Search found 655 matches

by Hyperborea
Mon Jul 16, 2018 4:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 169
Views: 9973

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

Married couples would get higher income in retirement from SPIAs if each bought a single life SPIA for $500,000 rather than buying a joint life SPIA for $1M. Is that only because you are allocating the same dollars to two SPIAs where one has a much shorter expected duration than the joint expectanc...
by Hyperborea
Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Balanced Funds and Sequence of Return Risk
Replies: 50
Views: 2973

Re: Balanced Funds and Sequence of Return Risk

The time to worry about sequence of return risks is in the early years of your retirement. If you haven't had bad returns during the first 5-10 years then with a "standard" 3.5/4% WR your portfolio will have grown larger. Unless you then up the withdrawal amount you have a large buffer to cover any ...
by Hyperborea
Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FireCalc: How big a grain of salt?
Replies: 58
Views: 4440

Re: FireCalc: How big a grain of salt?

The whole point of the Montecarlo simulations in Firecalc is use the best and worst of past time periods (and everything in between), so short of an extinction-level event (major asteroid strike, etc), if the bottom-most lines on the spaghetti graph are well above zero then you are as well covered ...
by Hyperborea
Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FireCalc: How big a grain of salt?
Replies: 58
Views: 4440

Re: FireCalc: How big a grain of salt?

One of the things I used to do in Firecalc to test my retirement plans was to do some sensitivity analysis. So, push your expenses a little, up the expense ratio, add an extra expense or make a planned future expense a bit bigger, reduce your pension or SS amounts, and see how likely it was to fail....
by Hyperborea
Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to determine weights within portfolio
Replies: 29
Views: 1413

Re: How to determine weights within portfolio

I see your image just fine. Maybe it's an ad-blocker issue. Note that VEA and IEMG are not complementary funds because they both hold South Korean stocks. VWO is the complement to VEA, as IDEV is to IEMG. Thanks. You sure know your ETFs :happy It's the difference in the way that the MSCI vs FTSE in...
by Hyperborea
Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Take 5% of Folio age 75 Onward?
Replies: 14
Views: 1656

Re: Take 5% of Folio age 75 Onward?

Most of the time 3.5/4% is far too conservative for 30 years. For shorter times it's even more conservative. If you look at the graph of the withdrawal rates that would have survived for 30 years over time you'll see that for the majority of the historical data it was over 5%. Much more likely to b...
by Hyperborea
Sun Jul 15, 2018 11:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Take 5% of Folio age 75 Onward?
Replies: 14
Views: 1656

Re: Take 5% of Folio age 75 Onward?

Most of the time 3.5/4% is far too conservative for 30 years. For shorter times it's even more conservative. If you look at the graph of the withdrawal rates that would have survived for 30 years over time you'll see that for the majority of the historical data it was over 5%. Much more likely to be...
by Hyperborea
Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to determine weights within portfolio
Replies: 29
Views: 1413

Re: How to determine weights within portfolio

so it's only a matter of the individual weights within the 7 stock asset classes Unless you want to over/under weight one of the equity sub-classes then just buy either a total world index or the US total market + Total International. The rough breakdown of the US:Total International is about 50:50...
by Hyperborea
Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough
Replies: 112
Views: 13186

Re: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough

Thanks. I will need luck. I ignore inflation but build in a buffer of the end amount. I want to have $600,000 by age 50, which will get me a 4% SWR of $24,000 or $2,000/month. With no mortgage (I also have to have the mortgage paid off before retirement), I should be able to get our expenses way un...
by Hyperborea
Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to determine weights within portfolio
Replies: 29
Views: 1413

Re: How to determine weights within portfolio

To add to the above, the default position seems to be the market weight. Start there and for every deviation from that point have a good reason that you understand and believe in. If you don't then when the returns for one piece of the allocation does poorly you will be tempted to sell it.
by Hyperborea
Sat Jul 14, 2018 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz
Replies: 85
Views: 6320

Re: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz

You are simply trading off one set of risks for another. If stocks don't recover within 10 years you are stuck with an all equity portfolio that has shrunk, which is a worse situation than the situation the buckets have avoided. Are you opposed to the notion of a rising equity glidepath, as suggest...
by Hyperborea
Sat Jul 14, 2018 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up
Replies: 32
Views: 2419

Re: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up

In the chart, these monthly returns are 36-month rolling averages, to smooth the data and make it comprehensible. I'm puzzled by the reasoning behind the averaging, if what you're focusing on is the effect of disasters. Compound returns are what really matter. Average returns can differ significant...
by Hyperborea
Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up
Replies: 32
Views: 2419

Re: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up

I'm struck by how similar the lines are in general, varying primarily in degree. Given some of the near-religious expounding by proponents on both sides of the spectrum, I would expect to see much greater differences. The issue is that the measurement by the OP is in real monthly returns. Even a fr...
by Hyperborea
Sat Jul 14, 2018 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz
Replies: 85
Views: 6320

Re: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz

If you rebalance every year, you are NOT using a bucket strategy, at least not as it was envisioned. Deferring rebalancing for a few years during bear markets is the whole point of a BS. As I noted above, when I ran BS vs rebalancing model for the 2000-17 period, the BS provided a little more benef...
by Hyperborea
Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8632

Re: "Bonds are for Safety" ?

