Search found 77 matches

by alpine_boglehead
Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Is Worried About U.S. Pensions
Replies: 80
Views: 6886

Re: Jack Bogle Is Worried About U.S. Pensions

e. It does seem like we're at pretty high valuations right now,, and 4% is hardly worst 10-year return the S&P 500 has endured (-3% nominal, -6% real). Yes, much lower returns than 4% are a real possibility. So if you want to worry about something, you might choose a really worrisome scenario. What...
by alpine_boglehead
Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 50
Views: 3414

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

$655350, at June 17, 2018 (this will be remembered as the day when Warren Buffet caved in and swapped all his BRK holdings for Bitcoin :twisted:
by alpine_boglehead
Tue Dec 05, 2017 1:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "petro," a Venezuelan oil-backed cryptocurrency
Replies: 32
Views: 2245

Re: The "petro," a Venezuelan oil-backed cryptocurrency

So instead of a cryptocurrency backed by...nothing...we have a cryptocurrency backed by...the value of assets of one of the most dysfunctional economies in the world. Sounds like a prescription for a value monotonically declining to zero. Or maybe even going negative. The dysfunctinality of the eco...
by alpine_boglehead
Mon Dec 04, 2017 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 4184
Views: 1114786

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I just wanted to wish all the buy & hold investors HAPPY QUADRUPLE DAY! The S&P 500 index hit a great recession low of 666 in 2009. Earlier today, it exceeded 2665. Simple math (and I'm not even including dividends). 8-) Happy +300% day, too. :) That's 3,195 days, giving us a 0.04% CDGR - that's th...
by alpine_boglehead
Sun Dec 03, 2017 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me choose one of these High Dividend Yield ETFs
Replies: 12
Views: 720

Re: Help me choose one of these High Dividend Yield ETFs

Now that we know what your goal is, can you elaborate on why it is your goal in the first place? Just wanted to ask the same thing. Why do you think a high dividend yield is desirable? The standard objection to a high dividend fund would be - such an ETF would have higher fees and be less diversifi...
by alpine_boglehead
Sun Dec 03, 2017 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me choose one of these High Dividend Yield ETFs
Replies: 12
Views: 720

Re: Help me choose one of these High Dividend Yield ETFs

Now that we know what your goal is, can you elaborate on why it is your goal in the first place? Just wanted to ask the same thing. Why do you think a high dividend yield is desirable? The standard objection to a high dividend fund would be - such an ETF would have higher fees and be less diversifi...
by alpine_boglehead
Sun Dec 03, 2017 3:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Philanthropy and related issues
Replies: 50
Views: 3228

Re: Philanthropy and related issues

Hi All, I am very new to the forum and I certainly don't want to alienate anyone ( or break the rules). I genuinely appreciate the advice I have received. I have yet to see any posts by the financially fortunate people here about donating some of their wealth to charity or other non-profit causes. ...
by alpine_boglehead
Sun Dec 03, 2017 3:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Philanthropy and related issues
Replies: 50
Views: 3228

Re: Philanthropy and related issues

I would like to open a conversation about how we as fortunate/responsible/bogleheads can do more for our country and communities with $ or with our time. I don't have millions (yet :D ), but I give some money to causes which make a difference. When donating, I think about getting the best "bang for...
by alpine_boglehead
Sat Dec 02, 2017 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?
Replies: 134
Views: 9422

Re: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?

We are in a nice long bull market which makes people more open to equities and higher allocations. Seem to see a lot of posts where aggressive allocations seem the norm even close to or in retirement. People worrying if the cut back from 70 or 80% to 60% they will lose out on growth. (less concern ...
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Nov 30, 2017 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What can we learn from BitCoin’s surge?
Replies: 37
Views: 3081

Re: What can we learn from BitCoin’s surge?

This popped up in one of those little banner ads yesterday. Heaven help us. https://s8.postimg.org/vbgdvzr51/Captura_de_pantalla_2017-11-29_a_la_s_10.17.48_PM.png And? Did you buy some penny cryptos? :P If I like the content of the website these ads are show on, I usually click some of these ads so...
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Nov 30, 2017 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?
Replies: 21
Views: 1813

Re: Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?

