Search found 66 matches

by UKFred
Fri Sep 25, 2020 1:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone REGRET retiring too soon?
Replies: 66
Views: 12663

Re: Anyone REGRET retiring too soon?

While mine have now passed, my old mantra was I can do anything for three days. I’d also use a flight upgrade for a quiet, relaxing flight home. Interesting mantra! How did that come about? Not quite the same, but Benjamin Franklin did say, “guests, like fish, begin to smell after three days”
by UKFred
Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I know what withdrawal rate to use?
Replies: 53
Views: 4664

Re: How do I know what withdrawal rate to use?

So, I am leaning towards a modified (or at least a simplified) form of Guyton-Klinger rules as my preferred withdrawal strategy. [...] A few years before my own early retirement, I studied withdrawal methods at length, including extensive backtesting (here is one thread where I discusses some resul...
by UKFred
Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:21 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Uk resident making a gift to his son (French resident). Tax question
Replies: 4
Views: 462

Re: Uk resident making a gift to his son (French resident). Tax question

I am going purely by logic and not knowledge - so I am probably completely wrong! Given that it is a gift tax on the French side and inheritance tax on the UK side, I suspect that both will be applied. It is possible that dual taxation treaty relief might be available (though unlikely) if U.K. inher...
by UKFred
Mon Aug 10, 2020 4:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I know what withdrawal rate to use?
Replies: 53
Views: 4664

Re: How do I know what withdrawal rate to use?

JoeRetire wrote: Sun Aug 09, 2020 3:56 pm I think you are confusing "safe" versus "optimal".
Very good point! Optimal is a better word to express what I mean.
by UKFred
Sun Aug 09, 2020 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I know what withdrawal rate to use?
Replies: 53
Views: 4664

Re: How do I know what withdrawal rate to use?

Thanks all for your personal experiences and views. It was very interesting and informative. In the UK, we don't have to make RMDs, but our pension portfolio value is limited to £1.07M with the excess being taxed at 55% at various points in life including at death. We also have ISAs, which are inves...
by UKFred
Sun Aug 09, 2020 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I know what withdrawal rate to use?
Replies: 53
Views: 4664

Re: How do I know what withdrawal rate to use?

aristotelian wrote: Sun Aug 09, 2020 8:47 am That is fine if you have the flexibility to reduce spending later. If you are on a budget that would of course be the riskiest approach.
Agreed. Absolutely. This is a very good point. I do have the flexibility and other income that makes this possible for me.
by UKFred
Sun Aug 09, 2020 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I know what withdrawal rate to use?
Replies: 53
Views: 4664

Re: How do I know what withdrawal rate to use?

You can always do SWR and increase your spending if you get favorable returns, which amounts to the same thing. My holy grail is the opposite! Start with a higher withdrawal rate and then reduce it if the markets don’t support the level of withdrawal, on the basis that I will be able to enjoy the m...
by UKFred
Sun Aug 09, 2020 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I know what withdrawal rate to use?
Replies: 53
Views: 4664

Re: How do I know what withdrawal rate to use?

nisiprius wrote: Sun Aug 09, 2020 7:25 am Do you see yourself running a spreadsheet sitting up in bed in a nursing home?
Good point :oops:
by UKFred
Sun Aug 09, 2020 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I know what withdrawal rate to use?
Replies: 53
Views: 4664

Re: How do I know what withdrawal rate to use?

Thanks all for your replies so far. It seems that a number of you like VPW, so perhaps I should give it more consideration.
by UKFred
Sun Aug 09, 2020 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I know what withdrawal rate to use?
Replies: 53
Views: 4664

Re: How do I know what withdrawal rate to use?

JoeRetire wrote: Sun Aug 09, 2020 7:35 am Seems kinda like the definition of "safe withdrawal rate" to me?
I agree. But we can only know what the safe rate is at the end of retirement, while I am trying to think of a way to discover it (or at least fine tune it) as I go along.
by UKFred
Sun Aug 09, 2020 6:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I know what withdrawal rate to use?
Replies: 53
Views: 4664

How do I know what withdrawal rate to use?

