Search found 1158 matches

by venkman
Fri May 22, 2020 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett "Most People Shouldn't Pick Individual Stocks"
Replies: 36
Views: 2683

Re: Warren Buffett "Most People Shouldn't Pick Individual Stocks"

Are we sure this isn't a trick by Buffett to get people to dump their shares of BRK, so he can buy them up on the cheap? :D
by venkman
Tue May 12, 2020 9:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: [Have target date funds - How to withdrawal in retirement?]
Replies: 12
Views: 867

Re: [Have target date funds - How to withdrawal in retirement?]

If you aren't already, you might want to start having all your dividends sent to cash rather than being reinvested. If you keep a small cash bucket and replenish it with dividends, you can go for several years without needing to sell anything.
by venkman
Sun May 10, 2020 10:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: delete
Replies: 39
Views: 7247

Re: iamblessed

Thanks. Given that retirements can last 30+ yrs, how do you reduce the risk of the annuity company going bankrupt? Use multiple well rated companies to the limit. And what is the insured limit? I'm not an expert on the subject, but I believe each state has a Guaranty Association that insures insura...
by venkman
Sun May 10, 2020 9:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why no love for REITs?
Replies: 102
Views: 8708

Re: Why no love for REITs?

REIT's used to be popular because it was thought they were a distinct asset class and had low correlation to the broad stock market. And they did great during the 2000-2002 bear market when growth stocks were getting killed. Since then, it's been determined that REIT returns can be explained by othe...
by venkman
Sun May 10, 2020 9:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond fund yields
Replies: 12
Views: 1251

Re: Bond fund yields

SEC yield is the best predictor of future returns. If the distribution yield is higher than the SEC yield, you can expect the NAV of the fund to decline to account for the difference.
by venkman
Thu May 07, 2020 9:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: delete
Replies: 39
Views: 7247

Re: iamblessed

Is there an inflation protected option for annuity and how much would that cost? I used http://www.immediateannuities.com to get the quote. You can get a quote for an inflation-indexed annuity, but you have to get it through e-mail. From what I've heard, there aren't a lot of companies left that of...
by venkman
Wed May 06, 2020 1:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: delete
Replies: 39
Views: 7247

Re: iamblessed

hi spending all the distributions takes reinvestment toward additional shares off the table, you would have to rely totally on nav growth to grow the portfolio a lot depends on how concerned you are about your portfolio's final value 1) do you want to grow the portfolio over your retirement 2) do y...
by venkman
Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?
Replies: 110
Views: 7909

Re: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?

My gut feeling is that the market is being too optimistic about the resolution of this virus and the ability to reopen the economy sooner rather than later. I don't see the US implementing a comprehensive system for testing and contract tracing anytime soon; and if relaxed social distancing causes e...
by venkman
Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really better to lump sum now rather than wait for the next correction?
Replies: 27
Views: 2297

Re: Is it really better to lump sum now rather than wait for the next correction?

On the other hand, let's say they kept their 1 million in a cash-like investment (CD, money market, savings account, etc.) yielding about 1%. They could wait for the next market crash. For argument's sake, let's suppose this crash is a 50% drop in equities that occurs in 10 years. The problem with ...
by venkman
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Likelihood of size and value factor returns being positive in future
Replies: 89
Views: 2791

Re: Likelihood of size and value factor returns being positive in future

This is all fine. What I don't understand is: what is the rationale behind the expectation that these factors will continue to provide positive returns? Diversification benefit is only valid if return expectation is positive. The theoretical rationale is that small and/or value companies have a hig...
by venkman
Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding Other Investments to Target Date Retirement Fund
Replies: 6
Views: 464

Re: Adding Other Investments to Target Date Retirement Fund

However, I do continue to read and educate myself on investing. And after studying Rick Ferri’s work, I am becoming increasingly intrigued that his bond portfolio may make some sense: 60% Total Bond Market 20% TIPS 20% High-Yield Corporate Bonds If one wanted to add a couple of funds, but still hol...
by venkman
Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to Put Safer/More Conservative Investments Right Now?
Replies: 25
Views: 2304

Re: Where to Put Safer/More Conservative Investments Right Now?

There's no guarantee that interest rates will go significantly higher anytime soon. Even if they did, it would ultimately be a good thing for bond fund holders. There would be an initial loss, but that would be made up for as older bonds and dividends were reinvested at higher rates. That being said...
by venkman
Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone preparing to sell all their stock holdings to raise cash?
Replies: 36
Views: 3111

Re: Anyone preparing to sell all their stock holdings to raise cash?

