Very informative, thank you.
On KLML, I only found data from 2021, when the ETF seems to have its start. Where did you find data from the late 1980s?
Search found 1254 matches
- Fri Mar 22, 2024 4:37 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Managed Futures Strategy ETF DBMF
- Replies: 13
- Views: 1242
- Fri Mar 22, 2024 4:37 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Managed Futures Strategy ETF DBMF
- Replies: 13
- Views: 1242
Re: Managed Futures Strategy ETF DBMF
Very informative, thank you.
On KLML, I only found data from 2021, when the ETF seems to have its start. Where did you find data from the late 1980s?
On KLML, I only found data from 2021, when the ETF seems to have its start. Where did you find data from the late 1980s?
- Sat Mar 16, 2024 1:15 am
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: Gold As An Emergency Fund In A Country With Insane Inflation
- Replies: 32
- Views: 4749
Re: Gold As An Emergency Fund In A Country With Insane Inflation
We lived in Chile and most of the family savings were in c$ in Canada.seajay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2024 8:27 pmBy that do you mean another country? Or just not keeping money in your home?Always passive wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2024 3:37 am As a child I lived in Chile from parents that survived WWII. My father would always tell us that the money must not be kept in the place you live. When Allende took office and my family left, I realized the significance of his wise idea.
- Fri Mar 15, 2024 3:37 am
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: Gold As An Emergency Fund In A Country With Insane Inflation
- Replies: 32
- Views: 4749
Re: Gold As An Emergency Fund In A Country With Insane Inflation
As a child I lived in Chile from parents that survived WWII. My father would always tell us that the money must not be kept in the place you live. When Allende took office and my family left, I realized the significance of his wise idea.
- Sat Mar 09, 2024 3:43 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: UBS Won't Issue a Corrected 1099
- Replies: 14
- Views: 1430
Re: UBS Won't Issue a Corrected 1099
So...my MIL took a chunk of money out of an IRA in mid-October 2023. We realized it over Thanksgiving weekend, and arranged for her to re-deposit the funds at UBS within the 60 day window. UBS has now issued a 1099-R, showing the withdrawal - and with the ENTIRE amount in the taxable box! Which triggers a 6-figure tax bill. We called to discuss issuing a corrected 1099-R, and the rep said that they would not issue a corrected 1099; instead, they will mail my MIL the account statements, showing the withdrawal, and the re-deposit, within the 60 day window. This seems ridiculous to me - how can they blithely send out a tax document so blatantly wrong? Don't they have an obligation to correct it? Has anyone every had this situation, and DIDN'T...
- Sat Mar 09, 2024 3:41 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: UBS Won't Issue a Corrected 1099
- Replies: 14
- Views: 1430
Re: UBS Won't Issue a Corrected 1099
So...my MIL took a chunk of money out of an IRA in mid-October 2023. We realized it over Thanksgiving weekend, and arranged for her to re-deposit the funds at UBS within the 60 day window. UBS has now issued a 1099-R, showing the withdrawal - and with the ENTIRE amount in the taxable box! Which triggers a 6-figure tax bill. We called to discuss issuing a corrected 1099-R, and the rep said that they would not issue a corrected 1099; instead, they will mail my MIL the account statements, showing the withdrawal, and the re-deposit, within the 60 day window. This seems ridiculous to me - how can they blithely send out a tax document so blatantly wrong? Don't they have an obligation to correct it? Has anyone every had this situation, and DIDN'T...
- Mon Mar 04, 2024 11:30 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster
- Replies: 175
- Views: 17697
Re: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster
EM was a bet that did not pay off because investors did not understand that rule of law underpins all valuations and the bulk of EM are not rule of law countries. The investable world is the Anglosphere, western Europe, Israel in the middle east, Japan, Korea and a few others. Most of the rest of the world is not investable since you are at risk that your assets will be confiscated. Though of course you can be lucky if you get in and out at the right times. Where did you get the facts. You will be surprised by which countries have a good and decent rule of law. The USA is not exactly on top. See.. https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/wb_ruleoflaw/ Do you think that theglobaleconomy.com is really a reputable source? Really? There is a ...
