Search found 4067 matches

by stlutz
Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please recommend an allocation now ( age 31) if retiring in 20 years ?
Replies: 32
Views: 1822

Re: Please recommend an allocation now ( age 31) if retiring in 20 years ?

In reality you're going to retire based on when you achieve a wealth target and no so much based on age. As such, no need for excessive conservatism--you would become more conservative once you've gotten closer to your goals. But agreed with the others that the debt is the biggest concern right now,...
by stlutz
Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please recommend an allocation now ( age 31) if retiring in 20 years ?
Replies: 32
Views: 1822

Re: Please recommend an allocation now ( age 31) if retiring in 20 years ?

Based on what you've told us so far, retirement in 20 years is a pipe dream.
With a $250K income and a reasonable lifestyle, it's very realistic.
by stlutz
Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I buy a business or suck it up at a job(s) with a pension.
Replies: 49
Views: 3123

Re: Should I buy a business or suck it up at a job(s) with a pension.

I'd pull the plug at 50, but I wouldn't buy a business. I'd try to find a job that kept me occupied and sent a little cash my way, something that made me happy. Could be working in a store or gardening or whatever. Heck, I'd rather wash cars than own a car wash. +1 You are in a financial position w...
by stlutz
Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Treasury bill question
Replies: 3
Views: 217

Re: Treasury bill question

The percentage is annualized.
by stlutz
Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 119
Views: 9640

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

Look, it absolutely makes sense that high valuations mean it's more likely to see lower 10-year returns going forward. But it's not actionable at all. Generally in discussions on PE-10 I've been on Homer's "side" of the debate. I fully agree that using a single valuation metric to make an all-in or...
by stlutz
Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are some good, older threads?
Replies: 20
Views: 1907

Re: What are some good, older threads?

Can't forget about the epic 200 day moving average thread. viewtopic.php?t=27460
by stlutz
Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 119
Views: 9640

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

This thread started with an article from Research Affiliates. Research Affiliates had an article in 2012 forecasting 6% nominal as the expected return for stocks, well below the 9% historical return. And 2% for bonds or a 4.4% returns for a 60/40 portfolio. They warned back then that investors bett...
by stlutz
Thu Jan 18, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 353
Views: 33049

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

If we add +2% to the annual inflation from 1983-onwards and -2% from equities returns over the same period them the SWR for a 60/40 portfolio is: 1980-2010: 6.8% 1981-2011: 6.6% 1982-2012: 7.8% 1983-2013: 6.8% 1984-2014: 6.6% 1985-2015: 6.8% 1986-2016: 5.9% ... I was considering this from the persp...
by stlutz
Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Analyze Sweet Spot on Insurance Deductibles - Challenging my Preconceived Notions
Replies: 25
Views: 1506

Re: How to Analyze Sweet Spot on Insurance Deductibles - Challenging my Preconceived Notions

One thing to keep in mind is that making claims tends to cause your rates to go up. A lower deductible = more claims --> higher rates.
by stlutz
Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 353
Views: 33049

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Let me propose a more realistic "bad case" scenario. One of the things that was striking to me when I read the infamous Business Week "Death of Equities" article decades after it was written is not that the article was silly but that it was correct--all of the problems that the article identified we...
by stlutz
Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 119
Views: 9640

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

I would suggest there are two different things to consider here. a) CAPE as a market-timing tool. This simply doesn't work that well. The "normal" state of markets is that the CAPE is "elevated". Moving the 2008-9 years out of the equation, the tax cut, and possibly a 10% correction could all work t...
by stlutz
Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 119
Views: 9640

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

Could CAPE improve (go down) once we are 10 +years removed from the Financial Crisis? Maybe by some time in 2019? The CAPE is 33 now. Getting rid of the financial-crisis related earnings decline would drop it down to 29 or 30. Not a dramatic difference (which is the point of CAPE--reduce the impact...
by stlutz
Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond investing for a very long retirement?
Replies: 35
Views: 2452

Re: Bond investing for a very long retirement?

Risk has a positive and a negative side to it. On one hand, higher risk assets provide higher potential returns. On the other hand, they come with possible negatives as well. For a US stock market investor, risk has worked out pretty well over the years. We won two world wars and didn't have any of ...
by stlutz
Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I sell Ishares and invest in index funds?
Replies: 5
Views: 451

Re: Should I sell Ishares and invest in index funds?

