Search found 4762 matches

by stlutz
Sun Nov 18, 2018 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: State Municipal Bonds verse Total Bond Index
Replies: 10
Views: 648

Re: State Municipal Bonds verse Total Bond Index

Vanguard's NJ tax exempt fund is significantly riskier than Total Bond and even compared to their national tax exempt funds. In NJ Long-Term Tax Exempt, only 30% of the bonds are rated AAA or AA. Compare that to their national Long-Term Tax exempt fund where 60% of the bonds fall into those rating c...
by stlutz
Sun Nov 18, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I understanding this right about DAFs? If so...wow
Replies: 26
Views: 2404

Re: Am I understanding this right about DAFs? If so...wow

I would also suggest going with the DAF but only after checking to make sure the DAF will recognize your chosen charities to issue checks. As long as it's a 501c3, I've never heard of anyone who has had their grant recommendation declined by the Fidelity/Schwab DAFs. Many people here give to their ...
by stlutz
Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Good time to TLH and which Vanguard funds to avoid wash sale?
Replies: 11
Views: 601

Re: Good time to TLH and which Vanguard funds to avoid wash sale?

If you are in the 10 percent bracket I would not TLH if you expect to be in a higher bracket in the future.
by stlutz
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard investor class shares on their way out?
Replies: 76
Views: 6855

Re: Vanguard investor class shares on their way out?

For those who want to get rid of investor class, it's with calculating how much expense ratios on other shares have to go up to facilitate that. Hint: It's more than you might guess.
by stlutz
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FreeTaxUSA.com now has 2018 Return available.
Replies: 28
Views: 2994

Re: FreeTaxUSA.com now has 2018 Return available.

Thanks for the replies. I might consider this option for 2018.
by stlutz
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 172
Views: 12911

Re: A reminder: Stay away from

I am talking about concentration in stock-characteristic space, which could include factor space (e.g. the 4-dimensional space comprising size, style, quality and momentum). If one is investing in only a small volume of stock-characteristic space, then one has a more concentrated and less diverse p...
by stlutz
Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 172
Views: 12911

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

The phrase "concentrating your holdings" is a peculiar way to refer to the process of diversification, and not one I think I've ever used nor is it one that I think accurately describes what's going on. My position is that a portfolio which has both value factor exposure AND market factor exposure ...
by stlutz
Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 24
Views: 1913

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

49 bps is a lot to pay for a strategy that one can easily execute themselves. They are only rebalancing/reconstituting twice per year. The good thing about having the ETF is it will provide for a true real life test of this strategy which has been discussed on this forum in the past. The question ha...
by stlutz
Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: iShares fee cuts
Replies: 14
Views: 3451

Re: iShares fee cuts

I do have to say that I find it unreasonable that iShares is still charging .15% for their Treasury bond ETFs. IEF hold 12 bonds...
by stlutz
Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FreeTaxUSA.com now has 2018 Return available.
Replies: 28
Views: 2994

Re: FreeTaxUSA.com now has 2018 Return available.

Does their system allow you to views the actual tax forms while you're filling in your information? The TaxHawk website says, "You can print your return for free once you've completed the filing process." I wasn't sure if I should read that literally to mean that I can't see my forms until after I'v...
by stlutz
Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investments with zero yield
Replies: 41
Views: 3497

Re: Investments with zero yield

Gold!
by stlutz
Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block 2018 Tax Software Deluxe Federal + State $29.95
Replies: 104
Views: 8273

Re: H&R Block 2018 Tax Software Deluxe Federal + State $29.95

If I might be so bold as to suggest.... I don't think a 5 or 10 or 15 dollar difference is going to make much of a difference to most of us in the long run. I would opt for downloading the software whenever you feel like it. Given the number of discussions we have as to whether one should switch fu...
by stlutz
Mon Nov 05, 2018 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Duration matching with TIPS funds instead of buying individual TIPs
Replies: 16
Views: 1244

Re: Duration matching with TIPS funds instead of buying individual TIPs

I think my objection still holds. Last time we discussed this in detail I was convinced Bob K was wrong. So, I setup a spreadsheet that: a) Had two "funds" holding a single TIPS issue--one long term and one short term. b) Assumed that I take out an inflation-adjusted amount from my funds each year ...
by stlutz
Sun Nov 04, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 2 year CD - taxable interest for ACA?
Replies: 7
Views: 447

Re: 2 year CD - taxable interest for ACA?

