Search found 4281 matches

by stlutz
Fri Apr 20, 2018 2:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Merrill Edge "Money Account" Question
Replies: 8
Views: 777

Re: Merrill Edge "Money Account" Question

The "money account" is also known as a sweep account. At ME, they have a collection of banks that they deposit your cash with so the that money is FDIC insured. If the money hasn't yet been deposited by them, it will simply be shown as a "cash balance". I don't actually have an account with them, bu...
by stlutz
Fri Apr 20, 2018 2:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question on discount and premium treasury bonds
Replies: 3
Views: 384

Re: Question on discount and premium treasury bonds

The default way it would work is: If you buy a bond with a par value of $100 for $105: Each year you amortize a part of that premium and you subtract that from the coupon payments. So (roughly) if this was 5 year bond with a coupon of 2%, you'd get $2 in interest and have $1 in "ABP adjustment" and ...
by stlutz
Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying T-bills ..help needed
Replies: 8
Views: 869

Re: Buying T-bills ..help needed

Are you focused solely on T-bills (i.e. short term instruments maturing in 1 year or less) or are you talking about Treasury debt in general--bill, notes, and bonds?
by stlutz
Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire at age 40?
Replies: 129
Views: 10839

Re: Can I retire at age 40?

Nothing substantive to add. I would just suggest that your motto should be, "I can do anything, but I can't do nothing."
by stlutz
Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 121
Views: 15614

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

Actually I thought settlement is T+1 for bonds and CDs.
T+1 for Treasuries; T+2 for everything else.
by stlutz
Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Firstrade Makes a Splash With 700 Commission-Free ETFs (Including Vanguard!)
Replies: 12
Views: 1508

Re: Firstrade Makes a Splash With 700 Commission-Free ETFs (Including Vanguard!)

They need more than free trades to stay in business.
Reminds me of one of my favorite-ever fake SNL commercials: http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/ ... 9703?snl=1

"People ask us how we make money. The answer is: Volume!" :D
by stlutz
Sat Apr 14, 2018 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 113
Views: 9711

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

it doesn't look like 4% will work for 75/25 S&P500/FI portfolio if one starts in 2000 Playing around with data from the Simba/siamond spreadsheet--the use of corporate bonds for fixed income as opposed to total bond or treasuries does hurt this portfolio more than I would have expected. Of course, ...
by stlutz
Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 153
Views: 8269

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

Well yeah if you start at the beginning of a 20 year bear market in 60s and the top of a 13 year secular bear in 2000, you are not going to get representative numbers. If you're comparing to today, they are very representative numbers. That's not to say that we are at a market peak and that there w...
by stlutz
Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dumping my LT Treasury Index Fund FLBAX
Replies: 4
Views: 436

Re: Dumping my LT Treasury Index Fund FLBAX

After reading up some more today, it just hit me that a long term bond fund (FLBAX) has performed well since the late 70's BECAUSE interest rates have been on a steady decline. Actually, no. Your returns would have been much higher had rates stayed at their heights in 1981. That said, there is sign...
by stlutz
Tue Apr 10, 2018 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don't Use the 200-Day Moving Average as a Sell Signal" - Ben Carlson
Replies: 35
Views: 2392

Re: "Don't Use the 200-Day Moving Average as a Sell Signal" - Ben Carlson

willthrill--curiosity question: Do you basically switch between 100% equities and 0% equities based on the market trend or are your changes more muted (e.g. switching between 75/25 and 25/75 or something like that)? From what I've read, trend following strategies actually do backtest fairly well. An...
by stlutz
Mon Apr 09, 2018 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 14762

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

Dave/lack_ey: Thanks for the links. Will check them out over the next couple of days.
by stlutz
Mon Apr 09, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 14762

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

stlutz / Random Walker, Putting all discussion of validity of risk premia aside, would you guys invest in these funds with the liquidity risks as documented in the prospectus that I posted above? For me (and I think for many), that would be a deal breaker regardless of how robust or large the premi...
by stlutz
Mon Apr 09, 2018 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 14762

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

I got to wondering today, are any other financial writers recommending the products in question? These discussions tend to get sidetracked on the question of whether Larry Swedroe is a swell guy or not. Honestly, when I'm investing, I couldn't care less one way or the other. Perhaps it might benefit...
by stlutz
Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 121
Views: 15614

