Search found 1254 matches

by Always passive
Fri Mar 22, 2024 4:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Managed Futures Strategy ETF DBMF
Replies: 13
Views: 1242

Re: Managed Futures Strategy ETF DBMF

Very informative, thank you.
On KLML, I only found data from 2021, when the ETF seems to have its start. Where did you find data from the late 1980s?
by Always passive
Fri Mar 22, 2024 4:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Managed Futures Strategy ETF DBMF
Replies: 13
Views: 1242

Re: Managed Futures Strategy ETF DBMF

Very informative, thank you.
On KLML, I only found data from 2021, when the ETF seems to have its start. Where did you find data from the late 1980s?
by Always passive
Sat Mar 16, 2024 1:15 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Gold As An Emergency Fund In A Country With Insane Inflation
Replies: 32
Views: 4749

Re: Gold As An Emergency Fund In A Country With Insane Inflation

seajay wrote: Fri Mar 15, 2024 8:27 pm
Always passive wrote: Fri Mar 15, 2024 3:37 am As a child I lived in Chile from parents that survived WWII. My father would always tell us that the money must not be kept in the place you live. When Allende took office and my family left, I realized the significance of his wise idea.
By that do you mean another country? Or just not keeping money in your home?
We lived in Chile and most of the family savings were in c$ in Canada.
by Always passive
Fri Mar 15, 2024 3:37 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Gold As An Emergency Fund In A Country With Insane Inflation
Replies: 32
Views: 4749

Re: Gold As An Emergency Fund In A Country With Insane Inflation

As a child I lived in Chile from parents that survived WWII. My father would always tell us that the money must not be kept in the place you live. When Allende took office and my family left, I realized the significance of his wise idea.
by Always passive
Sat Mar 09, 2024 3:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: UBS Won't Issue a Corrected 1099
Replies: 14
Views: 1430

Re: UBS Won't Issue a Corrected 1099

So...my MIL took a chunk of money out of an IRA in mid-October 2023. We realized it over Thanksgiving weekend, and arranged for her to re-deposit the funds at UBS within the 60 day window. UBS has now issued a 1099-R, showing the withdrawal - and with the ENTIRE amount in the taxable box! Which triggers a 6-figure tax bill. We called to discuss issuing a corrected 1099-R, and the rep said that they would not issue a corrected 1099; instead, they will mail my MIL the account statements, showing the withdrawal, and the re-deposit, within the 60 day window. This seems ridiculous to me - how can they blithely send out a tax document so blatantly wrong? Don't they have an obligation to correct it? Has anyone every had this situation, and DIDN'T...
by Always passive
Sat Mar 09, 2024 3:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: UBS Won't Issue a Corrected 1099
Replies: 14
Views: 1430

Re: UBS Won't Issue a Corrected 1099

So...my MIL took a chunk of money out of an IRA in mid-October 2023. We realized it over Thanksgiving weekend, and arranged for her to re-deposit the funds at UBS within the 60 day window. UBS has now issued a 1099-R, showing the withdrawal - and with the ENTIRE amount in the taxable box! Which triggers a 6-figure tax bill. We called to discuss issuing a corrected 1099-R, and the rep said that they would not issue a corrected 1099; instead, they will mail my MIL the account statements, showing the withdrawal, and the re-deposit, within the 60 day window. This seems ridiculous to me - how can they blithely send out a tax document so blatantly wrong? Don't they have an obligation to correct it? Has anyone every had this situation, and DIDN'T...
by Always passive
Mon Mar 04, 2024 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster
Replies: 175
Views: 17697

Re: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster

EM was a bet that did not pay off because investors did not understand that rule of law underpins all valuations and the bulk of EM are not rule of law countries. The investable world is the Anglosphere, western Europe, Israel in the middle east, Japan, Korea and a few others. Most of the rest of the world is not investable since you are at risk that your assets will be confiscated. Though of course you can be lucky if you get in and out at the right times. Where did you get the facts. You will be surprised by which countries have a good and decent rule of law. The USA is not exactly on top. See.. https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/wb_ruleoflaw/ Do you think that theglobaleconomy.com is really a reputable source? Really? There is a ...
by Always passive
Mon Mar 04, 2024 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster
Replies: 175
Views: 17697

