Search found 687 matches

by venkman
Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Start a Treasury Ladder... or not?
Replies: 9
Views: 1223

Re: Start a Treasury Ladder... or not?

That strategy is fine, as long as the other 50% of your portfolio is invested for reasonable growth.

If your primary goal is income, have you considered longer-term bonds and/or CD's?
by venkman
Sat Oct 13, 2018 1:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High risk. vs. high volatility
Replies: 2
Views: 302

Re: High risk. vs. high volatility

I would only recommend a high-risk investment that has an expected (not potential) higher return as compensation for the high risk. Things like Bitcoin are high-risk, but have no expected return. Volatility risk can usually be minimized by a long holding period. Risk that your investment will become...
by venkman
Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset
Replies: 66
Views: 3450

Re: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset

If you factor in taxes, it's a net loss. If you come out ahead in a given year, you owe taxes on the amount you won; but if you come out negative for the year, you can't deduct the losses. So, after-tax, your expected return is negative. After inflation, it's even worse.
by venkman
Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: seeking advice: bond funds vs CDs/Treasuries
Replies: 3
Views: 710

Re: seeking advice: bond funds vs CDs/Treasuries

For maturities of 2 years or less, spreads between CD's and Treasuries are pretty low right now. If this is in a taxable account and you're subject to state taxes, Treasuries might be the better option.
by venkman
Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Whew! Stock market is no longer at all-time highs, so ...
Replies: 34
Views: 5350

Re: Whew! Stock market is no longer at all-time highs, so ...

Even though the market is down, my Dave Ramsey mutual funds are still on pace for their guaranteed annual 12% gain, right? :twisted:
by venkman
Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: can i start a private investment firm?
Replies: 70
Views: 5027

Re: can i start a private investment firm?

When you making money and have proofs to back it up..you dont need advertisement. Yes there are frauds out there, BUT the whole entire world is not fraud. Point is some people are just made different. And also when you are very transparent, that makes things even easier. Requiring people to pass th...
by venkman
Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flattening yield curve
Replies: 55
Views: 4771

Re: Flattening yield curve

So if a flattening or inverted yield curve maybe causes a recession what causes the yield curve to be flat or inverted in the first place? Happening at the same time and causation are not the same thing. An inverted yield curve doesn't cause a recession; it's the result of the market predicting a r...
by venkman
Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond Fund in 401k
Replies: 9
Views: 794

Re: Total Bond Fund in 401k

Looking for some suggestions...We are basically using the 3 fund portfolio. We have Total Stock Adml and Total Int'l Stock Adml in our taxable accounts along with a tax free bond fund and Total Bond Adml in our 401k. The 401k Total Bond has lost about $10K this year. I'm wondering if there's a bett...
by venkman
Wed Oct 03, 2018 11:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it possible to rebalance too quickly when shifting from equity to fixed income?
Replies: 6
Views: 935

Re: Is it possible to rebalance too quickly when shifting from equity to fixed income?

You aren't selling stocks at a low point, so I don't see any problem with moving too fast. 2 years is less than the maturity of most short-term bond funds, so your interest rate risk on the CD's is low.
by venkman
Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sending checks to Vanguard
Replies: 7
Views: 920

Re: Sending checks to Vanguard

How do I get Vanguard to automatically invest a check sent through my checking account's online bill payment system? Here's what I'd like to do: - Using my Ally checking account, send a check/"bill payment" to Vanguard. - Have Vanguard automatically use those funds to purchase VTSAX. The first step...
by venkman
Mon Oct 01, 2018 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions about the Vanguard CD and Bond
Replies: 4
Views: 440

Re: Questions about the Vanguard CD and Bond

My questions are: 1) Why CD's rate is lower than Treasuries? If treasure's return is no fed tax (my understanding), and I have to pay regular income tax for CD's return? So why people buy CD instead of treasures? 2) What are the agencies? With such a high return? How does it work? I just buy it, ex...
by venkman
Thu Sep 27, 2018 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why does rebalancing a 50/50 SP500/EAFE mix appear to increase return relative to an unrebalanced 50/50 mix?
Replies: 6
Views: 673

Re: Why does rebalancing a 50/50 SP500/EAFE mix appear to increase return relative to an unrebalanced 50/50 mix?

The key is that you're rebalancing between two asset classes that have the same expected return. When one outperforms, the other underperforms, and both are set up for an eventual reversion to the mean.
by venkman
Thu Sep 27, 2018 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "Freedom, Freedom Index, or Freedom Blend: Understanding Fidelity’s Confusing Lineup Of Target-Date Funds"
Replies: 6
Views: 880

Re: "Freedom, Freedom Index, or Freedom Blend: Understanding Fidelity’s Confusing Lineup Of Target-Date Funds"

Personally, I think the name "Freedom Blend" would have been better suited for a special Starbucks brew that was only offered around the Fourth of July... :happy
by venkman
Thu Sep 27, 2018 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 99% invested in stocks, bond recommendations please?
Replies: 19
Views: 2509

Re: 99% invested in stocks, bond recommendations please?

