Search found 4357 matches

by stlutz
Sun May 20, 2018 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does your value fund own the wrong value stocks?
Replies: 25
Views: 2733

Re: Does your value fund own the wrong value stocks?

Actually RZV would be the better comparison since it also follows the Pure Value index.

SLYV tracks the regular plain old value index. At least it dies current. I think it changed indexes along the way.
by stlutz
Sat May 19, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Finding CUSIP number for a brokered CD?
Replies: 3
Views: 172

Re: Finding CUSIP number for a brokered CD?

You can register at fidelity.com w/o having a Fidelity account. That is a possible route to looking up the cusip.
by stlutz
Sat May 19, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 206
Views: 28143

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

The agency bonds are rated AA+ because that is the rating of the US Government. So, same rating as Treasuries.
by stlutz
Sat May 19, 2018 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial times: Wealthfront's experiment in risk parity has a rocky start
Replies: 14
Views: 1765

Re: Financial times: Wealthfront's experiment in risk parity has a rocky start

Vanguard Life Strategy Moderate Growth outperformed both WF and the AQR fund for this. Meaningless but fun to note this this is of course Bogleheads.
by stlutz
Fri May 18, 2018 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low
Replies: 51
Views: 4846

Re: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low

One can also run a factor regression to see to what extent their chosen index fund has "unexplained" returns--a.k.a. negative or positive alpha. Here I compare the VG Smallcap index fund, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, and the DFA Smallcap fund: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/factor-analysis?s=y...
by stlutz
Fri May 18, 2018 8:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Registering complaint with American Airlines/American Eagle?
Replies: 25
Views: 1414

Re: Registering complaint with American Airlines/American Eagle?

If you're likely to fly American again in the future, I'd make a complaint and ask them to give you a travel voucher. If you state specifically what you are looking for, and you're being reasonable in the amount, they will often be reasonable in kind. I've made written complaints twice in the past t...
by stlutz
Thu May 17, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: brokerage firm recommendations for CDs
Replies: 10
Views: 906

Re: brokerage firm recommendations for CDs

Note that brokered CD rates are not always better than direct CDs. The rates on brokered CDs tend to respond to change (up or down) more quickly than Direct CDs. Not sure if one or the other is better on average.
by stlutz
Wed May 16, 2018 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!
Replies: 39
Views: 2838

Re: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!

Just because something has growth in its name doesn't mean it is the opposite of value. For example the S&P 600 Growth ETF has in fact had a positive and significant 'value tilt Robert: I would highly recommend the paper that JoMoney linked (and that we originally discussed a few years back in this...
by stlutz
Wed May 16, 2018 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Risks Of Short Selling
Replies: 8
Views: 1103

Re: Larry Swedroe: Risks Of Short Selling

Relative to the overall market, this board is pretty optimistic. The overall global stock/bond mix is about 40/60, but around here 60/40 is looked at as fairly conservative and everyone is implored to "stay the course" when they are thinking about dumping their stocks because the market dropped, bec...
by stlutz
Wed May 16, 2018 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 464
Views: 24211

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

Also keep in mind that it's your effective tax rate that matters when you withdraw. When you save it's the marginal rate. When I contribute to my 401K, it reduces my taxable income--thus I'm taking money "off the top" in terms of income. Whatever bracket I'm in, I'm getting a deduction at my margina...
by stlutz
Wed May 16, 2018 12:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bicycle insurance? when you're in the roadway like a car
Replies: 38
Views: 3116

Re: Bicycle insurance? when you're in the roadway like a car

Are you saying you disagree with the observations above? I see the same thing every day What I was laughing at was the picture of this utopia where there are perfectly law-abiding motorists who are driving the speed limit, coming to a complete stop at every stop sign, not gunning it when the turns ...
by stlutz
Wed May 16, 2018 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Risks Of Short Selling
Replies: 8
Views: 1103

Re: Larry Swedroe: Risks Of Short Selling

Without short-sellers, equity prices can become overvalued, because only optimists are expressing their opinions on valuations. This doesn't really make sense. Choosing not to buy expresses a negative opinion, not a neutral one. If nobody wants to own something, the price goes to zero. No short sel...
by stlutz
Tue May 15, 2018 5:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bicycle insurance? when you're in the roadway like a car
Replies: 38
Views: 3116

Re: Bicycle insurance? when you're in the roadway like a car

I see cyclists routinely using bike lanes then blasting thru red lights, making illegal turns, ignoring stop signs etc doing everything one in a car is not allowed to do despite being required to observe the same rules when in the roadway. I've almost gotten into accidents because of bicyclists on ...
by stlutz
Tue May 15, 2018 5:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bicycle insurance? when you're in the roadway like a car
Replies: 38
Views: 3116

