Search found 748 matches

by venkman
Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying the dividend
Replies: 18
Views: 1378

Re: Buying the dividend

The edge case is the point of my question. It’s mid December. Vanguard total stock market dividends will be announced in a week. Even vanguard acknowledges that there is a case for “not buying the dividend” VG has released estimated year-end distributions. VTI will be $0.64 per share, with an ex-di...
by venkman
Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Academic Argument for Expensive Mutual Funds"
Replies: 13
Views: 1025

Re: "The Academic Argument for Expensive Mutual Funds"

TL;DR:

A new "study" concludes:

High-fee mutual fund managers tend to invest in stocks that have a low profitably factor, so you would expect them to underperform.

But they don't underperform as much as you would expect; therefore, they add alpha.
by venkman
Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reinvesting Dividends in Taxable Account
Replies: 7
Views: 977

Re: Reinvesting Dividends in Taxable Account

For someone in retirement is it better to reinvest my dividends in my 3 fund portfolio.or wait until the end of the year to rebalance? . Take my withdrawal necessary for my living expenses. Or take my dividends as can monthly ? Does it hurt you tax wise to reinvest or is it the same thing? You alwa...
by venkman
Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the 2008 recession help avoid severity of the next recession?
Replies: 39
Views: 2224

Re: Will the 2008 recession help avoid severity of the next recession?

My worry is that a recession might be extended/worse because Congress won't be as able to stimulate the economy with tax cuts, since the tax cuts were already enacted at the end of 2017, when (one could argue) the economy didn't need a stimulus.
by venkman
Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard Advisors Fiduciary? Fiduciary Rule is dead?
Replies: 6
Views: 803

Re: Is Vanguard Advisors Fiduciary? Fiduciary Rule is dead?

I have been reading about the Fiduciary Rule and read that the Fiduciary Rule has been dead since June 2018. The whole Fiduciary thing is confusing to me. The June 2018 ruling killed a Department of Labor mandate that financial advisors be held to a fiduciary standard when dealing with any retireme...
by venkman
Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any market that is not inflated?
Replies: 58
Views: 3542

Re: Is there any market that is not inflated?

InvestInLife wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:05 am
I realize nobody knows nothin'. But in terms of pricing, is there any market that is expected to do better than flat over the next decade?
I very much expect 10-year zero-coupon Treasuries to return about 3% nominal over the next decade...
by venkman
Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax-Exempt Bonds for a 22%/24% Marginal Tax Rate?
Replies: 5
Views: 809

Re: Tax-Exempt Bonds for a 22%/24% Marginal Tax Rate?

I will say, having managed an older relative's portfolio, that munis might end up being better when you go on Medicare and start having to pay the IRMAA premiums. But that's not something you need to worry about for right now. Unfortunately, tax exempt interest is added to adjusted gross income to ...
by venkman
Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD's safer than Bond Funds?
Replies: 14
Views: 1476

Re: CD's safer than Bond Funds?

So, in the context of "bonds" in my retirement account, I wouldn't be selling them (I'm 50 years old). So with all that said: CD's seem very much safer because I won't lose 5% if interest rates go up my 1%. I'm in the camp that wants to take all my risk on the stock side. So, it seems like buying l...
by venkman
Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Non-brokered CD's available at Vanguard (for retirement accounts)?
Replies: 6
Views: 503

Re: Non-brokered CD's available at Vanguard (for retirement accounts)?

I'm guessing that brokered CD's don't pay as much. Are there other downsides? I'm considering buying CD's at Vanguard within my retirement accounts. Right now, a 5-year new issue brokered CD at Vanguard is yielding 3.50%, while a 5-year Treasury is yielding 2.77%, and VG's Intermediate-Term Treasur...
by venkman
Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax-Exempt Bonds for a 22%/24% Marginal Tax Rate?
Replies: 5
Views: 809

Re: Tax-Exempt Bonds for a 22%/24% Marginal Tax Rate?

I think over the long term, your returns on those 3 funds will be close enough that it won't matter too much. You could pick one or split the difference and go half taxable/half muni. I will say, having managed an older relative's portfolio, that munis might end up being better when you go on Medica...
by venkman
Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Investment Strategy Group - benefit to me?
Replies: 3
Views: 534

Re: Vanguard Investment Strategy Group - benefit to me?

