Search found 295 matches

by venkman
Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Survivorship bias and stock for the long term
Replies: 4
Views: 595

Re: Survivorship bias and stock for the long term

If we use Jack Bogle's formula, then: Stock market returns = Dividends + Earnings Growth +/- Speculative Return. Over time, speculative return will go up and down, but (in theory) should circulate around a mean P/E value. Over the very long term, speculative return should average out to close to zer...
by venkman
Sun Nov 19, 2017 10:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Registered Investment Advisor Registration?
Replies: 1
Views: 192

Re: Registered Investment Advisor Registration?

If you're giving investment advice in exchange for compensation, you need to pass the test and register. Even if the compensation is non-monetary. (e.g. "I'll help you with your portfolio if you help me install my new garbage disposal.") If you do it completely for free, you don't have to register. ...
by venkman
Sun Nov 19, 2017 10:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What we don't know
Replies: 42
Views: 2796

Re: What we don't know

I think if you had to sum up in one sentence what we "know" on these forums, this quote from Jack Bogle nails it:
"While an index-driven strategy may not be the best investment strategy ever devised, the number of investment strategies that are worse is infinite.”
by venkman
Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Me Complete the Bogleheads Transition
Replies: 13
Views: 1451

Re: Help Me Compete the Bogleheads Transition

2. Assuming the answer to question 1 is sell (thereby having no REIT allocation going forward), is the following allocation appropriate? S&P 500 – 34% Midcap – 8% Smallcap – 12% International – 36% Bonds – 10% I am modeling this off of the Vanguard Target Retirement 2045 Fund (VTIVX). I don’t know ...
by venkman
Fri Nov 17, 2017 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with portfolio / Gathering collective wisdom
Replies: 8
Views: 695

Re: Help with portfolio / Gathering collective wisdom

Questions: 1. I think I would like to build 3 fund portfolio (stock, international, bond, +/- REIT) - should I switch out VFIAX for Total Stock Market fund? The general consensus here is that a Total Stock Market fund is the preferred choice for the 3-fund portfolio, but an S&P 500 fund is perfectl...
by venkman
Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Finance Simplicity
Replies: 36
Views: 1895

Re: Finance Simplicity

jharri1271 wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:00 pm
Savings is in a high yield credit union account. My checking account does not pay any interest. My savings account (Alliant Credit Union) does.
So....you're saying it's worth adding some complexity if it results in you ending up with more money? :D
by venkman
Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Finance Simplicity
Replies: 36
Views: 1895

Re: Finance Simplicity

Conventional wisdom is have a savings account to pay for emergencies - car repairs, refrigerator goes out, etc. A person may not always have the cash in their checking account to pay for these. If you keep your emergency fund in checking and don't spend it, why wouldn't it be there when an emergenc...
by venkman
Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Finance Simplicity
Replies: 36
Views: 1895

Re: Finance Simplicity

Has any one just decided to just [(removed) --admin LadyGeek] go simple. 1. Checking Account to pay bills and deposits for paychecks 2. High Yield savings Account for Emergency Savings Why do you need a checking AND a savings account? You could just keep your emergency fund in the checking account;...
by venkman
Thu Nov 16, 2017 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Luxury Index Funds
Replies: 12
Views: 1648

Re: Luxury Index Funds

I agree that it's silly to spend extra money when you don't have to, but 0.15% is probably not enough to tip the scales if one prefers the higher-ER fund. Your overall return in a given year could easily vary by 15 basis points based entirely on whatever date you happen to pick for rebalancing (or, ...
by venkman
Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The passive investing trap
Replies: 23
Views: 4417

Re: The passive investing trap

The main point of that article seems to be, "Investors tend to engage in irrational and/or risky behavior. Therefore, index funds are bad." However, the real goal of any investment advisor is not to “beat the index” on the way up, but rather to protect capital on the “way down.” This kinda seems lik...
by venkman
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving returns on total bond market without changing the risk profile
Replies: 8
Views: 1141

Re: Improving returns on total bond market without changing the risk profile

I don't know how accurately his 3-fund mimics TBM (it seems like the 3 funds are lacking in long term bonds). But the current makeup of VBMFX is not necessarily the same as the historical makeup. I can't find actual historic numbers, but I do remember Larry Swedroe's bond book (2006-ish) noted that ...
by venkman
Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help deciding between Wellesley and 4 Corporate Bond Index Funds
Replies: 14
Views: 1547

Re: Help deciding between Wellesley and 4 Corporate Bond Index Funds

If your primary concern is capital preservation, I wouldn't go for anything more than CD's or short-term bonds--with at least half in Treasuries. You might almost keep up with inflation. It sounds like what you're really looking for is an investment that offers capital preservation, but with a decen...
by venkman
Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett 90/10 Portfolio vs Target Retirement
Replies: 29
Views: 3240

Re: Buffett 90/10 Portfolio vs Target Retirement

So currently I have 90% of my assets in the S&P 500 and 10% in cash. For some reason this is making me nervous. Something about not having international diversification makes me uneasy. At the same time though Warren Buffett and Jack Bogle are great and accomplished people who recommend a US only p...
by venkman
Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Flight to Quality:” the old way of thinking?
Replies: 16
Views: 1496

Re: “Flight to Quality:” the old way of thinking?

