Search found 1558 matches

by Tyler Aspect
Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: alternative investments
Replies: 32
Views: 1484

Re: alternative investments

I am not kidding. If you look hard enough I am sure you can find something that can lose a lot of your money.
by Tyler Aspect
Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VMATX (MA Tax Free) for proceeds from locking in LTCG?
Replies: 4
Views: 253

Re: VMATX (MA Tax Free) for proceeds from locking in LTCG?

Selling individual stocks is a good idea to mitigate the risk of individual stocks. I would sell 1/3 this December, 1/3 January 2020, and 1/3 January 2021. Roth IRA conversion: Convert $140k per year until age 69, which allows your annual income to come under $250k per year. There does not appear to...
by Tyler Aspect
Sun Nov 10, 2019 5:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond for a recovering "xen of bad choices"
Replies: 13
Views: 1293

Re: Bond for a recovering "xen of bad choices"

Hi, annu. You may find this thread helpful: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=289693. Tyler Aspect's advice to put bonds in a tax deferred account is often, but not always correct, and is less likely to be correct for individuals in the top tax bracket during a low interest rate envi...
by Tyler Aspect
Sun Nov 10, 2019 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond for a recovering "xen of bad choices"
Replies: 13
Views: 1293

Re: Bond for a recovering "xen of bad choices"

Welcome to Bogleheads.

The most tax efficient move is to purchase a US stock index fund in the taxable account, and increase bond exposure by the same amount in the tax deferred account.
by Tyler Aspect
Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term Bonds getting killed today
Replies: 71
Views: 8549

Re: Long Term Bonds getting killed today

We're seeing the other side of long term bonds today. They've had quite a run over the last 37 years and investors are in love with them for returns and diversification. LTB demonstrated today one of their potential drawbacks, increased volatility. Today in the US, Europe, and Japan there is hope t...
by Tyler Aspect
Fri Nov 08, 2019 7:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need Help With Bond Funds and Comfort Level. Or...
Replies: 9
Views: 994

Re: Need Help With Bond Funds and Comfort Level. Or...

Before buying any bonds in a taxable account your tax advantaged accounts should be entirely composed of bonds, such as the total bond market index (BND). Intermediate Term Bond index ETF (BIV) might be better than BND in the taxable account in the state of California. Bonds in general have a lower ...
by Tyler Aspect
Fri Nov 08, 2019 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My planned retirement withdrawal strategy
Replies: 1
Views: 602

Re: My planned retirement withdrawal strategy

It is common for an investment portfolio of a retired investor to consist of 50% stock / 50% bond. iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF iShares Core Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF I do not know if you want your investments to be valued in US dollar or Euro. That is for you to decide. Keep in mind that...
by Tyler Aspect
Fri Nov 08, 2019 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected Return For Bond Funds
Replies: 11
Views: 1189

Re: Expected Return For Bond Funds

Total return of bond funds includes both capital return and income return. The market price fluctuates purely as a function of changes in the interest rate environment. Is there any reason to expect positive capital return over time? If I assume that interests rates have equal chance of going highe...
by Tyler Aspect
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investment portfolio
Replies: 10
Views: 922

Re: Investment portfolio

Be careful not become too extended on rental mortgages. Paying off some commercial mortgage, and buying a total international stock market index in the Roth IRA could be your next steps.
by Tyler Aspect
Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Duration Help
Replies: 14
Views: 796

Re: Stock Duration Help

UberGrub wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 2:49 pm
Tyler Aspect wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 2:43 pm
Stocks do not have a duration because the amount of stock dividend lowers its net asset value by equal value.
What does that sentence even mean?
Say that your stock is worth $5000, and it pays out $50 dividend. The stock's valuation would drop from $5000 to $4950.
by Tyler Aspect
Sun Nov 03, 2019 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Duration Help
Replies: 14
Views: 796

Re: Stock Duration Help

Stocks do not have a duration because the amount of stock dividend lowers its net asset value by equal value. The stock's total return is more relevant than the dividend.
by Tyler Aspect
Fri Nov 01, 2019 2:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still don’t understand Bond Index Funds..
Replies: 10
Views: 2137

Re: Still don’t understand Bond Index Funds..

