Search found 183 matches

by GLState
Tue Jul 16, 2019 7:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2 to 4 fund YTD numbers from fellow Bogleheads.
Replies: 10
Views: 754

Re: 2 to 4 fund YTD numbers from fellow Bogleheads.

Yes goingup , you're right. Corrected my initial post and updated all values to 7/16/19 data. I assume that the OP is referring to the "traditional" boglehead 3 fund and a 4-fund portfolio (60/40) would be similar to the Life Strategy Moderate Growth fund (VSMGX). The OPs best course of action is to...
by GLState
Tue Jul 16, 2019 5:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2 to 4 fund YTD numbers from fellow Bogleheads.
Replies: 10
Views: 754

Re: 2 to 4 fund YTD numbers from fellow Bogleheads.

Use portfoliovisualizer.com ... Enter the funds, allocations, and time periods of your choice in the "Backtest Portfolio" section. Or use the data found on Vanguard's site... VTI (Total Stock Market) has a YTD return of 21.10% VXUS (Total Int'l) has a YTD return of 13.51% TBM (Total Bond Market) has...
by GLState
Sun Jul 14, 2019 5:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Direct TV vs Nextstar issue
Replies: 9
Views: 594

Re: Direct TV vs Nextstar issue

These disputes have happened quite often, but usually are settled before actually cutting the feed. I gather this has been happening before, but am not sure if the settlement is a few weeks or many months. Any observations to share? I don't remember these disputes ever lasting this long. I have no ...
by GLState
Sun Jul 14, 2019 4:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Direct TV vs Nextstar issue
Replies: 9
Views: 594

Re: Direct TV vs Nextstar issue

I'm on UVerse. We lost the NBC station in my area. My neighbor put up a small OTA antenna on his roof, as the NBC station is close enough to get good reception. My wife is missing one of her favorite programs, but is getting accustomed to watching news and weather on ABC. Nexstar might find they hav...
by GLState
Thu Jul 04, 2019 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hidden Vanguard etf?
Replies: 20
Views: 3219

Re: Hidden Vanguard etf?

If you don't see the link to "Financial Professionals" on the Vanguard Home Page, you, at some point, chose to make the Personal Investors site the default. This would have been shown at the top of the page.... "Would you like to come directly to Vanguard's website for personal investors when you vi...
by GLState
Wed Jul 03, 2019 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doubling Your Money
Replies: 47
Views: 11504

Re: Doubling Your Money

. And that's with dividends reinvested! :oops: After inflation it would've been even worse! I don't think stock price charts you find on Vanguard, Fidelity, Yahoo, etc. include dividends. It's a price history chart, isn't it? Most of the graphs you'll see on Vanguard, Fidelity, or Schwab are Growth...
by GLState
Sun Jun 30, 2019 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculating VTSAX(or total stock) return without dividends reinvested
Replies: 13
Views: 928

Re: Calculating VTSAX(or total stock) return without dividends reinvested

Fund companies only provide total return data so we can compare our fund returns with other fund's returns. If you want to know return without dividends, you'll have to download the price data from yahoo or other providers to calculate the return yourself. In addition to accounting for capital gains...
by GLState
Sun Jun 30, 2019 10:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's tripping the trap now?
Replies: 12
Views: 1662

Re: What's tripping the trap now?

Rats can push their way out of the large Victor type rat traps. Tomcat Secure Kill Rat Traps (available at Home Depot) work well in my experience... and you won't catch yourself.
by GLState
Sun Jun 30, 2019 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simplicity (Three Fund) vs. Return (Slightly more complex):
Replies: 45
Views: 3136

Re: Simplicity (Three Fund) vs. Return (Slightly more complex):

I think you might be cherry picking the period to back test in regards to the permanent portfolio. It seemed to do well 2005-2019 because that coincided with a period that gold did unusually well. Take a look at PRPHX, a fund set up like the permanent portfolio. Over a ten-year period it delivered ...
by GLState
Sat Jun 29, 2019 4:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Newbie question: is Index Fund something that you don't "contribute?"
Replies: 14
Views: 1320

Re: Newbie question: is Index Fund something that you don't "contribute?"

