Search found 4299 matches

by stlutz
Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to find call dates for bonds in Vanguard Bond Funds
Replies: 19
Views: 806

Re: Where to find call dates for bonds in Vanguard Bond Funds

If you want to branch out from VG, iShares does provide an ISIN on their holdings spreadsheets. Remove the first two letters and the last digit and you have the Cusip (for US securities).
by stlutz
Mon Apr 23, 2018 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year AA Munis at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 108
Views: 6324

Re: 2-year AA Munis at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

But my understanding is that individual bonds, (Including perhaps in a rolling ladder) are safer than funds because if you hold the individual bonds til maturity, you will not have a loss on the principal -- with bond funds, you don't have that control. Muni bonds are rarely issued or trade at par....
by stlutz
Mon Apr 23, 2018 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year AA Munis at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 108
Views: 6324

Re: 2-year AA Munis at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

But it does appear possible to exercise control over the markup on the secondary market. The impact of the commission is calculable, so it the main concern is the spread. This thread shows there are some good deals out there—even at smaller lot sizes—and you can figure the exact yield you get at ti...
by stlutz
Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 50
Views: 3885

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

Leaving aside the question of whether factor tilting is a good idea, I think these VG funds are an excellent way to do it, for the reasons jfhenton just stated (had to rewrite my post as a result!). Vanguard's real competition here isn't really DFA as much as it is iShares, who already has pretty-da...
by stlutz
Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Limits of Modern Portfolio Theory - Do Investors Understand What They Own?
Replies: 16
Views: 1885

Re: The Limits of Modern Portfolio Theory - Do Investors Understand What They Own?

I would suggest that this concern may apply more to fixed-income securities. The Total Bond index is very simple investment to buy, but the bonds held therein can be complex instruments.
by stlutz
Sat Apr 21, 2018 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much is too much in a Fidelity or VG account?
Replies: 22
Views: 3979

Re: How much is too much in a Fidelity or VG account?

Companies like Fidelity have very robust disaster recovery plans in place. Id' expect this to include among other things multiple backup's as well as offsite location(s) that can be brought up relatively quickly to operate in place of their traditional IT center(s). At least at my company, "failing...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 21, 2018 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to invest what little retirement money is left at 85
Replies: 10
Views: 2182

Re: How to invest what little retirement money is left at 85

The answer partially depends on what his attachment level is to his current holdings. It sounds like getting him into a better living situation is more important in the near future, so if there is a chance for conflict I'd leave the mutual funds well enough alone. That said, I would suggest the VG L...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 21, 2018 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 164
Views: 19290

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

Just checked the 203 CDs in 2-3 year range that met my criteria on Friday--there are bids for 178 of them. Average ask/bid - 1 = 58 bps, so yeah, much wider than Treasuries. Spread for the lowest maturity, 3/4/2020, is 11 bps. I see a number in the 15-30 bps range for shorter maturities, but agree ...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 21, 2018 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 137
Views: 8069

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

Rick: First, thanks for starting the thread and sharing your current (unchanged :D ) opinion on the VG fund. Our of curiosity, what would have to happen to make you a fan of the VG international bond fund? Would a higher yield do the trick? Or you would need to become less confident in the "full fai...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 21, 2018 6:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Settlement Offer -- Accept or Wait?
Replies: 66
Views: 4930

Re: Settlement Offer -- Accept or Wait?

f you've signed away your rights for $1800, you'll be responsible to pay them back for everything they've paid and everything going forward.
No. The health insurance company can subrogate what you collect from the other guy; they can't come after you for more.
by stlutz
Sat Apr 21, 2018 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 164
Views: 19290

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

Am I getting this right - 100 bps for a CD vs 3 or 4 bps for a Treasury?
I just logged onto Fidelity now to look at the 2-3 year CDs you were inquiring about. The range was between 50 and 100 bps. Longer range ones have wider spreads.
by stlutz
Sat Apr 21, 2018 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 164
Views: 19290