Remember that Vanguard also operates quite a few actively managed funds, so they have plenty of affiliated professionals who are getting paid from the higher ER's of those funds.
by venkman
Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: Your love of index funds is terrible for our economy
Replies: 59
Views: 6276

Re: Article: Your love of index funds is terrible for our economy

So once selling gets going, individual investors panic and ramp up selling, pushing the same stocks down even more.
He misspelled "Automated Trading Algorithms of Institutional Active Investors"....
by venkman
Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SPIA or CD Ladder
Replies: 31
Views: 2301

Re: SPIA or CD Ladder

Would a CD ladder accomplish the same thing as the SPIA? Is there any advantage/disadvantage of one over the other? Immediateannuities.com is showing a $960 monthly payout for a $100k, 10-year certain (non-life) annuity. Based on a quick spreadsheet I did, if you instead put the entire $100k in a b...
by venkman
Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Wellesly Income
Replies: 45
Views: 5703

Re: Vanguard Wellesly Income

But from all my own research (a great deal), the Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund is the solution for me. Great asset allocation and inexpensive. Plus, they were only down ~9.8% in 2008! I could definitely handle that psychologically. Wellesley was down 9.8% for the calendar year 2008, but then it dr...
by venkman
Sun Dec 09, 2018 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International underperformance - how to break it down
Replies: 52
Views: 4049

Re: International underperformance - how to break it down

Don't let the chart scaling fool you, returns for international stocks were so much less than US that the US chart goes to $10,000 and the World ex-US chart only goes to $1,000. If you don't like this date range, which is close to "all available data," then state the date range you think should be ...
by venkman
Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Analysis of the Talmudic and the Boglehead Three Fund, asset class comparison, compared with a gold diversified 3 fund
Replies: 11
Views: 1418

Re: Analysis of the Talmudic and the Boglehead Three Fund, asset class comparison, compared with a gold diversified 3 fu

Since 2005 (first full calendar year for VNQ), VNQ has a correlation with VTI of 0.73. Not lockstep. but hardly non-correlated. REITS have certainly had lower correlation to US stocks than have international stocks - and higher returns. I don't disagree, but I'm not sure what your point is. They’ve...
by venkman
Mon Dec 03, 2018 11:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Analysis of the Talmudic and the Boglehead Three Fund, asset class comparison, compared with a gold diversified 3 fund
Replies: 11
Views: 1418

Re: Analysis of the Talmudic and the Boglehead Three Fund, asset class comparison, compared with a gold diversified 3 fu

columbia wrote:
Mon Dec 03, 2018 11:36 pm
venkman wrote:
Mon Dec 03, 2018 11:12 pm
Since 2005 (first full calendar year for VNQ), VNQ has a correlation with VTI of 0.73. Not lockstep. but hardly non-correlated.
REITS have certainly had lower correlation to US stocks than have international stocks - and higher returns.
I don't disagree, but I'm not sure what your point is.
by venkman
Mon Dec 03, 2018 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Selling stock +?
Replies: 7
Views: 846

Re: Selling stock +?

Could you just take the dividends in cash instead of having them reinvested? That would presumably avoid the fee, and you'd stop adding to your position. PPL is around $31/share right now, so you have about $37,000 worth. Even if that entire amount was a capital gain, you'd only be looking at ~$5500...
by venkman
Mon Dec 03, 2018 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Analysis of the Talmudic and the Boglehead Three Fund, asset class comparison, compared with a gold diversified 3 fund
Replies: 11
Views: 1418

Re: Analysis of the Talmudic and the Boglehead Three Fund, asset class comparison, compared with a gold diversified 3 fu

We have two high risk(real estate tenant risk, and REIT overvaluation) and or volatility(stocks) that are inversely or non correlated. This adds diversification among two high growth assets. (land can be considered an income asset as well) Since 2005 (first full calendar year for VNQ), VNQ has a co...
by venkman
Mon Dec 03, 2018 10:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting with Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bond Fund Admiral
Replies: 5
Views: 429

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting with Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bond Fund Admiral

I have approximately $150,000 in VFSUX with about a $3,000 loss,i.e. a current cost basis of $153,000 . (Yielding 3.44%) 1. Which Vanguard fund should I use as the substitute fund for the next 30 days to avoid having a wash sale? The best yield that I can find is VSGDX (Vanguard Short Term Federal ...
by venkman
Wed Nov 28, 2018 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS, secondary mkt, yield to worst/maturity
Replies: 3
Views: 331

Re: TIPS, secondary mkt, yield to worst/maturity

Yield To Worst should be exactly the same as Yield To Maturity for any non-callable bond.
by venkman
Mon Nov 26, 2018 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Good newsletters for speculative investments?
Replies: 14
Views: 918

Re: Good newsletters for speculative investments?

Step 1: Wait for Tesla to drop below ~$270, then buy.
Step 2: Wait for Tesla to climb above ~$350, then sell.
Step 3: Repeat every 2-3 months. :happy
by venkman
Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worst investing year ever....
Replies: 73
Views: 11324

Re: Worst investing year ever....

Looking at Vanguard's website, the following are up YTD: -Short term bonds (treasuries, corporates, and munis) -US Large cap growth and blend -US Mid-cap growth -US Small-cap growth and blend So, if you don't count the asset classes that probably make up a majority of what most BH's invest in, this ...
by venkman
Sun Nov 25, 2018 11:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to investing, how would I select appropriate bonds?
Replies: 19
Views: 1506

Re: New to investing, how would I select appropriate bonds?

