Search found 745 matches

by birdog
Sun May 17, 2020 10:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Marcus or Ally
Replies: 137
Views: 14325

Re: Marcus or Ally

Marcus dropped their interest rate for 7 month No Penalty CD from 1.55% to 1.30%, which is now the same as their current basic savings interest rate. Lol. Only a week after they emailed customers to consider No Penalty CD as a substitute when they lowered the rate on their savings. I understand the...
by birdog
Fri May 15, 2020 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why it’s a good idea to hold long term Treasuries as your emergency fund
Replies: 114
Views: 8995

Re: Why it’s a good idea to hold long term Treasuries as your emergency fund

I can't think of an asset class that I'm less likely to buy, especially right now, than long term treasuries. I use an online savings account for my emergency fund.
by birdog
Thu May 14, 2020 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the impact of online savings rate decreases?
Replies: 9
Views: 724

Re: What is the impact of online savings rate decreases?

I was thinking more money would into online savings accounts due to the low yield in treasuries.
by birdog
Thu May 14, 2020 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63047

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

You guys are going to look real smart when the market plunges...You kept your passive strategy of blindly buying stocks every week even when you knew the market's PE valuation was historically near the all time top AND you knew that we still have coronavirus going on AND you knew we have jobless cl...
by birdog
Thu May 14, 2020 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Income lessons learned from Coronavirus?
Replies: 48
Views: 4247

Re: Fixed Income lessons learned from Coronavirus?

Imposed a target (limit) for muni bond fund (VTEB) to comprise about a third of bond holdings. Previous allocation had no real target and munis were above that level. My only other bond fund is an intermediate term bond index fund (BIV). Two-thirds BIV and one-third VTEB gives me just above a third ...
by birdog
Tue May 12, 2020 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Experts say now is not the time to buy into index fund
Replies: 38
Views: 4509

Re: Experts say now is not the time to buy into index fund

Every year some experts say not to buy index funds, now is the time to go active and it’s a stock-picker’s market. And then every year Standard & Poor releases the SPIVA Scorecard and shows that passive beats active, yet again. The song is so old and wrong every time, yet some people still listen to...
by birdog
Tue May 12, 2020 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone considering Commodity futures?
Replies: 16
Views: 689

Re: Anyone considering Commodity futures?

afan wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 8:33 pm
I heard of this great little fund. Not many know about it but the in crowd says it is the thing to buy.

VTI
My thoughts too. How many times can we keep trying to square the round wheel?
by birdog
Tue May 12, 2020 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Scary" Stocks For The Long Term: Jonathan Clements
Replies: 25
Views: 4178

Re: "Scary" Stocks For The Long Term: Jonathan Clements

I think this recent article from the New York Times makes a pretty compelling argument for why TSM and other mega-cap heavy indexes are likely to outperform going forward: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/business/coronavirus-stocks.html Could very well be that international and value are priced ...
by birdog
Tue May 12, 2020 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now is the time to buy corporate bonds.
Replies: 19
Views: 2220

Re: Now is the time to buy corporate bonds.

Hope it works out for you. Seems to me the time to buy was back in March when the corporate debt market was crashing with stocks and before Fed plan was announced. I was grabbing at the VOO falling knife at that time. I paid back my cash and didn't like the negative real return. This is the "safer"...
by birdog
Tue May 12, 2020 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Scary" Stocks For The Long Term: Jonathan Clements
Replies: 25
Views: 4178

Re: "Scary" Stocks For The Long Term: Jonathan Clements

I agree with those of you who think that bonds are scary. Why take on all that risk for a lowball yield that doesn't even keep up with current inflation? But why, oh, why do people insist on large cap US stocks? They're far more expensive than foreign stocks and small cap US stocks. MOTI and MOAT b...
by birdog
Tue May 12, 2020 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now is the time to buy corporate bonds.
Replies: 19
Views: 2220

Re: Now is the time to buy corporate bonds.

