Search found 787 matches

by harvestbook
Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:01 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190889

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Age ranges are dropping, too. Northern Italy, the median case age is 40-49. In France, 50 percent of ICU patients are under 60. (True, they likely have underlying co-morbidity issues, but it's clearly not just a problem for the 80+ crowd) I follow a number of doctors and epidemiologists on Twitter r...
by harvestbook
Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:12 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190889

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

And the link you posted I think is great news if true. If 500K people in the US have this and we only have 48 deaths so far after more than a month, then the CFR is much lower than almost all figures that are being reported. CFR is based on the number of diagnosed cases, not some estimated number o...
by harvestbook
Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So.... is this really "it"? Is this what we needed to mentally prepare for?
Replies: 158
Views: 14313

Re: So.... is this really "it"? Is this what we needed to mentally prepare for?

TheBogleWay wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:31 pm


So if you're sure that we're not near the bottom, have you sold your stocks? When do you think you'll buy back in? Just curious.
I am sure we're not near the bottom. I'm not selling stocks. What does this have to do with anything?
by harvestbook
Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?
Replies: 200
Views: 15075

Re: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?

Also assuming there's even an intact workforce. And quarantines aren't imposed out of necessity. And we haven't even calculated the effect of the coming wave of medical bankruptcies. This is a culture-changing event. Anyone who thinks this is just a couple of inconvenient months is in for a slow awa...
by harvestbook
Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18828
Views: 2631323

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

$500 billion doesn't buy what it used to
by harvestbook
Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing - Should we have seen this coming?
Replies: 67
Views: 3829

Re: Market Timing - Should we have seen this coming?

I absolutely saw it coming. In late January when it was clear the virus was not containable and would spread worldwide (in fact, it already was) and I looked around and said, "Hmm, the market's still going up, maybe I'm the one who is wrong?" I did nothing because of herd mentality, greed, and compl...
by harvestbook
Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How is this pandemic different than 2008?
Replies: 137
Views: 7430

Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

In 2008 I was worried I'd die homeless. Now I worry that I'll die.
by harvestbook
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Would trying to time this downturn be a mistake?
Replies: 45
Views: 2500

Re: Would trying to time this downturn be a mistake?

I wish I had listened to my gut in late January when I was a virus news junkie and it was screaming obvious the worst was ahead and the world was about to be disrupted. I confess I was victim to herd mentality because the market kept going up and everyone seemed calm, so I figured, "Okay, no big dea...
by harvestbook
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?
Replies: 359
Views: 25887

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

I don't look. It's all monopoly money anyway, until I need it, and I am focusing on how to flatten the curve of hospital strain and educate people as much as I can while isolating as much as possible. This, too, shall pass, but I'm worried about the effects of the pandemic on those less fortunate in...
by harvestbook
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The end of cruise ships [cruise line stock prices]
Replies: 246
Views: 26089

Re: The end of cruise ships

I'm not being facetious when I say they may become hospital ships.
by harvestbook
Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Battery powered lawn mower recommendation
Replies: 71
Views: 2471

Re: Battery powered lawn mower recommendation

I am buying a Greenworks model. I got the chainsaw and I'm ecstatic. I've cut about five seasons' worth of wood with it already and it's going great. The battery lasts about as long as I want to work. Green is just a side benefit for me. I have tinnitus and any loud machinery makes my ears ring for ...
by harvestbook
Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:34 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190889

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Why are people worried about travel restrictions when it's already all around you? And there is not testing on any kind of scale. Viruses don't care about opinions. Math doesn't care about opinions. Death doesn't care about opinions. South Korea's already modeled how to handle this. It's probably to...
by harvestbook
Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Take On This Global Bear Market
Replies: 59
Views: 6162

Re: Vanguard's Take On This Global Bear Market

I saw a note somewhere that only like one percent of Vanguard customers had changed their portfolios or sold stock last week. Pretty impressive mom and pops.
by harvestbook
Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do I follow my IPS?
Replies: 17
Views: 920

Re: Do I follow my IPS?

Does anyone have advice or examples on how to handle Roth conversions in an IPS? I didn't really consider it when I drafted mine. I've only done one, in Dec. 2018, and got lucky with the timing but only because it was end of year and saw the space. I want to do another now with the market dropping, ...
by harvestbook
Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18828
Views: 2631323

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

At least we can be rid of "Longest Bull Ever" debates...
by harvestbook
Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:21 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190889

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Remember when the U.S. was the one saving the world?

Meanwhile, even after three months, we still can't do widespread testing. (But hey, 100 percent US stocks for the win!)

This is going to hit the hospitals in about a week.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/c ... elays.html
by harvestbook
Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who are getting excited with the plummeting market?
Replies: 100
Views: 10031

Re: Who are getting excited with the plummeting market?

Agnostic. I almost feel like I should do something, but I have no idea what that would be. So doing nothing is the thing for me.

