Search found 5069 matches

by stlutz
Mon Jun 17, 2019 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV tilt advocates, please suggest a percentage for me to use in a backtest
Replies: 24
Views: 823

Re: SCV tilt advocates, please suggest a percentage for me to use in a backtest

I want to compare a portfolio of 60% large-cap blend stocks 40% intermediate-term investment-grade bonds to a comparable portfolio with a reasonable small-cap value tilt. ... Please suggest some numbers. Not necessarily some optimum, but a good, workmanlike tilt, with enough heft for the hoped-for ...
by stlutz
Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 63
Views: 4164

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

I doubt that I have enough street cred, even on the forum, to influence the buying of Value stocks. If you would give a definitive buy signal, we could test that out! :P :P Okay, now that I have given the famous "These dangerous stunts you are watching should be performed only by highly trained pro...
by stlutz
Mon Jun 17, 2019 1:14 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Why not add a "like" button to Boglehead posts?
Replies: 185
Views: 27867

Re: A way to "thank" posts

Send an IM. A personal thank you means a lot more than a Facebook-style like.
by stlutz
Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 63
Views: 4164

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

nedsaid wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:27 pm
I doubt that I have enough street cred, even on the forum, to influence the buying of Value stocks.
If you would give a definitive buy signal, we could test that out! :P :P
by stlutz
Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 63
Views: 4164

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

For STLUTZ, wow, you don't see any difference when SG PEG is 84 vs 25? Those high ratios are reflection of low earnings/margins, not that smallcap stocks have been bid into the stratosphere. As such, the issue with with narrow profit margins. It doesn't take that much of a change in the profit marg...
by stlutz
Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 63
Views: 4164

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

And as one additional note to be clear, I am not of the view that the value trade is "overcrowded". I think that all of the research about a value return premium has helped the market price stocks more correctly such than value will not be "undercrowded" in a sustained, year-after-year fashion as it...
by stlutz
Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 63
Views: 4164

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

Returns over the past 5 years (Vanguard index funds) LG: 11.06% LV: 8.18% SG: 8.67% SV: 6.11% So, growth has been running ahead of value by a decent but not crazy margin (for 5 years). PE Ratio comparison (data from ETF.com): LG: 27.3 LV: 18.81 SG: 84.0 SV: 24.9 I'm not seeing a huge divergence here...
by stlutz
Sun Jun 16, 2019 12:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 63
Views: 4164

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

This market is nothing like the era of Pets.com. Remember 1998 when growth outperformed value by something like 30%? Growth has been running a little bit ahead of value of late. The current valuations of "value" may be more a reflection of the market's expectations of where profits are going. I alwa...
by stlutz
Sat Jun 15, 2019 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Legal review of a remodeling contract?
Replies: 6
Views: 468

Re: Legal review of a remodeling contract?

I'm getting mine done now--the contract language from the contractors I got bids from was pretty brief and fully intelligible by me. I opted not to go with my first choice of contractor because I found his language to be unacceptable.

Bottom line, you can most likely handle this yourself.
by stlutz
Sat Jun 15, 2019 5:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Health insurance cost containment company
Replies: 23
Views: 1696

Re: Health insurance cost containment company

This is one of the challenges with healthcare is that most of us when we get such things in the mail are dealing with them the first time. I took a tumble when hiking one time and needed some stitches. Needless to say, getting this form caught me by surprise. I filled it out and that was it. That at...
by stlutz
Sat Jun 15, 2019 5:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: how is Home Depot's contractor service (for a water heater)?
Replies: 46
Views: 3218

Re: how is Home Depot's contractor service (for a water heater)?