From a taxation perspective, the optimal way would be to sell everything with losses now and sell the ones with gains once they become long-term gains. Depending on how much you have in long-term gains, you may want to spread the gains out over multiple years to take advantage of the 0% Long-Term Ca...
by stlutz
Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case study Broker trade executions
Replies: 212
Views: 21822

Re: Case study Broker trade executions

You might be interested in registering at this site to see historical during-the-day trade data: https://surveyor.trlm.com/.

When I look I'm seeing thousands of shares of VSS traded at the open every day.
by stlutz
Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stats on When People Take Social Security
Replies: 168
Views: 10816

Re: Stats on When People Take Social Security

From 2008 to about 2015, people over 60 who got laid off or otherwise lost their jobs or business had few other options. They needed some income. If you have a nice little 401k and lost your job and needed to pay bills, taking SS at 62, was probably the wises investment move to take. This is an int...
by stlutz
Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nostalgic about old online brokerages that no longer exist
Replies: 43
Views: 4710

Re: Nostalgic about old online brokerages that no longer exist

I was at Jack White who then get acquired by TD Waterhouse. I think Jack White was $20 per stock trade (or maybe $25)? I think TD was $12 at the time of acquisition.
by stlutz
Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Merrill Edge - Platinum Honors
Replies: 17
Views: 1615

Re: Merrill Edge - Platinum Honors

Actually the safest almost-money-market ETF would be SHV (ishares Treasury < 1 year). Currently yields 1.24%.
by stlutz
Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Did I need a lawyer after an accident?
Replies: 29
Views: 2610

Re: Did I need a lawyer after an accident?

First off, I would be cautious about posting too many details about a pending legal case on an internet forum. Second, the lawyer above is correct--without knowing what state you live in, nobody can offer useful suggestions. They whole payment process isn't just a little different from state to stat...
by stlutz
Wed Jan 10, 2018 8:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Liability Issues with Organizing Meetup Events
Replies: 10
Views: 1279

Re: Liability Issues with Organizing Meetup Events

If you want to hear from a lawyer on the issue: https://www.bicycling.com/rides/safety-etiquette/group-ride-liabilities-how-to-lower-yours/ I lead a lot of rides with a cycling club in my area and know folks in a lot of other clubs as well. The one lawsuit I'm aware of wasn't related to an accident ...
by stlutz
Mon Jan 01, 2018 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 3524

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

Are you seriously suggesting that I start timing the market with my $10 Million portfolio? What are the alternatives you are comparing? If you have $10M, you can do whatever you want and mostly likely be just fine--100%, a 60/40 balanced portfolio, a moving-average trading system, the Larry portfol...
by stlutz
Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone tilt to factors other than size and value?
Replies: 1
Views: 212

Re: Does anyone tilt to factors other than size and value?

I've had a small allocation to USMV (about 1% of my portfolio). I haven't expanded it for a few reasons: a) I've become less convinced that all of these various anomalies will survive the industry-wide move to smart-beta/factor investing. b) For folks who are more heavily weighted toward equities, t...
by stlutz
Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Beta a distinct factor or a summation of other factors
Replies: 42
Views: 1956

Re: Is Beta a distinct factor or a summation of other factors

I am saying that the market will price on average the risks in stocks appropriately so, unless you have specific information about a specific security that is not incorporated into price, the best estimate of value is the market price packer: Although I'm sympathetic with your understanding, I thin...
by stlutz
Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 3524

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

It really depends on exactly how you are executing the moving average strategy and what you are comparing it to, and of course the time period being examined. Obviously, if you're start year is 2006, the moving average strategy significantly reduces downside risk. On the other hand, using such a str...
by stlutz
Sun Dec 31, 2017 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VBR
Replies: 8
Views: 821

Re: VBR

Smallcap stocks as a group are just not that profitable right now. ETF.com lists the trailing P/E of VG Small Value at 35 but Small Growth at 72. Looking at projected earnings, Morningstar shows the PE of SV at 19.1 and SG at 30, so they are expecting smallcap companies to become more profitable in ...
by stlutz
Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)
Replies: 201
Views: 17299

Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

That's the joke you always hear about how you could get 40,000 pounds of pork bellies dumped on your front lawn.
Who pays the shipping for that?
by stlutz
Sat Dec 30, 2017 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will PE ratios decrease due to lower taxes?
Replies: 20
Views: 2253

Re: Will PE ratios decrease due to lower taxes?