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

But what if you don't or can't for some reason. That's when the better Treasury liquidity comes into the thought process. I just bought an on the run two year Treasury (in tax advantage even :shock: ) but I expect to sell it to rebalnce into equities within the next year. And if the sith doesn't hi...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 21, 2018 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 164
Views: 19290

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

What are the spreads today on a 3 yr CD that was originally issued one year ago?
A lot of CDs don't have bid prices listed and for the ones that do, spreads vary a lot. My basic rule of thumb for a 5 year CD would be about 1%.
by stlutz
Sat Apr 21, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 164
Views: 19290

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

Guys I don't get it. The three year Treasury closed Friday at 2.632. After state tax at 6% that's ~2.79. Only 13 bps below the CD. Is the extra liquidy for the Treasury not worth 13 bps? I think there is some anchoring going on with these. For those who got in on the 3% Pen Fed CD deal a few years ...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 21, 2018 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I continue to hold REITs?
Replies: 48
Views: 3588

Re: Should I continue to hold REITs?

There are two questions to consider here. First, what would make for a sub-optimal portfolio? Second, what makes for sub-optimal decision-making? A former poster on these forums once snarkily remarked, "Show me an investor with a 10% REIT weighting and I'll show you someone who has read a couple of ...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 21, 2018 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How good are Vanguard bond funds?
Replies: 52
Views: 4860

Re: How good are Vanguard bond funds?

To see whether a bond fund fund has provided superior results, one can also do regressions on portfolio visualizer to see what was driving the results. Example with a few funds that have been mentioned in this thread: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/factor-analysis?s=y®ressionType=1&symbols=P...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 21, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Settlement Offer -- Accept or Wait?
Replies: 66
Views: 4930

Re: Settlement Offer -- Accept or Wait?

If you haven't get gotten a litigious-sounding letter from your health insurer stating that any monies you collect belong to them--you will. Accept the $1800 only if you are willing to turn that full amount over. The other guy's insurance company owes you the full cost of the medical treatment, not ...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 21, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: BH travel tips?
Replies: 150
Views: 9147

Re: BH travel tips?

When traveling with others, error on the side of planning a trip that's a bit too short.

When traveling alone, error on the side of planning a trip that's a bit too long.

You can decide whether "with others" includes a spouse or not.
by stlutz
Fri Apr 20, 2018 2:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Merrill Edge "Money Account" Question
Replies: 17
Views: 1723

Re: Merrill Edge "Money Account" Question

The "money account" is also known as a sweep account. At ME, they have a collection of banks that they deposit your cash with so the that money is FDIC insured. If the money hasn't yet been deposited by them, it will simply be shown as a "cash balance". I don't actually have an account with them, bu...
by stlutz
Fri Apr 20, 2018 2:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question on discount and premium treasury bonds
Replies: 4
Views: 517

Re: Question on discount and premium treasury bonds

The default way it would work is: If you buy a bond with a par value of $100 for $105: Each year you amortize a part of that premium and you subtract that from the coupon payments. So (roughly) if this was 5 year bond with a coupon of 2%, you'd get $2 in interest and have $1 in "ABP adjustment" and ...
by stlutz
Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying T-bills ..help needed
Replies: 17
Views: 1795

Re: Buying T-bills ..help needed

Are you focused solely on T-bills (i.e. short term instruments maturing in 1 year or less) or are you talking about Treasury debt in general--bill, notes, and bonds?
by stlutz
Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire at age 40?
Replies: 154
Views: 14994

Re: Can I retire at age 40?

Nothing substantive to add. I would just suggest that your motto should be, "I can do anything, but I can't do nothing."
by stlutz
Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 164
Views: 19290

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

Actually I thought settlement is T+1 for bonds and CDs.
T+1 for Treasuries; T+2 for everything else.
by stlutz
Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Firstrade Makes a Splash With 700 Commission-Free ETFs (Including Vanguard!)
Replies: 12
Views: 1545

Re: Firstrade Makes a Splash With 700 Commission-Free ETFs (Including Vanguard!)