Thank you! I appreciate the information. I was surprised to see the 5 year bond returns look lower than a vanguard money market account! Am I thinking correctly? Past returns are a poor predictor of future returns when it comes to bond funds. A much better predictor is the current SEC yield. Bond p...
by venkman
Sun Nov 25, 2018 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Weight:effect of Individual Stock and EM
Replies: 6
Views: 553

Re: Market Weight:effect of Individual Stock and EM

Part of the effect Netflix's growth had on the market was to take down companies that were already part of the market (e.g. Blockbuster). It's hard to pinpoint how much the market expanded due to Netflix vs. how much of the existing market was replaced by Netflix. The advantage of owning a total mar...
by venkman
Sat Nov 24, 2018 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to investing, how would I select appropriate bonds?
Replies: 19
Views: 1506

Re: New to investing, how would I select appropriate bonds?

Thank you, as noted above, I'm a newbie, so would you be kind enough to clarify what you mean by shorter duration funds? Are you saying that if I bought something like VBTLX that I cant sell that for a certain period of time, or that I'd incur a penalty for doing so? Short answer: Duration is a mea...
by venkman
Sat Nov 24, 2018 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Anchor Strategy"?
Replies: 9
Views: 1678

Re: "Anchor Strategy"?

Interesting dinner converation with my recently retired buddy last night. He is with fidelity and has most of his portfolio in a balanced fund. He meets with his FA once a year and is charged an AUM fee that works out to about $1500 per quarter. Otherwise he seems BHish... "Other than that, Mrs. Li...
by venkman
Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment strategy - timing issue
Replies: 23
Views: 1453

Re: Investment strategy - timing issue

Time for this to come around on the guitar again: :happy

What if You Only Invested at Market Peaks?
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/0 ... ket-timer/
by venkman
Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does a "Larry" portfolio work in the current interest rate environment?
Replies: 23
Views: 2041

Re: Does a "Larry" portfolio work in the current interest rate environment?

Well, I'm trying to go with a data-driven approach. 8%-9% compounded annually for 10-15 years is sufficient to get me to my target. Is your claim here that the data doesn't support that rate of return with that allocation? There are a number of similar portfolios published in Black Swans and Swedro...
by venkman
Wed Nov 21, 2018 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you need to invest mostly in stocks to get rich?
Replies: 178
Views: 17015

Re: Do you need to invest mostly in stocks to get rich?

Any investment that produces a positive real return will make you rich, if your time horizon is long enough... :happy
by venkman
Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 57
Views: 7813

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

2 years is the sweet spot if you're talking about duration risk and return. It's not necessarily the sweet spot if you factor in reinvestment risk. The people who are only getting a few extra bps for their 5- and 10-year bonds are also getting a longer period of protection against a recession and t...
by venkman
Mon Nov 19, 2018 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Basic re-balancing questions
Replies: 4
Views: 503

Re: Basic re-balancing questions

By contrast if your stock % is getting too high and you have to sell stocks within your taxable account to achieve a higher bond % you have no choice but to sell the stocks to accomplish this correct? If you're making ongoing contributions to your 401k, you can set all new contributions to buy bond...
by venkman
Mon Nov 19, 2018 1:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 57
Views: 7813

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

If trading and taxes are not an issue, you always invest at the steepest part of the curve. That needs a lot more precision, I know. But currently 2Yr is at that sweet spot (as anything beyond that gets something like 2-3 bps of additional yield premium per year of duration). 2 years is the sweet s...
by venkman
Sun Nov 18, 2018 1:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small Value tilt Q
Replies: 23
Views: 1107

Re: Small Value tilt Q

Question: Would a 10% small value tilt really be considered a 25% small cap tilt as the total stock market index fund is 15% small cap per the bogleheads article below?? A tilt means an allocation that differs from the market. A total US stock market fund, by definition, has no tilt toward anything...
by venkman
Sun Nov 18, 2018 1:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 57
Views: 7813

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

Following that link, the DFA/Swedroe rule would call for 2 year CDs, since the added rate by extending to three years is just .15%. Thanks WillThrill. But the 5-year CD rate is 120 basis points higher than the 1-year CD, for an extra 30 bps per year. Compared to any of the other lengths offered, th...
by venkman
Sun Nov 18, 2018 12:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Zero Financial
Replies: 5
Views: 918

Re: Zero Financial

It seems like there would be a very small overlap between people who who are worried about overspending on their credit card and people who would happily spend $100k to get 3% cash back...
by venkman
Sat Nov 17, 2018 1:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Index Fund - What account to place it in?
Replies: 3
Views: 678

Re: Bond Index Fund - What account to place it in?