I'm not selling anything extra, but I have been aggressively rebalancing into the rally. If the market jumps up tomorrow, I'll be selling off enough to end the day at my AA. I think the market is getting excited about the virus starting to peak, and assuming social distancing is going to start taper...
by venkman
Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do REIT funds add any value?
Replies: 7
Views: 808

Re: Do REIT funds add any value?

REIT returns can be explained by their exposure to underlying factors. I can't find the link, but someone did an analysis and determined that REIT's behave like a portfolio of 2/3 small value stocks and 1/3 long term corporate bonds. If you want a sector with low correlation to the broad market, uti...
by venkman
Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now
Replies: 128
Views: 13144

Re: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now

"You'd be crazy to hold bonds right now" is the new "Nobody goes there anymore because it's too crowded."
by venkman
Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Vanguard or any other institution offer the ability to customize index funds?
Replies: 40
Views: 1881

Re: Does Vanguard or any other institution offer the ability to customize index funds?

ArmchairArchitect wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:05 pm
Anyone offer customizable index funds?
When you customize it, it stops being an index fund.
by venkman
Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TLH Suggestions for VMNVX ?
Replies: 8
Views: 419

Re: TLH Suggestions for VMNVX ?

I would think Total World Stock Market (VTWAX/VT) would track well enough for 30 days, until you could get back into VMNVX.
by venkman
Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One Fund for Accumulation - Portfolio Visualizer Says Wellington
Replies: 12
Views: 1264

Re: One Fund for Accumulation - Portfolio Visualizer Says Wellington

Wellington beats TD and LS funds in recent backtesting because TD and LS funds have a much higher allocation to international stocks, which have performed poorly over the past decade, relative to US stocks. Whether this trend will continue is unknown, though it's certainly not likely to continue for...
by venkman
Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Will negative yields lead to increased risk-taking?
Replies: 23
Views: 1524

Re: Swedroe: Will negative yields lead to increased risk-taking?

If enough investors refuse to accept negative yields, then there won't be negative yields...
by venkman
Thu Apr 02, 2020 9:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard's new Robo-Advisor not an ideal choice for all investors ...
Replies: 7
Views: 1095

Re: Vanguard's new Robo-Advisor not an ideal choice for all investors ...

My guess is that the target audience for robo-advisors is people who think splitting up a 3-fund portfolio into its smaller component parts somehow results in a significant amount of added value.
by venkman
Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The most long-term-profitable emotion in investing.
Replies: 48
Views: 2629

Re: The most long-term-profitable emotion in investing.

Greed and fear, but you have to time them right. :D
by venkman
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is now the absolute worst time to do a rollover?
Replies: 20
Views: 1626

Re: Is now the absolute worst time to do a rollover?

Could you do an in-kind rollover? If you can get everything to Vanguard, you should be able to exchange old assets for new ones on the same day.

It might cost a little bit to sell off the non-VG funds, but that's trivial compared to a day's worth of market movement.
by venkman
Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: List of Vanguard "Wash Sale" Equivalents?
Replies: 3
Views: 420

Re: List of Vanguard "Wash Sale" Equivalents?

The general rule of thumb is that you're fine as long as you switch to a fund that tracks a different index, even if it's very similar to your original fund. Aside from different share classes of the same fund, I don't think Vanguard has more than one fund that tracks any given index.
by venkman
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can this trigger Wash Sale Rule tomorrow ?
Replies: 8
Views: 452

Re: Can this trigger Wash Sale Rule tomorrow ?

A wash sale only applies when you replace shares that you sell (either before or after the sale). If you sell your entire position (and don't buy any of it back for at least 31 days), you won't have replaced any shares; so your entire $4400 loss should be allowed.
by venkman
Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond funds and coronavirus.
Replies: 48
Views: 3604

Re: Bond funds and coronavirus.

ie: What is a projected worst-case resulting drop for BND price if many Baa's reset to lower grade and have to exit portfolio, and/or default? Is it reasonable to base a projection on the previous biggest drawdown of approx 6%, with a 4 month recovery? For planning purposes, I'd say it would be rea...
by venkman
Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond funds and coronavirus.
Replies: 48
Views: 3604

Re: Bond funds and coronavirus.

