Search found 583 matches

by TD2626
Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

Furthermore, even if you could divine a stock's future beta, is beta really a good predictor of stock's returns? The available research suggests the answer is "No." Remember that the mathematics you speak of isn't being used to model systems like those in physics. Stock prices are fractional intere...
by TD2626
Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Malkiel saying a world index maybe underweight countries like China?
Replies: 20
Views: 1092

Re: Thoughts on Malkiel saying a world index maybe underweight countries like China?

TD2626 makes a good point but I want to extend on it a bit. China has 2 issues. The first is that many of the companies are state sponsored. That is, the government owns a large chunk of enterprise. As TD2626 allude too, if a large chunk of shares are not traded it becomes harder to "reconstructed ...
by TD2626
Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Malkiel saying a world index maybe underweight countries like China?
Replies: 20
Views: 1092

Re: Thoughts on Malkiel saying a world index maybe underweight countries like China?

I think that you could argue that using float-adjusted indices is: 1. Good, because it underweights illiquid companies or those that have a large percentage of their stock controlled by founders, national governments, etc. 2. Bad, because it moves the indices away from the global portfolio - which w...
by TD2626
Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Dividends Perceived as Moral; Capital Value Changes as Immoral?
Replies: 55
Views: 2985

Re: Are Dividends Perceived as Moral; Capital Value Changes as Immoral?

Is this a good way to think about it:...? Dividend investors essentially punish companies that pay low dividends by underweighting/excluding them. Socially responsible investors essentially punish companies that are in certain industries by underweighting/excluding them. Float-adjusted index investo...
by TD2626
Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

Dude, I'd check your ego and your intellect at the door. The idea that your big brain can figure out something with a year of research that pros have been dissecting for decades is ludicrous. So stop. If your cash is not invested, your "analysis" is doing you actual HARM. It's far better to underst...
by TD2626
Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

I also think you should be careful about "tilting". A lot of the categories constructed in finance are completely arbitrary. For example, one of the key metrics of whether a stock is a "value" stock (assuming you want to tilt to "value") is if it has a low price to book ratio. But surely common sen...
by TD2626
Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

I think you should choose Option B, in part because you think that statistics and math constitutes your investing learning path. The real language of investing is accounting, not math. If you can learn to value a business, and you read both broadly and deeply, you can beat the market over time. Thi...
by TD2626
Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

You might want to think about some of Rubin's strategies for moving forward with the decision: .... Sounds similar to something out of Decisive by Heath and Heath which has been discussed on the forum before. It's a great book. Thanks for the recommendations. I think I will look into decisionmaking...
by TD2626
Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

********************************************************* just put it all into lifestrategy moderate growth, and be done with it for a few decades... if you dont want to ponder it further. Youll be fine. I've always thought that Lifestrategy funds were for investors who knew very little about inves...
by TD2626
Tue Nov 28, 2017 1:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

When I am unsure what to do, I seek the advice of experts. What am I to do when experts disagree? You frequently have wisely said "when experts disagree, it is often because it does not make a forseeable difference". Experts do disagree, though. Larry Swedroe, Rick Feri, and Paul Merriman suggest s...
by TD2626
Tue Nov 28, 2017 1:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

Option B for sure. The real world IS messy. You WILL NEVER get to the bottom of things. If you want to read something valuable, start with complexity theory/chaos theory rather than with arcane investment porn. You will rapidly realize that predicting10,20,30, 50 years into the future is useless, a...
by TD2626
Tue Nov 28, 2017 1:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

:D Everybody think's they're "rational". So convenient a thing it is to be a reasonable creature, since it enables one to find or make a reason for every thing one has a mind to do. Maybe the "rational" thing to do, is to decide what portfolio you want to hold, and then filter out all the obviously...
by TD2626
Tue Nov 28, 2017 12:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling VTSMX (VG Total Stock Market Index)
Replies: 7
Views: 1683

Re: Selling VTSMX (VG Total Stock Market Index)

