Search found 442 matches

by venkman
Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long term experiment
Replies: 3
Views: 473

Re: Long term experiment

Don't confuse strategy with outcome.

Ex-ante, Total Stock Market is the better choice.

Ex-ante investment choices are the ones that matter, because they're the only ones you can make.
by venkman
Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices
Replies: 34
Views: 5168

Re: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices

Just a wild guess, but it may have something to do with the financial incentives management have. If your compensation is tied to the rate of growth in assets under management (or even worse, growth of new money coming into the firm) It may explain all the Vanguard ads touting low expenses. But how...
by venkman
Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices
Replies: 34
Views: 5168

Re: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices

Vanguard is not an unbiased source now that they have put a fortune into attracting new customers. If the new customers pull their money outoff bond funds it's a problem for them. If Vanguard operates its funds at cost and doesn't charge 12b-1 fees, where are they getting the money to attract new c...
by venkman
Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Large/Small/Mid cap correlation
Replies: 5
Views: 508

Re: Large/Small/Mid cap correlation

Mid- and small-cap blend indexes tend to correlate very highly with the S&P 500. The BH 3-fund portfolio recommends VTI if you have access to it, but VOO is a perfectly acceptable substitute.
by venkman
Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand the effect of bonds during bear markets
Replies: 5
Views: 672

Re: Help me understand the effect of bonds during bear markets

2008 was atypical, because it was a full-blown financial crisis, not just a bear stock market. Most everything that wasn't Treasury bonds took a hit. VBTLX had a pretty sizeable drawdown in 2008 (-3.94%, which is small compared to everything else, but sizeable for VBTLX); it recovered by the end of ...
by venkman
Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the evidence against slice and dice?
Replies: 59
Views: 4485

Re: What is the evidence against slice and dice?

Slice and dice works best when the individual slices are volatile asset classes with similar expected return and relatively low correlation, so you benefit from a rebalancing bonus. One of Larry Swedroe's books has an anecdote about a simulation performed by DFA that tracked the stocks of 8 emerging...
by venkman
Thu Feb 15, 2018 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to pay off debt instead of invest?
Replies: 27
Views: 1227

Re: When to pay off debt instead of invest?

2) Invest 80% of the 80k into vanguard stock accounts, and put the other 20% into a 5 year CD (current rates at 2.6%, which seem to be beat the returns on VBTLX even in the long term)? Not that I'm suggesting you go with Option #2, but the long-term PAST returns for VBTLX happened over a period of ...
by venkman
Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ESA Allocation for High School Freshman
Replies: 5
Views: 380

Re: ESA Allocation for High School Freshman

Thank you for responses. ESA is at vanguard. She will need some of the money in 3-4 years. Most likely not enough to cover all 4 years /unless she receives scholarships. In you opinion do you think a Bond Fund is not a good option due to increased risk as opposed to CDs or HY savings A 5-year CD an...
by venkman
Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Alternatives
Replies: 9
Views: 606

Re: Alternatives

What are people’s opinions on having fund(s) to bolster a small amount of alternatives (<5% of portfolio)? For example: 1. Vanguard Natural Resources VNRR 2. Vanguard REIT (I don’t own real estate so this could add exposure to that market) I don't think VNRR has anything to do with Vanguard the fun...
by venkman
Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are these fees for real?
Replies: 25
Views: 2216

Re: Are these fees for real?

Jgiudici wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:46 am
I was about ready to move this all into her primary retirement at TransAmerica where she has the Vanguard Total Market Fund at .07% but I'm worried about the 5% for dumping them.
If you DON'T transfer the money now, you'll pay 5% in excessive ER costs over the next 2.5 years.
by venkman
Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Misguided Beliefs of Financial Advisors
Replies: 15
Views: 2825

Re: The Misguided Beliefs of Financial Advisors

I took the Series 65 (Investment adviser) exam last year. I passed easily by studying maybe an hour a day for two months. Most of the questions relate to the legal/regulatory issues around being an adviser, and choosing what investment types are most appropriate for different clients. Nothing about ...
by venkman
Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome
Replies: 20
Views: 1714

Re: Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome

RRAAYY3 wrote:
Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:36 pm
feels like bonds are pretty much as risky as equity without the return potential ...
Since 1993, the worst calendar year return for Vanguard's Total Stock Market Index was -37%.

