Search found 352 matches

by alpine_boglehead
Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:40 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: New Accumulating Vanguard ETFs for EU Investors
Replies: 7
Views: 1344

Re: New Accumulating Vanguard ETFs for EU Investors

I've just noticed that there's now also Vanguard FTSE Developed World UCITS ETF Accumulating (USD), IE00BK5BQV03, TER 0,12% It's only trading on the LSE so far, and has only 3 million AUM (according to justETF ), but it's a probably share class of the same fund as the distributing version (IE00BKX55...
by alpine_boglehead
Tue Oct 29, 2019 11:25 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Rebalancing in taxable accounts with capital gains liabilities
Replies: 4
Views: 537

Re: Rebalancing in taxable accounts with capital gains liabilities

Hey, In Portugal there aren't any tax shelters that would allow one to rebalance without incurring capital gains liabilities. Is it recommended to rebalance by selling overweight investments and buying underweight investments in those scenarios? I know one can rebalance when contributions are made ...
by alpine_boglehead
Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What were the best portfolios during the "lost decade" 2000-2009?
Replies: 33
Views: 3620

Re: What were the best portfolios during the "lost decade" 2000-2009?

Gold had a great run over this period. :oops: I guess what I was asking was, of the many popular (or typical, commonly-used, etc.) portfolios in use today, how would they have done? I could make a list here, but I think you know what they are. Gold was spectacular, Portfolio Visualizer gives you a ...
by alpine_boglehead
Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:50 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Vanguard cuts fees across its European range
Replies: 16
Views: 2757

Re: Vanguard cuts fees across its European range

Thanks for posting, good news indeed. :sharebeer

I'm looking forward to the day that Vanguard FTSE All-World ETF reaches the VT expense ratio.
by alpine_boglehead
Wed Oct 09, 2019 3:27 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Beginner investor from Lithuania seeking advice
Replies: 9
Views: 874

Re: Beginner investor from Lithuania seeking advice

Congratulations on the simple plan, it sounds good. One minor thing is that you might consider paying off your mortgage at an accelerated rate (if that is possible) instead of putting money into bonds - 1.6% is likely above what you can expect from EUR-hedged bonds.
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Sep 26, 2019 11:42 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: VWRD Dividends
Replies: 7
Views: 696

Re: VWRD Dividends

You can also view the dividend history of VWRD/VWRL back to 2012 at https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile. ... =dividends
by alpine_boglehead
Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Zeno's Paradox of investing: the buy-and-hold arrow that flies without moving
Replies: 31
Views: 3001

Re: The Zeno's Paradox of investing: the buy-and-hold arrow that flies without moving

The answer is - you have to settle for the GEP (good enough portfolio), whatever that means for every individual. But you obviously won't get this answer from the academics trying to research new stuff and the salesmen peddling new products. There's a big advantage of investing in taxable accounts -...
by alpine_boglehead
Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is private wealth management worth it?
Replies: 47
Views: 6149

Re: Is private wealth management worth it?

If you haven't read it, take a look at the managing a windfall wiki page . There's a saying I've read sometimes here - if you have enough knowledge to choose a good financial advisor, you don't need one anymore. It's true if you think about it - either you have to trust them blindly, or if you want ...
by alpine_boglehead
Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil price going to a $100-- time to change your asset allocation??
Replies: 86
Views: 8668

Re: Oil price going to a $100-- time to change your asset allocation??

If your stock exposure is too high for you to sleep well (and causes you ruminate over minor details of the global economy), then yes, it would be prudent to reduce your stock exposure. If you read the Bogleheads forum a year ago, there was lots of discussion over rising interest rates. Now, the dir...
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Sep 05, 2019 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Contest -- "Wall Street has no idea how stocks will end 2019, with forecasts ranging from down 5% to up 11%"
Replies: 27
Views: 2844

Re: Boglehead Contest -- "Wall Street has no idea how stocks will end 2019, with forecasts ranging from down 5% to up 11

A nice example how "experts" can't even agree on such a simple number. But it's a good thing, too. If all had very optimistic predictions, we would have to be worried. On the other hand they are somewhat in agreement - that there won't be big market movements - stocks can be much more volatile. If I...
by alpine_boglehead
Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Co-sponsoring an immigrant's sick family member [Updated]
Replies: 47
Views: 4669

