Search found 108 matches

by jolmscheid
Sun Jan 21, 2024 7:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Side hustles for mid to late career folks
Replies: 112
Views: 16501

Re: Side hustles for mid to late career folks

Jack FFR1846 wrote: Mon Apr 10, 2023 9:14 pm A side hustle used to simply be called a second job. When I first started working as an engineer, for a short time, I worked at a gas station on weekends.

Unless you have some successful, low effort part time business, you're talking low pay jobs that you'll probably compete with high school kids to do.

I can make more money selling tradelines than driving for Uber or delivering pizzas. And selling tradelines won't add miles to my car.
Have done some research on Tradelines and it seems like a decent opportunity if positioned for it.

Do you have any resources that you would highly suggest as to how to carry it out efficiently?
by jolmscheid
Tue Aug 22, 2023 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: submit ?s: Dr. Bernstein on 'The Four Pillars of Investing'
Replies: 30
Views: 6302

Re: submit ?s: Dr. Bernstein on 'The Four Pillars of Investing'

How should or could one view annuities in retirement? Should they be viewed as a bond-like substitute? Example: to cover fixed costs/expenses, etc.
by jolmscheid
Fri Jun 09, 2023 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investments you wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole
Replies: 242
Views: 26770

Re: Investments you wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole

Bogleheads: I had a license to sell annuities when I was a life insurance salesman. I learned that most annuities are inferior products that enrich the salesperson at the expense of the buyer. I never sold one. I also learned that Single Premium Immediate Annuities (SPIA) are excellent products. They are easy to understand and their premiums are very competitive. SPIAs, provide the highest guaranteed, worry-free, lifetime income of any investment. I own two. Multi-Year Guaranteed Annuities (MYGA) are usually "good annuities". Best wishes. Taylor Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "I probably prefer an immediate annuity which starts paying your right away." Thanks Taylor. This is obviously a strategy for someone in drawdown p...
by jolmscheid
Wed Dec 21, 2022 4:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: DBMF - Managed Futures Strategy ETF
Replies: 59
Views: 6861

Re: DBMF - Managed Futures Strategy ETF

...Thanks! So, from a Boglehead perspective, having a portion of a managed futures ETF as part of a diversified portfolio does not line up because of the higher fees?... From this Boglehead's perspective, it does not line up because it's a distraction that's unlikely to do much good, and because it runs contrary to John C. Bogle's advocacy of "simplicity." it's the same as any other "managed" fund. You've seen in Professoro's response above that advocates of managed futures say that managed futures are not automatically useful in themselves, you have know how to pick the good ones. There are storylines as to why you might expect commodity futures to make money, but they're sophisticated and indirect and I don't trust th...
by jolmscheid
Tue Dec 20, 2022 4:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: DBMF - Managed Futures Strategy ETF
Replies: 59
Views: 6861

Re: DBMF - Managed Futures Strategy ETF

Ray Dalio has talked in the past on how uncorrelated assets are "the holy grail." I believe he said a basket of 15 uncorrelated assets is what he would shoot for...it seems like adding futures to a 3-fund portfolio could be in line with Dalio's premise. But in 2014 he had an opportunity, in a long interview with Tony Robbins, to suggest a portfolio embodying his philosophy that an ordinary investor could invest in, and he didn't suggest including a managed futures ETF. DBMF didn't exist in 2014, but WTMF did. I don't know about Dalio, but WTMF and FMF have not performed well since their inception. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performance?s=y&symbol=DBMF&symbols=WTMF+FMF+ASFYX+PQTIX At this point, there are thr...
by jolmscheid
Wed Nov 02, 2022 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Covered Calls Portfolio
Replies: 13
Views: 1925

Re: Covered Calls Portfolio

Thanks for the replies on this. If someone is looking for income, or is looking to take the income and re-invest, couldn't one ploy this stategy on a portion of their buy and hold S&P index instead of all of it?

Someone I know sells weekly covered calls at .2-.3 delta on a portion of their overall buy and hold S&P index, and shoot for around $1,000/month for example. They re-invest this back into their covered call portion of their portfolio until they grow that portion enough to potentially create a side income.

I assume the covered call ETFs do something similar to generate their higher yields, but probably don't do so weekly like the above example.

