Search found 723 matches

by Hyperborea
Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Your Fixed Income Strategy?
Replies: 89
Views: 8341

Re: What's Your Fixed Income Strategy?

Years to retirement or already in retirement? 2 years into an early retirement and I'm in my early-ish 50's. Fixed income allocation as part of total allocation (Equity/Fixed Income) About 60/40 on a sort of glide path towards somewhere around 90/10 or so. It's only a sort of glide path because tax...
by Hyperborea
Sat Nov 10, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 333
Views: 72251

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Is there a way to see the returns of a portfolio that contributes $1000 to the US total stock market portfolio on a monthly basis since inception, vs one that contributes $800 to US and $200 to intl indices? Yes, you can do it on portfolio visualizer. From 1986 until today (32 years), with your con...
by Hyperborea
Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to plan for bonus without knowing amount?
Replies: 32
Views: 1849

Re: How to plan for bonus without knowing amount?

When I was working the largest part of my yearly income was stock and bonuses. The salary was good (6 figures) but the variable part was much larger. We lived out of the fixed salary part of my income only. The variables parts were entirely thrown into the investment pool. The variable amount can so...
by Hyperborea
Thu Nov 01, 2018 3:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I'm 100% stocks
Replies: 149
Views: 17063

Re: Why I'm 100% stocks

I was being rather sarcastic... but still the point is 100% is pretty arbitrary. If so then so is 50% or 20% or 75%. All are just as much arbitrary or not as 100%. But then usually this argument is only put forward by those trying to defend their own allocation and poo-poo another's choice. One mig...
by Hyperborea
Fri Oct 19, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What do you consider 'enough'?
Replies: 96
Views: 11281

Re: What do you consider 'enough'?

Does anyone out there in their working years have a way of figuring out what is 'enough' in terms of income to support their current lifestyle and to also save for the future? Depending on your job/career you need to think of more than your income. It's pretty hard to come to a set income level and...
by Hyperborea
Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where would you go for financial guidance if you win the Megamillions?
Replies: 188
Views: 16799

Re: Where would you go for financial guidance if you win the Megamillions?

Murgatroyd wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 6:49 am
My dream is to give my beloved university enough endowment to have a building in my name.
Doesn’t Murgatroyd Hall sound intellectual?
Make it a building for the astronomy department and you could call it "Heavens to Murgatroyd". :P
by Hyperborea
Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retired applying for credit cards
Replies: 22
Views: 2106

Re: Retired applying for credit cards

I've had no problem getting credit cards after I retired even premium credit cards (AmEx Platinum with a 100K point sign on bonus). I've listed retired and put down an income that was my yearly withdrawal from my portfolio.
by Hyperborea
Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 11263

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

I wonder why the heat is turned on for this topic but not for any other nearly to this extent. I don’t recall the small-value tilters or age-in-bonds folks looking down their noses nearly as much as I see the “globalists” do when this topic comes up every week. I’ve never seen a small-value tilter ...
by Hyperborea
Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 226
Views: 19453

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

If your objective is to translate decades of "saving for retirement" into retirement income, the medium and low inflation adjusted SWR's (3-4%) lack much utility, other than providing a pretty good stake in the richest person in the graveyard contest. Here's 5% of annual portfolio balance spend wit...
by Hyperborea
Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any great (or even decent) Anki or AnkiDroid users?
Replies: 5
Views: 645

Re: Any great (or even decent) Anki or AnkiDroid users?

I also use on my Droid phone and have tried to create decks only on my desktop, but don’t seem to have a clue how to do it. Can you edit shared decks? Like have notes present one of the other fields (written, or English, rather than audio)? Then start simple and work your way up to more complex thi...
by Hyperborea
Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any great (or even decent) Anki or AnkiDroid users?
Replies: 5
Views: 645

Re: Any great (or even decent) Anki or AnkiDroid users?

The deck making for Anki is the easy part, it's getting the data to make the deck from that is the hard part. Where are you planning to get that from? You are going to have to enter it yourself, find it out there somewhere, or repurpose an existing Anki deck. Entering it will take a long time but wi...
by Hyperborea
Thu Sep 27, 2018 11:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 658
Views: 82740

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

Peppergrass wrote:
Thu Sep 27, 2018 11:35 pm
I'm 34. goal is 444 million
I don't think anybody with goals that high will ever retire. First, most people will never get there. Second, those that do have far too much ego tied up in their money and "skill" in getting there to ever retire.
by Hyperborea
Thu Sep 27, 2018 11:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Testing validity of Monte Carlo Simulators
Replies: 34
Views: 2161

