Search found 517 matches

by TD2626
Tue Nov 21, 2017 5:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dave Ramsey says don't use credit cards, even if you pay them off
Replies: 216
Views: 11740

Re: Dave Ramsey says don't use credit cards, even if you pay them off

I think that sometimes one has to live in the world that exists, not an ideal world that they wish existed. In this world, credit scores are commonly used (for ridiculous things that have nothing to do with debt repayment - like insurance rates and job applications). Thus, it can be helpful to have ...
by TD2626
Sat Nov 18, 2017 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Largest holding in Powell’s (next Fed chairman) investment portfolio appears to be Vanguard Total Stock Market index fu
Replies: 9
Views: 1885

Re: Largest holding in Powell’s (next Fed chairman) investment portfolio appears to be Vanguard Total Stock Market index

The Time article (http://time.com/money/5021471/fed-powell-vanguard-index-investor/) states: Either way Powell’s portfolio makes one thing clear: Being wealthy and sophisticated about the stock market doesn’t mean you need to dabble in exotic investments. No matter who you are, an ultra-low cost ind...
by TD2626
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: annualized TLH data from Wealthfront
Replies: 7
Views: 911

Re: annualized TLH data from Wealthfront

TLH benefits from a higher ratio of new money to old money. In another10 years the number for the 2012 cohort will drop dramatically. Good point - that's my concern with these statistics. If someone is not contributing heavily to taxable and most of their money is decades old, their cost basis will...
by TD2626
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods
Replies: 28
Views: 1802

Re: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods

My (unqualified, amateur) opinion is that Monte Carlo simulation is an important and common tool and can be very helpful, provided that the model is constructed very carefully (which is hard to do) and provided one understands all the limitations of the model (there are many limitations and few if a...
by TD2626
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why did Vanguard drop TurboTax?
Replies: 16
Views: 3043

Re: Why did Vanguard drop TurboTax?

I think that minor perks that companies offer for obtaining a special status (e.g. "voyager" or "flagship") are just that -- minor perks of tiny economic value compared to the amounts invested. They should not influence decisions except to the extent of their (small) true economic value. I feel that...
by TD2626
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 133
Views: 9121

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

Let me state this very precisely. For me, "holding bonds" means holding a "core" bond fund--meaning a diversified fund that holds only investment-grade bonds, and no longer than intermediate-term on average. Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund is an example of such a fund; there are many others. ...
by TD2626
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally Bank 1 Year CD now 1.65% with 25,000 Minimum
Replies: 10
Views: 1980

Re: Ally Bank 1 Year CD now 1.65% with 25,000 Minimum

Yes, Ally is known for high rates - along with others including Capital One. Yes, it's tax inefficient, but if one needs nominal safety, then I guess taxes are just the cost of that. It's good overall that savers are now getting non-negligible rates.
by TD2626
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Proposed changes to 457 contributions
Replies: 5
Views: 444

Re: Proposed changes to 457 contributions

It's against the forum rules to discuss proposed legislation, but I think the following advice stays within the spirit of the forum rules: As with many things in life (e.g. "don't count your chickens until they hatch"), don't make any changes based off proposed legislation. Proposed legislation can...
by TD2626
Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side
Replies: 40
Views: 2299

Re: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side

I don't think of a portfolio this way. I think of a portfolio having risk and return as an entity. The risk and return of the portfolio can be calculated from the weighted proportions of the risk and return of the components (and the correlations). As a matter of arithmetic stocks are riskier and h...
by TD2626
Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 73
Views: 7281

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

Good points. Individual stock investing is incredibly risky, and few are able to manage it. The time requirements and difficulty, coupled with the availability of low cost, broadly diversified mutual funds, is such that most individual investors in general should not look to individual stock investm...
by TD2626
Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Clements: Your "Number One Number"
Replies: 24
Views: 3601

Re: Clements: Your "Number One Number"

Interesting article. I agree that recurring expenses are something that aren't considered enough. They happen again and again, so they are very important. Reducing recurring expenses that eat away at the budget week after week is an important thing to do to enable living below ones means. Living bel...
by TD2626
Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6149

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

I used to say "just tell me how much of your stock allocation you want to be invested internationally, from 0 to 50%, and I can find you an expert who recommends that allocation." Now I can take out that reservation and just say, unconditionally, "just tell me how much of your stock allocation you ...
by TD2626
Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?
Replies: 24
Views: 2480

Re: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?

