Search found 49 matches

by bizkitgto
Tue Jul 23, 2019 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best intro to Python programming?
Replies: 15
Views: 1164

Re: Best intro to Python programming?

Harvard's CS50 is the best into to programming out there, plus its free: https://www.edx.org/cs50
by bizkitgto
Tue Jul 23, 2019 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Changes to Morningstar Website?
Replies: 141
Views: 8738

Re: Changes to Morningstar Website?

M* has gone the way of Yahoo!Finance and Google Stocks....RIP. We had a good run! And yeah, the new M* is insufferable, I can't stand it. Any good alternatives out there?
by bizkitgto
Fri Jul 12, 2019 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Shouldn't I Switch to Low Carbon/Fossil Fuel Free Index Funds
Replies: 43
Views: 2275

Re: Why Shouldn't I Switch to Low Carbon/Fossil Fuel Free Index Funds

Don't forget, Big Oil is just Big Energy. In the 70s Exxon was a leading metals, fertilizer and mining company as well as oil. In the 2000s Shell was the largest solar panel company in the world, but sold off their business to Siemens. Big Oil will adapt to market conditions, and they will grow via ...
by bizkitgto
Thu Jul 11, 2019 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation of the Ultra-Wealthy, can I copy their portfolio with index funds?
Replies: 63
Views: 5075

Re: Asset Allocation of the Ultra-Wealthy, can I copy their portfolio with index funds?

You could follow Buffett's advice and just invest in a Vanguard S&P 500 ($VOO) Index Fund, or you could just invest in Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK).
by bizkitgto
Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 110
Views: 10550

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

The 2000s was a lost decade for the S&P500!! My portfolio is ~30% VXUS, keep international for diversification.
by bizkitgto
Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The impact of Baby Boomers on the Future of U.S. Stocks
Replies: 41
Views: 5504

Re: The impact of Baby Boomers on the Future of U.S. Stocks

This is a controversial topic, but it seems that, historically , the primary economic driver of most nations was the size of their population. Hence, population growth led to growth in economic output. But after the Industrial Revolution, there has increasingly become a disconnect between a nation'...
by bizkitgto
Thu Jun 06, 2019 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 262409

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

With the next recession getting closer, I personally prefer to sacrifice annual returns but to be more protected and have more peace of mind. Has anyone considered: 25% UPRO / 25% ZIV/ 45% TMF/ 5% EDZ Any ideas on how I can back-test this combo? Not sure what ZIV is but I’d be scared of EDZ. I look...
by bizkitgto
Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 262409

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

With the next recession getting closer, I personally prefer to sacrifice annual returns but to be more protected and have more peace of mind.

Has anyone considered: 25% UPRO / 25% ZIV/ 45% TMF/ 5% EDZ

Any ideas on how I can back-test this combo?
by bizkitgto
Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: This market just scares me...
Replies: 43
Views: 4377

Re: This market just scares me...

Even though this is one of the longest bull markets, remember that it's also one of the weakest bull markets in history. We could still have a lot of room to grow. Could explain what you mean by this? Growth in the US economy has persisted for ~ 10 years now, which has resulted in the second longes...
by bizkitgto
Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: This market just scares me...
Replies: 43
Views: 4377

Re: This market just scares me...

Even though this is one of the longest bull markets, remember that it's also one of the weakest bull markets in history. We could still have a lot of room to grow.
by bizkitgto
Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 262409

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Does anyone know how to model this portfolio in portfolio viz? (1) Go back to the original post, where the data sets for both can be downloaded in a link about half-way through the original post just after the graphs that have all the red little dots (the blue link "here"). (2) Create an account in...
by bizkitgto
Thu May 30, 2019 1:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio for young, worried investor
Replies: 48
Views: 3454

Re: Portfolio for young, worried investor

Keep it simple man, the 3 fund Boglehead portfolio is all you need. Remember, bonds are for defense, it's always good to have a few so you can rebalance in a market drawdown. I like sticking with 80/20 (stocks/bonds). You have no idea when the next market crash will be, it's more likely that stocks ...
by bizkitgto
Thu May 30, 2019 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Inverted Yield Curve, should i be buying VBTLX?
Replies: 26
Views: 3389

Re: Inverted Yield Curve, should i be buying VBTLX?