Re: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster

Jack56 wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2024 3:04 pm EM was a bet that did not pay off because investors did not understand that rule of law underpins all valuations and the bulk of EM are not rule of law countries. The investable world is the Anglosphere, western Europe, Israel in the middle east, Japan, Korea and a few others. Most of the rest of the world is not investable since you are at risk that your assets will be confiscated. Though of course you can be lucky if you get in and out at the right times.
Where did you get the facts. You will be surprised by which countries have a good and decent rule of law. The USA is not exactly on top. See..
https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/wb_ruleoflaw/
by Always passive
Sun Mar 03, 2024 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster
Replies: 175
Views: 17697

Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster

Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster for the past 30 years. Bonds have shined due to USD strength. See article in M*..
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/when ... ng-markets

I have owned a small % but often want to get rid of this asset class. Comments?
by Always passive
Tue Feb 27, 2024 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS = 2.2% real!
Replies: 26
Views: 4776

Re: 30 yr TIPS = 2.2% real!

Equities are much riskier than TIPS - TIPS have a known real cash flow and equities do not. Why take a risk you don't have to? It depends how you define risk. The common definition is you retirement balance going down and causing you to freak out. Bernstein's Shakespeare. On the other hand, if you define it in terms of real world consequences, like running out of money in retirement, bonds can be riskier than stocks. Basically, bonds don't grow enough over time, so at retirement if you get a LMP of TIPS, you'll see that you actually don't have enough money to fund your full retirement. In this case, bonds give a 100% chance of running out of money in retirement. Put another way, if you have enough money for a liability matching portfolio o...
by Always passive
Sun Feb 25, 2024 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to invest better with bonds
Replies: 3
Views: 791

How to invest better with bonds

Would anyone care to comment on this recent work by Morningstar?

https://www.morningstar.com/bonds/how-i ... with-bonds
by Always passive
Thu Feb 22, 2024 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS = 2.2% real!
Replies: 26
Views: 4776

30 yr TIPS = 2.2% real!

Why hold anything riskier if the goal is peaceful retirement?

“30-year TIPS auction gets real yield of 2.20%, highest in 14 years”
by Always passive
Wed Feb 14, 2024 8:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Managed Futures Strategy ETF DBMF
Replies: 13
Views: 1242

Re: Managed Futures Strategy ETF DBMF

Thank you. The graph tells it all
by Always passive
Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Managed Futures Strategy ETF DBMF
Replies: 13
Views: 1242

Managed Futures Strategy ETF DBMF

Question: does a small percent of Managed Futures Strategy, like DBMF, that has a negative correlation to equities and fixed income fit in a portfolio?
by Always passive
Sun Dec 31, 2023 6:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AVUV
Replies: 43
Views: 4745

Re: AVUV

Morik wrote: Sun Dec 31, 2023 4:07 am I personally 100% factor tilt (across multiple factors, not just small value), but for the majority of investors I'd recommend to just use total world stock market indices. Also reasonable to split out domestic from international for foreign tax credit in taxable accounts. Tax rules prevent claiming the credit if the ETF the foreign income is from also holds a bunch of domestic (I think the threshold is 50% domestic, but don't quote me on that), so using just VT is less tax efficient in taxable accounts.
By tilting do you see any improvement relative to total market?
by Always passive
Sun Dec 31, 2023 12:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AVUV
Replies: 43
Views: 4745