Individual bonds have individual issuer risks. Diversified bond index funds are designed to avoid single issuer defaults. Bonds are easy to understand. Each bond pays a fixed yield, and the principle amount is paid back at the bond's maturity date. Bonds held at a brokerage account has a mark to mar...
by Tyler Aspect
Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why SHOULDN’T I open an SAT/ACT prep center?
Replies: 29
Views: 3661

Re: Why SHOULDN’T I open an SAT/ACT prep center?

College prep centers are popular in our area. They offer services using long term contracts and pay-as-you-go fees. The services include: college selection and student interest matching SAT and ACT assessment tests (free) Initial consultation (free) informational seminars (free) SAT and ACT preparat...
by Tyler Aspect
Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to sell off invididual stock investment portfolio?
Replies: 14
Views: 1287

Re: Best way to sell off invididual stock investment portfolio?

Welcome to Bogleheads. It seems that if you sell all your stocks with losses this year in combination with ticker DE and VFC, then you would have capital gains of $700 in this year. Then you can sell all your individual stocks next year, and pay the additional taxes using 4 estimated tax payments. R...
by Tyler Aspect
Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any interest in concise guide to HEDGEFUNDIE 3x Leveraged ETF Excellent Adventure?
Replies: 91
Views: 5242

Re: Any interest in concise guide to HEDGEFUNDIE 3x Leveraged ETF Excellent Adventure?

What are your thoughts if there was a concise guide that packed all the highlights, key tenants, and graphs into an easy to read manner? Great idea, really. And thanks for volunteering to do so. Who knows it might one day become a classic :p Couple of topics you can consider addressing: - How does ...
by Tyler Aspect
Wed Oct 30, 2019 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any interest in concise guide to HEDGEFUNDIE 3x Leveraged ETF Excellent Adventure?
Replies: 91
Views: 5242

Re: Any interest in concise guide to HEDGEFUNDIE 3x Leveraged ETF Excellent Adventure?

Charting Returns of Long Term US Treasury, 2X Leveraged, and 3X Leveraged This chart is from February 2010 to September 2019. Portfolio 1 is 3X leveraged long term US Treasury (TMF); portfolio 2 is 2X leveraged long term US Treasury (UBT); portfolio 3 is long term US Treasury (TLT). symbool annual ...
by Tyler Aspect
Tue Oct 29, 2019 7:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I’m done with index funds
Replies: 201
Views: 20462

Re: I’m done with index funds

I agree that tax loss harvesting will eventually be a wash. A single company stock sold within the index needs to be replaced after the wash sale period at a potential lower price, thus boosting the gain of that company in a subsequent sale. Definitely not worth the annual 0.7% expense ratio. And w...
by Tyler Aspect
Tue Oct 29, 2019 12:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I’m done with index funds
Replies: 201
Views: 20462

Re: I’m done with index funds

I’m having a hard time picturing how this would work. Can you provide more info? I’d love to hear the details. My concern is that your time is valuable plus the additional overheard of managing this. Isn’t there a limit to how much TLH write offs you can take each year? Don't lose too much sleep ov...
by Tyler Aspect
Mon Oct 28, 2019 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any interest in concise guide to HEDGEFUNDIE 3x Leveraged ETF Excellent Adventure?
Replies: 91
Views: 5242

Re: Any interest in concise guide to HEDGEFUNDIE 3x Leveraged ETF Excellent Adventure?

Volatility Decay of Leveraged ETFs Let us examine the price movements of leveraged ETFs. Before we begin we will set up some price goal posts at $50, $100, and $200. If our tracking index was at $100 per share, then doubling it would make it $200 per share. A sebsequent price halfing movements woul...
by Tyler Aspect
Mon Oct 28, 2019 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any interest in concise guide to HEDGEFUNDIE 3x Leveraged ETF Excellent Adventure?
Replies: 91
Views: 5242

Re: Any interest in concise guide to HEDGEFUNDIE 3x Leveraged ETF Excellent Adventure?

