Search found 75 matches

by Kbg
Fri May 15, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

ltdshred wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 10:13 am
I deleted the link last night. You can just replicate TVIX returns by downloading the 200% ^VIX and -100% CASHX rebalanced monthly returns from PV and then reupload to 2011 and then use monthly TVIX for the rest of the returns
A 1000x no!

If you don't know why, you should find out.
by Kbg
Mon May 11, 2020 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: State of fractional stock and ETF trading?
Replies: 19
Views: 1187

Re: State of fractional stock and ETF trading?

Unfortunately I have IB, M1, Schwab and Fidelity accounts so I know most of them reasonably well do to situations beyond my control at this point in my life. For a set it and forget it asset allocation approach M1 is by far the best I think. All of them are functional and work. For those accustomed ...
by Kbg
Sat May 09, 2020 1:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Goal Reached - Now What?
Replies: 30
Views: 3349

Re: Goal Reached - Now What?

I retired my first time at age 52 and it was awesome for about six months...then not so much. I thought I had planned well and financially I did, but not at all mentally/emotionally. I’ve been back at work 4 years now and it was a great choice for me. During my first annual appraisal review at my se...
by Kbg
Fri May 08, 2020 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to pair with NTSX?
Replies: 223
Views: 15475

Re: What to pair with NTSX?

you can take the above analysis back to 1992 by using ^GOLD
by Kbg
Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is G-fund safer today than previously?
Replies: 38
Views: 2547

Re: Is G-fund safer today than previously?

rkhusky wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:27 pm
G Fund returns will go down as Intermediate Treasury bonds go down. In fact it’s been going down for awhile.
What are you talking about? It has never had negative day, week, month or year since inception (nominal).
by Kbg
Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Carrying a big long mortgage
Replies: 96
Views: 6599

Re: Carrying a big long mortgage

I decided to roll my mortgage down to a 15yr...had about 21 years left on a 30 year at 3.5%. I was able to get a 2.25% 15yr mortgage with a bunch of points paid. My figuring is right now I will be able to deduct the points whereas later when my income goes down I may or may not be able to deduct int...
by Kbg
Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

hilink73 wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:49 pm
I'm still not sure if I understand target volatility correctly as I have the feeling of buying high and selling low.
This is exactly what happens...accordingly, I would suggest caution when using short term measures for volatility weighting and 3xETFs together.
by Kbg
Sun Apr 12, 2020 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

If you were starting it today, would you still go with 55/45 UPRO/TMF? Would you even start it now at all? Yes and yes. Is anyone still experimenting with 3-way splits involving intermediate-term treasuries (ITT) such as IEF or TYD? Or replacing UPRO with TQQQ? … Also one question I have... does in...
by Kbg
Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 783
Views: 178088

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

Where one can find the true religion. LOL. https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/index.php On a more serious note, the HBPP has basically done what it's originator said it would do through thick and thin. I'm personally not a big fan of it for younger people in its pure 25/25/25/25 form as it is...
by Kbg
Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Another thing that I can attest to is that rebalancing too soon is the pits. I knew it was going in, but I couldn't help it. :oops: Yes, I knew that before this happened, but the extreme volatility of these past three months has really sunk in how much the rebalance date can affect sequence of retu...
by Kbg
Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using LEAPs to build a conservative portfolio in taxable account with a large cash reserve (SWAN)
Replies: 17
Views: 1054

Re: Using LEAPs to build a conservative portfolio in taxable account with a large cash reserve (SWAN)

One can be patient and look for periods of low volatility to purchase/roll their options. This is a strategy that is OK to try and market time a bit. This also implies you have more of a window than a date for rolling the options. With SPY and QQQ you can buy some way out there LEAPS so this shouldn...
by Kbg
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I have UGLD in my mix and this whole thing has been a non-event...my mix does not generate the overall returns of the main one proposed here but it does just fine in the 70s, way better in fact. That's assuming your 3X gold ETN does not fail. And TMF and UPRO. Everyone is rolling the dice on this a...
by Kbg
Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I have UGLD in my mix and this whole thing has been a non-event...my mix does not generate the overall returns of the main one proposed here but it does just fine in the 70s, way better in fact.
by Kbg
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Ramjet wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:49 pm
ribeyesteaks wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:34 pm
I wonder, by the way, how this UPRO/TMF would do in a stagflationary environment like in the 70's
Worst case scenario for the strategy I would think
Is
by Kbg
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I'm down around 10-11% depending on the account...it's fine. If one studies the good and bad of this and actually applies the lessons learned I believe they are as follows: Stocks and long bonds, not diversified enough You need a big wad of cash to replenish the occasional complete wipe out of an a...
by Kbg
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I'm down around 10-11% depending on the account...it's fine. If one studies the good and bad of this and actually applies the lessons learned I believe they are as follows: Stocks and long bonds, not diversified enough You need a big wad of cash to replenish the occasional complete wipe out of an as...
by Kbg
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I found this thread quite interesting way back when it started as I have been doing something similar since 2014.

