Search found 146 matches

by Walkure
Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 2338
Views: 188641

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Spotted a news item that the Treasury will resume auctioning 20-yr bonds: https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-treasury-is-issuing-20-year-bonds-instead-of-century-51579536452 TMF targets 20+ years to maturity, which it does by purchasing return swaps on 30-year bonds less than 10 years from issuanc...
by Walkure
Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Funds Review For Gardener in MD
Replies: 5
Views: 476

Re: Retirement Funds Review For Gardener in MD

Indexer99 wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:08 pm
Tax Filing Status: Single.

Tax Rate: 22% Federal, 6% State, Income=58k

Current Age: 58. Hopeful retirement age: 70

6. What to do with taxable being so large?
Maybe get married and harvest gains to the top of the 0% LTCG bracket? :beer
by Walkure
Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young
Replies: 768
Views: 60587

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young

Ok, I think we are talking about slightly different approaches. I'm not talking about an individual call at 10:1 leverage. I'm talking about buying like one or two calls a month that is between 2:1 to 3:1 leverage continuously until you hit the target exposure. More practically, I'm considering mai...
by Walkure
Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understanding EDV after tax returns published by Vanguard
Replies: 4
Views: 342

Re: Help me understanding EDV after tax returns published by Vanguard

Here is the relevant section from the summary prospectus: Average Annual Total Returns for Periods Ended December 31, 2018 Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index Fund ETF Shares Based on NAV 1 Year 5 Years 10 Years Return Before Taxes –3.51% 9.12% 3.23% Return After Taxes on Distributions –4.68 7...
by Walkure
Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 134
Views: 6787

Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Fund: Furst Quinn Tyler Lasch

Long: UBNT, JNPR
by Walkure
Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home appraisal gone wrong (split levels and livable space)
Replies: 47
Views: 8163

Re: Home appraisal gone wrong (split levels and livable space)

It sounds like the best investment you could make in a house like this is to rent a backhoe for a weekend, shave down 2' of dirt from your front yard, throw down some sod, and voila, you now live in a trendy colonial! :annoyed
by Walkure
Wed Dec 18, 2019 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Analysis of the Moaty-ness of Index Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 860

Re: An Analysis of the Moaty-ness of Index Funds

I just came to this thread because I was impressed by the Topic Author's name: Benjamin Buffett. What a name! If you combine Benjamin Graham with Warren Buffett, you get Benjamin Buffet. That is exactly where the name came from. :happy Well, thank goodness you didn't go with Warren Graham, which so...
by Walkure
Mon Dec 16, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 2338
Views: 188641

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

It’s kinda ridiculous to judge any investment strategy over the course of a few months... I'm not...? I think it has a lot of merit but I can also be skeptical about my entrance timing and I was uncomfortable with the potential drawdown (below principal) after not getting some more gains built up. ...
by Walkure
Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Life Strategy Fund "Rebalancing to zero"
Replies: 22
Views: 2274

Re: Life Strategy Fund "Rebalancing to zero"

First, unless bonds also "went to zero" it would only asymptotically approach but never actually reach 0. Second, how would such a scenario be any different from a portfolio having the same overall AA dispersed into separate equity and bond funds that you rebalance manually? Third, in a scenario whe...
by Walkure
Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cost to develop a city lot
Replies: 12
Views: 1047

Re: Cost to develop a city lot

Haven't done this, but I've looked into it a bit as well. Off the top of my head, several things to look out for: 1) setbacks or other zoning changes since the lot was platted that make it too small to build on 2) utility/access easements and similar issues that could restrict your use of the proper...
by Walkure
Sat Dec 07, 2019 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "The Wealthy Renter" by Alex Avery.
Replies: 192
Views: 20577

Re: "The Wealthy Renter" by Alex Avery.

Here's a thought for a business idea as "aging in place" becomes more popular: A property management service for owner-occupied homes. You (or your elderly parent) would pay a monthly "rent" to continue living in the house you already own free and clear... One reason I'm proposing this idea is that...
by Walkure
Sat Dec 07, 2019 10:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "The Wealthy Renter" by Alex Avery.
Replies: 192
Views: 20577

Re: "The Wealthy Renter" by Alex Avery.

