Search found 404 matches

by venkman
Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ibonds, cds and treasury direct questions
Replies: 5
Views: 541

Re: ibonds, cds and treasury direct questions

2. Now that I have a treasury direct account - I noticed that you can buy short term securities which seem comparable to the CD rates of my bank (if not a bit better) Is a purchase a short term treasury equivalent to purchase a CD at my bank? Are there additional pros/cons to purchase short term tr...
by venkman
Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inheritance !! Moving From Morgan Stanley ...
Replies: 8
Views: 704

Re: Inheritance !! Moving From Morgan Stanley ...

Again, I'm pretty clueless and I'm not really a gambler, and being in my 60's, I'm not investing for my future. Thanks in advance for your understanding and responses. If you're not a gambler, and this is money you will need to live on, you should absolutely sell off the individual stocks (taking c...
by venkman
Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Superstars of Wrestling Investing - Ultimate S&P500 Valuation
Replies: 8
Views: 612

Re: Superstars of Wrestling Investing - Ultimate S&P500 Valuation

In a March 2017 Forbes article, Warren Buffett said that he believes the stock market is not overvalued and we should stay invested. Would this be the same Warren Buffett who is STILL sitting on $100 billion in cash? I'm not saying he's wrong about the stock market, but if HE of all people can't fi...
by venkman
Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard US Investment Options Minus Top 10?
Replies: 6
Views: 445

Re: Vanguard US Investment Options Minus Top 10?

These companies make up a significant portion of the top 10 of many Vanguard Funds. I want to invest in the total US stock market minus these. What options are there for a Vanguard investor? The option most fitting with the BH philosophy is to remember that the reason index funds exist in the first...
by venkman
Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Healthcare Fund vs. T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund
Replies: 4
Views: 421

Re: Vanguard Healthcare Fund vs. T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund

Median market-cap of the TRP fund is half that of the Vanguard fund ($25 vs. $50 billion). So, all other things being equal, you would expect the TRP fund to have both higher risk and higher return. Which is pretty much how it shows up in the PV backtesting--since 2008, PRHSX has had significantly h...
by venkman
Wed Jan 17, 2018 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Market
Replies: 30
Views: 2205

Re: Bond Market

If you are a buy-and-hold bond fund investor for the long term, you WANT interest rates to go up. The increase in interest payments will eventually make up for any capital losses. Let's say you buy an individual 5-year bond today that will yield a total of x dollars over its life in interest payment...
by venkman
Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was 2017 a unique year for the stock market?
Replies: 11
Views: 1890

Re: Was 2017 a unique year for the stock market?

I do remember reading that 2017 was the first year in which market returns were positive for every single calendar month.
by venkman
Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Book Suggestions
Replies: 14
Views: 899

Re: Book Suggestions

Harry Potter & the Small-Cap Value Tilt? :D
by venkman
Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman and Small Cap Value
Replies: 91
Views: 7656

Re: Paul Merriman and Small Cap Value

PS SCV does not "orbit" around the mean of TSM; it orbits around its own mean, which as far as we are aware is a greater expected return than the expected return of TSM with a greater expected volatility than that expected of TSM. Yeah, I probably could've phrased that better. I think what I meant ...
by venkman
Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Target Retirement Funds
Replies: 13
Views: 1546

Re: Target Retirement Funds

Hello. I currently hold two 401k investments: - Vanguard Target Retirement 2030 Fund (VTHRX) - Schwab Target 2030 SWDRX Straightforward question: Are these good choices? What is your opinion of target funds in general; and these specifically? Vanguard TR funds are a great choice. The Schwab fund ha...
by venkman
Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it fair to assume the U.S. and Ex-U.S. stock markets will exhibit reversion to the mean?
Replies: 5
Views: 693

Re: Is it fair to assume the U.S. and Ex-U.S. stock markets will exhibit reversion to the mean?

Basically investors often argue that rebalancing can improve returns because it forces you to buy low and sell high. However, this is only true if there is reversion to the mean between the two assets. Otherwise, you will sell the winning asset most of the time. So I want to know if this could lead...
by venkman
Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Visualizer
Replies: 3
Views: 465

Re: Portfolio Visualizer

I did a comparison of a growth portfolio 52% VTSMX, 28% VGTSX, 16% VBMFX and 4% PIGlX compared to 100% VBLTX (Bonds) and 100% VTSMX (equities). For a long run, Jan 2001 to Dec 2017 the 100% bonds outperformed the other portfolios all the way through. I have read that we have been on a bond bull run...
by venkman
Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyway to compare metrics of today w stock bubble in 2000
Replies: 26
Views: 2205

Re: Anyway to compare metrics of today w stock bubble in 2000

So are you guys saying that the similarities are there but do not indicate the same fundamentals? The big difference between than and now is interest rates. The yield on 5-year Treasuries just before the 2000 bear market was around 5%. If you didn't want the risk of stocks, you could still get some...
by venkman
Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it fair to assume the U.S. and Ex-U.S. stock markets will exhibit reversion to the mean?
Replies: 5
Views: 693

Re: Is it fair to assume the U.S. and Ex-U.S. stock markets will exhibit reversion to the mean?