Appreciate any further thoughts on the above.. Thanks!!
by jolmscheid
Tue Oct 18, 2022 8:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: DBMF - Managed Futures Strategy ETF
Replies: 59
Views: 6861

Re: DBMF - Managed Futures Strategy ETF

Seiyafan, I have wondered the same thing about buying into DBMF or other alternative funds. Many have had large run ups and I am hesitant to buy at what may be the top. That said I have about 20% of my portfolio in “Alternative” strategies but am not adding any money presently. I carved out a portion of my portfolio to alternatives in early 2020 while in lock down, partially as a response to having a ton of time on my hands during that time to do research and partially because I felt it was obvious that all the government spending was going to cause inflation to rise and as a response the Fed was going to be forced to raise the Fed funds rate and other rates would follow suit causing bonds to get crushed. I follow the bogleheads philosophy...
by jolmscheid
Fri Oct 14, 2022 3:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dr. Wade Pfau - Dividend Paying Life Insurance
Replies: 36
Views: 2949

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau - Dividend Paying Life Insurance

Thank you for the replies! Very much appreciate the time you all take to help! We currently max out our 401ks and Roth's, but do not have a sizeable taxable account, so that sounds like it should be the next focus...and potentially an HSA. However, with 2 young kids, is an HSA advisable being we would need to switch to a high deductible plan?
by jolmscheid
Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dr. Wade Pfau - Dividend Paying Life Insurance
Replies: 36
Views: 2949

Dr. Wade Pfau - Dividend Paying Life Insurance

Hey all...I listened to a recent podcast on Dr. Wade Pfau talking about how implementing a dividend paying whole life insurance policy has shown to be a great, healthy diversifier to one's investment assets. I read The White Coat Investor's post on the subject from a few years ago, but am wondering others' thoughts on this, and how to look closer as to if this is an idea one should explore?

Thanks so much!
by jolmscheid
Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: DBMF - Managed Futures Strategy ETF
Replies: 59
Views: 6861

Re: DBMF - Managed Futures Strategy ETF

Ray Dalio has talked in the past on how uncorrelated assets are "the holy grail." I believe he said a basket of 15 uncorrelated assets is what he would shoot for...it seems like adding futures to a 3-fund portfolio could be in line with Dalio's premise.
by jolmscheid
Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: DBMF - Managed Futures Strategy ETF
Replies: 59
Views: 6861

Re: DBMF - Managed Futures Strategy ETF

Scaramanga007 wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 1:52 pm I love managed futures and have reallocated my portfolio to include them as a significant percentage. They perform as well as bonds under "normal" conditions, but seem to outperform bonds in a rising rate environment. I have a mix of KMLM, DBMF and CTA.
Do you have a mix to all 3 as they have different strategies? And, how do you know that these have done as well as bonds under normal conditions? I do not see many with long term track records...
by jolmscheid
Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: DBMF - Managed Futures Strategy ETF
Replies: 59
Views: 6861

Re: DMBF - Managed Futures Strategy ETF

The fund is DBMF not DMBF. You should probably listen to a podcast from the fund manager, Andrew Beer. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zfkL4GEbhE They replicate what other hedge fund managers are doing for a smaller fee. Almost all managed futures are doing well this year. Other funds to consider would include KMLM, CTA in etfs. ASFYX, PQTIX, QMHIX in mutual funds. Most managed futures have higher fees than index funds so you could say it is not a very Bogleheads way to invest. However, their performance has been comparable and even better than bond funds in a 60/40 portfolio: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2022&lastMonth=12&calendarAligne...
by jolmscheid
Wed Aug 31, 2022 8:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: After Maxing 401k/Roths....I-Bonds?
Replies: 10
Views: 1497

Re: After Maxing 401k/Roths....I-Bonds?

Outstanding replies, thank you. Yes, it seems that i-bonds for further tax deferred investing or "efficient tax funds" in a taxable account seem to be the avenue.
by jolmscheid
Tue Aug 30, 2022 7:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: After Maxing 401k/Roths....I-Bonds?
Replies: 10
Views: 1497

After Maxing 401k/Roths....I-Bonds?