Re: Co-sponsoring an immigrant's sick family member

You must be a kind person to have loaned him the money and now are considering such a big support. Such people often get taken advantage of. Already having helped him once, you must feel a strong urge to help him again. Your primary concern should be the safety and well-being of your own family. Who...
by alpine_boglehead
Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:54 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: VWRD vs VWRA - Dividends Calculation
Replies: 22
Views: 1688

Re: VWRD vs VWRA - Dividends Calculation

I assume you mean the US withholding tax which is 15% for Ireland-domiciled ETFs (not necessarily for mutual funds). VWRD contains other countries with lower withholding taxes, leading to about 12% - you can verify that by checking the annual report. Here's my calculation of what gets lost in VWRD ...
by alpine_boglehead
Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan and PE Ratio
Replies: 45
Views: 3718

Re: Japan and PE Ratio

In 1989 the Nikkei was at over 50x forward PE..while someone could have bought government long bonds and got over 5% yields. That's a mega bubble. Also anyone with birth statistics would have seen a decline in population coming within a decade so growth would come to a halt and deflationary forces ...
by alpine_boglehead
Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:23 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: VWRD vs VWRA - Dividends Calculation
Replies: 22
Views: 1688

Re: VWRD vs VWRA - Dividends Calculation

10.3% is my average over the last 5 years. As USA domicled equities become a higher percentage of VWRD / VWRL the dividend tax rate will go up accordingly. But thank you for the latest data. I'll put 12.2% into my spreadsheet instead of 10.3%. Our dividend tax rate over the last several years for V...
by alpine_boglehead
Fri Aug 23, 2019 3:11 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Cheapest way to buy MSCI World
Replies: 17
Views: 1342

Re: Cheapest way to buy MSCI World

Other things to consider are - what's the tracking error of the various ETFs? Tracking error can also be like 5 or 10 basis points (which is about the same order of magnitude as the TER savings discussed). Is share lending revenue fed into the fund or does it go to the fund company? The final chapte...
by alpine_boglehead
Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:26 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: VWRD vs VWRA - Dividends Calculation
Replies: 22
Views: 1688

Re: VWRD vs VWRA - Dividends Calculation

Our dividend tax rate over the last several years for VWRD is 10.3%. Page 59 of the annual report here , statement of operations, says that Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF had a 2018 dividend income of 43,044,701 and and paid foreign withholding tax of 5,268,891, which is 12.2%. How did you arriv...
by alpine_boglehead
Wed Aug 21, 2019 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total index funds are “crowded”
Replies: 26
Views: 3500

Re: Total index funds are “crowded”

The current thinking is that it only takes 20% of the markets being managed actively to keep the rest efficient. We are a long ways from that. If too much indexing got to be a problem, investors could use an active/passive approach with maybe 20% to 40% in low cost active funds and perhaps 60% to 8...
by alpine_boglehead
Wed Aug 21, 2019 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond appreciation is impossible without market timing.
Replies: 94
Views: 5989

Re: Bond growth is impossible without market timing.

Now that bonds are the flavor of the month many are saying they are for growth. How can bonds grow when the best they can do at maturity is return the capital invested? That is a zero sum game, for every winner there has to be a loser. Stocks on the other hand grow because the companies behind them...
by alpine_boglehead
Wed Aug 21, 2019 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investment complexity is appealing and simplicity isn't
Replies: 65
Views: 3803

Re: Why investment complexity is appealing and simplicity isn't

For those missing the complexity in boglehead-style investing - I don't think that investing in an stock index fund is as simple as it seems. There's millions of people trading shares setting market prices, companies issuing shares etc. Index providers evaluate all this and produce indexes from that...
by alpine_boglehead
Wed Aug 21, 2019 3:24 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: VWRD vs VWRA - Dividends Calculation
Replies: 22
Views: 1688