First of all, apologies for my long post… TLDR: Use a simplified G-K strategy to discover my own withdrawal rate. I am in my mid-50’s and I am planning to retire in the next couple of years. Naturally, my thoughts have been turning towards withdrawal strategies. The basic strategy, of course, is Ben...
by UKFred
Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:25 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Have recently acquired lump sum to invest [UK]
Replies: 17
Views: 1163

Re: Have recently acquired lump sum to invest [UK]

You can only put as much into a SIPP as your taxable income in the year (subject to 40K or less annual allowance + carry forwards). So unless your annual income and your lump sum are of similar magnitude, you can’t put much of the lump sum into a SIPP. The other thing to think about is that with a S...
by UKFred
Wed May 29, 2019 1:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fun paid jobs after FIRE
Replies: 180
Views: 18950

Re: Fun paid jobs after FIRE

I prefer the acronym FIRE = Financial Independence/Recreational Employment
by UKFred
Sat May 25, 2019 1:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage almost paid off
Replies: 31
Views: 3664

Re: Mortgage almost paid off

In the US, the deed will generally be recorded in a "book" held by some unit of government. (For me this is the county government building which is paradoxically located in the biggest city in the county even though the county doesn't control the city.) As the owner, you'll get some sort of paper d...
by UKFred
Fri May 24, 2019 12:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage almost paid off
Replies: 31
Views: 3664

Re: Mortgage almost paid off

First of all, congrats. In the UK, you are generally advised to leave a small amount outstanding on the mortgage (say £100). The bank then continues holding the deeds because you haven't paid off the mortgage. Secure storage for a tiny amount of interest. Is that not something followed in the US?
by UKFred
Sat May 11, 2019 3:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?
Replies: 29
Views: 2342

Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

An IBM 5MB hard drive in 1956...

Image
by UKFred
Wed May 01, 2019 12:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: EXTREMELY frugal things from our parents and grandparents
Replies: 110
Views: 10729

Re: EXTREMELY frugal things from our parents and grandparents

One of my uncles used to borrow the previous day's newspaper from a neighbour and read it. One day I offered to give him that day's paper and my uncle refused, saying that he wouldn't have anything to read the next day.
by UKFred
Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Techniques for doing NOTHING?
Replies: 48
Views: 5145

Re: Techniques for doing NOTHING?

Great question and something I recognise in myself as well. I think the best way to beat this is to embrace it. Put most (95%) in your preferred low cost funds for your preferred AA. Then play with your other 5% and try to beat the other 95%. You’ll learn a lot about yourself and the markets in the ...
by UKFred
Sat Apr 13, 2019 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETFs vs. Mutual Funds ("Bogleheads Mentioned in the NYT")
Replies: 60
Views: 9384

ETFs vs. Mutual Funds ("Bogleheads Mentioned in the NYT")

In the UK, most platforms charge a percentage fee to hold mutual funds and a flat fee to hold ETFs. It makes more sense to use ETFs than their equivalent funds.

Just because they can be traded doesn’t mean that they have to be.
by UKFred
Sat Apr 06, 2019 2:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Benefits Of International Diversification
Replies: 86
Views: 7779

Re: Larry Swedroe: Benefits Of International Diversification

Today the US market capitalisation is approximately 50% of world market capitalisation. One can easily imagine a scenario in which the US market cap percentage goes to 30% (say) in 20 or 25 years, not because the US has done badly, but because other countries have done better. In that case, would yo...
by UKFred
Sat Apr 06, 2019 2:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "dividend preference anomaly"
Replies: 183
Views: 9996

Re: The "dividend preference anomaly"

I have a theory: if you think that you own 100 shares of Apple, the price of which bounces up and down in ways that you cannot predict or control, spending a dividend makes sense (psychologically) because you haven’t lost anything when you do so. You still own 100 shares of Apple. Moving on from psy...
by UKFred
Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why not 50 Stocks- 50 Bonds, wait for crash then go 90-10?
Replies: 54
Views: 4795

Re: Why not 50 Stocks- 50 Bonds, wait for crash then go 90-10?

1. Markets don’t fall in a straight line. The day after a significant drop and just as you are thinking of getting into the game, the market will post one of its biggest gains ever. And then it will crash again. And rise. Redux. 2. It’s psychologically very difficult to increase allocation into a fa...
by UKFred
Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: simple will for a catastrophic event
Replies: 88
Views: 3915

Re: simple will for a catastrophic event

In a way, making a 'simple' will is likely to cause more problems than actually dying intestate. Given that it seems to be a nuclear family with no ex spouses or step children involved, the intestacy laws will be mostly fair. Though of course there will be delays in getting probate and lawyers will ...
by UKFred
Sat Feb 23, 2019 6:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I have the answer - 4% plus 2 years (or 3.7% if you prefer)
Replies: 81
Views: 7017

Re: I have the answer - 4% plus 2 years (or 3.7% if you prefer)

It’s a good idea. I would modify it slightly to say that you are FI at 4%. Then you work for eighteen months. If the market tanks big time and your portfolio tanks, you have the option to continue working because you haven’t yet left the workforce. Otherwise, you retire as planned. This would give y...
by UKFred
Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT opinion piece calling for more investigation of index providers
Replies: 21
Views: 3904

What's in your index?