- Mon Mar 04, 2024 3:31 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster
- Replies: 175
- Views: 17697
Re: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster
Where did you get the facts. You will be surprised by which countries have a good and decent rule of law. The USA is not exactly on top. See..Jack56 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 04, 2024 3:04 pm EM was a bet that did not pay off because investors did not understand that rule of law underpins all valuations and the bulk of EM are not rule of law countries. The investable world is the Anglosphere, western Europe, Israel in the middle east, Japan, Korea and a few others. Most of the rest of the world is not investable since you are at risk that your assets will be confiscated. Though of course you can be lucky if you get in and out at the right times.
https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/wb_ruleoflaw/
- Sun Mar 03, 2024 10:53 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster
- Replies: 175
- Views: 17697
Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster
Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster for the past 30 years. Bonds have shined due to USD strength. See article in M*..
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/when ... ng-markets
I have owned a small % but often want to get rid of this asset class. Comments?
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/when ... ng-markets
I have owned a small % but often want to get rid of this asset class. Comments?
- Tue Feb 27, 2024 12:18 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 30 yr TIPS = 2.2% real!
- Replies: 26
- Views: 4776
Re: 30 yr TIPS = 2.2% real!
Equities are much riskier than TIPS - TIPS have a known real cash flow and equities do not. Why take a risk you don't have to? It depends how you define risk. The common definition is you retirement balance going down and causing you to freak out. Bernstein's Shakespeare. On the other hand, if you define it in terms of real world consequences, like running out of money in retirement, bonds can be riskier than stocks. Basically, bonds don't grow enough over time, so at retirement if you get a LMP of TIPS, you'll see that you actually don't have enough money to fund your full retirement. In this case, bonds give a 100% chance of running out of money in retirement. Put another way, if you have enough money for a liability matching portfolio o...
- Sun Feb 25, 2024 1:38 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: How to invest better with bonds
- Replies: 3
- Views: 791
How to invest better with bonds
Would anyone care to comment on this recent work by Morningstar?
https://www.morningstar.com/bonds/how-i ... with-bonds
https://www.morningstar.com/bonds/how-i ... with-bonds
- Thu Feb 22, 2024 2:01 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 30 yr TIPS = 2.2% real!
- Replies: 26
- Views: 4776
30 yr TIPS = 2.2% real!
Why hold anything riskier if the goal is peaceful retirement?
“30-year TIPS auction gets real yield of 2.20%, highest in 14 years”
“30-year TIPS auction gets real yield of 2.20%, highest in 14 years”
- Wed Feb 14, 2024 8:59 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Managed Futures Strategy ETF DBMF
- Replies: 13
- Views: 1242
Re: Managed Futures Strategy ETF DBMF
Thank you. The graph tells it all
- Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:38 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Managed Futures Strategy ETF DBMF
- Replies: 13
- Views: 1242
Managed Futures Strategy ETF DBMF
Question: does a small percent of Managed Futures Strategy, like DBMF, that has a negative correlation to equities and fixed income fit in a portfolio?
- Sun Dec 31, 2023 6:04 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: AVUV
- Replies: 43
- Views: 4745
Re: AVUV
By tilting do you see any improvement relative to total market?Morik wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 4:07 am I personally 100% factor tilt (across multiple factors, not just small value), but for the majority of investors I'd recommend to just use total world stock market indices. Also reasonable to split out domestic from international for foreign tax credit in taxable accounts. Tax rules prevent claiming the credit if the ETF the foreign income is from also holds a bunch of domestic (I think the threshold is 50% domestic, but don't quote me on that), so using just VT is less tax efficient in taxable accounts.
