Search found 793 matches

by venkman
Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity muni money market fund yields cratering...?
Replies: 7
Views: 754

Re: Fidelity muni money market fund yields cratering...?

sarabayo wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:16 pm
Am I right in thinking that prime money market funds would tend to have a more stable yield during the year?
Yes, they should be more closely tied to very short-term rates, with no seasonal variations.
by venkman
Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help/Advice/Thoughts
Replies: 8
Views: 538

Re: Help/Advice/Thoughts

When you've decided to leave your advisor, you can call up your preferred brokerage (Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab, etc.) and initiate a transfer of all your assets to them. Once the process is started, they will do most of the work for you. It's probably polite to give your advisor a heads up, and it ...
by venkman
Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity muni money market fund yields cratering...?
Replies: 7
Views: 754

Re: Fidelity muni money market fund yields cratering...?

It's apparently a seasonal thing. Some MMMF yield spikes and valleys can be explained by “seasonality.” For example, because a disproportionately high amount of municipal bonds are issued with July 1 interest payment dates and maturities, demand for short-term “holding place” investments like Muni V...
by venkman
Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Government shutdown and US Treasuries
Replies: 14
Views: 2042

Re: Government shutdown and US Treasuries

The time to worry about Treasuries is when it looks like the government won't raise the debt ceiling (I think that deadline is about a month or two away).
by venkman
Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Funds, Bond Ladders, and Interest-Only Retirement
Replies: 5
Views: 676

Re: Bond Funds, Bond Ladders, and Interest-Only Retirement

My question with regard to bond funds vs. bond ladders is not which is more consistent with their philosophy of never touching the principal; rather, it is more a question of which approach, within the confines of that philosophy, is "better" in terms of risk / stability and potential return. I wor...
by venkman
Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to minimize taxes when liquidating for mortgage downpayment
Replies: 1
Views: 252

Re: How to minimize taxes when liquidating for mortgage downpayment

What are your thoughts on this ? Does it make sense to liquidate the assets currently at a loss to minimize taxes ? How does short term capital loss work with long term capital gain when it comes to taxes ? Can I write off a portion of the long term capital gain (from RSUs) due to the short term ca...
by venkman
Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: low volatility funds in a Roth IRA
Replies: 12
Views: 879

Re: low volatility funds in a Roth IRA

Vanguard's website specifically states that you should NOT expect VMNVX to outperform over the long term. While the fund’s goal is to limit the volatility of global stock investing, we caution against expecting any low or minimum volatility investment to outperform, or even match, the global equity ...
by venkman
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Further diversifying the 60/40 portfoilio?
Replies: 29
Views: 3239

Re: Further diversifying the 60/40 portfoilio?

jjwpls wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:55 pm
What investment instrument would you recommend in order to reduce the existing portfolio's correlation with the US markets, as well as the portfolio's overall volatility?
Cash tends to be uncorrelated to both stocks and bonds.
by venkman
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question on future financial planning
Replies: 1
Views: 365

Re: Question on future financial planning

1. How much should I target for #2 - retirement? I think that $50k/year in today's money financed by our retirement accounts should be enough. Social Security (assuming 30% reduction post 2037) should give us about $3k/month. Is this reasonable or are there any big holes in my thinking? For calcula...
by venkman
Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTI to VTSAX... taxable event?
Replies: 12
Views: 1098

Re: VTI to VTSAX... taxable event?

More perspective... I have a current total capital loss in VTI of 162.77 and I'm in the 12% tax bracket. Probably half of my shares I've held less than a year. One thing to consider: If you're in the 12% income tax bracket, you should also be in the 0% capital gains bracket, which means you might e...
by venkman
Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Acitvely managed funds -> index funds
Replies: 9
Views: 1360

Re: Acitvely managed funds -> index funds

kingmountain wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:19 pm
I have several actively managed mutual funds in my taxable account listed below that I intend to exchange for index funds when there is a market downturn so I can tax loss harvest.
Um, are you waiting for a BIGGER market downturn than the ~20% drop we just had?
by venkman
Thu Jan 10, 2019 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: current portfolio, utilities?
Replies: 8
Views: 528

Re: current portfolio, utilities?

It probably won't make much difference in return either way; but I say if 5% in utilities helps you sleep better at night, do it.
by venkman
Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backtesting Results
Replies: 16
Views: 1176

Re: Backtesting Results

How do you get around cherry picking data to decide upon a "best" allocation (e.g. % to midcap, growth stocks, bonds, emerging markets, etc.)? The "best" allocation is unknowable, because your investment horizon is just another time period on the data charts (that we don't have data for yet). The o...
by venkman
Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using CAPE to switch between stocks and bonds
Replies: 4
Views: 477

Re: Using CAPE to switch between stocks and bonds

You'd have to REALLY believe in that strategy.