Re: VWRD vs VWRA - Dividends Calculation

In short, there are several levels of taxation. Level 1 on the level of the asset, on the level of the fund and 3rd on the level of the investor. The latter one is determined by your country. With accumulating funds you save level 2 and 3. With the not-distributed dividends (level 1 taxes subtracte...
by alpine_boglehead
Wed Aug 21, 2019 3:20 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: VWRD vs VWRA - Dividends Calculation
Replies: 22
Views: 1688

Re: VWRD vs VWRA - Dividends Calculation

I assume you mean the US withholding tax which is 15% for Ireland-domiciled ETFs (not necessarily for mutual funds). VWRD contains other countries with lower withholding taxes, leading to about 12% - you can verify that by checking the annual report. Here's my calculation of what gets lost in VWRD a...
by alpine_boglehead
Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing with ballooning us debt levels?
Replies: 22
Views: 1936

Re: Investing with ballooning us debt levels?

And yet because you don’t know when the ticking bomb will explode, there’s not much you can do? The economy and thus investing has a billion moving parts, with even more interactions. Maybe debt is on a bad way, but technology's positive influence cancels that out? It's essentially unknowable what ...
by alpine_boglehead
Tue Aug 20, 2019 12:15 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: EU-Italy Portfolio Review
Replies: 8
Views: 598

Re: EU-ITALY PORFOLIO REVIEW

The overall picture sounds simple and good - nice work. 2. do i need to file an income tax return or should i ask that on my broker? That really depends on the tax laws in your country (i.e. Italy, if you owe your taxes there). There's a Bogleheads wiki page on Italy which says this: from harmonized...
by alpine_boglehead
Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:42 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Broker Diversification
Replies: 23
Views: 1659

Re: Broker Diversification

As far as I know, holdings in brokerage accounts in the EU are insured only up to EUR 20,000 (e.g. if the broker steals/misappropriates your holdings, if the funds just lose value, that's of course not insured) - this is lower than the 100,000 deposit insurance (FDIC insurance in US parlance) for al...
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Aug 08, 2019 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 year treasury yield
Replies: 34
Views: 2910

Re: 10 year treasury yield

Currently Bloomberg reports 30 year German bonds to have a -0.04% yield. Even in the negative interest rate countries, there are still bank accounts paying positive rates. I expect we would have something similar here in the US. That's true, for the moment. Banks haven't dared lowering rates on reta...
by alpine_boglehead
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with the Sharpe ratio?
Replies: 11
Views: 1093

Re: What's wrong with the Sharpe ratio?

There's something wrong with probably most one-dimensional indicators (which humans love). Beware of them and ask questions ...

There the saying that the average patient in the hospital has a body temperature of 98.6°F.
by alpine_boglehead
Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12340
Views: 2130561

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Wait, what? :confused I thought BH's are in for the long haul and aren't pre-occupied with the daily gyrations of the market? Am I missing something, or are there hypocrites among us? You're missing the fact that we are all just innocently checking for juicy ripe tax-losses to havest. You caught me...
by alpine_boglehead
Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:53 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: S&P500 ETF Domiciled in Ireland
Replies: 3
Views: 378

Re: S&P500 ETF Domiciled in Ireland

If your broker offers after-hours trading, you can check that the ETFs are also down 3+ %. But I suspect you will get better spreads/prices on the open market (during it's opening hours).
by alpine_boglehead
Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to take out the canes
Replies: 19
Views: 4294

Re: Time to take out the canes

Girya wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:42 pm
Takes some nerve and discipline to plow money into the market on a day like today, but that's just what I did..... :shock:
The percentage drop is one thing, but on a price level, the S&P 500 is where is was last seen 2 months ago.
by alpine_boglehead
Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:42 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [EU-Belgium] Optimal portfolio to FIRE?
Replies: 14
Views: 1251

Re: [EU-Belgium] Optimal portfolio to FIRE?

You have 85% of your portfolio in equities and then worry about currency risk? I don't have numbers at hand, but my impression is that the volatility of equities far outweighs currency volatility. Well, according to the article of Siamond, currency risk can be a problem exacerbating the normal port...
by alpine_boglehead
Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:57 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [EU-Belgium] Optimal portfolio to FIRE?
Replies: 14
Views: 1251

Re: [EU-Belgium] Optimal portfolio to FIRE?