- Sun Dec 31, 2023 12:44 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: AVUV
- Replies: 43
- Views: 4745
Re: AVUV
Valuations are not short term indicators. So even when an article states how you should position your portfolio for a particular year, it does not mean actively changing the portfolio every year. What does it mean? It means certain sectors of the market are undervalued each year, so positioning one’s portfolio by tilting to undervalued areas may enhance returns over the long run. These undervalued areas may change each year so how you should position a portfolio alludes to how to tilt a portfolio away from concentrating in overvalued sectors. It doesn’t mean change the portfolio to undervalued sectors and expect outperformance the following year. It does not mean every undervalued sector will outperform in the following year so you should ...
- Sat Dec 30, 2023 11:23 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: AVUV
- Replies: 43
- Views: 4745
Re: AVUV
Valuations are not short term indicators. So even when an article states how you should position your portfolio for a particular year, it does not mean actively changing the portfolio every year. What does it mean? It means certain sectors of the market are undervalued each year, so positioning one’s portfolio by tilting to undervalued areas may enhance returns over the long run. These undervalued areas may change each year so how you should position a portfolio alludes to how to tilt a portfolio away from concentrating in overvalued sectors. It doesn’t mean change the portfolio to undervalued sectors and expect outperformance the following year. It does not mean every undervalued sector will outperform in the following year so you should ...
- Sat Dec 30, 2023 8:33 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: AVUV
- Replies: 43
- Views: 4745
- Sat Dec 30, 2023 8:33 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: AVUV
- Replies: 43
- Views: 4745
- Sat Dec 30, 2023 7:49 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: AVUV
- Replies: 43
- Views: 4745
Re: AVUV
Very good point. I picked it because M* said so Seriously, it would help me understand things better if you could try to pick out exactly where "M* said so." https://www.morningstar.com/markets/2024-market-outlook-what-return-normal-means-stocks Good. It was specifically a 2024 "Market Outlook" article by one David Sekera, who is "chief U.S. market strategist for Morningstar." It is talking about "How Should Investors Position Themselves in 2024?" So the mindset here is market timing, or at least tactical asset allocation, in which we tinker with our portfolio every year. I hope I don't need to say it, but I will: that is not the the Bogleheads investment philosophy . So I assume you are taking the v...
- Sat Dec 30, 2023 7:26 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: AVUV
- Replies: 43
- Views: 4745
Re: AVUV
I have some money available and consider investing in a U.S. small cap value (AVUV). The addition would fall within my IPS, and would be <10% of my equity portfolio. But I have never invested in SCV, always in total markets, which are predominant large caps. Does it make sense for further diversification ? Let's take your question literally. It might make sense but it depends on your goal. What is your goal? Diversification for the sake of diversification? In that case, it would not make sense. Is your goal to reduce your exposure to the large cap / growth parts of the market because that would help you stick with your investment choices? Then buying some AVUV or VBR might make sense. But it seems you've stuck with Total Stock Market thus ...
- Sat Dec 30, 2023 7:18 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: AVUV
- Replies: 43
- Views: 4745
Re: AVUV
https://www.morningstar.com/markets/202 ... ans-stocksnisiprius wrote: ↑Sat Dec 30, 2023 7:04 amSeriously, it would help me understand things better if you could try to pick out exactly where "M* said so." I assume it was an article and you might be able to link to it. I would like to understand who it was, and, please, exactly what they said.
That is, did they say "Retirement savers ought to add a small-cap value fund to their portfolio in order to increase diversification?" Or did they just say "AVUV is a good small-cap value fund?"
- Sat Dec 30, 2023 6:57 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: AVUV
- Replies: 43
- Views: 4745
Re: AVUV
I have some money available and consider investing in a U.S. small cap value (AVUV). The addition would fall within my IPS, and would be <10% of my equity portfolio. But I have never invested in SCV, always in total markets, which are predominant large caps. Does it make sense for further diversification ? There's no definitive answer here as to whether small-cap value increases diversification or not when added to total market. Some could argue that small value is an additional risk factor(s) and diversifying across different risk factors outside of the "market" would increase diversification. Others could argue that these are not independent risk factors but the result of data mining, etc. No one knows the correct answer - only...