At least some of the recent increase in the market is due to tax reform. So, the P has increased. The E won't increase until 2018 or even 2019 in some cases. So, absent any other factors, PE ratios should decline some. However, by the time that the new tax law is reflected in the E, the P will have ...
by stlutz
Sat Dec 30, 2017 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 114
Views: 10535

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

I find the value premium so interesting because there are both risk and behavioral explanations for it In terms of historical analysis there are actually at least 4 explanations: 1) Risk -- There is a financial or non-financial reason that many investors should logically and rationally eschew value...
by stlutz
Sat Dec 30, 2017 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Beta a distinct factor or a summation of other factors
Replies: 42
Views: 1956

Re: Is Beta a distinct factor or a summation of other factors

Risk factors are a way to measure systemic drivers of a security's return as distinct from stock-specific reasons. Simply being a part of the stock market is an important driver of the returns of all stocks and chunks of the market. If the market doubles in value but nothing fundamentally changes wi...
by stlutz
Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Case Against Individual Stock Picking
Replies: 22
Views: 1801

Re: Case Against Individual Stock Picking

I spend much longer on picking the 5% stocks that are undervalued, have growth potential, etc. etc. from multiple sources than my index funds On the other hand, if spending all of this time on 5% of your portfolio causes you to leave the other 95% well enough alone, it might be time/money well spen...
by stlutz
Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 114
Views: 10535

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

b) The additional risk in concentrating solely in smallcap value comes from giving up on diversification. There is no additional expected return in doing that. Instead what you get is a wider possible range of outcomes through such concentration. That risk of the Larry Portfolio tends to be under-a...
by stlutz
Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managed Vol Strategies Work
Replies: 24
Views: 2245

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managed Vol Strategies Work

What is starting to bug me a bit is that factor investing is getting to be more complex. First, it seemed that if you wanted to factor tilt, that you had to choose the "right" investment vehicles. Now it seems we need vehicles that are increasing in complexity or are semi-liquid. While alarm bells ...
by stlutz
Fri Dec 29, 2017 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managed Vol Strategies Work
Replies: 24
Views: 2245

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managed Vol Strategies Work

So, out of curiosity I thought I'd take a look at how some of the various funds that are discussed in these articles/threads performed this year (thorough 12/28): QSPRX (AQR Style Premia): 12.32% AQMRX (AQR Managed Futures): -.86% AVRPX (Stone Ridge Variance): 10.58% LENDX (P2P lending): 6.38% SRRIX...
by stlutz
Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Spain Trip: Barcelona & Girona + Cycling
Replies: 11
Views: 653

Re: Spain Trip: Barcelona & Girona + Cycling

I've done an approx. 1 week bike trip based entirely out of Girona. There is a nice mix of riding available from there. My trip was based on riding for the entire day. Outside of cycling Girona is a one-day-stop kind of town in my opinion. I wouldn't rent a car solely for Girona--it's not a car-frie...
by stlutz
Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Scwhab SCHE/SCHF vs Vanguard VEA/VWO for international exposure
Replies: 3
Views: 289

Re: Scwhab SCHE/SCHF vs Vanguard VEA/VWO for international exposure

They both cover the same combinations of countries. The Schwab ETFs cover large and mid cap stocks only while the Vanguard ones are total market funds that also provide smallcap coverage.
by stlutz
Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Email from Larry Swedroe about "Reducing the Risk of Black Swans" book 2nd ed.
Replies: 8
Views: 1990

Re: Email from Larry Swedroe about "Reducing the Risk of Black Swans" book 2nd ed.

Anyone know if individuals can purchase SSRIX (Stone Ridge Reinsurance) for example without going through an advisor?
You cannot.
by stlutz
Tue Dec 26, 2017 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 114
Views: 10535

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

A cheaper iShares ETF version could be: 1. iShares Edge MSCI Multifactor USA Small-Cap ETF SMLF 2. iShares Edge MSCI Multifactor Intl Small-Cap ETF ISCF 3. iShares Edge MSCI Multifactor Emerging Markets ETF EMGF A cheaper Scwhab version could be: 1. Schwab Fundamental U.S. Small Company Index ETF F...
by stlutz
Mon Dec 25, 2017 7:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question about Fidelity Donor-Advised Fund
Replies: 7
Views: 785

Re: Question about Fidelity Donor-Advised Fund

Yes you can make specific designations.
by stlutz
Mon Dec 25, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Seeking better all purpose financial institution
Replies: 12
Views: 920

Re: Seeking better all purpose financial institution

Can't deposit cash at Schwab.