One beauty of the 3-fund portfolio and having an asset allocation plan is that the OP's question just doesn't come up. So if the plan is to have BB% in bonds, then make sure one has BB% in bonds by buying VBTLX or selling VBTLX to get to BB% in bonds. There is no need to worry or think about any ne...
by bizkitgto
Thu May 30, 2019 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Cramer
Replies: 59
Views: 5705

Re: Jim Cramer

If you listen to what Cramer is talking about - he's actually talking about what the market is doing "right now". Cramer was a trader, and they think and move with the ebbs and flows of the market: little changes in treasury yield impact the S&P 500 and so so fourth. When he's on CNBC reporting from...
by bizkitgto
Thu May 30, 2019 8:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Inverted Yield Curve, should i be buying VBTLX?
Replies: 26
Views: 3389

Re: Inverted Yield Curve, should i be buying VBTLX?

Can anyone explain why people are buying long term treasuries like the 10Y vs shorter term (2Y) when the yield curve inverts? If you want a safe haven, why not chose the safest one with the best return (short term treasuries in this case)? Or - are investors banking on longer term treasuries (like $...
by bizkitgto
Sat May 25, 2019 1:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: NOOB trying to learn (yes im a tad late age 52)
Replies: 9
Views: 2110

Re: NOOB trying to learn (yes im a tad late age 52)

I've looked into this a lot, I think the 3 Fund Boglehead portfolio is the best. Simplicity rules and fees matter! Your AA will depend on your own risk tolerance. Some say hold your age in bonds, others stick with classic 60/40 (stocks/bonds), and others don't hold any bonds. For what it's worth I a...
by bizkitgto
Fri May 24, 2019 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns
Replies: 79
Views: 8733

Re: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns

Anyone have their forecast from 5-10 years ago? How did they do? From June 2009 https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/icrecm.pdf Did they forecast 8-12% for both US and international equities? Seems off the mark? According to Portfolio Visualizer, Vanguard's June 2009 predictions were fairly close to a...
by bizkitgto
Fri May 24, 2019 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4 Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 4534

Re: 4 Seasons Portfolio

I like Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio over the Permanent Portfolio, although regular DIY invesor's are unlikely to pull off the All Weather due to the use of rolling Commodity Futures (it is a hedge fund after-all). The standard 60/40 and the Boglehead Three Fund portfolio are far simpler and che...
by bizkitgto
Thu May 23, 2019 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns
Replies: 79
Views: 8733

Re: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns

Vincent Barbera, managing partner at Newbridge Wealth Management in Berwyn, agrees that Vanguard’s return assumptions are accurate, but “I am undecided how we will get there. It might mean a significant drop in valuations akin to 2008 or just ongoing muted growth with large loads of debt. Either wa...
by bizkitgto
Sun May 19, 2019 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To invest in bnd for 2.5 years?
Replies: 17
Views: 2604

Re: To invest in bnd for 2.5 years?

Two years only? I'd consider money market or HISA.
by bizkitgto
Thu May 16, 2019 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VIX [Cboe Volatility Index]
Replies: 31
Views: 2092

Re: VIX

OP needs to look into $XIV...a cautionary tale!
by bizkitgto
Wed May 15, 2019 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nobody knows nothing and AA
Replies: 19
Views: 2280

Re: Nobody knows nothing and AA

Ray Dalio's "All Weather" portfolio comes to mind, although I think it's really hard to execute for DIY investor due to the use of futures and hedging strategies.
by bizkitgto
Wed May 15, 2019 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to interpret price of BND?
Replies: 5
Views: 943

Re: How to interpret price of BND?

BND is a great fund, very tough to beat for fixed income. I hold BND for defensive purposes, and in market drawdowns I can easily rebalance my asset allocation and sell BND quickly and easily. BND is very liquid, how easily can you sell 'actual' bonds?
by bizkitgto
Wed May 15, 2019 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can future returns for the next 10 years really be predicted with CAPE?
Replies: 36
Views: 2316

Re: Can future returns for the next 10 years really be predicted with CAPE?