Thanks for the interesting post.
It's a good counterpoint to the weeky "high valuations" threads. Diversity of thought is what allows best to stay the course :D
However, as always, the expected future (which now seems rosy again) is probably already priced into the market.
by alpine_boglehead
Tue Nov 28, 2017 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?
Replies: 70
Views: 4670

Re: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?

For those of us who are not invested in Bitcoin and are just disinterested observers today, I'm thinking there's a wonderful opportunity to see if the real world behavior of a financial market matches the academic model of an asset bubble (at right below). https://s33.postimg.org/lbp6xccdr/Bitcoin_...
by alpine_boglehead
Mon Nov 27, 2017 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600
Replies: 138
Views: 10580

Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

So it's just an insurance against bitcoins obliterating all other currencies :twisted: To me, this is the only rational reason to own it. Yes, but thinking it to the conclusion, to really have an insurance against that case of digital currencies taking over, you'd need to be in a market-cap weighte...
by alpine_boglehead
Mon Nov 27, 2017 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600
Replies: 138
Views: 10580

Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

I think your point is that Bitcoin is a non-governmental fiat currency in the same way that the dollar is a fiat currency. So, are you a currency speculator? If so, why is it that you think Bitcoin will outperform other currencies in the long haul? I'm not a believer in bitcoin, but I think the arg...
by alpine_boglehead
Mon Nov 27, 2017 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: GE - a good value?
Replies: 97
Views: 7687

Re: GE - a good value?

This thread is the perfect example why I really don't like to be active on this Forum. 70+% of the comments are too much black/white. Every non-boglehead post gets shot down instead of receiving positive feedback. I understand the methodology but a balanced portfolio can and should have some indivi...
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses
Replies: 17
Views: 1908

Re: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses

There is a continuum and Larry Swedroe will not admit that it exists. Well, how could there not be a continuum. Only Total Stock Market (or, for that matter, Total World Stock) can be considered totally passive. With S&P 500, you're already making a (very minor) active decision towards Large-Cap. T...
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses
Replies: 17
Views: 1908

Re: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses

There is a continuum and Larry Swedroe will not admit that it exists. Well, how could there not be a continuum. Only Total Stock Market (or, for that matter, Total World Stock) can be considered totally passive. With S&P 500, you're already making a (very minor) active decision towards Large-Cap. T...
by alpine_boglehead
Tue Nov 21, 2017 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: GE - a good value?
Replies: 97
Views: 7687

Re: GE - a good value?

OP What makes you believe that you know more than everyone else including Wall Street full time traders? What specifically you see that all of other people can not see? It's called anchoring. GE was once at $60, so it's easy to be led to believe that the "intrinsic" value of GE is just that. https:...
by alpine_boglehead
Tue Nov 21, 2017 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: GE - a good value?
Replies: 97
Views: 7687

Re: GE - a good value?

BogleMelon wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 2:37 pm
OP
What makes you believe that you know more than everyone else including Wall Street full time traders? What specifically you see that all of other people can not see?
Image
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Nov 16, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The passive investing trap
Replies: 23
Views: 4621

Re: The passive investing trap

For many of us, it's about cost. If an astute active manager worked for 0.1 ER I would probably try one with a small portion of my portfolio even if they traded a lot. Even if your Very-Cheap-Active-Fund would actually have a ER that low, it would still be at a disadvantage due to frequent capital ...
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Nov 16, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World's Negative Interest Rate Experiment
Replies: 34
Views: 3395

Re: The World's Negative Interest Rate Experiment

Does the cash in the brokerage account also incur negative interest rate? There has to be better methods of storing money than putting the bundles in microwave. I don't think most Europeans have stockbroking accounts -- investing is done direct through banks or insurance companies. Yes, many banks ...
by alpine_boglehead
Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: BH recent Membership [BogleHead]
Replies: 17
Views: 1676

Re: BH recent Membership

I do have some ideas on what this might mean; for instance, no denying a very hot market run up, and the big attraction to TSM and SP500 = irrational exuberance? Any other ideas on this? There also seem to be many posts about whether to pull out of equities completely, fear about entering the marke...
by alpine_boglehead
Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are actively managed funds that claim to beat the market actually "scams"?
Replies: 29
Views: 2709

Re: Are actively managed funds that claim to beat the market actually "scams"?