Re: Bicycle insurance? when you're in the roadway like a car

How medical bills get paid in the case of an auto crash varies from state to state. So, nobody can answer that question without knowing where you live. For example, the concept of "PIP" doesn't even apply in my state, where your health insurer pays first and they may be entitled to recover a part of...
by stlutz
Mon May 14, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Long Bond ETF VCLT .in 2008 scenario?
Replies: 6
Views: 430

Re: Vanguard Long Bond ETF VCLT .in 2008 scenario?

The benchmark for Vanguard Long-Term Investment Grade (mutual fund only; no ETF) is a long-term corporate bond index. It was down .24% in 2008.

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... rue#tab=1a
by stlutz
Mon May 14, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New inflation-protected ETF launches: iShares Inflation Hedged Corporate Bond ETF (LQDI)
Replies: 27
Views: 2209

Re: New inflation-protected ETF launches: iShares Inflation Hedged Corporate Bond ETF (LQDI)

BTW, how comfortable are you with trading futures? Swaps are just a bundle of forwards, and futures are just forwards that trade on a open market. TIPS and I-Bonds are your friends. It was more of a curiosity question. If one can inflation hedge the LQD ETF, well, then you can theoretically inflati...
by stlutz
Mon May 14, 2018 5:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bicycle insurance? when you're in the roadway like a car
Replies: 38
Views: 3116

Re: Bicycle insurance? when you're in the roadway like a car

Homeowners insurance generally provides some overall liability insurance. Can apply to someone walking across the street as well.
by stlutz
Mon May 14, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New inflation-protected ETF launches: iShares Inflation Hedged Corporate Bond ETF (LQDI)
Replies: 27
Views: 2209

Re: New inflation-protected ETF launches: iShares Inflation Hedged Corporate Bond ETF (LQDI)

Is there any way for an individual investor to purchase inflation swaps directly? Was googling and didn't turn up anything...
by stlutz
Sun May 13, 2018 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 9905

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

To me one of the myths that ERN's results demonstrate is that high (80%) equity allocations can provide for stable withdrawals across time. Of course he doesn't list that as a myth because, well, he's a proponent of high equity allocations. :D That said, I think the "myths" he is referring to are mo...
by stlutz
Sun May 13, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curves-Treasury, CD, AA/AAA muni
Replies: 91
Views: 8657

Re: Yield Curves-Treasury, CD, AA/AAA muni

When I look at your chart, it appears to me that 3 year treasuries yield 3%? Where should I look to find that? I am probably looking in the wrong place or misunderstand. I see on CNBC, treasury direct May 15th issue, and Fidelity for treasuries maturing in 3 years..... 2.6-2.7% for a 3 year treasur...
by stlutz
Sun May 13, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bondholders vs. pensions
Replies: 50
Views: 2960

Re: Muni bondholders vs. pensions

Regarding individual bonds: The problem with owning a dozen or so AA or AAA rated bonds is that if a couple of them get downgraded (not unrealistic in a recession scenario), suddenly your muni portfolio has a fair amount of undiversified risk. One can alleviate the likelihood of this problem by stic...
by stlutz
Sat May 12, 2018 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Factors Suggesting One Should Buy SPIA
Replies: 90
Views: 6557

Re: Factors Suggesting One Should Buy SPIA

As I recall the suggestion by Pfau is that the proper pairing is SPIA with equities in comparison to bonds with equities This is where annuities can get interesting is as a fixed-income alternative. Just for fun I thought I'd try disregarding Taylor's advice and considered a 50 year old couple who ...
by stlutz
Fri May 11, 2018 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bondholders vs. pensions
Replies: 50
Views: 2960

Re: Muni bondholders vs. pensions

Arizona has it. Thanks for the info. Apparently I was wrong in how unique IL is. Interesting discussion of the differences between various states: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2017/11/02/the-legalities-of-pension-reform-how-do-you-get-there-from-here/?noredirect=on&utm_t...
by stlutz
Fri May 11, 2018 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anything wrong with too many lots?
Replies: 47
Views: 4686

Re: Anything wrong with too many lots?