US government debt obligations are considered the least risky of investments. To pay back its obligations the government can always raise taxes or print more money. The short term 1 year treasuries are considered the riskless asset. When things in the investing world get scary, investors will want ...
by venkman
Sun Nov 12, 2017 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My favorite bond portfolio
Replies: 19
Views: 2610

Re: My favorite bond portfolio

dkturner wrote:
Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:47 am
"Added complexity"? Most people can deal with two additional bond funds by setting aside about 15 minutes a year.
I didn't say it was a lot of added complexity. :happy

But on the flip side, how much more yield are you going to get for that extra 15 minutes?
by venkman
Sun Nov 12, 2017 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to start investing?
Replies: 15
Views: 856

Re: Where to start investing?

I recommend you open an account with Vanguard and invest in their Total Stock Market mutual fund (VTSMX). The minimum investment is $3,000, and you can purchase fractional shares; so you can purchase the full amount you have to invest without having to worry about a whole number of shares. The gener...
by venkman
Sun Nov 12, 2017 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Populating a spread sheet with Investing date
Replies: 6
Views: 609

Re: Populating a spread sheet with Investing date

There's a long thread about this, which is still going on, I think:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=218779
by venkman
Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: LifeStrategy Fund in Taxable account
Replies: 16
Views: 1425

Re: LifeStrategy Fund in Taxable account

My parents are nearing the age where they will need to start taking Required Minimum Distributions (RMD) and it seems like they don’t need the money to live on, so they will likely just reinvest the money in a taxable account. They currently have their money in a Traditional IRA, Vanguard LifeStrat...
by venkman
Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My favorite bond portfolio
Replies: 19
Views: 2610

Re: My favorite bond portfolio

I am intrigued however by having the 3 different funds instead of 1 Total Bond Fund, for the fact that these 3 bond funds will behave in different ways at different times, and it might be nice to have your choice of fund to pull from, in the event that you want to rebalance, or you need to withdraw...
by venkman
Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Target fund replacement with access to Admiral shares
Replies: 11
Views: 1243

Re: Target fund replacement with access to Admiral shares

Hello, With the new changes to 403(b) accounts and the Newport Group I have been considering buying a fund(s) that offer Admiral shares. I presently have VTHRX and like the allocation as it is right now, as well as its simplicity. I was hoping folks could suggest an alternative fund(s) with similar...
by venkman
Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much does diligent rebalancing add to a portfolio?
Replies: 35
Views: 2296

Re: How much does diligent rebalancing add to a portfolio?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-right-way-to-rebalance-your-portfolio-2014-02-18 "The results are reasonably intuitive. They support the suspicion that paying too much attention to the market, by rebalancing every month, is almost as bad as paying too little." Why? Because, according to the a...
by venkman
Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "$1 Million is Closer Than You Think"
Replies: 54
Views: 9350

Re: "$1 Million is Closer Than You Think"

They should include a part that shows how much faster your money will grow if your investment company doesn't spend it on advertising... :D Advertising brings in more money to funds, which makes (some of) the costs lower when distributed across all the assets under management, and since Vanguard fu...
by venkman
Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "$1 Million is Closer Than You Think"
Replies: 54
Views: 9350

Re: "$1 Million is Closer Than You Think"

They should include a part that shows how much faster your money will grow if your investment company doesn't spend it on advertising... :D
by venkman
Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"
Replies: 37
Views: 5096

Re: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"

Are small-caps supposed to have a better risk-adjusted return, or just a higher absolute return, as a compensation for the added risk? And how much of the shrinking size premium is due to the fact that it's become a lot easier/cheaper to invest in small-caps? Quick PV backtest says that small-caps h...
by venkman
Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: So new, it hurts to even think about it.
Replies: 25
Views: 4605

Re: So new, it hurts to even think about it.