You have 85% of your portfolio in equities and then worry about currency risk? I don't have numbers at hand, but my impression is that the volatility of equities far outweighs currency volatility. Also, I can't look into the future, but I think there are significant structural risks to the Euro (whi...
by alpine_boglehead
Mon Jul 29, 2019 11:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on P2P Lending
Replies: 37
Views: 2778

Re: Thoughts on P2P Lending

One observation on the low returns that other people posted about. It has been around ten years since the last recession and they may have been getting low returns during the "good times" when unemployment has been very low. I would think that in a major recession there is a lot of risk that P2P co...
by alpine_boglehead
Sun Jul 28, 2019 1:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Regression to Mean - whats the next Armageddon for stocks?
Replies: 22
Views: 2323

Re: Regression to Mean - whats the next Armageddon for stocks?

My speculation is that the next real crash (complete loss of confidence in stocks by most people including all of us), will be something different than in the past and hard to predict. One scenario is crypto. With Facebook coming in suppose crypto gets huge and disrupts all real currencies, driving...
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Jul 25, 2019 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a High Tech Bubble in S&P 500 & Total Market?
Replies: 152
Views: 10935

Re: Is there a High Tech Bubble in S&P 500 & Total Market?

I will point out that there are other big differences from 2000 -- IPO's aren't happening every day at high (ridiculous) valuations, and the 'average Joe' isn't talking about the stock market and how to make a killing. Both of those phenomena were prevalent back then; I recall them well: anyone her...
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Jul 25, 2019 10:23 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: New Accumulating Vanguard ETFs for EU Investors
Replies: 7
Views: 1344

Re: New Accumulating Vanguard ETFs for EU Investors

Good news, thanks for posting. It's already trading on XETRA (German stock exchange) alright, but obviously there's not much volume yet. Sites like justETF.com and the degiro broker haven't picked it up yet, but that shouldn't take too long. Competition is always good, but I'm wondering with many ne...
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Jul 25, 2019 10:10 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: What do you think about SPDR MSCI World UCITS ETF?
Replies: 15
Views: 1469

Re: What do you think about SPDR MSCI World UCITS ETF?

How is it different from Lyxor Core MSCI World (DR) UCITS ETF ? Also accumulating and with the same TER 0.12%. Single difference I see is domicile: Luxembourg. From my recollection of tax treaties, the Ireland fund will pay 15% taxes on US dividends whereas the Luxembourg fund pays 30% taxes on US ...
by alpine_boglehead
Mon Jul 22, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One bad decision - examples?
Replies: 67
Views: 7297

Re: One bad decision - examples?

One of the great virtues of Boglehead philosophy is that by having simple rules & bright lines, sure maybe you miss out on some optimal something or other, but you also avoid lots of mistakes. That's it. One way you can view the human mind is as a huge collections of reaction patterns. If you are a...
by alpine_boglehead
Sun Jul 21, 2019 1:59 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Overseas investor [Hong Kong]
Replies: 15
Views: 1171

Re: Overseas investor [Hong Kong]

Thanks for your reply, but VWRD has a much higher expenses ratio and it holds less companies as compared with VT. It does not include small cap. Is it a concern if one want to diversify risk? Are there any suggestions on bond index fund which also listed in UK? The already suggested AGGG/AGGU bond ...
by alpine_boglehead
Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will you buy Total Bond with a negative yield?
Replies: 112
Views: 13155

Re: Will you buy Total Bond with a negative yield?

It's a reality where I live. Anyone investing in total international bond index also holds German bonds, which according to Bloomberg currently has these yields: 2y -0.75% 5y -0.60% 10y -0.26% 30y 0.32% One of my online brokerage accounts pays -0.4% on the associated cash account. You can (so far) e...
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:30 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Doesn't cash beat bonds for individual investors?
Replies: 4
Views: 935

Re: Doesn't cash beat bonds for individual investors?

Assuming most individual investors don't need to invest hundreds of millions (like an institutional investor) but rather -at most- have a few hundred thousand EUR, why would any individual prefer negative-interest government bonds over government insured savings accounts yielding at least 0,11% ? T...
by alpine_boglehead
Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: De-Risking and Diversification aren't the same thing.
Replies: 106
Views: 8550

Re: De-Risking and Diversification aren't the same thing.