If you're at Fidelity, invest in Fidelity index funds. FZROX is a Fidelity Total Market Index Fund.

I would suggest doing some reading before investing. See the "Getting Started" section of the Wiki. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started
by GLState
Sat Jun 29, 2019 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simplicity (Three Fund) vs. Return (Slightly more complex):
Replies: 45
Views: 3136

Re: Simplicity (Three Fund) vs. Return (Slightly more complex):

Rather than evaluating a portfolio just by return, it might be a good idea to see the risk that we're taking to get that return. Here's 3 portfolios on PortfolioVisualizer. Portfolio 1 is Three Fund. Portfolio 2 is Swensen's Lazy. Portfolio 3 is the Permanent Portfolio. The returns are similar, but ...
by GLState
Sat Jun 29, 2019 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simplicity (Three Fund) vs. Return (Slightly more complex):
Replies: 45
Views: 3136

Re: Simplicity (Three Fund) vs. Return (Slightly more complex):

To which "Three Fund Portfolio" are you comparing your returns. Some have only a token allocation to International and perhaps only 10% bonds. Others equal weight US and International with, perhaps, 40% bonds. The past returns are very different. A three fund portfolio is easy to live with. We aren'...
by GLState
Sat Jun 29, 2019 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Analyzing Mutual Fund Overlap
Replies: 5
Views: 417

Re: Analyzing Mutual Fund Overlap

Find the fund overlap for ETFs here: https://www.etfrc.com/funds/overlap.php Find correlations for specific time frames (correlations vary) with PortfolioVisualizer ... set up two or three portfolios, each with a single fund or ETF ... monthly correlation is found in the "Assets" tab. https://www.po...
by GLState
Fri Jun 28, 2019 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What percentage of total portfolio in REIT's do you have? Why? . . Why not?
Replies: 229
Views: 15109

Re: What percentage of total portfolio in REIT's do you have? Why?

I don't hold the REIT fund, so I don't have an opinion on what the future holds. I see REITs as a sector, rather than as an asset class. If I were to overweight, I would tend toward small or value, rather than REITs. $10,000 invested in VGSIX in 2007 would have been worth only $3442 by Feb 2009 ......
by GLState
Fri Jun 28, 2019 9:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What percentage of total portfolio in REIT's do you have? Why? . . Why not?
Replies: 229
Views: 15109

Re: What percentage of total portfolio in REIT's do you have? Why?

I don't hold the REIT fund, so I don't have an opinion on what the future holds. I see REITs as a sector, rather than as an asset class. If I were to overweight, I would tend toward small or value, rather than REITs. $10,000 invested in VGSIX in 2007 would have been worth only $3442 by Feb 2009 ... ...
by GLState
Thu Jun 27, 2019 9:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What percentage of total portfolio in REIT's do you have? Why? . . Why not?
Replies: 229
Views: 15109

Re: What percentage of total portfolio in REIT's do you have? Why?

Since 2008, adding 10% or 20% REITs to a Total Market portfolio hasn't helped or hurt. The final balances for all 3 portfolios are within a few dollars and the standard deviation and drawdown are only slightly worse for the REIT portfolios. The correlation between TM and REITs was 0.73 From 1997 thr...
by GLState
Thu Jun 27, 2019 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I get S&P returns with dividends?
Replies: 7
Views: 690

Re: How do I get S&P returns with dividends?

S&P 500 Calculator: https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ Shows with and without dividends reinvested.
by GLState
Sun Jun 23, 2019 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: and ETF of ETFs?
Replies: 7
Views: 778

Re: and ETF of ETFs?

for bonds .... Vanguard Total World Bond ETF (BNDW) . VT (World Stock) & BNDW(World Bond)

Vanguard Life Strategy or Target Retirement funds hold indexed US and Int'l Stocks and Bonds ... though they are not available as ETFs.
by GLState
Sat Jun 22, 2019 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: understanding S&P 600 risk
Replies: 4
Views: 935