Re: Testing validity of Monte Carlo Simulators

There is skepticism. No doubt about it. People dismiss any model that tries to give some sort of forecast to your money. Data bad, what data, forgot some data, data insufficient. That is skepticism. So, I pose this question. What do you use to help you forecast your financial future? I don't have a...
by Hyperborea
Thu Sep 27, 2018 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing theory
Replies: 15
Views: 1456

Re: Rebalancing theory

I've made it a rule to never generate taxable income just for the sake of rebalancing. The allocation percentages are fuzzy anyways so a some amount out from the desired ratios won't matter that much. Even if it takes a few years to move back into line it doesn't matter. During accumulation that mea...
by Hyperborea
Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 658
Views: 82740

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

A typical suburban house with 2500 sqft and 4 bedrooms will have taxes around $12K in Bostom Metrowest area *WITH* good school system. I live about 40 miles from Boston and my taxes for that house are over $13K. The assessed price is around $700K. My RE portion had been always higher than PI since ...
by Hyperborea
Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area housing frenzy cooling
Replies: 120
Views: 18265

Re: Bay Area housing frenzy cooling

First off Oakland isn't real bay area You lost me in your first line. It's not 'real' Bay Area? It's literally on the Bay, and just across it from SF. What could be more 'Bay Area'? :shock: :) https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bc/Bayarea_map.png Yes, it's geographically part of the B...
by Hyperborea
Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area housing frenzy cooling
Replies: 120
Views: 18265

Re: Bay Area housing frenzy cooling

I generally agree, though there is some variability - consider SF's direct neighbor to the east (literally one BART stop away): https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Oakland-California/market-trends/ From 2000 to the peak in 2007, median sale prices went from $170,000 to $530,000. They then proceeded ...
by Hyperborea
Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 20388

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

One of my "clues" came from another thread on this site. People were really lecturing a commenter who came on this site around 2015 announcing they pulled out of the stock market because of high valuations. More recently, someone reposted the thread and lots of "experts" jumped in to give this lost...
by Hyperborea
Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 20388

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

dogagility, It is not 500K more. It is 2.4 million versus 1.9 million. This is personal finance. We are subject to the marginal utility of money. At 2.4 million, having 500K more does not make a difference in my life. But, losing 1.2 million will change my life. I can afford to have 500K less at 1....
by Hyperborea
Mon Sep 10, 2018 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 20388

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

KlangFool wrote:
Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:42 pm
Isn't that the problem? "Man plan, God laughs".
That's a pretty defeatist attitude. If planning is worthless then why bother saving and investing? We might be dead tomorrow and have put the money to better use rather than piling it up. Spend it all on hookers and blow.

:sharebeer
by Hyperborea
Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Singing/Voice Classes
Replies: 20
Views: 1389

Re: Singing/Voice Classes

I took some singing lessons for a number of months. I play a couple of musical instruments and I wanted to sing along with my playing. The lessons were very helpful. My instructor helped me to sing better to pitch - it's a muscle memory type of thing where you need to learn the right way to produce ...
by Hyperborea
Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can Sneakers go with Business Casual?
Replies: 172
Views: 8665

Re: Can Sneakers go with Business Casual?

You can get comfortable, business casual style sneakers for your feet that aren't athletic shoes. Just an example:https://www.johnstonmurphy.com/men-shoes-sneakers "McGuffy Lace up" Frankly once you break in some nice leather loafers with leather soles they are as comfortable as anything else. I re...
by Hyperborea
Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can Sneakers go with Business Casual?
Replies: 172
Views: 8665

Re: Can Sneakers go with Business Casual?

but there are zero non-manual labor workplaces where I'd show up in literal running shoes Visit a Silicon Valley, Portland, Seattle, Boulder, Austin, etc. tech office sometime. Well, there you've got the folks in bare feet, sandals, and those weird toe shoes to contend with as well. And pyjamas hav...
by Hyperborea
Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com
Replies: 69
Views: 5762

Re: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com

You are using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions. People have been predicting low equity returns over the next decade for well over a decade. I haven't seen a compelling argument to expect less than 8-10% going forward, maybe a bit more for a heavily tilted portfolio.The pessimistic prediction...
by Hyperborea
Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees who went before me: Does a glidepath really work
Replies: 24
Views: 3227

Re: Retirees who went before me: Does a glidepath really work

There are two possible glidepaths - one before retirement and one after. The common usage of this is to decrease equities before retirement and increase them afterwards. The before retirement glidepath is to mitigate against variability in your retirement date. The after retirement glidepath is to m...
by Hyperborea
Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Decent compensation to move to Bay Area CA?
Replies: 290
Views: 22037

Re: Decent compensation to move to Bay Area CA?