Wasn't the Shiller PE high for the last 10 years do to the financial crisis? I would expect it to start dropping - any thoughts? Europe's low CAPE is interesting to me, historically Europe and US stocks track, so it's reasonable to expect Europe to outperform the next 10 years. Japan on the other ha...
by bizkitgto
Mon May 13, 2019 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2563
Views: 1634226

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

Taylor - what is your current portfolio asset allocation?
by bizkitgto
Mon May 13, 2019 11:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: tech funds
Replies: 30
Views: 3216

Re: tech funds

The S&P 500 is overweight in tech at the moment ~20% tech.
by bizkitgto
Mon May 13, 2019 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?
Replies: 210
Views: 11590

Re: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?

Got an email today from Vanguard regarding international/domestic asset allocation. Here's the PDF: https://advisors.vanguard.com/iwe/pdf/FAWHYINT.pdf Summary: Vanguard reports US equity annualized returns of 10.1% for past 30 years and projects 5.1% for the next 10 years. International non-US equi...
by bizkitgto
Mon May 13, 2019 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?
Replies: 210
Views: 11590

Re: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?

Got an email today from Vanguard regarding international/domestic asset allocation. Here's the PDF: https://advisors.vanguard.com/iwe/pdf/FAWHYINT.pdf Summary: Vanguard reports US equity annualized returns of 10.1% for past 30 years and projects 5.1% for the next 10 years. International non-US equi...
by bizkitgto
Mon May 13, 2019 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VCLT, BND or 0ther
Replies: 15
Views: 1358

Re: VCLT, BND or 0ther

I have always liked BND, but I use it for defense in the event of a market drawdown that should allow me to rebalance.
by bizkitgto
Thu May 09, 2019 10:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Wellington Fund: where is the special sauce?
Replies: 41
Views: 9949

Re: Wellington Fund: where is the special sauce?

If you back test $AOA (ETF) against Wellington, VXWENX, they almost track the enitre time since inception. Could be a cheap alternative. They have very different investing mixes, but they track well. That's interesting. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYea...
by bizkitgto
Sun May 05, 2019 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What index is AOA tracking?
Replies: 7
Views: 792

Re: What index is AOA tracking?

The below information is false. These funds are as 'tactical' as the VG lifestrategy or target retirement funds (which also get adjusted from time to time in ways unrelated to 'tactical asset allocation'). I own AOR (as an investment to educate my children) mostly because VG has not yet (will ever?...
by bizkitgto
Sat May 04, 2019 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What index is AOA tracking?
Replies: 7
Views: 792

What index is AOA tracking?

AOA appears to be a great all-in-one fund, but it has changed its asset allocation several times in the past. What’s going on? Is this a passive fund or an active one? I really like it but I can’t figure out what they’re doing. Any ideas?
by bizkitgto
Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 145
Views: 18217

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

Investing is important, but I just need a solid plan - the simpler the better - and be done with it. I think I'm almost there. Certainly my equity choice is made. The simpler, the better. Once you have your asset allocation figured out, leave it alone. Too many people are constantly tweaking and ad...
by bizkitgto
Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I be in Bonds?
Replies: 20
Views: 1679

Re: Should I be in Bonds?

I like to think of bonds as defense...80/20 is my ratio of stocks/bonds. At your age though it's perfectly acceptable to be 100% in stocks.
by bizkitgto
Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2563
Views: 1634226

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

If you or other BHs know of a Vanguard,Schwab or Fidelity fund that holds the SP500 or TSM that is less cap weighted and would give me an approximation of my desired allocations, that would be helpful. I see that VIVAX is closed to new investors. Look into $RSP, equal weighted S&P500 ETF, it's pret...
by bizkitgto
Wed Apr 10, 2019 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2563
Views: 1634226