Very interesting post, thanks very much. Thanks for the great original content. Appreciate you taking the time to make this post with clear explanation. Now if only there were another half dozen asset classes like equities out there with similar expected return and minimal correlation :) It finally ...
by alpine_boglehead
Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demographics are Not Destiny (due to Automation)
Replies: 22
Views: 2215

Re: Demographics are Not Destiny (due to Automation)

nedsaid wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:46 pm
I guess I will need to consider my future robot caregiver in my will. :wink:
HAL9000 : Affirmative, Ned. I read you.
by alpine_boglehead
Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demographics are Not Destiny (due to Automation)
Replies: 22
Views: 2215

Re: Demographics are Not Destiny (due to Automation)

Great post as always, thanks. Combining this finding with the insight (e.g. from this thread by SimpleGift :D ) that GDP growth and stock returns are not really correlated, I wouldn't know what to make of it, except that it adds support to the nobody-knows-nothing hypothesis. My takeaway is once mor...
by alpine_boglehead
Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone itching to dabble in crypto?
Replies: 46
Views: 3362

Re: Anyone itching to dabble in crypto?

No. It's pure speculation. No expected return, no intrinsic value, and even if crypto eventually replaces conventional currency, which one should you pick and is the potential future winner even around today? I also have no urge to buy individual stocks from Russia, even though these are less volati...
by alpine_boglehead
Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: Probabilities, Truth, and Consequences
Replies: 40
Views: 4197

Re: Allan Roth: Probabilities, Truth, and Consequences

If you’re going to have a 90% equity drop in your mind experiment, you also need make a mind experiment with a 95% real bond drop, which is less than what other countries have experienced. In my grandfather's attic there are some pounds of colorful paper, which once must have been worth a small for...
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Jun 20, 2019 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?
Replies: 44
Views: 5134

Re: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?

Who knows. The biggest part of the portfolio is long-term treasury bonds. This chart says that 30-year yields were about 9% in mid-1989. So if you put a lump sum in the portfolio in 1989 (and just held it until today), you'd have held 30-year treasuries yielding 9% nominal, each and every year. True...
by alpine_boglehead
Thu Jun 20, 2019 10:16 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Difference in US Withholding Tax for Vanguard Ireland Funds vs ETFs
Replies: 4
Views: 705

Re: Difference in US Withholding Tax for Vanguard Ireland Funds vs ETFs

Can anyone explain why the mutual fund is paying 30% US withholding tax while the ETFs is just paying 15%? Odd indeed. The UK domiciled 'Vanguard US Equity Index Fund' shows 14.48% US tax. This is a UK OEIC (unit trust, mutual fund), not an ETF. Annual report https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/rs/g...
by alpine_boglehead
Sat Jun 08, 2019 1:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are market downturns & crashes really driven by fear?
Replies: 23
Views: 1947

Re: Are market downturns & crashes really driven by fear?

And, in a recession, there will be more sellers than buyers. So, the stock market will go down. Really?! The simple, self-evident fact is that when "everyone" is buying, someone else is selling, dollar for dollar. And when "everyone" is selling, someone else is buying. This is the enternal reality ...
by alpine_boglehead
Thu May 30, 2019 1:34 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Difference in US Withholding Tax for Vanguard Ireland Funds vs ETFs
Replies: 4
Views: 705

Difference in US Withholding Tax for Vanguard Ireland Funds vs ETFs

While comparing the annual reports of two seemingly identical funds from Vanguard, both domiciled in Ireland, I've come across a strange divergence regarding the US dividend withholding tax, with the mutual fund version obviously leaking money due to disadvantageous tax treatment. Short intro to thi...
by alpine_boglehead
Thu May 23, 2019 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why will US or global stocks continue to grow in the future and forever?
Replies: 20
Views: 1237

Re: Why will US or global stocks continue to grow in the future and forever?

I'm also thinking about this from time to time. Sure, there's the possibility of wars, pandemics, and other bad scenarios. But even in a normal case ... economic activity is basically the transformation from the current state (of the environment, your company, yourself, whatever) into a more valuabl...