I appreciate all of the responses. I think it can depend on one's circumstances. If one has the discipline to save and invest, renting a smaller place than what one would buy could lead to much greater wealth building. Yes, if one is willing to reduce one's quality of life, then one can save money....
by Walkure
Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a post 1971 fiat money world
Replies: 38
Views: 3210

Re: Investing in a post 1971 fiat money world

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=pEFY This chart shows the annual inflation rate (excluding food an energy). 1971 doesn't look like a particularly momentous time in the series. The more interesting part is that inflation went down in the early 80s and has been remarkably stable and...
by Walkure
Wed Dec 04, 2019 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12630
Views: 2184434

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

It matters because if you believe returns are independent of past returns, then it is now more unlikely that you will get a higher price in the future for that house (when you do intend to sell it) given that it has lost value now. As it relates to this thread: Given that we want to consume our por...
by Walkure
Wed Dec 04, 2019 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12630
Views: 2184434

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

It matters because if you believe returns are independent of past returns, then it is now more unlikely that you will get a higher price in the future for that house (when you do intend to sell it) given that it has lost value now. As it relates to this thread: Given that we want to consume our por...
by Walkure
Wed Dec 04, 2019 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12630
Views: 2184434

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

We made $34.81 today :) . In our area that is almost enough for dinner for two at a moderately priced restaurant. lol, I lost $3,273.. more than a nice buffet for sure 😀 I appreciate you saying you lost it! Enough with this "it isn't lost unless you sell" garbage; of course it is. I would take the ...
by Walkure
Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "The Wealthy Renter" by Alex Avery.
Replies: 192
Views: 20577

Re: "The Wealthy Renter" by Alex Avery.

Several recent posts suggest two important distortions of the rental market that rarely get mentioned in the buy/sell discussion. They only become really obvious in the extreme cases of VHCOL areas, but the underlying principles apply elsewhere. In my area (OC, CA) a 1000 sqft hone costs $1.1M and i...
by Walkure
Tue Dec 03, 2019 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 2338
Views: 188641

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Apparently my rebalance missed the TMF Cyber Monday 5% off sale by one trading day :oops:
by Walkure
Fri Nov 29, 2019 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 2338
Views: 188641

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

My 3rd quarterly rebalance: Before rebalance the mix had shifted from the original 40/60 to 48.5/51.5. Cumulative MWRR 50.56%. However, I am rebalancing on the taxable side with new money only. This quarter's contribution was only enough to pull it back to 44/56, and I can't add more Roth space unti...
by Walkure
Tue Nov 26, 2019 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 2338
Views: 188641

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

You may download the latest available version here: v.3.8alpha https://gofile.io/?c=hA9ZKw It does only simulate SSO, UPRO and SPY as well as Nasdaq, tool was created to find the perfect portfolio allocation for leveraged ETFs I'm getting a message that says "You are not authorized to download this...
by Walkure
Mon Nov 25, 2019 11:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: To much tax deffered investments?????? Put more into Mortage????
Replies: 18
Views: 2208

Re: To much tax deffered investments?????? Put more into Mortage????

I think you're fooling yourself into thinking these are really different options. Contributions to pretax over the next 3 years have to come from future paycheck deductions, not the sale windfall. So you're really deciding where to park the $300,000. You can place it in a savings account, use a mini...
by Walkure
Sat Nov 23, 2019 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 2338
Views: 188641

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Where is OPs quarterly update? I believe he re-balanced mid August so should have an update with latest account standing. I'm approaching a rebalance as well and will post the end of this month. I noticed, however, that the last trading day of the month falls on Black Friday :twisted: so it will be...
by Walkure
Thu Nov 21, 2019 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dollar Cost Averaging or: how I learned to stop worrying and love the Lump Sum
Replies: 38
Views: 3409

Re: Dollar Cost Averaging or: how I learned to stop worrying and love the Lump Sum

In the specific case of an IPO where the investor holding Asset A is subject to a lock period and Investor with Asset B (the non-IPO market portfolio) is standing on the outside looking in, this cannot be assumed. The OP clearly states that the "lock period" has expired. I understand that the lock ...
by Walkure
Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dollar Cost Averaging or: how I learned to stop worrying and love the Lump Sum
Replies: 38
Views: 3409

Re: Dollar Cost Averaging or: how I learned to stop worrying and love the Lump Sum

I keep hearing about how DCA "reduces risk" or "minimizes regret", but it doesn't. You might be interested in this scholarly, peer reviewed, paper from 1979. It discusses DCA from a theoretical perspective. It essentially agrees with you in that DCA is "suboptimal" (used in the title of the paper) ...
by Walkure
Mon Nov 18, 2019 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: OMG My New House is SO Drafty!
Replies: 58
Views: 8257

Re: OMG My New House is SO Drafty!

There's been plenty of mention of the insulation, vapor barriers, etc. But here's a somewhat simpler idea. You can have a house like Swiss cheese or hermetically sealed, but the key is that air doesn't move from cold to hot per se - it moves from high pressure to low. Rather than trying to plug a 1,...
by Walkure
Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: From a US investor’s perspective, are international stock markets less efficient than domestic markets?
Replies: 15
Views: 1313

Re: From a US investor’s perspective, are international stock markets less efficient than domestic markets?