By law they have to transfer cost basis.
by stlutz
Fri May 11, 2018 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bondholders vs. pensions
Replies: 50
Views: 2960

Re: Muni bondholders vs. pensions

The Illinois Constitution states, "Membership in any pension or retirement system of the state, any unit of local government or school district, or any agency or instrumentality thereof, shall be an enforceable contractual relationship, the benefits of which shall not be diminished or impaired." Tha...
by stlutz
Fri May 11, 2018 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bondholders vs. pensions
Replies: 50
Views: 2960

Re: Muni bondholders vs. pensions

Illinois is fairly unique in terms of the broad constitutional protection offered to public employee pensions. That protection does not exist in most states. That said, the numbers don't really add up for states ever meeting their pension obligations. I've been gradually reducing my muni bond alloca...
by stlutz
Thu May 10, 2018 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: buying treasuries and cd's at Fidelity
Replies: 6
Views: 856

Re: buying treasuries and cd's at Fidelity

Straight Treasury bonds are commission free. Zeros and agency bonds are not.

Most agency bonds are callable, which is the primary reason for the higher yields--you may not get that yield for very long until the bond gets called.
by stlutz
Wed May 09, 2018 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why are stock returns expected to be so low over the next decade?
Replies: 27
Views: 4469

Re: Why are stock returns expected to be so low over the next decade?

There is no such thing as "the" expected return. Different people have different expectations for different reasons.

Is there anything in particular your disagree with in the VG logic or in the logic used in the prior threads?
by stlutz
Wed May 09, 2018 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?
Replies: 23
Views: 2386

Re: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?

5 year returns: VG ST Treasury ETF: .38% VG IT Treasury ETF: .54% VG LT Treasury ETF: 1.96% 1 year returns: VG ST Treasury ETF: -.39% VG IT Treasury ETF: -2.06% VG LT Treasury ETF: -.4% So, which is the "best"? One thing to keep in mind is that longer-term rates are less volatile than shorter-term o...
by stlutz
Wed May 09, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF's vs. Mutual Funds in Market Panics
Replies: 21
Views: 1632

Re: ETF's vs. Mutual Funds in Market Panics

The article is complete and total bunk. It uses the types of false arguments that really get under my skin. You're being way too charitable. The article misleads by confusing how ETFs are traded vs. what is held. An ETF absolutely owns real assets. SPY or IVV really own all 500 stocks in the S&P 50...
by stlutz
Wed May 09, 2018 3:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Growth, value, or International ETFs better for Roth IRA?
Replies: 6
Views: 442

Re: Growth, value, or International ETFs better for Roth IRA?

What do you hold in your 401k? Because low cost fund options can be limited in 401k accounts, that's the place to start with your allocation. Then use the Roth to fill holes if they exist. What the other posters are saying is that they don't know what fund makes sense in your Roth because they don't...
by stlutz
Wed May 09, 2018 3:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Idea: An exchange to buy/sell ETFs at the NAV?
Replies: 10
Views: 544

Re: Idea: An exchange to buy/sell ETFs at the NAV?

Fidelity and Rydex used to offer intraday trading on some funds. I think they stopped when ETFs took off. The problem with NAV is it is something of an unknown number at any given moment for many funds. Think international funds when European and Asian markets are closed or bond funds where the unde...
by stlutz
Tue May 08, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?
Replies: 23
Views: 2386

Re: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?

I think the problem with managing duration is that the decision about the optimal number to use can be arbitrary--no more so that just using the market average. But more fundamentally, 4.8 vs. 6.1 isn't that much different. On what basis would one determine that the former is good but the later is w...
by stlutz
Tue May 08, 2018 12:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: DAF with <$5k minimum contribution?
Replies: 17
Views: 1117

Re: DAF with <$5k minimum contribution?

...our annual donations With the new tax law, annual donations may not be the way to go. Instead, use a DAF to bunch your contributions into a single year (with the corresponding deduction) and then give nothing and take the standard deduction other years. This all depends on one's exact tax situat...
by stlutz
Tue May 08, 2018 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 97
Views: 10599

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

I'm starting to think that maybe we should change our standard response to the "OMG, I can't handle a 1% drop in the value of my bond fund--aren't individual bonds better?" question. I commonly say that a bond fund is nothing more or less than a collection of individual bonds. An individual bond por...
by stlutz
Sat May 05, 2018 5:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: most compelling TV character ever
Replies: 175
Views: 16079

Re: most compelling TV character ever

Completely agree with Gregory House, as least from the first several seasons

The entire cast if the B&W Andy Griffith as well. Andy, Barney, Opie, Aunt Bea, Floyd, Goober. All of them are so memorable. The later seasons in color were terrible.
by stlutz
Fri May 04, 2018 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LMP vs 3-Fund SWR
Replies: 7
Views: 508

Re: LMP vs 3-Fund SWR

Liability matching portfolios really weren't designed for people retiring at 50. Yes, you could buy an annuity with a COLA adjustment, but few would recommend that strategy. Now, some people are rich enough that they can invest very conservatively at age 50 if they wanted to, but they type of people...
by stlutz
Fri May 04, 2018 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lower expected stock returns means lower expected volatility?
Replies: 28
Views: 2067

Re: Lower expected stock returns means lower expected volatility?