BND rated "2" low risk and recommended as bond component for 3-fund, so don't expect to change anything. Just trying to get a handle on how low BND could potentially drop if Bad Stars come into alignment. Vanguard's Total Bond fund dates all the way back to 1987. Since then, its biggest drawdown ha...
by venkman
Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the market impressed with the stimulus package?
Replies: 57
Views: 4212

Re: Why is the market impressed with the stimulus package?

I think the trading algorithms got a bad case of FOMO.

S&P 500 went up about 6% within the last half hour of trading.
by venkman
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will happen to bond market if rate goes to 0 or negative?
Replies: 4
Views: 604

Re: What will happen to bond market if rate goes to 0 or negative?

Yield is a function of price. Price is determined by supply and demand.

If bond yields go to 0 or below, it will be because there was very high demand for bonds, relative to the supply. There's no way bonds can hit negative yields unless a lot of buyers are willing to accept negative yields.
by venkman
Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bought within last 30 days -- can I TLH?
Replies: 6
Views: 571

Re: Bought within last 30 days -- can I TLH?

What if I sell all my <30 days shares but only some of my total holdings? The lots that I've held since 2016 are up quite a bit and my overall position is still a net gain, so I can only TLH by selling some of the lots. I think you'd be okay. I found an example that seems to be on point: https://fa...
by venkman
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bought within last 30 days -- can I TLH?
Replies: 6
Views: 571

Re: Bought within last 30 days -- can I TLH?

I'm not a tax person, so don't rely on my advice. But my understanding is that wash sale rules only apply to replacement shares purchased 30 days before or after the sale. If you sell your entire position and don't buy it back, there can't be a wash sale. I believe VTI and SCHB track slightly differ...
by venkman
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you use Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth in taxable if you were in the 12% bracket?
Replies: 5
Views: 494

Re: Would you use Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth in taxable if you were in the 12% bracket?

If I were going for a 60/40 AA, I would be okay with using it in taxable. The main reason I wouldn't do it in the 12% bracket would be the opportunity for tax gain harvesting. When you sell a LS fund (or most other VG funds), you can't buy back in for 30 days. If you make your own LS fund out of ETF...
by venkman
Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could this selloff be nearly over?
Replies: 68
Views: 5264

Re: Could this selloff be nearly over?

We won't need a vaccine or treatments for the market to bounce back. People will soon realize that this is just a bad flu as they wake up to what's going on in Korea-- their aggressive testing strategy is the model for successful containment and has shown a lower-than-thought true death rate around...
by venkman
Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Toilet Paper Hoarders = Shoeshine boy stock tips?
Replies: 41
Views: 2759

Re: Toilet Paper Hoarders = Shoeshine boy stock tips?

Haven't people been buying toilet paper at Costco pretty much since Costco became a thing? The fact that customers are buying a particular product in bulk at a store whose business model is to sell things in bulk doesn't really seem like cause for alarm...
by venkman
Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett purchased a million more shares in the recent sell-off. Are you smarter?
Replies: 27
Views: 3474

Re: Warren Buffett purchased a million more shares in the recent sell-off. Are you smarter?

For comparison purposes:

If you had a million-dollar portfolio, this would be like you buying 2 shares of Delta.
by venkman
Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Visualizer Question
Replies: 4
Views: 376

Re: Portfolio Visualizer Question

It defaults to reinvesting dividends, but you can set it so it doesn't. Change the "Display Income" option to "Yes," and a "Reinvest Dividends" option will appear just below that. Change that to "No" and it will calculate the performance without reinvested dividends.
by venkman
Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Installing solar - worth it?
Replies: 70
Views: 4111

Re: Installing solar - worth it?

The numbers are kinda hard to pin down, but my guess is that you could save a significant amount of money over the long term. CA has above-average electricity rates (~19 cents/kWh, from what I can tell). After incentives, the total lifetime cost of electricity from a rooftop solar system should come...
by venkman
Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121851

Re: I put my trend following strategy on hold for one week

I'm not especially for or against your strategy; but my question is how do you factor all this in when comparing the returns of your trend-following strategy to [whatever other strategies you want to compare them to]? Since you deviated from it, your real-world returns no longer reflect the returns ...
by venkman
Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corona virus, stock market gyrations & Jack Bogle
Replies: 41
Views: 3123

Re: Corona virus, stock market gyrations & Jack Bogle

This is a virus that spreads through person to person contact, and can present with relatively mild symptoms. There are millions of people in the US who will go to their job anyway if they have mild symptoms, because they can't afford to miss work. A lot of them work in jobs where they have close co...
by venkman
Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing or Speculating?
Replies: 13
Views: 1224

Re: Investing or Speculating?