I can't imagine what it would have been like to be sitting 100% in bonds during that unprecedented run-up in the S&P from 1995-1999.
by venkman
Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.
Replies: 51
Views: 6853

Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Interestingly*, VSMGX is still in a drawdown, since peaking in late January 2018.


*not necessarily THAT interesting.
by venkman
Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What does 1 million @Vanguard get you ?
Replies: 35
Views: 7042

Re: What does 1 million @Vanguard get you ?

Considering moving about 975k to a VG Money Market account and living off the 2.3% / 2.4% interest monthly. That could be risky, if you're counting on that level of income. MM funds have stable principal, but their income level is anything but. If a recession hits and the Fed lowers rates, your MM ...
by venkman
Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modeling "withdrawing just income generated"
Replies: 30
Views: 2374

Re: Modeling "withdrawing just income generated"

Continuing with the analysis, it's amazing that even though principal increase, annual income actually trends down over time. And these numbers are in nominal numbers, which means that inflation-adjusted it's even worse. The worst year for income was 2003. Off-hand I can't recall any historic event...
by venkman
Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do bond funds try to avoid capital gains? especially in Tax Exempt?
Replies: 5
Views: 405

Re: Do bond funds try to avoid capital gains? especially in Tax Exempt?

Many municipal bonds are issued at a premium price with a higher-than-market coupon, so you end up getting the market yield with a low probability of capital gains. I think most muni funds tend toward buying those types of bonds, so it makes sense to expect gradual NAV erosion over the long term. I ...
by venkman
Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investing vs debt payoff?
Replies: 6
Views: 388

Re: Investing vs debt payoff?

The biggest factor is the interest rate on the debt vs. expected return on the investment.

Other factors include how one feels about holding debt, and the fact that tax-advantaged accounts have use-it-or-lose-it yearly contribution limits.
by venkman
Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please review my high return/risk Porfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 1099

Re: Please review my high return/risk Porfolio

Sounds like it has a better Sharpe ratio at lower return. Sometimes, it can take leverage to convert Sharpe ratio into higher return (and Bogleheads generally prefer not to mess with leverage). Yes, that. I've noticed in backtesting that bonds tend to have a higher Sharpe ratio than stocks during a...
by venkman
Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modeling "withdrawing just income generated"
Replies: 30
Views: 2374

Re: Modeling "withdrawing just income generated"

Go to the Backtest Portfolio section of Portfolio Visualizer. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio Change the "Display Income" option to Yes. That will bring up an option right below it for "Reinvest Dividends." Select No for that. Then just enter whatever funds you want to backtes...
by venkman
Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long bonds and duration risk and market efficiency
Replies: 47
Views: 2190

Re: Long bonds and duration risk and market efficiency

I have one simple question about bond duration. I have heard that, in general, investors have not been adequately compensated in bond yield from the risk taken of increasing maturity. If the market is truly efficient, how can this be? If you plan to hold a 30-year bond to maturity, duration risk is...
by venkman
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please review my high return/risk Porfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 1099

Re: Please review my high return/risk Porfolio

I'm a fan of VMNVX, but I'm not sure that it's designed to capture the low-volatility factor. I believe it's set up more to specifically minimize volatility in its returns, at the expense of long-term performance. The Fund Summary on Vanguard's website says: While the fund’s goal is to limit the vol...
by venkman
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Withdrawing from taxable.
Replies: 9
Views: 1147

Re: Withdrawing from taxable.

Wash sale rules apply if you buy 30 days before or after selling, so I think they would apply on the amount of your dividend and last purchase. On the other hand, there's nothing illegal about a wash sale; you just won't get to claim any losses on an amount equal to what you bought in December. Inst...
by venkman
Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a way to construct a decent three asset portfolio before efficient market exchagnes? (Investment theory)
Replies: 24
Views: 1011

Re: Is there a way to construct a decent three asset portfolio before efficient market exchagnes? (Investment theory)

The BH 3-fund portfolio didn't choose 3 funds because that was a magic number. It just happened to be the minimum number of asset classes needed to provide a broad level of diversification in the investment environment that exists today (And a good number of people here think you can do just fine wi...
by venkman
Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard Minimum Investment Cuts Overdue"
Replies: 47
Views: 4261

Re: "Vanguard Minimum Investment Cuts Overdue"

On the minimum required to own Federal, the official minimum is still Vanguard’s standard $3,000: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VMFXX but no doubt, Retiringwhen, you know the canny workaround for that. What is it? No minimum for VMFXX if it's your settlement fund. Which it is b...
by venkman
Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax considerations for municipal bond funds
Replies: 2
Views: 542

Re: Tax considerations for municipal bond funds

If you go to the "Portfolio & Management" tab on a Vanguard muni fund page, there's a table just under the style box that lists the percentage of AMT bonds held by the fund (just below Average Duration).