- Sat Dec 30, 2023 4:40 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: AVUV
- Replies: 43
- Views: 4745
AVUV
I have some money available and consider investing in a U.S. small cap value (AVUV). The addition would fall within my IPS, and would be <10% of my equity portfolio. But I have never invested in SCV, always in total markets, which are predominant large caps. Does it make sense for further diversification ?
- Tue Nov 14, 2023 8:32 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF JAAA ?
- Replies: 4
- Views: 975
Re: Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF JAAA ?
Thank you. In addition I think that “liquidity” maybe an issue when you need fixed income the mostkaseg wrote: ↑Tue Nov 14, 2023 12:23 am No.
These are fairly complicated products that take below investment grade debt and package them up into tranches, so they can market the top tranches as "low risk". Given that it only yields 1% or so more than ultra short investment grade corporate bonds, it doesnt even seem like the additional risk is being priced particularly attractively.
- Mon Nov 13, 2023 11:23 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF JAAA ?
- Replies: 4
- Views: 975
Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF JAAA ?
Would you invest in this fund?
Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF JAAA
Ultra short term
High yield
Low risk
Investment grade
Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF JAAA
Ultra short term
High yield
Low risk
Investment grade
- Thu Nov 02, 2023 12:11 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: iShares iBonds 2033 Term TIPS ETF - advantages over TIPS
- Replies: 31
- Views: 3937
Re: iShares iBonds 2033 Term TIPS ETF - advantages over TIPS
But no one knows the inflation factortoddthebod wrote: ↑Thu Nov 02, 2023 11:52 amIt's a weighted average of the YTMs of the bonds they hold.Always passive wrote: ↑Thu Nov 02, 2023 11:14 am How does iShares calculate the YTM on these TIPS ETFs?? There is a number in each ETF
- Thu Nov 02, 2023 11:14 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: iShares iBonds 2033 Term TIPS ETF - advantages over TIPS
- Replies: 31
- Views: 3937
Re: iShares iBonds 2033 Term TIPS ETF - advantages over TIPS
How does iShares calculate the YTM on these TIPS ETFs?? There is a number in each ETF
- Tue Oct 31, 2023 3:16 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Friend's Portfolio - Can he make it?
- Replies: 52
- Views: 7040
Re: Friend's Portfolio - Can he make it?
Can this friend make it?? Please Comments? His age 70; Her age 75; No children Portfolio Present Size: $2.4m Allocation: Short Term Bonds 32% Intermediate Term bonds 22% US Stocks 32% Foreign Stocks 14% Gold 10% Bonds: All in indexes. Stocks: DFA funds bias toward mid/small cap value Annual need from Portfolio $120-140k The more I think about your question, the more I believe no-one can give very useful input without more understanding of what their money is being spent on, what is the survivor benefit on the pension (50%, 100%, etc), what are their legacy goals, do they have a paid off house etc. We can only tell you that they are pulling a somewhat high percentage from the portfolio, but they are probably not looking at a full 30 years g...
- Mon Oct 30, 2023 1:48 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Friend's Portfolio - Can he make it?
- Replies: 52
- Views: 7040
Re: Friend's Portfolio - Can he make it?
OP, They will make it because they will cut spending when they have to. And, there is enough money in social security and pension for them to survive on. KlangFool Agree. They are over 70. Probably lived a great life on $200k+ a year. I don’t see them spending more, and likely will spend less. I’d love more thought on this board about the discretionary spending curve/smile for high net worth individuals. My gut tells me after age 70, HNW folks slow down and likely don’t spend more than they did in their 50s or 60s while raising families. Prove me wrong ;) I guess that my friend does not spend that much on themselves but as I know him , he may be contributing a good chunk of money to his religious organization and others. I have seen him do...