1. I've been looking a the prospectus' and fact sheets. I'm sort of putting together what I'm seeing when I look at them. I look at the 'since inception' number as that tells me how it's been overall through the peaks and valleys. I also look at the expense ratio. Seems like an ideal fund would hav...
by venkman
Sun Nov 05, 2017 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey sounded like a Boglehead today (Nov 2 2017)
Replies: 33
Views: 5521

Re: Dave Ramsey sounded like a Boglehead today (Nov 2 2017)

WanderingDoc wrote:
Sun Nov 05, 2017 1:11 am
I now spend more than a few hours a month on this forum. Also time well spent.
Agreed. :sharebeer
by venkman
Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey sounded like a Boglehead today (Nov 2 2017)
Replies: 33
Views: 5521

Re: Dave Ramsey sounded like a Boglehead today (Nov 2 2017)

More control equals less risk, not more. Buying a property cannot be compared in any way to buying an individual stock. When you buy a property, that is your own enterprise from start to finish: market and submarket research, due diligence, property acquisition, repositioning, management, dispositi...
by venkman
Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I-bond inflation irony?
Replies: 35
Views: 3583

Re: I-bond inflation irony?

You can still buy up to $5 million in TIPS at every auction...
by venkman
Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How does a conversion to a Roth IRA affect cap gains tax rate?
Replies: 8
Views: 748

Re: How does a conversion to a Roth IRA affect cap gains tax rate?

Do you mean you've taken $42k in capital gains within the IRA accounts, or you've realized $42k in capital gains this year in a separate, taxable account?
by venkman
Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Have TIPS truly been tested yet?
Replies: 34
Views: 2739

Re: Have TIPS truly been tested yet?

One problem often overlooked here is TIPS for high income/high net worth people with taxable accounts. If we ever get massive inflation that TIPS are supposed to protect against, there will be a huge taxflation problem. Having to pay big taxes on big TIPS increases that are nominal but not real. I ...
by venkman
Fri Nov 03, 2017 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey sounded like a Boglehead today (Nov 2 2017)
Replies: 33
Views: 5521

Re: Dave Ramsey sounded like a Boglehead today (Nov 2 2017)

Real estate affords you much more control, much more cash flow, and much better tax treatment. I don't follow DR but this all seems logical to me. Yes, but with individual properties, you run into the same non-systematic risk you get with individual stocks. I'm not opposed to a tilt toward REIT's i...
by venkman
Fri Nov 03, 2017 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Have TIPS truly been tested yet?
Replies: 34
Views: 2739

Re: Have TIPS truly been tested yet?

One problem often overlooked here is TIPS for high income/high net worth people with taxable accounts. If we ever get massive inflation that TIPS are supposed to protect against, there will be a huge taxflation problem. Having to pay big taxes on big TIPS increases that are nominal but not real. I ...
by venkman
Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Some investing help for my Grandmother
Replies: 7
Views: 834

Re: Some investing help for my Grandmother

While she would love to do this for herself, she has so many unrealized gains that it would be impossible for her to sell out of some inferior funds she currently holds. I think she has a Healthcare fund, a Utilities fund, etc. What does someone do when they want to simply or move their portfolio i...
by venkman
Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey sounded like a Boglehead today (Nov 2 2017)
Replies: 33
Views: 5521

Re: Dave Ramsey sounded like a Boglehead today (Nov 2 2017)

1. I max out my 401k --> A Boglehead move 2. I do backdoor Roth IRAs --> A Boglehead move (** actually surprised he mentioned this as it's confusing and income bracket specific) 3. The rest of my extra money I put in a "no-load" S&P500 index fund --> A Boglehead move. 4. When my index fund gets big...
by venkman
Wed Nov 01, 2017 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ETF vs Investor Shares (Bonus Q: Fund Allocation)
Replies: 17
Views: 892

Re: ETF vs Investor Shares (Bonus Q: Fund Allocation)

First (and most pressing) question: I've been investing into Vanguard ETFs for all of my accounts (Roth IRA, Rollover IRA, Cash Management Account). I'm doing this due to the lower expense ratios and the fact that I can't get Admiral shares at Merrill. However, the ETF investing is mildly annoying,...
by venkman
Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there ever a good time to use a fee-only fiduciary advisor
Replies: 11
Views: 984

Re: Is there ever a good time to use a fee-only fiduciary advisor

by dbr » Tue Oct 31, 2017 2:05 pm jhendrix wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:59 pm .....Nothing is ever always and nothing is ever regardless of . . . a professional advisor. The trick is that almost all the people you will come across when seeking such a person are parasites and con-men who will hurt yo...
by venkman
Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SEC vs DIST yield in tax equivalent yield calc
Replies: 15
Views: 1394

Re: SEC vs DIST yield in tax equivalent yield calc

If a mutual fund receives coupon payments of 40 cents per share, but is required to declare 50 cents per tax purposes, the NAV will drop by 10 cents as the premium is amortized. Shareholders who do not reinvest dividends will receive the 50 cents, for a net gain of 40 cents since the NAV dropped by...
by venkman
Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SEC vs DIST yield in tax equivalent yield calc
Replies: 15
Views: 1394

