Search found 489 matches

by Always passive
Wed May 20, 2020 2:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Stocks Funds too exposed to China
Replies: 27
Views: 2180

Emerging Market Stocks Funds too exposed to China

Are there any EM funds/ETFs with less exposure to China? Most are over 30% of the fund
by Always passive
Tue May 19, 2020 4:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 324
Views: 16486

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

If you're matching your retirement date to your bonds maturity date, how often do you reduce the duration of your bonds in your portfolio? I’m matching my bond duration to my investment time horizon (the midpoint of which is about 15-20 years after retirement), so I’m not yet to the point of needin...
by Always passive
Mon May 18, 2020 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 324
Views: 16486

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

So, if you want a long term bond guaranteed by Uncle Sammy you can pick up the re-issued 20-year treasury at auction which should yield 1.05% if you hold it to maturity to avoid interest rate risk. Or you could buy Series EE Savings Bonds, which will pay 3.5% if you hold for 20 years. Although the ...
by Always passive
Mon May 18, 2020 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 20-year bond at nominal yield of 1.05%
Replies: 7
Views: 908

Re: The 20-year bond at nominal yield of 1.05%

Confused as to why you're asking about nominal yields on real-return bonds (you're talking about a TIPS ladder, right?). You right, but I have been buying TIPS for a while and never been confronted with a scenario where inflation may be part of the past. Who knows what the future will bring but inf...
by Always passive
Mon May 18, 2020 12:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Seeking Book Recommendations: Failed States
Replies: 8
Views: 784

Re: Seeking Book Recommendations: Failed States

Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty
by Daron Acemoğlu, James A. Robinson
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Why-Nations-Fa ... B007MPFM04

States fail because of "man-made political and economic institutions that underlie economic success (or lack of it)."
by Always passive
Sun May 17, 2020 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 20-year bond at nominal yield of 1.05%
Replies: 7
Views: 908

The 20-year bond at nominal yield of 1.05%

For those in retirement, like me, that hold a TIPs ladder to finance retirement, the 20-year bond will be auctioned Thursday. The nominal yield should be about 1.05%. I never expected to get such a lousy return, but an attractive proposition for the Treasury needing you finance the cost of the coron...
by Always passive
Sat May 16, 2020 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 324
Views: 16486

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

I was answering to someone that was challenging the article’s point that long term bonds are for fools. The only fool is a long-term investor who owns bonds that AREN’T long-term bonds. Rekenthaler has it exactly backwards. Unless inflation for the next 20+ years is below the current YTM of this ET...
by Always passive
Sat May 16, 2020 12:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 324
Views: 16486

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

Last time I checked, if you buy TLT, the 20+ year Treasury ETF and you hold it to maturity you get 1.24% annually, no mattedr what happens to yields in the interim. So where is he wrong? Unless you decide you are a trader and feel that you can market time. Bonds yields, assuming no default (and I a...
by Always passive
Fri May 15, 2020 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 324
Views: 16486

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

Rekenthaler argues that long-term investors should avoid long bonds, because at current low rates the expected return is a non-starter. They are better viewed as short-term trading vehicles by retail investors and not buy-and-hold investments. And we know about active trading. Today’s investors are...
by Always passive
Fri May 15, 2020 7:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still using total bond market?
Replies: 140
Views: 16540

Re: Still using total bond market?

I still have a total bond in my employer 401k. It's not a Vanguard product but similar from a competitor. I think about it every day. I rebalanced out of a large percentage during our last drop, small percentages at a time, during March and April, into a more aggressive Russell 1000/2000 index fund...
by Always passive
Fri May 15, 2020 1:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still using total bond market?
Replies: 140
Views: 16540

Re: Still using total bond market?

Look at the below yield to maturity data and decide for yourself SHY (short term treasuries) 0.22% IEI (intermediate term treasuries) 0.38% TLT (long term treasuries) 1.16% IGSB (short term Corp) 2.18% LQD (intermediate term Corp - this ETF has a bit longer maturity) 2.77% AGG (total bond) 1.42% No...
by Always passive
Tue May 05, 2020 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Allocating bond/fixed income portion of portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 827

Re: Allocating bond/fixed income portion of portfolio

In mid-March, I moved 100% of my bond investments (all IRA) to Treasury/federal MMF as my bonds were all ST and IT investment grade (VFSUX and VFIDX). I was concerned about the 5% NAV decline and the potential for the BBB holdings to be downgraded to junk. Prices have rebounded, but I am still conc...
by Always passive
Sat Apr 25, 2020 12:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still using total bond market?
Replies: 140
Views: 16540

Re: Still using total bond market?