If you would like to discuss Silicon Valley compared to London I would be happy to oblige as I have lived in both. I notice you are comparing the Bay Area and not Silicon Valley which was brought up in the original post. The OP talks about both Bay Area and Silicon Valley (the thread subject refers...
by Hyperborea
Sun Sep 02, 2018 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Decent compensation to move to Bay Area CA?
Replies: 290
Views: 22037

Re: Decent compensation to move to Bay Area CA?

Folks, Bay Area Working Culture -> Lack of work-life balance. A) Do you travel for business during the non-working day? B) Are you expected to work more than 40 hours per week? C) Are you expected to respond to business email, phone, text after office hour? D) Do you carry a pager? Aka, on-call? Kl...
by Hyperborea
Fri Aug 31, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com
Replies: 69
Views: 5762

Re: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com

I think what you have re-discovered is that Monte Carlo simulations produce fatter tails in the distribution of outcomes than have ever occurred in real life. Of course, Michael Kitces has an article for that: https://www.kitces.com/blog/monte-carlo-analysis-risk-fat-tails-vs-safe-withdrawal-rates-...
by Hyperborea
Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I need Term Life Insurance?
Replies: 17
Views: 1529

Re: Do I need Term Life Insurance?

You have $60k in annual expenses and a net worth of $3.5 million. If you died, your family could cash everything out, invest it 60/40 and safely draw 3% annually, which is $105000. That's before accounting for social security or insurance from work. I contend you don't need life insurance. Only if ...
by Hyperborea
Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Decent compensation to move to Bay Area CA?
Replies: 290
Views: 22037

Re: Decent compensation to move to Bay Area CA?

I have a family of 4 and we live in Charlotte area. I make ~ $140k annually (can sacrifice my work life balance and make ~160k) as an IT guy (I'm a kind of tech lead \ architect). We live in a $320k 2400 sq ft 4bd house and are able to save few buck into taxable account (401k maxing out as well). I...
by Hyperborea
Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Decent compensation to move to Bay Area CA?
Replies: 290
Views: 22037

Re: Decent compensation to move to Bay Area CA?

+1 Could not agree more about the lack of culture in Silicon Valley. Doesn't begin to compare to Paris or London. Or Berlin, Munich, Lisbon or any other of a number of cities. The SF Bay Area has the SF Symphony, Ballet, and Opera. Great theater in Berkeley. Two of the very best major universities ...
by Hyperborea
Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Decent compensation to move to Bay Area CA?
Replies: 290
Views: 22037

Re: Decent compensation to move to Bay Area CA?

3. No doubt that earning potential is higher in the Bay Area, but doing some quick googling of data tells me that "normal" people aren't making $350k per year in the Bay Area either. I have no doubt that elite software developers, etc, make that, but looking at Glassdoor, I don't see any senior lev...
by Hyperborea
Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Decent compensation to move to Bay Area CA?
Replies: 290
Views: 22037

Re: Decent compensation to move to Bay Area CA?

3. No doubt that earning potential is higher in the Bay Area, but doing some quick googling of data tells me that "normal" people aren't making $350k per year in the Bay Area either. I have no doubt that elite software developers, etc, make that, but looking at Glassdoor, I don't see any senior lev...
by Hyperborea
Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we afford to buy house in Bay Area?
Replies: 19
Views: 2965

Re: Can we afford to buy house in Bay Area?

2) Housing prices in the Bay Area have been in an uptrend for a while now but have a history of crashing during recessions. Do you anticipate staying in the Bay Area for a long time? Would you be able to sleep at night if you were temporarily upside down on a big mortgage? What I am getting at is a...
by Hyperborea
Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for help building a portfolio that can weather a bear market but can also get us to our goals.
Replies: 20
Views: 1738

Re: Looking for help building a portfolio that can weather a bear market but can also get us to our goals.

If you haven't already done so then make sure you look into the Japanese tax system. Planning for it may change how arrange your assets now. Here are a few links that I've collected for my own move. Official Tax Site in English https://www.nta.go.jp/english/index.htm Tax Guide https://www2.deloitte....
by Hyperborea
Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: U.S. brokerages and retiring abroad
Replies: 47
Views: 5981

Re: U.S. brokerages and retiring abroad

Capital gains are paid in the country where you are a resident when you sell and there is no division of the capital gains over time. So, you would pay capital gains taxes in Canada on the $50 as part of your overall taxes (50% of the gains at your marginal rate). For most people that's where it wo...
by Hyperborea
Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?
Replies: 61
Views: 4162

Re: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?

dknightd wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:12 pm
Darwin wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:01 pm
I'm looking at a 40-year horizon.
How did you arrive at that number? There are so many variables.
The question wasn't directed at me but I use actuarial joint life calculations to 10% for my wife and I. At retirement that was just below 50 years.
by Hyperborea
Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?
Replies: 61
Views: 4162

Re: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?

