Search found 292 matches

by harvestbook
Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?
Replies: 36
Views: 2089

Re: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?

Bulls experience long years of irrational exuberance and bears get fleeting moments of grim satisfaction.
by harvestbook
Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bitcoin makes you rich
Replies: 49
Views: 3549

Re: anhybody buying bitcoin

Four percent of the Bitcoin holders own about 95 percent of the market--a very small group is manipulating prices, and no one knows who they are (probably not even each other.) I was curious about it at the end of last year and thought about buying one when it was around $1,000 but then the hype sta...
by harvestbook
Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone who started a business what made you comfortable enough to take the chance?
Replies: 25
Views: 1940

Re: Anyone who started a business what made you comfortable enough to take the chance?

I started a digital publishing company in 2010 and by the end of the year I was making more doing that than on my full-time journalism job. I remember thinking two things: "I'm losing money by going to work" and "If I took this rate of growth to a bank, I could borrow money on it" (Not that I needed...
by harvestbook
Tue Oct 17, 2017 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon, sometime, maybe later
Replies: 68
Views: 6900

Re: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon

It's possible we never have another correction.

It's possible.
by harvestbook
Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth as good as you think?
Replies: 29
Views: 3471

Re: Roth as good as you think?

I look at it as a flexibility tool instead of just a math problem-- Roths are immune from forced RMDs so you can better control your cash flow, tax rate, and overall taxes in retirement. Roths also help buffer you somewhat from being forced to sell as much into a downturn during RMDs. Since we can't...
by harvestbook
Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 73
Views: 6915

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

I like 50/50 and have been close to it all along (inspired by Paul Merriman). I won't have the same investing window that Bogle and Buffet did or even live in the same world. When they were beginning their careers, China was the 45th-ranked economy in the world. Now it's second and the gap is closin...
by harvestbook
Sun Oct 15, 2017 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: HSA investment [use guaranteed 4% or use equities]
Replies: 22
Views: 1417

Re: HSA investment [use guaranteed 4% or use equities]

I have two HSAs, one at our bank yielding 1.5 percent and another all invested 90/10 for the long haul. We use the bank HSA for current medical expenses. I'd love to get 4 percent on it. So remember you don't have to go "all in" on the 4 percent if you don't want to. You can also let it build to som...
by harvestbook
Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 2050 Target Retirement Fund
Replies: 11
Views: 1429

Re: 2050 Target Retirement Fund

Not a bad plan. I like diversification. Another way to do it is keep $10K in Total Stock to get the low ER and shift $3K to the 2050 fund, then adjust as the funds grow (add the $5.5 contributions to the 2050 fund until it is over $10K and then shift to another admiral fund and repeat). I wouldn't b...
by harvestbook
Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing Books Debunked
Replies: 24
Views: 3970

Re: Investing Books Debunked

I can't remember which "millionaire" book it was but the central thesis was "pay yourself first, even if you have to stiff all the people you owe money to." The best book was Zweig's "Your Money and Your Brain." That's where I learned that I couldn't control the market but I could control my inheren...
by harvestbook
Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% in bond to wait for market crash?
Replies: 122
Views: 11778

Re: 100% in bond to wait for market crash?

You've got a lot of money but it seems to be causing you misery instead of joy. You really would be okay just holding it in cash and forgetting about it and going on with your life. You'd also be okay dumping some or all in the market and going on with your life. Bogle's projecting 3 percent real re...
by harvestbook
Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Health Care for 2018, Curious About Other's Increases
Replies: 21
Views: 2528

Re: Health Care for 2018, Curious About Other's Increases

I am also on BCBS in North Carolina and my rate increase are very similar to yours over the years (family plan for three people). Next year going from $1,020 to $1,155 a month. I was expecting a 15-20 percent increase based on the noise insurers were making but also believe they are close to pricing...
by harvestbook
Sun Oct 08, 2017 7:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone go 100% Ally or another online bank for all banking needs?
Replies: 61
Views: 4992

Re: Anyone go 100% Ally or another online bank for all banking needs?