Example: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... olio/vwltx
by venkman
Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST [Entry deadline has passed]
Replies: 674
Views: 12393

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

2306.3

Didn't there use to be a separate website for this?
by venkman
Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taking advantage of higher interest rates
Replies: 5
Views: 961

Re: Taking advantage of higher interest rates

1-year brokered CD's were yielding (I believe) 2.8% about two months ago, when Treasury rates were peaking. As of today at Vanguard, 1-year brokered CD's are yielding 2.65%. There's no guarantee rates will go up from here.
by venkman
Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Value Fund FDVLX Performance - Time to Sell?
Replies: 1
Views: 212

Re: Fidelity Value Fund FDVLX Performance - Time to Sell?

FDVLX is down about 6.5% this year, which is on par with most large cap funds. If you sell now and immediately move to a total market fund, you would still be fully invested for the rebound (or for more losses--there's no guarantee this is a low point). Whether to sell it all now depends on your CG ...
by venkman
Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Video on Vanguard Wellington 5% Withdrawals 2001-2017 tell me what you think
Replies: 14
Views: 1728

Re: Video on Vanguard Wellington 5% Withdrawals 2001-2017 tell me what you think

If you were counting on that 5% to meet expenses, you fell significantly short in 2008 and 2009. (Assuming expenses were $5k in 2001, and adjusted annually for inflation.)

After 2007, you didn't get back to $5k/year (in 2001 dollars) until 2013.
by venkman
Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wash sale
Replies: 6
Views: 446

Re: Wash sale

I'm not an expert, but I think you're correct. If you sell your entire position and don't replace any of it, the wash sale rule doesn't apply.
by venkman
Fri Dec 28, 2018 9:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to afford a sports car?
Replies: 128
Views: 8941

Re: How to afford a sports car?

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=214509 One of the easiest ways to save money is buying an inexpensive car. I'll explain: The savings from buying a less expensive car are enormous. For example, Edmonds give the estimated five-year True Cost to Own of automobiles sold in the United St...
by venkman
Thu Dec 27, 2018 11:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question for the bond experts
Replies: 24
Views: 1415

Re: Question for the bond experts

In an efficient market, you should be able to exchange an old, low-coupon bond for a new, higher-coupon bond such that either option leaves you with the same amount of money at maturity (not counting transaction costs). The higher interest from the new bond cancels out the principal loss that you wo...
by venkman
Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not go all small cap value for equities?
Replies: 72
Views: 4418

Re: Why not go all small cap value for equities?

How much did it cost historically to invest in a diversified portfolio of small value stocks, as compared to large cap stocks? And how much analyst attention did SCV stocks get compared to large caps (less information = higher bid/ask spreads)? To put it another way, what was the historic return of ...
by venkman
Wed Dec 26, 2018 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: This is why you should not time the market
Replies: 38
Views: 5926

Re: This is why you should not time the market

After the huge rally today, the S&P is back to where it was last Friday at about 11:30am. I'm not advocating market timing, but anyone who got out a couple weeks ago and missed out on today's gain is still better off than the people who stayed in the whole way. I hate that "If You Missed the 10 Best...
by venkman
Wed Dec 26, 2018 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How compare rates for CD's vs Bond Funds? SEC Yield , Return,. Price Chart?
Replies: 15
Views: 1472

Re: How compare rates for CD's vs Bond Funds? SEC Yield , Return,. Price Chart?

In your situation, I think a CD ladder is a good choice. Brokered CD's tend to offer a premium rate over Treasuries because they are less liquid and are subject to state tax. Neither of those things matter within a long term retirement account. Your ladder will have an average rate of 2.9% in Year 1...
by venkman
Wed Dec 26, 2018 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why call them "losses" when you still own the shares?
Replies: 103
Views: 4887

Re: Why call them "losses" when you still own the shares?

Advanced Question: If your stocks go up 2% in the morning, then go down in the afternoon and finish the day even, have you suffered a "loss"?