The "risk-free" rate is often used in various equations. Sometimes people use short term treasury yields as an approximation for this risk free rate. However, that does not mean that treasuries are truly 100% risk free. A major rating agency suggests that there are reasons to suspect that treasuries...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Personal Black Swan
Replies: 46
Views: 5688

Re: The Personal Black Swan

From the look and time, I’d say it was the Russian Exchange....went to zero. I do not consider that a broadly diversified portfolio - as I specified. (Shrug) It's a fair criticism. I was thinking of "diversified" in the older meaning of "invested in the stocks of many different industries" but, yes...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 12995

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

Some of my current opinions and feelings about this topic: It is important that an investor understand the implications Modigliani-Miller Theorem: dividends aren't magical - they are simply one component of total return. Capital gains are another component of total return. Whether one gets return fr...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 12, 2017 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why pay cash for a car?
Replies: 179
Views: 14590

Re: Why pay cash for a car?

$9/day? I hope that was a long, long time ago. Minimum wage is $100 a day in some states. One of my points is that if you're making $9 a day you shouldn't be buying a $20K car. Actually you probably shouldn't be buying a car at all on that income. But there is some amount of money where it is no lo...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we headed for a crash or...
Replies: 19
Views: 1820

Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

Phineas J Whoopee wrote: We are always headed for a crash. We just don't know by how much, nor how far in the future. Crashes have happened and will again. It's best to design a portfolio and investment policy with that fact in mind. We are also always headed for a lesser downturn, and headed for g...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Personal Black Swan
Replies: 46
Views: 5688

Re: The Personal Black Swan

Some thoughts and opinions: There are a lot of black swans that aren't discussed enough. -Physical theft -Uninsured disaster losses -Hacking losses -Conventional war -Identity Theft -Lawsuits -Failure of a brokerage -Failure of the SIPC -Failure of the FDIC or a government program -Global Pandemic -...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yay, my question was answered by Jack
Replies: 40
Views: 3694

Re: Yay, my question was answered by Jack

My own approach is not very different and just as personal and perhaps wishy-washy. But I am not afraid to present wishy-washy as a perfectly legitimate process for asset allocation. I agree. What matters is not to convince others with an easy to explain simplified framework. It is to truly convinc...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6149

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

I used to say "just tell me how much of your stock allocation you want to be invested internationally, from 0 to 50%, and I can find you an expert who recommends that allocation." Now I can take out that reservation and just say, unconditionally, "just tell me how much of your stock allocation you ...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA: Should I List Junk Bond Fund Under Stocks or Bonds?
Replies: 12
Views: 730

Re: AA: Should I List Junk Bond Fund Under Stocks or Bonds?

At some point, it depends on credit quality. A high yield fund that has lower overall credit quality is more stock-like than a high yield fund that has a higher overall credit quality. There are some funds like Vanguard's that I believe are thought to buy "less junky junk". Other funds focus on more...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6149

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

I used to say "just tell me how much of your stock allocation you want to be invested internationally, from 0 to 50%, and I can find you an expert who recommends that allocation." Now I can take out that reservation and just say, unconditionally, "just tell me how much of your stock allocation you ...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 12, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's your weighted average expense ratio?
Replies: 65
Views: 3230

Re: What's your weighted average expense ratio?

One question is whether those with CDs, high yield savings accounts, individual stocks, individual bonds, or physically held precious metals figure an overall expense ratio. Do these assets have zero expense ratio? What if most of your expenses involve transaction fees or one-time loads? Do these fe...
by TD2626
Sat Nov 11, 2017 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Stock Market replication divided into dividend/non-dividend sub components
Replies: 5
Views: 674

Re: Total Stock Market replication divided into dividend/non-dividend sub components

I've never heard of this being done, but it seems it could provide tax advantages.

High dividend yeild index funds are available. A few "buyback yeild" funds are available.

However, TSM is already fairly tax efficient so any improvement would likely not be worth it for many in my opinion.
by TD2626
Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thoughts about wearing a "uniform"/same thing everyday?
Replies: 140
Views: 8838

Re: Thouhgts about wearing a "uniform"/same thing everyday?

No, but I walked into a Walmart wearing a blue short sleeve polo and khakis and had 4-5 people coming up to me asking where items were. The first two I told them I didn't work there. The others, I played along and helped, told them where the items were. Luckily I knew. I'm glad no one reamed me out...
by TD2626
Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Isn't it safer to NOT sign Credit card?
Replies: 97
Views: 6240

Re: Isn't it safer to not sign Credit card?

If you don't sign it, and someone steals your card they can sign it as they see fit and you know what? Then THEIR signature on the receipt will match THEIR signature on the back of YOUR card. That's why you never want to leave it blank. Why let someone else decide what the signature should look lik...
by TD2626
Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why NOT make more money?
Replies: 185
Views: 14943

Re: Why NOT make more money?