Re: understanding S&P 600 risk

If you're just using past performance to pick funds, small cap value as an asset class, since 1972, has a much greater return, along with a smaller standard deviation, than small cap blend. Also Large Value has beaten Total Market since '72. But... it would have been hard to invest in small cap valu...
by GLState
Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA portfolio ideas
Replies: 12
Views: 1096

Re: Dividend investing/ allocation

Only totals to 95%. SPHD only holds 50 stocks. 40 (80%) of those are also in VYM. VIG holds 184 stocks ... 61 (33%) of those are in VYM. You're looking at funds with quite a bit of overlap.
by GLState
Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dump FTCOX for 4-fund or just some? When is best?
Replies: 2
Views: 199

Re: Dump FTCOX for 4-fund or just some? When is best?

FTCOX A shares have a 5.5% load. Even without taking the 5.5% load into account, the A shares have not performed as well as an 80 % US / 20% International portfolio of Vanguard S&P 500 / Total International over the last 1 year, 3 years, 5 years and 10 years. Life Strategy Growth has a larger alloca...
by GLState
Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Dividend ETF Offerings: VIG, VYM, VYMI
Replies: 7
Views: 923

Re: Vanguard Dividend ETF Offerings: VIG, VYM, VYMI

According to Morningstar, VIG (Dividend Appreciation ETF) has a 12 month yield of 1.98% vs VOO (S&P500) 2.02% and VTI (Total Market) 2.00%. Vanguard's Value ETF (VTV) has a 12 month yield of 2.69%. The ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) is popular among those who like Dividend strateg...
by GLState
Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Paul Merriman UBH vs Vanguard Mkt Cap model
Replies: 22
Views: 1916

Re: Paul Merriman UBH vs Vanguard Mkt Cap model

If you click on one of the portfolios, you will be taken to a list of the portfolio's components and recent returns along with the "as of" date.
by GLState
Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: why are Small Caps falling?
Replies: 118
Views: 10462

Re: why are Small Caps falling?

Will, I understand your point of view and agree that we can learn from the past. But, I have a problem with examples that go too far ... S&P 500 since 1927, for example https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data. They seem to know that the S&P 500 would exist 50 years in the futur...
by GLState
Tue Jun 11, 2019 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: why are Small Caps falling?
Replies: 118
Views: 10462

Re: Why are Small Caps falling?

You might want to read a few authors in addition to Paul Merriman. Merriman seems to prefer portfolios with a lot funds (Ultimate Buy and Hold), and these portfolios haven't performed any better than simpler portfolios (Total Stock, Total International, and Total Bond). I don't know what measure(s)...
by GLState
Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: why are Small Caps falling?
Replies: 118
Views: 10462

Re: Why are Small Caps falling?

VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Market) HAS captured the market value of Small and Mid cap returns. Actually it hasn't. If you backtest VTSMX vs VFINX starting from 1993 the ending balance is within a hair of each other as well as Annual Standard deviation. That isn't what I call capturing returns of S...
by GLState
Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ETF expense ratio vs performance
Replies: 6
Views: 623

Re: ETF expense ratio vs performance

According to Morningstar's Style Map, IHI contains much larger companies than XHE. IHI has 50% of its holdings in the top 5 companies. The difference in the components seems more important than the slight difference in expenses. XHE is likely more "different" than investing in a more general Health ...
by GLState
Thu Jun 06, 2019 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Large cap tilt?
Replies: 9
Views: 583

Re: Large cap tilt?

yes. people investing in sp500 funds are basically large cap tilting. sp500 only covers 80% of total market. there is significant performance difference between the two. If you use VTSMX (the investor shares of Total Market) instead of VTSAX, you'll see that there is little difference between S&P 5...
by GLState
Tue May 28, 2019 6:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Has anyone done well with value investing?
Replies: 11
Views: 1379

Re: Has anyone done well with value investing?