Appreciate the insight on investing monies after maxing out self and spouse's 401k's and Roth IRA's. We do not have access to HSA's. We are 32 years old and have investments in S&P index funds. We also have emergency fund in cash. With the past few years of market action, as well as talks of high inflation/low expected returns over the next decade (yes, I know, nobody knows what the future holds), we have been looking at a safer "guaranteed" route of putting funds to work. I have read the Megathread here, and is very helpful. However, I am having some trouble deciphering if I should even be considering i-bonds at our age...We have talked about having the option to slow down or work part time by 45-50 years old, when our mortga...
by jolmscheid
Sun Aug 21, 2022 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Assets Uncorrelated With Stocks During Downturns
Replies: 89
Views: 8951

Re: Assets Uncorrelated With Stocks During Downturns

CTA trend following has had diversification in the past, albeit widely variable results. Standpoint has a fund called BLNDX for example that mixes equities and CTA trend following...fees on the fund are high, but gives a potential idea of uncorrelated assets.
by jolmscheid
Sat Aug 20, 2022 5:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Doing the "Big Things" Right
Replies: 59
Views: 8204

Re: Doing the "Big Things" Right

CletusCaddy wrote: Fri Aug 19, 2022 8:55 pm You missed the Biggest Thing - maximize your income.
Thanks, but it was listed as the last bullet point
by jolmscheid
Fri Aug 19, 2022 7:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Doing the "Big Things" Right
Replies: 59
Views: 8204

Doing the "Big Things" Right

I have the mindset that if one can do the "big things" right for saving, then there is more flexibility with the smaller things....for example, if I can keep the "big 3" expenses under control (housing, transportation, food), then I don't need to think as much about the smaller things.

While I do feel I have housing, transportation, and food in line (always can do better of course), would love to hear others' saving hacks....here are what come to mind:

- Checking on rates annually for mortgage insurance, car insurance
- Buying generic
- Cutting cable
- Internet provider deals?
- "Lesser known" Mobile phone plans (Republic, mint, etc
- Increasing income to be able to save more
by jolmscheid
Sun Jul 17, 2022 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Side Income --> "Pushing the Envelope"
Replies: 33
Views: 2912

Re: Investment Side Income --> "Pushing the Envelope"

WillRetire wrote: Sun Jul 17, 2022 8:26 am Junk bonds. Income is generally taxed at ordinary income rates. Normally, it is best to buy these in a retirement account to avoid taxes, but there's no law against buying them in a brokerage account in order to generate income.

Good luck!
Thanks!
by jolmscheid
Sun Jul 17, 2022 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Side Income --> "Pushing the Envelope"
Replies: 33
Views: 2912

Re: Investment Side Income --> "Pushing the Envelope"

Jack FFR1846 wrote: Sun Jul 17, 2022 8:19 am This video made me think of you. Fairly passive income. Low cost to get in. With a partner, both can have their full time jobs and still bring in a good income. Coin op laundry.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVCJ-_VpGrY
Thanks Jack!
by jolmscheid
Sun Jul 17, 2022 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Side Income --> "Pushing the Envelope"
Replies: 33
Views: 2912

Re: Investment Side Income --> "Pushing the Envelope"

I’ll give you my quick 50k windfall story (which is how I ended up on Bogleheads). I received a small windfall in March 2021, I put 50k into a separate investment account that was basically going to be my “reach” portfolio with all these “cool” companies that had been on my list but hadn’t bought. Things like Pinterest, Skillz, Teladoc, GoodRx, Lemonade, among others. Well, as it turns out even though overall the companies share prices were a bit lower than their peaks in February 2021 they were still tremendously overpriced. By the end of 2021 50k was 37k and now current account value is ~22k. I’m not selling but the recovery, if ever, will be a long one. The upside is I’ve switched to index funds and just view it as a really expensive in...
by jolmscheid
Sat Jul 16, 2022 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Side Income --> "Pushing the Envelope"
Replies: 33
Views: 2912

Re: Investment Side Income --> "Pushing the Envelope"

1. I'd read the "7 habits of highly effective people" by Stephen Covey. Apply these principles if you are not already. Specialize what you do as much as possible to be the absolute best at what you do. Also read "4 hour workweek" by Tim Ferris if you haven't already. Two of my favorite books. Not sure if they align on all points or not...I don't think they do they are different people but two of my favorite books. 2. Invest your money according to the wiki here on Bogleheads. 3. Invest other time in family and community as I'm sure you already are. At some point, find peace with where you are and what you have accomplished. Live each day and focus less on retiring early. Try to make it so your life is what you want, not...
by jolmscheid
Sat Jul 16, 2022 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Side Income --> "Pushing the Envelope"
Replies: 33
Views: 2912

Re: Investment Side Income --> "Pushing the Envelope"