It is instructive to study what happens when a position is wiped out with available cash ready to top it back up.
by Kbg
Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Does anyone have an idea on what will happen to TMF if the 20 year treasury yield starts getting close to 0%? I mean the thing would absolutely skyrocket right? Roughly +20%. 3x no decay +60%. The other way a move to 2.2ish, roughly -15% (I'm eyeballing a chart) When we get to where we are at now, ...
by Kbg
Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: "Leveraged ETFs? No Thanks"
Replies: 30
Views: 2146

Re: Larry Swedroe: "Leveraged ETFs? No Thanks"

I use leveraged ETFs and the criticisms usually take some form based on cost, complexity, safety, and tracking error (loosely defined) and these are valid criticisms. They’re really almost undebatable. A better set of questions is how do they compare to other forms of leveraged equity. I don’t find ...
by Kbg
Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: "Leveraged ETFs? No Thanks"
Replies: 30
Views: 2146

Re: Larry Swedroe: "Leveraged ETFs? No Thanks"

I use leveraged ETFs and the criticisms usually take some form based on cost, complexity, safety, and tracking error (loosely defined) and these are valid criticisms. They’re really almost undebatable. A better set of questions is how do they compare to other forms of leveraged equity. I don’t find ...
by Kbg
Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I'm not seeing the "daily rebalancers" showing any good data (or assumptions) on trading costs. Have I missed this? That's why I wrote a QuantConnect algorithm. QuantConnect implements IBKR's fixed rate $0.005 per share, $1 minimum charge. It also accounts for slippage. Over 10 years daily re-balan...
by Kbg
Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding margin to Hedgefundie's 3x leveraged ETF Strategy
Replies: 38
Views: 2348

Re: Adding margin to Hedgefundie's 3x leveraged ETF Strategy

Adding margin to Hedgefundie's 3x leveraged ETF Strategy...

is a really bad idea.
by Kbg
Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I'm not seeing the "daily rebalancers" showing any good data (or assumptions) on trading costs. Have I missed this? If such folks think associated costs are just commissions then they are not well informed. Just did a quick check and I'm seeing spreads this morning of .01-.02 on TMF and .02-.05 on U...
by Kbg
Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

For long bonds it is really about the movement of the interest rate and the leverage from those movements than the interest itself in this kind of strategy. Very low interest rates make for very large movements either way. Accordingly, if rates stay low but bounce around negatively correlated to sto...
by Kbg
Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold and long-term treasuries are highly correlated recently
Replies: 35
Views: 2510

Re: Gold and long-term treasuries are highly correlated recently

This is a bizarre thread.

OP: Looks like more correlation recently
Many replies: Blah, blah different correlations over longer periods

Last time I checked both are possible.
by Kbg
Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Somewhere in the 57 pages there is a summary.
by Kbg
Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 328
Views: 48770

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

Lol, these threads are so fun. Screw the objective data, gold sucks. The rolling returns link was great, no contest on which is the superior portfolio.
by Kbg
Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I got out after a >40% gain in a short period, but I will never "sell" the knowledge I gleaned from many in this thread. If all you take from it is some interesting new know-how, then I'd say that is a 10-bagger itself. So your adventure has come to a close? Indeed, mentioned it a bit back so that ...
by Kbg
Tue Jan 28, 2020 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

As was mentioned earlier TQQQ provides more per unit of risk than UPRO, accordingly for the stock component I use only TQQQ.
by Kbg
Tue Jan 28, 2020 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

As was mentioned earlier TQQQ provides more per unit of risk than UPRO, accordingly for the stock component I use only TQQQ.
by Kbg
Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Is there a good alternative to M1 Finance for a Roth IRA account that allows free buying and selling of leveraged ETFs? I don't mind rebalancing manually. I'm trying to do a backdoor Roth. With M1 Finance, there is no way to do it automatically with a click of a button. I have to go through custome...
by Kbg
Wed Jan 01, 2020 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 328
Views: 48770

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

I’m not a gold advocate but I find it interesting that historical asset return evidence will be taken and implemented in some fashion based on said evidence. However, with gold, a smaller or no allocation will almost always be rationalized than what the returns data would suggest...even if one throw...
by Kbg
Sat Dec 28, 2019 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