Either 401k should work for your bonds. Since 401k withdrawals and bond interest are both taxed as regular income, you don't sacrifice anything by putting the bonds there.
by venkman
Sat Nov 17, 2018 1:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the true expense of buying an ETF vs a mutual fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 2407

Re: What is the true expense of buying an ETF vs a mutual fund?

The spread for VTI is tiny (on the order of 1 bp). It's pretty much insignificant compared to the intra-day price fluctuations.

https://advisors.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip ... daskspread
by venkman
Fri Nov 16, 2018 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment advisors- is regulatory burden higher on fiduciaries?
Replies: 51
Views: 2153

Re: Investment advisors- is regulatory burden higher on fiduciaries?

You could whoop and holler all day about my exorbitant, outrageous, criminal 1% fee. But the fact is--these people are going to pay somebody. They might as well pay me, because I at least know what I'm doing. I haven't personally used Vanguard's Personal Advisory Service, but I presume they also kn...
by venkman
Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Satisfied with 3% Returns for the last 10 years of working?
Replies: 13
Views: 2206

Re: Satisfied with 3% Returns for the last 10 years of working?

The Bond Tent is a strategy that some people use to protect against sequence of returns risk in the years before and just after retirement.

https://www.kitces.com/blog/managing-po ... -red-zone/
by venkman
Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment advisors- is regulatory burden higher on fiduciaries?
Replies: 51
Views: 2153

Re: Investment advisors- is regulatory burden higher on fiduciaries?

No, I don't. I have to be able to do better than you would have done on your own, and for 95% of the people in the US, that's not hard to do, because you would have earned 0.0% on your own. You have to be coerced, cajoled, pushed, poked, prodded, and persuaded to save any money at all, and when you...
by venkman
Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do BHs care about real asset value or stay in course?
Replies: 13
Views: 1272

Re: Do BHs care about real asset value or stay in course?

Staying the Course is a simple way of getting around the "Market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" problem...
by venkman
Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard investor class shares on their way out?
Replies: 88
Views: 8412

Re: Vanguard investor class shares on their way out?

I don't see the merging of shares classes resulting in a fee increase given what happened with Fidelity and VGs own pricing of its ETFs. Also, VG already waives Admiral minimums in certain 401k and HSA situations. I could see the minimums change if Fidelity is able to make a significant dent in the...
by venkman
Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment advisors- is regulatory burden higher on fiduciaries?
Replies: 51
Views: 2153

Re: Investment advisors- is regulatory burden higher on fiduciaries?

Yeah, I have mentioned to him that fees matter, but he seems to think his guy can pick the right active fund. Now I just say I have done the arithmetic and only use index funds. "When you know enough to choose a good financial advisor, you no longer need one." On the other hand, it sounds like your...
by venkman
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard investor class shares on their way out?
Replies: 88
Views: 8412

Re: Vanguard investor class shares on their way out?

An extra 10 basis points on an amount below the $10k minimum for Admiral index shares adds up at most to less than $10/year. If you plan to keep and add to your investments at Vanguard for the long term, you're much better off paying the higher ER on a small amount than you would be if everything go...
by venkman
Sat Nov 10, 2018 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help to understand bonds maturity vs investment timeline
Replies: 3
Views: 400

Re: Help to understand bonds maturity vs investment timeline

If you have plans to take the money at a certain time, you want your interest rate risk to decline as your time horizon decreases. The issue with most bond funds is that they maintain a more or less constant duration. A fund with a 5-year duration will still have a 5-year duration in 4.9 years, when...
by venkman
Sat Nov 10, 2018 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Muni Bond funds and Capital Gains
Replies: 11
Views: 1176

Re: Muni Bond funds and Capital Gains

VG's national muni funds tend to own mostly premium bonds, so they typically won't have much in the way of capital gains.
by venkman
Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial coaching - license / certificate?
Replies: 6
Views: 583

Re: Financial coaching - license / certificate?

Hi everyone, Quick question: Do you need any kind of license / certificate to start a personal finance coaching business? I would believe you don't given the nature of the business itself (helping people look at their finances, not selling any kind of particular product). Where it gets tricky thoug...
by venkman
Sun Nov 04, 2018 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield in bond funds
Replies: 2
Views: 443

Re: Yield in bond funds

Since interest rates have gone up significantly over the past year, a lot of bond funds have a distribution yield that is lower than their stated SEC yield. Essentially, by buying a bond fund now, you're buying a lot of older bonds at below par value, which means part of that 3.35% yield will come i...
by venkman
Thu Nov 01, 2018 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds vs CDs
Replies: 39
Views: 4433

Re: Bonds vs CDs

One-month Treasury bills are currently yielding 2.21%, are exempt from state and local taxes, and can be automatically rolled over at many brokerages. If you expect interest rates to rise, T-bills look like the better deal right now.