Hello all! So thankful for this community and the insight it provides! I would really appreciate some thoughts.... Right now, I am 32 years old with the goal of being financially independent in 15 years or less. I currently have most of my investments in low cost index funds in tax advantaged accounts. My spouse and I attempt to max them out each year (approx 35% savings rate). I am wanting to create a side income stream through the stock market that will "push the envelope" seeking higher returns with a basket of my investment capital that I would then funnel returns back into my long-term buy and hold investments. I am not looking at a second job,, real estate,, or starting a business (I currently own my own business, so this &...
by jolmscheid
Sat Jul 16, 2022 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Side Income --> "Pushing the Envelope"
Replies: 33
Views: 2912

Re: Investment Side Income --> "Pushing the Envelope"

Hello all! So thankful for this community and the insight it provides! I would really appreciate some thoughts.... Right now, I am 32 years old with the goal of being financially independent in 15 years or less. I currently have most of my investments in low cost index funds in tax advantaged accounts. My spouse and I attempt to max them out each year (approx 35% savings rate). I am wanting to create a side income stream through the stock market that will "push the envelope" seeking higher returns with a basket of my investment capital that I would then funnel returns back into my long-term buy and hold investments. I am not looking at a second job,, real estate,, or starting a business (I currently own my own business, so this &...
by jolmscheid
Sat Jul 16, 2022 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Side Income --> "Pushing the Envelope"
Replies: 33
Views: 2912

Re: Side Income --> "Pushing the Envelope"

Are you looking for a second job or do you just want to shift your investments to a higher risk category? Often with a second job, finding a way to do more of what you already do is the easiest way. Some choose rentals or start a business. If you just want to dabble in higher risk investments, I would suggest you don't but many people here talk about having "play" money accounts with all the standard stuff from crypto to picking hot stocks etc. Go to 100% stock index funds if you want. If you have a mortgage you are already using margin/leverage. Think about how much can you afford to lose on the risk side before you commit. Mike, correct...not looking at a second job but rather shifting a portion to a more speculative investment...
by jolmscheid
Sat Jul 16, 2022 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Side Income --> "Pushing the Envelope"
Replies: 33
Views: 2912

Re: Side Income --> "Pushing the Envelope"

Hello all! So thankful for this community and the insight it provides! I would really appreciate some thoughts.... Right now, I am 32 years old with the goal of being financially independent in 15 years or less. I currently have most of my investments in low cost index funds in tax advantaged accounts. My spouse and I attempt to max them out each year. I am wanting to create a side income stream that will "push the envelope" seeking higher returns with a basket of my investment capital that I would then funnel returns back into my long-term buy and hold investments. This is with the understanding that this is more speculative on nature and risky. Would appreciate ideas or thoughts from others who have, or currently do something s...
by jolmscheid
Sat Jul 16, 2022 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Side Income --> "Pushing the Envelope"
Replies: 33
Views: 2912

Investment Side Income --> "Pushing the Envelope"

Hello all! So thankful for this community and the insight it provides! I would really appreciate some thoughts.... Right now, I am 32 years old with the goal of being financially independent in 15 years or less. I currently have most of my investments in low cost index funds in tax advantaged accounts. My spouse and I attempt to max them out each year (approx 35% savings rate). I am wanting to create a side income stream through the stock market that will "push the envelope" seeking higher returns with a basket of my investment capital that I would then funnel returns back into my long-term buy and hold investments. I am not looking at a second job,, real estate,, or starting a business (I currently own my own business, so this &q...
by jolmscheid
Mon Jan 17, 2022 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Classical Charting - Used for Hundreds of Years?
Replies: 17
Views: 1684

Re: Classical Charting - Used for Hundreds of Years?

Thank you for all the replies! Very much appreciated. All of my investments are in VTI and have been indexed for all of my investing career.

The "charting" was brought up as I found it interesting that this was used for different assets back through history, let alone Tudor Jones using it (not sure if he does any longer).

Regardless, appreciate the responses!
by jolmscheid
Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Classical Charting - Used for Hundreds of Years?
Replies: 17
Views: 1684

Classical Charting - Used for Hundreds of Years?

Came across a few podcasts where Peter Brandt and Gareth Soloway talk about their trading career and how charting has delivered all of his success in foreign, stocks, crypto; and how classical charting has been used for hundreds of years to trade assets.

Wondering with all of the technology, bots, big market players, etc if classical charting will continue to provide an edge?