. Is no-one else bothered by this? Looking at the backtested data: "High Inflation" Period = 1973 to 1981: Annualized return (%) -9.0 = 40:60 S&P500 3x:Long-term treasuries 3x [yes that's a minus sign] +11.3 = US Inflation Rate For the 20 year period ending 1981 - annualized return of the 3x levera...
by Kbg
Tue Dec 24, 2019 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

. Is no-one else bothered by this? Looking at the backtested data: "High Inflation" Period = 1973 to 1981: Annualized return (%) -9.0 = 40:60 S&P500 3x:Long-term treasuries 3x [yes that's a minus sign] +11.3 = US Inflation Rate For the 20 year period ending 1981 - annualized return of the 3x levera...
by Kbg
Sun Dec 22, 2019 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investments negatively correlated with the stock market?
Replies: 59
Views: 4877

Re: Investments negatively correlated with the stock market?

There is an epic thread here on the Permanent Portfolio you may want to read. I’m not suggesting you invest in it but you will get a good less biased take on other assets than you will from the typical Bogleheads response. One must always remember the US stock market has been the worlds best asset f...
by Kbg
Sat Nov 16, 2019 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Ok, I was thinking it was a pretty bizarre comparison and generating tax consequences for no good reason performance wise.
by Kbg
Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Has anyone tried combining this strategy with TQQQ? I've been thinking about doing a 45-55 TQQQ-TMF combo and when I backtested in PV, it dominated the 55-45 UPRO-TMF portfolio. Right now my allocation is 45-55 UPRO-TMF and I have been in this strategy for 3 months. TQQQ is more volatile and could ...
by Kbg
Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Might be crazy. I also incorporate gold using UGLD. I’m doing the 20-day risk parity look back with UGLD/TMF/UPRO, rebalanced monthly. I then use my margin account at IB to increase the leverage appropriately when the portfolio drops (as it has since early September), so that I’m not “selling off” ...
by Kbg
Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I still have money invested in my less aggressive variant though, but have more modest goal of 1-3% outperformance over the next 20 years. I will not be disappointed if I am wrong. You won't be disappointed? I will be disappointed. However, I won't be financially ruined even if it vastly under perf...
by Kbg
Mon Oct 21, 2019 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Needed: 3 Fund Vanguard ETF vs Schwab Mutual Funds
Replies: 14
Views: 1625

Re: Help Needed: 3 Fund Vanguard ETF vs Schwab Mutual Funds

One doesn’t need to keep a cash balance, with zero commissions just keep cash in something which is a reasonably proxy.
by Kbg
Mon Oct 21, 2019 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A gentle alternative to HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure with 2-Year Treasury Futures
Replies: 115
Views: 13781

Re: A gentle alternative to HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure with 2-Year Treasury Futures

Small investors do not get the same margin deal with 90 day T-Bills meeting margin (cash) requirements as large professional traders do. As a small investor you can either put in a certain amount of actual cash that will likely meet whatever drawdown scenario you are going to use and get whatever, i...
by Kbg
Fri Oct 11, 2019 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Rascott, how hard are purchasing and rolling these futures? Is it similar to putting in a market order for a stick purchase? I see the 10 year has the most volume. Is it more difficult to purchase the others? I'm wondering what ntsx us providing over just doing it yourself other than not having to ...
by Kbg
Fri Oct 11, 2019 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

The 30 is more like TLT, the ultra 30 is more like EDV. TMF is the former.
by Kbg
Sat Oct 05, 2019 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Long UGLD since 2014. 5 years straight in the red, overall UGLD position now up 35%. The undeniable fact is it’s a good diversifier. My version of this has slightly outperformed SPY total return by 6% points over 5yrs, lags by 12 over 3yrs and is +22% points over 1 year. I believe this is called tr...
by Kbg
Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

If one is going to add some gold, then do a direct representation. Gold miners have higher stock market correlation (but by no means a big one.)
by Kbg
Thu Sep 26, 2019 1:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Long UGLD since 2014. 5 years straight in the red, overall UGLD position now up 35%. The undeniable fact is it’s a good diversifier. My version of this has slightly outperformed SPY total return by 6% points over 5yrs, lags by 12 over 3yrs and is +22% points over 1 year. I believe this is called tr...
by Kbg
Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434672

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Long UGLD since 2014. 5 years straight in the red, overall UGLD position now up 35%. The undeniable fact is it’s a good diversifier. My version of this has slightly outperformed SPY total return by 6% points over 5yrs, lags by 12 over 3yrs and is +22% points over 1 year. I believe this is called tra...