I compared the portfolio performance between a portfolio of (60% Columbia Large Cap Index A / 40% CASHX) versus (30% ProShares Ultra S&P500 / 70% CASHX). I picked Columbia Large Cap Index A because its expense ratio is almost half of ProShareoer 12 years of data. Where is the volatility decay? Mayb...
by Tyler Aspect
Sat Oct 26, 2019 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any interest in concise guide to HEDGEFUNDIE 3x Leveraged ETF Excellent Adventure?
Replies: 91
Views: 5242

Re: Any interest in concise guide to HEDGEFUNDIE 3x Leveraged ETF Excellent Adventure?

For me there is no reason to call this the "excellent adventure". Calling it the excellent adventure already assumes a good outcome, which is not warranted. Is there a convincing exit strategy if things go bad? Do you have to wait until you have 80% loss before selling out the leveraged positions? ...
by Tyler Aspect
Sat Oct 26, 2019 3:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any interest in concise guide to HEDGEFUNDIE 3x Leveraged ETF Excellent Adventure?
Replies: 91
Views: 5242

Re: Any interest in concise guide to HEDGEFUNDIE 3x Leveraged ETF Excellent Adventure?

For me there is no reason to call this the "excellent adventure". Calling it the excellent adventure already assumes a good outcome, which is not warranted. Is there a convincing exit strategy if things go bad? Do you have to wait until you have 80% loss before selling out the leveraged positions?
by Tyler Aspect
Sat Oct 26, 2019 2:28 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Using margin loan for house downpayment
Replies: 3
Views: 393

Re: Using margin loan for house downpayment

I hear American lenders look for client's monthly loan payment to be less than 36% of monthly pretax income.

Margin loan has margin call provisions, where mortgage loans do not. Maybe you can sell your company stock to reduce the need for loans.
by Tyler Aspect
Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Negative Interest Rates
Replies: 5
Views: 1011

Re: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Negative Interest Rates

A. If significant negative interest rate arrives I could move to Canada the land of freedom with STYLE.

B. if significant negative interest rate also arrives in Canada I could delay my move with STYLE. :D
by Tyler Aspect
Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 4104
Views: 1170277

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

"This Fight is Our Fight" by Elizabeth Warren

some shocking discovery about the source of corporate profit


Manga series "Ancient Magus' Bride"

subtle and beautiful art style
by Tyler Aspect
Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SPXX -- Nuveen S&P 500 Dynamic Overwrite
Replies: 16
Views: 1178

Re: SPXX -- Nuveen S&P 500 Dynamic Overwrite

I checked Portfolio Visualizer and the fund out performed the S&P 500 since its inception. I just ran a backtest as well on PV (link below) and it's showing that SPXX has had a lower return and higher standard deviation than SPY (S&P 500) since inception. Well that's a conundrum. :| I was able to r...
by Tyler Aspect
Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Widowed and scared to let go of investment advisor
Replies: 27
Views: 3005

Re: Widowed and scared to let go of investment advisor

Welcome to Bogleheads. Target asset allocation: 65% stock / 35% bond Stock allocation: 70% US, 30% international US bond percentage = 35% US stock percentage = 65% * 0.7 = 45.5% International stock percentage = 65% * 0.3 = 19.5% Brokerage at Vanguard, Fidelity, or Charles Schwab Example portfolio He...
by Tyler Aspect
Wed Oct 23, 2019 10:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Leveraging Investment with Pledged Asset Loan
Replies: 48
Views: 2513

Re: Leveraging Investment with Pledged Asset Loan

If you have to leverage your portfolio even through it is not needed, the cheapest way to do it is via ProShares ULtra S&P 500 (SSO). That SSO is going to drop like a rock in a recession, so that you might have to rebalance your portfolio very frequently when the market is volatile. The cost of SSO ...
by Tyler Aspect
Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How buying corporate bonds work
Replies: 5
Views: 724

Re: How buying corporate bonds work

Not a good idea to buy individual corporate bonds. The lack of diversification makes them unattractive.