It's only a "real loss" if you sell. If you buy and hold, and ride out the rough patches, and continue to invest, you are likely to come out ahead. I'm not going to lose sleep over a year or two or even three of paper losses on my TBM holdings. Waiting and holding doesn't work so well if you're ret...
by Hyperborea
Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Masterbath Remodel - Tub or No Tub ?
Replies: 57
Views: 3239

Re: Masterbath Remodel - Tub or No Tub ?

Thanks again for the additional feedback. We are more confident in the NO TUB decision for our master bath. One additional comment -- we have a very high ceiling in master bath so the shower would not be enclosed on top. For those that put in walk-in showers / wet areas. Are there any must have's, ...
by Hyperborea
Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Masterbath Remodel - Tub or No Tub ?
Replies: 57
Views: 3239

Re: Masterbath Remodel - Tub or No Tub ?

If you are going to go down to the studs then plan for grab bars in the shower and around the toilet. You don't have to put them in now but put in the blocking to support them and take photos and measurements of their location. I would also think about putting a bench in the shower if you are making...
by Hyperborea
Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Options after COBRA ends? Cal-COBRA or Guaranteed Issue or ?
Replies: 6
Views: 689

Re: Options after COBRA ends? Cal-COBRA or Guaranteed Issue or ?

Of course Cal-COBRA applies to this large employer, as it applies (though in different ways) to small (2 to 19 employees) and large (over 20 employees) California employers alike. I used Cal-COBRA myself after leaving my large SoCal employer. See this and contact your HR department: https://www.dmh...
by Hyperborea
Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Options after COBRA ends? Cal-COBRA or Guaranteed Issue or ?
Replies: 6
Views: 689

Re: Options after COBRA ends? Cal-COBRA or Guaranteed Issue or ?

- I do not know whether Cal-COBRA (extension of current COBRA by up to 18 months) would apply because her ex-employer is large. Sorry to hear of the situation you are going through. You need to speak to your wife's benefits/HR people and find out if Cal-COBRA is an option. If the company plan that ...
by Hyperborea
Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio for expat [Australian ex-pat]
Replies: 12
Views: 432

Re: Portfolio for expat [Australian ex-pat]

This also raises questions about whether my Australian tax free pension / superannuation would also now be caught up in the French exit tax if I stay here for more than 6 years - quite possibly it would? I'll have to look at this more now. You'll need to look into the France-Australia tax treaties ...
by Hyperborea
Sun Jul 08, 2018 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio for expat [Australian ex-pat]
Replies: 12
Views: 432

Re: Portfolio for expat [Australian ex-pat]

I understand I might need to fully liquidate then re-buy my portfolio if I'm moving to a new tax domicile. Wouldnt this be a taxable event that would make me liable for all the capital gains up until that point? So, if I'm moving from say France to Singapore and I liquidate and rebuy my portfolio, ...
by Hyperborea
Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio for expat [Australian ex-pat]
Replies: 12
Views: 432

Re: Portfolio for expat [Australian ex-pat]

If you are planning to move countries then I would strongly suggest doing some research on the tax laws of all the countries you plan to reside in. It will help guide you in making the choice in how and what to invest in now. You won't get it perfectly right but hopefully you can avoid the big mista...
by Hyperborea
Fri Jul 06, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing within US total stock/international total stock
Replies: 6
Views: 578

Re: Rebalancing within US total stock/international total stock

My plan for rebalancing during my accumulation time was to never sell in taxable accounts. I only rebalanced by selling inside the tax deferred accounts and using new contributions. Depending on the size of tax deferred to taxable that may mean that you don't fully rebalance one year. That's fine ju...
by Hyperborea
Thu Jul 05, 2018 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11059

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

Why not? I have a distaste for refutations with no explanation (I don't mean this personally towards you, and I don't take it personally either). It's not much different than saying that a smaller salary is a benefit from a tax perspective. That's not a fair comparison. We're talking about a smalle...
by Hyperborea
Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11059

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

In addition, a smaller SS benefit may be preferable from a tax perspective (e.g. place one in a lower bracket). Umm, no. This practically never makes sense, sorry... Why not? I have a distaste for refutations with no explanation (I don't mean this personally towards you, and I don't take it persona...
by Hyperborea
Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11059

