Search found 3905 matches

by stlutz
Thu Sep 21, 2017 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF
Replies: 95
Views: 4299

Re: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF

I agree with the OP. I want Vanguard to create ultra low cost competition where it doesn't currently exist. Gold is one. High yield bonds are another.

I say that as somebody who is neither looking for gold or high yield bonds.
by stlutz
Sat Sep 16, 2017 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Basic questions on credit ratings
Replies: 5
Views: 647

Re: Basic questions on credit ratings

Here is a chart showing the spread between BBB corporates and Treasuries over the past 20 years: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A4CBBB My conclusion is that the spread is not unusually low for good economic times, but the spread definitely assumes good economic times... The ratings do not ...
by stlutz
Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inherited IRA has 16 Corp Bonds in it
Replies: 16
Views: 1082

Re: Inherited IRA has 16 Corp Bonds in it

For the longer term bonds, there is a fairly reasonable chance that those companies will go through bankruptcy before they mature. Personally I would hold the 2018/19 ones until they mature and sell the rest. The corporate bond market is pretty liquid and unloading them should not be all that diffic...
by stlutz
Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retirement - Living in Colorado
Replies: 33
Views: 3288

Re: Retirement - Living in Colorado

When your're looking at moving to a rapidly growing community, I would try to find out what city the Chamber of Commerce types want to be like (since they tend to have a huge influence on development planning). I had a friend who used to work for the Denver Chamber (who since moved) who once told me...
by stlutz
Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: US removing Kaspersky Antivirus from government computers
Replies: 38
Views: 3384

Re: US removing Kaspersky Antivirus from government computers

The Microsoft solution with Windows 10 is the way to go in my opinion. The third party options all all so obtrusive and can often be virus-like in their own behavior. Like others, I've never had a virus on a Windows computer. Perhaps a sign I spend too much time on Bogleheads and not enough on other...
by stlutz
Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Customer Service
Replies: 295
Views: 30804

Re: Vanguard Customer Service

Just fyi. Many of Vanguards admiral shares (and investor class shares as well) can be converted to equivalent ETF shares without creating a taxable event. The ETF shares are fully portable and can be transferred in kind to Fidelity, Schwab, etc. Of course the problem with this approach is that you ...
by stlutz
Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Turned down for umbrella insurance
Replies: 56
Views: 4819

Re: Turned down for umbrella insurance

As I recall when I got my policy w/ Amica they were mainly interested in how many boats I owned (which is zero). Regardless, don't take it personally that an insurance company turned you down for whatever reason--just go someplace else. Different companies have different approaches to risk management.
by stlutz
Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Lower Cost USA Cities to Live
Replies: 102
Views: 7083

Re: Best Lower Cost USA Cities to Live

Compared to NYC or the Bay area, everywhere is cheap. If that is your measuring stick, the whole rest of the country is your oyster. If the whole rest of the country is your measuring stick, Denver and Bozeman are HCOL.
by stlutz
Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ownership of "small cap value" stocks
Replies: 50
Views: 3181

Re: ownership of "small cap value" stocks

Breaking down AAN by ownership :
TSM index funds : 5%
Mid cap funds : 6%
small cap funds : 28%
institutions : 60%
What do you think the percentages should be? That is, what do you think would be consistent with investors not having piled into the stock and bid the price way up?
by stlutz
Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ownership of "small cap value" stocks
Replies: 50
Views: 3181

Re: ownership of "small cap value" stocks

Has the spread in valuations between the high and low ends of the market narrowed? Where is the evidence that SCV has 'been bid up' over the last decade? I contend that you have no way of knowing. Suppose the market trades at 25x earnings and value as a group trades at 18x. Further suppose with the...
by stlutz
Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ownership of "small cap value" stocks
Replies: 50
Views: 3181

Re: ownership of "small cap value" stocks

I actually question the premise behind the OP. Who else would own the smallcap value stocks if it's not small and value funds? Total market funds aren't going to own any higher proportion of La Quinta Holdings than they do of Exxon Mobil--that's the definition of being a total market fund--if you ow...
by stlutz
Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Embracing The Downside
Replies: 2
Views: 1071

Re: Larry Swedroe: Embracing The Downside

I don't know--this seems to be another case of converting a situation where the market was historically wrong into one where the market was necessarily wrong. The strategy of selling options to earn a market-beating return is getting more press of late from a variety of sources, including early-reti...
by stlutz
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "Luxury" Vinyl vs Laminate flooring?
Replies: 35
Views: 2649

Re: "Luxury" Vinyl vs Laminate flooring?

