Search found 448 matches

by dogagility
Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I invest 100k into a total index or do it slowly
Replies: 50
Views: 4852

Re: Should I invest 100k into a total index or do it slowly

When you go to the casino do you go to the first dice table you see and put your entire bankroll on the pass line (or come if a point has already been established)? Your answer may help guide you in your investment decision. Point taken, but at the casino the odds are tilted in favor of the house, ...
by dogagility
Sat Jun 08, 2019 5:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on 401k AA/Investments
Replies: 5
Views: 505

Re: Advice on 401k AA/Investments

I would go option 2. Nobody can predict the future returns of any single fund; the best you can do (and the only thing you can control) is to keep expenses low. Here's a sobering read regarding the active/index debate: https://www.ifa.com/articles/despite_brief_reprieve_2018_spiva_report_reveals_act...
by dogagility
Fri Jun 07, 2019 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses
Replies: 1763
Views: 278006

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses

Allow me to vent about ME/BoA. I recently took advantage of their IRA transfer bonus program. Signed up, transferred 200K into an Edge IRA, opened up a BoA checking account, opened a Premium Rewards credit card. To increase the credit card rewards bonus, I wanted to be enrolled in their Preferred R...
by dogagility
Thu Jun 06, 2019 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Convince me not to try to time the market
Replies: 27
Views: 2042

Re: Convince me not to try to time the market

OP, Convince me that you should time the market... The market is at an all-time high the majority of the time. The only thing I am pretty confident in about this investing thing is that the equity market has an upward trajectory, especially over your investing horizon (50 years). Don't be afraid and...
by dogagility
Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Just Got a Call From Fidelity
Replies: 55
Views: 7668

Re: Just Got a Call From Fidelity

bck63 wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:25 pm
So, a good experience. And in fact I was a bit worried. Just didn't want to admit it. Very happy with Fidelity so far.
Much like my experience when I've been in contact with a Fidelity rep (twice in the last three years). :sharebeer
by dogagility
Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long does it take to come out of a major downtunr?
Replies: 30
Views: 3017

Re: How long does it take to come out of a major downtunr?

What's the chance of my Total World Index Fund not recovering? When you say "not recovering" are you talking about a specific time span? Yes... a long time; but I think I already know the answer to my question. Little to none. And if it doesn't recover, then I have much bigger things to worry about...
by dogagility
Sat Jun 01, 2019 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long does it take to come out of a major downtunr?
Replies: 30
Views: 3017

Re: How long does it take to come out of a major downtunr?

What's the chance of my Total World Index Fund not recovering?
by dogagility
Wed May 29, 2019 5:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is this a good long-term portfolio?
Replies: 37
Views: 3063

Re: Is this a good long-term portfolio?

Hi Hungrywave, Your family has a lot of human capitol (two physicians) in a stable profession. Assuming you don't need your investment money for a long time period, you can take on more "risk" than the average Boglehead. 100% stock is a fine allocation, in my opinion. I personally did that for about...
by dogagility
Sat May 25, 2019 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here
Replies: 151
Views: 14671

Re: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here

And 2008-09 taught a "lesson" that bear markets are short and followed by fast recoveries - but that's not at all a given. From: https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/26/your-money/stocks-and-bonds/26stra.html. Time to recover from a market low. "In fact, according to a Hulbert Financial Digest study of ...
by dogagility
Fri May 24, 2019 6:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I have $100k in savings. Dollar cost averaging or lump sum investment?
Replies: 13
Views: 1597

Re: I have $100k in savings. Dollar cost averaging or lump sum investment?

Won't you be bummed if the market crawls up 10% slowly over the DCA period and then crashes the day you are fully invested? If you had carefully saved for 30 years in a 401k and had $2.5M at retirement, would you move it all to cash and then redeploy it via DCA? Of course not. New money is no diffe...
by dogagility
Wed May 22, 2019 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here
Replies: 151
Views: 14671

Re: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here

yousha wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 4:50 pm
At 80 years of age, I have 75% in equities. Portfolio is $5.7 million. Doing exceptionally well.
Love your AA, Yousha! If I have any money to invest when I reach my eighties, that's the AA I'd like to have. (I won't have anywhere near your stash....). :beer
by dogagility
Wed May 22, 2019 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: An Advisor Refusing To Sell Investments
Replies: 65
Views: 7993

Re: An Advisor Refusing To Sell Investments

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 11:35 am
dogagility wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 6:01 am
Life lesson #27. Don't inject money management into friendships.
Advisors are trained to be your friend and pretend they like you. Not unlike bar girls who hustle drinks.
True, but in this case, the advisor actually was a friend.
by dogagility
Wed May 22, 2019 6:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regression to the Mean - and our money
Replies: 16
Views: 1597

