Search found 4519 matches

by stlutz
Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 41
Views: 1944

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

It looks like my response got lost in the aether... Anyway. I'm not worried about short term inflation. For long-term inflation I plan to rely on equities. As Kevin noted, there doesn't seem to be much of a term premium for IT treasuries. I think that my analysis showed that the benefits of ST trea...
by stlutz
Sun Jul 15, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios
Replies: 70
Views: 5501

Re: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios

Could I make a friendly suggestion that we stop dropping crucial modifiers when talking about "premiums" or "factors"? A "risk" premium indicates that one should expect asset A to return more than asset B because asset A is more risky and most investors should prefer asset B despite the lower expect...
by stlutz
Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Portfolio
Replies: 11
Views: 1136

Re: Bond Portfolio

Instead of starting out by analyzing where you think the market is wrong (i.e. there is no value in any bonds beyond 2-3 years), I would start out by understanding what the market is saying. The current shape of the yield curve indicates that the market thinks there is a strong possibility of a rece...
by stlutz
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios
Replies: 70
Views: 5501

Re: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios

Larry Swedroe sent me this PM: sorry but this is also wrong: In order to believe that market beta has a persistent and worthwhile premium, one needs to believe only that businesses are capable of making money and that (in a loosely-coupled general sort of long-term way) stocks of money-making compa...
by stlutz
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds
Replies: 50
Views: 3258

Re: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds

...but from what I've seen and experienced, I'd say that a well diversified portfolio of P2P loans is close to the same risk as investment grade corporate bonds. Consumer credit, in general, is far less volatile than high-yield bonds. The former was in the black in 2008, whereas Vanguard's high-yie...
by stlutz
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds
Replies: 50
Views: 3258

Re: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds

Sorry but just had to post this, once again showing how people post without actually knowing what they are talking about yet making very declarative statements. I just received an email today from Stone Ridge with a new paper entitled An Alternative to Bonds in a Modern Portfolio, and of course LEN...
by stlutz
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds
Replies: 50
Views: 3258

Re: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds

I generally view the value of the these threads as a way to illuminate different ways of evaluating an investment, so allow me to ask for a clarification from Larry/Dave/willthrill or whoever wants to opine. I proposed that the best way to compare the risk of otherwise similar fixed income investmen...
by stlutz
Fri Jul 13, 2018 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If my brokerage debit card is used fraudulently, who's responsible for margin interest charges?
Replies: 12
Views: 859

Re: If my brokerage debit card is used fraudulently, who's responsible for margin interest charges?

I would read their FAQ on the Cash Manager tool closely.

One helpful statement:
Note: Available margin or non-core money market funds are used to cover overdrafts only if you select that as an option.
by stlutz
Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using an ETF for TIPS investing
Replies: 10
Views: 916

Re: Thoughts on using an ETF for TIPS investing

PalmQueen: Since you are looking at switching from a money market fund to a TIPS fund, you should be aware that TIPS do fluctuate in value from year to year due to changes in real interest rates. Vanguard's TIPS fund was down 8.61% in 2013. Now, that's not to scare you away--it's simply to make sure...
by stlutz
Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds
Replies: 50
Views: 3258

Re: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds

When I buy a CD from the bank, my principal and earned interest are guaranteed, not only by the bank but by the US government. If I buy a Treasury bond, I can be super-highly confident of getting paid back as well. The next level of risk in fixed income would be municipal bonds. Default rates are ex...
by stlutz
Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds
Replies: 50
Views: 3258

Re: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds

one other thought to add that again showing people make statements they have no clue about but speak as if they do, making declarative statements such as "That means P2P is left with loans that banks don't want to make, which are more likely (though not always) to be ones that involve more risk." t...
by stlutz
Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yield curve inversion
Replies: 47
Views: 4125

Re: yield curve inversion

Going back to this question I raised last week: A question partially raised by another thread that's going on now as well. Is there any suggestion that inverting the curve *causes* a recession to occur? Or would the claim simply be that long-term rates tend to be a little "smarter" in economic forec...
by stlutz
Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling Treasuries before maturity
Replies: 11
Views: 1042

Re: Selling Treasuries before maturity

It's also been shared that Schwab seems to offer best Treasury pricing on small quantities--just the opposite of Fidelity (and I think Vanguard too).
And I've given some friendly feedback to Fidelity about the matter... :P
by stlutz
Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling Treasuries before maturity
Replies: 11
Views: 1042