[merged into existing thread - moderator prudent]

I can't make out whether this is self-serving or not... https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/18/opin ... e=Homepage
by UKFred
Sat Feb 16, 2019 2:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 432474

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Has anyone implemented (or considered implementing) this strategy in Europe? If so, which ETFs are you using? These days most europeans do not have access to US domiciled ETFs, so I was wondering if anyone knows good Europe domiciled ETFs to implement this strategy? I am implementing this with 3UKL...
by UKFred
Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 432474

Re: Strategy Optimization

To replicate that result, you would go to rolling portfolio optimization and use the ticker UPRO and TMF, not the constructed indexes going back to the 80s. You would then select monthly (or quarterly or annual, all show the same 100% cash in this case) optimization with a 12 month lookback period....
by UKFred
Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 432474

Re: Strategy Optimization

Within the mostly fun department. The best portfolio is the one optimizing monthly based on previous 12 months. Provided Portfolio == 40/60 3x Levered. Incidentally, since cash is an option. The model is in cash now. Cheers :greedy Hdas- your analysis is quite interesting. Could you elaborate a bit...
by UKFred
Sun Feb 03, 2019 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The most important driver of retirement portfolio success (having enough nestegg at retirement)
Replies: 52
Views: 6058

Re: The most important driver of retirement portfolio success (having enough nestegg at retirement)

A high savings rate (rather than absolute amount saved) is a better indicator of retirement success because the savings rate works in two different ways to guide you to success: first, and obviously, a higher savings rate means you are saving more money, and all things being equal, more money is bet...
by UKFred
Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why doesn't a lot of money feel like a lot of money?
Replies: 205
Views: 23143

Re: Why doesn't a lot of money feel like a lot of money?

If it helps, convert it to brand new Cadillacs. They run around $50,000 so think of the bonus as how many ever brand new Cadillacs it would buy. If it is quite a large number them and you are overwhelmed, bump it up to Mercedes-Benzes ($100,000), Bentleys ($300,000) or modest NYC apartments ($1MM)....
by UKFred
Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone beating the index instead of buying it?
Replies: 51
Views: 5731

Re: Anyone beating the index instead of buying it?

My portfolio is split into two - half in broad UK and Global ex-UK funds that I let run and the other half in individual stocks that I manage myself by buying in and out. I have been doing this for about fifteen years, but initially the amounts were so small in relation to my salary that I didn't re...
by UKFred
Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Historical Data Can Comfort
Replies: 6
Views: 917

Re: Larry Swedroe: Historical Data Can Comfort

If you're a German in December 1941, and you see Germany declare war on the United States, you convert your life savings to gold and bury it someplace on the family farm. But then you would have the bogleheads telling you to stay the course and your decision to bury gold will be wrong for the next ...
by UKFred
Sun Jan 06, 2019 12:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: travel to UK and Brexit
Replies: 8
Views: 807

Re: travel to UK and Brexit

If you are not travelling to or from the EU, it should be no different to now. Even the EU has decided to keep aeroplanes flying as normal for at least six months (though they have reserved the right to change their minds unilaterally). The UK will be absolutely determined to minimise disruption at ...
by UKFred
Sun Dec 30, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I retirement ready?
Replies: 63
Views: 8245

Re: Am I retirement ready?

It looks like you have only been making serious money for the last few years and it seems a shame to walk away from that too quickly unless you really want to or have to. Your real issue could be the weekly commute. Have you explored whether your wife could move to where you work? If so, that could ...
by UKFred
Fri Nov 09, 2018 4:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money are you leaving your kids after you die?
Replies: 234
Views: 16973

Re: How much money are you leaving your kids after you die?

I will tell you when I find out:
1. How long my wife and I live
2. How inflationary those years are
3. How the markets perform
4. Whether we need long term care and for how long...

:confused
by UKFred
Fri Nov 02, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Easy retirement income method.
Replies: 20
Views: 4144

Re: Easy retirement income method.

UKFred, From your name, I'm assuming you are not from the United States. (I didn't look at your profile until just now.) In the U.S., dividends from most U.S. companies are "qualified" dividends which are taxed the same as long term capital gains, normally 15% at the U.S. Federal level, not as ordi...
by UKFred
Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Easy retirement income method.
Replies: 20
Views: 4144

Re: Easy retirement income method.

