Search found 94 matches

by GLState
Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Active vs. index funds in a recession:
Replies: 11
Views: 714

Re: Active vs. index funds in a recession:

"The belief that bear markets favor active management is a myth. A majority of active funds in eight of the nine domestic equity style boxes were outperformed by indices in the negative markets of 2008. The bear market of 2000 to 2002 showed similar outcomes." SPIVA report for 2008 http://www.spindi...
by GLState
Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Almost fell off my chair...
Replies: 16
Views: 4281

Re: Almost fell off my chair...

Ever since following the BH way of investing, life has become less stressful. With the "set it and forget it" mentality, I haven't checked my basic VG three fund portfolio in some months. Logged in this morning just to ensure I am hitting my 401k contribution limit with my last check for the year.....
by GLState
Wed Dec 13, 2017 6:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quicken Files Corrupting Often-Anyone else?
Replies: 7
Views: 554

Re: Quicken Files Corrupting Often-Anyone else?

I've been using Quicken since it was a DOS checkbook program without any problems with file corruption. I would agree with the other poster that suggested a hard drive problem. Your hard drive manufacturer should have a program available to check your drive's health.
by GLState
Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stupid question about VTSAX
Replies: 6
Views: 1108

Re: Stupid question about VTSAX

You can see the all of the stocks held by the Vanguard Total Market fund as of 10/31/2017 here:
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/FundsA ... irect=true
by GLState
Sat Dec 02, 2017 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Advantage to Purchasing Funds in Round Lots?
Replies: 9
Views: 529

Re: Any Advantage to Purchasing Funds in Round Lots?

I'm saving up to buy a round lot of Berkshire Hathaway A. The piggy bank is getting heavy.
by GLState
Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is an investment account the best choice for me (new guy)
Replies: 89
Views: 4039

Re: Is an investment account the best choice for me (new guy)

If you signed up for "paperless", you'll get an email telling you that it is available on the Vanguard site. All statements and transaction information is available on the Vanguard site. You've bought funds, so you should have transaction info available.
by GLState
Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is an investment account the best choice for me (new guy)
Replies: 89
Views: 4039

Re: Is an investment account the best choice for me (new guy)

Sometime before the end of the year, many funds will pay out dividends. Your statement will show all the reinvestment details. I reinvest dividends and capital gains.
by GLState
Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reduce risk tolerance - Vanguard Target Funds
Replies: 43
Views: 1773

Re: Reduce risk tolerance - Vanguard Target Funds

The level of the Dow shouldn't have any bearing on your risk tolerance. For me it does, given my age and the $ amount accumulated in my 401k and being in 2050 fund. Heck, if Dow were to double in next year or two, I might sell-all and get out of the market! If the Dow doubled and you got out of the...
by GLState
Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reduce risk tolerance - Vanguard Target Funds
Replies: 43
Views: 1773

Re: Reduce risk tolerance - Vanguard Target Funds

The level of the Dow shouldn't have any bearing on your risk tolerance.
by GLState
Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consumer Confidence Peaks & Market Peaks?
Replies: 2
Views: 333

Re: Consumer Confidence Peaks & Market Peaks?

Consumer Confidence has hit "multi-year" highs numerous times since 2008 without a crash or decline (see St Louis Fed link below). Recently, U of Michigan and the Conference Board indicators have continued to increase, while the Yale measure had a sharp drop. It seems logical that Consumer Confidenc...
by GLState
Sun Nov 26, 2017 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Common Sense on Mutual Funds
Replies: 20
Views: 2100

Re: Common Sense on Mutual Funds

A three fund portfolio of US stocks, international stocks, and total bond is one of the most recommended portfolios on the boglehead site which seems to go against Mr. Bogle's view of international equity being unnecessary. Mr. Bogle does unwillingly "agree" to no more than 20% international equity....
by GLState
Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just Moved $1.6MM from 401K to Vanguard IRAs - now what?
Replies: 10
Views: 1983

Re: Just Moved $1.6MM from 401K to Vanguard IRAs - now what?

You're making your portfolio more complex that it needs to be with your "nods to Merriman". What are your reasons to go beyond a Life Strategy fund, a Total World/ Total Bond combo, or a simple three fund portfolio. Why add treasuries and short term bonds if you're going to buy Total Bond. It seems ...
by GLState
Sat Nov 18, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Index Fund Arguments - Help staying the course.
Replies: 19
Views: 2572

Re: Anti-Index Fund Arguments - Help staying the course.