“Purchases will be focused on reducing the broad-based deterioration of liquidity seen in March 2020 to levels that correspond more closely to prevailing economic conditions,” the document said. It listed an array of metrics that would guide investments, including transaction costs, bid-ask spreads...
by birdog
Tue May 12, 2020 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best fixed income options
Replies: 30
Views: 2901

Re: Best fixed income options

This is why what he did was just wrong, who do we get compensated from? His son now runs the company do we sue the company, ask him to pay out another 80k, what the payments would have been over that time? We dont know what agreement my MIL made with the brother, for all we know she agreed to this....
by birdog
Tue May 12, 2020 8:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Marcus or Ally
Replies: 137
Views: 14325

Re: Marcus or Ally

As others have noted no-penalty CD's seem the obvious play for parking cash in the current environment. I use both Ally (my 'every day' bank) and Marcus. Both offer good rates and, so far, good service. Ally has the 11 month lock vs. 7 months for Marcus on the top rate but one advantage to note for...
by birdog
Tue May 12, 2020 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Scary" Stocks For The Long Term: Jonathan Clements
Replies: 25
Views: 4178

Re: "Scary" Stocks For The Long Term: Jonathan Clements

I agree with those of you who think that bonds are scary. Why take on all that risk for a lowball yield that doesn't even keep up with current inflation? But why, oh, why do people insist on large cap US stocks? They're far more expensive than foreign stocks and small cap US stocks. MOTI and MOAT b...
by birdog
Mon May 11, 2020 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63047

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

This is my first bear market as an investor. ... I think that is why I like Bogle so much, because staying the course is all you can do. Quite an interesting first bear market. You're right, though, each one is different. I realize we're not out of the woods yet but it is interesting that, accordin...
by birdog
Mon May 11, 2020 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I am always slightly disappointed with my AA
Replies: 48
Views: 3518

Re: I am always slightly disappointed with my AA

I don't think of asset allocation as something that I have to stick with (or am stuck with) in order to stay the course. As the factors that helped me determine my AA change (age, portfolio size, years until retirement, risk tolerance, etc) I think it reasonable that my asset allocation should chang...
by birdog
Sun May 10, 2020 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I am always slightly disappointed with my AA
Replies: 48
Views: 3518

Re: I am always slightly disappointed with my AA

I'm at 85-15 now but will switch to 80-20 in a year or two. There's something that draws me to that number as well. Given the long term trend in interest rates, I can't personally see myself at 60-40. I remember when I couldn't seeing being anything lower than 65/35. Portfolio appreciation and time...
by birdog
Sun May 10, 2020 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs
Replies: 90
Views: 5270

Re: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs

The Fed has backstopped the bond market in order to provide liquidity. Backstopping does not equal eliminating risk. I am staying the course with my simple two-fund portfolio and have encouraged others to stay the course as well. Does stay the course mean avoiding a 7% risk free Fed backstopped ETF...
by birdog
Sun May 10, 2020 3:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Has Your Spending Changed Since The Shutdown?
Replies: 180
Views: 6584

Re: Has Your Spending Changed Since The Shutdown?

Overall, our spending has dropped.

Less: restaurants, fuel, professional appts.

More: groceries
by birdog
Sun May 10, 2020 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs
Replies: 90
Views: 5270

Re: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs

You are deflecting. Do you consider a 7% risk free ETF "noise" and should be avoided? I consider a ”7% risk free” ETF “fantasy”. You should research the risk-return trade off. The fed’s backstopping is in regards to providing liquidity to keep markets from breaking down. It doesn’t suddenly make al...
by birdog
Sun May 10, 2020 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Scary" Stocks For The Long Term: Jonathan Clements
Replies: 25
Views: 4178

Re: "Scary" Stocks For The Long Term: Jonathan Clements

It's bonds that are more scary to me right now. Especially negative real returns in treasuries. Yet, I stay the course with both stocks and bonds. I agree with the scary bonds. I had a decision to make with Vanguard's High Dividend Yield ETF, VYM paying 4% (if you round up) versus BND with about a ...
by birdog
Sun May 10, 2020 11:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scams that make me laugh -- what are you favorites?
Replies: 105
Views: 13867

Re:

When my wife and I decided to get married 10 years ago I spent hours pouring over the Blue Nile web site (when it was still the new thing) and read up on diamonds. I got more and more uncomfortable with the whole thing and then finally took the 2 months salary and dropped it into a 529 plan for her...
by birdog
Sun May 10, 2020 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Scary" Stocks For The Long Term: Jonathan Clements
Replies: 25
Views: 4178

Re: "Scary" Stocks For The Long Term: Jonathan Clements

It's bonds that are more scary to me right now. Especially negative real returns in treasuries. Yet, I stay the course with both stocks and bonds.
by birdog
Sun May 10, 2020 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I am always slightly disappointed with my AA
Replies: 48
Views: 3518