Most Bogleheads select bond index funds or bond ETFs for their fixed income investments. Vanguard total bond market ETF (BND) is commission free at Fidelity.
by Tyler Aspect
Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New in retirement
Replies: 8
Views: 1564

Re: New in retirement

An example portfolio for retired investor could be:

50% US bond (ticker symbol BND)
38% US stock (ticker symbol VTI)
12% International stock (ticker symbol VEA)
by Tyler Aspect
Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ACA Open Enrollment With COBRA Ending
Replies: 17
Views: 1114

Re: ACA Open Enrollment With COBRA Ending

The health insurance you purchase in the ACA market place is effective on the January 1st of next year. It does not overlap with your expiring COBRA.

The ACA premium subsidy has a sharp income cut-off. Be sure to do some planning of your remaining income stream this year, and the next year.
by Tyler Aspect
Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Leveraging Investment with Pledged Asset Loan
Replies: 48
Views: 2513

Re: Leveraging Investment with Pledged Asset Loan

An early retiree with a standard 60% stock / 40% bond portfolio saw 1/3 of the portfolio disappear in year 2008 to 2009. I would submit that the 1/3 loss is scary enough. It took about 3 years for the market to bounce back, and during this time an early retiree still would have to sell off small por...
by Tyler Aspect
Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Leveraging Investment with Pledged Asset Loan
Replies: 48
Views: 2513

Re: Leveraging Investment with Pledged Asset Loan

The inverted yield curve is a probabilistic indicator of an economic down-turn in 2 years. The yield curve isn't inverted anymore (it un-inverted? de-inverted? re-verted? on October 11), so everything is fine, right? 8-) I personally look at the six month Treasury Bill yield versus five year Treasu...
by Tyler Aspect
Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Leveraging Investment with Pledged Asset Loan
Replies: 48
Views: 2513

Re: Leveraging Investment with Pledged Asset Loan

3 Funds Portfolio 80/60/40 comparison chart : 75% US stock / 25% international stock Portfolio 1 : 80% stock (young aggressive investor) Portfolio 2 : 60% stock (moderately aggressive investor) Portfolio 3 : 40% stock (moderately conservative investor) http://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=1...
by Tyler Aspect
Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds or just use Money Market/ Savings??
Replies: 25
Views: 3576

Re: Bonds or just use Money Market/ Savings??

A typical early retiree investment allocation is around 60% stock / 40% bond. The bond's purpose is not for the return. Its purpose is actually to dilute the return and to limit the losses of stocks.
by Tyler Aspect
Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Leveraging Investment with Pledged Asset Loan
Replies: 48
Views: 2513

Re: Leveraging Investment with Pledged Asset Loan

But your timing is questionable. You want to borrow a loan to bet everything on VTI. The inverted yield curve is a probabilistic indicator of an economic down-turn in 2 years. If you already have enough asset for your retirement living, why make this bet in the first place? You know just with a 100%...
by Tyler Aspect
Sat Oct 19, 2019 1:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Leveraging Investment with Pledged Asset Loan
Replies: 48
Views: 2513

Re: Leveraging Investment with Pledged Asset Loan

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2008&firstMonth=2&endYear=2009&lastMonth=2&calendarAligned=true&initialAmount=4000000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=4&absoluteDeviation=5.0&...
by Tyler Aspect
Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Leveraging Investment with Pledged Asset Loan
Replies: 48
Views: 2513

Re: Leveraging Investment with Pledged Asset Loan

Are you a retired investor? Some young aggressive investors might have a small portion of their portfolio leveraged, because if that part blows up in smoke they still have their salary income to add to the portfolio. It would just be a very expensive investment education. If you are already retired,...
by Tyler Aspect
Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Income In Retirement
Replies: 17
Views: 1890

Re: Fixed Income In Retirement

Can retires and those about to enter retirement still count on bonds for fixed income in the coming decade? Are bond yields dead and if so for how long? Should retires aim for more equities in their portfolios like high dividend paying stocks , index funds or REITs? You are still in your 30's in te...
by Tyler Aspect
Wed Oct 16, 2019 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adjusting AA based on equity risk premium
Replies: 52
Views: 3706