The worst calendar year return for VG's Total Bond Index was -2.66%.
by venkman
Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellesley Income Annual Distributions Data
Replies: 5
Views: 955

Re: Wellesley Income Annual Distributions Data

Thank you for your reply and suggestions. I appreciate it a lot. Unfortunately -- unless I am not missing something -- they both provide only percentages and not dollars per year which is what I need to try to analyze the funds available after-tax comparing a Welleslay-based portfolio versus a port...
by venkman
Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellesley Income Annual Distributions Data
Replies: 5
Views: 955

Re: Wellesley Income Annual Distributions Data

Vanguard's website has a page for each fund that lists separate income and capital return, going back 15 years. For Wellesley: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundIntExt=INT&FundId=0027&funds_disable_redirect=true#tab=1a Portfolio Visualizer has an option that lists income from a por...
by venkman
Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active v. passive during corrections
Replies: 21
Views: 1916

Re: Active v. passive during corrections

Vanguard lists the turnover rate for VGHAX as 12.3%. They may be actively picking stocks, but I don't think they're doing a lot of buying and selling.
by venkman
Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond funds and stock funds, which one is riskier?
Replies: 50
Views: 4095

Re: Bond funds and stock funds, which one is riskier?

nisiprius wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:45 pm
Betcha can't find a bond fund with a risk potential over 3.
I found one:

Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV)

:happy
by venkman
Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does this strategy make sense in a falling market?
Replies: 19
Views: 2176

Re: Does this strategy make sense in a falling market?

VTI (Total Stock Market ETF) has dropped to the same price it was trading at in November; and that was after a very good run over the course of last year. At a time when stock valuations were pretty high to begin with. In an environment where stocks were being boosted by low interest rates, which ar...
by venkman
Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation Lessons (and a question)
Replies: 3
Views: 343

Re: Correlation Lessons (and a question)

Treasuries are better during a period of crisis. Corporates are better during the much more common periods when there isn't a crisis. Since nobody knows nothin', might as well own some of both. :happy
by venkman
Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Target Retirement -- US Market Correlation?
Replies: 8
Views: 998

Re: Target Retirement -- US Market Correlation?

I remember one of Larry Swedroe's books talking about how the correlation that really matters is not whether two assets move in the same direction at the same time; it's the timing of how the assets perform relative to their own average returns. e.g. If A and B each average a long-term 8% return, an...
by venkman
Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TLH -> Short-term loss versus Long-term loss
Replies: 3
Views: 550

Re: TLH -> Short-term loss versus Long-term loss

I remember that in term of tax loss harvest (TLH), it is better to have a short-term loss than a long-term loss. But, I cannot remember the reasoning behind this. Could someone please enlighten me on this? Short-term losses can offset short-term gains. Long-term losses have to offset any long-term ...
by venkman
Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Managing a bond portfolio
Replies: 3
Views: 403

Re: Managing a bond portfolio

It's not difficult to build a bond portfolio that will beat VG's TBM. But to overcome that .50% ER, it will necessarily have more risk somewhere. If the fund in question is BCOIX, Morningstar lists its average credit quality as BBB. I'm thinking the advisor might be getting kickbacks from Baird for ...
by venkman
Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Replacement for Google Finance price quote function
Replies: 46
Views: 4478

Re: Replacing Google Finance price quote function

Update: Try the WSJ's quote tool. Here's the result for VTSAX . I'm able to access the Total Returns table like this: =IMPORTHTML("http://quotes.wsj.com/mutualfund/VTSAX?mod=searchresults_companyquotes", "table", 3) Using the INDEX function described in this thread, you can extract the YTD, 1YR, 3Y...
by venkman
Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Replacement for Google Finance price quote function
Replies: 46
Views: 4478

Re: Replacing Google Finance price quote function

I don't suppose there's a way to tweak it to return the YTD performance instead of the share price? (I couldn't find a YTD quote listed on the marketwatch site.) I'm tracking a few mock mutual fund portfolios, and it's easier to use the YTD info so I don't have to worry about adjusting for dividend...
by venkman
Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Motley Fool ETF Debuts (TMFC)
Replies: 11
Views: 1458

Re: Motley Fool ETF Debuts (TMFC)

What is the backtested performance based on? The current 100 stocks in the index? Did they simply pick ones that outperformed a lot in the last 10 years thus giving this ETF a backtested edge over the S&P 500 by default? Morningstar lists it as 53% large growth and 40% technology. So, I'd say your ...
by venkman
Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Replacement for Google Finance price quote function
Replies: 46
Views: 4478

Re: Replacing Google Finance price quote function

Yes, real-time in the sense that -- right now at 7:15pm ET -- marketwatch.com returns today's closing NAV and finance.google.com still returns yesterday's closing NAV. And, even though finance.google.com's quote tool returns the NAV from yesterday (Feb 1), its timestamp for the quote says "Jan 31, ...
by venkman
Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Father of Portfolio Theory Bets on Rebuilding
Replies: 3
Views: 954