Re: AVUV

Valuations are not short term indicators. So even when an article states how you should position your portfolio for a particular year, it does not mean actively changing the portfolio every year. What does it mean? It means certain sectors of the market are undervalued each year, so positioning one’s portfolio by tilting to undervalued areas may enhance returns over the long run. These undervalued areas may change each year so how you should position a portfolio alludes to how to tilt a portfolio away from concentrating in overvalued sectors. It doesn’t mean change the portfolio to undervalued sectors and expect outperformance the following year. It does not mean every undervalued sector will outperform in the following year so you should ...
by Always passive
Sat Dec 30, 2023 11:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AVUV
Replies: 43
Views: 4745

Re: AVUV

Valuations are not short term indicators. So even when an article states how you should position your portfolio for a particular year, it does not mean actively changing the portfolio every year. What does it mean? It means certain sectors of the market are undervalued each year, so positioning one’s portfolio by tilting to undervalued areas may enhance returns over the long run. These undervalued areas may change each year so how you should position a portfolio alludes to how to tilt a portfolio away from concentrating in overvalued sectors. It doesn’t mean change the portfolio to undervalued sectors and expect outperformance the following year. It does not mean every undervalued sector will outperform in the following year so you should ...
by Always passive
Sat Dec 30, 2023 8:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AVUV
Replies: 43
Views: 4745

Re: AVUV

Nicolas wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 8:29 am Your plan to purchase AVUV seems to be in conflict with your username, :D as it’s an active ETF.
You are right. Missed that
by Always passive
Sat Dec 30, 2023 8:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AVUV
Replies: 43
Views: 4745

Re: AVUV

Nicolas wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 8:29 am Your plan to purchase AVUV seems to be in conflict with your username, :D as it’s an active ETF.
You are right. Missed that
by Always passive
Sat Dec 30, 2023 7:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AVUV
Replies: 43
Views: 4745

Re: AVUV

Very good point. I picked it because M* said so Seriously, it would help me understand things better if you could try to pick out exactly where "M* said so." https://www.morningstar.com/markets/2024-market-outlook-what-return-normal-means-stocks Good. It was specifically a 2024 "Market Outlook" article by one David Sekera, who is "chief U.S. market strategist for Morningstar." It is talking about "How Should Investors Position Themselves in 2024?" So the mindset here is market timing, or at least tactical asset allocation, in which we tinker with our portfolio every year. I hope I don't need to say it, but I will: that is not the the Bogleheads investment philosophy . So I assume you are taking the v...
by Always passive
Sat Dec 30, 2023 7:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AVUV
Replies: 43
Views: 4745

Re: AVUV

I have some money available and consider investing in a U.S. small cap value (AVUV). The addition would fall within my IPS, and would be <10% of my equity portfolio. But I have never invested in SCV, always in total markets, which are predominant large caps. Does it make sense for further diversification ? Let's take your question literally. It might make sense but it depends on your goal. What is your goal? Diversification for the sake of diversification? In that case, it would not make sense. Is your goal to reduce your exposure to the large cap / growth parts of the market because that would help you stick with your investment choices? Then buying some AVUV or VBR might make sense. But it seems you've stuck with Total Stock Market thus ...
by Always passive
Sat Dec 30, 2023 7:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AVUV
Replies: 43
Views: 4745

Re: AVUV

nisiprius wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 7:04 am
Always passive wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 6:57 amVery good point. I picked it because M* said so
Seriously, it would help me understand things better if you could try to pick out exactly where "M* said so." I assume it was an article and you might be able to link to it. I would like to understand who it was, and, please, exactly what they said.

That is, did they say "Retirement savers ought to add a small-cap value fund to their portfolio in order to increase diversification?" Or did they just say "AVUV is a good small-cap value fund?"
https://www.morningstar.com/markets/202 ... ans-stocks
by Always passive
Sat Dec 30, 2023 6:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AVUV
Replies: 43
Views: 4745