- Sun Oct 29, 2023 11:59 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Friend's Portfolio - Can he make it?
- Replies: 52
- Views: 7040
- Sun Oct 29, 2023 3:17 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Friend's Portfolio - Can he make it?
- Replies: 52
- Views: 7040
Re: Friend's Portfolio - Can he make it?
They are not working. She stopped a few years ago and he just sold his share of a private business.
- Sun Oct 29, 2023 2:58 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Friend's Portfolio - Can he make it?
- Replies: 52
- Views: 7040
Re: Friend's Portfolio - Can he make it?
Sorry, US equities 22%KlingKlang wrote: ↑Sun Oct 29, 2023 2:47 pm The percentages add up to 110%.
They are spending 5.0 to 5.8% of portfolio assets annually. Any additional income from pensions and social security?
They spend 220-240k/year and receive 100k/year in SS plus pensions inflation adjusted
- Sun Oct 29, 2023 2:42 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Friend's Portfolio - Can he make it?
- Replies: 52
- Views: 7040
Friend's Portfolio - Can he make it?
Can this friend make it?? Please Comments?
His age 70; Her age 75; No children
Portfolio
Present Size: $2.4m
Allocation:
Short Term Bonds 32%
Intermediate Term bonds 22%
US Stocks 32%
Foreign Stocks 14%
Gold 10%
Bonds:
All in indexes.
Stocks:
DFA funds bias toward mid/small cap value
Annual need from Portfolio $120-140k
His age 70; Her age 75; No children
Portfolio
Present Size: $2.4m
Allocation:
Short Term Bonds 32%
Intermediate Term bonds 22%
US Stocks 32%
Foreign Stocks 14%
Gold 10%
Bonds:
All in indexes.
Stocks:
DFA funds bias toward mid/small cap value
Annual need from Portfolio $120-140k
- Sat Oct 28, 2023 8:58 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Short term High yield bonds
- Replies: 28
- Views: 2295
Re: Short term High yield bonds
I recommend that you read the prospectus before investing. First, its not solely a high yield bond ETF. There are both investment grade bonds and below-investment grade bonds in the portfolio. Second, the ratio of the two in the last 1.5 years of the term depends on a formula which I find difficult to use to predict the outcome. Third, during the first six months of 2024, the fund reinvests proceeds into bonds it already owns, becoming more concentrated in the process. Then, in the last six months of the year, proceeds are held in cash bearing NO interest (emphasis mine). I believe you are incorrect when you state that YTM is 8% 8% is the SEC 30 day yield, not a yield to maturity. I would presume that yield will fall in the last six months...
- Sat Oct 28, 2023 8:56 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Short term High yield bonds
- Replies: 28
- Views: 2295
Re: Short term High yield bonds
So in your risky assets portfolio, what would you do given the data ?Stinky wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 8:32 amA better comparison partner for IBHD would be IBDP, the 2024 investment grade corporate bond defined maturity ETF.nisiprius wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 8:07 amOops. I just blindly used the fund mentioned by Always Passive.Of course. That's really what's at issue here. I doubt that Always Passive is making a suitable allowance for risk....Also IBHD is high yield vs VUSB is investment grade. They have very different credit default risk profiles and the SEC yield (even when durations match) reflects that...
Or maybe IBTE, the 2024 Treasury ETF.
- Sat Oct 28, 2023 8:23 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Short term High yield bonds
- Replies: 28
- Views: 2295
Re: Short term High yield bonds
This is not a fair comparison of volatility. IBHD is a defined maturity ETF while VUSB is a defined duration ETF. :oops: Oops. I just blindly used the fund mentioned by Always Passive. ...Also IBHD is high yield vs VUSB is investment grade. They have very different credit default risk profiles and the SEC yield (even when durations match) reflects that... Of course. That's really what's at issue here. I doubt that Always Passive is making a suitable allowance for risk. I understand your point on risk. My point is that I can buy an investment grade corporate bond ETF expiring in 12/24 with a YTM of about 6% or high yield ETF expiring in 12/24 with a YTM of about 8% or buy equities hoping that by 12/24 the return would be higher than the abo...