Active investing proponents often claim that active will outperform index investing during bad times. Standard & Poors refutes that argument in their 2008 SPIVA Report ( Standard & Poors Index vs Active) The belief that bear markets favor active management is a myth. A majority of active funds in ei...
by GLState
Fri Nov 17, 2017 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where did you first learn about investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 5213

Re: Where did you first learn about investing?

My mom was a stock and bond investor, so we always had BusinessWeek, Money, Kiplingers's, Sylvia Porter, Wall Street Journal, and other newspapers and magazines around. She signed my up for USA Today's stock picking contests. Those contests were quite advanced for their day....we had to call in our ...
by GLState
Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard portfolio allocation models for various years?
Replies: 3
Views: 521

Re: Vanguard portfolio allocation models for various years?

Have you looked at Simba's Backtesting Spreadsheet https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2520 or Portfolio Visualizer https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio . Either will do what I think you are looking for, but perhaps not as far back as you would like. If you look a...
by GLState
Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller is 'concerned' after lowest sentiment data readings in over 16 years
Replies: 8
Views: 2119

Re: Shiller is 'concerned' after lowest sentiment data readings in over 16 years

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence improved to "it's highest level in almost 17 years" in October. https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm The University of Michigan doesn't indicate any drastic changes in consumer sentiment in early November. http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu...
by GLState
Tue Nov 14, 2017 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller is 'concerned' after lowest sentiment data readings in over 16 years
Replies: 8
Views: 2119

Re: Shiller is 'concerned' after lowest sentiment data readings in over 16 years

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence improved to "it's highest level in almost 17 years" in October. https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm The University of Michigan doesn't indicate any drastic changes in consumer sentiment in early November. http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
by GLState
Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P/E ratio only 18??
Replies: 8
Views: 923

Re: P/E ratio only 18??

http://www.multpl.com/

According to S&P Dow Jones the trailing P/E Ratio is 23.30 as of June 30th, 2017. The Projected P/E Ratio is 18.34 as of Oct 31st..

WSJ ... http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html
by GLState
Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett 90/10 Portfolio vs Target Retirement
Replies: 29
Views: 3387

Re: Buffett 90/10 Portfolio vs Target Retirement

John Bogle also says "Forget the needle, buy the haystack". I see the US as only a part of a larger haystack (the world market). We wouldn't think of only buying stocks from the city or state where we were born or raised. Why buy only stocks from the country in which we were born and raised? Google,...
by GLState
Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to obtain (Taylor's) long term total bond returns
Replies: 10
Views: 1492

Re: Where to obtain (Taylor's) long term total bond returns

Evelyn ... The difference you see in Taylor's inflation numbers from published numbers is because he seems to be calculating change from the previous December CPI to the recent December's CPI. Taylor is comparing TBM with inflation, so is calculating the changes in values in a similar way. The FED c...
by GLState
Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to obtain (Taylor's) long term total bond returns
Replies: 10
Views: 1492

Re: Where to obtain (Taylor's) long term total bond returns

Another idea! Go to Portfolio Visualizer https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio and enter a portfolio of 100% VBMFX. Click the Analyze button. Scroll down and you'll see a bar chart of each year's returns. Mouse over each bar to see the value. 1987 1.54 last four years... 2013 -2.26 ...
by GLState
Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to obtain (Taylor's) long term total bond returns
Replies: 10
Views: 1492

Re: Where to obtain (Taylor's) long term total bond returns

In the page that you linked to, the 15.2% return for 1986 seems extremely high. VBMFX (Total Bond- Investors) has an inception date of 12/11/86. VBMFX began trading 12/11/86 at $10. It finished the year (12/31/86) at $9.94. No dividends were paid.
by GLState
Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to obtain (Taylor's) long term total bond returns
Replies: 10
Views: 1492

Re: Where to obtain (Taylor's) long term total bond returns

Total Return assumes the reinvestment of all dividends. If dividends are not reinvested (spent), investors wouldn't see the same returns. Morningstar is a reliable source for fund return data. You can find inflation data at any of the links below: https://www.minneapolisfed.org/community/teaching-ai...
by GLState
Tue Oct 31, 2017 2:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unable to Escape from Quicken Island ...
Replies: 66
Views: 6311

Re: Unable to Escape from Quicken Island ...