Re: AVUV

I have some money available and consider investing in a U.S. small cap value (AVUV). The addition would fall within my IPS, and would be <10% of my equity portfolio. But I have never invested in SCV, always in total markets, which are predominant large caps. Does it make sense for further diversification ? There's no definitive answer here as to whether small-cap value increases diversification or not when added to total market. Some could argue that small value is an additional risk factor(s) and diversifying across different risk factors outside of the "market" would increase diversification. Others could argue that these are not independent risk factors but the result of data mining, etc. No one knows the correct answer - only...
by Always passive
Sat Dec 30, 2023 4:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AVUV
Replies: 43
Views: 4745

AVUV

I have some money available and consider investing in a U.S. small cap value (AVUV). The addition would fall within my IPS, and would be <10% of my equity portfolio. But I have never invested in SCV, always in total markets, which are predominant large caps. Does it make sense for further diversification ?
by Always passive
Tue Nov 14, 2023 8:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF JAAA ?
Replies: 4
Views: 975

Re: Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF JAAA ?

kaseg wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 12:23 am No.

These are fairly complicated products that take below investment grade debt and package them up into tranches, so they can market the top tranches as "low risk". Given that it only yields 1% or so more than ultra short investment grade corporate bonds, it doesnt even seem like the additional risk is being priced particularly attractively.
Thank you. In addition I think that “liquidity” maybe an issue when you need fixed income the most
by Always passive
Mon Nov 13, 2023 11:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF JAAA ?
Replies: 4
Views: 975

Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF JAAA ?

Would you invest in this fund?

Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF JAAA

Ultra short term
High yield
Low risk
Investment grade
by Always passive
Thu Nov 02, 2023 12:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: iShares iBonds 2033 Term TIPS ETF - advantages over TIPS
Replies: 31
Views: 3937

Re: iShares iBonds 2033 Term TIPS ETF - advantages over TIPS

toddthebod wrote: Thu Nov 02, 2023 11:52 am
Always passive wrote: Thu Nov 02, 2023 11:14 am How does iShares calculate the YTM on these TIPS ETFs?? There is a number in each ETF
It's a weighted average of the YTMs of the bonds they hold.
But no one knows the inflation factor
by Always passive
Thu Nov 02, 2023 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: iShares iBonds 2033 Term TIPS ETF - advantages over TIPS
Replies: 31
Views: 3937

Re: iShares iBonds 2033 Term TIPS ETF - advantages over TIPS

How does iShares calculate the YTM on these TIPS ETFs?? There is a number in each ETF
by Always passive
Tue Oct 31, 2023 3:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Friend's Portfolio - Can he make it?
Replies: 52
Views: 7040

Re: Friend's Portfolio - Can he make it?

Can this friend make it?? Please Comments? His age 70; Her age 75; No children Portfolio Present Size: $2.4m Allocation: Short Term Bonds 32% Intermediate Term bonds 22% US Stocks 32% Foreign Stocks 14% Gold 10% Bonds: All in indexes. Stocks: DFA funds bias toward mid/small cap value Annual need from Portfolio $120-140k The more I think about your question, the more I believe no-one can give very useful input without more understanding of what their money is being spent on, what is the survivor benefit on the pension (50%, 100%, etc), what are their legacy goals, do they have a paid off house etc. We can only tell you that they are pulling a somewhat high percentage from the portfolio, but they are probably not looking at a full 30 years g...
by Always passive
Mon Oct 30, 2023 1:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Friend's Portfolio - Can he make it?
Replies: 52
Views: 7040

Re: Friend's Portfolio - Can he make it?

OP, They will make it because they will cut spending when they have to. And, there is enough money in social security and pension for them to survive on. KlangFool Agree. They are over 70. Probably lived a great life on $200k+ a year. I don’t see them spending more, and likely will spend less. I’d love more thought on this board about the discretionary spending curve/smile for high net worth individuals. My gut tells me after age 70, HNW folks slow down and likely don’t spend more than they did in their 50s or 60s while raising families. Prove me wrong ;) I guess that my friend does not spend that much on themselves but as I know him , he may be contributing a good chunk of money to his religious organization and others. I have seen him do...
by Always passive
Sun Oct 29, 2023 11:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Friend's Portfolio - Can he make it?
Replies: 52
Views: 7040

Re: Friend's Portfolio - Can he make it?

wwhan wrote: Sun Oct 29, 2023 10:47 pm It depends on long they will live.