- Sat Oct 28, 2023 7:41 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Short term High yield bonds
- Replies: 28
- Views: 2295
Re: Short term High yield bonds
All my fixed income is in a non rolling TIPS ladder. As retired we live out of this bonds plus SS and 2 small pensions. However, the rest is in risky assets, mainly equities.
I am now sitting on extra cash and wonder if to invest in equities, which we have done consistently or given the high interest rates, this time place it in IBHD, which is the iShares iBonds 2024 Term High Yield and Income ETF (expiration 12.24). If you believe iShares, the YTM of this is 8%. Very tempting
I am now sitting on extra cash and wonder if to invest in equities, which we have done consistently or given the high interest rates, this time place it in IBHD, which is the iShares iBonds 2024 Term High Yield and Income ETF (expiration 12.24). If you believe iShares, the YTM of this is 8%. Very tempting
- Sat Oct 28, 2023 5:26 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Short term High yield bonds
- Replies: 28
- Views: 2295
Re: Short term High yield bonds
Always passive wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 5:25 amIShares high yield duration 2024 IBHDrossington wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 4:21 amIndividual bonds or bond funds?Always passive wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 2:13 am At 8% Short term high yield vs equities makes you wonder. Comments?
Some examples would help.
- Sat Oct 28, 2023 5:25 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Short term High yield bonds
- Replies: 28
- Views: 2295
Re: Short term High yield bonds
IShares high yield duration 2024rossington wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 4:21 amIndividual bonds or bond funds?Always passive wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 2:13 am At 8% Short term high yield vs equities makes you wonder. Comments?
Some examples would help.
- Sat Oct 28, 2023 3:19 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Short term High yield bonds
- Replies: 28
- Views: 2295
Re: Short term High yield bonds
So are equitieswhodidntante wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 3:08 am What does it make you wonder about? The higher yield is compensation for risk, which is absolutely real
- Sat Oct 28, 2023 2:13 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Short term High yield bonds
- Replies: 28
- Views: 2295
Short term High yield bonds
At 8% Short term high yield vs equities makes you wonder. Comments?
- Sun Oct 22, 2023 8:16 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…
- Replies: 2953
- Views: 623600
Re: Now that long TIPS have pushed past 2.50% I will…
Absolutely! "Enough" is a powerful and useful concept. This. Once you retire, by definition, you have "enough". Otherwise you wouldn't retire. It's no longer about maximizing gains, because you already have enough. It's about preserving your nest-egg. I don't know about that. A nice lady, probably about 80 years old was helping to bag my groceries the other day. I have encountered her several times. I suspect she isn't alone among retirees in going back to work. Recently, we have had the double whammy of smaller portfolios and higher levels of inflation. "Enough" evidently wasn't "enough." So I will think things through very carefully before hanging it up for good. One reason I am working with an Adv...
- Sat Oct 21, 2023 9:30 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…
- Replies: 2953
- Views: 623600
Re: Now that long TIPS have pushed past 2.50% I will…
This all would be much easier if we knew what the returns will be That's why they're called "expected returns," and not "[realized] returns." But just because expected returns aren't a certainty doesn't mean you shouldn't estimate them. Over the past 24 months the expected return of the 30-Y TIPS has risen 3%, which computes out to about a 50% price fall, whereas stocks have fallen only by approximately 10%, which implies a rise of expected return by a much smaller amount, likely in the vicinity of about 1%. So the risk premium relative to TIPS has fallen by roughly 2%. In which case, buying TIPS here seems a far better risk-adjusted deal than buying stocks. Like everything else in finance, that's at best a 60/40 bet, b...
