Search found 125 matches

by alpine_boglehead
Sat Feb 17, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO forecast
Replies: 17
Views: 1523

Re: GMO forecast

Alternatively, you can conclude that if very intelligent value based investors are able to make a strong case for a permabear position that does not match actual stock progress, it shows what a completely illogical gamble investing really is. The Bogleheads philosophy rests on the idea that the mar...
by alpine_boglehead
Sat Feb 17, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help needed to choose Vanguard EU based ETFS
Replies: 16
Views: 686

Re: Help needed to choose Vanguard EU based ETFS

Hello mixinvest, it's a pitty that the EU wants to protect investors from using more efficient investment vehicles. I was also thinking about US-based ETFs for reduced dividend tax leakage ... . The costs might be different depending on which exchange you buy, and that will likely also vary from br...
by alpine_boglehead
Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO forecast
Replies: 17
Views: 1523

Re: GMO forecast

It's at least interesting to browse through GMO's successive forecasts (from Google image search "GMO 7 year asset class forecast). Even in 2010, when this bull market was still a calf, they gave US large cap a 4,7% expected real return. For the S&P 500 (US large cap), in the 7 years that followed t...
by alpine_boglehead
Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help needed to choose Vanguard EU based ETFS
Replies: 16
Views: 686

Re: Help needed to choose Vanguard EU based ETFS

Hello mixinvest, it's a pitty that the EU wants to protect investors from using more efficient investment vehicles. I was also thinking about US-based ETFs for reduced dividend tax leakage ... . The costs might be different depending on which exchange you buy, and that will likely also vary from bro...
by alpine_boglehead
Sat Feb 10, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: has anyone here tried to engineer a low-income-generating portfolio?
Replies: 18
Views: 1350

Re: has anyone here tried to engineer a low-income-generating portfolio?

I tend to agree with KlangFool. Putting your bond side into zero-yielding money marked fund, compared to e.g. 5 year treasuries with a yield of now 2.5% would, only on the 2.5M bond side, give you in a simplistic calculation a yearly loss of 62k. Putting your stock portion only into growth - which h...
by alpine_boglehead
Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Vanderbilts
Replies: 26
Views: 3955

Re: The Vanderbilts

I believe the statistics go something like 70% of inherited wealth is lost by the second generation, 90% by the third. How many generations has it been since the Vanderbilt’s? I guess they never hears about the SWR. Buffet and Gates might be thinking along the same lines when pledging most of their...
by alpine_boglehead
Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Vanderbilts
Replies: 26
Views: 3955

Re: The Vanderbilts

Very interesting that some of the losses are attributable to the lack of liquidity in rough times. A good reason for having an emergency fund.
by alpine_boglehead
Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: what do/did you do with your evenings with a Toddler in winters ?
Replies: 63
Views: 3892

Re: what do/did you do with your evenings with a Toddler in winters ?

I don't have kids, but was one, too. My parents used to read children's books to me. There was listening to music and singing. Drawing. Making fun. Simple games. (try to defeat kids at match-match - good luck though). We had no TV and no internet (which is a good thing :D) Find out what really fasci...
by alpine_boglehead
Fri Jan 26, 2018 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [EU] Help needed with European Bonds ETFs
Replies: 19
Views: 981

Re: [EU] Help needed with European Bonds ETFs

RME wrote:
Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:13 pm
I had not heard about CDs before, I will research about it.
CD = certificate of deposit (savings account not accessible for a fixed amount of time), in Spanish this would probably be depósito a plazo fijo.
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Jan 25, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [EU] Help needed with European Bonds ETFs
Replies: 19
Views: 981

Re: [EU] Help needed with European Bonds ETFs

The funds suggested by galeno seem fine. Here's some additional thoughts: Currently you can do better with CDs (fixed time/fixed interest rate savings accounts) than with bonds. E.g. the prospectus for IE0032523478 says that the effective duration is 5.42 years and the effective interest rate 0.66%....
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are some good, older threads?
Replies: 20
Views: 2056

Re: What are some good, older threads?

