Search found 5113 matches

by stlutz
Fri Jul 19, 2019 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?
Replies: 186
Views: 15423

Re: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?

If Fed rate cuts happen, do they impact only short term rate? If cut is 0.25%, what happens to today's rate? The 1 month Treasury was 2.51% back in March; its 2.11% now. There has not been a Fed rate cut in that time. Even at the short end, the market tends to run ahead of actual changes in the Fed...
by stlutz
Fri Jul 19, 2019 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Which is better, mutual funds or CDs?
Replies: 18
Views: 1549

Re: Larry Swedroe: Which is better, mutual funds or CDs?

That said, I will add other types of fixed income (CDs, corporate bonds, muni bonds) when spreads vs. Treasuries are attractive to me. Another word for that is market timing. I'm not sure that it's fair to call it market timing when you buy the fixed income investment guaranteed one way or the othe...
by stlutz
Fri Jul 19, 2019 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Which is better, mutual funds or CDs?
Replies: 18
Views: 1549

Re: Larry Swedroe: Which is better, mutual funds or CDs?

Among nominal bonds, I prefer treasuries as the default choice because they have the lowest correlation to equities of any type of fixed income. Sure, they offer lower yields but work very well in a portfolio content. That said, I will add other types of fixed income (CDs, corporate bonds, muni bond...
by stlutz
Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trans-Atlantic Flight Delayed 12 Hours
Replies: 67
Views: 4226

Re: Trans-Atlantic Flight Delayed 12 Hours

I would check with the cruise firm for advice. This type of scenario happens every day with cruises. Only useful if the flight was booked through the cruise company. I wasn't suggesting that the OP demand that the cruise company do something. I'm suggesting he/she learns what the cost (in $ and has...
by stlutz
Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?
Replies: 186
Views: 15423

Re: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?

Maybe I'm wrong here, but wouldn't it make more sense to buy short term TIPS rather than short term nominals right now? If the Fed is drops short term rates, the interest your short nominals will earn will shrink -- that's the risk of owning short duration nominal bonds. But short TIPs will still b...
by stlutz
Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trans-Atlantic Flight Delayed 12 Hours
Replies: 67
Views: 4226

Re: Trans-Atlantic Flight Delayed 12 Hours

I would check with the cruise firm for advice. This type of scenario happens every day with cruises.
by stlutz
Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond ETF Convexity
Replies: 2
Views: 347

Bond ETF Convexity

Over the years we have expressed a desire for fund providers to publish convexity figures in addition to duration for their bond funds. IShares is now doing so. A few selections: TLT: (LT Treasury): 4.00 GOVT (total treasury bond): .88 IGIB: (IT Corporate): .43 SHY (ST Treasury): .05 AGG (total bond...
by stlutz
Wed Jul 17, 2019 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest
Replies: 38
Views: 2648

Re: Larry Swedroe: Next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest

Swedroe has recently become a strong proponent of certain types of "alternative" investments--namely P2P lending and reinsurance. Are there additional opportunities he sees arising over the next 5 years that would be suitable investments?
by stlutz
Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does factor investing only work if you rebalance?
Replies: 14
Views: 899

Re: Does factor investing only work if you rebalance?

Depends if your factor investments beat the market or not. If the market returns 4%/yr for the next 20 years and SCV returns 7%, rebalancing will hurt your returns. If they both have equal returns over time, then rebalancing will help you out.
by stlutz
Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 1099-B Non-Covered CD Basis
Replies: 8
Views: 553

Re: 1099-B Non-Covered CD Basis

The CD was a 6-month CD and VG clearly "checked the box" as "non-covered" That doesn't sound correct. Fixed income securities purchased after 1/1/2014 are covered (except for certain complex securities in which case it was 1/1/2016. https://investor.vanguard.com/taxes/cost-basis/covered-noncovered ...
by stlutz
Mon Jul 15, 2019 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will you buy Total Bond with a negative yield?
Replies: 73
Views: 6298

Re: Will you buy Total Bond with a negative yield?

Which is worse:

a) 0% inflation, bond yields -.5%.
b) 3% inflation, bond yields 2%.