Historically, poor market returns generally correlate to higher volatility, while good returns and low volatility go together.
by stlutz
Fri May 04, 2018 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Factors In Fixed Income
Replies: 30
Views: 2644

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factors In Fixed Income

But the strategy that Dave is promoting is a long-short strategy. Or, to quote from the Swedroe article: At the beginning of each month, for each style, the authors formed tercile portfolios of country assets based on their respective country style metrics and created a position that goes long the m...
by stlutz
Fri May 04, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does your value fund own the wrong value stocks?
Replies: 25
Views: 2733

Does your value fund own the wrong value stocks?

Interesting article from O'Shaughnessy Assest Management about how the use of Price/Book is putting a lot of stocks that value investors should be interested in into the growth bucket.

http://www.osam.com/Commentary/negative ... ce-to-book
by stlutz
Fri May 04, 2018 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Fund Choice
Replies: 2
Views: 434

Re: Bond Fund Choice

Without getting into a bunch of theoretical debates about which types of bonds are the "best" or pretending that I'd offer a different opinion if I knew what percentage of your stock portfolio is international, the combination you have is just fine. Really, it's hard to go wrong with any Vanguard sh...
by stlutz
Thu May 03, 2018 11:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2019 Corolla Hatchback
Replies: 9
Views: 1053

Re: 2019 Corolla Hatchback

I looked at the 2017 Corolla iM last year but ended up buying a Prius. When you factor the lifetime cost of ownership, the Prius was actually a cheaper car and a nicer one to boot. Haven't looked if the Corolla Hatchback price has dropped or not.
by stlutz
Thu May 03, 2018 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ed. Jones rep didn't like our plan, now we're locked out
Replies: 152
Views: 17732

Re: Ed. Jones rep didn't like our plan, now we're locked out

3. Lastly, since we are now considering transferring everything to Charles Schwab, can a brokered CD ladder be transferred between brokerages? I don’t want my parents to take a loss on selling the CD’s early and am fine with holding each to maturity with Ed. Jones and buying new CD’s at Schwab with...
by stlutz
Wed May 02, 2018 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Agressive factor Investing
Replies: 44
Views: 4044

Re: Agressive factor Investing

Staythecourse, I get your point. Yes, we don’t know what the factors will do in the future with regard to returns and correlation.But my statement is generally correct looking forward. The point is simply that a more diversified portfolio, diversified across uncorrelated sources of return, will pre...
by stlutz
Wed May 02, 2018 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Agressive factor Investing
Replies: 44
Views: 4044

Re: Agressive factor Investing

If I own, say VLUE and MTUM, who care if VLUE is selling a stock and MTUM is buying it? Those ETFs have excellent tracking vs. their bogeys (trailing by just a bit more than their expense ratio), so I'm not seeing that anything is lost if you owned both of these. That’s the point! We don’t see what...
by stlutz
Tue May 01, 2018 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Agressive factor Investing
Replies: 44
Views: 4044

Re: Agressive factor Investing

I agree, when possible best to use core funds that access multiple factors, then add small amounts of individual factor funds to get the tilts you want. The core funds are cheaper, rebalance internally with other people’s money, and avoid the problem of one fund in portfolio selling a position when...
by stlutz
Tue May 01, 2018 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special
Replies: 49
Views: 7020

Re: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special

I read the article. Both papers seem carefully done. But there is something missing from research best practice i think- in sample vs out of sample. The idea is to divide your period into two halves. Do your regression on the first half (in sample). Then see if what you come up with holds for the s...
by stlutz
Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Android browser do you use?
Replies: 44
Views: 2565

Re: What Android browser do you use?

Firefox
by stlutz
Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Liquidity Risk Not Worth It
Replies: 35
Views: 4942

Re: Larry Swedroe: Liquidity Risk Not Worth It

So we read a lot into the article that wasn't really there as I didn't see any reference to Treasuries in the article. There was a mention of the differences in liquidity between the stock market and the corporate bond market. I guess we read an article and then rode our own hobby horses that had l...