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

I believe Alliant Credit Union also does not require funds from a maturing CD to go to a new CD by default.
by stlutz
Sun Apr 08, 2018 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 2-yr treasury ladder with 6-month rungs
Replies: 13
Views: 1198

Re: 2-yr treasury ladder with 6-month rungs

A few thoughts: --Using CDs would probably work better in the auto-roll program as new ones are available every week. --Now that we are off of 0% short-term rates, you might actually want to run the numbers on how much being in a money market fund for a couple of weeks (or even a month) every two ye...
by stlutz
Sun Apr 08, 2018 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 14762

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

I have to come to Taylor's defense here.
Just to clarify, I quoted nisiprius' quote of Swedroe's statement regarding US equity returns. Wasn't commenting on Taylor's listing of Total Bond returns at all. :sharebeer
by stlutz
Sun Apr 08, 2018 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 2-yr treasury ladder with 6-month rungs
Replies: 13
Views: 1198

Re: 2-yr treasury ladder with 6-month rungs

I would ask Fidelity for specifics on how their auto-roll program works with these securities. I'd actually be a little bit curious what they say. There are a lot of dates that make it confusing. Let's take the 2 year auction from February: Announcement Date: 2/15/18 Auction Date: 2/21/18 Settlement...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Plots of stock market and Treasury bond relationship over time [Not quite so quick anymore]
Replies: 13
Views: 1352

Re: Quick plots of stock market and Treasury bond relationship over time

Maybe a 5 year treasury minus the inflation rate? (since the bond funds I invest in generally have about a 5 year average maturity.
by stlutz
Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Plots of stock market and Treasury bond relationship over time [Not quite so quick anymore]
Replies: 13
Views: 1352

Re: Quick plots of stock market and Treasury bond relationship over time

lack_ey (or siamond for that matter): If you have the information available to do so, would you be willing/able to test out a result I think I arrived at one time by looking at some of this data? One conclusion I had come to was that stock/bond correlations have been higher during periods of higher ...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value premium harvestable?
Replies: 39
Views: 2278

Re: Value premium harvestable?

I would offer a bit of a corrective to the overall tenor of the discussion. There has not been value underperformance when comparing VIVAX vs. VIGRX: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2018&lastMonth=12&endDate=04%2F07%2F2018&i...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 14762

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

Let me first state that there are no magic bullets that can bring expected returns up to the levels achieved over the prior 36 years. Why the selection of "36" years? If one is just picking a number at random, I can see picking 25 or 50 or something like that, but 36? Obviously the reason to choose...
by stlutz
Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value premium harvestable?
Replies: 39
Views: 2278

Re: Value premium harvestable?

The reasoning, as I understand it, is that value companies tend to have much higher debt levels than growth companies — and thus benefit more from high inflation, due to the lower real costs of their debt. So it's possible the value premium has been arbitraged away — but it's also possible that it'...
by stlutz
Fri Apr 06, 2018 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 118
Views: 17112

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

I can't read this thread without thinking about Keynes' essay, "Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren".

http://www.econ.yale.edu/smith/econ116a/keynes1.pdf
by stlutz
Fri Apr 06, 2018 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corruption vs. Country Stock Returns, 1997-2016
Replies: 17
Views: 1646

Re: Corruption vs. Country Stock Returns, 1997-2016

If there isn't a "corruption premium", then one could argue that it makes more sense to exclude the more corrupt markets, or just make it easy and skip emerging markets altogether. Why take extra risk if you can't expect to be rewarded for doing so? Out of curiosity, are the returns you are showing ...
by stlutz
Fri Apr 06, 2018 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 14762

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

I think it's relevant to consider the scenarios where a standard 60/40 portfolio doesn't do that well, because the reality is that real interest rates aren't really that low by historical measures and stock valuations are "high" most of the time. The biggest worry I think we have on this board is th...
by stlutz
Fri Apr 06, 2018 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 14762

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

For someone who holds a 60/40 portfolio (like me), the starting point for the 60% equity portion is simply to hold a market-cap weighted portion of all companies in all lines of business in all countries in the world. For most folks here, that is a very reasonable starting, and possibly ending point...
by stlutz
Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 14762