Re: Selling Treasuries before maturity

The bid/ask spread for this relatively small quantity was about 15 basis points (0.15 percentage points Was this during trading hours? I've noticed that quoted spreads on Fidelity are smaller during trading hours than if I look in the evening--generally about 8 basis points for small lots. But thos...
by stlutz
Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds
Replies: 50
Views: 3258

Re: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds

This is the problem I have with the marketing of these funds on BH. On one hand, when we are talking about returns, we have the statement, I agree that financialization is a big concern as well, but when there is a strong risk story behind a premium, then a rational market should perhaps cut the pre...
by stlutz
Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it contradictory to be a Boglehead and have substantial allocation towards SCV?
Replies: 30
Views: 2188

Re: Is it contradictory to be a Boglehead and have substantial allocation towards SCV?

People on this board adopt all sorts of tilts. The global stock market is about 40% stocks. Most people have higher equity allocations than that. Is that deviation from the market contradictory? The global equity market is about 53% US stocks. Most people here have a higher weighting than this. Is t...
by stlutz
Sun Jul 08, 2018 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What methods are you using to deterimine price to offer on new cars
Replies: 15
Views: 1331

Re: What methods are you using to deterimine price to offer on new cars

E-mail dealers and ask them for an out-the-door price (including all taxes, fees etc.) on the exact vehicle you are looking at. You can take the best offer or have them start negotiating against each other as outlined here: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=124638 One other note, when...
by stlutz
Thu Jul 05, 2018 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to offer non-Vanguard ETFs commission-free
Replies: 120
Views: 8938

Re: Vanguard to offer non-Vanguard ETFs commission-free

Are you sure that is a net cost to execute trades? I always thought there was some margin in the trades themselves for the broker. If you run a lean ship, that may cover the cost. For the Robinhoods of the world who accept payment for order flow, there is. Vanguard doesn't accept such payments so t...
by stlutz
Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity cash position
Replies: 42
Views: 4508

Re: Fidelity cash position

You probably don't even have to do that, as Fidelity will automatically pull from other MM funds if there isn't enough in the settlement fund. Another forum member pointed this out, and while I haven't tested it on a large scale, I was $0.01 short in my settlement fund once, and that was pulled fro...
by stlutz
Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000
Replies: 48
Views: 6545

Re: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000

I've noted in the past that a lot of the "experts" that we like around here are not actually all that adverse to some limited market timing. Our religious fervor about it does not emanate from Boglehead writers. The valid reason that folks here are absolutely against this type of market timing is th...
by stlutz
Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield curves and bond returns
Replies: 31
Views: 2519

Re: Yield curves and bond returns

By my calculations, the "expected return" bump back up a bit if you extend way out to like 30 years. And I guess that would pretty much always be the case if the yield curve is upward sloping. Another way to put it is that term risk is generally "worth it" absent higher inflation (which is a big and...
by stlutz
Wed Jul 04, 2018 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Switch to LT bonds in this falling rate environment?
Replies: 43
Views: 2688

Re: Switch to LT bonds in this falling rate environment?

And I'm somewhat puzzled by the reference to 2006-2007 as a period when the fed raised the FFR numerous times. The FFR actually begin increasing in Jul 2004, and continued until Jul 2006. During much of this time, the 10-year yield declined or was relatively unchanged. Thanks for the clarification/...
by stlutz
Wed Jul 04, 2018 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bond fund - short, intermediate, long
Replies: 3
Views: 267

Re: bond fund - short, intermediate, long

Is this sufficient, or should I also have short and long covered?
That is sufficient. Adding a combo of short and long term in the appropriate percentages would, over the long term, perform the same as just holding the intermediate fund.
by stlutz
Wed Jul 04, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity cash position
Replies: 42
Views: 4508

Re: Fidelity cash position

...does it have 30-day minimum retention and if I sell during market hours, do I have access to the cash to trade the next second? I think the answer is "no" to the first question. I think the answer to the second question could be "yes" since money market funds settle the same day while other trad...
by stlutz
Wed Jul 04, 2018 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yield curve inversion
Replies: 47
Views: 4125

Re: yield curve inversion

When the curve drops below 0, the yield curve between 2-year and 10-year maturity is inverted. Using this measure, the yield curve did always invert before a recession, but sometimes quite awhile before, and in 3 out of 5 receissions, it had uninverted before the recession officially started. A que...
by stlutz
Wed Jul 04, 2018 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yield curve inversion
Replies: 47
Views: 4125

Re: yield curve inversion

Yield curve inversion is a very clear technical description; it's hard to imagine the definition being mushy enough to allow for significant shifting. Do you have evidence backing the impression that the definition is shifting? I think back in the olden days everybody would compare the 3 month T-bi...
by stlutz
Wed Jul 04, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity cash position
Replies: 42
Views: 4508

Re: Fidelity cash position

SPAXX currently yields about 1.5%.
by stlutz
Wed Jul 04, 2018 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Switch to LT bonds in this falling rate environment?
Replies: 43
Views: 2688

Re: Switch to LT bonds in this falling rate environment?