The scenario that will generate the most angst is the not the one that is financially worse.
by stlutz
Sun Jul 14, 2019 5:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Switching from passive to active management
Replies: 104
Views: 7668

Re: Switching form passive to active management

And yet, I’m now considering a 70/30 allocation at this family office. Part of it is because they seem to limit the volatility quite a bit, and part of it is because I’m not “responsible” for major losses anymore, so somehow I feel comfortable with a more aggressive portfolio. Overall, it means I’l...
by stlutz
Sun Jul 14, 2019 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 484
Views: 20508

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

Can rates drop from 3% to 0.6% (also an 80% drop)? It’s certainly possible. I’m not predicting it (or expecting it), mind you, but it’s certainly in the realm of possibility. Many developed economies have seen rates lower than that. Actually, I would argue it's quite likely to happen at some point....
by stlutz
Sun Jul 14, 2019 11:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 100% VMNVX [Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility Fund]
Replies: 13
Views: 1472

Re: 100% VMNVX [Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility Fund]

A 70/30 stock/bond balance would be better. Adding a completely different type of lower-risk asset (bonds) is a better way to reduce risk than focusing entirely on lower volatility stocks. That's interesting. Why do you say that? Hasn't been the case thus far. VMNVX (and ACWV) have outperformed a 7...
by stlutz
Sun Jul 14, 2019 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 484
Views: 20508

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

Interest rates have dropped over the past 30 years from a high of 15%. This cannot repeat starting from today's rates. It most certainly can repeat. I don’t know what makes people think it can’t continue to happen. Are you saying that you see a reasonable possibility of the 10 year treasury yieldin...
by stlutz
Sat Jul 13, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Invest in career change to Accounting for 37 yr old? Would it be foolish?
Replies: 145
Views: 7217

Re: Invest in career change to Accounting for 37 yr old? Would it be foolish?

This sounds interesting. Would you elaborate further into the Business analyst roles and responsibilities a little more? Do they work for firms who send them out to different businesses in order to asses their needs or do they work for the businesses they serve? Product Manager: "I want on online b...
by stlutz
Sat Jul 13, 2019 12:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Accessing funds across Vanguard accounts before settlement date
Replies: 8
Views: 626

Re: Accessing funds across Vanguard accounts before settlement date

You can't move money that you don't have out of an account.

Allowing you to trade with unsettled funds is a courtesy extended to you by your broker. They don't have to let you do so.
by stlutz
Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Zero Coupon Bonds and TIPS In Taxable Account
Replies: 7
Views: 715

Re: Zero Coupon Bonds and TIPS In Taxable Account

You seem to be mixing-up tax efficiency with other issues, such as reinvestment risk. Bonds in general are not particularly tax efficient, although treasuries are a bit better than corporates. However, there may be reasons to hold them in taxable account; tax-efficiency is not usually one of them. ...
by stlutz
Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Invest in career change to Accounting for 37 yr old? Would it be foolish?
Replies: 145
Views: 7217

Re: Invest in career change to Accounting for 37 yr old? Would it be foolish?

What are your writing skills like? Another field worth investigating is becoming a business analyst. If you are wanting to be involved in the problems of the business itself, this is what BAs are working on. In the technology area, developers often don't really know much about how what they are work...
by stlutz
Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax cost stopping move to indexing
Replies: 68
Views: 3105

Re: Tax cost stopping move to indexing

Sell it now and tell yourself that you're taking advantage of current low capital gains rates before they possibly get changed in the future.
by stlutz
Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Five Nobel Laureates Recommend The Market Portfolio
Replies: 58
Views: 6293

Re: Five Nobel Laureates Recommend The Market Portfolio

Honest question: Do any of those people actually hold a market portfolio? I know for sure at least some do not (i.e. Fama). I'm not sure if any of them do, however.
by stlutz
Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Enhancing the Performance of Momentum Strategies
Replies: 4
Views: 623

Re: Larry Swedroe: Enhancing the Performance of Momentum Strategies

Are high volatility stocks more likely to be "extreme absolute strength", and vice versa? If so, is this article really pointing out anything new? Appears so. From the article: The approach suggested by Yang and Zhang effectively excludes the worst performing stocks in March 2009. It is highly like...
by stlutz
Fri Jul 12, 2019 6:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Grand Canyon and More In October
Replies: 25
Views: 1557

Re: Grand Canyon and More In October

But if I were you, I'd go find the places that are not on this list. For example, Glen Canyon dam is just as cool as Hoover Dam, but far less popular. Glen Canyon is just as pretty as the Grand Canyon, yet there isn't even a paved road up to the edge. Buckskin Gulch and West Canyon are just as pret...
by stlutz
Fri Jul 12, 2019 6:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 100% VMNVX [Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility Fund]
Replies: 13
Views: 1472

Re: 100% VMNVX [Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility Fund]

It's reasonable.