The simple answer is: There is only so much time you get in this life, and making money (for the vast majority of people) takes time away from doing the things we'd like to do. The more complicated answer is: Just about anyone in our society can quit working and "live" off of what they have. Simila...
by TD2626
Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial Vanguard capital gains distribution announcement
Replies: 14
Views: 1687

Re: Initial Vanguard capital gains distribution announcement

I wonder why the Institutional and Institutional Plus Total Market Index funds are throwing off CG distributions, and the Admiral and Investor share classes are not. When it comes to mutual funds versus ETFs, there really shouldn't be any differences in CG distributions if they're the same (VTSAX v...
by TD2626
Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying bitcoin / Cryptocurrency to market cap (.3%)
Replies: 42
Views: 3106

Re: Buying bitcoin / Cryptocurrency to market cap (.3%)

65B into 210T is 0.03% unless I made a mistake somewhere. Regardless: 1) An 0.03% allocation in an investment is absurdly small and Bitcoins are less convenient to transact and hold than an ETF or mutual fund. Typical Bogleheads thinking values simplicity and adding an additional investment to your...
by TD2626
Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Backdoor Roth going forward
Replies: 8
Views: 949

Re: Backdoor Roth going forward

Speculation about future tax law is against forum policy - because, among other reasons, taking action on what might happen may be counterproductive. Also, FWIW, you may be mistaking "Roth to traditional recharacterizations" for "traditional to Roth conversions". I believe that speculation about po...
by TD2626
Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"
Replies: 37
Views: 5082

Re: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"

Chart comparing Vanguard S&P 500(VFINX) to Vanguard Midcap (VMCPX), Small Cap (VSCPX) and Vanguard Total Market (VTSAX) http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VFINX®ion=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%22defaultShow...
by TD2626
Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?
Replies: 35
Views: 2174

Re: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?

Very interesting stuff, SimpleGift, you are calling attention to lots of interesting stuff, thanks... NASDAQ has a "buyback achievers" index, there's at least one ETF that tracks it (PKW) and at least one international buyback achievers ETF (IPKW). I keep waiting for them to get some forum attentio...
by TD2626
Thu Nov 09, 2017 2:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"
Replies: 37
Views: 5082

Re: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"

I think it is ultimately a matter of whether small caps have a higher risk-adjusted return or simply a higher return. I feel markets are relatively efficient, so I don't think a drastically higher risk-adjusted expected return is all that likely over many-decade time spans. More return for more ris...
by TD2626
Thu Nov 09, 2017 2:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?
Replies: 35
Views: 2174

Re: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?

I do wonder what the long term future of buybacks vs dividends becomes. In some ways, I think that it is likely reasonable that we continue in a world where both happen. While they are different mechanisms, they should be ultimately equivalent according to Modigliani and Miller so barring tax consid...
by TD2626
Thu Nov 09, 2017 1:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 100
Views: 21244

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

This thread is quite unique and interesting. Impressive amount of analysis. This sort of checking to see what performance truly was is the kind of thing any investor needs to do to keep themselves honest and know how they did. Is there anything you would have done differently if you were starting ov...
by TD2626
Thu Nov 09, 2017 1:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"
Replies: 37
Views: 5082

Re: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"

I think it is ultimately a matter of whether small caps have a higher risk-adjusted return or simply a higher return. I feel markets are relatively efficient, so I don't think a drastically higher risk-adjusted expected return is all that likely over many-decade time spans. More return for more risk...
by TD2626
Tue Oct 31, 2017 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lets take about the adjustment
Replies: 13
Views: 1584

Re: Lets take about the adjustment

...Granted no one can predict,... Stop right there. Yes. If you have already granted that no one can reliably predict a crash, why try? To believe in being able to get out before a crash is to believe that the stock market is risky for everybody else, but not for you. I doubt this. I think that if ...
by TD2626
Tue Oct 31, 2017 5:18 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: To Avatar or not to Avatar . . how did you choose or not choose?
Replies: 115
Views: 5188

Re: To Avatar or not to Avatar . . how did you choose or not choose?