They need more than free trades to stay in business.
Reminds me of one of my favorite-ever fake SNL commercials: http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/ ... 9703?snl=1

"People ask us how we make money. The answer is: Volume!" :D
by stlutz
Sat Apr 14, 2018 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 113
Views: 9940

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

it doesn't look like 4% will work for 75/25 S&P500/FI portfolio if one starts in 2000 Playing around with data from the Simba/siamond spreadsheet--the use of corporate bonds for fixed income as opposed to total bond or treasuries does hurt this portfolio more than I would have expected. Of course, ...
by stlutz
Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 153
Views: 8346

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

Well yeah if you start at the beginning of a 20 year bear market in 60s and the top of a 13 year secular bear in 2000, you are not going to get representative numbers. If you're comparing to today, they are very representative numbers. That's not to say that we are at a market peak and that there w...
by stlutz
Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dumping my LT Treasury Index Fund FLBAX
Replies: 4
Views: 438

Re: Dumping my LT Treasury Index Fund FLBAX

After reading up some more today, it just hit me that a long term bond fund (FLBAX) has performed well since the late 70's BECAUSE interest rates have been on a steady decline. Actually, no. Your returns would have been much higher had rates stayed at their heights in 1981. That said, there is sign...
by stlutz
Tue Apr 10, 2018 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don't Use the 200-Day Moving Average as a Sell Signal" - Ben Carlson
Replies: 35
Views: 2418

Re: "Don't Use the 200-Day Moving Average as a Sell Signal" - Ben Carlson

willthrill--curiosity question: Do you basically switch between 100% equities and 0% equities based on the market trend or are your changes more muted (e.g. switching between 75/25 and 25/75 or something like that)? From what I've read, trend following strategies actually do backtest fairly well. An...
by stlutz
Mon Apr 09, 2018 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 14871

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

Dave/lack_ey: Thanks for the links. Will check them out over the next couple of days.
by stlutz
Mon Apr 09, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 14871

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

stlutz / Random Walker, Putting all discussion of validity of risk premia aside, would you guys invest in these funds with the liquidity risks as documented in the prospectus that I posted above? For me (and I think for many), that would be a deal breaker regardless of how robust or large the premi...
by stlutz
Mon Apr 09, 2018 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 14871

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

I got to wondering today, are any other financial writers recommending the products in question? These discussions tend to get sidetracked on the question of whether Larry Swedroe is a swell guy or not. Honestly, when I'm investing, I couldn't care less one way or the other. Perhaps it might benefit...
by stlutz
Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 164
Views: 19290

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

I believe Alliant Credit Union also does not require funds from a maturing CD to go to a new CD by default.
by stlutz
Sun Apr 08, 2018 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 2-yr treasury ladder with 6-month rungs
Replies: 13
Views: 1211

Re: 2-yr treasury ladder with 6-month rungs

A few thoughts: --Using CDs would probably work better in the auto-roll program as new ones are available every week. --Now that we are off of 0% short-term rates, you might actually want to run the numbers on how much being in a money market fund for a couple of weeks (or even a month) every two ye...
by stlutz
Sun Apr 08, 2018 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 14871

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

I have to come to Taylor's defense here.
Just to clarify, I quoted nisiprius' quote of Swedroe's statement regarding US equity returns. Wasn't commenting on Taylor's listing of Total Bond returns at all. :sharebeer
by stlutz
Sun Apr 08, 2018 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 2-yr treasury ladder with 6-month rungs
Replies: 13
Views: 1211

Re: 2-yr treasury ladder with 6-month rungs

I would ask Fidelity for specifics on how their auto-roll program works with these securities. I'd actually be a little bit curious what they say. There are a lot of dates that make it confusing. Let's take the 2 year auction from February: Announcement Date: 2/15/18 Auction Date: 2/21/18 Settlement...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Plots of stock market and Treasury bond relationship over time [Not quite so quick anymore]
Replies: 13
Views: 1357

Re: Quick plots of stock market and Treasury bond relationship over time

Maybe a 5 year treasury minus the inflation rate? (since the bond funds I invest in generally have about a 5 year average maturity.
by stlutz
Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Plots of stock market and Treasury bond relationship over time [Not quite so quick anymore]
Replies: 13
Views: 1357

Re: Quick plots of stock market and Treasury bond relationship over time

lack_ey (or siamond for that matter): If you have the information available to do so, would you be willing/able to test out a result I think I arrived at one time by looking at some of this data? One conclusion I had come to was that stock/bond correlations have been higher during periods of higher ...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value premium harvestable?
Replies: 39
Views: 2306

Re: Value premium harvestable?