2. If so, could one expect a 50/50 target allocation in the U.S. and Ex-U.S. markets--with no bonds or other assets--to have better returns in the long-term with a common re-balancing strategy (e.g. 5/25 rule) as opposed to no re-balancing? Or is this luck-dependent? If you don't care about volatil...
by venkman
Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What should I own on the bond side ???
Replies: 11
Views: 1596

Re: What should I own on the bond side ???

I do like VG Total Bond Market Index. A few posters have been saying that they would prefer CDs now over bond funds. I agree with them since I am assuming interest rates are more likely to go up rather than stay flat or go down. Suppose I invest $100,000 into a three year CD @ 2.2%, I will have abo...
by venkman
Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What should I own on the bond side ???
Replies: 11
Views: 1596

Re: What should I own on the bond side ???

The general BH philosophy is that you hold bonds for stability, not for return. For bonds that are part of a long-term investment portfolio, Vanguard's Total Bond Market Index is highly recommended. It's only had one negative year out of the last 15, and that was 2013, when it was down 2.15%. If you...
by venkman
Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey's Millionaire Study
Replies: 59
Views: 10168

Re: Dave Ramsey's Millionaire Study

Here's my other wish: That a lot of Boglehead millionaires will participate and indicate that majority of their investments are in Index funds and that they don't use a financial adviser. Maybe that will influence Dave on his condescending thoughts about Index funds......I can only hope! It would b...
by venkman
Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for Best Alternatives for VTMFX
Replies: 7
Views: 499

Re: Looking for Best Alternatives for VTMFX

VTSAX and VWITX (Intermediate Tax-Exempt) in about equal amounts (maybe just a tad more of VWITX) will give you effectively the same thing as VTMFX.
by venkman
Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "CAGR" of extra mortgage payments
Replies: 7
Views: 839

Re: "CAGR" of extra mortgage payments

I'm trying to look at it conceptually. Let's say you have a 100k mortgage at 4% (term is not necessarily important). Now, mentally split that into 2 different mortgages: one for 90k and one for 10k. You pay off the 90k mortgage entirely before you start on the 10k. During the time that you're paying...
by venkman
Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buffett on bonds
Replies: 34
Views: 4932

Re: Buffett on bonds

Opinions?? I know buffet has much more than the rest of us and he can invest differently. Since bonds have been poorly performing and will most likely be in the future. Should higher stock allocations be a wise move. I know the concerns (riding through the tough times managing risk close to retirem...
by venkman
Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on investing in Bond Funds
Replies: 6
Views: 525

Re: Thoughts on investing in Bond Funds

Now, a lot of folks use this as part of their 3 fund portfolio. Given the above can you make an argument as to why having say 20,30 or 40% of your asset alloction in a bond fund is still a good idea as opposed to going 100% equities if one has a 15-20 year time horizon? Is it purely for psychologic...
by venkman
Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Forget Customer Service--Vanguard has lousy Computers
Replies: 22
Views: 3118

Re: Forget Customer Service--Vanguard has lousy Computers

looks like the brokerage account allowed the OP to short stocks. Did he have margin enabled ? Is it at all possible to go short in IRA accounts ? I just have 3 regular brokerage accounts (TIRA, Roth, taxable). Never actively enabled any margin trading. And I never put in a short sale order (or a bu...
by venkman
Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Forget Customer Service--Vanguard has lousy Computers
Replies: 22
Views: 3118

Re: Forget Customer Service--Vanguard has lousy Computers

Was there really no indication? When I was trying to transfer to and from outside accounts there was a transfer link obviously on the account. Actually it is still there, so maybe it is there all the time. I'm not ruling out the possibility that there was some indication, and I just missed it. But ...
by venkman
Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Forget Customer Service--Vanguard has lousy Computers
Replies: 22
Views: 3118

Forget Customer Service--Vanguard has lousy Computers

Has anyone else had issues with their Vanguard online account? Let me preface this by saying it was partially to entirely my own fault, and I was able to fix it myself with minimal consequences and/or annoyance. But it's something that the computers never should have ALLOWED to happen. Situation: I ...
by venkman
Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What your 2017 returns would look like if you listened to these financial websites
Replies: 18
Views: 3708

Re: What your 2017 returns would look like if you listened to these financial websites

God, how I loathe the motley fools. I listened to a TMF podcast a while back where one of the brothers claimed something like a 1,600% alpha over the S&P because Amazon had been one of their stock picks back when it was trading for $3 a share. They seem like nice enough guys, but do they ever give ...
by venkman
Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio feedback.
Replies: 3
Views: 441

Re: Portfolio feedback.