Grabiner - what about interest earned on delayed taxes? Is this a consideration? If you sell in late December 2017, taxes need paid in April 2018, whereas if you sell in January 2018, couldn't payment of taxes could be delayed to April 2019 by making use IRS "safe harbor" rules? (I am not an expert...
by TD2626
Tue Nov 28, 2017 12:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

Since dbr is quoting Alice in Wonderland , I'll add my favorite quote also which seems instructive at this point: The White Rabbit put on his spectacles. `Where shall I begin, please your Majesty?' he asked. `Begin at the beginning,' the King said gravely, `and go on till you come to the end: then ...
by TD2626
Tue Nov 28, 2017 12:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

Nisiprius: Riddle: was Markowitz acting wisely or foolishly? Very difficult riddle. I had to think about this one for a while. My answer (TD2626): There is a 36.43% chance that he was acting wisely. Ha-ha, good one. Another one: what is the probability that you have been out of engineering school f...
by TD2626
Mon Nov 27, 2017 11:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

. . . I'm amazed that you have a 25-page IPS but you have no goals. Is your IPS a notebook of how investing works? An IPS should be focused on you, your goals, and how to get there. Lots of people write long and complicated IPSs that are mixed with personal beliefs and lifestyle choices and narrati...
by TD2626
Mon Nov 27, 2017 11:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

TD2626, there were several reasons for my New 'Doo thread. I consider the "New 'Doo thread to be one of the most interesting and important "classic" threads I've seen on this site. It's great that you've done this analysis and tracked things so closely. Regarding the actual results, it's hard to kn...
by TD2626
Mon Nov 27, 2017 9:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

Now that I've read that you are going to act today decisively and without delay, I wanted to go back to your statement My answer: There is a 36.43% chance that he was acting wisely. How would you answer this? Best statistics question ever I guess I would complain to the test proctor that the questi...
by TD2626
Mon Nov 27, 2017 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 121
Views: 9603

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

Be careful backtesting with short time periods. While that's an interesting backtest, 4 years is nowhere near enough to evaluate something like this in my opinion. I usually try to perform multi-decade backtests. I feel that hasn't been around long enough to backtest that far back in the past is us...
by TD2626
Mon Nov 27, 2017 2:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling VTSMX (VG Total Stock Market Index)
Replies: 7
Views: 1683

Re: Selling VTSMX (VG Total Stock Market Index)

It is likely to be irrelevant whether you sell before or after the distribution, because your capital gain will decrease by the amount of the distribution, and both will be taxed at the same rate if the dividend is 100% qualified. And even if it isn't a wash, the difference is trivial; the December...
by TD2626
Mon Nov 27, 2017 1:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How your FA, insurance agent, your community reacts when you show your financial knowledge?
Replies: 39
Views: 4540

Re: How your FA, insurance agent, your community reacts when you show your financial knowledge?

I was talking with an insurance salesman and in the conversation I said something like “from an actuarial perspective” and he almost fainted. He said almost no client knows the a-word. I wound up buying DI insurance from him. Wow. Buying insurance and not considering the actuarial perspective seems...
by TD2626
Mon Nov 27, 2017 1:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: "The Enemy of a Good Plan"

However, in the here and now you must actually invest in something , and choose from actual existing alternatives based on the knowledge you have. The question is: have you found any evidence to justify going beyond the simple broad index funds? What are you going to do now , even if you continue y...
by TD2626
Mon Nov 27, 2017 1:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

If knowing everything is impossible, then getting to the bottom of things and achieving perfection is impossible. As amount of time spent working on optimizing approaches infinity, you get closer and closer to perfection and eventually achieve a state of being "virtually perfect" which would likely...
by TD2626
Mon Nov 27, 2017 12:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

