Search found 387 matches

by Top99%
Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Source of U.S. Stock Market Returns, 1952-2018
Replies: 11
Views: 1210

Re: Source of U.S. Stock Market Returns, 1952-2018

^^^ To be honest, the details of the whole "labor vs. capital" issue in how the study authors constructed their models is something I was hoping to avoid in this thread, as it's likely to quickly devolve into politics. It's certainly a legitimate question for discussion, but perhaps just not here o...
by Top99%
Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: this time it's different
Replies: 70
Views: 6466

Re: this time it's different

This article ponders the same things I do (IE things seem upside down) but it certainly doesn't convince me to change my AA. Lots of things (most of which we can't discuss without getting threads locked) could happen that could change our trajectory. There is always the possibility (probability actu...
by Top99%
Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ESPP Help
Replies: 9
Views: 642

Re: ESPP Help

I’ve always viewed my ESPP as a short term, high yield CD. Holding company stock for the tax benefits is playing with fire. I’d bump up your contribution to 15% and nuke the rest. Sell as soon as the shares are granted. +1. I also like to keep in mind that having one's employment (paycheck) and net...
by Top99%
Mon Jul 29, 2019 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on P2P Lending
Replies: 37
Views: 2592

Re: Thoughts on P2P Lending

I invested some "play money" in LC about 3 years ago after reading about it on MrMoneyMustache.com and like several others have found the institutional money has crowded out the good loans in recent years. Or, to roughly quote Bill Bernstein, the umbrella shop has been discovered and the umbrellas a...
by Top99%
Tue Jul 09, 2019 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demographics are Not Destiny (due to Automation)
Replies: 22
Views: 2050

Re: Demographics are Not Destiny (due to Automation)

Automation can certainly help address a reduction in workers but the big question I have is how a shrinking work force will affect the demand side of the economy, especially if this becomes a world-wide phenomena in developed countries. Certainly demand for some goods and services are more coupled ...
by Top99%
Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demographics are Not Destiny (due to Automation)
Replies: 22
Views: 2050

Re: Demographics are Not Destiny (due to Automation)

Automation can certainly help address a reduction in workers but the big question I have is how a shrinking work force will affect the demand side of the economy, especially if this becomes a world-wide phenomena in developed countries. Certainly demand for some goods and services are more coupled t...
by Top99%
Fri Jul 05, 2019 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blockbuster
Replies: 34
Views: 3200

Re: Blockbuster

Blockbuster is a perfect example of a company that easily could have adapted and prospered but didn't. Sears is another. Sears had a strong mail order via catalog business so it seems like transitioning this to on-line orders should have been simple. Adorama and B&H Photo transitioned from catalog t...
by Top99%
Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good times: 2008 vs Now
Replies: 145
Views: 15118

Re: Good times: 2008 vs Now

If you had a secure job and money to invest 2008-2009 was a _very_ good time. The 2001-2002 and 2008-2009 asset sales certainly shortened our time to financial independence.
by Top99%
Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 19415

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

This has been a fascinating thread. Looking at one of my favorite sources http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/reallife19.html which shows returns for portfolios with the 4% "rule" applied I certainly prefer the smoother ride the more factor-centric (MPT and Larry Portfolio) portfolios provided especi...
by Top99%
Sun Jun 02, 2019 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret Index
Replies: 131
Views: 16907

Re: Diversification Regret

In my few years here both as a lurker and as a poster, I have seen the standard advice here drop from five funds down to two. This has happened in maybe eight years and it is alarming. The stay the course folks have not been staying the course. I have seen TIPS, REITs, and now International Stocks ...
by Top99%
Mon May 27, 2019 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4 Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 4527

Re: 4 Seasons Portfolio

This http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/reallife19.html site shows results for several portfolios with the 4% "rule" applied. As is often repeated around here the starting time (and conditions) matters a lot. If one starts in 1994 4 season lagged everything except 100% FI. If one starts in 1999 it f...
by Top99%
Mon May 20, 2019 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Real Life Long Term Return on Investment REIT Fund
Replies: 3
Views: 1109

Re: My Real Life Long Term Return on Investment REIT Fund

REITs were screaming cheap back in the early 2000s so it looks like you took advantage of that sale.
by Top99%
Sat May 11, 2019 11:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What non frugal things save money?
Replies: 84
Views: 10881

Re: What non frugal things save money?