How can it be a scam to state a fact? Maybe “scam” isn’t the right word - but it’s certainly possible to present facts in a materially misleading way, which could improperly influence the investment decision making process. I believe that is the point of the OP’s question. It's not even close to th...
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Did you tell anyone you paid off your mortgage?
Replies: 338
Views: 37665

Re: Did you tell anyone you paid off your mortgage?

A couple of years later... Boss: "quantAndHold, I'm a miserably incompetent pointy head, and I need you to do something you're strongly not inclined to do." quantAndHold: "My last day will be 2 weeks from Friday." A scene like this alone is worth the "struggle" for FI. :sharebeer I'll also support ...
by alpine_boglehead
Tue Nov 07, 2017 12:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "$1 Million is Closer Than You Think"
Replies: 54
Views: 9507

Re: "$1 Million is Closer Than You Think"

It seems like they've heard beebog say this the other day (regarding gamification proposition by BlackRock CEO), proving once again that they are the vanguard :) On the other hand, someone like Vanguard or Bogleheads could create an app that rewards you for fully funding a Roth, qualifying for Admir...
by alpine_boglehead
Mon Nov 06, 2017 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TER of ETF misleading??
Replies: 8
Views: 761

Re: TER of ETF misleading??

Thanks for you thoughts. Here's mine again. Dear all, thank you for the answer! Dear alpine_boglehead, please check my comments below, do not take it personally, I am just hunting the truth!:) : We all are :) So the actual loss before getting taxed locally (which as BeBH65 states depends on your cou...
by alpine_boglehead
Mon Nov 06, 2017 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who owns Vanguard? Schwab and Fidelity!
Replies: 27
Views: 3641

Re: Who owns Vanguard? Schwab and Fidelity!

While the dates don't line up, I don't see how Schwab is close to Vanguard in assets under management. They are up 2.9T, pretty close to Vanguard: https://www.brokerage-review.com/investing-firm/assets-under-management/charles-schwab-aum.aspx Maybe (matches roughly with my Wikipedia number from abo...
by alpine_boglehead
Sun Nov 05, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with Cash right now
Replies: 13
Views: 1067

Re: What to do with Cash right now

Threads like yours seem to be common these days - the economy chugs along well, money comes in, at the same time asset prices are elevated. Look at threads from the previous few months (even weeks). And follow the forum for a few months (or better yet chime in), you will learn a lot more than from t...
by alpine_boglehead
Sun Nov 05, 2017 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who owns Vanguard? Schwab and Fidelity!
Replies: 27
Views: 3641

Re: Who owns Vanguard? Schwab and Fidelity!

shareholding is reported in street names. It just means high percentage of vanguard funds are owned by Charls schawb and Fidelity clients not by these firms themselves. This is correct. Fidelity or Schwab holds the interest in Vanguard for the benefit of their clients; the client sends money to Fid...
by alpine_boglehead
Sun Nov 05, 2017 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Did I earn an extra hour of interest last night?
Replies: 56
Views: 4078

Re: Did I earn an extra hour of interest last night?

Most well designed computer programs will store date/time events as UTC in the back end then convert to the user's time zone when displaying them. Not sure if there's any standard pattern used for pen/paper logs. I know of at least one financial institution that shuts down their mainframe for about...
by alpine_boglehead
Sun Nov 05, 2017 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Blackrock think it's all a game?
Replies: 33
Views: 4817

Re: Does Blackrock think it's all a game?