Jason Zweig has an interesting story about Harry Markowitz. Markowitz is the economist who won the Nobel Prize for developing modern portfolio theory. I'm going to quote from a New York Times blog posting ; the article, in turn, is referring to Zweig's Your Money or Your Brain : “There is a story i...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 26, 2017 10:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

A "quant" genius can just use index ETFs and do all the market timing they want to create "alpha". That is, it is possible to actively manage index funds and index ETFs in one's portfolio to take advantage of other investors who require "peace of mind" and "sleeping well at night" with their portfo...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 26, 2017 9:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: "The Enemy of a Good Plan"

TD2626: The enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan. -- Jack Bogle Consider The Three-Fund Portfolio Best wishes. Taylor My main concern at this point is this basic tenant of common sense: "If it sounds too good to be true, it very likely is". It's what keeps me from investing in anythi...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 26, 2017 7:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

Keep it simple. How to win the 'losers game' . If you were determined to become a successful trader or professional securities investor, I think you need to have a certain passion and desire for it where I don't think you would be coming here looking for people to talk you out of it. Even among the...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 26, 2017 7:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

Thank you for your in depth reply. I put my a few comments in green. Although I have no formal background in this area, I have been reading the forum a lot trying to get to the bottom of investing in hopes of better managing my own investments and better being able to help family members when they ...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 26, 2017 6:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

Furthermore, any regularity in economics that can be discovered by mathematical analysis can be employed to make money only until it causes enough change in the data that the assumptions are no longer valid, e.g., by driving up the price of the underpriced asset. I don't think that this is always t...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 26, 2017 6:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

well, youll never know as much as i do....but i will never know if you would have been correct. and both of those statements cant be proven. One issue is that no statements can easily be proven after the fact. You'd think that "how it turns out" would be the final arbiter but that's not the case. E...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 26, 2017 5:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

I think the origin of a lot of this hope that finance can be made into a precise science might lie in the fact that the raw data is exact. The price at which I buy a security is exactly what I pay; the dividend paid out per share is exactly the dividend paid; the number of shares I own is exactly t...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 26, 2017 5:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

I remember feeling the same way a while back. I actually bought individual stocks thinking I would try various strategies. I spent a year on the strategies and realized I needed to know the future to get the best results. I gave up as the time commitment was too high. I have spent more time than I ...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

Here's Morgan Housel, one of the better financial writers, on "Why Rules of Thumb Beat Precision." It was originally posted on the forum some time ago by Taylor Larimore. Housel notes that some fields work with amazing precision and are "governed by pure math and physics and aren't burdened by the ...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

Everything you need to know can be found in The Boglehead's Guide to Investing. Implement that. Everything else is an intellectual circus game, to be enjoyed if that's your cup of tea. But don't let that get in the way of making real money. I remember when reading this how much was not mentioned - ...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

You may be letting the tail wag the dog. Figure out what your goal is, or goals are, for your portfolio. Then figure out a level of risk that makes you comfortable. For instance, can you handle a 75% drop in stocks without selling in a panic if your portfolio is 70% stocks? What about a 50% drop wi...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

. . . That's the thing - I need to find a good portfolio and settle on it -- and never fool with it. The issue is since the decision must be permanent (e.g. buy and hold forever) it's hard to ever make any decision since it can't be reversed. Paul There is no "never fool with it" or "permanency" or...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 26, 2017 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds: Why?
Replies: 29
Views: 2283

Re: Bonds: Why?

Yes, you can loose out in CDs. If within FDIC limits, there isn't really any nominal (pre-inflation adjusted) risk, but there is real (inflation adjusted) risk. You could be locked into a low yielding CD for years and loose money to inflation. Further, if interest rates rise, you could be locked int...
by TD2626
Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 121
Views: 9603

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

I think the point about "diversification" comes down to different definitions of the term. Think of it like the difference between market-cap weighting and equal-weighting in stock funds. Cap weighted funds buy an equal percentage stake in each company, while equal weight funds put an equal number o...
by TD2626
Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 121
Views: 9603