Relying on dividend income rather than share sales keeps cropping up. Relying on dividend income can work - mainly because that keeps the WR low. There are three main issues with relying on dividends for retirement income: 1. You know what income you need. Dividends are decided by company boards who...
by UKFred
Sun Oct 28, 2018 4:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 121260

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

- Adding back assumed dividend yield of 2.5% gets me very close to the total return of international stocks for US investor of 4.4% I mentioned earlier, so the math works out. .... The main culprit outside Japan is the UK - Valuethinker may have some insight into that. I do think that the European ...
by UKFred
Thu May 31, 2018 4:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Intra-family Mortgage Considerations
Replies: 3
Views: 610

Re: Intra-family Mortgage Considerations

I think that if you discuss upfront what happens in various circumstances - interest rate changes, parents needing money, you moving house, death in family - and these are written down, then an intra-family mortgage can make sense. This is especially the case when you are a single child as this take...
by UKFred
Thu Mar 15, 2018 3:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Stephen Hawking - how would he have fared in America
Replies: 9
Views: 1977

Re: Stephen Hawking - how would he have fared in America

Agreed, it’s only tangentially related to investing. I only asked here because I am not on any other American forum and there is a lot of interesting discussion here related to healthcare and long term care with regards to retirement.
by UKFred
Thu Mar 15, 2018 2:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Stephen Hawking - how would he have fared in America
Replies: 9
Views: 1977

Stephen Hawking - how would he have fared in America

One of the most brilliant minds of all time, the physicist Stephen Hawking, died earlier this week. He was in his early twenties when he was diagnosed with ALS, the progressive motor neurone disease that crippled him and eventually left him unable to move anything except a finger and his eyelids. He...
by UKFred
Wed Mar 14, 2018 5:11 pm
Forum: Non-US Chapters
Topic: Is there a U.K bogleheads Chapter??
Replies: 29
Views: 7123

Re: Is there a U.K bogleheads Chapter??

Has anyone volunteered to be the coordinator?
by UKFred
Tue Mar 13, 2018 3:17 pm
Forum: Non-US Chapters
Topic: Is there a U.K bogleheads Chapter??
Replies: 29
Views: 7123

Re: Is there a U.K bogleheads Chapter??

And me!
by UKFred
Wed Jan 31, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much have kids added to your personal finance/expenses?
Replies: 111
Views: 11592

Re: How much have kids added to your personal finance/expenses?

24.5% of your income, whether that is 10K or it is 10M. :D
by UKFred
Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Warning on "free" Morningstar trial
Replies: 37
Views: 9941

Re: Warning on "free" Morningstar trial

... I used a disposable credit card number with $1 limit and one-time use just in case they attempt to charge it. Is there any reason to think that Morningstar will charge your card after you’ve cancelled the account? Or that your bank will not reverse the charges if Morningstar do make that charge?
by UKFred
Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20234
Views: 2761878

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

sreynard wrote: Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:48 pm S&P 500 down 28%! It's a blood bath!

[Edit] Oh! That's 0.28%.
28% would be a bloodbath!
by UKFred
Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 4% Rule Clarification in regard to taxes
Replies: 6
Views: 1251

Re: 4% Rule Clarification in regard to taxes

PFInterest wrote: Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:34 pm Everything must be included in expenses....including taxes.
And asset management fees, if any... so, suddenly that 1% AUMF is a quarter of your entire annual income :oops:
by UKFred
Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying off a mortgage with an almost non-existent rate
Replies: 15
Views: 1856

Re: Paying off a mortgage with an almost non-existent rate

From a purely financial point of view, it makes no sense to pay off the mortgage because you can probably earn more (post tax) than your monthly payments. But there is another aspect to consider: How likely is it that you will diligently invest that money month-on-month? Will your expenses slowly cr...
by UKFred
Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best Retirement Planning Software?
Replies: 6
Views: 1612

Re: Best Retirement Planning Software?

Microsoft Excel? :mrgreen:
by UKFred
Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau’s new book: How Much Can I Spend in Retirement?
Replies: 58
Views: 16706

Re: Wade Pfau’s new book: How Much Can I Spend in Retirement?

Yes, I have read the book and it is an excellent summary of many different withdrawal strategies from a portfolio. It takes Bengen's 4% + inflation as the baseline (while examining why it is inefficient). The early chapters summarise the issues faced in financing a long retirement from a fixed pot o...