Quick Step now has waterproof laminate flooring: https://www.quick-step.co.uk/en-gb/campaigns/waterproof-laminate I haven't used this particular product myself but do have QS non-waterproof floors in the main living areas of my home and have been very happy with the appearance and durability. With b...
by stlutz
Sun Sep 10, 2017 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'
Replies: 34
Views: 3482

Re: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'

it appears that Consumer Staples are still more expensive than the market.
I"m looking at trailing earnings (22 for VDC vs 26 for VTI)
by stlutz
Sun Sep 10, 2017 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'
Replies: 34
Views: 3482

Re: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'

A lot of the stocks mentioned in the article are the classic consumer staples stocks which also tend to be the low volatility stocks. People have piled into these VDC (Vanguard's Consumer Staples ETF) has underperformed the market over the past 1, 3, and 5 years as well as YTD. VDC has outperformed...
by stlutz
Sun Sep 10, 2017 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 143
Views: 13202

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

Sandy in 2012 was about $30 billion in insurance losses, Ike in 2008 was ~$20 billion - looking at the category hurricanes isn't really meaningful measure here. When Larry said they modeled 2005 would have been down 15% that was taking into account Katrina, Wilma, Rita, the tsunami, probably residu...
by stlutz
Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Security
Replies: 43
Views: 3791

Re: Fidelity Security

How does the VIP app really provide any extra security? To deactivate it all you have to do is call...
by stlutz
Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SEC plans to approve Vanguard request to list actively managed ETFs
Replies: 10
Views: 1163

Re: SEC plans to approve Vanguard request to list actively managed ETFs

Their Global Minimum Variance fund was always the most rumored one when they originally made the application.

Daily reporting of holdings would be a big change for Vanguard. They are pretty much the last holdout on this point among ETF issuers.
by stlutz
Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 350
Views: 33229

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

P.S: the problems with buckets in the traditional sense, is when some considers it to be superior...having non-volatile bucket for immediate spending etc. and saying that's a better strategy....nothing superior about it vs overall portfolio having the same mix of asset "types". True that in the end...
by stlutz
Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the "safe, safe" withdrawal rate?
Replies: 38
Views: 3973

Re: What is the "safe, safe" withdrawal rate?

I looked into getting the same $10,000 of yearly CPI COLA income without doing the TIPS ladder and found a couple would have to pay $295K for a SIPA. This is very similar to your annuity +TIPS ladder. For the sake of simplicity, wouldn't just buying a SPIA better? Arguably, yes. I wanted to account...
by stlutz
Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the "safe, safe" withdrawal rate?
Replies: 38
Views: 3973

Re: What is the "safe, safe" withdrawal rate?

Who underwrites inflation indexed annuities these days, don't see any listed at immediate annuities.com There is currently only 1 provider (Principal). Almost everyone sells annuities with fixed COLAs. A 3% per year COLA is actually cheaper than a CPI one. I personally would be tempted to go with t...
by stlutz
Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do ETF's present a systemic risk?
Replies: 71
Views: 4895

Re: Do ETF's present a systemic risk?

Systemic risk almost always arises from the combination of leveraged positions in assets that are illiquid (or become illiquid). "Problems" can result with ETFs when the underlying assets are not that liquid (as with high yield bonds or muni bonds), but that's generally limited to trading at a disco...
by stlutz
Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the "safe, safe" withdrawal rate?
Replies: 38
Views: 3973

What is the "safe, safe" withdrawal rate?