The thing I like about HD is they actually do pull the required permit so you do get an inspection of the work and the contractor has to fix any problems. Plumbers tend not to pull permits for this type of work.
by stlutz
Sat Jun 15, 2019 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7170

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

"Fair" doesn't really have anything to do with it. It is not rational to own a riskier asset if you don't think it will produce a higher return for your overall portfolio. If by, "in this conception," you mean, "I can create any world I wish, in my mind, and live within that world," of course peopl...
by stlutz
Sat Jun 15, 2019 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7170

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

Part of this is knowing who and what to trust. I trust John Bogle, Bill Bernstein, Larry Swedroe as being intellectually honest. Each have their opinions which doubtlessly affect the conclusions they draw from financial data but I know what they say is heartfelt. In other words they say what they r...
by stlutz
Sat Jun 15, 2019 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7170

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

HomerJ, skepticism is a good thing but taken to an extreme is non-productive. For example, one could doubt their own existence. We don't know the odds for the future. We can however look to the past for clues about what might happen in the future. Sort of a history doesn't repeat just rhymes type o...
by stlutz
Sat Jun 15, 2019 2:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Health insurance cost containment company
Replies: 23
Views: 1696

Re: Health insurance cost containment company

Are you/have you received reimbursement from somebody else who caused the accident? What is the background behind declining to provide the requested information?
by stlutz
Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Dollar Cost Averaging Result in a Tax Preparation Nightmare?
Replies: 23
Views: 2205

Re: Will Dollar Cost Averaging Result in a Tax Preparation Nightmare?

See this thread to see how Vanguard at least keeps track of someone investing every 2 weeks: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=179414 As others noted, it is NOT a problem at all to do this. And hourly DCA was addressed in this thread: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=...
by stlutz
Sun Jun 09, 2019 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Performance When Stocks Lose Value, 1928-2018
Replies: 7
Views: 1193

Re: Bond Performance When Stocks Lose Value, 1928-2018

Am I correct in counting that the score is 15-8 in terms of bonds going up (inflation adjusted) when stocks go down?
by stlutz
Sun Jun 09, 2019 5:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Deep out of Money Puts and LEAP Puts- What am I overlooking?
Replies: 29
Views: 2332

Re: Deep out of Money Puts and LEAP Puts- What am I overlooking?

Why I am interested in this? - In my mind it is a lottery ticket that may pay off if the market moves a certain way. What you're proposing isn't a lottery ticket. If you are otherwise long the stock market, then buying a put option on the same investment is a form of insurance to limit your potenti...
by stlutz
Sun Jun 09, 2019 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15361

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

... Ergo, for any given investor their highest risk-adjusted return will result from a portfolio which contains bonds having a duration that matches as closely as possible the investor's investment horizon. For a long-term investor that means long-term bonds. I think you're trying to have it both w...
by stlutz
Sun Jun 09, 2019 8:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Chase Southwest Airlines credit card
Replies: 10
Views: 1539

Re: Chase Southwest Airlines credit card

I had multiple "closed" SW cards in my account summary before I applied for the $149 card last year.
by stlutz
Sat Jun 08, 2019 9:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Suitability of multifactor in taxable
Replies: 12
Views: 677

Re: Suitability of multifactor in taxable

How does the new Vanguard multifactor ETF compare in taxable with something like VTI? I am intrigued and considering making a core holding. The fund/ETF should be fine in taxable as long as there aren't any changes on how ETFs have to manage the cost basis of their shares. However, the concern is p...
by stlutz
Sat Jun 08, 2019 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15361

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

Some of these recent threads talking about how well long-term bonds backtest are a little amusing to those of who who have been around here for 10+ years. It used to the be that the best backtesting showed that short-term bonds were advantageous over long-term bonds both from a standalone and from a...
by stlutz
Sat Jun 08, 2019 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15361

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

To make things simple, I usually recommend using US treasury funds for the bond allocation and just matching the duration of the fund to your investment horizon (which for a retirement portfolio can be roughly approximated as your life expectancy minus your age ). So . . . for most investors under ...
by stlutz
Sat Jun 08, 2019 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: indexers buying negative interest bonds
Replies: 26
Views: 2465

Re: indexers buying negative interest bonds

We've had a lot of threads of late about government bonds being negatively correlated to the stock market. If that has become a property of the investment and is not a temporary aberration, then arguably government bond yields *should* be negative. Should one realistically expect an asset that goes ...
by stlutz
Sat Jun 08, 2019 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15361

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

One context I often see ""bonds are for safety" employed is as justification for using short-term bonds (or even cash vehicles, like CDs or stable value funds) to derisk a portfolio, even when intermediate or long term bonds would not only derisk the portfolio even more while also improving its div...
by stlutz
Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15361