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

I don't understand the constant attack on those who wish to tilt to something other than the three fund portfolio. Its as if the three fund portfolio is the scared cow . There are post after post after post where people how bring up factors and are attacked. No wonder Larry left. I personally apolo...
by TD2626
Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

Thank you for your response and ideas. Option B for me. I "capitulated" long ago. I don't know if you've ever read any of Patrick O'Brian's Aubrey/Maturin novels, but I would draw an analogy between investing and medicine as of 1800. Back then, there was an extraordinary amount to "know" and the fic...
by TD2626
Sat Nov 25, 2017 9:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

Thanks so much for all the responses! A few replies: ********************************************************* All engines stop. Option B is a no brainer! Good luck, Merry Christmas, and thanks for reading. Yes, at some point I do realize that I need to stop the analysis paralysis and simplify. ****...
by TD2626
Sat Nov 25, 2017 9:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

OP, what is your definition of a perfect portfolio? - Maximum return (regardless of risk)? Minimum risk (regardless of return)? Or, some combination of the two? I wish it could be maximum expected return regardless of risk, but after reading Market Timer's historical thread for the third time (and ...
by TD2626
Sat Nov 25, 2017 8:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

********************************************************* This thread is now in the Personal Finance (Not Investing) forum (behavioral finance). Option B: Keep it simple and never look at your portfolio until the end of the year. Thanks for the recommendation. Sorry for not putting it in the right f...
by TD2626
Sat Nov 25, 2017 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 134
Views: 8613

Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

Although I have no formal background in this area, I have been reading the forum a lot trying to get to the bottom of investing in hopes of better managing my own investments and better being able to help family members when they have questions. I told myself about 6 months ago I’d get to the bottom...
by TD2626
Sat Nov 25, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How Does Real Estate Affect Asset Allocation?
Replies: 34
Views: 2195

Re: How Does Real Estate Affect Asset Allocation?

It depends and is ultimately personal and people seem to have diferent opinions.

My opinion is that real estate held for personal use amd enjoyment shouldn't be in AA and reits are better for investment than individual pieces of real estate.
by TD2626
Fri Nov 24, 2017 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ - Wall St. Predictions Wrong Again
Replies: 7
Views: 1534

Re: WSJ - Wall St. Predictions Wrong Again

Just goes to show the phrase - "nobody knows nuthing" holds true.

Market timing is futile and could easily harm returns. Bogleheads generally invest using a buy and hold philosophy.
by TD2626
Fri Nov 24, 2017 9:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thankful for the Debt we Took - Should we Try Again?
Replies: 95
Views: 8885

Re: Thankful for the Debt we Took - Should we Try Again?

Not so long ago, our family considered debt very negatively. As a result, we saved for many years to buy our first home without any loan. Just before we bought our home in 2009, a retirement consultant from TIAA convinced us to finance 80% of the purchase by a mortgage and put remaining $200K that ...
by TD2626
Fri Nov 24, 2017 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does everyone keep increasing their international stock %?
Replies: 101
Views: 8766

Re: Why does everyone keep increasing their international stock %?

Because the correct allocation is the one that approximates the market portfolio (which is about 55% international), but there is still a lot of home bias that people are getting over. Investing in international has exchange rate risk so you need to be right about the investment performance and rig...
by TD2626
Fri Nov 24, 2017 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 213
Views: 15961

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

I try my best not to worry about things beyond my control. (what the stock market is doing is one of those things that is beyond my control) Best advice. I think having a coherent investment plan also helps. I don't worry about things I cannot control. Every month when I get paid, I'll contribute 2...
by TD2626
Fri Nov 24, 2017 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 121
Views: 9603

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

Dave, Can you give me a comparative alt portfolio (including MOM, Reinsurance etc.) to a 60:40 three fund one. I really want to follow this prospectively. The alt portfolio has good 'science' but I'm skeptical of costs, implementation and performance in the next bear market and and I'm not even goi...