Re: SEC vs DIST yield in tax equivalent yield calc

Taxpayers are required to amortize the premium when a bond is bought at initial offering above par value; mutual funds do the same. Otherwise, you could buy one of these bonds, hold it to maturity, and get tax-free income with a guaranteed capital loss. With the amortization of the premium, you rep...
by venkman
Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio advice/liquidation of equities
Replies: 13
Views: 825

Re: Portfolio advice/liquidation of equities

4) I've got a substantial amount of cash in my savings account and desire an investment method that allows me to accumulate for interest than my savings account allows me but yet allows me the flexibility to withdraw funds when needed. Any suggestions would appreciated. Higher return ALWAYS means h...
by venkman
Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Fund Selection and Allocation %s
Replies: 9
Views: 586

Re: Help with Fund Selection and Allocation %s

Questions 1. I just opened the Fidelity Rollover IRA and Roth IRA. That is why the majority of the funds are in CORE right now. Of the available funds low expense ratio funds listed above, which do you recommend? Or maybe recommendations other than those listed above. I am looking to do the 3 fund ...
by venkman
Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SEC vs DIST yield in tax equivalent yield calc
Replies: 15
Views: 1394

Re: SEC vs DIST yield in tax equivalent yield calc

Thanks for the replies. Quark: I did not realize the distribution yield could be manipulated so easily, I've learned something. Hopefully Vanguard is not actively doing this with VWIUX. If you look at past history VWIUX DIST yield always beats the SEC yield. Ogd: I understand the apples to oranges ...
by venkman
Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I compute year to date returns?
Replies: 10
Views: 1138

Re: How do I compute year to date returns?

Correct. But what is the YTD return? Is my return 11%, since I started the year with 100k? One could say I started with 105k and ended with 116k which would yield a YTD return of 10.476%. However, I did not in fact start with 105k. I started with 100k. So does that mean that if a man starts with 10...
by venkman
Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone use individual Bonds instead of Bond Funds in retirement fund?
Replies: 18
Views: 1398

Re: Anyone use individual Bonds instead of Bond Funds in retirement fund?

Then I thought why not lock in with individual Bonds. Sure I may be giving up potentially higher yields but I really won't care as much about inflation or rising interest rates and can sleep better at night. Unless you're buying exclusively TIPS, you should probably still care about inflation...
by venkman
Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to account for sales charges in portfolio calculations?
Replies: 3
Views: 483

Re: How to account for sales charges in portfolio calculations?

To give an example of why this might matter, consider the following PortfolioVisualizer simulation that compares ABALX vs. a fairly standard 3-fund vanguard portfolio from 1987 to present. I think you accidentally transposed 2 letters and entered VGSTX (VG Star fund) instead of VGTSX (Total Intl.) ...
by venkman
Sat Oct 28, 2017 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle has a forecast...
Replies: 19
Views: 4241

Re: Bogle has a forecast...

True. But why does Wellesley and Wellington seem to end up in so many portfolios despite being active vs indexed? The ER of Wellington Admiral shares is only .16%, which is on par with Vanguard's Lifestrategy and Target Retirement funds. Active funds as a group don't lose to index funds because act...
by venkman
Sat Oct 28, 2017 9:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need some advice on our unique situation, thoughts appreciated!
Replies: 11
Views: 1215

Re: Need some advice on our unique situation, thoughts appreciated!

I think it's a good idea to be aggressive about paying down 5.5% debt. Get as much free money from 401k matching as you can, then knock out the student loans and the CC debt. The only growth you'd be missing out on is the amount above 5.5% that your retirement accounts grow; and it's entirely possib...
by venkman
Fri Oct 27, 2017 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Accounts in a mess -- re-allocation help would be appreciated!
Replies: 8
Views: 1161

Re: Accounts in a mess -- re-allocation help would be appreciated!

Most of your assets seem to be in taxable brokerage accounts. Any advice will depend greatly on what sort of capital gains you're currently sitting on in those accounts, as well as the specific funds you're invested in. Your marginal tax bracket is also relevant. If you had zero capital gains to wor...
by venkman
Fri Oct 27, 2017 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: allocation & funds/bogles recent interview that vanguard is almost too big
Replies: 22
Views: 1195

Re: allocation & funds/bogles recent interview that vanguard is almost too big

starsjjm wrote:
Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:16 pm
market is at epic highs now--may wait till 2018 to start dollar cost averaging in .
any thoughts?
What will you do if the market goes even higher between now and 2018?
by venkman
Thu Oct 26, 2017 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks go up, bonds fall. Stock fall, bonds also fall.
Replies: 51
Views: 5384

Re: Stocks go up, bonds fall. Stock fall, bonds also fall.

Holding a bond fund such as VBTLX doesn't make sense to me either. A ladder of 5-year CDs pays the same interest without the volatility. Not sure under what scenario holding the bond fund would be better, and it can be worse, so I don't bother with that. VBTLX has better liquidity, and the dividend...