A different approach to asset allocation Econ student levers his portfolio to the max right before the 2008 crash based on advice from this book . Doubles down as things start to turn south. Slowly crawls his way back. It's a great read. I was also going to recommend this one. Every time I get to t...
by alpine_boglehead
Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Friend Got Laid Off - Advice Needed
Replies: 46
Views: 5104

Re: Friend Got Laid Off - Advice Needed

Apart from the practical advice (apply unemployment payments, take care of health insurance, cut expenses) ... I encourage your friend to see the opportunity that lies in this difficulty. He should network. Update his LinkedIn profile. Reconnect with old colleagues. Try to build a regular and health...
by alpine_boglehead
Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Future US Equity Returns: A Best-Case Upper Limit”
Replies: 20
Views: 1721

Re: “Future US Equity Returns: A Best-Case Upper Limit”

Thanks very much for sharing. His/her articles are always good food for thought. Interesting article on future returns in equities seems to give credence to Jack's(and other's) take on future returns. What? How do you see that? One is saying 4% nominal and one is saying 4% real. Those aren't even in...
by alpine_boglehead
Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Mark Cuban -] "Diversification is for idiots..."
Replies: 26
Views: 3812

Re: Diversification is for idiots...

If you KNEW about Microsoft, Amazon, Broadcast.com, or BitCoin before they got run up, of course diversification is for idiots. Diversification is just for the rest of us that don't have a crystal ball. I do have a crystal ball (Idiot's Edition). I just asked it, it says I should stay the course by...
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kodakcoin
Replies: 101
Views: 8309

Re: Kodakcoin

New 'insane' ETF proposal for bitcoin generates worry on Wall Street Direxion wants to introduce 2X leveraged and inverse Bitcoin ETFs. I am... speechless. When 10% moves in 5 seconds just aren't enough action for you! :shock: Honestly! Why not just have people "invest" in coin flips, dice rolls, o...
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone Have Experience With Broker Degiro?
Replies: 4
Views: 401

Re: Anyone Have Experience With Broker Degiro?

Yes I have some experience with degiro, but not very much, I opened an account with them a few years ago and purchased a couple of shares of BRK.B over time to test things out. My experience has been good, no problems of any kind, with fast email support on the few questions I had. The trading fees ...
by alpine_boglehead
Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If I have a million with Edward Jones, in 10 years, how much money has my FA made off me?
Replies: 48
Views: 6480

Re: If I have a million with Edward Jones, in 10 years, how much money has my FA made off me?

The costs could be yet higher if the adviser actively switches funds, each time reducing principal by the front load. So a case worse than just the AUM fee plus high ER funds is an adviser that on top of that switches you through funds. E.g. 3 switches with a front load of 5% in that time frame woul...
by alpine_boglehead
Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kodakcoin
Replies: 101
Views: 8309

Re: Kodakcoin

When I first saw the thread title I thought it was a joke. Things are really ridiculous in the cryptocurrency domain. I just saw that there's a "Veritaseum" currency (any Harry Potter fans here?), Venezuela's Petro (coin), now this KodakCoin. We only need Warren Buffet issuing utterly unpronounceabl...
by alpine_boglehead
Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?
Replies: 50
Views: 3445

Re: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?

Here's a European (Servus from Austria). Why not just use a world portfolio according to market weights? I really like Vanguard FTSE All-World ETF (European VT analogon) for its simplicity and completeness (in the large-cap space) and comparatively low expense ratio. Disclaimer: I hold the above fun...
by alpine_boglehead
Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hypothetical question: Will a man who lives forever own the world?
Replies: 23
Views: 1648

Re: Hypothetical question: Will a man who lives forever own the world?