I find it helpful to later quickly spot my own posts in threads. I change mine frequently if something catches my eye. I do wish the forum would allow slightly larger avatars. Really, only 8 kB? 514.696 MB = 8 kb * 64,337 members to date That's why. I'm confused, is the problem storage space or ban...
by TD2626
Tue Oct 31, 2017 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Efficient Investing With The Three-Fund Portfolio"
Replies: 2
Views: 711

Re: "Efficient Investing With The Three-Fund Portfolio"

It always amazes me how simple portfolios like the Three Fund portfolio allow investors to get market returns (less ~0.04% fees) without doing any work analyzing active funds, managing complex portfolios, keeping up with market conditions, learning about factor tilting, etc. It almost seems unfair. ...
by TD2626
Tue Oct 31, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest Rates Over Seven Centuries, 1273-2017
Replies: 13
Views: 2037

Re: Interest Rates Over Seven Centuries, 1273-2017

Investors, though, are all human and humanity hasn't changed. People are subject to the same emotional and behavioral biases and shortcomings that they always have been - technology and modernity doesn't change that. Good point. But I believe this applies more so to stock investing, where investors...
by TD2626
Tue Oct 31, 2017 1:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest Rates Over Seven Centuries, 1273-2017
Replies: 13
Views: 2037

Re: Interest Rates Over Seven Centuries, 1273-2017

Clearly, the multi-century trend has been toward lower real interest rates — from 9.4% in the 1400s, to 3.4% in the 1800s, to 1.24% in the 2000s. This is consistent with the generally declining societal risk over the centuries, as economies and financial markets worldwide became more stable and les...
by TD2626
Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lets take about the adjustment
Replies: 13
Views: 1584

Re: Lets take about the adjustment

-Japan hasn't recovered from it's bubble that peaked in 1989. Crashes can be as short as a flash crash (lasting seconds to hours) to as long as the depression, or even longer. There's no rule that says recovery has to come after 1 to 2 years. -The Boglehead philosophy says to stay the course and not...
by TD2626
Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard adviser recommends 4 fund portfolio
Replies: 21
Views: 3782

Re: Vanguard adviser recommends 4 fund portfolio

It is usually preferable to have a diversified portfolio, and having a mix of different types of (uncorrelated) assets gives you the most "bank for your buck" in terms of expected returns vs. volatility. Of course, diversified portfolios have their own downsides (e.g., it can be a pain to re-balanc...
by TD2626
Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 BOGLEHEADS CONFERENCE ANNOUNCEMENT
Replies: 189
Views: 27465

Re: 2017 BOGLEHEADS CONFERENCE ANNOUNCEMENT

Did Rick Ferri attend? Rick Ferri spent probably 90% of his time explaining - to anyone and everyone who would listen :D - his "Education of an Index Investor" theory, sort of an investment journey from Darkness to Enlightenment, then a fall into Complexity, followed by the Great Awakening and Deep...
by TD2626
Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency Fund Replenishment
Replies: 14
Views: 1801

Re: Emergency Fund Replenishment

The obvious answer is that you need to have an emergency fund for your emergency fund. That is equivalent to the emergency fund being large enough in the first place for two emergencies. But, the actual advice is that you build up again by saving. The whole point of an emergency fund is to not have...
by TD2626
Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'A History of the United States in 5 Crashes' book
Replies: 11
Views: 1862

Re: 'A History of the United States in 5 Crashes' book

By contrast, I have never been convinced it is meaningful to talk about say 95% losses on the German or Japanese markets. If you were Jewish or other enemy of the Third Reich, or lived in what became East Germany, then you had 100% losses. Similarly starvation killed perhaps 1 million Japanese in 1...
by TD2626
Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1042
Views: 579157

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

N/A() seems to disrupt calculations (like taking an average of all Sharpe Ratios across row 160) more than leaving it blank does. Including some sort of text other than N/A() also doesn't seem to disrupt calculations either. So I'd prefer something other than N/A. You have an excellent point. Well,...
by TD2626
Mon Oct 30, 2017 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency Fund Replenishment
Replies: 14
Views: 1801

Re: Emergency Fund Replenishment

Thanks to everyone for the thoughts and replies. Some reactions and ideas: ... The short answer. In the beginning (new investor, low total investments, don't yet have "enough"), it's simpler to keep your EFs separate from your (taxable) retirement investments. Refill your EFs with new money and red...
by TD2626
Mon Oct 30, 2017 12:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How fast can tax reform be rolled out (in general)?
Replies: 10
Views: 1953

Re: How fast can tax reform be rolled out (in general)?

Tax changes can also be done retroactively. So, theoretically it is possible for a change to be made in December and it applies to the whole of 2017. Yes, pretty much anything is possible. In theory, things could be rushed through or could drag out for decades, and changes could be minor or major. ...
by TD2626
Mon Oct 30, 2017 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 228
Views: 44729

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Why not just look at the fact sheet for the FTSE All World index ? As of 9/29/17, the United States comprised 51.28% of global market cap. Or avoid the tedium and use a total world index fund or get close enough with a 50/50 split. It is worth noting that there is a difference between Cap Weight in...