I've been a Quicken user since it was a DOS checkbook program. I always looked forward to the new versions. But, it has been a long time that any new features have been useful to me. I used Managing Your Money and Microsoft Money in tandem with Quicken for a number years. They've left us. I've looke...
by GLState
Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bi-weekly rebalancing with purchases a bad idea?
Replies: 14
Views: 636

Re: Bi-weekly rebalancing with purchases a bad idea?

I don't think you are doing anything studid or dangerous, but you're probably not affecting your risk or return in a meaningful way either. Shooting for a precise allocation bi-weekly seems to me to be wasted time and effort. Your method may have more benefit in a taxable account rather that a 401K ...
by GLState
Sun Oct 29, 2017 7:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Patient but not that lucky
Replies: 42
Views: 3003

Re: Patient but not that lucky

It is unlikely that we would have invested enough in AMZN, GOOG, APPL, FB, etc to make a difference in our life...they would only have a small allocation in our portfolio. It is unlikely that we would have held these throughout their ups and downs. Would we have sold when we had a 10%, 20% or 50% ga...
by GLState
Thu Oct 26, 2017 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on what to do, vanguard or America Funds, roth or traditional
Replies: 9
Views: 686

Re: Advice on what to do, vanguard or America Funds, roth or traditional

You can move the traditional IRA to a Vanguard traditional IRA without paying taxes. There may be fees on the American Funds end, but you'll save much more in the long run. Call Vanguard and they'll take care of the process. You "could" leave the traditional IRA at American Funds for now and open a ...
by GLState
Thu Oct 26, 2017 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on what to do, vanguard or America Funds, roth or traditional
Replies: 9
Views: 686

Re: Advice on what to do, vanguard or America Funds, roth or traditional

American Funds are load funds . In your traditional IRA (old 401k), you are likely paying a 5 to 5.75% load to buy class A shares. In a 401k, loads are not usually assessed. Your old 401k would be better off at Vanguard, Fidelity, or Schwab. Your costs would be much lower. In your new 401k, American...
by GLState
Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New for Vanguard!
Replies: 28
Views: 3999

Re: New for VANGUARD!

Is it the Wellington and Wellesley names that are the attraction? What if they were the Smith and Jones funds? As of now, they are just two new funds with familiar names with no holdings or history. I wouldn't be in any hurry to buy. I'd rather buy a Target or Life Strategy Fund.
by GLState
Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 63
Views: 9133

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

For R users, a new version of quantmod (0.4-11) has been released. Yahoo has been slowly improving their data and with this release of quantmod, R with yahoo data seems to be back to normal. My preliminary testing seems OK. Alpha Vantage is an additional option for data. Just register on their site ...
by GLState
Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Making my own Total US stock market fund.
Replies: 20
Views: 1847

Re: Making my own Total US stock market fund.

neilpilot wrote:
Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:05 am
Why am I confused by this discussion? Isn't VTSMX, or VTSAX, or VTI a total US Stock Market fund?
According to the OP, a Total Market fund (VTSMX, VYSAX, or VTI) isn't offered in their 401K. They want to replicate the TM fund with large, mid-cap, and small funds.
by GLState
Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone feel like talking "R"
Replies: 40
Views: 9278

Re: Anyone feel like talking "R"

I use R to test the ideas, concepts, and portfolios found on the boglehead's forum and elsewhere. In R, it is easy to compare the past risks and returns of the 3 fund, lazy portfolios, Larry portfolio, etc. I can see the effects of adding gold, REITS, or small value to a portfolio. I can test if reb...
by GLState
Thu Jul 13, 2017 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 63
Views: 9133

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

It looks likes Yahoo is currently adjusting OHLCV for splits. Adj Close is adjusted for splits and dividends. I'm looking at IBM data to arrive at this conclusion. In 1962, IBM stock was around the $400 or $500 range if I remember correctly. From a .csv file downloaded today Date Open High Low Close...
by GLState
Tue Jun 06, 2017 7:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Boglehead Board Game!!
Replies: 31
Views: 2755

Re: Boglehead Board Game!!

