Search found 5524 matches

by stlutz
Sat Jun 13, 2020 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Big Difference in TIPS fund returns: SCHP vs VAIPX
Replies: 20
Views: 1632

Re: Big Difference in TIPS fund returns: SCHP vs VAIPX

Returns on the etf.com site are through the latest day; the returns on the Vanguard site are as of 5/31.

I would use the Schwab site to get their returns as of 5/31: https://www.schwabfunds.com/products/schp
by stlutz
Sun May 31, 2020 10:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fold Flat Seats in a 2019/2020 car
Replies: 41
Views: 2579

Re: Fold Flat Seats in a 2019/2020 car

Are you looking for something that you can make work or something where you can just pull off the road, grab a pillow/blanket, and go to sleep? If it's the later, I agree with "van". With most of the fold-down seat options, you'll need something to deal with the the transition between cargo area and...
by stlutz
Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unemployment vs. work at Amazon warehouse/CA
Replies: 84
Views: 5904

Re: Unemployment vs. work at Amazon warehouse/CA

What is the likelihood that she gets rehired to her old job next school year?
by stlutz
Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow Futures Up Again?
Replies: 131
Views: 8219

Re: Dow Futures Up Again?

Virus numbers ticked positive in most of Europe and in NY.
by stlutz
Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: where to go for fixed income advice?
Replies: 19
Views: 1267

Re: where to go for fixed income advice?

Right now CDs are the best bet in fixed income in terms of yield for risk taken. That's not always the case, but it is right now. Make sure you say within FDIC limits at a given bank.
by stlutz
Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 38010

Re: Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession

I agree with about 2000. There going to be a lot of unexpectedly bad news to come yet (even if the overall trajectory ends up being on the positive side).
by stlutz
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts
Replies: 24
Views: 2107

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

From what I've seen from individual states I think the total will be approaching 5m.
by stlutz
Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?
Replies: 98
Views: 6394

Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

I agree with those who say 2030.
by stlutz
Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: have cash/dry powder- what to invest in?
Replies: 32
Views: 3099

Re: have cash/dry powder- what to invest in?

With helicopter money and debt monetization being the theme of the day, TIPS and gold.

This calamity is heading into Great Depression territory. Stocks didn't bottom for 3 more years back then.

You can be patient, IMO.

Disclosure: My market timing record isn't the best.
by stlutz
Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Take out food vs COVID 19
Replies: 95
Views: 6638

Re: Take out food vs COVID 19

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... ly/608008/

[Article from the Atlantic about ordering in or cooking during the pandemic. Moderator Misenplace]
by stlutz
Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on [earnings]
Replies: 117
Views: 9657

Re: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on [earnings]

Ultimately people and and businesses large and small will get a bailout in some from. The opening bids are already in at $1T. And the government can borrow for 30 years at 1% to pay for it. Debt service for student loans have already been postponed. Same will likely happen for bunches of other types...
by stlutz
Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Switch from AGG to BND
Replies: 6
Views: 384

Re: Switch from AGG to BND

AGG holds 7635 bonds. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239458/ishares-core-total-us-bond-market-etf BND holds 9183. https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/BND AGG does have a somewhat higher weight toward Treasury securities than does BND as they follow slightly different indexes. I would not ...
by stlutz
Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hotels still expensive but flights cheap?
Replies: 16
Views: 1488

Re: Hotels still expensive but flights cheap?

veggivet wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:20 pm
Once hotels drop rates, they find it very difficult to get customers back up to the previous rates. Many would rather have an empty room than a heavily discounted room.
Exactly. 1 room at $200 is better than 2 at $100.
by stlutz
Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?
Replies: 232
Views: 24140

Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

The UK not being a Schengen country probably matters too.
by stlutz
Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question on VTEB
Replies: 6
Views: 600

Re: Question on VTEB

Yes, VTEB is an excellent choice for a national municipal fund.
by stlutz
Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corona Virus = Black Swan, Book Recommendation
Replies: 127
Views: 8329