Bank of America/Merrill Lynch is probably the best answer to the question.
by stlutz
Mon Dec 25, 2017 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 114
Views: 10535

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

A few thoughts: a) The "Larry Portfolio" has tended to get oversold as offering some type of magic. Anybody can reduce the risk of her portfolio by cutting back on stocks and adding bonds. There is nothing unique to Larry Swedroe in doing that. Anybody can look for stocks that have provided above ma...
by stlutz
Mon Dec 25, 2017 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Corporate Bonds with high interest rates
Replies: 9
Views: 662

Re: Corporate Bonds with high interest rates

Yes, bond prices change every day, although usually less dramatically than stock prices do. To step back and take a broader look, corporate credit spreads (the additional yield you get for taking the risk of investing in corporate bonds vs. treasuries) is quite low right now: https://fred.stlouisfed...
by stlutz
Sun Dec 24, 2017 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 114
Views: 10535

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

He hasn't changed his view that SV stocks will beat the market significantly over time, so the strategy still holds. By only using the stocks that you think will do the best, you have to buy less stocks.
by stlutz
Sun Dec 24, 2017 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Federal MM e/r increase
Replies: 2
Views: 503

Re: Vanguard Federal MM e/r increase

More Vanguard IT gremlins...
by stlutz
Sun Dec 24, 2017 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much to front load DAF this year?
Replies: 11
Views: 1176

Re: How much to front load DAF this year?

It really depends on how much you donate on average per year. If that number is $2 or $3K, then doing 5 years worth this week makes a lot of sense. If you're doing $10 or 15K, then every other year may be a better plan. I'm always hesitant to look too far forward just because life circumstances can ...
by stlutz
Sun Dec 24, 2017 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Operation Renter's Paradise?
Replies: 7
Views: 1030

Re: Operation Renter's Paradise?

I'd broaden your horizons in terms of where an acceptable place to buy is. From what I know of Denver real estate, it sounds like you are focusing on more expensive areas of town. There are parks, restaurants and bars near the overwhelming majority of houses anywhere in the city.
by stlutz
Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investment Implications of the Tax Bill - Morningstar on FIFO, etc.
Replies: 11
Views: 1259

Re: Investment Implications of the Tax Bill - Morningstar on FIFO, etc.

Do you mean separating investments at similar market levels into different funds? That is the only contingency planning I can think of at the moment. Yes. Many of the VG funds I hold I have significant cost lots from 20 years ago. So I'll stop buying those and use equivalents--for example, buy SCHB...
by stlutz
Sat Dec 23, 2017 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Problem donating VTSAX shares to Schwab Charitable
Replies: 19
Views: 903

Re: Problem donating VTSAX shares to Schwab Charitable

I would contact Schwab Charitable first since they are the ones executing the transaction. One time I was doing the same type of transaction and Vanguard contacted me asking for a signature guarantee. I instead contacted Schwab and they took care if it without me having to do anything. Concern would...
by stlutz
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Linking Schwab accounts
Replies: 6
Views: 440

Re: Linking Schwab accounts

You can ask them to turn off the overdraft feature. I and others on this board have done the same. Just give them a call.
by stlutz
Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax gain harvesting w/ Vanguard & getting that money reinvested
Replies: 14
Views: 1470

Re: Tax gain harvesting w/ Vanguard & getting that money reinvested

You have to setup a recurring automatic investment and then shut it off after the first transaction has occurred.
by stlutz
Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are pensions protected from sponsoring company's financial woes?
Replies: 8
Views: 977

Re: Are pensions protected from sponsoring company's financial woes?

The max PBGC pays is largely dependent upon your age at the date that PBGC takes over the plan.
Thanks for the clarification. Looks like they actually have a table for this: https://www.pbgc.gov/wr/benefits/guaran ... -guarantee