B & M's are also handy when you need to withdraw a larger amount of cash than an ATM trip.
by harvestbook
Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 15524

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

I've seen other sensible-seeming projections of 3 percent real in a decade. However, I doubt I will be taking all my money out in 10 years or investing it all today, so the information or guess isn't very actionable. Even if I knew it was true, I wouldn't do much of anything differently. I use 4-6 p...
by harvestbook
Tue Oct 03, 2017 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1537
Views: 271947

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

I can't easily tell since I make contributions steadily. Since I started using Vanguard in mid-2013, I've made 11 percent. This is using a fairly aggressive and slightly modified Merriman portfolio (I use total stock markets instead of S& P or Developed Market funds and I am lighter on international...
by harvestbook
Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Prioritizing investments - 401(k), HSA, Roth, or Trad IRA?
Replies: 16
Views: 1043

Re: Priotizing investments - 401(k), HSA, Roth, or Trad IRA?

I'm weird in that I rank an HSA much higher than most people do (if it's in an investment account.) It's the only place you get the tax deduction plus tax-free growth and tax-free withdrawals. True, it is largely limited in use, but who isn't going to have medical expenses at some point, especially ...
by harvestbook
Wed Sep 27, 2017 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My boneheaded financial mistakes
Replies: 77
Views: 9656

Re: My boneheaded financial mistakes

Invested in sports cards and comic books in the 1990s instead of the stock market (to be fair, I didn't even know "ordinary people" could buy stocks-- I thought you had to wear a suit and tie.) When I left my employer and started my own business, I invested via Edward Jones, rolling my 401(k) into a...
by harvestbook
Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Calling out the not so rich bogleheads
Replies: 233
Views: 25370

Re: Calling out the not so rich bogleheads

My general rule of thumb is not to offer any (solicited) advice on someone's portfolio if they have more than I do. In general, though, all I care about are principles and experience, not personalities or size. I'm here to learn, not to measure or brag. Plenty of rich people are miserable and terrib...
by harvestbook
Sun Sep 17, 2017 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S & P broke major technical/psychological number
Replies: 21
Views: 2826

Re: S & P broke major technical/psychological number

Sweet, time to sell out and nab me some Bitcoins!
by harvestbook
Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?
Replies: 177
Views: 12439

Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

Even at its peak, Bitcoin was only about .02 percent of global market cap and therefore not worth weighting in a portfolio seeking to replicate the world. And its peak may well have already passed.

Even if you don't own Bitcoin, you will own whatever businesses eventually benefit from it, if any.
by harvestbook
Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ownership of "small cap value" stocks
Replies: 50
Views: 3475

Re: ownership of "small cap value" stocks

Isn't that true of every factor, though? That's why there are factor funds: because there is a (marketable) factor.
by harvestbook
Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Companies/Brands You Love?
Replies: 157
Views: 10118

Re: Companies/Brands You Love?

None, really. Most of my choices are made completely on cost and/or convenience. I don't automatically assume a brand name is better than a generic.
by harvestbook
Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you use lifestrategy/ asset allocation funds?
Replies: 77
Views: 13016

Re: Do you use lifestrategy/ asset allocation funds?

I use LifeStrategy Growth for my individual 401K because there are no admiral shares. I like the simplicity and there would be no ER savings to slice and dice. My wife uses TD 2060 in her i401k because she doesn't care about bonds at all but one fund is simpler. I slice and dice admiral shares in my...
by harvestbook
Fri Sep 01, 2017 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hurricane Harvey relief?
Replies: 42
Views: 3194

Re: Hurricane Harvey relief?

Houston Food Bank.

Samaritan's purse is certainly not without its warts.
by harvestbook
Wed Aug 30, 2017 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Perhaps you shouldn't rebalance your international stock allocation
Replies: 21
Views: 4350

Re: Perhaps you shouldn't rebalance your international stock allocation

aj76er wrote: ↑
Tue Aug 29, 2017 4:52 pm
Here are some reasons to hold a fixed percentage of international (less than market weight):

Thus, it always isn't about higher return, but about mitigating risk, cost, and complexity.
And the opposite of those reasons is exactly why I prefer hold international at global market weight.
by harvestbook
Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fear of Stock Market - Is it smart to be cautious?
Replies: 39
Views: 3444

Re: Fear of Stock Market - Is it smart to be cautious?

I find immense psychological value in being out of debt. Given your use of the word "fear," perhaps the security of known savings of $388,000 is worth more than the theoretical gains of the market. I like 3 because if you do both, you won't really "guess wrong." You can also argue that this gives yo...
by harvestbook
Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reducing International Holdings?
Replies: 14
Views: 1422

Re: Reducing International Holdings?

Hardly anyone takes all their money out at once, though. So even when you hit that certain date (retirement or whatever it is) it's not like whatever the market is doing at that time is your fate for the rest of your investable life. It's an ongoing cycle of rises and falls. Personally I see anythin...
by harvestbook
Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I own no international stocks. Can you guess why?
Replies: 167
Views: 13616

Re: I own no international stocks. Can you guess why?