EDIT: I'm not asking about the 1%, I'm thinking of moving to something like an 80/20 stocks to bonds ratio and wondering about what bonds to put the 20% in. (sorry original post probabaly wasnt clear) Vanguard's Total Bond Market Index Fund (VBTLX) is generally the default BH choice for bonds in a ...
by venkman
Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: teaser savings rates - how long have they lasted?
Replies: 5
Views: 687

Re: teaser savings rates - how long have they lasted?

1-month US Treasury bills are yielding around 2.1% right now, and that interest is exempt from state and local taxes. I'm pretty sure you can set up an account at TreasuryDirect to automatically roll them over as they mature. If something comes up and you need access to the money before maturity, th...
by venkman
Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'
Replies: 74
Views: 7929

Re: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'

Let me see if I understand how the bond market works and why Siegel is wrong. Say I buy a bond fund for $100 when yield is 2%. So they're gonna yield $2 a year. Then, without warning, yield rises to 4%. At that moment, people can get $4 for $100, so nobody in their right mind would buy my $2-yield ...
by venkman
Sun Sep 23, 2018 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 31 year old needs 3 fund portfolio guidance
Replies: 4
Views: 863

Re: 31 year old needs 3 fund portfolio guidance

Questions: 1. Please help me understand the best way to simplify what I have. How do I take what I currently have and condense into a three fund portfolio? 2. In regard to my Roth IRA, what funds in a three fund portfolio make the most sense for me to put into my Roth? 3. Since I maxed out my Roth ...
by venkman
Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in the Rare Opportunity
Replies: 59
Views: 4478

Re: Investing in the Rare Opportunity

To me this is the absolute perfect move for Johnny to take. Opportunities like this are once-in-a-lifetime and potentially life changing. He’s already got $2 million so complete failure with the company equity won’t leave him starving. The barbell strategy is a reasonable attempt to balance risk. I...
by venkman
Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond or Total Bond/short-term
Replies: 48
Views: 4811

Re: Total Bond or Total Bond/short-term

The bond market (in Treasuries, at least) is efficient. All known information is priced in, and new information is assimilated almost instantly. Essentially, any change in market-based interest rates is unexpected; because if it were expected, it would already be priced in. I am with you until your...
by venkman
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond or Total Bond/short-term
Replies: 48
Views: 4811

Re: Total Bond or Total Bond/short-term

To your question: if intermediate rates rise, then the NAV of an intermediate fund will indeed go down. But a rise in the Federal Funds Rate will not necessarily trigger a rise in intermediate term rates. Nearly everyone believes the Fed will raise the FFR another .25% at the end of this month. Tha...
by venkman
Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best corporate long-term bond fund
Replies: 26
Views: 2054

Re: Best corporate long-term bond fund

For long-term corporate bonds, I'd go with the higher credit quality and active management of VWESX.
by venkman
Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How likely is it for a corporate bond rated BAA3/BBB to fail?
Replies: 16
Views: 1487

Re: How likely is it for a corporate bond rated BAA3/BBB to fail?

I read that all the time on this board. Corporate bonds are not worth the risk, and "take risk on the equity side" If that is true, wouldn't the lack of demand cause the price of corporate bonds to drop ( ie yield goes up) until they become worth it? In other words how is the average boglehead diff...
by venkman
Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond or Total Bond/short-term
Replies: 48
Views: 4811

Re: Total Bond or Total Bond/short-term

Except that since this thread started the NAV of Total Bond has continued to decrease and the YTD return of Total Bond is -1.89% while the YTD of Short Term Bond is -0.25%. Can anyone explain what the reasons are for this behavior? Interest rates have been rising over the past couple weeks. Bond fu...
by venkman
Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How likely is it for a corporate bond rated BAA3/BBB to fail?
Replies: 16
Views: 1487

Re: How likely is it for a corporate bond rated BAA3/BBB to fail?