Are you willing to tell us your understanding of the word efficient as it relates to capital markets? Without that it's hard to approach your question. PJW That market prices reflect all information available to an investor. The home bias problem, as I understand it, is this: That prices of an effi...
by Walkure
Thu Nov 14, 2019 1:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I Travel ot Ecuador?
Replies: 49
Views: 4017

Re: Should I Travel ot Ecuador?

We are going with CNH Tours (which was recommended on this site) just 14 guests and 8 crew. Our hotel is Mansion de Angel which looks nice. I'm not overly nervous about going but it our first trip to this part of the world, just thought I would get some feedback. Thank You I've stayed at Mansion Al...
by Walkure
Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 2338
Views: 188641

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Probably already asked? In a taxed account if at some future point one gets out of UPRO and TMF and trades into equivalent 1x ETFs is that a wash? If so, which ETFs? A 1x and 3x fund are not substantially identical regardless of what underlying index they track. Also, you only care about a wash sal...
by Walkure
Fri Nov 08, 2019 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I Travel ot Ecuador?
Replies: 49
Views: 4017

Re: Should I Travel ot Ecuador?

While the recent unrest was more violent than a typical protest (which, as other posters have pointed out, are fairly routine) I would not expect this to be the sort of thing that will recur without a much better coordinated and rapid response from the authorities, who were caught largely unprepared...
by Walkure
Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best pricing for multi-city flights in ANY order?
Replies: 8
Views: 663

Best pricing for multi-city flights in ANY order?

Let's say, for a hypothetical example, I want depart New York and visit Paris, Vienna, and Rome over the course of 10 days. But here's the key, I don't care specific dates or in which order I see each city. So my itinerary could be NYC-PAR-VIE-ROM-NYC, but it could also be NYC-ROM-PAR-VIE-NYC, etc. ...
by Walkure
Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 249
Views: 24227

Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Could we see those long AAPL beat the shorts' 100% max upside by the end of the year?
by Walkure
Tue Oct 29, 2019 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock market index investing - problem of induction?
Replies: 41
Views: 3907

Re: Stock market index investing - problem of induction?

To quote Hume: "That the Sun will not rise tomorrow is no less intelligible a proposition and implies no more contradiction than the affirmation that it will rise." Can't speak for the stock market but Hume is self-evidently wrong. The sun appears to "rise" due to the rotation of the earth about it...
by Walkure
Fri Oct 04, 2019 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 3147
Views: 300739

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Like clockwork. A quick dip and voila! Another rate cut priced in. Equities rally back to near ATH's due to multiple expansion as earnings continue to deteriorate. Rinse and repeat for the next 12 months. What happens when earnings continue their decline with stocks at all time highs, the Fed funds...
by Walkure
Fri Oct 04, 2019 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 2338
Views: 188641

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Has anyone run any numbers on ideal rebalancing strategy for someone in a taxable account? Right now I'm relying solely on individual contributions to rebalance (adding $1k twice a month, current balance around $12k) and plan to rely solely on that at least until a year has passed so that any gains...
by Walkure
Tue Oct 01, 2019 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Non stick pan preference?
Replies: 46
Views: 3727

Re: Non stick pan preference?

We have had great success with the ceramic frying pans - Target sells several in different sizes. We use them for eggs, and other dishes, and never a problem. Cleanup is easy. I love ceramic non-stick. The ceramic is so hard and durable that I don't have to worry about damaging it. It's handled ove...
by Walkure
Fri Sep 20, 2019 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 2338
Views: 188641

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I'd be shocked if this made a big difference in the long-term. If the market on average opened higher/lower than it closed then traders would buy/sell the open and do the opposite at close, arbitraging away this effect. M1 trades 30 minutes after the market open so highly liquid funds such as UPRO/...
by Walkure
Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: In retirement, a $100 monthly expense needs $30,000 in your portfolio
Replies: 68
Views: 7540

Re: In retirement, a $100 monthly expense needs $30,000 in your portfolio

This chart can be made for any level of income. This one is for $600k income. And it isn't exact. Just a way to help convince my wife that if we can somehow manage to live on $100k / year, I could retire now. She likes $150k a lot better. And $200k even more. I might be dead by then. How did you ma...
by Walkure
Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 2338
Views: 188641

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Today marks my second quarterly rebalance (using new money in taxable.)
Stats as of this morning's trading window:
The 40/60 allocation has drifted to 36/64.
Cumulative UPRO: 14%
Cumulative TMF: 83%
Cumulative Total MWRR: 53.03% 8-)
by Walkure
Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brokerages good for tax rates on ADRs? (Foreign withholding)
Replies: 15
Views: 525