Buying pacific wild salmon at the grocery store is more expensive than farm raised salmon (or certainly chicken) but certainly less expensive than going out to eat for what will probably be an unhealthy meal. And I believe spending money on healthy and delicious food will pay off down the road in re...
by Top99%
Sat May 11, 2019 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Post WWII US Returns’ Changing Nature
Replies: 33
Views: 3510

Re: Larry Swedroe: Post WWII US Returns’ Changing Nature

In fact, the stock market owes much of its return over the past 30 years not to economic growth but to shareholders earning an increasing share of that growth at the expense of workers. And this can only go so far before political actions occur (and we may be approaching that point). This growth at...
by Top99%
Mon May 06, 2019 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How and when did you do it - to get to 1 Million
Replies: 130
Views: 27896

Re: How and when did you do it - to get to 1 Million

which time? True for me. Went to $1m and back 2 times... The first time was during the tech bubble with some stock options that went took us to from $400K to $2.4M and then on Oct 17, 2000 at 5:01 PM went to zero... So, we were back to $400K but a lot wiser. The 2nd time was by saving a lot of mone...
by Top99%
Wed Apr 24, 2019 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is diversification the point of factor investing?
Replies: 56
Views: 3220

Re: Is diversification the point of factor investing?

In my case the goal of factor investing is less volatility and reduce sequence of returns risk. Looking at some actual returns in http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/reallife18.html which shows real portfolio values year over year with the 4% "rule" applied I see large cap stock heavy portfolios had ...
by Top99%
Wed Apr 03, 2019 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Make sure your retirement investment plan includes being fired from your job in your 50s
Replies: 285
Views: 17235

Re: Make sure your retirement investment plan includes being fired from your job in your 50s

I'm at a stage now where I could walk away if my job stopped being fulfilling (I'm certain I have far less in my retirement portfolio than the majority here, but I have ENOUGH, and am willing to adjust my spending). At this point, I really only need enough to pay my expenses ... I'd be ok if nothin...
by Top99%
Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Insurance Products better than the Stock Market?
Replies: 22
Views: 1824

Re: Any Insurance Products better than the Stock Market?

rgs92 wrote:
Sat Mar 30, 2019 9:48 am
Maybe an SPIA, but that's mainly for income but could be considered part of your fixed income allocation.
Yes and the steady stream of income might help you stay the course with your equity allocation during drawdowns. So, I view an SPIA as complimentary to the stock market.
by Top99%
Sat Mar 30, 2019 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "The best and worst U.S. states for retirement"
Replies: 303
Views: 33482

Re: "The best and worst U.S. states for retirement"

I am not surprised my state of Texas is rated mid-pack and certainly Austin where we live isn't cheap. But, at least with property tax centric states you can somewhat control your tax burden by spending less on housing and it motivated us to minimize our housing costs which is a good thing in other ...
by Top99%
Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why take the risk with equities?
Replies: 122
Views: 8312

Re: Why take the risk with equities?

All roads do indeed carry risk. If things get bad enough for the 4% rule to fail I think the odds of insurances companies selling SPIAs going bankrupt would also be high and the state "SPIA" guarantee would just be a speed bump. Many people are already saying that 3% is the new 4%. Are you predicti...
by Top99%
Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why take the risk with equities?
Replies: 122
Views: 8312

Re: Why take the risk with equities?

In the OP the huge difference between Scenarios 1-6 vs the different SPIA plans is the effect on Net Worth. With the SPIA, your original $1,000,000 is gone. With the withdrawal rate Scenarios, you still have whatever the Million Dollars has grown to or shrunk to. Or did I miss something? You are co...
by Top99%
Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: After ten years, most of the record of the crash is gone
Replies: 41
Views: 6350

Re: After ten years, most of the record of the crash is gone

Since the SEC requires that funds publish 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year returns, this means that there is no record of a bear market in the published returns. That may be true, but the experience of the tech crash and the financial crisis (both probably > 50% market losses) have significantly affecte...
by Top99%
Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you have 1 or 2 numbers for expenses in retirement?
Replies: 59
Views: 4386

Re: Do you have 1 or 2 numbers for expenses in retirement?

We have 2 numbers that are very far apart: #1 Bare minimum that still allows us to eat healthy tasty food we would cook at home and enjoy at least fine box wine. #2 Supports dining out, vacations, better wine, more frequent car replacements, new photography toys etc. Having a nest egg (including Soc...
by Top99%
Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Dividend Yield Plus Buyback Yield for 2018 Was 5.96%
Replies: 32
Views: 4119

Re: S&P 500 Dividend Yield Plus Buyback Yield for 2018 Was 5.96%

It isn't clear to me if this is based on _net_ buybacks. For example, the MegaCo I work at hands out a lot of company stock as compensation in the form of RSUs (restricted stock units) which vest over 3 years. These need to get accounted for to compute the net buyback. I am not familiar enough with...
by Top99%
Thu Mar 07, 2019 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Dividend Yield Plus Buyback Yield for 2018 Was 5.96%
Replies: 32
Views: 4119