Re: I am always slightly disappointed with my AA

I'm at 85-15 now but will switch to 80-20 in a year or two. There's something that draws me to that number as well. Given the long term trend in interest rates, I can't personally see myself at 60-40.
by birdog
Sun May 10, 2020 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best fixed income options
Replies: 30
Views: 2901

Re: Best fixed income options

As pointed out, there are plenty of ways to get to 5.7% interest, just no low-risk ways.
by birdog
Sun May 10, 2020 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63047

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

RayKeynes wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:34 am
Still in SPXU with minor loss snd Upgraded heavily @2820. Current EP is 18.30
Are you still in this trade?
by birdog
Sat May 09, 2020 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs
Replies: 90
Views: 5270

Re: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs

You are deflecting. Do you consider a 7% risk free ETF "noise" and should be avoided? I consider a ”7% risk free” ETF “fantasy”. You should research the risk-return trade off. The fed’s backstopping is in regards to providing liquidity to keep markets from breaking down. It doesn’t suddenly make al...
by birdog
Sat May 09, 2020 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs
Replies: 90
Views: 5270

Re: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs

Guys, ballons is trolling. He’s making impossible statements like “zero risk” and “can never default” regarding corporate debt. I’ve spoken with many illogical investors and have never heard anyone make statements like this in investing and actually mean it. It’s been pointed out to him by multiple ...
by birdog
Sat May 09, 2020 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you doing for haircuts due to coronavirus shutdown?
Replies: 254
Views: 20097

Re: What are you doing for haircuts due to coronavirus shutdown?

Kookaburra wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 3:41 pm
I bought a hair-cutting device that I saw on a Chicago-area public access show. The device is called the “Suck-Cut”. It certainly does suck.
Top notch branding there!
by birdog
Sat May 09, 2020 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best fixed income options
Replies: 30
Views: 2901

Re: Best fixed income options

I would suggest looking at the SPIA as well.

https://www.immediateannuities.com/
by birdog
Sat May 09, 2020 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New perspective on active investing vs passive investing
Replies: 14
Views: 923

Re: New perspective on active investing vs passive investing

You don't need a philosophical debate on active vs passive. Just an understanding of rudimentary math..... that the active market is a zero sum game.... for every winner there is a loser. So you've got to be on the winner half all the time.... then you have to not only win... you've got to win in e...
by birdog
Sat May 09, 2020 8:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Marcus or Ally
Replies: 137
Views: 14325

Re: Marcus or Ally

Marcus 1.55% no-penalty CD does look appealing. Any drawback to this that I'm not seeing? Same thing just happened to me this week. Parked my emergency fund in Marcus and was disappointed with an immediate rate drop. Do these major high-yield savings accounts usually adjust rates and track so close...
by birdog
Sat May 09, 2020 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New perspective on active investing vs passive investing
Replies: 14
Views: 923

Re: New perspective on active investing vs passive investing

People have been saying for a long time that this or that will cause passive to under perform active going forward. But every year Standard & Poor releases their SPIVA Scorecard and confirms that passive wins yet again.
by birdog
Sat May 09, 2020 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I am always slightly disappointed with my AA
Replies: 48
Views: 3518

Re: I am always slightly disappointed with my AA

I’m the exact opposite and always satisfied. When the market was up, I didn’t mind having an aggressive allocation. Then when the market went down, was glad to be left with a less aggressive allocation. Didn’t rebalance on the way up so no need to rebalance on the way down. You were left with a les...
by birdog
Sat May 09, 2020 7:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you doing for haircuts due to coronavirus shutdown?
Replies: 254
Views: 20097

Re: What are you doing for haircuts due to coronavirus shutdown?

Mr. Rumples wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 7:42 am
My family is horrified (its even worse when I wear my ripped gardening jeans and a tee shirt).
It's OK to horrify your family every now and then. :sharebeer
by birdog
Sat May 09, 2020 7:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Marcus or Ally
Replies: 137
Views: 14325

Re: Marcus or Ally

Savings rate will drop. And you were right! Marcus dropped its savings rate to 1.30% so it went from top 3 to, well, not even top 10 anymore. So much for chasing the highest rate. I just looked and you can still lock in a 1.55% APY on a 7 month no-penalty CD even though their savings APY dropped to...
by birdog
Sat May 09, 2020 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I am always slightly disappointed with my AA
Replies: 48
Views: 3518

Re: I am always slightly disappointed with my AA

Bogle said “.....I spend half my time worrying about why I have so much in stocks and the other half worrying about why I have so little in stocks.”