Value investing has done "well", just not as well as Blend or Growth over the past 10 years. Use PortfolioVisualizer's Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation to compare the returns of Growth, Blend, and Value Portfolios beginning 1972. Spoiler: a 1/3 allocation to LV, MV, SV handily beats Blend o...
by GLState
Sun May 26, 2019 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX CAGR vs Weight portfolios (VFIAX:VIMAX:VTMSX) returns & volatility
Replies: 2
Views: 243

Re: VTSAX CAGR vs Weight portfolios (VFIAX:VIMAX:VTMSX) returns & volatility

1: All three of your portfolios had drawdowns greater than 50% during 2008. If you held these portfolios during the Great Depression, you likely would have experienced drawdowns of 80-90%. It is impossible to know which assets and allocations will provide "every ounce of gain" in the future. It is n...
by GLState
Sun May 26, 2019 8:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend Growth Fund VDIGX
Replies: 14
Views: 2021

Re: Dividend Growth Fund VDIGX

The OP mentioned that VDIGX returned about 14%. They weren't considering Drawdowns, Sharpe, or Sortino ratios. If we only wanted high Sharpe ratios, we'd be in savings accounts. Since 2009, VDIGX had "good" years (beat the S&P500 and Total Market returns) in 2011, 2015, and 2018. VDIGX owns 41 stock...
by GLState
Sat May 25, 2019 8:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Modeling Software
Replies: 8
Views: 787

Re: Portfolio Modeling Software

That makes total sense! A follow up to this: I've run my current actively managed portfolio through PortfolioVisualer.com and compared it to a handful of the pre-loaded portfolio allocations and looked at the 20 year historically. What I found: My current portfolio seems to have mostly performed sl...
by GLState
Wed May 22, 2019 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regression to the Mean - and our money
Replies: 16
Views: 1640

Re: Regression to the Mean - and our money

Yes, by investing in index funds, we get the market return less low expenses. The average active investor gets the market return less higher expenses. Active investors pay more to attempt to "beat the market".
by GLState
Wed May 22, 2019 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regression to the Mean - and our money
Replies: 16
Views: 1640

Re: Regression to the Mean - and our money

Regression to the mean doesn't imply that someday hamburger will cost more than prime rib. However, if hamburger is extremely expensive this week (compared to its average price), it is likely to be cheaper the following week. Index investors enjoy a near market return, not an extreme return. Index f...
by GLState
Wed May 15, 2019 11:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help my broker is trying to freak me out
Replies: 94
Views: 14019

Re: Help my broker is trying to freak me out

[/quote] Thank you for this. I plan to sell international funds, did not list them here, into international such as VUSTX, and us funds into voo or similar. I agree about not selling all at once but some funds have fees close to or at 1% which will hurt over time. [/quote] VUSTX is Vanguard Long-Ter...
by GLState
Thu May 02, 2019 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 3 Fund Vs. Target Date 401K Dilemma
Replies: 21
Views: 2242

Re: 3 Fund Vs. Target Date 401K Dilemma

A tinkerer is just as apt to tinker with All-In-One funds (Target Date, Life Strategy, Balanced) as they are with a 3 fund portfolio. A tinkerer may decide they want a Target Date 2040 fund rather the a 2030 to get a higher allocation to stocks when times are good and go to a nearer target date with...
by GLState
Wed Feb 20, 2019 8:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do you handle Three-Fund Purchases without Partial Shares?
Replies: 17
Views: 926

Re: How do you handle Three-Fund Purchases without Partial Shares?

As an additional point for me to research, if I do decide to switch to mutual funds - I'd probably opt for Vanguard's. I noticed that some of the optimal three fund choices are discontinued to new investors. What are the new optimal offerings? The optimal three fund choices that you see as disconti...
by GLState
Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do you handle Three-Fund Purchases without Partial Shares?
Replies: 17
Views: 926

Re: How do you handle Three-Fund Purchases without Partial Shares?

With a mutual fund, we can buy partial shares. Mutual funds are easy to automate... contribute 101.35 each week, month, or whatever. Before retirement, I was at busy at work when the market was open. Automating mutual fund purchases was ... and still is ... a great option. I didn't know or care what...
by GLState
Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does anyone remember window/DOS batch file scripts?
Replies: 24
Views: 2434

Re: Does anyone remember window/DOS batch file scripts?