Re: Regression to the Mean - and our money

I am currently reading Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow, and the chapter on regression to the mean sparks me to open this thread and ask for some opinions. To date, index investing triumphs over active investing based on probability. Will we, as regression to the mean suggests, perform worse off t...
by dogagility
Wed May 22, 2019 6:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: An Advisor Refusing To Sell Investments
Replies: 65
Views: 7993

Re: An Advisor Refusing To Sell Investments

Life lesson #27. Don't inject money management into friendships.
by dogagility
Mon May 20, 2019 7:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car repairs: what to do next time
Replies: 42
Views: 2602

Re: Car repairs: what to do next time

So I may have done a stupid thing. I have a 2005 Pontiac Vibe (that I still love by the way) with 160k on it. I just had a bunch of maintenance stuff done to it: oil change, air filter, oil filter and cabin air filter change, tire rotation and balance, new front roters and brakes, new rear drums an...
by dogagility
Thu May 16, 2019 5:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If you are already wealthy, what keeps you motivated?
Replies: 101
Views: 11607

Re: If you are already wealthy, what keeps you motivated?

Money and wealth aren't typically long term, satisfying motivators. I suggest you read Enough by Jack Bogle and How to Think About Money by Jonathan Clements.
by dogagility
Thu May 16, 2019 5:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard or Fidelity (advisor support)
Replies: 19
Views: 1571

Re: Vanguard or Fidelity (advisor support)

For a novice investor relying on an investment company for support is a mistake. The first step is to educate yourself by reading, going to "Getting Started" on the Wiki, and reading and asking here. That said, such help as Vanguard VPAS might be useful. I would be a little wary of Fidelity as you ...
by dogagility
Wed May 15, 2019 8:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help my broker is trying to freak me out
Replies: 94
Views: 13923

Re: Help my broker is trying to freak me out

Almond wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 7:20 pm
My partner wants to know when I got my series seven license, and is still skeptical about doing it ourselves.
You can absolutely do this. Read the links given by Sandtrap, and have your partner read this thread.
by dogagility
Wed May 15, 2019 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help my broker is trying to freak me out
Replies: 94
Views: 13923

Re: Help my broker is trying to freak me out

Also I just did a calculation using nerd wallet if I leave $600k at 1% AUM fee, not including fund fees, over 15 years the total cost is $208k. WOW is that correct. If so why do most people not mange their own funds. Which is the question my partner keeps asking and I don’t know how to answer Absol...
by dogagility
Sat May 11, 2019 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help my broker is trying to freak me out
Replies: 94
Views: 13923

Re: Help my broker is trying to freak me out

For those of you with more experience is he right? Am I mad to rip the band aid off? No, he is not right, and no, you're not mad to rip the band aid off. Many of the funds he has you in have a very high expense ratio (about 1%). No doubt, he is also charging you a 1% assets under management (AUM) f...
by dogagility
Wed May 08, 2019 5:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?
Replies: 219
Views: 23751

Re: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?

Early 50s. Might leave current job prior to age 60, be a traveling nomad with my wife, and then perhaps make a bit of money afterwards. Was 100% equity indexes from 1995 to age 50. Now 82/18. I had/have this "risky" AA because I'm not worried about the balleyhooed "black swan" equity meltdowns discu...
by dogagility
Tue May 07, 2019 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 45 and 43 years old, 2 kids: Please advice on Retirement/Asset Allocation/Tax Efficiency/Loan Prepayment
Replies: 10
Views: 2079

Re: 45 and 43 years old, 2 kids: Please advice on Retirement/Asset Allocation/Tax Efficiency/Loan Prepayment

Goals 3. Reduce risk in the next 3-5 years for downward protection as more and more news/agreement has been appearing that there may be a recession in the next 1-2 years. Welcome! This smacks of trying to time the market and should not be a goal. Do not pay attention to financial "news/agreement" b...
by dogagility
Tue May 07, 2019 4:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I tried to fire my financial advisor of 12 years today...
Replies: 127
Views: 13561

Re: I tried to fire my financial advisor of 12 years today...