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

On the other hand, if my retirement was being funded with a large pension, and i had a smaller portfolio, then I might be inclined to keep the portfolio intact rather than spending a chunk of it to buy yet another income stream. In addition, a smaller SS benefit may be preferable from a tax perspec...
by Hyperborea
Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11059

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

Right guys, but I would KNOW from age 70 on, the effective return of the larger SS is at best the inflation rate. I'd like to think I can make age 90, so by going with the larger SS via deferral, which I would make happen by "buying" the larger SS with my portfolio, then I lock in inflation only re...
by Hyperborea
Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11059

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

OK so let's use those numbers as an example. If i have just $1800/month cause i took it at 62, I also have $172,800 ($1800x12 months x 8 years) i invested in a 60% portfolio at 62 cause I didn't "buy" the SS deferral. Let's say I only made 5% on the 172,800 from age 62 to 70. That's $257,573 at yea...
by Hyperborea
Sat Jun 30, 2018 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: U.S. brokerages and retiring abroad
Replies: 44
Views: 4989

Re: U.S. brokerages and retiring abroad

I'm wondering how the taxes on capital gains would work. Say you buy a $100 ETF while in the US. Then it appreciates to $130. Then you move to Canada. Then it appreciates to $150. Then you liquidate... What taxes would you owe? I'm currently trying to figure that out. I don't mean to hijack your th...
by Hyperborea
Fri Jun 29, 2018 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund
Replies: 135
Views: 8705

Re: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund

My love of dividends comes from a book, "The Dividend Growth Machine" by Nathan Winklepleck who said that a dividend growth strategy had the following advantages: 5) Little chance of losing money. If a dividend growth portfolio starts with a dividend yield of 3% and grows by 6% per year, it has lit...
by Hyperborea
Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keeping up with inflation
Replies: 24
Views: 1855

Re: Keeping up with inflation

If it's for the emergency fund, then as has been said above, keep it reasonably liquid. You aren't looking to keep up with inflation but to have the money stay at some benchmark for your life. If that $30K is 3/6/12 months of living costs then you want that money to stay at that level. If your livin...
by Hyperborea
Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Family dynamics/in laws/am I being petty?
Replies: 143
Views: 7119

Re: Family dynamics/in laws/am I being petty?

You said that you wanted to treat your MIL+FIL. Well, if you look at in a different light then paying 50/50 with your SIL means that you paid for yourself, your wife, and your MIL+FIL. Your SIL paid for her, her husband, and their kids. Not a bad outcome since that was what you wanted to do. It does...
by Hyperborea
Sun Jun 24, 2018 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Starting out, in Japan
Replies: 34
Views: 3336

Re: Starting out, in Japan

Great comments and advice guys, thanks. I am aware that N1 probably isn't fluency, so I will be studying for fluency and not N1, but doing it part time so giving myself around 5 years of consistent study. I've read those discussions of the "speed" learners and discount most of it. There are likely ...
by Hyperborea
Sun Jun 24, 2018 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Double Digits years of living expenses in Fixed Income
Replies: 29
Views: 2372

Re: Double Digits years of living expenses in Fixed Income

I've got about 12 or so years in fixed income at my current somewhat conservative spending rate and I'm early 50's and retired. However, it's not a fixed part of the portfolio. I will be spending it down by only withdrawing from it and leaving the rest of the portfolio to grow. I will stop spending ...
by Hyperborea
Sun Jun 24, 2018 8:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retire at 50: Should I?
Replies: 93
Views: 12216

Re: Retire at 50: Should I?

What do you think is going to happen in the next to years that is going to provide clarity going forward? <snip> It will not be cheap, but I am optimistic that there will be viable options available to us, as long as we stay flexible. ACA is in danger of being driven into destruction. It's not like...
by Hyperborea
Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retire at 50: Should I?
Replies: 93
Views: 12216

Re: Retire at 50: Should I?

1. If--as the source I cited contends the Administration is urging--ACA's mandated coverage for pre-existing conditions ends, that may apply to employer coverage as well as individual marketplace coverage. In other words, the "go get a job" alternative only works if the new employer's insurer accep...
by Hyperborea
Mon May 14, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New(ish) attending physicians in the Bay Area: Housing
Replies: 150
Views: 12709

Re: New(ish) attending physicians in the Bay Area: Housing

This has crossed my mind too although the counter is that at least for now, our cash flow is very healthy renting and while that may one day eventually change, we’ll be well prepared to buy or move at that point (saving maybe 200k/year currently). Much of that annual savings is wiped out by the ann...
by Hyperborea
Mon May 14, 2018 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 10804

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

wrongfunds wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 11:02 am
Anything else am I missing?
Zombie apocalypse, alien invasion, takeover by the Shriner's in midget cars, any of which means we need a bunker, gold, and canned beans.
by Hyperborea
Sun May 13, 2018 10:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Sumitomo Tires
Replies: 8
Views: 1231

Re: Sumitomo Tires

I don't know about those specific tires but Sumitomo HTR Z III have been a well known "secret" in the sports car community for a long time. I went through 2 and a half sets over a decade on my sports car. Those are max performance summer tires so a bit soft and the wear isn't the same as a family se...
by Hyperborea
Sun May 13, 2018 10:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Sapphire, CapOne Venture, United Explorer, what's next?
Replies: 3
Views: 591

Re: Sapphire, CapOne Venture, United Explorer, what's next?