I personally do not have the time/know-how to carry this out, but find the topic very interesting as some well known investors have used it to be very successful in stocks/crypto (Peter Brandt, Gareth Soloway, Paul Tudor-Jones, etc).
by jolmscheid
Wed Aug 25, 2021 7:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Progressive auto - the honeymoon's over
Replies: 53
Views: 6699

Re: Progressive auto - the honeymoon's over

lthenderson wrote: Tue Aug 24, 2021 10:24 am Instead of national insurance companies, I went with one that only sells insurance in parts of six states here in the Midwest. The service has always been excellent and I've never found another company that could beat their rates. They keep rates low by avoiding selling insurance in states that get lots of disasters like wildfires, hurricanes, tornadoes and such.
Interesting. I am in the Midwest. Would you mind sharing?
by jolmscheid
Sat Jan 16, 2021 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leveraged SMA200 Strategy Back-tested 1929 - 2019
Replies: 185
Views: 39465

Re: Leveraged SMA200 Strategy Back-tested 1929 - 2019

Is there a way to find what the highest % above the 200 DMA the S&P 500 has ever been for example? This would allow one to see potential Drawdowns for this type of strategy before triggering to go to a "non-risk" asset.
by jolmscheid
Sat Jul 25, 2020 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Parity: When Stocks "Zig," What is the Best "Zag"?
Replies: 31
Views: 2363

Re: Risk Parity: When Stocks "Zig," What is the Best "Zag"?

Brianmcg321 wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:12 pm
permport wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 5:42 pm Buy long Treasury bonds along with gold and cash.

You may also want to consider international assets, bitcoin, and silver, and factors in your equities.
This.

OP, read up on the Permanent Portfolio.
Good to know. The permanent portfolio then is an example of risk parity?
by jolmscheid
Fri Jul 24, 2020 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Parity: When Stocks "Zig," What is the Best "Zag"?
Replies: 31
Views: 2363

Re: Risk Parity: When Stocks "Zig," What is the Best "Zag"?

snailderby wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 6:02 pm I'm not sure if this answers your question, but...
During the 10 largest S&P 500 drawdowns in the period since the index began, Treasury bonds have outperformed the AGG index in eight of those 10 (see table below).
Source: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/art ... s-you-need
This covers a lot of what I was looking for.
by jolmscheid
Fri Jul 24, 2020 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Parity: When Stocks "Zig," What is the Best "Zag"?
Replies: 31
Views: 2363

Risk Parity: When Stocks "Zig," What is the Best "Zag"?

Hello all. I see a lot of talk about risk parity and wanting to have an asset "zig" when another asset "zags." With stocks, the general consensus is to have a total bond holding that will hopefully offset when stocks when they are in a downturn. Is there a way to look at how a total bond fund would compare to say all Treasuries when stocks are going down?

I can see how total bond, treasuries, etc perform with a stock portfolio of different allocations in portfolio visualizer, but would be nice to see how total bond / treasuries perform only when stocks are in a downturn. Any thoughts/insight on this?
by jolmscheid
Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14356
Views: 1988713

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Just food for thought, I decided to simulate several of strategies via python as a pet project described in the threads: .........................cagr (%)......sharpe........max_drawdown (%, based on daily) SP500x3 Baseline.......28.3.........0.7...............-76.8 60/40 Portfolio.........31.4.........0.9...............-61.6 VolatilityPortfolio......33.5.........1.3...............-43.3 MomentumPortfolio....30.7.........1.3...............-45.9 AdaptiveAssetAll........34.5.........1.3...............-43.4 https://i.postimg.cc/7L7nHJXH/UPRO-TMF-Simulated.png Note: Volatility is measured using 22 days, momentum is measured using 6 months and adaptive asset allocation is based on minimal variance from the link below. https://www.investresolve.c...
by jolmscheid
Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Notifications for Rebalance Bands
Replies: 22
Views: 2685

Re: Vanguard Notifications for Rebalance Bands

Here is another comment on notification: If one's portfolio and AA is in balance today, then it was probably in balance yesterday and the day before and it will be in balance tomorrow and the next day. The only time your portfolio will go out of balance from day to day is if there is large movement in the stock markets. So if there was a tool to indicate that one's AA was out of balance, then that will be sent on the day of a large market movement. Therefore it follows that if one has their broker send them a notification on any day of a large market movement, then one can go look on those days to see if their portfolio needs rebalancing. Vanguard lets one set such alerts pretty easily. So you get an e-mail from Vanguard, then you login an...
by jolmscheid
Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Notifications for Rebalance Bands
Replies: 22
Views: 2685