Re: S&P 500 Dividend Yield Plus Buyback Yield for 2018 Was 5.96%

It isn't clear to me if this is based on _net_ buybacks. For example, the MegaCo I work at hands out a lot of company stock as compensation in the form of RSUs (restricted stock units) which vest over 3 years. These need to get accounted for to compute the net buyback. I am not familiar enough with ...
by Top99%
Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Long Term Returns, Short Time Periods
Replies: 10
Views: 1010

Re: Larry Swedroe: Long Term Returns, Short Time Periods

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-long-term-returns-short-time-periods Most all stock market gains come in unpredictable short bursts. Only way to experience the long term gains is to already be there for the short bursts; have a plan and stick to it. The market’s short ter...
by Top99%
Tue Feb 26, 2019 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 518
Views: 68159

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

I am very surprised to see the sentiment to accumulate extreme amounts in stock in order to feel safe, for example "50x living expenses in bonds and stocks". That thinking seems to dismiss the relevance of bonds and stocks. Which makes sensein a way when you think about them as just two markets. Th...
by Top99%
Mon Feb 25, 2019 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Time Varying Factor Premiums
Replies: 26
Views: 1627

Re: Larry Swedroe: Time Varying Factor Premiums

This makes intuitive sense to me given it is human nature to performance chase and based on my own observations since the late 1990s (when I started paying attention). 1) Time = M: Asset class X outperforms the overall market for L years 2) Time = M + N: Asset class X gets bid up by performance chas...
by Top99%
Sun Feb 17, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 518
Views: 68159

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Good work. Any idea about how much does the 100% stock guy have now? As of the end of last month, they would have an inflation-adjusted $361,445 ($539,555 nominal), nine more years of expenses assuming a 0% real return. They might make it to the 30 year mark, but a big market downturn that isn't fo...
by Top99%
Tue Feb 05, 2019 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "House Rules," Clements on the finances of homeownership
Replies: 63
Views: 6918

Re: "House Rules," Clements on the finances of homeownership

I believe the most lucrative option is renting the smallest apartment you are happy with. That will beat any strategy involving a house. And why do you think that is cheaper than buying that same apartment? Odds are it isn't. In the end everything comes down to assumptions. With 5% appreciation and...
by Top99%
Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "House Rules," Clements on the finances of homeownership
Replies: 63
Views: 6918

Re: "House Rules," Clements on the finances of homeownership

We have many friends who live closed in to a large city. Their houses were paid for with paychecks and were bought as a place to live. Due to the easy commute and proximity to Metro stops, those who have sold their houses received for the most part $1MM or more for their houses. It has turned out t...
by Top99%
Mon Feb 04, 2019 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "House Rules," Clements on the finances of homeownership
Replies: 63
Views: 6918

Re: "House Rules," Clements on the finances of homeownership

....3. ...home prices nationwide should rise roughly in line with per-capita GDP.... we shouldn’t expect to do a whole lot better than a percentage point or so a year more than inflation.... At the macro level this makes sense but I think there are really two housing markets: 1: "Paycheck" houses -...
by Top99%
Mon Feb 04, 2019 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Pain, No Premium
Replies: 12
Views: 1652

Re: No Pain, No Premium

This was really interesting and the 2 points I really liked: 1) The "SP500 envy" table showing tracking error regret. This is especially timely given the outperformance of US large cap growth from 2009-2017. Tracking error regret is one of the largest challenges of "staying the course" with a divers...
by Top99%
Sun Feb 03, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Seeking Alpha: The Dark Side Of John Bogle's Legacy]
Replies: 72
Views: 6758

Re: [Seeking Alpha: The Dark Side Of John Bogle's Legacy]

Assuming one wants exposure to corporate bonds I don't see how one avoids using a mutual fund unless one either has a _lot_ of money and can afford to buy enough individual corporate bonds to be diversified or one is willing to concentrate on a small set of corporate bonds. So, if one wants exposure...
by Top99%
Sun Feb 03, 2019 9:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Concerned about Alzheimers, how do you plan for LTC?
Replies: 80
Views: 5723

Re: Concerned about Alzheimers, how do you plan for LTC?

My mother in law has Alzheimers and my wife has been caring for her since 2009 with the last 2+ years requiring she be in full time memory care. Here in Austin TX we are paying about $55K per year but one can certainly pay more. The finances are one thing but the mental toll on loved ones this disea...
by Top99%
Sat Feb 02, 2019 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected Growth Next Decade?
Replies: 48
Views: 3895

Re: Expected Growth Next Decade?

After reading Hendrik Bessembinder's paper https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2900447 and the opening letter in Stone Ridge's semi-annual report https://www.stoneridgefunds.com/documents/IntervalFundAnnualReport.pdf I am in the US equity "returns will be lower than in the past" camp...
by Top99%
Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What do you think are (some of) the best states to live in?
Replies: 144
Views: 13608

Re: What do you think are (some of) the best states to live in?