DanMahowny wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 10:42 am
I wish I had a financial advisor . . . . . so I could fire them.
:beer :D
by dogagility
Mon May 06, 2019 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11012
Views: 1923062

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

dknightd wrote:
Mon May 06, 2019 7:49 pm
wake me up if US stocks go down 20%
Wake me up when stocks are down for ten years
by dogagility
Fri May 03, 2019 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets
Replies: 44
Views: 2500

Re: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets

Appreciate the good points. Especially the issue seems to be: when will interest rates rise? The market seems to think not within 10 years. Fed tried to "kick the habit" earlier this year but we're in pretty deep to the addiction. If you make the call now and sit on your hands for 10 years it might...
by dogagility
Fri May 03, 2019 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 967
Views: 97068

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Well I'm a happy boy (happy boy)
Well I'm a happy boy (happy boy)
Hubba hubba hubba hubba hubba
by dogagility
Fri May 03, 2019 5:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I go to a Fidelity Office to Set up Account?
Replies: 39
Views: 2778

Re: Should I go to a Fidelity Office to Set up Account?

I've been to two Fidelity offices a few times in different locales. I agree with others that the Fidelity folks were professional, courteous, and didn't push me into or suggest any non-BH-approved investments. Of course, I knew what I wanted going in.
by dogagility
Wed May 01, 2019 4:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses
Replies: 1763
Views: 278006

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses

Allow me to vent about ME/BoA. I recently took advantage of their IRA transfer bonus program. Signed up, transferred 200K into an Edge IRA, opened up a BoA checking account, opened a Premium Rewards credit card. To increase the credit card rewards bonus, I wanted to be enrolled in their Preferred Re...
by dogagility
Mon Apr 29, 2019 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 967
Views: 97068

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

PS. Stocks do (and will continue to) soar! :beer Then please kindly explain why we have the Stocks in free fall thread? :mrgreen: Fact 1: Investing in stocks is risky. You may lose your principal. Fact 2: Murphy's law: what can happen, will happen. A market crash of 50% or more can happen, and it w...
by dogagility
Mon Apr 29, 2019 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 785
Views: 77736

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Carol88888 wrote:
Mon Apr 29, 2019 2:02 pm
Still short?
6' :D
by dogagility
Mon Apr 29, 2019 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 967
Views: 97068

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

PS. Stocks do (and will continue to) soar! :beer Then please kindly explain why we have the Stocks in free fall thread? :mrgreen: Fact 1: Investing in stocks is risky. You may lose your principal. Fact 2: Murphy's law: what can happen, will happen. A market crash of 50% or more can happen, and it w...
by dogagility
Sun Apr 28, 2019 5:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 42 and 39 years old, 2 kids, Please advice on Retirement/ Asset Allocation/ Tuition
Replies: 28
Views: 3244

Re: 42 and 39 years old, 2 kids, Please advice on Retirement/ Asset Allocation/ Tuition

Married with 2 kids (8 years old and 2 years old). Income: $135K (Him) + $50K (Her, part-time work, full-time Mom) 7/ We will like to pay half of our two kids tuition down the road (about $80K - $100K total contribution). We have been contributing 10K a year for the last two years, and we plan to c...
by dogagility
Sat Apr 27, 2019 5:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ~150 K: Lump Sum vs DCA
Replies: 11
Views: 894

Re: ~150 K: Lump Sum vs DCA

Yes. Still holds true.
by dogagility
Sat Apr 27, 2019 5:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are the cons of always being a one parent working household?
Replies: 134
Views: 8401

Re: What are the cons of always being a one parent working household?

Here are the downsides I see: Lower social security check This statement may not be true. Unless the stay-at-home spouse can earn enough to exceed the 50% benefit from the working spouse, it may not matter. So the lower income spouse can claim 1/2 of the higher income spouses earnings? I thought la...
by dogagility
Sat Apr 27, 2019 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 967
Views: 97068

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Market timing and keeping dry powder are investing fallacies. It may be ill-advised, but it's not a fallacy, which I define as a false belief. Rather, it's something most investors are not good at. Probably because non-professional investors tend to act too much emotion. Warren Buffet has been keep...
by dogagility
Sat Apr 27, 2019 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 967
Views: 97068

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

..there is just no way to know whether a 10% drop will lead to a much larger drop or will simply reverse. The pessimists also don't look at the statistics to understand that the latter is usually the case and the former is a much rarer event. If "the latter is usually the case," market timing would...
by dogagility
Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 967
Views: 97068

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

DaftInvestor wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:42 pm
I've got one friend who sold in October and another that sold in December since a big crash of 25% - 50% was imminent -- and here we are at new highs again across many of the indexes! Buy and Hold baby!
To the moon, Baby! To the moon! :sharebeer
by dogagility
Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Getting into investing
Replies: 17
Views: 1238

Re: Getting into investing

You're 18, starting college soon and state you will need to take out loans to pay for college. I suggest not investing your money in equity (i.e. stocks). Instead use this money to pay for college and don't pay interest on the student loans.
by dogagility
Wed Apr 24, 2019 5:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Invest 529 or taxable account?
Replies: 55
Views: 3825

Re: Invest 529 or taxable account?