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

Few aphorisms are so blithely repeated as "bonds are for safety", and I've always wondered how such an illogical piece of advice came to become so commonly accepted. Some of the popularity that this "bonds are for safety" has to do with the weak grasp that many investors, even professional investor...
by stlutz
Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Re-Death of Value, or Deja Vu All Over
Replies: 61
Views: 5766

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Re-Death of Value, or Deja Vu All Over

Recent value underperformance is nothing like the late 90s. Actually value has done just fine. Historically value outperformance has been driven more by down markets than up markets, so some amount of underperformance during a major up market is not unexpected. This isn't a returns problem; it's an ...
by stlutz
Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Downsides of VPW?
Replies: 101
Views: 6772

Re: Downsides of VPW?

Open up the VPW spreadsheet, go to the "Backtesting" tab, and change C19 "Start Year" to 1966. Then look at I32, the inflation-adjusted withdrawal for the 10th year of retirement when you are 74 years old. It is $28,000. Then look at I48, the inflation-adjusted withdrawal for the 27th year of retir...
by stlutz
Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?
Replies: 112
Views: 8202

Re: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?

From Swedroe's "Winning Bond Book" Allocation to TIPS vs. short term fixed income Real Yield on TIPS Allocation to TIPS >3% 75 - 100% >2.5% <3% 50 - 75% >2% <2.5% 25 - 50% >1.5% <2% 0 - 25% <1.5% 0% This was published before '08 so maybe "things have changed" but if not, TIPS are expensive. This ne...
by stlutz
Sun Jun 02, 2019 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cutting The Cord
Replies: 24
Views: 2060

Re: Cutting The Cord

This is an excellent tool for finding which services have the channels you most want:


https://www.suppose.tv
by stlutz
Sat Jun 01, 2019 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17288

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

If there is overcrowding, in my opinion it is in the FAANG stocks. When you combine the Technology sector with the large Internet giants that lead the Communications sector, you have 25% of the S&P 500 in High Tech. That is an index that is pretty top-heavy with one area of the economy. Not sure ex...
by stlutz
Fri May 31, 2019 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Popularity: A Bridge Between Classical and Behavioral Finance
Replies: 16
Views: 1191

Re: Popularity: A Bridge Between Classical and Behavioral Finance

Thanks for sharing the link and the paper! I'm just getting started so I probably won't have any comments for a while. I am quite interested as I was actually just complaining the other day that there really isn't any unifying theoretical framework to support the growth in the number of "factors", s...
by stlutz
Wed May 29, 2019 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are people buying VTI today or waiting for a bigger drop in June
Replies: 30
Views: 3552

Re: Are people buying VTI today or waiting for a bigger drop in June

"Sell in May and go away.". I'd wait until later in the year. :P
by stlutz
Tue May 28, 2019 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees
Replies: 176
Views: 11761

Re: Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees

So I priced out a nominal and an inflation-adjusted annuity for a 65 year old couple. The nominal annuity has a payout rate of 5.57%; the real annuity has a payout rate of 3.71%. Suppose that inflation was 4% per year. Also suppose that the couple spends at the 3.71% rate. For the nominal annuity, t...
by stlutz
Tue May 28, 2019 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17288

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

Perhaps it would be worth discussing some of the papers that Swedroe summarizes in greater detail? Just a suggestion for how to move onto something that is a little bit new?

FWIW.
by stlutz
Mon May 27, 2019 2:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I replace Prius Hybrid Battery?
Replies: 44
Views: 3536

Re: Should I replace Prius Hybrid Battery?

The car will not run w/o a working battery. It would also be woefully underpowered even if it did. Then how would you describe a Prius with a working battery? :shock: Can't wait to get rid of ours... \ :D :D I've never owned an over-powered car (before the Prius came along I had only driven Corolla...
by stlutz
Mon May 27, 2019 2:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: MTUM momentum ETF article
Replies: 13
Views: 1182

Re: MTUM momentum ETF article

Just to clarify for people reading the thread, the index that MTUM follows seeks to net out volatility from its momentum screen. So, suppose for a given period the market is up 10%. XYZ Corp has a beta of 2. It is up 15%. It would be considered a low momentum stock because with that beta it should h...
by stlutz
Sun May 26, 2019 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much Diversification is Enough?
Replies: 24
Views: 2424

Re: How Much Diversification is Enough?

