Search found 7 matches

by orphic
Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedging against US geopolitical and economic mean reversion
Replies: 2
Views: 408

Hedging against US geopolitical and economic mean reversion

How would one hedge against, or otherwise take into account in one's asset allocation, a US geopolitical and economic mean reversion scenario?
by orphic
Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 278
Views: 50233

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Here's another but you've gotta kind of zoom out to go back to '88. Also it's similar but not identical to vanguards em index. The main thesis for a long-term buy-and-hold investor overweighting EM equities (within the last couple of years) has been low relative valuations coupled with the cyclical...
by orphic
Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 278
Views: 50233

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

The OP made a great call on this thread, given the callan tables, how does one feel going forward? EM continues to be strong. I think the general consensus on EM is right. Very high risk for hopefully higher than average return. The volatility has been quite a ride which matches the expected outcom...
by orphic
Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 125
Views: 10415

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

Vanguard has their own "fair-value" CAPE that seeks to correct for secularly low interest rates and low inflation...

https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGGMMRR.pdf
by orphic
Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 210
Views: 18181

Re: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

Vanguard has their own proprietary "fair-value" CAPE that seeks to correct for low interest rates and inflation: https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGGMMRR.pdf Failing to account for secularly low interest rates and inflation seems to be the one major criticism of consistently leveled against Shille...
by orphic
Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 103
Views: 8096

Re: Heading for a top?

The idea of dogmatically calling any subjective judgement used to shift an aa is silly. Shifting from 60/40 to 50/50 when CAPE hits 40 something is just plain common sense - same as shifting 60/40 to 70/30 during/after a major drawdown.
by orphic
Tue Mar 28, 2017 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Non-Traded Reits
Replies: 2
Views: 357

Non-Traded Reits

Someone I know got swept up in a non-traded REIT scam. This person realizes that his investment is fraudulent, but the group that runs it is now sending him threatening letters calling on him to invest more under the threat that if he doesn't, he could be held personally liable for losses that some ...