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

It may be worth noting that the Stone Ridge funds charge more than 2%
nisi: In fairness, in an earlier discussion Swedroe argued that the "real" expense ratio for LENDX is only 2%. Link: viewtopic.php?t=204480#p3136718
by stlutz
Thu Apr 05, 2018 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 121
Views: 15614

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

Yeah, I haven't seen anything all that attractive in brokered CDs lately relative to treasuries. In the past I've been able to get more substantial yield premiums that I can now.
by stlutz
Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rate risk of VG intermediate munis vs muni index
Replies: 5
Views: 488

Re: Interest rate risk of VG intermediate munis vs muni index

The difference in interest rate risk is bigger than that duration difference might lead to you to expect. You might want to check out this article about what happened to the intermediate and long-term muni funds back in 2013 when there was a fairly significant runup in rates: https://thefinancebuff....
by stlutz
Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: In-Kind transfer to Fidelity
Replies: 12
Views: 1147

Re: In-Kind transfer to Fidelity

Thanks for sharing--always good to hear positive stories about service from financial firms!
by stlutz
Sat Mar 31, 2018 12:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bonds and WSJ article.
Replies: 12
Views: 1479

Re: Muni bonds and WSJ article.

A few thoughts: --Bond rating agencies have a very good record with regard to their ratings of municipal issuers. Obviously the agencies has a major screw up with their ratings of mortgage backed securities in the 2000s. That doesn't negate the fact that their record with other types of bonds has be...
by stlutz
Sat Mar 31, 2018 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning
Replies: 114
Views: 7488

Re: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning

grok: A belated thank you for your reply to my scenario. I was curious to what degree you would suggest annuitization.
by stlutz
Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will I lose VG bond fund distribution if selling before end-of-month?
Replies: 8
Views: 811

Re: Will I loose VG bond fund distribution if selling before end-of-month?

The "Fund Distributions" section for VFSUX states this: Each Fund distributes to shareholders virtually all of its net income (interest less expenses) as well as any net short-term or long-term capital gains realized from the sale of its holdings. Each Fund’s income dividends generally are declared ...
by stlutz
Thu Mar 29, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brokered CDs
Replies: 17
Views: 1947

Re: Brokered CDs

Also a good part of the pool of money buying brokered CDs are doing it in amounts that far exceed FDIC coverage limits. For example, Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund. For them, they are essentially buying a corporate bond. They have to watch their credit risk very closely. The ones that pay higher y...
by stlutz
Thu Mar 29, 2018 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will I lose VG bond fund distribution if selling before end-of-month?
Replies: 8
Views: 811

Re: Will I loose VG bond fund distribution if selling before end-of-month?

It depends on the fund. If the fund accrues dividends daily and pays them monthly, you will get a partial distribution if you sell before the end of the month. These funds NAV does not decline when the income distribution is paid at the end of the month. Other funds simply have a single dividend dat...
by stlutz
Wed Mar 28, 2018 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Exit / Bonus Farming plan... what can go wrong?
Replies: 34
Views: 2792

Re: Vanguard Exit / Bonus Farming plan... what can go wrong?

If I felt this way about my broker, the last thing I would do is keep my money with them. I'm solely thinking about what works for me and my money at this time. I don't really care whether or not my decisions are good or bad for Vanguard Marketing Corporation. Everything I own at Vanguard I want to...
by stlutz
Wed Mar 28, 2018 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Duffel >62 linear inches but won't be full...oversize fee?
Replies: 11
Views: 949

Re: Duffel >62 linear inches but won't be full...oversize fee?

What airline are you flying? Some are much more aggressive at going after extra fee income than others. I travel regularly on SW with a bicycle that breaks down and packs into a case that is exactly 62 linear inches in size. It's never been questioned or even measured. However, I'm sure that is part...
by stlutz
Wed Mar 28, 2018 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Exit / Bonus Farming plan... what can go wrong?
Replies: 34
Views: 2792

Re: Vanguard Exit / Bonus Farming plan... what can go wrong?