Re: Brokerages good for tax rates on ADRs? (Foreign withholding)

I recently spoke to a high level Vanguard rep, and, while I'm still waiting/hoping for some double checking, it appears Vanguard investors also pay the less favorable rate. I'm not sure how many countries this sort of thing might be an issue for, besides Japan. But when I think of possibly investin...
by Walkure
Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 2338
Views: 188641

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

That's what I suggested and that's what will occur. UPRO will sell some of its positions (I believe credit swaps contracts?) and TMF will buy more exposure to treasuries I don't even care is the answer to your question. It's happened five or six times in the last month. One goes up the other goes d...
by Walkure
Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investment complexity is appealing and simplicity isn't
Replies: 65
Views: 3862

Re: Why investment complexity is appealing and simplicity isn't

The other place complexity comes in is tax efficiency. You can be totally sold on the idea of a simple portfolio, but in practice your money is spread across a 401k, IRAs, taxable accounts. Then it turns out the only decent option in your 401k is a SP500 index, so you have to fill your IRA with bond...
by Walkure
Fri Aug 16, 2019 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NOKIA (NOK) ADR fee quadrupled from 2.2% to 9% of Dividend
Replies: 7
Views: 1025

Re: NOKIA (NOK) ADR fee quadrupled from 2.2% to 9% of Dividend

Hello Walkur, Where you read or found out that the NOK ADR fee for 3Q dividend is .25 cents/share compared to .50 cents/share charged for 2Q dividend? My NOK shares are held at Schwab. I was charged the same amount for both 2Q (posted on 11 Jun) and 3Q (posted on 13 Aug). May be Schwab computers ma...
by Walkure
Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 430
Views: 47389

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

He left my wife a good bit of EE's as they were his primary saving plan, resulting in $35-$40k annual income spikes the past few years as he let federal tax accrue until maturity. My take is that people that buy savings bonds consider paying taxes annually on accruing interest instead of lump sum a...
by Walkure
Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NOKIA (NOK) ADR fee quadrupled from 2.2% to 9% of Dividend
Replies: 7
Views: 1025

Re: NOKIA (NOK) ADR fee quadrupled from 2.2% to 9% of Dividend

In other words, suppose we have three investors, conveniently named A, B, and C. On the morning of the record date, investor A owns 1 share of NOK (ADR). He lends that security to Investor B, who short sells it to investor C. The market closes and C is entered into the ADR custodian's ledger as the ...
by Walkure
Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NOKIA (NOK) ADR fee quadrupled from 2.2% to 9% of Dividend
Replies: 7
Views: 1025

Re: NOKIA (NOK) ADR fee quadrupled from 2.2% to 9% of Dividend

Continuing to mull over this question, it looks like after jacking it up initially to ~9% of the dividend, which was as you noted a continuation of the old rate of 1/2 a cent per share p.a., they have now adjusted to 1/4 cent per share at each distribution. This of course still represents a doubling...
by Walkure
Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NOKIA (NOK) ADR fee quadrupled from 2.2% to 9% of Dividend
Replies: 7
Views: 1025

Re: NOKIA (NOK) ADR fee quadrupled from 2.2% to 9% of Dividend

Went back and ran the numbers on my NOK holding.
Q2 dividend ADR fee of ~8.9% + 15% tax withheld
Q3 dividend ADR fee of ~4.45% + 30% tax withheld. I will have to call Vanguard about that :annoyed
by Walkure
Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 2338
Views: 188641

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

because 40/60 was what was initially determined to be appropriate in most market conditions from thorough backtesting. 40/60 was only determined to be appropriate through one market condition, which is all but impossible to persist in the future. 40/60 did not look so hot when you go through a full...
by Walkure
Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 2338
Views: 188641

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

2. I also acknowledge that at 2%, TMF’s upside from here is capped. Which is why I made my AA change to 55/45. As expected, ppl can’t help themselves and despite planning and IPS’s, “switches” are bound to happen. And this is only 6 months into the adventure and tiny $$ balance.... This strategy ha...
by Walkure
Sat Jul 20, 2019 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Press Release 10/1/19--Vanguard Adds To Its Active Lineup With Launch Of International Core Stock Fund
Replies: 68
Views: 7864

Re: Vanguard to add a new core international active equity fund

Do we think active management can add > 0.35% of returns versus the Fidelity ZERO international fund without also adding risk? Serious question. Wellington has a strong track record on other vanguard funds. The big concern would be capital gain distributions. My first thought was that when it comes...