The credit spread between corporate bonds and Treasuries bottomed out in early February of this year. It's rebounded somewhat, but it's still pretty low. I think corporate bonds can be worth the risk, as long as you're being rewarded appropriately for taking that risk. Right now, the reward just isn...
by venkman
Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond or Total Bond/short-term
Replies: 48
Views: 4811

Re: Total Bond or Total Bond/short-term

Question, how can one look up what the intermediate rates are doing? Isn't ^TNX the CBOE ten year treasury note (Ten Year Bond?) considered long term? Is there a ticker for intermediate term? Reason for asking: I am trying to figure out why the VBTLX Intermediate term bond index funds NAV, (not the...
by venkman
Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Personal Advisor - .30%
Replies: 23
Views: 3204

Re: Vanguard Personal Advisor - .33%

The funds automatically rebalance regularly. Can you guys clear this up for me? Anything in there I would lose if I stop the .33% advisor fee? Anything else I should be taking advantage of that I'm not? If you have separate individual stock and bond funds that automatically get rebalanced back to a...
by venkman
Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Costly race to bottom on mutual fund fees”
Replies: 13
Views: 1821

Re: “Costly race to bottom on mutual fund fees”

“ I have always been of the opinion that investors have done best in high-fee products with high transactions costs, bought and held over time, which are a built-in form of “advisor alpha.” I will change my mind when I meet my first Vanguard customer who is a billionaire. ” "But where are Jack Bogl...
by venkman
Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chasing Mutual Fund Performance - Follow the Momentum?
Replies: 5
Views: 514

Re: Chasing Mutual Fund Performance - Follow the Momentum?

Moreover, our calculations did not include transaction costs, which are likely in excess of 1%. As a consequence, these results are more theoretical than practical. And, if we impose a minimum holding period of one year, performance chasing looks far less appealing. The best- and worst-performing f...
by venkman
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CDs role in Fixed income part of portfolio
Replies: 31
Views: 2791

Re: CDs role in Fixed income part of portfolio

VG's Short Term Treasury Index (VSBSX) has an average maturity of 2.0 years, and a current SEC yield of 2.58%. Note: The YTD return of VSBSX is 0.10%. The one year total return is -0.31%. A CD ladder purchased a year ago would likely have a similar total return. SEC yield is a far more relevant pre...
by venkman
Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond or Total Bond/short-term
Replies: 48
Views: 4811

Re: Total Bond or Total Bond/short-term

Vineviz, I see this idea expressed often on the forum, and I'm not at all sure I understand what it means. I wonder if you or someone else can elaborate on it. Surely it can't mean that if interest rates rise, the NAV of a bond fund will remain unchanged—can it? What are the implications of this fo...
by venkman
Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with bond allocation
Replies: 9
Views: 813

Re: Help with bond allocation

I am trying to decide what form the bond portion of my AA should take. I am hesitating between Intermediate-Term Treasuries (under other circumstances I would probably consider long-term Treasuries, but not with the current yield curve) and High-Yield Municipal bonds, bearing in mind that the defau...
by venkman
Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CDs role in Fixed income part of portfolio
Replies: 31
Views: 2791

Re: CDs role in Fixed income part of portfolio

Right now, you can build a 5-year CD ladder with brokered CD's at Vanguard that yields 3.01% in the first year. If you could reinvest the maturing 1-year CD at current 5-year rates, the average yield goes up to 3.19% in year two. The average maturity of the ladder will be 2.5 years, and your princip...
by venkman
Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best options for Cash to beat inflation (other than CD) for short term 1-3 years
Replies: 7
Views: 1040

Re: Best options for Cash to beat inflation (other than CD) for short term 1-3 years

I have No Penalty CD from Ally which let me break the CD anytime after first 6 days. So if CD rates rise, I can break the earlier CD and get its return till that date and then reinvest the money in a No Penalty CD with new Rates. Its rates are little lower (No Penalty CD 2% and With Penalty CD 2.5%...
by venkman
Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's--Vanguard Is Losing Battles on Two Fronts in Fee Wars
Replies: 53
Views: 4715

Re: Barron's--Vanguard Is Losing Battles on Two Fronts in Fee Wars

It would require 9,000 across two accounts to get into the three fund investor class in less than one year and you still couldn't make it work on admiral for about 3 years. Even adding the extra account doesn't really change the fact that minimums add complexity you don't see at competitors. But ge...
by venkman
Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: One bond fund is enough?
Replies: 16
Views: 1726

Re: One bond fund is enough?

My question: How important is it to have all of these bond funds vs. simply the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund? I want to keep it as simple as possible, so I am keen to understand if these additional bond funds are worth getting. I have a long time horizon before retirement (about 20 years)....
by venkman
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invest for income?
Replies: 20
Views: 2095

Re: Invest for income?

Also, if you're getting 7-8% dividends consistently, your sequence of return risk would seem to be lower than if you're getting 4% real and withdrawing 4% per year. Because in the second portfolio, you might be up 20% in one year or down 56% the next. Sorry if I am being dense, but I find the idea ...
by venkman
Thu Sep 06, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual Fund Fee Wars Will Encourage Bad Behavior
Replies: 26
Views: 2652

Re: Mutual Fund Fee Wars Will Encourage Bad Behavior

"But fees on investment products can actually be good. Sometimes, such as with high commissions on stock trades, the sales loads ensure that investors are much less likely to churn their funds if they have to pay 200 to 500 basis points each time they want to get in or out." That's kind of like say...
by venkman
Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Bonds to boost returns?
Replies: 61
Views: 6528

Re: 100% Bonds to boost returns?