A 70/30 stock/bond balance would be better. Adding a completely different type of lower-risk asset (bonds) is a better way to reduce risk than focusing entirely on lower volatility stocks.
by stlutz
Fri Jul 12, 2019 6:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does a variable annuity make sense while living and working outside US?
Replies: 10
Views: 604

Re: Does a variable annuity make sense in this situation?

You might update your thread title to note that you are talking about someone who lives and works overseas. That will help get the right people to reply.

If she was living and working in the US and paying US tax, it would almost certainly be a bad idea.
by stlutz
Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Expands Their Index Fund Lineup
Replies: 61
Views: 6613

Re: Fidelity Expands Their Index Fund Lineup

These funds may or may never launch. Schwab filed for small growth/value ETFs quite a few years ago. Still no such funds exist.
by stlutz
Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Enhancing the Performance of Momentum Strategies
Replies: 4
Views: 623

Re: Larry Swedroe: Enhancing the Performance of Momentum Strategies

Larry Swedroe recently posted an article on improving momentum strategies by screening out stocks with "extreme" recent returns. Do any current momentum funds actually perform this screen? MTUM does indirectly, at least to an extent. Because it measures momentum net of beta, super-volatile stocks w...
by stlutz
Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: paper gold or physical gold?
Replies: 37
Views: 2171

Re: paper gold or physical gold?

Mad Max scenarios have not been needed at all for an allocation to gold to have been useful. In the 1970s, when bonds and stocks both suffered, gold did quite well. And again from 2000-2009, the 'lost decade' for stocks, gold did well. Since 1970, the 30 year SWR for a 60/40 portfolio was 4.5%, but...
by stlutz
Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard hits back at Fidelity's loss-leader strategy by courting higher-margin businesses, like China and private equi
Replies: 19
Views: 1857

Re: "Vanguard hits back at Fidelity's loss-leader strategy by courting higher-margin businesses, like China and private

If Vanguard made "alternative" investments more available to you and me and at lower cost vs. the other options that have been discussed/promoted here in the past, would that be a good thing or a bad thing? As for the businesses they are exiting, those may well have been "loss-leaders" for Vanguard....
by stlutz
Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: paper gold or physical gold?
Replies: 37
Views: 2171

Re: paper gold or physical gold?

If you're going to use an ETF, I would at least use lower cost ones than have been discussed in this thread. GLD and IAU are the higher-cost options. For example, State Street has a second ETF, ticker GLDM with an expense ratio of .18%. It's the same as GLD except that its per share prices is less. ...
by stlutz
Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demographics are Not Destiny (due to Automation)
Replies: 22
Views: 1931

Re: Demographics are Not Destiny (due to Automation)

One thing to be careful of is mixing overall economic growth and GDP per capita. A country with a flat working-age population and 3%/yr. efficiency gains has GDP growing at 3%. A country with 10% working-age population growth and no productivity growth has an economy growing at 10%. Which number you...
by stlutz
Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is Total International Stock Market Index in taxable account as tax efficient as the Total Stock Market Index?
Replies: 11
Views: 1420

Re: Is Total International Stock Market Index in taxable account as tax efficient as the Total Stock Market Index?

What exactly is the question? If the question is simply whether Total US or Total International is more tax efficient if one is only investing in taxable (perhaps they don't have access to a tax advantaged account or the 401K/IRA accounts are full of bonds and REITs), the simple answer is that Total...
by stlutz
Fri Jul 05, 2019 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it impossible to capture the momentum factor?
Replies: 27
Views: 1833

Re: Is it impossible to capture the momentum factor?

MTUM seeks to capture momentum returns net of beta and is probably a more pure way to capture momentum than the F/F approach. But because they are different the returns won't match up with each other.
by stlutz
Fri Jun 28, 2019 1:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard intentionally delaying fund transfer to Fidelity DAF?
Replies: 18
Views: 1482

Re: Vanguard intentionally delaying fund transfer to Fidelity DAF?