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

Bonds have a lower risk and therefore lower expected returns than equities. They are there for diversification and stability. The prudent choice is to diversify away from systemic risk by owning stocks that cover all sectors of the world economy and bonds in order to diversify your stock portfolio....
by bizkitgto
Wed Apr 10, 2019 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2563
Views: 1634226

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

thatbrian wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:01 pm
I'm fully onboard with the Three-Fund-Portfolio (thank you, Taylor). The only decision making left is: Allocation, Allocation, Allocation. I HATE making these types of decisions.
Have you considered $VT, just keep it simple and let the market decide your allocation for you?
by bizkitgto
Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Change international % in equities over time?
Replies: 11
Views: 973

Re: Change international % in equities over time?

OP, have you considered just holding $VT as the equity portion of your portfolio?
by bizkitgto
Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brexit / VXUS
Replies: 24
Views: 2271

Re: Brexit / VXUS

It's already priced in, and my logic says the UK's loss is the EU/Germany's gain - so VXUS could be a wash anyway.
by bizkitgto
Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice needed for a young person
Replies: 7
Views: 429

Re: Advice needed for a young person

I’d let him try, the market will humble him. Plus he’ll get to scratch that itch and hopefully he will learn a lot. It’s almost impossible for an average Joe to beat the market, plus you’re going up against guys like Dalio, Soros and RenTec who have billions at their disposal.
by bizkitgto
Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Let's talk Bonds: BND, VCIT, BIV, LQD, SLQD?
Replies: 23
Views: 3205

Re: Let's talk Bonds: BND, VCIT, BIV, LQD, SLQD?

BND is really all you need. don't fish for higher returns on the bond side. accept the return from bnd for what it is... and avoid speculating in bonds as it will just lead to bad behaviour... not staying the course. Great advice, I'm sticking with BND, my only other holding is VT - keep it simple ...
by bizkitgto
Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Let's talk Bonds: BND, VCIT, BIV, LQD, SLQD?
Replies: 23
Views: 3205

Re: "I don't see it"

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:49 pm

My suggestion: Avoid the financial media and simply stay-the-course.

Best wishes
Taylor
Thanks!
by bizkitgto
Tue Dec 11, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Let's talk Bonds: BND, VCIT, BIV, LQD, SLQD?
Replies: 23
Views: 3205

Re: Let's talk Bonds: BND, VCIT, BIV, LQD, SLQD?

Taylor - Great link! Thanks for sharing.

I guess my only concern now is how positively correlated bonds are with stocks. In this environment I’ve watched BND tanking with the market, what’s happening? Are bonds not as defensive as we thought?
by bizkitgto
Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Let's talk Bonds: BND, VCIT, BIV, LQD, SLQD?
Replies: 23
Views: 3205

Re: Let's talk Bonds: BND, VCIT, BIV, LQD, SLQD?

OP: Curious why you are thinking to go to "only corporate debt"? Aren't corporate bonds a bit more correlated with stocks than Treasuries (which are somewhat anti-correlated)? Of course corporates will get you more yield. So that might be your reason. I was thinking to go with corporate debt and sh...
by bizkitgto
Thu Aug 02, 2018 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Let's talk Bonds: BND, VCIT, BIV, LQD, SLQD?
Replies: 23
Views: 3205

Let's talk Bonds: BND, VCIT, BIV, LQD, SLQD?

Hey guys - looking for a good Bond fund to balance my 80/20 retirement portfolio. I want some bonds to reduce volatility, rebalancing, etc. Currently I hold BND, but thinking to just hold corporate debt (VCIT, LQD or SLQD) or shorter term rates. What's the general consensus on bond funds, and what's...
by bizkitgto
Tue Mar 14, 2017 11:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds - BND, BIV or VCSH for safety and liquidity?
Replies: 3
Views: 1646

Bonds - BND, BIV or VCSH for safety and liquidity?

I was checking out my bonds for my portfolio and currently use BND. However, I just found out that BND contains mortgage backed securities (MBS), and BIV does not. Does anyone know if it is worth the extra risk to hold BND over BIV? VCSH is corporate bonds, so there is additional risk there as well....