 7399

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

Thanks SimpleGift for providing the data and initiating the discussion on this thread and the previous one. I have learned a lot from both. For "bonds" I think the "safety" factor can be improved by using CDs/bonds with a duration <5 years or TIPS. Duration risk is certainly real and assuming your c...
by Top99%
Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 10 years to lose wealth applicable to bogleheads ?
Replies: 32
Views: 3683

Re: 10 years to lose wealth applicable to bogleheads ?

CarpeDiem22 wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:45 pm
Net Worth, not Income, is the measure of being financially rich. The book Millionaire Next Door should be a must-read for anyone aspiring to be rich.
I would add the sequel "The Millionaire Mind" to that list.
by Top99%
Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to "retire" in your 30's article
Replies: 110
Views: 14446

Re: How to "retire" in your 30's article

Good for you Marc. A lot of people don’t understand that being frugal isn’t painful. Or that you can have a wonderful life without spending a lot. A lot don’t understand wanting to spend all that extra time with your family. I do so yes thank you for sharing. It isn’t always easy to have your life ...
by Top99%
Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity Risk Premium over Two Centuries, 1825-2017
Replies: 24
Views: 2231

Re: Equity Risk Premium over Two Centuries, 1825-2017

jbranx wrote:
Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:04 am
I wanted to add a big thanks to Todd for his hard work on this thread and all the others he posts. Very good, enlightening work.
+1. I don't have anything to add to this thread but I am learning a lot.
by Top99%
Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The cost of reducing portfolio volatility
Replies: 25
Views: 2328

Re: The cost of reducing portfolio volatility

Vineviz, This is an important topic for me so I'm trying to understand what you're suggesting. The main advantage of an equity-heavy portfolio has been the higher rate of return, both expected and realized. Let's use the 60/40 as example. It's not Sharpe-optimal I'm sure. Are you saying investors s...
by Top99%
Wed Jun 27, 2018 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keeping up with inflation
Replies: 24
Views: 1793

Re: Keeping up with inflation

First I think you need to define what inflation means to you: 1) Inflation as measured by the CPI 2) inflation in the price of the basket of goods and services that matter to you. For 1), Social Security and TIPS work. A CD ladder or intermediate term nominal bonds can also work provide the CPI does...
by Top99%
Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is technology the reason for low inflation?
Replies: 57
Views: 3296

Re: Is technology the reason for low inflation?

For all the talk about it, outsourcing in India is not a huge employer. I am guessing 1 million people - a drop in their bucket. And say each outsourced job saves the employer $30k, then that's only $30bn pa - double numbers and double savings to $60k and that's only $120 billion. It is just starti...
by Top99%
Thu Jun 21, 2018 7:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?
Replies: 340
Views: 30182

Re: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?

1) Software Test engineer from 1985 - 2006 2) Software Test manager from 2007 - 2012 3) Cyber security engineer from 2013 till <part time> present I have been continuously employed but had a very close call when the tech bubble popped. 1) and 3) have been very interesting work but I would not recomm...
by Top99%
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retire at 50: Should I?
Replies: 93
Views: 12147

Re: Retire at 50: Should I?

Congratulations and I think most of us will agree that with a 2.9% WR (withdrawal rate) you are good to go. I
by Top99%
Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low inflation caused by e-commerce?
Replies: 15
Views: 1927

Re: Low inflation caused by e-commerce?

I would argue unskilled rather than skilled labour. Skilled labour is anything but in infinite supply. What became possible was a car assembled in Mexico of Chinese parts, or the mass migration of consumer goods production to China, which had a virtually infinite supply of biddable labour. Skilled ...
by Top99%
Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low inflation caused by e-commerce?
Replies: 15
Views: 1927

Re: Low inflation caused by e-commerce?

After reading "The New Wealth of Nations" by Surjit Bhalla I think globalization is actually much more of a factor than e-commerce. This book talks about globalization driving down wage growth (one of the biggest drivers of inflation) first in manufacturing (starting around 1980) and then starting a...
by Top99%
Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multi-Asset vs. Simple Portfolio, 1970-2017
Replies: 37
Views: 3154

Re: Multi-Asset vs. Simple Portfolio, 1970-2017

There are real limits on the ability of past portfolio construction to divine with accuracy what is going to happen in the future even if the past backtesting period is 50 years. I think it is highly probable that stocks will outperform bonds over the next 50 years, since stocks are inherently more...
by Top99%
Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why do we work?
Replies: 121
Views: 10536

Re: Why do we work?