Yes, the interest accrued in 2019 will be taxable in 2019.
by stlutz
Sat Nov 03, 2018 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Have my first busted trades today
Replies: 33
Views: 3189

Re: Have my first busted trades today

For example, neither jfhenton's VSS/VFSVX arbitrage nor livesoft's RBD methodology require making any transactions at "the exact same instant." Actually livesoft does have this amusing post about how he sold shares he held at one brokerage to himself at another brokerage: https://www.bogleheads.org...
by stlutz
Sat Nov 03, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard website "unavailable during weekend of Nov 3"
Replies: 203
Views: 18309

Re: Vanguard website "unavailable during weekend of Nov 3"

Wow! This is almost as exciting and worrisome as when Bogleheads goes down for maintenance. Maybe LadyGeek isn't as fun-loving as I thought--she should have taken BH down at the same time just to see what would happen. Perhaps she was concern it would result in a spike in the national suicide rate?...
by stlutz
Sat Nov 03, 2018 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: iShares ETFs vs. Vanguard's Inv Grade Bond Index Funds
Replies: 4
Views: 595

Re: iShares ETFs vs. Vanguard's Inv Grade Bond Index Funds

You might want to check those ticker symbols. I assume you are comparing the iShares Short/Intermdiate/Long-Term "Corporate" Bond ETF vs. the Vanguard "Investment Grade" mutual funds. First I would note that VG does have "Corporate" bond funds/ETFs that almost match the iShares ones exactly. The dif...
by stlutz
Sat Nov 03, 2018 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Sometimes, It’s Bonds For the Long Run
Replies: 72
Views: 5970

Re: WSJ: Sometimes, It’s Bonds For the Long Run

For the purposes of a forward looking discussion: So, the iShares Long-Term Corporate bond ETF currently yields just under 5% with a duration of 13. Subtract .25% per year for credit losses and then another 2% for inflation and you have a relatively lower risk investment offering a 2.75% real rate o...
by stlutz
Sat Nov 03, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard website "unavailable during weekend of Nov 3"
Replies: 203
Views: 18309

Re: Vanguard website "unavailable during weekend of Nov 3"

Whether you use the phone app or a separate token, each has a unique ID that is non transferable. That is, you have to pick one or the other, and if you change phones or get a new token, you need to have your account linked to the new device ID.
by stlutz
Fri Nov 02, 2018 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Have my first busted trades today
Replies: 33
Views: 3189

Re: Have my first busted trades today

I don't follow how the OPs issue "demonstrates the problems with ETFs". Couldn't he have had a the exact same problem trying to place mutual fund orders shortly before the close?
by stlutz
Thu Nov 01, 2018 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Factor Funds vs Regular SCV tilting
Replies: 10
Views: 1150

Re: New Factor Funds vs Regular SCV tilting

Despite the spread on ISCF I've been able to trade very close to NAV. All the iShares factor funds have this property in my experience. I'm not sure if it's market makers jumping in and providing liquidity or what. See this thread (particularly the posts by vineviz): https://www.bogleheads.org/foru...
by stlutz
Thu Nov 01, 2018 8:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block 2018 Tax Software Deluxe Federal + State $29.95
Replies: 104
Views: 8273

Re: H&R Block 2018 Tax Software Deluxe Federal + State $29.95

There were a bunch of times it was less on Amazon last year and the download stays in your library there.

https://camelcamelcamel.com/Block-Softw ... B075XZZQ4D
by stlutz
Tue Oct 30, 2018 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard/Blackrock value index funds bias themselves to low growth, and not necessarily high risk, firms
Replies: 28
Views: 2485

Re: Vanguard/Blackrock value index funds bias themselves to low growth, and not necessarily high risk, firms

Sorry, but no. At least not completely: it's true that stocks in the "Pure Value" index are selected from the constituents of the base index that have 100% of their weight in the value basket, but it's not true that the "pure value index does indeed only contain value stocks with low earnings growt...
by stlutz
Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard/Blackrock value index funds bias themselves to low growth, and not necessarily high risk, firms
Replies: 28
Views: 2485

Re: Vanguard/Blackrock value index funds bias themselves to low growth, and not necessarily high risk, firms

I just want low price to fundamentals. I don't want low price to fundamentals and an additional ranking that specifically identifies stocks with low earnings growth. The Pure indices do not solve this problem, they exacerbate it. I definitely understand how the indices are constructed. Clearly you ...
by stlutz
Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we discourage the bond tent?
Replies: 53
Views: 4154

Re: Should we discourage the bond tent?