Re: Adjusting AA based on equity risk premium

What have you been doing specifically OP? Nothing yet! I've been holding steady at a fixed AA (65/35) for some years now as I approach (early/semi) retirement. But it hasn't felt right to stick stubbornly to an AA that I ignorantly selected out of gut feel and conventional wisdom a decade ago. That...
by Tyler Aspect
Tue Oct 15, 2019 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bank of America declares 'the end of the 60-40' standard portfolio
Replies: 88
Views: 15093

Re: Bank of America declares 'the end of the 60-40' standard portfolio

The bond yields are low right now. But the stabilizing nature of bonds can continue to work its contribution in a 60% stock / 40% bond portfolio. The proper response is to recognize a lower forward estimation of portfolio return. Just bumping stock allocation even higher can backfire if the investor...
by Tyler Aspect
Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cash or bonds (exempt or t-e?) or what given this specific scenario?
Replies: 8
Views: 631

Re: Cash or bonds (exempt or t-e?) or what given this specific scenario?

The distribution yield can be impacted by if the bonds held in a bond fund has premium valuation or discounted valuation. It is generally not a good measure of yield. Bonds valued above par gives you more dividends, but you take a hair-cut at maturity. Yield to maturity (YTM) is the total return ant...
by Tyler Aspect
Mon Oct 14, 2019 4:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cash or bonds (exempt or t-e?) or what given this specific scenario?
Replies: 8
Views: 631

Re: Cash or bonds (exempt or t-e?) or what given this specific scenario?

You can calculate the tax adjusted yield of the two bond funds using your federal tax bracket of 12%, and state tax bracket of 0%. Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Admiral tax adjusted yield at 12% federal tax bracket: 2.24% * 0.88 * 1.0 = 1.97% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Admiral tax adjusted ...
by Tyler Aspect
Mon Oct 14, 2019 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cash or bonds (exempt or t-e?) or what given this specific scenario?
Replies: 8
Views: 631

Re: Cash or bonds (exempt or t-e?) or what given this specific scenario?

Using tax exempt bond fund when you are at 12% federal tax bracket is a mistake. It seemed to me your portfolio will have a natural 10 year withdrawal prior to age 70, that your RMD tax liability is unlikely to be significant. I do not see a need to force feed Roth IRA; just opportunistic Roth IRA c...
by Tyler Aspect
Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond allocation optimization
Replies: 5
Views: 975

Re: Bond allocation optimization

A boglehead might have a 70/30 or 60/40 portfolio. There’s a lot of thought and analysis that goes into the domestic vs international equity allocation, but there seems to be less out there for the bond allocation. 1) What are the top factors you consider when choosing which bond funds to invest in...
by Tyler Aspect
Sun Oct 13, 2019 2:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adjusting AA based on equity risk premium
Replies: 52
Views: 3706

Re: Adjusting AA based on equity risk premium

In my modeling I have a plus / minus 10% allocation to stock according to a person's aggressive or conservative investment tendencies. I do not have any PE or market based measures. Such indicators are unlikely to work consistently at each onset of large market drops. I do take yield inversion into ...
by Tyler Aspect
Sun Oct 13, 2019 1:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio checkup, simplifying some stuff, a few questions
Replies: 5
Views: 1058

Re: Portfolio checkup, simplifying some stuff, a few questions

Remaining questions: 1) I know I will eventually be saving for retirement outside of my tax advantaged accounts. Is it reasonable to use IBonds as part of my low risk allocation? (Or is it better to skip those and just hold stock index funds in my taxable accounts, leaving the low risk allocation f...
by Tyler Aspect
Sat Oct 12, 2019 10:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What % and for how long do you have to save to replace income net ofsaving?
Replies: 17
Views: 2234

Re: What % and for how long do you have to save to replace income net ofsaving?

I would say after a full career that you might expect your investment to consist of 50% cost basis and 50% long term unrealized capital gains. That assumes if you keep a Three Fund Portfolio with periodic rebalancing.
by Tyler Aspect
Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone buying PG&E stock?
Replies: 60
Views: 5213

Re: Anyone buying PG&E stock?

The lifetime of an individual company is shorter than our investment horizon. Holding individual stocks too long could have their values dropping to $0.