I view the distribution of people's job satisfaction as a bell curve with the far left side consisting of people who work only for the money and would quit the instant they didn't need to money and the far right consisting of people who would work even if they had no need for the money. My job satis...
by Top99%
Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Moving to a house from a condo
Replies: 7
Views: 683

Re: Moving to a house from a condo

Assuming the main issue is space I would look for options to use the space as efficiently as possible. For example, wall beds are a great means of double or triple purposing a room. Wall bed + desk with folding top surface would allow a room to be used as a bedroom, office and exercise room. My wife...
by Top99%
Sat Jun 02, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial setback stories
Replies: 21
Views: 3512

Re: Financial setback stories

The common Tech Bubble temporary multi-millionaire story.... October 17th 2000 at 5:00 PM: Net worth was about 2.1m after taxes with 1.7m of that in Nortel Stock options. October 17th 2000 at 5:05 PM after Nortel announce quarterly results: Net worth was .4m.... I had about 1/3 of my options vested ...
by Top99%
Fri May 25, 2018 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 100
Views: 8376

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

Health issues I think are the biggest risk BY FAR, followed by perhaps expensive divorce or other black swan law suit. The portfolio we have a range of expected outcomes and we plan for. Even in the disaster scenario most of us will be OK unless social security collapses. But medical issues, loss o...
by Top99%
Mon May 21, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Comparing ways to protect ones financial identity
Replies: 11
Views: 1274

Re: Comparing ways to protect ones financial identity

Rent a post office box and have any paper-based financial material sent there. Nothing financial sent to your home address. Anyone can steal anything from your home mailbox while you’re not looking. Great and often overlooked advice related to the risk of physical media as a source of identity thef...
by Top99%
Sun May 20, 2018 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 10719

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

I think I'm with Taylor on this one. I'm amazed this series has hit Part 24. I dunno, withdrawal rates are vastly more important than asset allocation but we see way more discussions of asset allocation around here. As if the difference between 50% international and 30% international is ever going ...
by Top99%
Sun May 20, 2018 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are downsides of ESPP @ 15% discount ?
Replies: 41
Views: 3035

Re: What are downsides of ESPP @ 15% discount ?

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 11:49 am

Taxes? I'd rather pay tax on "no work" profit than give up the profit.
I have a hard time convincing some of my coworkers of this. I always offer to pay the taxes for them if they hand me the 15% profit.
by Top99%
Sat May 19, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What’s your phone/internet bill?
Replies: 92
Views: 6296

Re: What’s your phone/internet bill?

Spectrum has a duopoly so with tax our 60 mbs internet is about $58
My cell phone service is with Republic Wireless at $17 month with tax
DW has Consumer Cellular and hers is about $38 with tax.
Since we don't have a land line we wanted our cellular service in 2 different carriers.
by Top99%
Fri Apr 27, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Financial Perils Of Old Age
Replies: 94
Views: 11328

Re: Larry Swedroe: Financial Perils Of Old Age

Thanks for posting this Dave and it has been interesting to hear the stories of other Bogleheads. My wife "retired" to look after her parents in 2006. They had zero assets beyond SS and my FIL had Diabetes so I can vouch for the expenses and mental toll on my wife. My MIL has had Alzheimer's severe ...
by Top99%
Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Money Or Your Life
Replies: 49
Views: 7036

Re: Your Money Or Your Life

My take away when I read Your Money or Your Life years ago: * Figure out what your real wage is (your paycheck minus all the costs of doing your work [gas, commute time, childcare, things you buy because you don't have time to do it yourself]) * When you're buying something, stop and think if it's ...
by Top99%
Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 156
Views: 16590

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

Trying to predict the future with math and past performance. And then we debate it ad nauseum. I like Taylor’s method. Make sure you have a reasonable amount to cover basics (ss, pension, annuity) or enough $ to get there if early retirement. In bad years, you may have to buckle down, not travel, e...
by Top99%
Sat Apr 14, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 156
Views: 16590

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

This is interesting especially given The Retire Early Home Page just updated their "real life retiree returns" http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/reallife18.html table. It looks to me whether 4% "works" depends on both the portfolio and the starting conditions. Comparing the tables for 1994 Vs 2000...
by Top99%
Sat Apr 14, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 156
Views: 16590

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

This is interesting especially given The Retire Early Home Page just updated their "real life retiree returns" http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/reallife18.html table. It looks to me whether 4% "works" depends on both the portfolio and the starting conditions. Comparing the tables for 1994 Vs 2000 ...
by Top99%
Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions
Replies: 25
Views: 1516