Suppose somebody retires at age 65 and they decide to annuitize their 401K. Between this and Social Security, their living needs are covered. They also have a Roth IRA and some taxable savings that are invested mostly in stocks. These assets could be used for various desires or extraordinary needs, ...
by stlutz
Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard/Blackrock value index funds bias themselves to low growth, and not necessarily high risk, firms
Replies: 28
Views: 2485

Re: Vanguard/Blackrock value index funds bias themselves to low growth, and not necessarily high risk, firms

It's worth remembering that the standard value/growth indices that have been around a long time were created first as benchmarks and second as investment products. If I'm going to split the market into a growth half and a value half, there is the question of what to do with stocks that exhibit both ...
by stlutz
Sun Oct 28, 2018 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Second thoughts about munis (wsj article)
Replies: 47
Views: 3921

Re: Second thoughts about munis (wsj article)

If one searches for individual munis within a particular ratings grade, the named states (IL, CT, NJ) always show up with the highest yields. (TX and WA also show up high because they don't have a state income tax). In short, the market is pricing in extra risk here. Whether it is pricing the extra ...
by stlutz
Fri Oct 26, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best Total International Stock ETF
Replies: 16
Views: 1226

Re: Best Total International Stock ETF

IXUS has generally had a higher percentage of dividends that qualify for the lower dividend tax rate which has made it somewhat more tax efficient than VXUS. As such, I prefer IXUS in a taxable account.
by stlutz
Thu Oct 25, 2018 12:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Alternative Approach To Alts
Replies: 45
Views: 5651

Re: Larry Swedroe: Alternative Approach To Alts

as a comparison point, how have bonds done during this same time period? Thanks.
VG IT Treasury Index was up .14% (price only), which I think is more what you were looking for.
by stlutz
Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Transferring money from Thrivent to Vanguard
Replies: 9
Views: 724

Re: Transferring money from Thrivent to Vanguard

thanks for the idea! capital gains is about $5000 total for the three taxable accounts. (3/4 accounts are taxable accts, 1 is a roth IRA that I'm pretty sure we just rollover into a new vanguard roth IRA without any capital gains tax.. correct?) Correct on the Roth IRA. Are you saying the total gai...
by stlutz
Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401(k) Provider Change - 25 days in cash?!
Replies: 29
Views: 1975

Re: 401(k) Provider Change - 25 days in cash?!

If you're worried about a big runup during the time you're out of the market, buying some options on SPY in another account could cover you for that possibility.
by stlutz
Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you take advantage of "volatility" in your investing strategy?
Replies: 15
Views: 1750

Re: Do you take advantage of "volatility" in your investing strategy?

Suppose you start out with 50% equities. Over time prices go up and you have 60% equities. The question is not whether it's better to start with 50% equities and never rebalance. The proper comparison is to a portfolio of 55% equities that you rebalance periodically. Which do you think does better?...
by stlutz
Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks, Inflation, and the Strategic Implications
Replies: 25
Views: 2309

Re: Stocks, Inflation, and the Strategic Implications

But I think the question is more about changes in the rate of inflation rather than the absolute level of inflation. So, inflation declining from, say, 12% to 5% would be considered "good" for stocks even though 5% inflation is still considered "high" in a mature economy. To test that out I just did...
by stlutz
Mon Oct 22, 2018 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you take advantage of "volatility" in your investing strategy?
Replies: 15
Views: 1750

Re: Do you take advantage of "volatility" in your investing strategy?

I once thought rebalancing was an approach that gave one a leg up in the use of market volatility. Then I was educated that holding without rebalancing actually produced better long-term gains. I do not rebalance now, or at least it is not in my plans to do so. Suppose you start out with 50% equiti...
by stlutz
Mon Oct 22, 2018 11:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hulu & NBC
Replies: 16
Views: 1375

Re: Hulu & NBC

Is YouTubeTV available where you are? Another option that could work is Locast, again depending on where you are. Final option is setting up the antenna in a better location.
by stlutz
Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shouldn't Fridays be higher than average due to 401k contributions?
Replies: 44
Views: 3222

Re: Shouldn't Fridays be higher than average due to 401k contributions?