Sounds like you're in good company.
by birdog
Fri May 08, 2020 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs
Replies: 90
Views: 5270

Re: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs

Well, I already own corporate bonds as they are a part of my two fund portfolio. So I don’t avoid something just because the Fed now makes it more attractive. But I don’t go changing my investment portfolio every time the wind changes direction. That’s the beauty of a diversified portfolio, it’s de...
by birdog
Fri May 08, 2020 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2007 to 2020: The changing advice of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street"
Replies: 41
Views: 5247

Re: The changing advice of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" - 2007 to 2020

Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 5:50 pm
I am happy with and will continue to invest all of my money in a low cost S&P 500 index fund for all of my equity investments. I fail to see the need to do anything different.
Agree. Simplicity always seems to win out in the long run in my opinion.
by birdog
Fri May 08, 2020 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs
Replies: 90
Views: 5270

Re: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs

How do you default if the Fed is backstopping your old debt and new debt? You default by not paying a debt. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Default_(finance) Ron Fed buys the old debt, bails out bondholders, and then issues new debt from the Fed. Where was the default? You never answered the question...
by birdog
Fri May 08, 2020 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs
Replies: 90
Views: 5270

Re: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs

Well, I already own corporate bonds as they are a part of my two fund portfolio. So I don’t avoid something just because the Fed now makes it more attractive. But I don’t go changing my investment portfolio every time the wind changes direction. That’s the beauty of a diversified portfolio, it’s de...
by birdog
Fri May 08, 2020 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs
Replies: 90
Views: 5270

Re: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs

Well, I already own corporate bonds as they are a part of my two fund portfolio. So I don’t avoid something just because the Fed now makes it more attractive. But I don’t go changing my investment portfolio every time the wind changes direction. That’s the beauty of a diversified portfolio, it’s de...
by birdog
Fri May 08, 2020 6:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2007 to 2020: The changing advice of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street"
Replies: 41
Views: 5247

Re: The changing advice of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" - 2007 to 2020

This reaffirms my AA decision to go 70/30 in retirement vs. 60/40. I'd rather have a bit more volatility vs. risk that interest rates stay low for a long period of time. 60/40 will definitely be less volatile.... but if your lunch gets eaten by inflation then what you've got is a lower vol portfoli...
by birdog
Fri May 08, 2020 6:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle....The Legacy Less Traveled.
Replies: 18
Views: 2794

Re: Jack Bogle....The Legacy Less Traveled.

I especially like Buffett’s quote regarding Bogle. He summed it up rather well.
by birdog
Thu May 07, 2020 8:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Personal Capital: You Index vs Performance
Replies: 10
Views: 1093

Re: Personal Capital: You Index vs Performance

The You Index is your current set of funds, and the performance assumes you held them YTD. If you make big changes in allocation, this will update immediately. Your performance actually takes into account your activity, so timing of purchases matters here. It's the one that matters most in my opini...
by birdog
Thu May 07, 2020 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs
Replies: 90
Views: 5270

Re: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs

The Fed has responded in a very specific way to a very specific crisis. I don't count on that necessarily being the case for all future market crashes. I invest in a simple two fund portfolio and this crisis has not changed my strategy in that regards. I tune out the noise and stay the course. I am...
by birdog
Thu May 07, 2020 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs
Replies: 90
Views: 5270

Re: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs

Ballons,

Did you listen to the short podcast I linked to? I thought you'd enjoy it because it seemed to support your case regarding your bailout contentions.
by birdog
Thu May 07, 2020 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs
Replies: 90
Views: 5270

Re: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs

The Fed has responded in a very specific way to a very specific crisis. I don't count on that necessarily being the case for all future market crashes. I invest in a simple two fund portfolio and this crisis has not changed my strategy in that regards. I tune out the noise and stay the course. I am...
by birdog
Thu May 07, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs
Replies: 90
Views: 5270

Re: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs

You say you can’t make an informed choice, but I’m asking what choice you did make? Has your investment strategy changed as a result of recent Fed action? Mine has not. I made very conservative choices Nov-Feb and have stuck with it so far. Yes, my future strategy changed because the Fed affected m...
by birdog
Thu May 07, 2020 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs
Replies: 90
Views: 5270

Re: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs

This downturn was different and was treated as such by the Fed but it does raise some interesting questions which are posed in this article. "Now it makes more sense why Buffett wasn’t buying. The worst of the downturn was over so quickly he didn’t have time to negotiate more favorable terms with co...