Re: Vanguard Notifications for Rebalance Bands

Mr.BB wrote: Sun Jul 19, 2020 2:39 pm I use Morningstar X-ray and put all our accounts from 401 to Roth etc in there even though they are from different companies. It gives me a clear picture of our AA and when we break the 5- 7% band I just rebalance. Usually just moving money from either the global bond fund to our total stock market fund or vice versa in our 401k.
Does Morningstar x-ray send a notification?
by jolmscheid
Sun Jul 19, 2020 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Notifications for Rebalance Bands
Replies: 22
Views: 2685

Re: Vanguard Notifications for Rebalance Bands

Silk McCue wrote: Sun Jul 19, 2020 8:04 am That's not something that you can have generated automatically by Vanguard. You will just need to check your holdings on a schedule that fits your needs and do the math. You could certainly utilize a simple spreadsheet to make that simpler depending upon the complexity of your holdings. This can be further automated by having the spreadsheet retrieve the share prices and do that math in a more automated fashion.

Cheers
Makes sense, thank you. Do you have insight as to how I would research building a spreadsheet like this?
by jolmscheid
Sun Jul 19, 2020 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Notifications for Rebalance Bands
Replies: 22
Views: 2685

Vanguard Notifications for Rebalance Bands

Hello all. If one is implementing rebalancing bands as part of their investment strategy, is there any way to have a notification of when these bands have been met?

I am with Vanguard and don't see any option for this.

Thanks for the help!
by jolmscheid
Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14356
Views: 1988713

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

SVT wrote: Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:20 pm
nisiprius wrote: Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:28 pm Any chance of a quarterly update of the performance chart in the initial posting?
Since he's not here anymore (or at least for the time being), I can give you an idea, based on my own performance. It's obviously going to vary based on timing of rebalancing and exact allocation (I stuck with the OG allocation for months before going 50/50 while OP is 55/45) but I started just a week or so after OP. I doubt the numbers are too far off (plus or minus 5%?). I'm up 115% as of today.
And that is using UPRO/TMF (no TQQQ added in)?
by jolmscheid
Wed Jul 08, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14356
Views: 1988713

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

That's not entirely true. This would be 100% of his investable wealth rather than 15% even though he's using PLSDX
[/quote]

Are there any posts where hedgefundie states is in all PSLDX outside of this strategy, and why?
by jolmscheid
Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 2259
Views: 269146

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

From my observations, many Bogleheads do a reasonably good job of constructing the equity portion of their portfolio. A simple globally diversified mix of US and non-US total stock market funds accomplishes the majority of diversification benefits available to an equity investor. However, it seems to me that precious few of these same Bogleheads are allocating their fixed income allocations in a manner congruent with modern financial knowledge. This is especially true for young accumulators, who seem just as prone as retirees to rely on milquetoast short- and intermediate-term bond funds when they should almost certainly be favoring long-term bonds instead. Long-term bond funds not only offer superior diversification, but they also minimiz...
by jolmscheid
Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 2259
Views: 269146

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

With this strategy, it seems that the consensus is this could be utilized well during accumulation. Does this strategy still hold water during withdrawal phase?

Example, if one is at 40/60 stocks/bonds ratio at retirement, are LT treasuries at 20% still advised here?
by jolmscheid
Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was Vanguard's LifeStrategy Funds ACTIVELY Managed in the Past?
Replies: 13
Views: 1607

Re: Was Vanguard's LifeStrategy Funds ACTIVELY Managed in the Past?

02nz wrote: Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:43 pm
KlangFool wrote: Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:41 pm A portion of the Lifestrategy fund was in an asset allocation fund. That fund was ONLY invested in stock and bond index. The active part was it can change the ratio between the stock and the bond index fund. It did not help or boast the Lifestrategy fund's performance. Hence, it was dropped.
Looks like that entire fund (VAAPX) was closed at the end of the 2011. The strategy, as I recall, was all market-timing - moving in and out of the stock market.
So, to get a better idea of apples to apples to say a 3-fund portfolio, one would need to compare from 2012 onward?
by jolmscheid
Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was Vanguard's LifeStrategy Funds ACTIVELY Managed in the Past?
Replies: 13
Views: 1607

Was Vanguard's LifeStrategy Funds ACTIVELY Managed in the Past?