Yes, you missed the smiley :) - the editors certainly put a deeply ironic touch to it by adding the silly South Park video game image. I'd say he's trying to jump on the train of gamification trend in software nowadays. Haven't you noticed the quests, badges, leaderboards etc., on bogleheads.org? :t...
by alpine_boglehead
Sun Oct 29, 2017 2:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Sunscreen: use it all the time? (And what's a good one w/o sting?)
Replies: 58
Views: 3561

Re: Sunscreen: use it all the time? (And what's a good one w/o sting?)

when it's sunny out? Not only then - you can have (light) cloud cover and still get a nasty sunburn. Many people I talk to aren't really aware that the intensity and danger of solar radiation varies greatly: - by time of day - hours around noon are many times more dangerous than early morning/eveni...
by alpine_boglehead
Sat Oct 28, 2017 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Germany only] Vanguard ETFs now available on XETRA
Replies: 7
Views: 948

Re: [Germany only] Vanguard ETFs now available on XETRA

I'm from Austria, so the situation is a bit different here (local brokers have to do all tax-related stuff). In principle it's the same in Germany, there are three cases: Accumulating funds domiciled in Germany: handled at the source by the local broker Distributing funds domiciled outside of Germa...
by alpine_boglehead
Sat Oct 28, 2017 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TER of ETF misleading??
Replies: 8
Views: 761

Re: TER of ETF misleading??

That's an issue which also haunts me and I've researched it to some extent, but it seems there's not really an easy way around this. I've just looked into the 2016 annual report of VWRL (available e.g. here: https://www.justetf.com/servlet/download?isin=IE00B3RBWM25&documentType=AR&country=DE&lang=e...
by alpine_boglehead
Fri Oct 27, 2017 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Germany only] Vanguard ETFs now available on XETRA
Replies: 7
Views: 948

Re: [Germany only] Vanguard ETFs now available on XETRA

It did feel strange that these wouldn't be available to private investors on one of the largest marketplaces in Europe. Absolutely. Not having Vanguard funds readily available seemed really weird. I'm also hoping for healthy competition bringing down costs :sharebeer One final point on the taxation...
by alpine_boglehead
Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Germany only] Vanguard ETFs now available on XETRA
Replies: 7
Views: 948

Re: [Germany only] Vanguard ETFs now available on XETRA

herpfinance wrote:
Thu Oct 26, 2017 3:49 pm
I'll have to check my brokers in order to see if additional ETF's have become available.
It might take a bit - as of now for me they are available at one broker, but not yet at another.
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Oct 26, 2017 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Germany only] Vanguard ETFs now available on XETRA
Replies: 7
Views: 948

[Germany only] Vanguard ETFs now available on XETRA

Good news for Germany-located bogleheads - as part of Vanguards seemingly unstoppable triumphal march the Ireland-based Vanguard ETFs can now also be purchased on XETRA (main German stock exchange). Until now you had to buy Vanguard ETFs elsewhere, but with many brokers it's cheaper via XETRA. I hav...
by alpine_boglehead
Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Investors really underperform their investments
Replies: 45
Views: 3828

Re: Do Investors really underperform their investments

Let's just admit it. Eight years into a bull market we're all above average investors :mrgreen: Maybe. I was a lot less nervous when I owned apartment buildings. They weren't going to vanish overnight. :shock: The companies you own via TSM aren't going to vanish overnight either, only the price oth...
by alpine_boglehead
Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Zweig: Guard Against Complacency
Replies: 5
Views: 1124

Re: Jason Zweig: Guard Against Complacency

http://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/zweig-guard-against-complacency?nopaging=1 If you had to design a recipe for some kind of horror movie about how to get the worst imaginable behavior out of investors, that's what the script would look like. It's cheap to borrow money, observable risk i...
by alpine_boglehead
Sun Oct 22, 2017 11:51 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Thank you Jack, Taylor and Mel!!
Replies: 27
Views: 2903

Re: Thank you Jack, Taylor and Mel!!