2. I made the mistake of buying FUSVX instead of FSTVX in taxable. I regret this and I wish I could fix it. How bad is this decision and how do I fix it? I understand FUSVX doesn't represent the whole market and I am fine with it, but I am worried FSTVX might be more tax efficient? 4.2 Bonds in tax...
by venkman
Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VWIUX vs VBTLX in 24% tax bracket
Replies: 6
Views: 839

Re: VWIUX vs VBTLX in 24% tax bracket

Why is the SEC yield lagging so much for the Muni fund compared to the distributions, but almost identical for VBTLX? The most recent distribution in VWIUX was recorded as 2.83% 2.83/(1-0.24) = 3.72 (pre-tax equivalent) I think it's somewhat standard practice now for muni bonds to be sold at a prem...
by venkman
Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund
Replies: 3
Views: 869

Re: Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund

TBM has a significant percentage in US government bonds, which are the safest you can get. VWITX has most of its muni bonds rated AA or higher, and muni bonds tend to be safer than corporate bonds for a given credit rating. Average maturity and duration are comparable for both funds, so you would ex...
by venkman
Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 103
Views: 10187

Re: Small cap value vs. total market?

There is an argument against small cap outperformance that is based in changes to modern industrial structure: In short, the big companies are keeping the small guys down through the unprecedented power of network effects (due to technology) and monopoly (due to a weakened anti-trust regime). That'...
by venkman
Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If my employer matches my 401(k) contributions all the way up to the IRS maximum, should I fill it up before taxable?
Replies: 11
Views: 980

Re: If my employer matches my 401(k) contributions all the way up to the IRS maximum, should I fill it up before taxable

This seems to go against the conventional wisdom of dollar-cost averaging in the sense that the total per-month amount that gets invested changes in the middle of the year. However, it seems that, since I can't invest more than $2000 per month and have no employer match limitations, that putting mo...
by venkman
Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gambling vs Investing
Replies: 23
Views: 1857

Re: Gambling vs Investing

Usually when people debate what to call something a resolution can be had by defining the terms at issue and seeing what comes out. Personally I couldn't care less what picking stocks is called, but if someone does, then I would start by defining the two terms. Note it is entirely possible that sto...
by venkman
Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Evaluating bond fund NAV vs Return
Replies: 7
Views: 369

Re: Evaluating bond fund NAV vs Return

Well, I confess my confusion. I'm looking at both Vanguard Total Bond Market Fund (VBMFX) showing a YTD return of -.37 (on my TDA app) and the ETF (BND) which shows a YTD NAV of -.28 (on Morningstar). Which figure is meaningful for figuring expected return when anticipated yield (2.45%/2.56%) is in...
by venkman
Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Robo-Investors driving the market to insane levels?
Replies: 36
Views: 5152

Re: Are Robo-Investors driving the market to insane levels?

The pace at which the indices are rising without a real logical reason behind this kind of growth makes me wonder if the robots that place trades these days are responsible for this kind of skewed performance? For every robot who decides to get into the market right now, there must necessarily be a...
by venkman
Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the 3 fund portfolio seem somewhat flawed?
Replies: 79
Views: 5967

Re: "The enemy of a good plan"

Bogleheads should feel confident owning the biggest and most successful companies in the world. True, but the problem is that EVERYONE should feel confident owning the biggest, most successful companies in the world; and that relatively safety will result in lower expected returns. In the (somewhat...
by venkman
Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the S&P 500 Grow Faster Than the Economy?
Replies: 31
Views: 2904

Re: Does the S&P 500 Grow Faster Than the Economy?

This further raises the question: If the vast majority of investors don't reinvest their dividends, then is the long-term 6% real return of stocks (Siegel's constant) more of a theoretical construct, than a practical reality? In other words, if all stock investors en masse actually began reinvestin...
by venkman
Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real Estate Investing: Cash Purchase vs. Mortgage
Replies: 10
Views: 1015

Re: Real Estate Investing: Cash Purchase vs. Mortgage

A lot depends on what you would do with the cash instead if you got the mortgage. If you invested it in reasonably safe fixed income, you probably wouldn't be able to beat the rate on the mortgage. If you invested it in stocks for the long term, you might be able to get a better return. On the other...
by venkman
Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 103
Views: 10187

Re: Small cap value vs. total market?