This has taken 1-2 weeks for me in the past. That's probably true of moving shares from any 3rd party brokerage.
by stlutz
Sun Jun 23, 2019 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018
Replies: 121
Views: 7058

Re: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018

Siamond--One thing I should add--the work you and your buddies have done in assembling the data in the backtesting spreadsheet is first rate IMO (not that my opinion necessarily means anything :D ). Wanted to make it clear that none of my comments in this thread should be interpreted as rejecting th...
by stlutz
Sun Jun 23, 2019 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018
Replies: 121
Views: 7058

Re: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018

Yes, Russell backtracked. And Fama-French extended this logic of backtracking indices which are essentially fairly simple formulas applied to historical CRSP individual securities. So what? The fact that an index (or even an index fund) existed for real or not seems irrelevant to me. People investi...
by stlutz
Sat Jun 22, 2019 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The End of Passive Investing?
Replies: 55
Views: 5072

Re: The End of Passive Investing?

This is the best discussion I have seen on the topic:

http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/05/passive/
by stlutz
Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV Methodology Issues
Replies: 9
Views: 616

Re: SCV Methodology Issues

"Buy and hold" is arguably not a good value stock strategy. In one sense, the market has historically gotten it right with value stocks. That is, these companies do in fact exhibit lower future growth rates and lower corporate performance overall (return on equity etc.) Value stock outperformance ha...
by stlutz
Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018
Replies: 121
Views: 7058

Re: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018

OK--instead of asking nisiprius to do my work for me, I went ahead and pulled together some of my own analysis. The OP was interested in a couple of subjects--I'm only interested in one--how much "return leakage" was there in implementing a SV strategy historically beyond just the management fee (i....
by stlutz
Fri Jun 21, 2019 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018
Replies: 121
Views: 7058

Re: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018

[Based on the exchange with siamond above, it appears that there is a current (as in best research data) data-set that goes back to 1926 that is derived from the original Fama/French data sets. Nisiprius should try that data. I think the point of the thread is that everybody has seen that data. I t...
by stlutz
Fri Jun 21, 2019 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018
Replies: 121
Views: 7058

Re: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018

Why don't you use the data from this paper (see p. 21)? https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=879291 The conclusions of the paper are problematic because they used arithmetic instead of geometric returns, but the data methodology is at least sound. That is, the database has largely ad...
by stlutz
Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018
Replies: 121
Views: 7058

Re: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018

Why don't you use the data from this paper (see p. 21)? https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=879291 The conclusions of the paper are problematic because they used arithmetic instead of geometric returns, but the data methodology is at least sound. That is, the database has largely add...
by stlutz
Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Karsten (Early Retirement Now) Pens a Challenge to Merriman and the Small/Value Premium
Replies: 68
Views: 6266

Big ERN article on small/value stocks

The earlyretirmentnow guy has a nice writeup on the small/value premiums that do a nice job of summing up a lot of discussion that we have had her over the years. Don't know that I have much to add aside from largely [though not fully] agreeing with his conclusions. https://earlyretirementnow.com/20...
by stlutz
Mon Jun 17, 2019 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV tilt advocates, please suggest a percentage for me to use in a backtest
Replies: 31
Views: 1881

Re: SCV tilt advocates, please suggest a percentage for me to use in a backtest

I want to compare a portfolio of 60% large-cap blend stocks 40% intermediate-term investment-grade bonds to a comparable portfolio with a reasonable small-cap value tilt. ... Please suggest some numbers. Not necessarily some optimum, but a good, workmanlike tilt, with enough heft for the hoped-for ...
by stlutz
Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 64
Views: 4907

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

I doubt that I have enough street cred, even on the forum, to influence the buying of Value stocks. If you would give a definitive buy signal, we could test that out! :P :P Okay, now that I have given the famous "These dangerous stunts you are watching should be performed only by highly trained pro...
by stlutz
Mon Jun 17, 2019 1:14 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Why not add a "like" button to Boglehead posts?
Replies: 185
Views: 31088

Re: A way to "thank" posts

Send an IM. A personal thank you means a lot more than a Facebook-style like.
by stlutz
Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 64
Views: 4907

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

nedsaid wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:27 pm
I doubt that I have enough street cred, even on the forum, to influence the buying of Value stocks.
If you would give a definitive buy signal, we could test that out! :P :P
by stlutz
Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 64
Views: 4907

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

For STLUTZ, wow, you don't see any difference when SG PEG is 84 vs 25? Those high ratios are reflection of low earnings/margins, not that smallcap stocks have been bid into the stratosphere. As such, the issue with with narrow profit margins. It doesn't take that much of a change in the profit marg...
by stlutz
Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 64
Views: 4907

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

And as one additional note to be clear, I am not of the view that the value trade is "overcrowded". I think that all of the research about a value return premium has helped the market price stocks more correctly such than value will not be "undercrowded" in a sustained, year-after-year fashion as it...