Hello All.

I believe based on my research on this forum that the Vanguard Lifestrategy funds used to be actively managed...is that correct? I ask as it is difficult to compare these funds then to say a 3-fund portfolio in terms of their results. It is pretty evident in Portfolio Visualizer that the Lifestrategy funds have very much underperformed...I would assume this is due to a mix of them being actively managed in the past, and having a relatively larger allocation to international (which has underperformed as well)?
by jolmscheid
Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14356
Views: 1988713

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I can't speak for hedgefundie, but I started last september and am up 30% (original 55/45 with only one rebalance that wasn't adding additional funds). Started last august and up 20%. Just thought I'd check in since I just hit the big yellow rebalance button. I've been following the Adventure with a portion of my portfolio for quite awhile, but I didn't go all-in until the end of last year so note that my returns reflect that. Also note that I contribute regularly so all returns are money-weighted. I'm up ~25% all-time, since March 29th, 2019 (on average, ~50% of my portfolio has been allocated to the adventure during this time, the rest tracked unleveraged total world stock pretty closely). I'm up ~26% in the past quarter, since March 30t...
by jolmscheid
Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14356
Views: 1988713

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Lee_WSP wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:06 pm
jolmscheid wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:24 pm
RayKeynes wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:47 am @ HedgeFundie or @ all: What is the historically best split-up between TMF and UPRO? I think its around 40/60 (TMF/UPRO), or am I wrong?

I was thinking of going a little bit more "agressive" with a UPRO/TMF approach of 80/20 above SMA235 abd with 45 / 55 below SMA235. What do you guys think?
I like the idea of utilizing a moving average of some sort in an attempt to cut down on the more drastic drawdowns.
You would've been whipsawed in '18 & '20.
Good point on the whipsaws...I would think having a buffer band in place of say 1-2% above/below may help with this.
by jolmscheid
Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14356
Views: 1988713

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

So, UPRO/TMF re-leverage daily. With the circuit breaker rules in place, the market can drop by a Max of 20% in a trading day. This would equate to a 60% drop for the 3x leveraged fund(s), if this were to happen...so, with re-leveraging daily, there is virtually no way for the 3x leveraged funds to go to zero. Not saying that we want this to happen, but for this to go "bust" the market and long term Treasuries would both have to drop over 15% in one day. Is this correct? So, when looking at PV, and the S&P shows a Max drawdown for example of -50% let's say, this strategy would still be "alive" due to the daily re-leveraging? Even if both the S&P 500 and long-term US treasuries drop 15% in one day, you won't nece...
by jolmscheid
Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14356
Views: 1988713

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

So, UPRO/TMF re-leverage daily. With the circuit breaker rules in place, the market can drop by a Max of 20% in a trading day. This would equate to a 60% drop for the 3x leveraged fund(s), if this were to happen...so, with re-leveraging daily, there is virtually no way for the 3x leveraged funds to go to zero.

Not saying that we want this to happen, but for this to go "bust" the market and long term Treasuries would both have to drop over 15% in one day. Is this correct? So, when looking at PV, and the S&P shows a Max drawdown for example of -50% let's say, this strategy would still be "alive" due to the daily re-leveraging?
by jolmscheid
Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14356
Views: 1988713

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

RayKeynes wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:47 am @ HedgeFundie or @ all: What is the historically best split-up between TMF and UPRO? I think its around 40/60 (TMF/UPRO), or am I wrong?

I was thinking of going a little bit more "agressive" with a UPRO/TMF approach of 80/20 above SMA235 abd with 45 / 55 below SMA235. What do you guys think?
I like the idea of utilizing a moving average of some sort in an attempt to cut down on the more drastic drawdowns.
by jolmscheid
Sun Jun 21, 2020 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14356
Views: 1988713

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

The timing models are an interesting twist, I'm using inverse volatility because it's simple, seems to drive down volatility more than target volatility in practice, and is somewhat more friendly to a taxable account (no months where it goes 100% UPRO or 100% TMF like the others). It works best if the assets all have similar volatilities, otherwise it'll just put a heavy weight on the lowest one, even if the returns are also low. One other thing worth mentioning: TMF's annual return was only 1.53% from 2012-2018 as the 10 year ended up about +0.5 during that interval. So that may be a good period to backtest on for those worried about poor bond returns going forward. The good news is 55/45 still does well. The Sharpe ratio is in line with ...