For most Bogleheads (i.e. white collar earners), the FAFSA is practically meaningless. As stated above, the "aid" the majority of Bogleheads will receive from the federal government will be in the form of loans, not (Pell) grants. Unless a Boglehead has enough money to retire a couple of years prior...
by dogagility
Tue Apr 23, 2019 5:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 100% stocks, looking to lock-in gains and maybe introduce bonds
Replies: 9
Views: 1514

Re: 100% stocks, looking to lock-in gains and maybe introduce bonds

It is always appropriate to evaluate what one's risk taking should be given how one's situation evolves. I don't think it is helpful to appeal to locking in gains as this is not necessary and really also not so. Getting risk right is sufficient justification, and over time the assumption is that th...
by dogagility
Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most Insightful Charts
Replies: 40
Views: 3693

Re: Most Insightful Charts

I've been thinking about these lately. Two charts: S&P 500 P/E ratios 1875 to 1980 and 1981 to 2017. It really seems like around 1980 the US stock market entered a new regime. Since that time P/E ratios have been both more volatile and trending upward (the linear trendline has doubled!) https://i.i...
by dogagility
Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When to prioritize funding 529?
Replies: 31
Views: 2387

Re: When to prioritize funding 529?

jjwpls wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:21 pm
The state where I live in provides tax deduction for 529 investment, but the amount is very limited (<= $1,000, if I recall it correctly).
I would suggest investing in the 529 to an amount that at least captures the full tax deduction.
by dogagility
Mon Apr 22, 2019 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When to prioritize funding 529?
Replies: 31
Views: 2387

Re: When to prioritize funding 529?

Assuming you decide to pay 100% of college for your child, how do you know how much to set the goal amount for? Assuming you aren't divorced, own a business, or are a farmer, use the Net Price Calculator to estimate college expenses. This calculator is quite accurate for the average family. Each co...
by dogagility
Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 214
Views: 13872

Re: Market timers thread

I posted my trading history on the second page of this topic. Interesting. Thanks for posting. What is the time-weighted average asset allocation (equity:fixed income) of your portfolio since your started this investment strategy? Is it the 60:40 you used as the Boglehead comparator? (Hard to tell ...
by dogagility
Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 214
Views: 13872

Re: Market timers thread

I would argue that Buffett's main talent was picking good companies, acquiring them (or big chunks of them), and enabling them to grow to their full potential. Not market timing. Bingo. This is how Buffet makes money investing: http://money.com/money/4466517/warren-buffett-dow-chemical-stock/. Not ...
by dogagility
Sat Apr 20, 2019 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 214
Views: 13872

Re: Market timers thread

Buffett already did this.....and currently has record levels of cash, $100B, sitting in dry powder.... Although you'll often hear him tell everyone else they should just buy-n-hold an SP500 index fund, independent of valuation levels..... And some people actually blindly follow what he says instead...
by dogagility
Sat Apr 20, 2019 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 214
Views: 13872

Re: Market timers thread

Buffett already did this.....and currently has record levels of cash, $100B, sitting in dry powder.... Although you'll often hear him tell everyone else they should just buy-n-hold an SP500 index fund, independent of valuation levels..... And some people actually blindly follow what he says instead...
by dogagility
Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is the disaster scenario for stocks a reason not to invest or pull out of the market?
Replies: 94
Views: 7122

Re: Is the disaster scenario for stocks a reason not to invest or pull out of the market?

Bogleheads are a very pessimistic group of investors.... At least many of the most active ones seem supremely so, even though John Bogle's guidance is based on optimism about the future. Agree. Many active Bogleheads continually bring up the idea of investing against Black Swan events... the entire...
by dogagility
Thu Apr 18, 2019 4:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11012
Views: 1923062

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

This thread is all noise basically. Arm chair experts and market timers. Yes this is 100% noise. Stay the course. Actually this whole forum is noise, because the answer to just about any question is "stay the course". Stay the course :D Read the course. Believe the course. Implement the course. Fol...
by dogagility
Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is the disaster scenario for stocks a reason not to invest or pull out of the market?
Replies: 94
Views: 7122

Re: Is the disaster scenario for stocks a reason not to invest or pull out of the market?

Bogleheads are a very pessimistic group of investors.... At least many of the most active ones seem supremely so, even though John Bogle's guidance is based on optimism about the future. Agree. Many active Bogleheads continually bring up the idea of investing against Black Swan events... the entire...