Same question, but extend the time period to 2 days. Or a week. Or a month. Or a year.
by venkman
Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Enjoy a lump of KOL
Replies: 14
Views: 1971

Re: Enjoy a lump of KOL

There was probably a point where the buggy whip manufacturers looked pretty cheap, too... :twisted:
by venkman
Mon Dec 24, 2018 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Data on i-Bonds vs CDs?
Replies: 3
Views: 458

Re: Historical Data on i-Bonds vs CDs?

Current I-bond rates (0.50%) are about 50 basis points lower than regular TIPS, and the yield spread between TIPS and nominal Treasuries is estimating inflation at about 1.5% over the next 5 years. A 5-year brokered CD ladder purchased right now would have an average yield of 3.15% (adjust for state...
by venkman
Sat Dec 22, 2018 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Missing 12/21/2018 Bond Dividends Delayed
Replies: 43
Views: 4443

Re: Anyone Else Missing 12/21/2018 Bond Dividends?

It always takes at least until the day after the scheduled dividend activity date for the activity to actually show up in my VG account. I'm not an IT professional, but it seems like it would be a very easy fix to at least have my account show dividends are pending on the date they're supposed to be...
by venkman
Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting Fund Comparison
Replies: 8
Views: 492

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting Fund Comparison

Novice investor looking to see how you guys would compare (VOO) Vanguard S&P 500 ETF to (VINIX) Vanguard Institutional Index Fund Institutional Shares for tax loss harvesting purposes. You could just exchange VOO for VV (Large-cap Index). VV is essentially VOO, plus the next hundred or so stocks by...
by venkman
Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the total stock market so random?
Replies: 19
Views: 2844

Re: Why is the total stock market so random?

Because stocks are priced based on expectations, and expectations are constantly changing as new information comes in. Whether that new information increases or decreases expectations is always random and unknowable in advance.
by venkman
Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on long term treasuries
Replies: 8
Views: 718

Re: Thoughts on long term treasuries

I am getting interested in LT treasuries. Here's my rational: If the yield curve continues to invert, the LT treasuries should see an increase in price, in spite of interest increases (which are priced in already). If the economic fears of an ending cycle materialize, then large allocators will inc...
by venkman
Sun Dec 16, 2018 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was Eliminating Investor Class Shares a Mistake?
Replies: 16
Views: 2684

Re: Was Eliminating Investor Class Shares a Mistake?

If you're at all serious about investing money, it shouldn't take very long to save $1,000 in your Vanguard MM sweep account (which has no minimum). The actual dollar difference you could earn by building up $1k in a TR fund vs. building it up in a money market is insignificant. I think VG was able ...
by venkman
Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying the dividend
Replies: 18
Views: 1625

Re: Buying the dividend

The edge case is the point of my question. It’s mid December. Vanguard total stock market dividends will be announced in a week. Even vanguard acknowledges that there is a case for “not buying the dividend” VG has released estimated year-end distributions. VTI will be $0.64 per share, with an ex-di...
by venkman
Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Academic Argument for Expensive Mutual Funds"
Replies: 13
Views: 1186

Re: "The Academic Argument for Expensive Mutual Funds"

TL;DR:

A new "study" concludes:

High-fee mutual fund managers tend to invest in stocks that have a low profitably factor, so you would expect them to underperform.

But they don't underperform as much as you would expect; therefore, they add alpha.
by venkman
Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reinvesting Dividends in Taxable Account
Replies: 7
Views: 1041

Re: Reinvesting Dividends in Taxable Account

For someone in retirement is it better to reinvest my dividends in my 3 fund portfolio.or wait until the end of the year to rebalance? . Take my withdrawal necessary for my living expenses. Or take my dividends as can monthly ? Does it hurt you tax wise to reinvest or is it the same thing? You alwa...
by venkman
Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the 2008 recession help avoid severity of the next recession?
Replies: 40
Views: 2586

Re: Will the 2008 recession help avoid severity of the next recession?

My worry is that a recession might be extended/worse because Congress won't be as able to stimulate the economy with tax cuts, since the tax cuts were already enacted at the end of 2017, when (one could argue) the economy didn't need a stimulus.
by venkman
Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard Advisors Fiduciary? Fiduciary Rule is dead?
Replies: 6
Views: 848

Re: Is Vanguard Advisors Fiduciary? Fiduciary Rule is dead?

I have been reading about the Fiduciary Rule and read that the Fiduciary Rule has been dead since June 2018. The whole Fiduciary thing is confusing to me. The June 2018 ruling killed a Department of Labor mandate that financial advisors be held to a fiduciary standard when dealing with any retireme...