Although Roth conversions may make sense if the damage continues.
by harvestbook
Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:58 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190889

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

The U.S. case numbers are about where Italy was near the end of February, and look how fast things deteriorated since then. You can believe it's just the flu, you can believe American exceptionalism makes us inherently superior and genetically more resistant and far more good looking, but the truth ...
by harvestbook
Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:46 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: In the future will Bitcoin end up replacing Gold?
Replies: 64
Views: 2392

Re: In the future will Bitcoin end up replacing Gold?

I can't figure out why Bitcoin is crashing as fast as stocks. It seems like a pandemic is the kind of economic shock the Lambros claim Bitcoin is designed for and will shine the best during international turmoil and central bank manipulation. I guess even the Lambros need some "money" to pay their b...
by harvestbook
Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:08 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190889

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Florida health dept is now providing a daily update with a good bit of information: http://www.floridahealth.gov/newsroom/2020/03/030920-department-health-covid19-update.pr.html it is helping me better focus my paranoia at least. Not to make you paranoid again, but the fact that they have only cond...
by harvestbook
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Market down over 6% today
Replies: 56
Views: 5914

Re: Market down over 6% today

So even the "But the flu" people are selling...
by harvestbook
Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:53 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190889

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Looking at that South Korea graph, I'd guess the US is around Day 23. With the notable difference that South Korea hit the ground running on tests, instantly organized an aggressive response, and didn't pretend it was just the flu. Our reported cases are not even scratching the surface due to lack o...
by harvestbook
Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:58 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190889

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

BoggledHead2 wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:26 am


Literally just had a physical / bloodwork and my primary care physician / lab tech both said this will be a non story and part of the “flu season” rotation by 2021

Carry on with the dramatics if you’d like
Well, hubris is kinda the story, isn't it?
by harvestbook
Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Safe to Assume Long Term Stock Averages over the next 25 Years?
Replies: 15
Views: 1037

Re: Safe to Assume Long Term Stock Averages over the next 25 Years?

We use 3 percent real but I would not be at all surprised if the average of the next 25 years was kinda average.
by harvestbook
Sun Mar 08, 2020 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296834

Re: Coronavirus and the market

While I believe the public, media, and certainly governments are still wildly under-reacting, I also just imagine this event on a long S & P chart going out to 2040 or 2050 when I want to spend some money. I suspect it will be just another of those blip dips (if I live long enough).
by harvestbook
Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maximizing HSA Strategies
Replies: 65
Views: 3197

Re: Maximizing HSA Strategies

We reimburse current expenses and then put the reimbursements in Roth (or tax-deferred if it helps our taxes). Our annual expected medical expenses, usually $3k or so, are kept in a 2.0 percent HSA at the bank. We invest the rest of the HSA for the long haul. There is no good one-size-fits-all blank...
by harvestbook
Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preparation for ZIRP/NIRP (zero/negative interest rate policy)
Replies: 101
Views: 7429

Re: Preparation for ZIRP/NIRP (zero/negative interest rate policy)

I'm not thinking of changing AA at all but have for a while been considering swapping some total bond to TIPS. Primarily for diversification in the event of unexpected inflation (although I do suspect we're going to have high inflation coming out the other side, I don't want this to be a market-timi...
by harvestbook
Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?
Replies: 232
Views: 23932

Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

the NBA is really clamping down. I watched a game last night and noticed how many times the players basically rubbed faces, licked their fingers before taking the ball at the free-throw line, and how close their contact was just during regular play. They still high-fived each other. The only conces...
by harvestbook
Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How is this possible? Is Alexa spying on me?
Replies: 110
Views: 8153

Re: How is this possible? Is Alexa spying on me?

We just keep ours unplugged unless we want it. We rarely want it.
by harvestbook
Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296834

Re: Coronavirus and the market

This thread indeed shows the wide spread of biases that exist in people and the markets. Latest U.S. data I see says 165 cases and 11 deaths, so a Case Fatality Rate of 6.7 percent. Of course we don't have enough tests and of course many people with few symptoms aren't being counted, but the US is n...
by harvestbook
Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:21 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190889

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Just read this morning that a New Hampshire person had the symptoms and was told to self quarantine. They didn't, and instead went to a social function and gave it to at least one other person. If people are going to ignore the health expert recommendations, then we are in deep trouble. Viruses don...
by harvestbook
Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:03 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190889

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

So this says there are only 15,000 tests available, and yet we're supposed to believe there will be a million tests by the end of the week. Okay.
by harvestbook
Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Prudent to move to more conservative 529 allocation?
Replies: 13
Views: 583

Re: Prudent to move to more conservative 529 allocation?

Remember, the money won't all be used in one year, at one point in time. Age-13 money could be used up to (and past) nine years in the future. Age-11 might be needed through 2032. I think moderate risk is acceptable. I kept my daughter's 529 at 50/50 even after she started. Sure, we got lucky, but t...
by harvestbook
Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if Fed cut doesn't work?
Replies: 137
Views: 6490

Re: What if Fed cut doesn't work?