In the low-inflation regime we have today, when central banks around the world are strongly focused on inflation targeting, it may be that high-quality bonds are the only diversification one needs to offset stock risk in the portfolio. If concerned about unexpected future inflation and a shift towa...
by stlutz
Sun May 26, 2019 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here
Replies: 151
Views: 14645

Re: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here

The OP, rather than communicating a personal low shallow risk tolerance, takes the position that "people" (what group is that exactly?) aren't prepared for a bear market with what he feels are "too high" equity positions which apparently includes 60/40 per above. But apparently he does - which has ...
by stlutz
Sat May 25, 2019 10:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ILSIX Swedroe
Replies: 5
Views: 545

Re: ILSIX Swedroe

At least in the past Swedroe had indicated that he wasn't a fan of Catastrophe Bonds as the risks were too concentrated and the likely returns too low. That looks like what ILSIX mostly holds. Because SRRIX is an interval fund where you can't sell when you want, it can access less liquid securities ...
by stlutz
Sat May 25, 2019 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three assets all with negative correlations?
Replies: 18
Views: 1523

Re: Three assets all with negative correlations?

IRL, the best additional asset I could come up with was UUP, the US Dollar Bullish fund. It has had negative correlation with stocks and 0 correlation with EDV.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/ass ... ingDays=60
by stlutz
Sat May 25, 2019 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Factors Are For Holding
Replies: 26
Views: 2002

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factors Are For Holding

Who has tied together value, low vol, quality, momentum, and moving-average market timing into a unified understanding of how markets work and why? You mean who besides Robert Lucas, Eugene Fama, Douglas Breeden, Paul Kaplan, Steven Satchell, Peter Fishburn, Benoit Mandelbrot, Robert Shiller, Hal F...
by stlutz
Fri May 24, 2019 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Factors Are For Holding
Replies: 26
Views: 2002

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factors Are For Holding

That's an easy claim to make and an impossible one to prove, so therefore of dubious utility in this discussion. It's an easy claim to disprove with an example. :D Who has tied together value, low vol, quality, momentum, and moving-average market timing into a unified understanding of how markets w...
by stlutz
Fri May 24, 2019 11:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Longevity Risk Management
Replies: 5
Views: 639

Re: Longevity Risk Management

I would actually start by reading some of the excellent threads that poster "bobcat2" has started on this forum over the years. Besides being super-informative on their own, they'll provide directions for further reading if you see something particularly interesting. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum...
by stlutz
Fri May 24, 2019 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does regulation matter to markets?
Replies: 6
Views: 550

Re: Does regulation matter to markets?

I believe the position taken by many here is that those words are completely irrelevant. Not only does timely access to information not matter at all, but investors simply do not need anything from their respective governments. Regulation simply does not matter is the argument. No matter what, no m...
by stlutz
Fri May 24, 2019 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Factors Are For Holding
Replies: 26
Views: 2002

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factors Are For Holding

In 70s-80s, academic research proved a single factor model can't explain the cross section of average returns. These are known as anomalies. Starting in 90's, the academia introduced multi-factor models to reconcile the anomalies. The factor investing is derived from these asset pricing models rath...
by stlutz
Fri May 24, 2019 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who killed value?
Replies: 23
Views: 2549

Re: Who killed value?

Couple of thoughts: a) In backtesting, the value premium has been quite a bit larger in down markets than up markets. If the pattern holds, value may look better if we have a sustained downturn. b) In my investing lifetime, we've had a significant period where growth outperformed, a significant one ...
by stlutz
Fri May 24, 2019 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Factors Are For Holding
Replies: 26
Views: 2002

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factors Are For Holding

We've talked before that active/passive is a continuum and not a hard division. Swedroe tends to see a very stark difference between these two approaches: a) The investor who makes qualitative judgements about what asset classes to buy and sell ("market timing") and then which securities to buy ("st...