Re: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions

I don't have much faith in using valuations to set an allocation of stocks vs bonds. Except in situations like 2000 in US, when TIPS had a higher long term expected return than stocks. But I do use valuations to allocate among risky asset classes. Not sure there is any good research on this. I am a...
by Top99%
Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Newbie Looking to Get Started
Replies: 15
Views: 1347

Re: Newbie Looking to Get Started

http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/ has some great info on shaving expenses although you may find some of it a bit extreme. For your cell phone plans, once your contracts end you can buy cheap phones ands switch to Cricket, Republic Wireless etc. I would consider zeroing out your entire entertainment b...
by Top99%
Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE in the Context of Real Rates & Inflation, 1880-2018
Replies: 37
Views: 3933

Re: CAPE in the Context of Real Rates & Inflation, 1880-2018

Bottomline... In my humble opinion, those past observations, metrics and charts do not seem to tell us much about the current situation in 2017/18. Inflation is tame, interest rates are low, and... the Shiller PE simply has a life of its own. Simplegift- Thanks for starting a great thread. My own t...
by Top99%
Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job advice
Replies: 13
Views: 1201

Re: Job advice

Assuming the lower salary doesn't derail your retirement/financial independence plan I would absolutely buy a good chunk of life back by taking the job with the closer commute. If things were a little tight financially with the pay cut I would look at cutting expenses in areas (in my opinion) that h...
by Top99%
Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Move: Please convince me why I should not work in tech
Replies: 74
Views: 7872

Re: Career Move: Please convince me why I should not work in tech

I work have worked in tech since 1986 at 3 different Megacorps. Since OP asked why one should NOT work in tech: 1) If you are not good at saving money for a rainy day tech is not a good choice because when it rains it tends to pour. Many tech workers were unemployed for a long period of time in 2001...
by Top99%
Thu Mar 29, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Do You Value Your Home for Net Worth Purposes?
Replies: 150
Views: 10252

Re: How Do You Value Your Home for Net Worth Purposes?

I view my home as a place to live so I "calculate" the value as about 28x the net annual rental cost per year less the value I could get if I actually sold it. For net annual rental cost I subtract costs I currently pay that the landlord would pay if I rented. My rationale is the alternative would b...
by Top99%
Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Healthy eaters -- is this grocery budget normal to you?
Replies: 247
Views: 14304

Re: Healthy eaters -- is this grocery budget normal to you?

My wife and I spend nearly that much as well. We eat a LOT of fish which we generally buy from Whole Foods or from HEB when they offer sustainably fished product. We do keep our costs down a little by eating the fruits, vegetables and fish that are in season. We enjoy really good food and are trying...
by Top99%
Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would you do if you were in charge of a State Pension Fund?
Replies: 36
Views: 2273

Re: What would you do if you were in charge of a State Pension Fund?

In addition to switching to a low cost passive portfolio mentioned by several posters I would do my best to raise awareness about a responsible sustainable perpetual withdrawal rate (3.0% - 3.5% based on my research). If the State was insisting 6-8% was sustainable I would immediately quit.
by Top99%
Sun Mar 25, 2018 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What car should I get
Replies: 35
Views: 2767

Re: What car should I get

I personally think the jury is till out on the long term durability of turbo-charged engines which all trims of the Accord and some of the Civics have gone to. I applaud Toyota for sticking with naturally aspirated engines (for now). Since you mention you keep cars for a long time I this might be a ...
by Top99%
Wed Mar 21, 2018 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is the hedge against higher future interest rates and inflation: the house or the mortgage?
Replies: 18
Views: 1756

Re: Which is the hedge against higher future interest rates and inflation: the house or the mortgage?

I guess it depends on how you define your home value as hedging against inflation: 1) Keeping your housing costs relatively fixed relative to renting or 2) The sales value of the home itself keeping up with inflation. Counting my parents home in I have lived in 6 homes in FL, NC and TX since 1978. P...
by Top99%
Tue Mar 20, 2018 7:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rent in Retirement
Replies: 35
Views: 3596

Re: Rent in Retirement

I would recommend spending the time to do a fairly detailed analysis on renting Vs owning. There is probably a Google sheet out there with details but some often over-looked costs of owning include: 1) Loss of income on money tied up in the house 2) Repairs / replacement of appliances, roof, hot wat...
by Top99%
Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Believe Diversification Is More Important The Shorter The Time Frame?
Replies: 13
Views: 1288

Re: Do You Believe Diversification Is More Important The Shorter The Time Frame?