You buy a $5000 wrist watch :D
by GLState
Sun Jun 04, 2017 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixing Yahoo Finance Macro - HELP
Replies: 10
Views: 1635

Re: Fixing Yahoo Finance Macro - HELP

Even if it's possible to come with work-arounds to get the historical data, it's practically useless unless Yahoo also resumes calculating the adjusted closing for dividends. Yahoo also provides dividend data. We'll have to use this dividend data to calculate our own adjusted close prices to calcul...
by GLState
Mon May 29, 2017 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: One Last Beginner Question Regarding Bonds
Replies: 26
Views: 2588

Re: One Last Beginner Question Regarding Bonds

I would suggest sticking with what you have. You don't know why the alternatives may be good choices. None of us know what the next crash will be like. Your portfolio is good enough. You seem to be planning for a crash and yet you have an 80/20 stock bond portfolio with a size & value tilt. Perhaps,...
by GLState
Fri May 26, 2017 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard vs higher cost bond funds
Replies: 10
Views: 782

Re: Vanguard vs higher cost bond funds

If you look at the PTRQX asset allocation on Morningstar you'll see that its bond holdings are 181.51% long, 85.98% short, for a net of 95.82% bonds. In the past, PTRQX has been "worth it" if return is your only concern. PTRQX is a "Total Return" bond fund, which has different goals than a "Total Bo...
by GLState
Thu May 25, 2017 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Index's Holding Cash? Why?
Replies: 7
Views: 1092

Re: Index's Holding Cash? Why?

It looks like PTTRX is shorting cash and bonds they don't like to buy more bonds that they do like. Personal capital must just be showing net...Morningstar shows short and long positions. edit: PTTRX is short 38.42% Cash and Net 138.17% Bonds (210.64% long, 72.47 short). http://beta.morningstar.com/...
by GLState
Thu May 25, 2017 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments
Replies: 74
Views: 7233

Re: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments

Hmm, interesting. But, let's say that I had created a portfolio containing these top-performing companies + 40% total bond fund, and held that portfolio for 40 years. Would the risk-adjusted returns (as measured, let's say, by the Sharpe ratio) have been as good as, or better, than a 60/40 Boglehea...
by GLState
Thu May 25, 2017 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments
Replies: 74
Views: 7233

Re: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments

Index investors know that we will never have the "best" returns, risk adjusted or not. There will always be an asset class or asset will have a higher return than our portfolio. We are content to share in the growth of the world economy by owning most of the corporations in the world. We'd likely ha...
by GLState
Wed May 24, 2017 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Convenient listing of additions and removals of companies in international indices?
Replies: 7
Views: 687

Re: Convenient listing of additions and removals of companies in international indices?

OK I will bite. I don't know if there is an official site but here is what I do. Because I am a world stock investor, I keep a spreadsheet which lists all the companies I own and how many dollars I have invested in them. Why? I don't worry about countries but when random news happens e.g. VW diesel...
by GLState
Mon May 22, 2017 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 63
Views: 9133

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

The yahoo data has changed and it doesn't look like it will be back as we knew it. In the one of the Yahoo support forums, a mod responded: Nixon Official 'Hoo Staff Nixon Official 'Hoo Staff ‎05-17-2017 02:59 PM Re: Is Yahoo! Finance API broken? Hi All - This feature was discontinued by the Finance...
by GLState
Sun May 21, 2017 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 235
Views: 12453

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

The "boglehead way" advocates investing in the Total Stock Market without regard to the political and economic climate. We hold the whole market without attempting to weed out "bad" stocks or sectors from the "good". We don't make buy and sell decisions based on past performance. Why shouldn't these...
by GLState
Sat May 20, 2017 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MarketWatch "Lazy Portfolios"
Replies: 10
Views: 2063

Re: MarketWatch "Lazy Portfolios"

The 2nd Grader's portfolio on MarketWatch is a three fund portfolio but it is not THE three fund portfolio. According to this boglehead page, https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-fund_portfolio , Taylor Larimore's Three Fund Portfolio is equal weight. "Vanguard funds From Vanguard's list of "core f...
by GLState
Thu May 18, 2017 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vangaurd ETF Live NAV?
Replies: 17
Views: 799

Re: Vangaurd ETF Live NAV?

Am I missing something, or is there not a way to compare Bid-Ask pricing live to determine if there is a premium or discount? I'm not sure how "live" it is, but Morningstar shows bid/ask spread along with discount/premium. The TDAmeritrade thinkorswim platform shows bid/ask spread can get the IV fo...