An in-depth study of this topic is Thomas Picketty's "Capital in the 21st Century", where he argues exactly that point - that wealth concentration increases if the rate of return on capital is greater than the overall economic growth. So yes, in theory, you're correct in my view. But: your hypotheti...
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOW breaks 25,000 for first time ever
Replies: 55
Views: 5633

Re: DOW breaks 25,000 for first time ever

We're having a remarkable bull market. Hopefully the grand finale lasts a bit so we can enjoy it :twisted: (just joking, nobody knows nuthing of course) I remember well when I put some money into stocks when the Dow was about 8000 in 2009. I thought that I would sell at 16000 to escape the next dow...
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOW breaks 25,000 for first time ever
Replies: 55
Views: 5633

Re: DOW breaks 25,000 for first time ever

We're having a remarkable bull market. Hopefully the grand finale lasts a bit so we can enjoy it :twisted: (just joking, nobody knows nuthing of course) I remember well when I put some money into stocks when the Dow was about 8000 in 2009. I thought that I would sell at 16000 to escape the next down...
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Non Public-traded REIT nightmare continues
Replies: 16
Views: 2078

Re: Non Public-traded REIT nightmare continues

Same in Europe, there's lots of private non-liquid investment vehicles (REITs, ships, whatever) which are usually very bad investments. Last month one from around here went under which was somehow set up to regularly distribute losses to investors so they could save on taxes.
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chip architecture vulnerability in pretty much everthing
Replies: 106
Views: 6816

Re: Chip architecture vulnerability in pretty much everthing

Reports of a post-fix 30% reduction in computer performance. But Intel seems to be saying that is only for certain applications. Yes, the magnitude of the slowdown seems to depend on the kind of application. According to this source the patch (in Linux) essentially slows down all system calls, so a...
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett wins his bet: S&P500 beats selected hedge funds over last 10 years
Replies: 45
Views: 6249

Re: Buffett wins his bet: S&P500 beats selected hedge funds over last 10 years

Interesting how the math plays out. The hedge funds did exactly as one would have expected. The hedge fund rule of thumb fee model seems to be fees of 2% of assets per year, and 20% of asset growth. Stack this two times because of the fund-of-funds construction. If you just run that fee model over ...
by alpine_boglehead
Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett wins his bet: S&P500 beats selected hedge funds over last 10 years
Replies: 45
Views: 6249

Re: Buffett wins his bet: S&P500 beats selected hedge funds over last 10 years

Interesting how the math plays out. The hedge funds did exactly as one would have expected. The hedge fund rule of thumb fee model seems to be fees of 2% of assets per year, and 20% of asset growth. Stack this two times because of the fund-of-funds construction. If you just run that fee model over t...
by alpine_boglehead
Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please rate my ETF-Portfolio, thanks! [Germany]
Replies: 15
Views: 1196

Re: Please rate my ETF-Portfolio, thanks! [Germany]

She sees things a little different and wants to own a house etc. I want to own nothing except the outlook to a financial freedom. This is an important issue. As pointed out in many other posts, having a partner that shares your financials views is one of the cornerstones of wealth and a good relati...
by alpine_boglehead
Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please rate my ETF-Portfolio, thanks! [Germany]
Replies: 15
Views: 1196

Re: Please rate my ETF-Portfolio, thanks! [Germany]

Any further thoughts? Alpine boglehead i would love to exchange more thoughts with a felldow Austrian boglehead. Do you have your portfolio with a German or Austrian broker? Merry christmas to all of you And a happy new year! :) Sorry for the delay due to the holidays. I also happy to meet fellow A...
by alpine_boglehead
Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please rate my ETF-Portfolio, thanks! [Germany]
Replies: 15
Views: 1196

Re: Please rate my ETF-Portfolio, thanks! [Germany]

So first of all i want to reach out to @imperia: Thanks so much for your cautious advice concerning the ETF choices. This really made me think about maybe switching gears. But the thing is: we will have a new Tax Law starting from 01.01.2018 which will treat every ETF equal independent from where i...
by alpine_boglehead
Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MiFID II [European Union - Markets in Financial Instruments Directive]
Replies: 27
Views: 1809

Re: MiFID II [European Union - Markets in Financial Instruments Directive]