Look at the below yield to maturity data and decide for yourself SHY (short term treasuries) 0.22% IEI (intermediate term treasuries) 0.38% TLT (long term treasuries) 1.16% IGSB (short term Corp) 2.18% LQD (intermediate term Corp - this ETF has a bit longer maturity) 2.77% AGG (total bond) 1.42% No...
by Always passive
Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still using total bond market?
Replies: 140
Views: 16540

Re: Still using total bond market?

Look at the below yield to maturity data and decide for yourself SHY (short term treasuries) 0.22% IEI (intermediate term treasuries) 0.38% TLT (long term treasuries) 1.16% IGSB (short term Corp) 2.18% LQD (intermediate term Corp - this ETF has a bit longer maturity) 2.77% AGG (total bond) 1.42% Now...
by Always passive
Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those concerned about International Stocks...
Replies: 78
Views: 6806

Re: For those concerned about International Stocks...

Is there any data available on multi national companies based in the US? Their income comes from their exposure to multi countries. And if this is true, then one can make a case that if investing in these companies, it really does not make any difference where they are domiciled. As an example, I in...
by Always passive
Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still using total bond market?
Replies: 140
Views: 16540

Re: Still using total bond market?

Robert20 wrote:
Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:49 pm
bugleheadd wrote:
Tue Apr 14, 2020 3:50 pm
What type of treasuries is a good alternative to BND right now? How much does it yield?
I am buying EDV regularly... Happy so far..
I have all my bonds in treasuries, about half in Vanguard intermediate term treasuries (VGIT), and the rest in TIPS.?No return but as safe as it can get.
by Always passive
Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still using total bond market?
Replies: 140
Views: 16540

Re: Still using total bond market?

If you are not entirely happy with your total bond, you could see what the stable value is paying. The ER of the stable value does not matter - whatever it pays, it is after that ER is taken out. If it is paying something reasonable (it probably changes every year), you might put some of your 401k ...
by Always passive
Fri Apr 17, 2020 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still using total bond market?
Replies: 140
Views: 16540

Re: Still using total bond market?

This has nothing to do with “different strategy” OK :) I was merely referring to the fact that I'm not interested in changing my bond holdings based on present interest rates, and this seemed to be in contrast to your approach. Sorry that I have become a pain, and please forgive me for that. But wo...
by Always passive
Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still using total bond market?
Replies: 140
Views: 16540

Re: Still using total bond market?

All is possible, but if it happens, it will be unprecedented in the US and highly likely of very small magnitude. I am saying that as far as i see the situations, bonds are dead, and even may lose money when and if rates move up. Bottom-line, they will only fulfill one function, portfolio stability...
by Always passive
Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still using total bond market?
Replies: 140
Views: 16540

Re: Still using total bond market?

Are you saying negative interest rates are not possible? All is possible, but if it happens, it will be unprecedented in the US and highly likely of very small magnitude. I am saying that as far as i see the situations, bonds are dead, and even may lose money when and if rates move up. Bottom-line,...
by Always passive
Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still using total bond market?
Replies: 140
Views: 16540

Re: Still using total bond market?

Given the extremely low interest rates, I do not see any point in using Total Bond, when Treasuries are safer. My bond portfolio is 100% treasuries. Further, given that interest rates will stay at zero (at least untiul the crisis is over) and eventually going up (no other way to go) , cash (CDs, et...
by Always passive
Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still using total bond market?
Replies: 140
Views: 16540

Re: Still using total bond market?

Given the extremely low interest rates, I do not see any point in using Total Bond, when Treasuries are safer. My bond portfolio is 100% treasuries. Further, given that interest rates will stay at zero (at least untiul the crisis is over) and eventually going up (no other way to go) , cash (CDs, et...
by Always passive
Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still using total bond market?
Replies: 140
Views: 16540

Re: Still using total bond market?

Given the extremely low interest rates, I do not see any point in using Total Bond, when Treasuries are safer. My bond portfolio is 100% treasuries. Further, given that interest rates will stay at zero (at least untiul the crisis is over) and eventually going up (no other way to go), cash (CDs, etc)...
by Always passive
Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 50% QLTA + 50% VGIT
Replies: 7
Views: 512

Re: 50% QLTA + 50% VGIT

I tend to agree with you that bonds should be high quality, and personally only hold Treasuries. That said, if your portfolio is mostly bonds, it might be worth reaching for yield. If you're going to hold corporates, the ETF you pointed out looks good to me (note that it buys bonds rated A or above...
by Always passive
Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 50% QLTA + 50% VGIT
Replies: 7
Views: 512

Re: 50% QLTA + 50% VGIT

I tend to agree with you that bonds should be high quality, and personally only hold Treasuries. That said, if your portfolio is mostly bonds, it might be worth reaching for yield. If you're going to hold corporates, the ETF you pointed out looks good to me (note that it buys bonds rated A or above...
by Always passive
Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 50% QLTA + 50% VGIT
Replies: 7
Views: 512

Re: 50% QLTA + 50% VGIT

Will Intermediate treasuries keep up with inflation in the long term?
by Always passive
Sun Apr 12, 2020 12:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 50% QLTA + 50% VGIT
Replies: 7
Views: 512

50% QLTA + 50% VGIT

My fixed income portfolio (about 75% of the total portfolio) is in an intermediate treasuries ETF and a 10 year ladder of TIPS, which have done me well during this crisis. Given the very low interest rates, it has been recommended by my investment company that I leave alone the TIPS ladder, but spli...
by Always passive
Fri Apr 10, 2020 4:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1111
Views: 109998

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

The problem with this allocation is 90+ correlated to the market
by Always passive
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond vs Intermediate Treasuries
Replies: 3
Views: 607

Total Bond vs Intermediate Treasuries

Using Portfolio Visualizer I have simulated two options for the portion of my portfolio that is in fixed income. Total Bond vs Intermediate Treasuries. The data that I use goes back to 2010 and includes March 2020. It shows that being in Treasuries is slightly more attractive. My question to the for...
by Always passive
Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modern Monetary Theory
Replies: 97
Views: 6571

Re: Modern Monetary Theory

An additional and very significant problem with the heavy Fed intervention is that price discovery in the market is suffering. You cannot have free market when the Fed manipulates it to the extend we have seen for the past years, I would say since the 2007-8 subprime crisis. The market is beeing kep...
by Always passive
Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VBTLX (Total Bond Market) vs. VBILX (Intermediate Bond Index)
Replies: 28
Views: 2545

Re: VBTLX (Total Bond Market) vs. VBILX (Intermediate Bond Index)

There were some deep discussions of this in the past that I followed intently. I ended up splitting my fixed allocation to equal parts of each. j :happy Great minds think alike, I use 50/50 fixed income in these two funds also. :sharebeer Dan I was the same. Then combined to just VBILX. Then, after...
by Always passive
Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VBTLX (Total Bond Market) vs. VBILX (Intermediate Bond Index)
Replies: 28
Views: 2545

Re: VBTLX (Total Bond Market) vs. VBILX (Intermediate Bond Index)

Why not Intermediate Term Government. In the long run, there has not been much difference between VGIT and AGG (or VBTLX). I believe in ultraconservatism in fixed income. Take the risk in stocks
by Always passive
Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks are undervalued!
Replies: 83
Views: 9095

Re: International stocks are undervalued!

During times of stress one can get quality companies on the cheap. Why risk with anything else. If you buy Exxon today (anyone thinking that it will go under?), you can get 8-9% dividend (it has paid dividends 36 years consecutive) waiting for it to return to normal times. Chevron is also attractive...
by Always passive
Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trend following funds (like VMOT) and dual momentum totally ineffective in this bear market
Replies: 34
Views: 1449

Re: Trend following funds (like VMOT) and dual momentum totally ineffective in this bear market

Don’t count all Dual Momentum models all out, I have a personalized version of Antonacci’s GEM and my own Dual Momentum model - The Russell, they both got out of the markets at the end of February with rules based, evidence based structure - no subjectivity whatsoever. You may have gotten out, but ...
by Always passive
Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Share what worked in your plan during the crisis
Replies: 103
Views: 6962

Re: Share what worked in your plan during the crisis

Do not be gready in fixed income for another % or so. The below statement (not mine) was much help.. " Try to take most of your risk on the equity side of the portfolio and leave the fixed-income side of the portfolio to be there for capital preservation to help reduce the volatility of the portfoli...
by Always passive
Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Happens To Your Battery When Your Car Is Parked For Weeks?
Replies: 90
Views: 4727