Re: The Father of Portfolio Theory Bets on Rebuilding

One would think companies that stand to benefit from a well-known event that happened 6 months ago would have that priced into their stocks already...
by venkman
Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Returns: Total Bond Market Index vs. Intermediate Term Index
Replies: 8
Views: 1052

Re: Returns: Total Bond Market Index vs. Intermediate Term Index

In the 2008 bear market Vanguard Intermediate Term Bond Index Fund fell -6.2% . Meanwhile, Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund gained -5% -- a difference of -11.2%. I believe you're thinking of Vanguard's Intermediate Investment Grade Fund (VFICX), which was down 6.2% in 2008. (Though it recovere...
by venkman
Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I Even Need Bond Funds Now? What is the point?
Replies: 7
Views: 1173

Re: Do I Even Need Bond Funds Now? What is the point?

For instance, if in 2018 interest rates go up 1%, which is possible, I stand to lose $6K in VBMFX alone. So why am I doing this? Also, I listen to CNBC and Bloomberg radio in the car all day and it is advised not to have CDs over one year in duration because you're locking in today's lower rate. An...
by venkman
Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k & the Stock Market
Replies: 12
Views: 1454

Re: 401k & the Stock Market

Presumably, most of that 401k money is going into the stock market through mutual funds. And the fund companies know exactly how much money will be coming in each payday, so they should be able to prepare for it in advance with minimal market disruption.
by venkman
Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard's advice on bond portion of portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 5877

Re: Vanguard's advice on bond portion of portfolio

The VG explanation to me was VFSUX is provide some protection against rising rates. VFIDX is to offset the lower return of VFSUX. You should tilt to Fund X, to lower your risk. Also, you should tilt to Fund Y, to increase your return. That VG rep doesn't seem to have a very good grasp of how the fu...
by venkman
Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest rates and S&P 500
Replies: 6
Views: 1097

Re: Interest rates and S&P 500

From what I can tell, there are two general opinions about US stock valuation these days: 1. US stocks are overvalued. 2. US stock valuations are high, compared to historical standards, but stocks aren't really overvalued when you account for very low interest rates. If interest rates start going up...
by venkman
Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VBTLX [Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund]
Replies: 2
Views: 708

Re: VBTLX [Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund]

Since Nov. 2013, VBTLX has an annual return of about 2.7%. The share price is only one component of returns. A much more important component for long-term bond investors is the interest that the bond fund pays out, and you've been getting those interest payments every month this whole time. You may ...
by venkman
Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Yahoo Finance no longer works - Alternatives to download securities quotes]
Replies: 273
Views: 36269

Re: Yahoo! Quote Not Working

• use default Options • select HTML_all • check Update every 60 seconds • OK I don't get prompted for any of these after I press enter. There must be something missing from your procedure. I'm using libreoffice 5.4.4.2 . Go under "Sheet" in the Calc menu, and select "Link to External Data." Paste t...
by venkman
Tue Jan 23, 2018 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard CEO - "4-4.5% Market Returns Over The Next Decade"
Replies: 35
Views: 5229

Re: Vanguard CEO - "4-4.5% Market Returns Over The Next Decade"

Forget Vanguard. I wanna know what Dave Ramsey is predicting for mutual fund returns over the next decade. :twisted:
by venkman
Tue Jan 23, 2018 9:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prioritizing paying down debt
Replies: 19
Views: 1496

Re: Prioritizing paying down debt

After including my thoughts on why I am hesitant to have a 1k emergency fund, does it change any of the strategies suggested in this thread? If you would feel significantly more comfortable with a bigger emergency fund, do it. The general spirit of the BH philosophy is that it's okay to do a thing ...
by venkman
Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?
Replies: 94
Views: 6496

Re: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?

I don't know how much of the small value premium is due to risk vs. investor behavior, but the existence of a premium makes fundamental sense. Given two companies that had the same share price and expected EPS, would you choose to invest in the one that was large and stable, or the one that was smal...
by venkman
Sat Jan 20, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: getting started
Replies: 3
Views: 285

Re: getting started

Vanguard (or most other firms) should be able to initiate a transfer to a Rollover IRA. You'll need to give them the information on your current 401k's (account #'s, etc.), and they can do most of the work for you. Once everything is transferred, you can contribute to the IRA, subject to normal IRA ...
by venkman
Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Superstars of Wrestling Investing - Ultimate S&P500 Valuation
Replies: 13
Views: 1523