Chase IHG card for hotel nights. There were 80K points for $3K spend around. That will give you a variable number of hotel nights depending on the hotel in the IHG chain that you stay at. $49 / year for the card waived for the first year. Every year on your anniversary you get one free night - used ...
by Hyperborea
Sun May 13, 2018 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Approach to diversity out of a single stock (purchased through ESPP)
Replies: 52
Views: 3655

Re: Approach to diversity out of a single stock (purchased through ESPP)

Yes, filing a W4 with your payroll office. That 110% is of actually taxes paid (total tax on the 1040) and not on taxes withheld in the previous year. Remember that there might be a lead time before the W4 changes take effect. This can be important in calculating how much to withhold but more so in...
by Hyperborea
Sun May 13, 2018 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Approach to diversity out of a single stock (purchased through ESPP)
Replies: 52
Views: 3655

Re: Approach to diversity out of a single stock (purchased through ESPP)

Ok. For federal taxes it means - I just need to make sure that I pay 110% of 2017 taxes, I paid 29K in federal taxes last year (have to get a refund of around 4K) - which means if I can ensure that my company is holding roughly 32K for the entire year - then I am safe, right? Assuming I am almost a...
by Hyperborea
Sat May 12, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Online/cloud backup or file storage?
Replies: 38
Views: 2472

Re: Online/cloud backup or file storage?

I'll second (third?) the suggestion to not use the library computer for logging into important accounts. The only way that I'd use the library computers for important stuff is if I was in such dire straights that I had no other choice - e.g. I was homeless. Otherwise use it to read the online newspa...
by Hyperborea
Sat May 12, 2018 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Approach to diversity out of a single stock (purchased through ESPP)
Replies: 52
Views: 3655

Re: Approach to diversity out of a single stock (purchased through ESPP)

You need to check if you are in "safe harbour" limits. If you meet certain limits of tax paid then you don't have to prepay to avoid a penalty. Federal and California safe harbour limits are somewhat different so you need to check both. Federal is 100% or 110% (income $150K+) of last year's taxes o...
by Hyperborea
Sat May 12, 2018 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Approach to diversity out of a single stock (purchased through ESPP)
Replies: 52
Views: 3655

Re: Approach to diversity out of a single stock (purchased through ESPP)

Hi Guys, I just saw sold the stocks worth 122K with 105K as capital gains. I think I need to pay Advance Tax to the IRS before the quarter ends i.e. 15th June, is that right? Do I pay the entire tax in one chunk or divided into quarters? Should I take help from a tax advisor for this or just put in...
by Hyperborea
Fri May 11, 2018 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 22023

Re: Why International again?

rudeboy, Look, I don't even know what your chart is comparing. How is the global portfolio constructed? Is it equally-weighted by country/region, or equally-weighted by market caps? U.S. small caps returned much more than the S&P500 (have a look at the chart below), so adding small caps to the U.S....
by Hyperborea
Thu May 10, 2018 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 22023

Re: Why International again?

rudeboy, Look, I don't even know what your chart is comparing. How is the global portfolio constructed? Is it equally-weighted by country/region, or equally-weighted by market caps? U.S. small caps returned much more than the S&P500 (have a look at the chart below), so adding small caps to the U.S....
by Hyperborea
Thu May 10, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Portfolio?
Replies: 148
Views: 17209

Re: 100% Stock Portfolio?

C'mon now! You know the general consensus amongst bogleheads is to not consider your emergency fund/cash reserve as apart of your portfolio. this is not the general consensus. I consider all my investible assets as a whole. That means my taxable, my 401K, IRAs, HSA, bank accounts, cash on hand (etc...
by Hyperborea
Wed May 09, 2018 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 22023

Re: Why International again?

Why all this talk about US total market? It's shockingly obvious that US small cap value has done far better. Just over the last 19 years NAESX (Vanguard Small Cap Value) has returned almost double that of VTSMX (Vanguard Total US). It's blindingly obvious which one of those one should have been inv...
by Hyperborea
Wed May 09, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Percentage CASH are you?
Replies: 168
Views: 17709

Re: What Percentage CASH are you?

Cash has never been set at a percentage of the portfolio. It's been set as a fixed amount based on need. So, it can be calculated as a percentage of the total portfolio but that's pretty much meaningless. At this point in time, recently retired and just sold my house to become somewhat nomadic, I've...