Lesson learned: It is dangerous betting on one part of the global stock market:
Total US Market (VTI): -0.53%
Total World Market (VT): -0.19%
Total Intl. Market (VXUS): +0.17%
by venkman
Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Active vs. Passive Question
Replies: 10
Views: 1156

Re: Active vs. Passive Question

Within a given universe of stocks, the aggregate of active funds and the aggregate of passive funds will have the exact same return, before costs and fees. After costs and fees, the average passive fund, because of its lower expenses, must necessarily outperform the average active fund. This formula...
by venkman
Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett: American public has been going ‘wild’ with enthusiasm for index funds
Replies: 9
Views: 3304

Re: Buffett: American public has been going ‘wild’ with enthusiasm for index funds

Maybe it's just that everyone has been front-running the S&P 500, in anticipation of the day when Warren Buffett passes, and 90% of his gajillion-dollar estate gets put into an index fund for his wife... :D
by venkman
Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Yield vs. Money Market Yield
Replies: 19
Views: 2043

Re: Bond Yield vs. Money Market Yield

My surprise at the yield similarity stems from this: my understanding is that the Bond fund has significant interest rate risk, but the money market fund has none. So I assumed that investors would demand a significantly higher yield from the bond fund in order to take on that risk. But it appears ...
by venkman
Fri Feb 21, 2020 1:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds vs dividend funds
Replies: 28
Views: 2437

Re: Bonds vs dividend funds

I am rebalancing from a 90/10 portfolio and struggling with idea of buying bonds when interest rates are so low I am planning for retirement in 8 to 10 years spouse will have modest pension which is why I have been staying aggressive Bonds yielding 1.5% start to look really good when stocks are dec...
by venkman
Fri Feb 21, 2020 1:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this a dumb idea?
Replies: 15
Views: 1534

Re: Is this a dumb idea?

A 13-percentage-point differential in stock allocation is not going to make a huge difference either way in the short-to-intermediate term. I say just split the difference, go with a 75/25 AA, and count it as a partial win whichever way the market goes. :happy
by venkman
Thu Feb 20, 2020 12:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I sold all my Apple shares today.
Replies: 40
Views: 6820

Re: I sold all my Apple shares today.

I do not have emotional attachments to stocks. I do have emotional attachments to people, and some of my favorite charities. I'm not familiar with how Vanguard DAF works. Do you actually sell when you put them in the DAF? When you distribute the shares to your charity of choice, do they have to sel...
by venkman
Mon Feb 17, 2020 1:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Old high-fee fund, should we sell?
Replies: 6
Views: 713

Re: Old high-fee fund, should we sell?

The longer you wait, the more capital gains will accrue (absent a market crash), and you'll be paying ~$180 a year in fees. I say dump it.

Or, if you give to charity at all, use it to start a donor advised fund, and put the extra cash flow into buying low-cost funds.
by venkman
Mon Feb 17, 2020 1:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Rate Cuts and their general effect on Gov Bonds
Replies: 15
Views: 1343

Re: Fed Rate Cuts and their general effect on Gov Bonds

I am more wondering if there is a economic slowdown then bonds will gain in price and my investment will also gain in value. And if the Fed cuts rates then, relatively , stocks would become more attractive and the bonds would reverse their gains, in part at least. If there's an economic slowdown, s...
by venkman
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VBTLX and VTSAX prices [Vanguard Total Bond and Total Stock]
Replies: 5
Views: 771

Re: VBTLX and VTSAX prices [Vanguard Total Bond and Total Stock]

VBTLX and VTSAX have zero correlation, not negative correlation.

The price movements of one have no relation to the price movements of the other.
by venkman
Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I find a different job with a better commute?
Replies: 50
Views: 3472

Re: Should I find a different job with a better commute?

Assuming 2.5 hour/day job commute pays $160k, 1 hr/day commute job pays $100k, and you work 230 days/year... That's an extra 345 hours of commuting each year, for which you earn an extra $60k (before taxes), which equals ~$175/hour for the commute to the higher-paying job. Factoring in the extra cos...
by venkman
Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Explain to me why dividends aren't real money
Replies: 81
Views: 8219

Re: Explain to me why dividends aren't real money

That is theoretically correct but in actuality solid long term dividend growth companies tend to also increase their share price at a better than average rate. Dividend growth companies especially when held in tax advantaged accounts, have been a very productive investment for me. But is that a cau...