I am also in the "diversification is more important for longer time frame" camp. Short term CDs or low risk bonds work fine for the short term for me. Longer term I need our portfolio to support a level of spending which may or may not track the growth rate of the CPI since the basket of goods and s...
by Top99%
Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Umbrella Insurance
Replies: 16
Views: 1929

Re: Umbrella Insurance

There are some people who have posted real life examples on this board but here are a couple: 1) You are in a car crash which is deemed to be your fault and get sued for an amount of money greater than your auto policy will cover. This happened to at least one person on this board. 2) Someone injure...
by Top99%
Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans
Replies: 130
Views: 14378

Re: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans

Who knows, my point was that using current data one can invest, do we know that historical data has more predictive value than current data. If we knew historic patterns were a lock to repeat, investing would be easy. That is why we diversify and some of us hold emergency funds. Again to use the ba...
by Top99%
Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans
Replies: 130
Views: 14378

Re: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans

I do not think this Forum worships Larry Swedroe, if you have been around a while you know there are some tough critics of his on here. Having said that, I personally enjoy his articles and have read several of his books. Larry is always the first one to say over and over again, that if you have tr...
by Top99%
Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Another "Should I self-insure" for LTC Question
Replies: 119
Views: 7589

Re: Another "Should I self-insure" for LTC Question

From the flip side, if you only need 1.6% of your portfolio the LTC does not strain your retirement and you can afford it. Also it isn’t uncommon to pay more than $7k for health insurance, why is it unacceptable to pay that much for LTC? I would think I prefer the peace of mind of having it. The bi...
by Top99%
Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your investment strength?
Replies: 70
Views: 5604

Re: What is your investment strength?

Lack of emotion when it comes to investing. I trust data.
by Top99%
Sat Mar 03, 2018 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: Population Aging and Real Interest Rates, 1960-2060
Replies: 22
Views: 3350

Re: Study: Population Aging and Real Interest Rates, 1960-2060

A question I have is what would be considered a "normal" real interest rate for the US? A wonderful question. Most of the research I've seen falls into two camps — 1) those who view interest rates as a stationary data series, with reversion to a long-term mean, and 2) and those who reject the stati...
by Top99%
Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ratio of minimum vs discretionary retiree couple expenses
Replies: 51
Views: 3237

Re: Ratio of minimum vs discretionary retiree couple expenses

Essential expenses for us, insurance, taxes, food, auto, HOA, prescriptions, etc total about $4000/ month. Discretionary we budget $6000 more a month. That is dining, travel, hobbies, etc. so 40/60 is where we are at and that is living very comfortably. We are very close to those numbers. If times ...
by Top99%
Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: Population Aging and Real Interest Rates, 1960-2060
Replies: 22
Views: 3350

Re: Study: Population Aging and Real Interest Rates, 1960-2060

My feeling is that, in theory, demographics should be be a major driver of interest rates. However, in practice, I believe there are other factors that can swamp the demographic effects. I agree. I think the globalization of capital and goods production is a big factor. While global investment and ...
by Top99%
Fri Mar 02, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New vehicle research
Replies: 48
Views: 3758

Re: New vehicle research

I will +1 for the Camry but it really comes down to whether your wife wants a CUV or sedan. The new engine and transmission in the Camry really increased the delta in gas mileage between the two. Over 150K miles that $ savings could buy you some nice wine and food (my standard yard stick :wink: ) As...
by Top99%
Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: House vs Condo vs Townhouse
Replies: 36
Views: 2908

Re: House vs Condo vs Townhouse

We live in an end unit 1 story town home with an attached 2 car garage. Ideally we would have like an equivalent sized house with a <6000 square foot yard but in the end the 3 Ls (location, location, location) won out. All the detached homes in our location were either too old, had too big of yards ...
by Top99%
Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter Schiff Promotes Dividends to Protect Against Speculative Market Valuations
Replies: 22
Views: 2959

Re: Peter Schiff Promotes Dividends to Protect Against Speculative Market Valuations

I think right now the pursuit of dividends has lead to speculative market valuations in many traditional dividend centric assets (utilities, REITs, etc.). That doesn't feel like protection to me.
by Top99%
Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Index Investors Calm Markets?
Replies: 9
Views: 904

Re: Do Index Investors Calm Markets?

Index funds were certainly around in 2008/2009 and the markets seemed anything but calm back then. So, I think not. When people panic they sell.