Because the three-fund portfolio thread was too long?
by harvestbook
Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Bogle's philosophy lead to alt 3-fund investment phobia, nihilism, decision paralysis, etc.
Replies: 11
Views: 1336

Re: Can Bogle's philosophy lead to alt 3-fund investment phobia, nihilism, decision paralysis, etc.

I'd be wary that you aren't suffering envy of your friends who sound like they're having a good old time riding the roller coaster of alternative/private investments. I feel a twinge whenever I see one of those "$100 invested in Bitcoin would now be $20 million!" or whatever, but it's just that, a t...
by harvestbook
Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Plan for making child pay for part of college
Replies: 111
Views: 6013

Re: Plan for making child pay for part of college

We currently have $54K committed with one year to go before enrollment. Our "skin in the game" is that amount is capped and any money left over, she gets to keep. her skin in the game is making realistic, practical college choices. She's become a lot more focused about schools in a reasonable price ...
by harvestbook
Tue Aug 15, 2017 6:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REIT
Replies: 52
Views: 3596

Re: REIT

Much of it depends on personal philosophy. I would never consider my home a "real estate asset" because if I sold it, I'd have to pay to live somewhere else, one way or another. I put it in the "necessary expense" category. The only way it would be an asset is if I died and descendants who already o...
by harvestbook
Wed Aug 09, 2017 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40 / 30 / 30. Any good ?
Replies: 12
Views: 1818

Re: 40 / 30 / 30. Any good ?

It will probably work well enough if you can stick to it.

Is it the best? Probably not, but I don't know what is (yet), and neither does anyone else.
by harvestbook
Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Still Buying As planned Regardless Of The World Situation
Replies: 72
Views: 8206

Re: Still Buying As planned Regardless Of The World Situation

I always recall Warren Buffet said he bought his first stocks while the US was losing the war against Japan (which it was, until the latter part of 1942.)
by harvestbook
Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invest in U.S. ETFs Now?
Replies: 25
Views: 2106

Re: Invest in U.S. ETFs Now?

Markets don't necessarily crash from all-time highs and all-time highs don't necessarily mean the market will crash. We get all-time highs all the time. They might crash, though. But probably not.

http://pensionpartners.com/markets-dont ... ime-highs/
by harvestbook
Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invest in U.S. ETFs Now?
Replies: 25
Views: 2106

Re: Invest in U.S. ETFs Now?

They're not at an all-time high anymore! Buy away if you want them.
by harvestbook
Mon Aug 07, 2017 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Tot Intl funds vs Venezuela
Replies: 19
Views: 1964

Re: Vanguard Tot Intl funds vs Venezuela

The economy is socialist. Inflation is 720%. The poverty rate is north of 80%. GDP has contracted by 10% in the past year. Food is scarce; people are rioting in the streets; attack helicopters are firing on the Supreme Court; a sham election was just held which replaced the legislature with a commi...
by harvestbook
Mon Aug 07, 2017 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3 fund portfolio: Invest now or later?
Replies: 8
Views: 928

Re: 3 fund portfolio: Invest now or later?

Maybe compromise, put in half "your way" and let him play with the other half in whatever manner feels comfortable to him. What have you missed since May, maybe 3 percent of portfolio growth?What will you miss over the next three months while you wait? What if we're in a 25-year bull market right no...
by harvestbook
Thu Aug 03, 2017 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Burned out at 28. Do I have enough?
Replies: 62
Views: 9943

Re: Burned out at 28. Do I have enough?

I several times passed up promotions because I didn't think the extra money would be worth the X slice of my life that it would cost. I also never embraced a real "career" because I wanted to be a writer. Now I am a writer.

How you spend your days is how you spend your life.
by harvestbook
Wed Aug 02, 2017 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best HSA (2017)
Replies: 163
Views: 27368

Re: Best HSA (2017)

I looked at Saturna and the costs look good. However, having to do everything by paper and telephone is kind of a deal-breaker for me. I opted for Health Savings Administrator so I could have an electronic link. It's worth paying a little more to have easy liquidity. I hope I won't have to tap it, b...
by harvestbook
Wed Aug 02, 2017 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Will my older self thank me?
Replies: 38
Views: 3246

Re: Will my older self thank me?