My heartfelt thanks to all making this forum possible. It's like the wikipedia of investing, only that you can ask it questions :D
by alpine_boglehead
Sun Oct 22, 2017 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I believe one can beat the market with a simple contrarian strategy. Am I a fool?
Replies: 32
Views: 4037

Re: I believe one can beat the market with a simple contrarian strategy. Am I a fool?

I am sorry I don’t know how to quote the original posts in my response. Use the quotation mark symbol at the top right corner of the respective post. Overall, what has been helpful was to prepare myself psychologically thanks to 1987, 2000-2002, and many other smaller market corrections during my e...
by alpine_boglehead
Sun Oct 22, 2017 6:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I believe one can beat the market with a simple contrarian strategy. Am I a fool?
Replies: 32
Views: 4037

Re: I believe one can beat the market with a simple contrarian strategy. Am I a fool?

As you yourself others point out, your strategy has it's weak points and might not have served you as well under different circumstances. But it's still better than many other people's strategies (it's in the "buy-and-hold" camp, so it obviously is already on the better side of the playing field). O...
by alpine_boglehead
Sat Oct 21, 2017 11:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Desperate to get rid of mosquitoes, what else could we try?
Replies: 62
Views: 4391

Re: Desperate to get rid of mosquitoes, what else could we try?

You might try use plants which mosquitoes don't like (and which preferably smell and look nice to humans) - try googling "plants repelling mosquitoes" - has anyone got experience with this approach? (if it works it would be a cheap, quite effortless method)
by alpine_boglehead
Sat Oct 21, 2017 12:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller: the 1987 stock market panic can happen again
Replies: 29
Views: 2817

Re: Shiller: the 1987 stock market panic can happen again

For these big movements to occur, you seem to need some kind of domino effect. In 1987 it presumedly was portfolio insurance "stop-loss" orders, combined with a general panic by investors. In 2008, it was a cascade of financial institutions collapsing after bad loans going down, with risk of the who...
by alpine_boglehead
Sat Oct 21, 2017 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller: the 1987 stock market panic can happen again
Replies: 29
Views: 2817

Re: Shiller: the 1987 stock market panic can happen again

Of course, there were 7 such double digit GAINS in a single day (left hand side of the chart). So almost twice as many double digit gain days as losses. I like those odds. The fly in the ointment is that the top 16 best days of high gains all occurred in highly volatile markets after sharp losses (...
by alpine_boglehead
Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction
Replies: 51
Views: 6751

Re: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction

What does Market timing really mean? Does it mean adjusting your AA slightly or in a big way? What if you are in a TD fund, is that Marketing timing for me to stay to on its internal glide path? Thanks Basically, any move you make because you *think* you know how things will play out is market timi...
by alpine_boglehead
Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction
Replies: 51
Views: 6751

Re: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction

If one does market timing many times, one might do it right some times. Yes, but if you assume that on average the market goes up (has done that up to now), on average every month you stay out will on cost you the 0,95% that Larry mentions. (or 0,2%, if you're with John Bogle on the 3% expected ann...
by alpine_boglehead
Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction
Replies: 51
Views: 6751

Re: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction

Nonsense - when the oil market was tanking about two years ago, oils sold off like they were going out of business +1 Same for emerging markets (ok, these are expected to be more volatile). The catch is that when there's a crash in the making, it's not that the market crashes just because. There's ...
by alpine_boglehead
Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction
Replies: 51
Views: 6751

Re: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction

Nonsense - when the oil market was tanking about two years ago, oils sold off like they were going out of business +1 Same for emerging markets (ok, these are expected to be more volatile). The catch is that when there's a crash in the making, it's not that the market crashes just because. There's ...
by alpine_boglehead
Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy when there's blood in the streets!
Replies: 39
Views: 6550

Re: Buy when there's blood in the streets!

how could one actually "buy" any decent quantity of stocks upon a crash? Not selling during a crash is already pretty much equal to buying during the crash. If you can just do that, you'll already be better off than many others. Unfortunately, for the aggregate of investors, that's an oxymoron. The...