As others have pointed out COL can vary by area within a state. But another factor that affects COL is how various states collect their tax revenue. States that depend mainly on property taxes (such as Texas where I live) have a low COL if you own a relatively inexpensive house and have fairly high ...
by Top99%
Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Please share some lifestyle creep you regret.
Replies: 130
Views: 11330

Re: Please share some lifestyle creep you regret.

For us it was house size and expense creep. Our first house was 1760 SF and after 3 moves we went to 2600 SF then 3670 SF then down to 2400 SF and finally back to the size of our first house. I don't even like to think about the money we burned on that. Wall beds and folding desks are a great way to...
by Top99%
Sun Jan 27, 2019 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?
Replies: 114
Views: 8305

Re: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?

I learned the stock market can be somewhat decoupled from economic fundamentals. I guess I sort of knew that already but 2018 was the first time I saw it in action.
by Top99%
Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worth Of A Man: A Tribute To John C. Bogle
Replies: 45
Views: 6112

Re: The Worth Of A Man: A Tribute To John C. Bogle

Thanks for posting a nice tribute to a man who did so much for so many.
by Top99%
Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a house at the peak of the market
Replies: 7
Views: 1060

Re: Buying a house at the peak of the market

I find it pretty enlightening to plug housing prices into an on-line inflation calculator. All the places I have lived over the long term housing prices have either lagged inflation over the long term or barely kept up. The caveat is I only look at what I refer to as "paycheck" houses (price range b...
by Top99%
Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are REITs better to purchase when interest rates are high or low?
Replies: 68
Views: 4928

Re: Are REITs better to purchase when interest rates are high or low?

My observation having owned REITs since 2000 is that they benefit when rates are falling and struggle when rates are rising. The “yield” paid out as distributions competes to some degree with other investments. As rates fall, that yield becomes more attractive, driving REIT prices up. This is my ex...
by Top99%
Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Budgeting
Replies: 10
Views: 1539

Re: Retirement Budgeting

What is often missed in budgeting but important is replacing/repair appliances, your roof etc. For appliances, we just divide the replacement cost by 10 (assuming a 10 year life) and multiply and add that to our annual budget. You can do that with items like painting your house, replacing the roof e...
by Top99%
Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is this budget lean enough?
Replies: 31
Views: 2216

Re: Is this budget lean enough?

This looks pretty lean to me. For cell phones, does that include the cost of buying the unlocked phones and then amortizing them over X years? I like to buy unlocked phones that are 1-2 generations behind the leading edge to save money. If money is really tight you might be able to shave a little bi...
by Top99%
Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Bad News In Perspective
Replies: 4
Views: 1166

Re: Larry Swedroe: Bad News In Perspective

Thanks Dave and I was also in the "we are overdue for a correction" camp. This article made me rethink that a bit. 2018 was certainly not the best year for international and value stocks to put it mildly. They were certainly enough to overpower the gains I had in CDs and alt lending. I find a quick ...
by Top99%
Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: what do you think about my advice to my brother please help!
Replies: 24
Views: 2573

Re: what do you think about my advice to my brother please help!

I think this is good advice overall but I would suggest: 1) Educate him about the size of a nest egg required to support retirement. Basically in the range of 25x-35x expenses. Many people have no clue about this and it should help him focus on the need to save plus help with your suggestion of havi...
by Top99%
Sun Dec 30, 2018 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: College Inflation rate?
Replies: 59
Views: 3615

Re: College Inflation rate?

One of my favorite quotes is "if something can't continue it will stop" and I think this applies to the inflation rate in college tuition. As an engineer I have watched starting salaries roughly track inflation since I graduated in 1984 while college costs have greatly outpaced inflation. At some po...
by Top99%
Wed Dec 26, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What have you learned this year
Replies: 90
Views: 7289

Re: What have your learned this year

Financial: An asset allocation that looked rather stodgy and overly-conservative during the go-go seasons has looked (and performed) pretty good over these last few tumultuous weeks. Personal: Health is paramount, and should be cherished, protected, and nourished to be best of one’s abilities. Than...
by Top99%
Wed Dec 26, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: My Christmas Present To You
Replies: 108
Views: 12114

Re: My Christmas Present To You

Thank you for your service Taylor. The service provided by you and others in our military is the reason I am free to type this among all the other freedoms we take for granted but should not.
by Top99%
Sun Dec 23, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement
Replies: 145
Views: 20844

Re: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement

Scott Burns, a now-retired personal finance journalist who introduced me to index funds, used to make the point that the probability of your portfolio “failing” at a ripe old age needed to be balanced with the probability of you (or your spouse) not being around to care. Here’s his analysis: https:...