As a side note, I was not trying to get a rise out of Larry Swedroe. First, I've become less and less clear over time what his views on fixed income actually are. And second, I don't know that he should really care about stlutz's views on fixed income in any case. :D
by stlutz
Wed Jul 04, 2018 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Switch to LT bonds in this falling rate environment?
Replies: 43
Views: 2688

Re: Switch to LT bonds in this falling rate environment?

Hi all--my post was partly tongue-in-cheek but also partly serious. Everybody is well aware that the Fed is projecting that they will raise rates a bunch more times over the next couple of years. But the longer-term more market-driven sections of the bond market have been distinctly unimpressed. It ...
by stlutz
Wed Jul 04, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to offer non-Vanguard ETFs commission-free
Replies: 120
Views: 8938

Re: Vanguard to offer non-Vanguard ETFs commission-free

This move does show that Vanguard is in fact not a pure "at-cost" provider. It does cost something to execute trades, especially when you don't accept payment for order flow (as VG does not, to their credit). As such, these free ETF trades will be funded by something else. Perhaps it will be by keep...
by stlutz
Wed Jul 04, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Switch to LT bonds in this falling rate environment?
Replies: 43
Views: 2688

Switch to LT bonds in this falling rate environment?

The 10 year Treasury rate seemed to have peaked at 3.11% back in May and has since fallen to 2.83% today. With the stock market spooked by the trade war and given that this economic expansion is so long in the tooth and will likely end soon, I'm wondering if I should switch my bond portfolio to long...
by stlutz
Tue Jul 03, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ever sell bonds?
Replies: 4
Views: 894

Re: Does the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ever sell bonds?

They sell bonds when they have 1 year left to maturity.

They will also sell a bond if it is downgraded to having a junk credit rating.
by stlutz
Tue Jul 03, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Transporting bikes with an SUV?
Replies: 38
Views: 1727

Re: Transporting bikes with an SUV?

Bikes should go in the car. People can go on top or they can make other arrangements.

At least that's how it works in my household.

I am single.
by stlutz
Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to offer non-Vanguard ETFs commission-free
Replies: 120
Views: 8938

Re: Vanguard to offer non-Vanguard ETFs commission-free

I feel like on the board that the announcement we've really wanted is for Vanguard to say that they've deployed a new IT system that will fix all of the various gremlins they currently have, particularly when it comes to cost basis. Are they trolling us? :confused
by stlutz
Mon Jul 02, 2018 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Fees For Bond Purchases
Replies: 8
Views: 641

Re: Fidelity Fees For Bond Purchases

If you bought a Vanguard Muni Bond fund your annual expenses for a $500,000 position would be $500,000 x .19% (typical) = $950 yearly. Vanguard's fund feeds are .09% for their national funds at least, so more like $450. OP: Do you actually have some type of specific need that requires having your o...
by stlutz
Sun Jul 01, 2018 3:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: bike helmets
Replies: 82
Views: 4529

Re: bike helmets

Yes you should replace. And there really isn't any good reason *not* to get a MIPS helmet. It may not be necessary, but there aren't really trade-offs with it either.
by stlutz
Sat Jun 30, 2018 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Secondary bond selling price and market discount
Replies: 5
Views: 432

Re: Secondary bond selling price and market discount

Yes, if you well at $998 after one year you are selling at a loss.
by stlutz
Sat Jun 30, 2018 1:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Capital One Investing Changing to E-Trade - Anyone Moving?
Replies: 13
Views: 3914

Re: Capital One Investing Changing to E-Trade - Anyone Moving?

It generally takes about a week to transfer to another broker. Note that fractional shares can't be transferred anywhere, so you're stuck with the taxes on those regardless.
by stlutz
Sat Jun 30, 2018 1:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help with interpreting brokered CD information
Replies: 4
Views: 589

Re: Need help with interpreting brokered CD information

So does 2.214 represent an extrapolated APY, i.e. is it annualized? Or does it represent the actual percentage return I'll experience between now and the maturity date? Or to put it another way, if I see two CDs with the same Yield to Maturity but whose maturity dates differ by a month, say, then a...
by stlutz
Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help with interpreting brokered CD information
Replies: 4
Views: 589

Re: Need help with interpreting brokered CD information

You are correct across the board. The only place I can help is with: Another question. Fidelity charges a $1 fee per CD share traded, which is $0.10 per $100 of par value. So the "real" Ask Price is 99.690, not 99.590, right? And if so, how do I compute the updated Ask Yield to Maturity number based...
by stlutz
Fri Jun 29, 2018 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else having issues calling the Vanguard ETF number?
Replies: 5
Views: 325

Re: Anyone else having issues calling the Vanguard ETF number?

I think Vanguard Brokerage Services (800-992-8327) is the correct number to call.

I think the ETF number is for information about their ETFs as opposed to executing transactions.
by stlutz
Fri Jun 29, 2018 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is this correct? 5-6 Days Sell VTEB to Checking Account
Replies: 20
Views: 1453

Re: Is this correct? 5-6 Days Sell VTEB to Checking Account

June 26th AM...sold shares of VTEB
June 27th PM initiated an automatic transfer for the proceeds on June 28th
June 28th T+2 Settlement Date
June 29th T+3 at 5:11 pm The proceeds arrived in my account.
Thanks for letting us know the result!
by stlutz
Fri Jun 29, 2018 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a way to avoid bad companies in S&P 500?
Replies: 92
Views: 4472

Re: Why would creating an intelligent S&P 475 be so difficult to do?

And Vanguard's S&P500 index fund contains 507 companies As a side note, the S&P 500 contains 505 stocks of 500 companies. So, for example, Alphabet (or what most people know as Google) has Class A and Class C shares, both of which are in the S&P 500. Funds and ETFs will generally additionally have ...
by stlutz
Fri Jun 29, 2018 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Dividend Policy And Stock Returns
Replies: 8
Views: 743

Re: Larry Swedroe: Dividend Policy And Stock Returns

We should keep in the mind that the focus of the research paper is on the dividend payout rate (presumably DPS/EPS), not on dividend yield (DPS/Price). It's not uncommon to have a high (low) payout rate and a low (high) yield. I've asserted in the past that I think investors are better allocators of...
by stlutz
Wed Jun 27, 2018 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is day trading profitable?
Replies: 36
Views: 3091

Re: Is day trading profitable?

Following the traditional definition of "day trading", whereby you trade during the but close out all positions before the market closes, the answer is "no". That is because basically all of the longer-term returns in the market occur during overnight hours. e.g. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/02/y...
by stlutz
Wed Jun 27, 2018 12:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SHV and tax treatment
Replies: 2
Views: 264

Re: SHV and tax treatment

When you file your taxes next year you'll go to this page and look for a document called, "US Government Income Source Information".

https://www.ishares.com/us/library/tax

It will tell you what percentage of the fund's income can be excluded from your state tax. In 2017, it was 98.47%.
by stlutz
Tue Jun 26, 2018 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected reward for risk of Corp bond over CD?
Replies: 8
Views: 607

Re: Expected reward for risk of Corp bond over CD?

I think the challenge is that for you the CD offers something of a free lunch. Big investors don't really benefit from the low (to them) limit on FDIC protection. So, if you're buying $1B in CDs (as a prime money market fund might be doing), you're really buying a corporate bond. For the rest of us,...
by stlutz
Tue Jun 26, 2018 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab or Vanguard simple ETFs portfolio at Schwab
Replies: 11
Views: 635

Re: Schwab or Vanguard simple ETFs portfolio at Schwab

What would the recommended ratio between SCHF, SCHE and SCHC for international? I would really like to keep things as simple as possible

To start out you can skip SCHC as that would end up being a very small holding dollar wise. I would go with an 80/20 ratio between SCHF and SCHE.
by stlutz
Tue Jun 26, 2018 9:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Timing exit from megacorp
Replies: 54
Views: 5813

Re: Timing exit from megacorp

You haven't mentioned healthcare, but you can use COBRA for 18 months which makes a 6/30 date attractive if you wanted to use this option as you wouldn't have to mess with finding a good ACA plan for two enrollment cycles.