Re: Corona Virus = Black Swan, Book Recommendation

My own view is that the market drop of the past week is just getting things back to a more defensible valuation level absent any significant dislocation due to the virus. Corrections happen fast nowadays. A sustained 2000-2002 or 1973-1974 style bear market where things just drag lower week after we...
by stlutz
Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corona Virus = Black Swan, Book Recommendation
Replies: 127
Views: 8329

Re: Corona Virus = Black Swan, Book Recommendation

To be a Black Swan, as per Taleeb, it must: 1) Be essentially inconceivable because nothing like it has ever happened before. 2) Have an extreme effect. 3) Humans will look back on it and rationalize how obvious it was that it occurred (narrative fallacy). World War 1 and the GFC are examples of Bl...
by stlutz
Sat Feb 29, 2020 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimum volatility fund this week
Replies: 54
Views: 3364

Re: Minimum volatility fund this week

Over time the reported beta of USMV has fluctuated around between .65 and .85. It's never been anywhere close to .5.

Low vol funds are not bonds and are not bond proxies. They are stocks that overall aren't as volatile as the rest of the market.
by stlutz
Wed Feb 19, 2020 10:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Privacy Concerns
Replies: 19
Views: 2479

Re: Fidelity Privacy Concerns

...when I log onto my account the advisor I met with is now being shown as my advisor. I would clarify with them what this means. The normal definition of an investment advisor is that they are doing transactions for you. If you don't want this, I would call them and clear that up. Otherwise, the o...
by stlutz
Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does VT include commodities and gold mines?
Replies: 7
Views: 634

Re: Does VT include commodities and gold mines?

Yes. But not enough that you would notice if they didn't
by stlutz
Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any downside to multiple brokerage accounts at Fidelity?
Replies: 16
Views: 706

Re: Any downside to multiple brokerage accounts at Fidelity?

It is an easy mistake to place a trade on the wrong account. But once you have a few accounts I don't know that two more is actually worse.
by stlutz
Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does DAF need to be at same brokerage as taxable?
Replies: 16
Views: 841

Re: Does DAF need to be at same brokerage as taxable?

When a brokerage has a transfer-out fee, does one get dinged for that when giving to a DAF at another brokerage? I think that is the scenario that the OP is considering.
by stlutz
Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: FIRED!! [Unexpectedly laid off]
Replies: 59
Views: 12848

Re: FIRED!!

Is $32K really what your *total* expenses are? I mean everything that left your bank account over the past few years? The reason I ask is that it can be easy to have low expenses for a year, but then you start thinking that your car will wear out at some point, you'll need a new furnace/roof/carpets...
by stlutz
Mon Feb 03, 2020 8:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Current Environment - Short-Term High Yield vs. Total Bond vs. LT Corp Bond?
Replies: 17
Views: 1549

Re: Current Environment - Short-Term High Yield vs. Total Bond vs. LT Corp Bond?

Long-Term rates are too low vs. a reasonable expectation of future inflation. Could you explain a little further on future inflation? The 5 year break even inflation rate isn't high: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIE The 30 year treasury yields 2.01% right now. Given that the Fed targets 2% ...
by stlutz
Sun Feb 02, 2020 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value Premium - New FF paper
Replies: 264
Views: 14935

Re: The Value Premium - New FF paper

Thanks for your post. Would you say new investors in their 20s are able to take the risk and tilt to SCV and see how it plays out in the next 30 years? My advice to you is don't take advice from people in this forum. You need to really read about different investing strategies and come to conclusio...
by stlutz
Sun Feb 02, 2020 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast
Replies: 137
Views: 10075

Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Excellent podcast Rick! And thanks to Paul M. for taking the time. That was the most interesting & enjoyable one thus far for me. :sharebeer
by stlutz
Sun Feb 02, 2020 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast
Replies: 137
Views: 10075

Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Larry Swedroe is gone for good. Now Paul Merriman is getting the same treatment and disrespect here and it was a big mistake for him to agree to the podcast. Rick Ferri has done a great job with these podcasts but the endless trolling is undoing the good Rick is trying to do. This has gone beyond d...
by stlutz
Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Current Environment - Short-Term High Yield vs. Total Bond vs. LT Corp Bond?
Replies: 17
Views: 1549

Re: Current Environment - Short-Term High Yield vs. Total Bond vs. LT Corp Bond?