"Rising equity glide path" is probably a misnomer, and Kitces has stopped calling it that . Recently he has been calling it a a bond tent . The pre-retirement side of a tent is to reduce the retirement date risk of not being able to retire when you want to. If you are willing to be flexible with th...
by Hyperborea
Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?
Replies: 61
Views: 4162

Re: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?

Early Retirement Now has done a few interesting postings on a rising equity glide path as part of his long running withdrawal series. Kitces has also done glide path studies but using Monte Carlo data. Those studies have some contrary results to the historical data studies - possibly because Kitces...
by Hyperborea
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 14139

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

I read a paper once that showed with monte carlo back-testing that, even considering drawdown risk, reverse glidepath won over glidepath most of the time, presumably because a higher proportion of stocks was owned when portfolio balance was larger. …and that right there is why you can get results l...
by Hyperborea
Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 14139

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

Does past performance indicate future results? How did it work in japan There's another thread going on now about Japan - https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=255739 The short answer is fine. For a longer answer read the thread and an article linked in the thread. https://pensionpa...
by Hyperborea
Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?
Replies: 64
Views: 7985

Re: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?

I'm fairly new to investing. Would this situation be alleviated anyway by holding bonds? Correct, that's the point of bonds. When stocks are crashing, bonds go up, historically. Actually, it depends. If you had held bonds instead of Japanese stocks on the way up then the drag on the portfolio would...
by Hyperborea
Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?
Replies: 64
Views: 7985

Re: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?

It would be interesting to do a 30-year spreadsheet starting in 1988 to today, with $1,000 a month (or whatever) placed into the Nikkei. I think you'll find you actually would have been okay. I don't think many people would call it "okay". If you invested $1,000 a month ($12,000 a year, using 2016 ...
by Hyperborea
Mon Aug 06, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?
Replies: 64
Views: 7985

Re: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?

I'm fairly new to investing. Would this situation be alleviated anyway by holding bonds? Correct, that's the point of bonds. When stocks are crashing, bonds go up, historically. Actually, it depends. If you had held bonds instead of Japanese stocks on the way up then the drag on the portfolio would...
by Hyperborea
Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Non-USA Domicile: Thank You IB, Vanguard, and Ishares
Replies: 32
Views: 3873

Re: Non-USA Domicile: Thank You IB, Vanguard, and Ishares

If I buy VWRD from the LSE my dividend taxes are: ... If I buy a FTSE all world ETF ( TedSwippet note: perhaps VWRD also? ) on the Singapore or HK exchange. ??????? Perhaps I am missing something, but assuming that the fund domicile isn't Singapore or HK but is still Ireland then I cannot see a dif...
by Hyperborea
Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?
Replies: 64
Views: 7985

Re: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?

There have been a few discussion on this already and a few of the main take aways from those are: Japan had a very low inflation over the years since the end of the bubble. There have been quite a number of years in that period with deflation. A Japanese investor who retired at the moment of the bub...
by Hyperborea
Sat Aug 04, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Levels of Wealth
Replies: 125
Views: 12138

Re: 3 Levels of Wealth

As I said above, the point of not caring differs from person to person and for most people it changes by wealth. Hyperborea, Then, you should understand that it does not apply to everybody. And, Bogleheads are not most people and does not behave like average people in many cases. Hence, it is more ...
by Hyperborea
Sat Aug 04, 2018 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Levels of Wealth
Replies: 125
Views: 12138

Re: 3 Levels of Wealth

I didn't go over that example of the water. A fairly low price was given. What if that bottle of water was $20? Or $100? Do you still buy? If not, then you DO care what the price was. There's a difference between accepting a higher price and not caring with the price is. Circumstances always matter...
by Hyperborea
Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Levels of Wealth
Replies: 125
Views: 12138

Re: 3 Levels of Wealth

I didn't go over that example of the water. A fairly low price was given. What if that bottle of water was $20? Or $100? Do you still buy? If not, then you DO care what the price was. There's a difference between accepting a higher price and not caring with the price is. Circumstances always matter...
by Hyperborea
Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Levels of Wealth
Replies: 125
Views: 12138

Re: 3 Levels of Wealth

There's a difference between not caring and making informed decisions. When I am at the store grocery, every decision is weighed carefully. Some were weighed on a global basis. For instance, I decided that I wanted have a toasted bagel a few times each week. After trying some alternatives, I made t...