The gold is not going to produce income.

Is the house paid off and what are the taxes?
No mortgage. Taxes included in the annual needs
by Always passive
Sun Oct 29, 2023 3:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Friend's Portfolio - Can he make it?
Replies: 52
Views: 7040

Re: Friend's Portfolio - Can he make it?

Jeepguy wrote: Sun Oct 29, 2023 3:10 pm At 70 and 75, I would suggest a withdrawal rate in excess of 4% could be maintained. Are we to assume both are still working? And yes it would be safer to reduce spending also.
They are not working. She stopped a few years ago and he just sold his share of a private business.
by Always passive
Sun Oct 29, 2023 2:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Friend's Portfolio - Can he make it?
Replies: 52
Views: 7040

Re: Friend's Portfolio - Can he make it?

KlingKlang wrote: Sun Oct 29, 2023 2:47 pm The percentages add up to 110%.

They are spending 5.0 to 5.8% of portfolio assets annually. Any additional income from pensions and social security?
Sorry, US equities 22%

They spend 220-240k/year and receive 100k/year in SS plus pensions inflation adjusted
by Always passive
Sun Oct 29, 2023 2:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Friend's Portfolio - Can he make it?
Replies: 52
Views: 7040

Friend's Portfolio - Can he make it?

Can this friend make it?? Please Comments?

His age 70; Her age 75; No children
Portfolio
Present Size: $2.4m
Allocation:
Short Term Bonds 32%
Intermediate Term bonds 22%
US Stocks 32%
Foreign Stocks 14%
Gold 10%

Bonds:
All in indexes.
Stocks:
DFA funds bias toward mid/small cap value

Annual need from Portfolio $120-140k
by Always passive
Sat Oct 28, 2023 8:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Short term High yield bonds
Replies: 28
Views: 2295

Re: Short term High yield bonds

I recommend that you read the prospectus before investing. First, its not solely a high yield bond ETF. There are both investment grade bonds and below-investment grade bonds in the portfolio. Second, the ratio of the two in the last 1.5 years of the term depends on a formula which I find difficult to use to predict the outcome. Third, during the first six months of 2024, the fund reinvests proceeds into bonds it already owns, becoming more concentrated in the process. Then, in the last six months of the year, proceeds are held in cash bearing NO interest (emphasis mine). I believe you are incorrect when you state that YTM is 8% 8% is the SEC 30 day yield, not a yield to maturity. I would presume that yield will fall in the last six months...
by Always passive
Sat Oct 28, 2023 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Short term High yield bonds
Replies: 28
Views: 2295

Re: Short term High yield bonds

Stinky wrote: Sat Oct 28, 2023 8:32 am
nisiprius wrote: Sat Oct 28, 2023 8:07 am
v42 wrote: Sat Oct 28, 2023 7:44 am This is not a fair comparison of volatility. IBHD is a defined maturity ETF while VUSB is a defined duration ETF.
:oops: Oops. I just blindly used the fund mentioned by Always Passive.
...Also IBHD is high yield vs VUSB is investment grade. They have very different credit default risk profiles and the SEC yield (even when durations match) reflects that...
Of course. That's really what's at issue here. I doubt that Always Passive is making a suitable allowance for risk.
A better comparison partner for IBHD would be IBDP, the 2024 investment grade corporate bond defined maturity ETF.