If I was going to market time these funds, I would say now is about the worst time to buy either one. Long-Term rates are too low vs. a reasonable expectation of future inflation. Junk credit spreads are very small and we are late in the economic cycle. So how is either one of these attractive? Disc...
by stlutz
Fri Jan 31, 2020 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ESG outperforming - will you add any ESG funds to your portfolio?
Replies: 63
Views: 3928

Re: ESG outperforming - will you add any ESG funds to your portfolio?

And BTW, thanks to the OP for starting the thread. ESG is as hot of a topic now as factor investing was 2 or 3 years ago, so it's good to see more discussions about it on Bogleheads.
by stlutz
Fri Jan 31, 2020 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ESG outperforming - will you add any ESG funds to your portfolio?
Replies: 63
Views: 3928

Re: ESG outperforming - will you add any ESG funds to your portfolio?

I think one of the unique things about ESG is that it is focused on long-term performance. The types of things they are looking for don't necessarily impact short-term results. A company that pollutes a lot may do just fine for a good long while. Eventually they will find themselves in trouble. If t...
by stlutz
Fri Jan 31, 2020 8:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else see Jan Fed withholding shrink?
Replies: 8
Views: 1026

Re: Anyone else see Jan Fed withholding shrink?

Actually, mine went up by a small amount.
by stlutz
Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munis vs Swensen-style Treasuries in taxable account?
Replies: 14
Views: 1085

Re: Munis vs Swensen-style Treasuries in taxable account?

It would be absurd to say, "Stocks are risky, therefore one should not invest in stocks". This also applies to call features. Call risk is a real risk. One should expect to be compensated for it. Credit risk is also a real risk that one should be compensated for. One time I considered one example of...
by stlutz
Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau
Replies: 179
Views: 14951

Re: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau

In my opinion these discussion are problematic because they attempt to take what is risky (investing in stocks) and make it "safe." You can't. At today's zero rates on TIPS, the SWR on a 30 year TIPS ladder or on an annuity with a 3% COLA (CPI annuities are no longer available) gives a true "Safe" W...
by stlutz
Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How does someone know whether they would enjoy being a manager?
Replies: 59
Views: 4287

Re: How does someone know whether they would enjoy being a manager?

Recently made an internal transfer within my company to a new position. Old position was (what I once thought) my DREAM job. After a couple of years, I was asked whether I really wanted to keep doing it forever. Was told by a couple different folks in management that "You can stay in your current p...
by stlutz
Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did lifecycle retirement funds kill small cap value premium?
Replies: 17
Views: 1583

Re: Did lifecycle retirement funds kill small cap value premium?

I don't think lifecycle funds matter one way or the other. Most of them invest in the total market pretty much in line with market cap. That means they are *not* focusing on large caps. It means they are putting 90% of their equity money in 90% of the market. Total market investors are opting not to...
by stlutz
Wed Jan 29, 2020 11:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I know we dont buy individual stocks....
Replies: 31
Views: 3133

Re: I know we dont buy individual stocks....

rbaldini wrote:
Wed Jan 29, 2020 6:18 pm
I feel like 90% of the time, the reason given by an amateur investor (of which I am one) for "why I'm buying this stock" is either "because it has gone up" or "because it has gone down". I don't buy individual stock.
I prefer to stick to the ones that are going to go up. :moneybag
by stlutz
Wed Jan 29, 2020 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity business model. I don’t understand.
Replies: 82
Views: 8671

Re: Fidelity business model. I don’t understand.