I would offer a bit of a corrective to the overall tenor of the discussion. There has not been value underperformance when comparing VIVAX vs. VIGRX: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2018&lastMonth=12&endDate=04%2F07%2F2018&i...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 14871

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

Let me first state that there are no magic bullets that can bring expected returns up to the levels achieved over the prior 36 years. Why the selection of "36" years? If one is just picking a number at random, I can see picking 25 or 50 or something like that, but 36? Obviously the reason to choose...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value premium harvestable?
Replies: 39
Views: 2306

Re: Value premium harvestable?

The reasoning, as I understand it, is that value companies tend to have much higher debt levels than growth companies — and thus benefit more from high inflation, due to the lower real costs of their debt. So it's possible the value premium has been arbitraged away — but it's also possible that it'...
by stlutz
Fri Apr 06, 2018 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 118
Views: 17151

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

I can't read this thread without thinking about Keynes' essay, "Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren".

http://www.econ.yale.edu/smith/econ116a/keynes1.pdf
by stlutz
Fri Apr 06, 2018 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corruption vs. Country Stock Returns, 1997-2016
Replies: 17
Views: 1648

Re: Corruption vs. Country Stock Returns, 1997-2016

If there isn't a "corruption premium", then one could argue that it makes more sense to exclude the more corrupt markets, or just make it easy and skip emerging markets altogether. Why take extra risk if you can't expect to be rewarded for doing so? Out of curiosity, are the returns you are showing ...
by stlutz
Fri Apr 06, 2018 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 14871

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

I think it's relevant to consider the scenarios where a standard 60/40 portfolio doesn't do that well, because the reality is that real interest rates aren't really that low by historical measures and stock valuations are "high" most of the time. The biggest worry I think we have on this board is th...
by stlutz
Fri Apr 06, 2018 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 14871

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

For someone who holds a 60/40 portfolio (like me), the starting point for the 60% equity portion is simply to hold a market-cap weighted portion of all companies in all lines of business in all countries in the world. For most folks here, that is a very reasonable starting, and possibly ending point...
by stlutz
Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 14871

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

It may be worth noting that the Stone Ridge funds charge more than 2%
nisi: In fairness, in an earlier discussion Swedroe argued that the "real" expense ratio for LENDX is only 2%. Link: viewtopic.php?t=204480#p3136718
by stlutz
Thu Apr 05, 2018 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 164
Views: 19290

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

Yeah, I haven't seen anything all that attractive in brokered CDs lately relative to treasuries. In the past I've been able to get more substantial yield premiums that I can now.
by stlutz
Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rate risk of VG intermediate munis vs muni index
Replies: 5
Views: 491

Re: Interest rate risk of VG intermediate munis vs muni index

The difference in interest rate risk is bigger than that duration difference might lead to you to expect. You might want to check out this article about what happened to the intermediate and long-term muni funds back in 2013 when there was a fairly significant runup in rates: https://thefinancebuff....
by stlutz
Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: In-Kind transfer to Fidelity
Replies: 12
Views: 1149

Re: In-Kind transfer to Fidelity

Thanks for sharing--always good to hear positive stories about service from financial firms!
by stlutz
Sat Mar 31, 2018 12:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bonds and WSJ article.
Replies: 12
Views: 1494

Re: Muni bonds and WSJ article.

A few thoughts: --Bond rating agencies have a very good record with regard to their ratings of municipal issuers. Obviously the agencies has a major screw up with their ratings of mortgage backed securities in the 2000s. That doesn't negate the fact that their record with other types of bonds has be...
by stlutz
Sat Mar 31, 2018 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning
Replies: 114
Views: 7573

Re: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning

grok: A belated thank you for your reply to my scenario. I was curious to what degree you would suggest annuitization.