I sleep well knowing my bonds will return half the rate of inflation when I need them.
by harvestbook
Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Popular opinion is to sell and wait out coronavirus - that means the inverse is probably true
Replies: 15
Views: 1676

Re: Popular opinion is to sell and wait out coronavirus - that means the inverse is probably true

Even amateurs get lucky and even novices can get it right. I don't see how that information helps me make any decisions. And sometimes the best decision is no decision.
by harvestbook
Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corona Virus = Black Swan, Book Recommendation
Replies: 127
Views: 8300

Re: Corona Virus = Black Swan, Book Recommendation

Pandemics are not black swans, nor are incompetent governmental responses and human hubris. They are part of the risk that creates the theoretical reward of stocks. Since both markets and humans are irrational, my only rational response is to make no guesses or bets on that irrationality and to do n...
by harvestbook
Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: who is worried and feels like selling stocks?
Replies: 254
Views: 18829

Re: Who else has sold? If you haven't do you have Plan B?

Plan B is the same as Plan A: Do nothing.
Just ask anybody. If there's one thing I'm good at, it's doing nothing.
by harvestbook
Thu Feb 27, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18828
Views: 2631323

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

backingupthetruck.gif
by harvestbook
Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 492
Views: 41822

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

"More than half (55%) of Americans don't know how their retirement investments are allocated, according to a recent survey from Schroders. Even more worrisome, though, is that 43% of survey respondents say they don't plan to adjust their asset allocation as they head into retirement" My guess is th...
by harvestbook
Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?
Replies: 1590
Views: 128954

Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Bought a hand well pump and drying some deer jerky behind the wood stove, getting garden plants started in the window. We could probably make it two years with what we have on hand, assuming the garden produces and the electrical grid is functioning. If it's worse than that, I'm not sure any kind of...
by harvestbook
Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article by the founder of Intuit and Personal Capital: Bitcoin is a scam
Replies: 23
Views: 2174

Re: Article by the founder of Intuit and Personal Capital: Bitcoin is a scam

I've been watching Bitcoin during the recent "market in turmoil" and expected it might "prove" its supporters right--that a pandemic and government incoherence would make digital currency a safe haven. Instead, the price cratered much faster than the stock market. I guess supporters could say at lea...
by harvestbook
Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about (temporarily) moving all *retirement* stock to bonds - please help
Replies: 292
Views: 24979

Re: Thinking about (temporarily) moving all *retirement* stock to bonds - please help

I won't talk you out of it. Go for it.

I'm 90/10 at age 57 because that's where I decided I want to be no matter what. And I'll be happy to buy those stocks you're selling the second I get some more money. Good luck!
by harvestbook
Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What did you learn from the 2/24 sell off?
Replies: 327
Views: 22086

Re: What did you learn from the 2/24 sell off?

It will be immensely valuable to come back in 10 years and read these threads, just as it's instructive to read opinions and news from the past and see how perception compared to subsequent reality. I wouldn't exactly call this drop "fun," but it is interesting. Humans are emotional and irrational, ...
by harvestbook
Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What did you learn from the 2/24 sell off?
Replies: 327
Views: 22086

Re: What did you learn from the 2/24 sell off?

That Bitcoin is a horrible negatively correlated "asset" to stocks (or probably anything, for that matter).
by harvestbook
Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18828
Views: 2631323

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

sambb wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:16 am
i wonder if this is a black swan vs just a crash. perhaps it is better to pull back now rather than wait.
Pandemics are far from a black swan. It's baked into the pie, along with viruses and bacteria.
by harvestbook
Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dow Futures down 426 for Monday 2/24/20. Buying anything today?
Replies: 155
Views: 14995

Re: Dow Futures down 426 for Monday 2/24/20. Buying anything today?

I'm confused by the notion of "buying the dip." Is there any analysis or data out there to show it's an effective--or even coherent--strategy? It makes no sense to me. It's purely emotional because we all like to feel smart. In truth, it makes almost zero difference even if you got it exactly right...
by harvestbook
Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Target funds by gender
Replies: 25
Views: 2001

Re: Target funds by gender

Well, you could add five years to the target fund you buy. Works for my wife, who doesn't want to think about this stuff at all.
by harvestbook
Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296834

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I did cut daughter's 529 from 50/50 to 40/60 this weekend. She's a junior and there's enough bonds to see us through already, but with grad school a possibility, I'd feel stupid being overly aggressive. I've been wanting to do this for a while but lacked the inspiration (market timing!) If there was...
by harvestbook
Fri Feb 21, 2020 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The "Everything Rally" Continues - Will this end badly?
Replies: 144
Views: 13396

Re: "The "Everything Rally" Continues - Will this end badly?

It will end and then start again.
I don't see the problem.
I'm far more worried about my own end.
by harvestbook
Wed Feb 19, 2020 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Paul Merriman "Ultimate buy-and-hold" VS. 3 Fund
Replies: 62
Views: 5010

Re: Paul Merriman Permanent Portfolio VS. 3 Fund

He also has a two-funder, where you just add SCV to a target-date fund. https://paulmerriman.com/2-funds-for-life/ I started with Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold and eventually modified it a little to suit myself (55 US/35 intl/10 bond). I figure as long as I just buy and hold it, I'll do reasonabl...