- Sat Oct 21, 2023 9:29 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…
- Replies: 2953
- Views: 623600
Re: Now that long TIPS have pushed past 2.50% I will…
This all would be much easier if we knew what the returns will be That's why they're called "expected returns," and not "[realized] returns." But just because expected returns aren't a certainty doesn't mean you shouldn't estimate them. Over the past 24 months the expected return of the 30-Y TIPS has risen 3%, which computes out to about a 50% price fall, whereas stocks have fallen only by approximately 10%, which implies a rise of expected return by a much smaller amount, likely in the vicinity of about 1%. So the risk premium relative to TIPS has fallen by roughly 2%. In which case, buying TIPS here seems a far better risk-adjusted deal than buying stocks. Like everything else in finance, that's at best a 60/40 bet, b...
- Sat Oct 21, 2023 9:01 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…
- Replies: 2953
- Views: 623600
Re: Now that long TIPS have pushed past 2.50% I will…
The more excited I get about TIPS, the more their price falls! I was excited about 1.4% real yields in January, I am excited about 2.4% real yields today, think about how excited I will be about 3.4% real yields next year. Hi, ned. How excited will you be about 0.4% yields next year if you wait, knowing you let 2.4% pass? At least if you invest now, you won't kick yourself for being stupid if yields fall. If yields rise, you can at least pat yourself on the back by saying (like I do about the TIPS I bought in early summer 2022), "I did the best I could given what we knew at the time", which was that close to zero real looked pretty damn good with 8% inflation, no good alternatives, and no idea of the future. The bottom line is we...
- Sat Oct 21, 2023 8:16 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Long Treasuries ar over 5% - would you gamble
- Replies: 15
- Views: 2120
Re: Long Treasuries ar over 5% - would you gamble
It is most likely no longer my money but my inheritance money.Tom_T wrote: ↑Sat Oct 21, 2023 8:05 amWhat if rates go up a point before they come down? What did you gain?Always passive wrote: ↑Sat Oct 21, 2023 8:04 amThat was my thought! I do not know when by I think that eventually, months, maybe 1-2 years, etc., the Fed will cut rates. If I buy a 20 year treasury, a 1% cut will yield about 20%dukeblue219 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 21, 2023 7:59 am It's not much of a gamble. Id rather go a lot bigger with "play" money than a fixed nominal return that will likely underperform stocks long-term.
Unless you're gambling on a rapid rate cut, in which case a triple leveraged Treasury ETF would be a lot more exciting.
Also, the Fed does not set Treasury rates.
- Sat Oct 21, 2023 8:04 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Long Treasuries ar over 5% - would you gamble
- Replies: 15
- Views: 2120
Re: Long Treasuries ar over 5% - would you gamble
That was my thought! I do not know when by I think that eventually, months, maybe 1-2 years, etc., the Fed will cut rates. If I buy a 20 year treasury, a 1% cut will yield about 20%dukeblue219 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 21, 2023 7:59 am It's not much of a gamble. Id rather go a lot bigger with "play" money than a fixed nominal return that will likely underperform stocks long-term.
Unless you're gambling on a rapid rate cut, in which case a triple leveraged Treasury ETF would be a lot more exciting.
- Sat Oct 21, 2023 4:30 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Long Treasuries ar over 5% - would you gamble
- Replies: 15
- Views: 2120
Re: Long Treasuries ar over 5% - would you gamble
But in a regular account?thedaybeforetoday wrote: ↑Sat Oct 21, 2023 3:27 am No I have not considered.
I would look at purchasing individual 10 or 30 year TIPS or even Ibonds first.
- Sat Oct 21, 2023 12:41 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Long Treasuries ar over 5% - would you gamble
- Replies: 15
- Views: 2120
Long Treasuries ar over 5% - would you gamble
I wonder if with playing money, anyone is considering buying some TLT or TLH ETF?