Or maybe IBTE, the 2024 Treasury ETF.
So in your risky assets portfolio, what would you do given the data ?
by Always passive
Sat Oct 28, 2023 8:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Short term High yield bonds
Replies: 28
Views: 2295

Re: Short term High yield bonds

This is not a fair comparison of volatility. IBHD is a defined maturity ETF while VUSB is a defined duration ETF. :oops: Oops. I just blindly used the fund mentioned by Always Passive. ...Also IBHD is high yield vs VUSB is investment grade. They have very different credit default risk profiles and the SEC yield (even when durations match) reflects that... Of course. That's really what's at issue here. I doubt that Always Passive is making a suitable allowance for risk. I understand your point on risk. My point is that I can buy an investment grade corporate bond ETF expiring in 12/24 with a YTM of about 6% or high yield ETF expiring in 12/24 with a YTM of about 8% or buy equities hoping that by 12/24 the return would be higher than the abo...
by Always passive
Sat Oct 28, 2023 7:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Short term High yield bonds
Replies: 28
Views: 2295

Re: Short term High yield bonds

All my fixed income is in a non rolling TIPS ladder. As retired we live out of this bonds plus SS and 2 small pensions. However, the rest is in risky assets, mainly equities.
I am now sitting on extra cash and wonder if to invest in equities, which we have done consistently or given the high interest rates, this time place it in IBHD, which is the iShares iBonds 2024 Term High Yield and Income ETF (expiration 12.24). If you believe iShares, the YTM of this is 8%. Very tempting
by Always passive
Sat Oct 28, 2023 5:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Short term High yield bonds
Replies: 28
Views: 2295

Re: Short term High yield bonds

Always passive wrote: Sat Oct 28, 2023 5:25 am
rossington wrote: Sat Oct 28, 2023 4:21 am
Always passive wrote: Sat Oct 28, 2023 2:13 am At 8% Short term high yield vs equities makes you wonder. Comments?
Individual bonds or bond funds?
Some examples would help.
IShares high yield duration 2024 IBHD
by Always passive
Sat Oct 28, 2023 5:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Short term High yield bonds
Replies: 28
Views: 2295

Re: Short term High yield bonds

rossington wrote: Sat Oct 28, 2023 4:21 am
Always passive wrote: Sat Oct 28, 2023 2:13 am At 8% Short term high yield vs equities makes you wonder. Comments?
Individual bonds or bond funds?
Some examples would help.
IShares high yield duration 2024
by Always passive
Sat Oct 28, 2023 3:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Short term High yield bonds
Replies: 28
Views: 2295

Re: Short term High yield bonds

whodidntante wrote: Sat Oct 28, 2023 3:08 am What does it make you wonder about? The higher yield is compensation for risk, which is absolutely real
So are equities
by Always passive
Sat Oct 28, 2023 2:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Short term High yield bonds
Replies: 28
Views: 2295

Short term High yield bonds

At 8% Short term high yield vs equities makes you wonder. Comments?
by Always passive
Sun Oct 22, 2023 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…
Replies: 2953
Views: 623600

Re: Now that long TIPS have pushed past 2.50% I will…

Absolutely! "Enough" is a powerful and useful concept. This. Once you retire, by definition, you have "enough". Otherwise you wouldn't retire. It's no longer about maximizing gains, because you already have enough. It's about preserving your nest-egg. I don't know about that. A nice lady, probably about 80 years old was helping to bag my groceries the other day. I have encountered her several times. I suspect she isn't alone among retirees in going back to work. Recently, we have had the double whammy of smaller portfolios and higher levels of inflation. "Enough" evidently wasn't "enough." So I will think things through very carefully before hanging it up for good. One reason I am working with an Adv...
by Always passive
Sat Oct 21, 2023 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…
Replies: 2953
Views: 623600

Re: Now that long TIPS have pushed past 2.50% I will…

This all would be much easier if we knew what the returns will be That's why they're called "expected returns," and not "[realized] returns." But just because expected returns aren't a certainty doesn't mean you shouldn't estimate them. Over the past 24 months the expected return of the 30-Y TIPS has risen 3%, which computes out to about a 50% price fall, whereas stocks have fallen only by approximately 10%, which implies a rise of expected return by a much smaller amount, likely in the vicinity of about 1%. So the risk premium relative to TIPS has fallen by roughly 2%. In which case, buying TIPS here seems a far better risk-adjusted deal than buying stocks. Like everything else in finance, that's at best a 60/40 bet, b...
by Always passive
Sat Oct 21, 2023 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…
Replies: 2953
Views: 623600