Thanks for the effort but, I need to ask, what benefit will the ecobee community get by having this script? The vast majority of users, I am one, just need the basic info provided by using the online data. In the Home IQ System Monitor the info here is more than enough to tweak the system to our li...
by GLState
Sat Dec 22, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does anyone remember window/DOS batch file scripts?
Replies: 24
Views: 2434

Re: Does anyone remember window/DOS batch file scripts?

If your data is in a csv file (comma separated values), it should be easy to read into Excel. Your data is a time series, so you probably don't want to throw out adjacent data simply because it hasn't changed ... your data points and graphs will have varying amounts of time from one data point to th...
by GLState
Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba Backtesting Healthcare fund
Replies: 3
Views: 334

Re: Simba Backtesting Healthcare fund

Using Portfolio Visualizer:

Vanguard Health Care Inv (VGHCX)
$10,000 Initial Amt.

Jan 1986 - Dec 2017
Final Balance $1,573,378
Inflation Adjusted $670,323
CAGR 16.57%
Stdev 14.12%
Best Year 60.56%
Worst Year -18.45%
Max Drawdown -33.17%
Sharpe Ratio 0.93
by GLState
Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Little love for Small and Mid Cap ETFs in a "minimalist" portfolio?
Replies: 18
Views: 1010

Re: Little love for Small and Mid Cap ETFs in a "minimalist" portfolio?

This thread does not strike me as a "I'm creating a portfolio" thread. It seems to be a "small caps have done well in the past, why buy anything else" thread. The OP is attracted to IJR because it is "up 25% this year". Perhaps, I've misunderstood the OP's intent. Most here have a market allocation ...
by GLState
Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Little love for Small and Mid Cap ETFs in a "minimalist" portfolio?
Replies: 18
Views: 1010

Re: Little love for Small and Mid Cap ETFs in a "minimalist" portfolio?

Portfolio Visualizer... from Jan 1972 to July 2018 ................... CAGR ..... StdDev ..... SharpeRatio Total Market.... 10.42 ...... 15.32 ........ 0.43 Small Cap....... 11.93 ...... 19.25 ........ 0.45 Small Value..... 14.33 ...... 17.70 ........ 0.59 Notice the Sharpe Ratios for Total Market a...
by GLState
Mon Aug 27, 2018 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Little love for Small and Mid Cap ETFs in a "minimalist" portfolio?
Replies: 18
Views: 1010

Re: Little love for Small and Mid Cap ETFs in a "minimalist" portfolio?

Small Caps are getting a lot of attention this year because they are doing well. Remember all of the posts last year about adding International & Emerging Markets when they were doing well. Look back in discussions and you'll see times when Gold and REITs and GNMAs were hot topics. Chasing stocks, s...
by GLState
Mon Aug 27, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Little love for Small and Mid Cap ETFs in a "minimalist" portfolio?
Replies: 18
Views: 1010

Re: Little love for Small and Mid Cap ETFs in a "minimalist" portfolio?

I like to do these asset class comparisons with actual funds or ETFs. I don't know what PortfolioVisualizer is using for asset classes, but ... we can't buy indexes. We buy funds that have expenses and taxes. Also there are many discussions here that say small cap fund X contains too many mid-caps t...
by GLState
Sat Aug 25, 2018 8:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Basic Question
Replies: 6
Views: 586

Re: Basic Question

Jack Vogle is at Alpha Architect...https://alphaarchitect.com/user/jack.vogel%2c.phd/ . He's been a guest on the Meb Faber podcast.

By holding Value and Growth you've created a Blend with a slight tilt to value. It likely won't perform significantly better or worse than Total Stock Market.
by GLState
Sat Aug 25, 2018 8:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is Treasury Direct worth the hassle?
Replies: 52
Views: 6441

Re: Is Treasury Direct worth the hassle?

It is easy to open a Treasury Direct account, to fund it, and get your money out. Open an account to learn if it is "worth it" for you. IMO, Ibonds are a great investment, but with an limit of $10,000 / year, it is hard to make IBond's a significant factor in our total portfolio. I didn't find Treas...
by GLState
Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX minimum vs IRA maximum
Replies: 9
Views: 899

Re: VTSAX minimum vs IRA maximum

You could buy the ETF (symbol VTI) or VTSMX (Investor Share Class with a $3000 minimum)