With one stroke of a pen, Vanguard funds are no longer an attractive option for people in the EU :oops: Why are the Ireland-domiciled Vanguard ETFs less attractive than e.g. the also Ireland-based iShares ETFs? Both should have the same dividend tax leakage(i.e. taxes already paid on dividends in U...
by alpine_boglehead
Sat Dec 23, 2017 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: food for thought
Replies: 53
Views: 4781

Re: Bitcoin: food for thought

tadamsmar, thanks for the interesting thought. I'll present what might be the probably standard orthodox Boglehead line of reasoning - by the same logic you would now need to invest in every available crypto currency available. And every small cap company (and startup), which could become the next N...
by alpine_boglehead
Sat Dec 23, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying Bond ETFs in Europe
Replies: 31
Views: 3125

Re: Buying Bond ETFs in Europe

Yes, very interesting indeed, thanks very much for posting the info. The ER is as low as it gets in Europe. Is there anywhere a site where you have a good overview of the yield, duration and holdings (sovereign vs. corporate, country distribution)? I'm also mostly in CDs right now for the fixed inc...
by alpine_boglehead
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 162
Views: 16618

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

John Bogle: The stock market is a giant distraction to the business of investing.

And so is Bitcoin. :)
by alpine_boglehead
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying Bond ETFs in Europe
Replies: 31
Views: 3125

Re: Buying Bond ETFs in Europe

Very good info on bond funds for Europeans in this thread, thanks for that! There is a new interesting choice launched just month ago: iShares Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Acc) -Ticker AGGH -ER 0.10% -Domiciled in Ireland -Accumulating -Share classes available with EUR, GBP or USD he...
by alpine_boglehead
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 162
Views: 16618

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

This is amazing to watch in real time. I'm not sure which way I'm rooting for - I don't have anything riding on the outcome. Probably a good thing for the investing public to be reminded that prices can't keep going up forever and there is no free lunch in investing. Down to 11,000 in the last 10 m...
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Dec 21, 2017 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holiday Chart — S&P 500 Price & Earnings, 1990-2017
Replies: 13
Views: 1663

Re: Holiday Chart — S&P 500 Price & Earnings, 1990-2017

Thanks for this interesting chart. If I'm not mistaken, it's a different representation of the same data in your recent thread . as for the OP bullet 3): as indexers, does it really matter where the growth comes from? I "fear" there's still some potential in tech stocks, as opposed to the late 90s,...
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Dec 21, 2017 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holiday Chart — S&P 500 Price & Earnings, 1990-2017
Replies: 13
Views: 1663

Re: Holiday Chart — S&P 500 Price & Earnings, 1990-2017

For total market stock index investors, probably not. But for those investors with equity portfolios tilted toward small cap stocks, value stocks and various other factors, broader earnings growth in sectors beyond the large tech super-stocks would be a welcome development in the new year. Some sug...
by alpine_boglehead
Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holiday Chart — S&P 500 Price & Earnings, 1990-2017
Replies: 13
Views: 1663

Re: Holiday Chart — S&P 500 Price & Earnings, 1990-2017

Thanks for this interesting chart. If I'm not mistaken, it's a different representation of the same data in your recent thread . as for the OP bullet 3): as indexers, does it really matter where the growth comes from? I "fear" there's still some potential in tech stocks, as opposed to the late 90s, ...
by alpine_boglehead
Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quite a few people I know in real life that normally don't mess with finances have brought up investing in bitcoin
Replies: 74
Views: 7009

Re: Quite a few people I know in real life that normally don't mess with finances have brought up investing in bitcoin

Same here - Bitcoin is now a topic du jour among people who don't have a clue about finances otherwise. But its not surprising, the many mainstream media have covered Bitcoin extensively in the last few weeks. The technology (blockchain, distributed transactions etc.) is very interesting - and Bitco...
by alpine_boglehead
Tue Dec 19, 2017 1:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Memories over money
Replies: 40
Views: 2841