Re: Now that long TIPS have pushed past 2.50% I will…

This all would be much easier if we knew what the returns will be That's why they're called "expected returns," and not "[realized] returns." But just because expected returns aren't a certainty doesn't mean you shouldn't estimate them. Over the past 24 months the expected return of the 30-Y TIPS has risen 3%, which computes out to about a 50% price fall, whereas stocks have fallen only by approximately 10%, which implies a rise of expected return by a much smaller amount, likely in the vicinity of about 1%. So the risk premium relative to TIPS has fallen by roughly 2%. In which case, buying TIPS here seems a far better risk-adjusted deal than buying stocks. Like everything else in finance, that's at best a 60/40 bet, b...
by Always passive
Sat Oct 21, 2023 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…
Replies: 2953
Views: 623600

Re: Now that long TIPS have pushed past 2.50% I will…

The more excited I get about TIPS, the more their price falls! I was excited about 1.4% real yields in January, I am excited about 2.4% real yields today, think about how excited I will be about 3.4% real yields next year. Hi, ned. How excited will you be about 0.4% yields next year if you wait, knowing you let 2.4% pass? At least if you invest now, you won't kick yourself for being stupid if yields fall. If yields rise, you can at least pat yourself on the back by saying (like I do about the TIPS I bought in early summer 2022), "I did the best I could given what we knew at the time", which was that close to zero real looked pretty damn good with 8% inflation, no good alternatives, and no idea of the future. The bottom line is we...
by Always passive
Sat Oct 21, 2023 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Treasuries ar over 5% - would you gamble
Replies: 15
Views: 2120

Re: Long Treasuries ar over 5% - would you gamble

Tom_T wrote: Sat Oct 21, 2023 8:05 am
Always passive wrote: Sat Oct 21, 2023 8:04 am
dukeblue219 wrote: Sat Oct 21, 2023 7:59 am It's not much of a gamble. Id rather go a lot bigger with "play" money than a fixed nominal return that will likely underperform stocks long-term.

Unless you're gambling on a rapid rate cut, in which case a triple leveraged Treasury ETF would be a lot more exciting.
That was my thought! I do not know when by I think that eventually, months, maybe 1-2 years, etc., the Fed will cut rates. If I buy a 20 year treasury, a 1% cut will yield about 20%
What if rates go up a point before they come down? What did you gain?

Also, the Fed does not set Treasury rates.
It is most likely no longer my money but my inheritance money.
by Always passive
Sat Oct 21, 2023 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Treasuries ar over 5% - would you gamble
Replies: 15
Views: 2120

Re: Long Treasuries ar over 5% - would you gamble

dukeblue219 wrote: Sat Oct 21, 2023 7:59 am It's not much of a gamble. Id rather go a lot bigger with "play" money than a fixed nominal return that will likely underperform stocks long-term.

Unless you're gambling on a rapid rate cut, in which case a triple leveraged Treasury ETF would be a lot more exciting.
That was my thought! I do not know when by I think that eventually, months, maybe 1-2 years, etc., the Fed will cut rates. If I buy a 20 year treasury, a 1% cut will yield about 20%
by Always passive
Sat Oct 21, 2023 4:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Treasuries ar over 5% - would you gamble
Replies: 15
Views: 2120

Re: Long Treasuries ar over 5% - would you gamble

thedaybeforetoday wrote: Sat Oct 21, 2023 3:27 am No I have not considered.
I would look at purchasing individual 10 or 30 year TIPS or even Ibonds first.
But in a regular account?
by Always passive
Sat Oct 21, 2023 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Treasuries ar over 5% - would you gamble
Replies: 15
Views: 2120

Long Treasuries ar over 5% - would you gamble

I wonder if with playing money, anyone is considering buying some TLT or TLH ETF?