We've had a couple of threads recently about SWRs (discussing comments from Kitces & Bengen), and oh, maybe two or three other threads over the past several years that also consider the thoughts from other "experts" (Bernstein, Pfau, Swedroe). After I posted in one of the other threads, I got to won...
by stlutz
Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 350
Views: 33229

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

LPMs have a 20% failure rate

The problem with LMP is that it underestimates the costs substantially. It does this by constructing unrealistic scenarios and not actually matching liabilities.
What did people do when they relied on traditional pension plans for income in retirement?
by stlutz
Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do I estimate the probability that an ETF will delist?
Replies: 4
Views: 514

Re: How do I estimate the probability that an ETF will delist?

In the US, I don't believe Vanguard has ever shut down an ETF, even ones that are small. Other issuers are more aggressive in this regard.
by stlutz
Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Retail banks - switching from Chase
Replies: 23
Views: 2107

Re: Best Retail banks - switching from Chase

Schwab Bank has provided the best customer service of any financial firm I've ever dealt with. I haven't had any major issues, but one time a check got cashed for the wrong amount and twice an international ATM fee didn't get reimbursed automatically. In all three cases the problem was resolved by t...
by stlutz
Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:00 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: SITE OFFLINE Sunday 10 AM Eastern (14:00 UTC) - software upgrade
Replies: 13
Views: 1234

Re: SITE OFFLINE Sunday 10 AM Eastern (14:00 UTC) - software upgrade

The site admins are volunteers who have day jobs. I'm sure for the right price they would be willing to work nights. :wink:

Thanks for all of the work you do, Lady Geek and team!
by stlutz
Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vangard Index Fund through Merrill Edge
Replies: 26
Views: 1960

Re: Vangard Index Fund through Merrill Edge

If you want VG mutual funds, open an account at Vanguard.

Vanguard ETFs work most anywhere, but it sounds like you prefer funds over ETFs.
by stlutz
Fri Sep 01, 2017 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 350
Views: 33229

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

I recognize that it would have worked out just fine. The market soaring the way it has in the last 8 years was by no means guaranteed, however.

Was Kitces recommending 6% in the spring of 2009?
by stlutz
Fri Sep 01, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 350
Views: 33229

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

This is the main point in the Kitces work. That by merely taking 4%, you are insuring against exactly that...a big drop in the early years. So, yes, if the market crashes in half, you can continue taking your original 4%, plus inflation, even though it's not actually 6 of 7% of your original balanc...
by stlutz
Fri Sep 01, 2017 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing
Replies: 126
Views: 9045

Re: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing

But personally, I tend to prefer historical observations to free speculation, while still taking such observations with a grain of salt.
I like that way of putting it. I agree.
by stlutz
Fri Sep 01, 2017 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are total bond funds much risker than cd's?
Replies: 10
Views: 1532

Re: Are total bond funds much risker than cd's?

Yes, it is the case that total bond is riskier than CDs--it takes much more duration risk and also has some credit risk. If CDs are a 1 out of 10 in terms of riskiness and TSM is an 8, well total bond may be a 3. On the tax front, it's generally more efficient to place low yielding fixed in your tax...
by stlutz
Fri Sep 01, 2017 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest Rate Risk (real vs. nominal)
Replies: 4
Views: 297

Re: Interest Rate Risk (real vs. nominal)

Regarding the actual question, we've seen the opposite happen quite recently--rates and inflation went down, and TIPS went down because expectations of future inflation went down. So, it's quite reasonable to expect that the opposite would happen if inflation and inflation expectations rose to, say,...
by stlutz
Fri Sep 01, 2017 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest Rate Risk (real vs. nominal)
Replies: 4
Views: 297

Re: Interest Rate Risk (real vs. nominal)

To look at it over a longer time period (1 week :D ), the 7 year TIPS rate has declined by 15 basis points while the nominal rate has decline by 1 basis point, which I find odd given the wage numbers reported this morning.
by stlutz
Fri Sep 01, 2017 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing
Replies: 126
Views: 9045

Re: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing

That is an intriguing way to put it. Well, one observation is that backtesting shows that SCV Sharpe/Sortino ratios were usually better than TSM (at least in the US). Why? Well, because std-deviation was not much higher than TSM, and returns were definitely better. Ergo, I would observe that SCV ha...
by stlutz
Fri Sep 01, 2017 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New issue vs secondary CDs at Vanguard
Replies: 2
Views: 400