I lived the creative life, first as a semi-pro musician and then as a writer and never had any money to save. But when I first started getting extra money in my mid-30s, I started saving where I could and, most importantly, avoiding or paying down debt. Now we save pretty aggressively (maybe 60 perc...
by harvestbook
Wed Aug 02, 2017 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are value stocks safer or more risky?
Replies: 49
Views: 3900

Re: Are value stocks safer or more risky?

My philosophy on value index funds is that I better hold them for at least 15 years to get any perceived benefit or avoid any temporary underperformance. And even then, I have some timing risk on the back end, but I hope to hold enough diversification to not be forced to sell before I want to. Equit...
by harvestbook
Tue Aug 01, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 529 or Mortgage
Replies: 38
Views: 2337

Re: 529 or Mortgage

I aggressively paid off the mortgage over several years and I am very happy with the decision. In retrospect, the math would've worked better for investing it, but at the time , of course, no one knew what the market would do and I preferred the path of zero debt. Yet I also contributed $40K to 529s...
by harvestbook
Tue Aug 01, 2017 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to do with 3oz of gold?
Replies: 28
Views: 4580

Re: What to do with 3oz of gold?

I'd bury it in the yard and tell the kids where it is in case of emergencies. (Assuming it's less than 0.5 percent of your portfolio and you have no debt.) But I'm kinda weird that way.
by harvestbook
Tue Aug 01, 2017 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the "bond bubble" caused you to change your allocation?
Replies: 90
Views: 9911

Re: Has the "bond bubble" caused you to change your allocation?

I was about 88/12 and happy with it until I started hanging around this forum. Then I felt I was "too aggressive" even though I was perfectly happy before and the market dips didn't bother me at all. But I did learn that I should make some small moves (like trading Total Bond in my taxable account f...
by harvestbook
Tue Jul 25, 2017 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 33974

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

International stocks have outperformed massively in 2017. So Bogle "has been" right, and now he's wrong.

I don't have Bogle's time horizon, anyway, so I don't really care how he personally invests. I will adopt what admirable principles of his I believe can work for me and ignore the rest.
by harvestbook
Mon Jul 24, 2017 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone else extremely frugal?
Replies: 100
Views: 8895

Re: Anyone else extremely frugal?

I have a reputation for being frugal. My father-in-law loves to take the family out when we visit, his favorite restaurant, Everyone orders $10 drinks, steaks, etc. I am sure he ends up spending $400 or so. He even made a comment last time that I looked "horrified" and was insulted one time when I o...
by harvestbook
Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrencies
Replies: 45
Views: 3616

Re: Cryptocurrencies

All currencies are upheld only by a collective faith in them. Even gold. I don't really care much about currencies, because they don't produce or create anything in and of themselves. How big will they get before governments realize they are losing serious tax revenues? (I'm quite sure the old "they...
by harvestbook
Thu Jul 20, 2017 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: new Bogle written interview on marketwatch.com today 7/20/17
Replies: 17
Views: 1896

Re: new Bogle written interview on marketwatch.com today 7/20/17

Merriman expands on the interview in his podcast: http://paulmerriman.com/10-lessons-jack-bogle-king-index-funds/ (It's paraphrased, not a taped interview with Bogle) Bogle and Merriman are my two biggest influences. I'm convinced by Merriman's Buy and Hold portfolio and the possible advantages of t...
by harvestbook
Thu Jul 20, 2017 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 9117

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

"I'm a passive investor who believes in owning the whole market, except I'm actively choosing to ignore the markets in the other half of the world."

I'm not smart enough to know and I can't afford to guess. Therefore, I own everything.
by harvestbook
Thu Jul 20, 2017 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VWIUX Intermediate Tax-Exempt vs VBTLX Total BM
Replies: 6
Views: 545

Re: VWIUX Intermediate Tax-Exempt vs VBTLX Total BM

There's more to the decision than just expected returns, though. It's good to consider duration, especially given possible interest rate changes. However, these funds have fairly close durations (5.2 years for Intermediate, 6.1 years for Total bond.) I use Intermediate in my taxable account and use ...
by harvestbook
Thu Jul 20, 2017 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newbie and New Parent: Help w/ Retirement and 529
Replies: 65
Views: 4733

Re: Newbie and New Parent: Help w/ Retirement and 529

As suggested above, I would go with VINIX in my 401K to get that low expense ratio, then use Roth IRAs to add Total Bond Funds and Total International Stock Funds. (I also have no problem with using Target Retirement Funds in all of them, especially if you are prone to "taking action" on short-term ...