I imagine most BH that use Fidelity are very low value to Fidelity Actually, maybe not. Brokers make money of of uninvested cash. All of the people who use Fidelity as their bank here have money in FIdelity money market funds--and Bogleheds generally have more money in their checking accounts than ...
by stlutz
Wed Jan 29, 2020 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Prefer Dividends Over Stock Buybacks
Replies: 41
Views: 3550

Re: I Prefer Dividends Over Stock Buybacks

It's worth keeping in mind as well that the primary reason for buybacks over dividends is that buybacks increase the value of options granted to management. So, a good chunk of the value of the buyback is transferred to management and directors.
by stlutz
Mon Jan 27, 2020 10:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Not allowed to board American Airlines flight - Forced to buy second ticket for same flight - Help requested [UPDATED]
Replies: 125
Views: 16204

Re: Not allowed to board American Airlines flight - Forced to buy second ticket for same flight - Help requested

Did you get frequent-flyer miles for the cash ticket that you purchased? If not, I have a hypothesis: Because your identity was stolen, there may be conflicting information in databases about your date of birth and/or other key identifying information. Purchasing with a credit card or with FF miles ...
by stlutz
Mon Jan 27, 2020 9:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: FISVX: Fidelity Small Cap Value Index Fund
Replies: 26
Views: 1981

Re: FISVX

My point is that a trader could have correctly guessed that this stock would be added to the index, and they would have still lost a ton of money. Almost all the stocks added to the index in 2019 were like this. Frontrunning concerns seem way overblown to me. It may have once been a thing, but like...
by stlutz
Sun Jan 26, 2020 10:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: De Minimis Tax Reporting Statement
Replies: 10
Views: 740

Re: De Minimis Tax Reporting Statement

I posed the question trying to understand why Fidelity didn't just include the $7.67 on my main 1099 statement with all my other accounts. Seemed strange to send out an entire new 1099 for the unreported amount. Anyway, thanks for the replies! I've wondered that myself. Could I suggest that you PM ...
by stlutz
Sun Jan 26, 2020 10:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: FISVX: Fidelity Small Cap Value Index Fund
Replies: 26
Views: 1981

Re: FISVX

FISVX tracks the Russell 2000 Value index. It would be a cheaper version of the IWN ETF. The one issue is that the Russell 2000 does have some issues with front-running the index, which hurts the performance of the index overall. The issues aren't a big as they once were, but I think it's generally ...
by stlutz
Sun Jan 26, 2020 10:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much do I need to retire early?
Replies: 99
Views: 11748

Re: How much do I need to retire early?

What does "retire" actually mean to you? Most business owners I know who work/have worked a lot don't really adjust that well to doing nothing income-generating. It may be that you need to sell your business and then figure out what the next chapter holds career-wise for you. My bet is that if you d...
by stlutz
Sun Jan 26, 2020 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do new issue bonds trade above par?
Replies: 7
Views: 546

Re: Why do new issue bonds trade above par?

Can someone please explain why new issue munis trade above par with a 5% coupon? It seems like most munis are currently issued with a 5% coupon and trade above par with about a 1-3% yield. At issue, where does the premium go? Why can’t the municipality offer lower coupons and the bonds trade closer...
by stlutz
Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Schwab's growth threaten Vanguard's domination (article)
Replies: 100
Views: 5514

Re: Does Schwab's growth threaten Vanguard's domination (article)

Would like to see Schwab grow as an asset manager. Need more competitions vs BlackRock and Vanguard.
by stlutz
Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard fund -> ETF conversion outside Vanguard?
Replies: 5
Views: 473

Re: Vanguard fund -> ETF conversion outside Vanguard?

I inquired about it once at Schwab. They didn't really answer yes or no as they were clearly confused by the question.

I didn't follow up further.
by stlutz
Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe says "Goodbye."
Replies: 445
Views: 69457

Re: Larry Swedroe says "Goodbye."

Compared to the past, the theory board just reads differently now. Not sure if it is for the better, seems more blog oriented in certain threads. RM Partially where the "action" is right now in investing has changed. The breathless discovery of new factors and new ways to combine them in ever more ...
by stlutz
Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe says "Goodbye."
Replies: 445
Views: 69457

Re: Larry Swedroe says "Goodbye."

Lesson from this thread: One shouldn't grow emotionally attached to particular mutual funds.
by stlutz
Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any set of conditions that the market cannot price in?
Replies: 58
Views: 3342

Re: Is there any set of conditions that the market cannot price in?

Before I was a boglehead, I participated in markets of extremely low volume. Think collectibles. Think sales volume of approximately 1 transaction per month. At this point an arm's length transaction is really broken down into its elemental form. In my personal circumstances, this was often the fai...