Re: New issue vs secondary CDs at Vanguard

I think you should be banned from the forum for actually calling your broker and asking for help with an issue. :D

In all seriousness, that is a good customer service datapoint that they were able to help you out.
by stlutz
Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 350
Views: 33229

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

I think the "two vacations a year instead of four" formulation is perhaps too dismissive. The reason the retiring in 1966 scenario is so disturbing to study is that a) you find out rather quickly you can't take out as much as you might have hoped; b) once you made the adjustment to lower your withdr...
by stlutz
Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing
Replies: 126
Views: 9045

Re: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing

I think there is another way of looking at this. By investing in SCV you ARE placing faith in the market's ability to set asset prices. For all the reasons you mention, SCV is riskier and the market appropriately sets prices to generate a higher return. SCV is generally categorized as something in ...
by stlutz
Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab Onesource Total US and Total World?
Replies: 9
Views: 914

Re: Schwab Onesource Total US and Total World?

If you want a single total international fund at Schwab, paying the $4.95 and buying VXUS or IXUS is the way to go. If you don't want to pay a commission, then the 75% SCHF, 15% SCHE, 10% SCHC combination is the best available option.
by stlutz
Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you know your bond portfolio's REAL 12 month total return?
Replies: 61
Views: 4075

Re: Do you know your bond portfolio's REAL 12 month total return?

As of 8/31, the one-year total return for some commonly-used funds here: IT Tax Exempt: .96% IT Govt' Bond: -.19% Total Bond: .33% IT Bond Index: .51% VG TIPS Fund: .49% Interestingly, the damage was done in the later part of 2016, not this year in the so-called "rising rate environment". Same funds...
by stlutz
Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demographic Headwinds for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 47
Views: 4896

Re: Demographic Headwinds for Stocks and Bonds?

If I look at this chart (ratio of household debt to personal income), I'm seeing that times of sluggish economic performance correspond to periods of declining debt/savings.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=6RBY
by stlutz
Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing
Replies: 126
Views: 9045

Re: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing

Actually, I think I partially disagree with packer's post. When I think "value investing", the place I start is Graham and Dodd. The thing about them is that for their time they were highly quantitative in their approach. They were more focused on the facts of the numbers than on more intangible que...
by stlutz
Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:07 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: [Are the Bogleheads] getting less interesting?
Replies: 255
Views: 16185

Re: [Are the Bogleheads] getting less interesting?

I personally thought a lot of the back and forth on Larry Swedroe posts had gotten a little stale. There are a lot more approaches to investing issues that just the ones he advocated. In time I think we will get more willingness to explore a little more.
by stlutz
Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:03 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: [Are the Bogleheads] getting less interesting?
Replies: 255
Views: 16185

Re: [Are the Bogleheads] getting less interesting?

Markets haven't been that volatile the past couple of years. When today's world seems fundamentally different than the one of a year ago, things are more interesting.

However, in reality I don't want to live in "interesting times." :)
by stlutz
Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"
Replies: 119
Views: 13748

Re: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"

Wow, that's a lot higher than what I expected. A lifetime annuity for two opposite-sex spouses aged 65 in my state (WA) only pays 5.62% with no COLA. Just under 1% less but with a CPI COLA is a good deal. Note that I was just looking at a 65 year old male--not for a couple. No COLA adjustment in my...
by stlutz
Sun Aug 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does a "true" liability matching portfolio require 30 years of fixed income
Replies: 12
Views: 936

Re: Does a "true" liability matching portfolio require 30 years of fixed income

It depends on how precise you need to be. If you need exactly $10,000 each and every year (adjusted for inflation), then a 30 year ladder (or as close as you can get to one) is the way to go. There are alternatives if you can step away from absolute precision. What matters in the big picture is the ...
by stlutz
Sun Aug 27, 2017 4:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"
Replies: 119
Views: 13748

Re: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"

What is the payout percentage on an inflation adjusted fixed annuity at retirement?
For a 65-year old male in my state, 4.46%.