Over the last 46 years, TSM had a Sharpe ratio of .42, whereas SCV had a Sharpe ratio of .59. So the risk-adjusted returns are much better with SCV. That's part of the reason that Larry Swedroe recommends SCV over TSM in the "Larry Portfolio." Fair enough. But SCV companies also have a significantl...
by venkman
Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Re-balance to bond and/or cash?
Replies: 14
Views: 901

Re: Re-balance to bond and/or cash?

I need to rebalance about $40,000 to $50,000. This would normally be a no brainer...take from equity, move to bond, and stay the course. However, with such growth in the market, I'm torn because I would like to capture some of that profit and protect it. Does it make sense to re-balance 100% to cas...
by venkman
Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 103
Views: 10187

Re: Small cap value vs. total market?

But you wouldn’t sub SCV and TSM one for one, would you? Shouldn’t the comparison be between TSM and SCV diluted with fixed income/cash? Does SCV give you, if not a free lunch, the claimed free dessert? Not really a free anything, I would say. SCV gives you greater expected return in exchange for t...
by venkman
Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article claims: Housing was the world’s best investment over the last 150 years
Replies: 14
Views: 1508

Re: Article claims: Housing was the world’s best investment over the last 150 years

I'd be interested to see if they accounted for upkeep on the houses when they computed the return. And it's nit-picking somewhat, but how much of the return was due to an increase in the value of the land? (i.e. What was the return on a given house vs. the return on the vacant lot next door?) And ev...
by venkman
Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What Should My Investment Strategy Be?
Replies: 7
Views: 588

Re: What Should My Investment Strategy Be?

First, read through the Getting started wiki here, and the other topics it links to. Second, this is a good read for people who are worried about investing at market high points: http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/ Assuming your income isn't too high, max out your Roth...
by venkman
Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Would your 401k bond fund ever be the one that does not have lowest ER offered?
Replies: 4
Views: 341

Re: Would your 401k bond fund ever be the one that does not have lowest ER offered?

FXSTX is an index fund that buys bonds, holds them, and distributes the income to shareholders. PTTRX is a managed fund that actively buys and sells bonds, in an attempt to make money off price differences, in addition to the bond income. Any extra return is most likely due to the fund taking added ...
by venkman
Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "New to Me" Money
Replies: 22
Views: 2835

Re: "New to Me" Money

My questions are very basic. Essentially, I need some help in determining what to do next. I'm assuming I could benefit from some professional help from a good financial planner (RIA?). If that's true, how do I pick one? I've interviewed a couple but I haven't yet felt a good vibe from them. I need...
by venkman
Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reinvest Dividends and Rebalancing?
Replies: 7
Views: 847

Re: Reinvest Dividends and Rebalancing?

I would also advise you use SpecID in regards to cost basis. This will allow you (barring changes to the tax code) to sell your highest-price-paid shares down the line in the event you sell shares, thereby reducing capital gains taxes. Ah okay. Thank you. This is an advantage of having dividends se...
by venkman
Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reinvest Dividends and Rebalancing?
Replies: 7
Views: 847

Re: Reinvest Dividends and Rebalancing?

If the primary purpose of this $10k is for your emergency fund, you should treat it as separate from your other assets and not consider it when rebalancing. If the primary purpose of this $10k is to to reduce volatility in your taxable account (i.e. you want an 80/20 allocation instead of your curre...
by venkman
Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Target Fund (Roth) - Anti-Bogle?
Replies: 10
Views: 948

Re: Target Fund (Roth) - Anti-Bogle?

TR funds may be anti-JACK Bogle, because they have a significant allocation to international stock.

They are not, however, anti-BogleHEAD. :happy
by venkman
Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds: TBM, Treasuries, TIPS, and cash.
Replies: 10
Views: 831

Re: Bonds: TBM, Treasuries, TIPS, and cash.

Not that I pretend to fully understand it all, but I think one of the big advantages of TBM is that you get diversification across the yield curve, which doesn't move uniformly. So, a big movement in one part of the yield curve could be partially offset by smaller movement in the other parts. You ca...
by venkman
Sun Dec 31, 2017 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Including non-tradable assets when rebalancing
Replies: 1
Views: 201

Re: Including non-tradable assets when rebalancing

I'm not saying you're wrong, but this approach seems overly complicated. Presumably, the point of retirement investing is to provide a replacement for some of the income one loses when they are no longer working. SS/pensions/etc. simply reduce the amount of income you need to replace with your retir...
by venkman
Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 114
Views: 10474

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

Anytime I concentrate in one type of stock, I am adding this type of "non-diversification" risk. This is entirely distinct from any consideration of whether I expect my favored stocks to provide excess return above the market. I know it's a fairly obvious point, but it gets lost in the discussion o...