Not really. It's financial planning to calculate expected returns and then decide how best to attempt to get the return you need. That's why folks like Rick Ferri and Jack Bogle make return forecasts. I think the relevant question becomes: How are Rick Ferri and Jack Bogle positioning their portfol...
by venkman
Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hold cash in Treasury Bills or in Money Market Fund?
Replies: 36
Views: 4672

Re: Hold cash in Treasury Bills or in Money Market Fund?

My main reason for holding the cash is as the safety portion of my portfolio, so that I would not have to sell equities for retirement income during a downturn in the market. I am thinking about holding about three years worth of cash, though even at FNSSX rates of 2% that is a bit of a drag on per...
by venkman
Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to invest in individual stocks (like Kanye West) if you stick to what you know?
Replies: 110
Views: 5763

Re: Does it make sense to invest in individual stocks (like Kanye West) if you stick to what you know?

In Kanye West’s case, he has a business partnership with Adidas. He may also have had unique insights into some of the other companies he chose. [emphasis added] As far as I can tell, the "business partnership" he has is essentially just Adidas paying him to put his name on their shoes. And his "kn...
by venkman
Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it time to go shorter in bonds ?
Replies: 109
Views: 8315

Re: Is it time to go shorter in bonds ?

Sorry, I guess I misunderstood where you were coming from. Yes, it is a bit curious that the prices are holding on intermediate bonds, especially after the market got spooked and sold off in 2013. The market still seems to have a strong appetite for yield, even in the face of interest rate risk. Al...
by venkman
Sat Sep 01, 2018 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it time to go shorter in bonds ?
Replies: 109
Views: 8315

Re: Is it time to go shorter in bonds ?

If investors in intermediate bond funds aren't being adequately compensated for the duration risk, doesn't that make you wonder WHY so many investors are staying with intermediate bonds, and not moving to short-term? No, it doesn't make me wonder why. I think that most investors don't have the slig...
by venkman
Sat Sep 01, 2018 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What are your goals when you change your bond funds?
Replies: 36
Views: 2386

Re: What are your goals when you change your bond funds?

My ultimate goal is to wait until long-term bonds start paying a decent return, then put all my bond allocation there.

My short-term goal is to figure out what "a decent return" means, so I'll know when it's time to implement my ultimate goal. :happy
by venkman
Fri Aug 31, 2018 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it time to go shorter in bonds ?
Replies: 109
Views: 8315

Re: Is it time to go shorter in bonds ?

With the Fed's continuing program of raising short-term rates, the spread between the 2-yr and 10-yr Treasuries has narrowed to just 0.20% compared to a historic spread of about 2.0%. This flat yield curve has analysts saying that investors in intermediate term bond funds (such as Vanguard Total Bo...
by venkman
Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can margin be beneficial for long-term investing?
Replies: 61
Views: 3659

Re: Can margin be beneficial for long-term investing?

The companies that make up the US stock market are, in the aggregate, significantly leveraged. True, but that's not a compelling reason for me to add additional leverage to the mix. Agreed. My point was that stocks are already quite leveraged, and I don't think there's any need to leverage that inv...
by venkman
Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone investing in Municipal bonds ?
Replies: 46
Views: 3250

Re: Anyone investing in Municipal bonds ?

Just out of curiosity, why not VWAHX ? I would definitely consider VWLTX (Long-term tax exempt). The average maturity is around 17 years, but the fund contains a lot of premium bonds, so the duration is 6.8, which is only slightly higher than VG's intermediate taxable funds. Since muni bonds tend t...
by venkman
Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can margin be beneficial for long-term investing?
Replies: 61
Views: 3659

Re: Can margin be beneficial for long-term investing?

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:19 pm
If you aren't borrowing to invest, then you aren't leveraged at all. Having all of your eggs in U.S. stocks doesn't have anything to do with leverage.
The companies that make up the US stock market are, in the aggregate, significantly leveraged.
by venkman
Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellington VS Balanced Index
Replies: 6
Views: 1590

Re: Wellington VS Balanced Index

Thanks Bloom. This would be in a Tax deferred IRA. He is currently in all stock funds in Vanguard but is beginning to think about adding some bond funds and a balanced fund may be the best for him as he is not an active investor. What about a Target Retirement Fund? He sounds like a good candidate....
by venkman
Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can margin be beneficial for long-term investing?
Replies: 61
Views: 3659

Re: Can margin be beneficial for long-term investing?

If you want assets that are leveraged, going 100% long on the US stock market should be plenty...