Re: Memories over money

If everything else is going just fine, no objections to converting money into memories. But I see so many people stressed out at their jobs that I guess for them it would be better to to convert that money into time to spend on their family and physical and mental health. That the best things in liv...
by alpine_boglehead
Sat Dec 16, 2017 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please rate my ETF-Portfolio, thanks! [Germany]
Replies: 15
Views: 1196

Re: Please rate my ETF-Portfolio, thanks! [Germany]

André, welcome to the bogleheads! Your portfolio looks fine to me, I suppose you're using the respective iShares ETFs. Is the tilt to Europe some kind of home bias? Or do you expect better returns here? (there's quite some threads on the topic of "international" investing) Distributing vs. accumulat...
by alpine_boglehead
Fri Dec 15, 2017 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017
Replies: 30
Views: 2400

Re: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017

The story of this thread in a nutshell: OP: This is a picture of a chicken. Any thoughts? First Responder: But that bird doesn't have webbed feet. How can it be a duck? OP: If you look closer, you'll see that it's actually a chicken. Second Responder: But why didn't you offer a picture of a goose? ...
by alpine_boglehead
Fri Dec 15, 2017 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I open a fitness center for extra money?
Replies: 37
Views: 2961

Re: Should I open a fitness center for extra money?

Before really considering it, do a thorough research. Check out the local market. Maybe your former classmate opened shop in a town where there was little competition. But I would suspect that investing all that effort, time and money into yourself (education) at your profession, you might get a bet...
by alpine_boglehead
Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scary episode with "intruder" in the home ... Google Home
Replies: 15
Views: 4049

Re: Scary episode with "intruder" in the home ... Google Home

OP, creepy indeed. If things continue on their current path, we'll be seeing lots of this in the future.

Colleagues at work discussed this today - the Alexa Google Siri Loop - :) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmINGWsyWX0
by alpine_boglehead
Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do after losing $117k in stock market?
Replies: 156
Views: 17131

Re: What to do after losing $117k in stock market?

OP, joy and excitement may be nice, but long-term satisfaction when you are seeing your finances prosper is worth more in the long run. What really keeps my own hands out of individual stocks is the realization that with efficient markets, buying individual stocks just gives me the same expected ret...
by alpine_boglehead
Mon Dec 11, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller warming up to Bitcoin
Replies: 7
Views: 1664

Re: Robert Shiller warming up to Bitcoin

Sounds like he’s unsure what to make of Bitcoin and acknowledges it could be important. Which boils down to nobody knows nothing. Playing a little bit around with Bitcoin is like a game and that's part of what drives financial markets, it's the pleasure. This doesn't give me great confidence in his...
by alpine_boglehead
Mon Dec 11, 2017 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Done gone and did it [Retire]
Replies: 80
Views: 8111

Re: Done gone and did it

Congratulations - life's too short anyway. I can only wish you the life expectancy and spirit of John Bogle, Warren Buffet, Charie Munger and Taylor Larimore. According to grok87's tagline "...people always live for ever when there is any annuity to be paid them- Jane Austen", a SPIA would make sens...
by alpine_boglehead
Mon Dec 11, 2017 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What cause BH fear about running out of saving though they have big size of asset?
Replies: 27
Views: 1816

Re: What cause BH fear about running out of saving though they have big size of asset?

What cause BH fear about running out of saving though they have big size of asset? I see many BH have multi millions but still worry about money. What about for the people without savings at all? Haven't seen so many of them crying for money. It's kind of a paradoxon - because Bogleheads worry abou...
by alpine_boglehead
Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Is Worried About U.S. Pensions
Replies: 85
Views: 8775

Re: Jack Bogle Is Worried About U.S. Pensions

e. It does seem like we're at pretty high valuations right now,, and 4% is hardly worst 10-year return the S&P 500 has endured (-3% nominal, -6% real). Yes, much lower returns than 4% are a real possibility. So if you want to worry about something, you might choose a really worrisome scenario. What...
by alpine_boglehead
Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 182
Views: 18195

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

$655350, at June 17, 2018 (this will be remembered as the day when Warren Buffet caved in and swapped all his BRK holdings for Bitcoin :twisted: