Search found 73 matches

by rarvesen
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 684
Views: 21113

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

The tracking site is updated, please let me know if you notice any issues with the guesses and I'll make any corrections.
by rarvesen
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 684
Views: 21113

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Thanks so much to Silk McCue and Wind_Reaver for going through and getting the names / guesses, I'll get the tracking site updated shortly.
by rarvesen
Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 684
Views: 21113

If anyone has time

Hi, sorry about the tracking site, I usually get all of the entries entered with a few weeks, but I have been really busy at my day-job, and just as busy at my night-job, and I'm finding it difficult to find any time to go through and enter the entries. I will do it sometime (could be months), or if...
by rarvesen
Tue Feb 05, 2019 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Coverdell Savings Account (ESA), withdraws for previous year, transfer part of account
Replies: 1
Views: 160

Coverdell Savings Account (ESA), withdraws for previous year, transfer part of account

I have a Coverdell Savings Account (ESA) and have several questions: 1) Do you know if can withdraw for education expenses for previous years? Example, had account since 2015, had expenses in 2017, can withdraw be made in 2019? 2) Is there any overlap in the years and taking out funds? For example, ...
by rarvesen
Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST [Entry deadline has passed]
Replies: 701
Views: 21715

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

(I've already reported a problem with our numbers: Mr.ResearchMed and ResearchMed were both given the same entry.)
Thanks for letting me know, this has been updated, let me know if you still see any problems.
Ralph
by rarvesen
Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST [Entry deadline has passed]
Replies: 701
Views: 21715

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Can the duplicates be removed? I'm not the one that decides, but in my opinion, I don't think duplicate entries should be removed and all entries should be tracked. The contest makes the point that no one can predict the market and it's for fun. If two people are tied for first place since they ent...
by rarvesen
Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST [Entry deadline has passed]
Replies: 701
Views: 21715

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Ralph, the tracking site used to give us the option of seeing the contest by placement OR by name in alphabetical order. Does this site no longer allow us to view by name? Sorry, that is correct, it only displays in placement order. I was not sure if anyone was using the other sort features and the...
by rarvesen
Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST [Entry deadline has passed]
Replies: 701
Views: 21715

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

The tracking site has been updated. Please let me know if I got your entry incorrect... I wrote a script that collects a lot of the data, but some of it is a manual process and I don't want to make a mistake with your guess. :-)

Tracking site
https://www.lostoak.com/ls/diehards/contest
by rarvesen
Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST [Entry deadline has passed]
Replies: 701
Views: 21715

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Hmmmm. One downside I notice is that one has to read through 13 (presently) pages of guesses to see if someone else has used the one you plan to use. Since the rules (from last year) are that the earliest duplicate submission wins over a later one and you can't change your guess once submitted, it ...
by rarvesen
Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 167
Views: 17204

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

SimpleGift wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:52 pm
Now that the registration period for the 2018 Bogleheads is closed, we can display the frequency distribution of the final entries in a histogram chart:
Thanks so much, this is great!
by rarvesen
Fri Jan 05, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 167
Views: 17204

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

UBS has changed their forecast - 3150. Since the contest entries are not yet closed, should we update their guess? Or, are the rules for the Wall Street Experts the same as for all of us: "Only one guess"? https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/04/ubs-raises-2018-sp-500-forecast-now-sees-18-percent-surge.htm...
by rarvesen
Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 167
Views: 17204

Up to 400

The contest currently has 400 entries :-)
by rarvesen
Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 167
Views: 17204

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

The new interface allows a real-time look at the contest entries by looking at the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19-5aO8g6xePwdCdE5boerLE7uP1d31B6tenbGYOwmfI/edit#gid=451082556 I was thinking about writing a spreadsheet analyzer that would tell you the next best pick given the...
by rarvesen
Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 167
Views: 17204

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

BigJohn wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:17 pm
Form is a great change, thanks. I may have inadvertently submitted two entries with my user name, hope that does not screw up your system. My apologies if it causes issues.
No problem at all, I have a way to detect duplicate names, thanks for entering :-)
by rarvesen
Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 167
Views: 17204

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Christine_NM wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:06 am
Rows 189 and 190 on the spreadsheet are identical, both mine -- sorry about that. Feel free to delete one. Or delete both and I will resubmit the form.
Hi Christine - I took care of this, you are in good shape.
by rarvesen
Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 167
Views: 17204

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

entries can be made by anyone I thought about that also and it's a valid concern. The Google Form helps several issues and I was hoping valid-users would not be a problem, but if it looks like it's a problem, then I can write something that validates each user back to the Boglehead Forum... not sur...
by rarvesen
Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 167
Views: 17204

Re: Registration For 2018 Boglehead Contest

. Ralph, Nice changes. Particularly the dropping of the wild guesses from the averages. Although I do not submit a guess, I do enjoy watching the process during the year. To provide a link to the details of the changes: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=236261 Thanks Randy, I ap...
by rarvesen
Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 167
Views: 17204

REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

NOTE TO EVERYONE: IF YOU DON'T USE THE NEW AUTOMATIC REGISTRATION FORM AS INDICATED BELOW, YOU'RE NOT ENTERED. FOLLOW DIRECTIONS IF YOU WANT TO ENTER. Taylor asked me to announce our new automatic registration for the annual contest. Instead of entering your guess here, you will need to enter your ...
by rarvesen
Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Contest tracking site changes
Replies: 1
Views: 580

Boglehead Contest tracking site changes

I wanted to give everyone an update, there are a few change to the contest site. Slight change to look Updated the tracking site to be more responsive to different devices (web, mobile, etc.). Hopefully it displays a little better, and not worse then before :-) Here is how the 2017 tracking site loo...
by rarvesen
Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 711
Views: 46843

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

The tracking site has been updated. It's a semi-manual (well, more manual) process to enter the guesses, please let me know if you see any problems with your entry. Thanks.

http://www.lostoak.com/ls/diehards/contest
by rarvesen
Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 711
Views: 46843

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

bkweathe wrote:Why is my entry
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=206949&p=3181038#p3181038
not included in the tracking site
http://www.lostoak.com/ls/diehards/contest/default.aspx
?

Brad
The site has been updated, I have you down for 2350.78, let me know if that is incorrect.
by rarvesen
Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 711
Views: 46843

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

likegarden wrote:Mine is also not in the list. It is 2400.
The site has been updated, I verified your guess is 2400.
by rarvesen
Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 Boglehead Contest Charts
Replies: 11
Views: 2077

Re: 2017 Boglehead Contest Charts

Now that the 2017 Boglehead Contest is officially underway and all bids have been placed, I ran some graphs of the predictions. I posted this last year too, and I think it was both interesting and fun! Thanks for the charts surfer1 , how do you pull the guesses from the forum thread? I think you mi...
by rarvesen
Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 711
Views: 46843

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

You know what is scary? I just looked at the 330+ entries and not a single one forecasts a decline in the S&P 500 for 2017. Not one. Holy Cow! I think there are quite a few decline forecast. Here is a scatter-graph that shows the guesses through page 10 (I think 490 guesses). The large gray line is...
by rarvesen
Thu Jan 05, 2017 1:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 711
Views: 46843

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Thanks The Dan for posting the graph earlier.
Here is a graph showing guesses through page 10, excluding BarryZuckerkorn (20592.62) and madbrain (36,000).

Image
by rarvesen
Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 711
Views: 46843

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

madbrain wrote:36,000
madbrain - did you mean to guess 36,000?
by rarvesen
Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 711
Views: 46843

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

BarryZuckerkorn wrote:20592.62
BarryZuckerkorn - did you mean to guess 20,592.62?
by rarvesen
Sat Dec 31, 2016 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 Boglehead Contest Winners
Replies: 22
Views: 3020

Re: 2016 Boglehead Contest Winners

I'm updating the site for the 2017 contest. The 2016 results are archived at:

http://www.lostoak.com/ls/diehards/cont ... index.html
by rarvesen
Mon Jan 11, 2016 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 667
Views: 49660

Re: Registration had ended for the 2016 contest

surfer1 wrote:The count looks correct. I've collected 600 entries before the midnight deadline, and an additional 2 after. So looks like you've got them all.
Thanks surfer1.
by rarvesen
Mon Jan 11, 2016 12:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 667
Views: 49660

Registration had ended for the 2016 contest

The registration had ended for the 2016 contest. The predictions have been updated and are available at the tracking site: Boglehead Contest 2016 http://www.lostsprings.com/diehards/contest I'll go through and verify entries since it is semi-automatic, but still partially manual. Let me know if you ...
by rarvesen
Sun Jan 10, 2016 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 667
Views: 49660

Reminder, the contest closes at midnight ET Sunday (tonight)

Reminder, the contest closes in 15 minutes... at midnight, Eastern Time, Sunday night.
by rarvesen
Sun Jan 10, 2016 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 667
Views: 49660

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

sawhorse wrote:Awesome, thank you! Did you or someone else graph the predictions from previous years?
The contest tracking site will include all of the predictions tomorrow. It also includes the predictions from previous years.

Boglehead Contest 2016
http://www.lostsprings.com/diehards/contest
by rarvesen
Thu Jan 07, 2016 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 667
Views: 49660

Better way to track the contest

I have come across a couple of comments about different ways to track the contest. If you have a suggestion on how the entry and tracking could be improved, please contact Taylor and myself. I would love to have a replacement for the current tracking site, and others are welcome to take it over. Thi...
by rarvesen
Fri Jan 09, 2015 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Replies: 557
Views: 47886

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Not Law wrote:Why are only 64 entries listed in the tracking site? And since mine is not, does that mean I am not registered?
Hi, it's a manual process where I have to take all of the entries posted in this forum thread and add them to the tracking site. It should have more entries today.
--
ralph
by rarvesen
Fri Jan 17, 2014 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 537
Views: 34199

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

I'd like to remind everyone that the wiki has a link to the contest on the left side menu (Links section) as Bogleheads® contest . Be sure to check your entry and report back errors. Taylor - There are 5 entries for 2000.00. I hope you're prepared to issue 5 first place prizes. :) Thanks for the re...
by rarvesen
Thu Jan 16, 2014 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 537
Views: 34199

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Cuzz35 wrote:Random number generator in excel gave me 20,763.83. An 11.23% gain. Hope to do better but would be happy with that.
Did you mean 2,076.38? I assume that's the case, but please let me know if you really meant 20,763.83.
by rarvesen
Thu Jan 09, 2014 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 537
Views: 34199

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

rarvesen 8:13 karvesen 8:13 marvesen 8:14 hmmm......methinks the game's afoot...... That's myself and two daughters, we all entered our guesses at the same time. I discuss the contest and explain how no one really knows and you have just as good of a chance as the experts, and more of a chance to c...
by rarvesen
Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Contest 2013 archived
Replies: 0
Views: 253

Boglehead Contest 2013 archived

The Boglehead Contest 2013 is archived at http://www.lostsprings.com/diehards/con ... chive/2013.
--
ralph
by rarvesen
Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Replies: 481
Views: 29953

Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Hi Taylor, I did not see my guess in the list. I guessed 1559.85 earlier in the day yesterday (on page 10). I was also on page ten. Probably needs updating. Taylor, I do not see my guess on the list. I guessed 1617.30. Sorry for the delay. This is a manual process, people enter their guess on the f...
by rarvesen
Thu Jan 10, 2013 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Replies: 481
Views: 29953

Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

1. LadyGeek is in the table twice 2. Sorting by name does not work properly, Harold comes out first. Thanks for reporting the issues, they both should be fixed now. I try to update the entries / tracking site while people are guessing in case it's helpful when people decide what to guess, but I did...
by rarvesen
Thu Jan 10, 2013 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Replies: 481
Views: 29953

Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

This was my fault, and has been updated, the correct entry is 1463.50. Thanks for notifying me.
by rarvesen
Thu Jan 10, 2013 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Replies: 481
Views: 29953

Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Some entries don't match. How is the data processed. Also, what about people who edit their entries? I was told I could not change my entry last year. The rules are a bit fuzzy, no? The entries are entered manually from the posts on this forum. Please let me know of any entries that are incorrect. ...
by rarvesen
Mon Jan 10, 2011 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2011 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Replies: 374
Views: 38024

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