Re: Superstars of Wrestling Investing - Ultimate S&P500 Valuation

That's after he's dead. He seems to still be confident that he can beat the S&P 500 going forward; his track record in doing so in the past is undeniable.* *Note: I take this as close to proof that the EMH is false. If the EMH were accurate, the likelihood of anyone, even out of millions of investo...
by venkman
Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ibonds, cds and treasury direct questions
Replies: 6
Views: 877

Re: ibonds, cds and treasury direct questions

2. Now that I have a treasury direct account - I noticed that you can buy short term securities which seem comparable to the CD rates of my bank (if not a bit better) Is a purchase a short term treasury equivalent to purchase a CD at my bank? Are there additional pros/cons to purchase short term tr...
by venkman
Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inheritance !! Moving From Morgan Stanley ...
Replies: 9
Views: 1121

Re: Inheritance !! Moving From Morgan Stanley ...

Again, I'm pretty clueless and I'm not really a gambler, and being in my 60's, I'm not investing for my future. Thanks in advance for your understanding and responses. If you're not a gambler, and this is money you will need to live on, you should absolutely sell off the individual stocks (taking c...
by venkman
Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Superstars of Wrestling Investing - Ultimate S&P500 Valuation
Replies: 13
Views: 1523

Re: Superstars of Wrestling Investing - Ultimate S&P500 Valuation

In a March 2017 Forbes article, Warren Buffett said that he believes the stock market is not overvalued and we should stay invested. Would this be the same Warren Buffett who is STILL sitting on $100 billion in cash? I'm not saying he's wrong about the stock market, but if HE of all people can't fi...
by venkman
Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard US Investment Options Minus Top 10?
Replies: 20
Views: 1406

Re: Vanguard US Investment Options Minus Top 10?

These companies make up a significant portion of the top 10 of many Vanguard Funds. I want to invest in the total US stock market minus these. What options are there for a Vanguard investor? The option most fitting with the BH philosophy is to remember that the reason index funds exist in the first...
by venkman
Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Healthcare Fund vs. T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund
Replies: 4
Views: 505

Re: Vanguard Healthcare Fund vs. T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund

Median market-cap of the TRP fund is half that of the Vanguard fund ($25 vs. $50 billion). So, all other things being equal, you would expect the TRP fund to have both higher risk and higher return. Which is pretty much how it shows up in the PV backtesting--since 2008, PRHSX has had significantly h...
by venkman
Wed Jan 17, 2018 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Market
Replies: 30
Views: 2413

Re: Bond Market

If you are a buy-and-hold bond fund investor for the long term, you WANT interest rates to go up. The increase in interest payments will eventually make up for any capital losses. Let's say you buy an individual 5-year bond today that will yield a total of x dollars over its life in interest payment...
by venkman
Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was 2017 a unique year for the stock market?
Replies: 11
Views: 2016

Re: Was 2017 a unique year for the stock market?

I do remember reading that 2017 was the first year in which market returns were positive for every single calendar month.
by venkman
Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Book Suggestions
Replies: 14
Views: 1033

Re: Book Suggestions

Harry Potter & the Small-Cap Value Tilt? :D
by venkman
Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman and Small Cap Value
Replies: 90
Views: 8132

Re: Paul Merriman and Small Cap Value

PS SCV does not "orbit" around the mean of TSM; it orbits around its own mean, which as far as we are aware is a greater expected return than the expected return of TSM with a greater expected volatility than that expected of TSM. Yeah, I probably could've phrased that better. I think what I meant ...
by venkman
Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Target Retirement Funds
Replies: 15
Views: 2091

Re: Target Retirement Funds

Hello. I currently hold two 401k investments: - Vanguard Target Retirement 2030 Fund (VTHRX) - Schwab Target 2030 SWDRX Straightforward question: Are these good choices? What is your opinion of target funds in general; and these specifically? Vanguard TR funds are a great choice. The Schwab fund ha...
by venkman
Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it fair to assume the U.S. and Ex-U.S. stock markets will exhibit reversion to the mean?
Replies: 5
Views: 734

Re: Is it fair to assume the U.S. and Ex-U.S. stock markets will exhibit reversion to the mean?

Basically investors often argue that rebalancing can improve returns because it forces you to buy low and sell high. However, this is only true if there is reversion to the mean between the two assets. Otherwise, you will sell the winning asset most of the time. So I want to know if this could lead...
by venkman
Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Visualizer
Replies: 3
Views: 535

Re: Portfolio Visualizer

I did a comparison of a growth portfolio 52% VTSMX, 28% VGTSX, 16% VBMFX and 4% PIGlX compared to 100% VBLTX (Bonds) and 100% VTSMX (equities). For a long run, Jan 2001 to Dec 2017 the 100% bonds outperformed the other portfolios all the way through. I have read that we have been on a bond bull run...