I once had this theory that the market had short-term peaks on the days that my company's 401K contributions hit (which was on Fridays at the time). Of course, like everyone else in this thread, I never actually ran the backtest to validate or disprove my suspicion. So as of now we don't really seem...
by stlutz
Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long Term Bonds for Young Retirement Investors
Replies: 25
Views: 2244

Re: Long Term Bonds for Young Retirement Investors

But as far as I can tell this notion is controversial in academic circles. For example Expected Returns by Antti Ilmanen he indicates duration risk is not rewarded past 7 or so year maturity (in fact the returns go down a bit after that). This was from a fairly neutral sample (1952-2009). He called...
by stlutz
Sun Oct 21, 2018 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Large Cap Value - valuation?
Replies: 16
Views: 1083

Re: US Large Cap Value - valuation?

etf.com has a formula that accounts for negative earnings which I assume is why it is higher. A lot of places just assume zero. Or they take a median or do something else like that. From prior threads we were able to figure out that etf.com is treating the entire index as a single company--it sums ...
by stlutz
Sun Oct 21, 2018 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2 rental car reservations?
Replies: 23
Views: 1397

Re: 2 rental car reservations?

Many rental agencies provide discounts for paying in advance, which means they charge more if you don't. So I'm not sure where people get the idea that they aren't trying to get people to pay in advance.
by stlutz
Sun Oct 21, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Large Cap Value - valuation?
Replies: 16
Views: 1083

Re: US Large Cap Value - valuation?

The trailing PE for the Vanguard [Large Cap] value fund is 20.6. https://www.etf.com/VTV I wouldn't call that cheap. Let's keep in mind a two things: 1) Value stocks have not done poorly over the past decade. They have gone up. A lot. Just not as much as growth stocks have. 2) Historically value out...
by stlutz
Sun Oct 21, 2018 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long Term Bonds for Young Retirement Investors
Replies: 25
Views: 2244

Re: Long Term Bonds for Young Retirement Investors

Using the "Simba" spreadsheet, here are the returns, volatility, and Sharpe Ratio of 3 distinct periods in time: 1960-1980 LT: CAGR: 7.29% St. Dev. 13.62% Sharpe Ratio. .19 IT: CAGR: 7.69% St. Dev. 13.60% Sharpe .21 ST: CAGR: 7.98% St. Dev. 13.67% Sharpe .23 1981-2000 LT: CAGR: 14.11% St. Dev. 12.33...
by stlutz
Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a case for Active in fixed income?
Replies: 16
Views: 1665

Re: Is there a case for Active in fixed income?

Given that there are about 5 threads going on now promoting various approaches to timing the bond market, the opinion of the forum seems to be "yes". :?
by stlutz
Sun Oct 21, 2018 1:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 198
Views: 10882

Re: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

I'm not stuck on 'safe withdrawal rates', but the bottom line is that any withdrawal method that is not based on a percentage of the portfolio's balance (i.e. has some 'fixed' element to it) has some degree of exposure to sequence of returns risk. Dear Willthrill81, It's mathematics: VPW doesn't ha...
by stlutz
Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Consumer Price Index and medication etc. Why TIPS?
Replies: 5
Views: 608

Re: Consumer Price Index and medication etc. Why TIPS?

The bond market doesn't really care about the price of your particular medication. Right now the yield difference between a nominal 10 year bond and a 10 year TIPS is about 2.1%. If CPI-U inflation is higher than that, then TIPS will perform better; if CPI-U inflation is lower, then nominal bonds wo...
by stlutz
Sat Oct 20, 2018 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 147
Views: 16582

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

A few years back I did a backtest using the Simba/Siamond spreadsheet and concluded that in a 60/40 portfolio, bank CDs historically would have needed to yield 1.2% above a 5 year Treasury to provide the equivalent portfolio return and volatility as an intermediate term Treasury fund. https://www.bo...
by stlutz
Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Roth IRA: Hitting mutual fund limits at the beginning
Replies: 16
Views: 1319

Re: Investing in Roth IRA: Hitting mutual fund limits at the beginning

What is your 401K invested in? The most commonly recommended approach here is to look at all of your assets as a single porfolio as opposed to treating each account separately.

For example, you may just use standard total market funds in your 401K and then use your Roth IRA for the tilts.
by stlutz
Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Start a Treasury Ladder... or not?
Replies: 17
Views: 2319

Re: Start a Treasury Ladder... or not?

The yield pickup between buying a 4 month bill vs. a 6 month bill is not that much. Agree with this too, but that was not the comparison. The comparison was a 6-month Treasury ladder to the Vanguard Treasury MM fund. For that comparison, the 6-month ladder has a higher yield (without compromising a...
by stlutz
Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Have you annuitized some of your money?
Replies: 67
Views: 5855

Re: Have you annuitized some of your money?

Thanks for the input :D . If I create my own portfolio using a mix of Treasury and investment grade corporate bonds to wind up with that same 3.8% return, I am taking risk in the corporate bond arena. If I am willing to take risk of that degree with these funds, than I would want a higher return th...