Re: What to do with my cars during Corona Lockdown

I live overseas. I am retired and I think that I can get stopped by the police if I cannot prove that I am going to work. It is a mess! Does it help just to start the car? What happens when your food supplies run out? You can walk to the market or drugstore as long as you keep 2 meters distance. Mo...
by Always passive
Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Happens To Your Battery When Your Car Is Parked For Weeks?
Replies: 90
Views: 4727

Re: What to do with my cars during Corona Lockdown

I live overseas. I am retired and I think that I can get stopped by the police if I cannot prove that I am going to work. It is a mess!
Does it help just to start the car?
by Always passive
Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Happens To Your Battery When Your Car Is Parked For Weeks?
Replies: 90
Views: 4727

What to do with my cars during Corona Lockdown

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek]

Silly question: our cars are parked already for days which may turn into weeks. What do you do to protect the car battery? Disconnect it? Or is it enough to start the car once in a while? And other issues?
by Always passive
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Replies: 302
Views: 14213

Re: Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?

To recap: we are facing a world-historic crisis situation, much of which depends on how the US pandemic plays out, and various economic vicious cycles play out after an unprecedented small-business wipeout and massive unemployment...while at the same time we have (without getting too deep into poli...
by Always passive
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 and Dow Futures Hit Limit Down After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open
Replies: 155
Views: 12926

Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Hit Limit Down After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

In the Great Depression bonds held up, specially treasuries. However there way room for interest rates to go down. I do not know what will happen to them when interest rates are at 0%. With respect to the rest, if you are invested in indexes, unless this is the end of the world (and if it, money is ...
by Always passive
Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dad pulling retirements out of market. Advice Please!
Replies: 58
Views: 5949

Re: Dad pulling retirements out of market. Advice Please!

I recommend to all investors to read Bill Bernstein’s books.
I have learned so much from him.
He has a quote that we should all treat seriously: “If you’ve won the game, stop playing”
by Always passive
Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Now 80 years old and lost 5%
Replies: 7
Views: 1778

Re: Now 80 years old and lost 5%

My friend advised me that a loss of 5% was very bad news. I am about 12% equities in AA, and I am there because I am too old to recover from a major turn down in the market such as we are currently having. Several of my friends about my age have financial advisors and they were about 40%-50% in equ...
by Always passive
Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: treasuries only portfolio
Replies: 33
Views: 2048

Re: treasuries only portfolio

Thank you for sharing your situation.
I understand that you sold your equities. If I were to do that it would at a loss of 20%. In my view the problem is not only the loss, but how to know when to return to the market. What is your strategy to enter the market?
by Always passive
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: treasuries only portfolio
Replies: 33
Views: 2048

Re: treasuries only portfolio

ochotona wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:46 pm
My Mom is 90, has 100% Treasuries! That's where we are all headed.

So, i'd put in 2.5% a month into stocks starting now for the next 10-12 months, every month. Get to 25% - 30%. You'll be fine.
Good idea, thank you
by Always passive
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dad pulling retirements out of market. Advice Please!
Replies: 58
Views: 5949

Re: Dad pulling retirements out of market. Advice Please!

The question is why is their portfolio so risky? I am 71 and my wife a bit younger. Our portfolio is 20% stocks/80% treasuries. We have been able to live with this allocation averaging annual expenses of about 3% of the portfolio. Most likely I will increase it to 25% because treasuries are not yiel...
by Always passive
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: treasuries only portfolio
Replies: 33
Views: 2048

Re: treasuries only portfolio

I think the best resolution of this stock thing is to split the difference and go to 25%. Really there is not enough difference here to be very concerned about it. A key factor is the data point that you don't expect to withdraw from your portfolio at too high a rate. You posted 3% as a number. The...
by Always passive
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: treasuries only portfolio
Replies: 33
Views: 2048

Re: treasuries only portfolio

Bill Bernstein and others of his mindset support the basic concept of taking risk with equities (stock), employing bonds for stability and safety. In essence, paring Treasuries with Stocks and forgoing the corporate/muni bond market entirely. I for one have taken that approach, and it makes decisio...
by Always passive
Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: treasuries only portfolio
Replies: 33
Views: 2048

Re: treasuries only portfolio

If I were in your place I would be 30% stocks. But, honestly, I don't see an obvious problem. I imagine other people here are going to suggest just a tad more in stocks than you have. Let us assume that I wish to increase the stock allocation to 30%, as you all suggest, which I think maybe prudent,...
by Always passive
Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: treasuries only portfolio
Replies: 33
Views: 2048

Re: treasuries only portfolio

I am 71. Since retirement at 55, I have needed to withdraw about 3% from my portfolio.