I would ask "why" on this. Based on my own experience and many threads on this forum, Vanguard is somewhat challenged in the cost-basis department. So yes, if you do the conversion it is possible (though not likely) that your cost basis will get messed up. If you sell losing lots, it's also possible...
by stlutz
Wed Mar 28, 2018 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning
Replies: 114
Views: 7488

Re: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning

For me though its often useful to start with a specific example or “story” and then see what useful generalities might emerge out of it. Did Either of you ever see “Out of Africa” with Meryl Streep and Robert Redford? This is one of my favorite scenes...she tells a story but asks someone to give he...
by stlutz
Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to (another brokerage): admiral index funds
Replies: 17
Views: 1388

Re: Vanguard to (another brokerage): admiral index funds

Are there other brokerage places that allow commission free trades for VG admiral funds?
No.

There are some (Schwab is one) where you can transfer existing shares in and hold them but you cannot buy additional shares.

If you don't want to do ETFs, Vanguard really is the best answer.
by stlutz
Tue Mar 27, 2018 9:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question about ACA Subsidy
Replies: 20
Views: 1817

Re: Question about ACA Subsidy

For 2019 at least, the other option to consider would be to do COBRA on your wife's current plan. It almost certainly won't be the cheapest, but it is an option to consider.
by stlutz
Tue Mar 27, 2018 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning
Replies: 114
Views: 7488

Re: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning

so again the key info needed is: 1) Current salary 2) current age 3) estimated social security at 65 4) size of current total investments, 401k, taxable etc. doesn't have to be the exact actual numbers... I wasn't asking a numbers based question as much as I was interested in how you would approach...
by stlutz
Tue Mar 27, 2018 8:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New York Balance Billing for Out of Network Providers
Replies: 19
Views: 1663

Re: New York Balance Billing for Out of Network Providers

How big of a company do you work for? Does your company have a self-funded health plan? If so, your plan is governed by ERISA and not by New York state law.
by stlutz
Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning
Replies: 114
Views: 7488

Re: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning

Grok: Can I propose more of a challenge for you? Somebody who has $1M at age 65 can do the mental arithmetic any number of ways but still be able to fund a quite comfortable lifestyle for the duration of their retirement. Someone who retires with $300K is still well above average in terms of savings...
by stlutz
Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?
Replies: 11
Views: 3272

Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

I'm always interested in how people's thinking evolves over time, so: What is one piece of advice that you've given in the past that you no longer agree with? Why did you change your mind? To narrow the question a bit, please focus on Boglehead-ish advice as opposed to advice you might have given wh...
by stlutz
Mon Mar 26, 2018 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Funds Direct Access w/o Advisor ? John Hancock
Replies: 15
Views: 1969

Re: DFA Funds Direct Access w/o Advisor ? John Hancock

If you look at a Morningstar style box on their ETFs, there is really no value tilt at all to them. The indexes may be designed by DFA, but that does not make them the same as DFA mutual funds. I agree with others that there are cheaper/better ways to get a value tilt than by using DFA funds with th...
by stlutz
Sat Mar 24, 2018 12:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Smart Beta's Foundation Problem"
Replies: 31
Views: 2929

Re: "Smart Beta's Foundation Problem"

Thanks all for the thoughtful (and educational) comments thus far. Some additional reflections of my own: One problem I see in academic finance literature is an unwillingness to explicitly address problems in past research. It doesn't mean the past research was bad; it just means it could be improve...
by stlutz
Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Smart Beta's Foundation Problem"
Replies: 31
Views: 2929

Re: "Smart Beta is Making This Strategist Sick"

Can you consolidate this into one of the other 1000 smart beta threads?
I might suggest consolidating into this ongoing thread on a set of articles by the same writer (including this one). ;)

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=244931&newpost=3844749
by stlutz
Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Smart Beta's Foundation Problem"
Replies: 31
Views: 2929

"Smart Beta's Foundation Problem"

Over the past week, ETF.com has been highlighting Richard Wiggins' criticisms of quantitative backtesting. He has two major critiques: a) "P-hacking", where you have your computer run thousands of simulations and you report the ones that worked the best as good results. b) "HARKing", or coming up wi...
by stlutz
Mon Mar 19, 2018 8:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cycling in the French Alps and Pyrenees
Replies: 2
Views: 418

Re: Cycling in the French Alps and Pyrenees

I love, love, love the Pyrenees. Those mountains are just so much different from anything you'll see in the US. Also, that area caters to cyclo tourists more than anywhere I've been in Europe. Towns I've stayed in for extended periods are Argeles-Gazost and Saint Lary Soulon. I've never used a tour ...