Search found 279 matches

by jbranx
Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long until we see negative ER funds?
Replies: 44
Views: 3119

Re: How long until we see negative ER funds?

I can't think of any reasons the Fidelity Zero funds would have more turnover or capital gains than any other index provider,Vanguard excepted as long as it has the patent to offset gains with the ETFs. Fidelity says it's buying the data from S&P, which would be the float-adjusted shares that every ...
by jbranx
Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is snp charging too much fees for indexing? [Standard-n-Poor index]
Replies: 18
Views: 1208

Re: Is snp charging too much fees for indexing?

This is solely from memory from the Vanguard/S&P suit and other info that has dribbled out over the decades, so with that caveat about faulty memory, pretty sure for the first couple decades Vanguard and all others paid about $10,000 per year for an S&P 500 index fund regardless of asset size. In th...
by jbranx
Thu Dec 27, 2018 12:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 85% of trading is on autopilot-wsj article
Replies: 14
Views: 2011

Re: 85% of trading is on autopilot-wsj article

I would guess if all the "recipe" trading done by algorithms, formulas of all kinds etc. were one directional it would be a concern because it might result in a cascade like portfolio insurance in Oct. 1987 when that vehicle took the market down well over 20% in one trading day. My guess is, however...
by jbranx
Wed Dec 26, 2018 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: muni bonds
Replies: 31
Views: 3258

Re: muni bonds

I'm as confused as the OP with the muni market. I'm looking to invest in an individual state muni fund with an expense ratio of .8. Is that too high? I plan on holding for 4-7 years.Unfortunately my state doesn't have a lot of muni funds and that is the one that is best and has the lowest ER. The o...
by jbranx
Wed Dec 26, 2018 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 96 percent of stocks are no better then TBills
Replies: 51
Views: 8005

Re: Hendrik Bessembinder paper, active over passive?

Professor Bessembinder's paper has been extensively discussed here in the past. Just google his name in the box above and you can see several threads on his work at ASU. Here is a link to one of the previous discussions:

viewtopic.php?t=209916
by jbranx
Tue Dec 25, 2018 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As of 12/26, should I be in cash?
Replies: 17
Views: 3597

Re: As of 12/26, should I be in cash?

I'm with the other posters here in recommending that you try a different approach to managing your money. You might start by simply buying and reading Jack Bogle's "Little Book of Common Sense Investing," 2017 edition. I'm familiar with IBD's approach and recall that O''Neil's "CANSLIM' system faile...
by jbranx
Sun Dec 16, 2018 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTEB vs. VWIUX Distribution yields
Replies: 12
Views: 592

Re: VTEB vs. VWIUX Distribution yields

Going back to the original question: Bond mutual funds have to pay distributions based on the yield to maturity of the bonds *at the time the fund acquired them*. VTEB has only been around since 2015. Over the period that the ETF has been in existence, rates have mostly been lower than now. As a re...
by jbranx
Sun Dec 16, 2018 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTEB vs. VWIUX Distribution yields
Replies: 12
Views: 592

Re: VTEB vs. VWIUX Distribution yields

Since you are in a very high tax state, you may want to evaluate a California specific fund--as maybe half of your muni allocation so as to not be over-exposed to one state--since those would be "double" tax exempt from both the feds and the Calif. treasury. You'll have to do some calculating to see...
by jbranx
Sun Dec 16, 2018 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTEB vs. VWIUX Distribution yields
Replies: 12
Views: 592

Re: VTEB vs. VWIUX Distribution yields

You can look at Ishares MUB as well since it and VTEB follow the same S&P national muni index. MUB shows distribution yield at 2.60% and SEC yield at 2.70%. Like the previous poster said, distribution yield looks backwards and reflects what an index tracker is doing vs. an active mutual fund. SEC yi...
by jbranx
Sun Dec 16, 2018 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTEB vs. VWIUX Distribution yields
Replies: 12
Views: 592

Re: VTEB vs. VWIUX Distribution yields

Probably a data error. Vanguard advisor website shows SEC yield for VTEB at 2.78% and VWIUX at 2.68%.

You can check the data here:

https://advisors.vanguard.com/web/c1/fa ... 2/overview
by jbranx
Sun Dec 16, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Contra Fund
Replies: 24
Views: 2109

Re: Fidelity Contra Fund

Every time I've considered Contrafund it doesn't appear to have much return advantage over IVW, the Ishares Growth segment of the 500. It has outperformed in some years but generates more cap gains than the index, and the ER is substantially higher at 74 bp vs. 18. Danoff is benchmarked against the ...
by jbranx
Sun Dec 16, 2018 12:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity as a one stop shop
Replies: 186
Views: 19652

Re: Fidelity as a one stop shop

very good Visa card with US Bank that gives you 2% on all transactions that you can deposit back into your account; ATM reimbursement; collision damage waiver on rental cars; Minor correction: the Fidelity Visa credit card is through Elan Financial, while the debit/ATM card is serviced through BNY ...
by jbranx
Sat Dec 15, 2018 10:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity as a one stop shop
Replies: 186
Views: 19652

Re: Fidelity as a one stop shop

I use my phone app to deposit all checks to Fidelity, simply take a photo of the check front and back, and presto, it shows up in your account. It's also easy to use their deposit slips in the checkbook to send them by mail. I can withdraw $1000 in cash at ATMs daily using the debit/cash card they p...
by jbranx
Sat Dec 15, 2018 10:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity as a one stop shop
Replies: 186
Views: 19652

Re: Fidelity as a one stop shop

Agree with the other replies: Fidelity has everything you need. If you happen to qualify for high net worth designation, you're in gravy. If you live close to a Fido branch, drive there with all your account information and they will take care of the paperwork. Easy to do online as well. Fidelity ad...
by jbranx
Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Closed End Funds For Retirement ?
Replies: 5
Views: 468

Re: Closed End Funds For Retirement ?

You might also want to check out Jason Zweig's column today in the WSJ about a fund that converted from open end to closed end and how that resulted in the shareholders getting greater exposure to an illiquid holding. Closed ends theoretically can benefit from holding less liquid investments, like s...
by jbranx
Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Closed End Funds For Retirement ?
Replies: 5
Views: 468

Re: Closed End Funds For Retirement ?

Closed end funds might once have been good for income and cap gains, but that era has passed. Burton Malkiel's early versions of "Random Walk Down Wall Street" even had the "Malkiel One Step," buying closed ends and waiting (hoping) for the discounts to disappear. There are lots of reasons that no l...
by jbranx
Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10835

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

I haven't had time to fully study his methodology, but I see from his Wikipedia page that he also is into earthquake forecasting etc. Reminds me of the late Joe Granville, a famous newsletter publisher who thrived and drove markets down on some days with bearish forecasts in the seventies thru the n...
by jbranx
Sat Nov 03, 2018 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Closed End Muni funds?
Replies: 6
Views: 547

Re: Closed End Muni funds?

There's always a rational explanation for why there are "bargains" in any market or asset class. In the case of muni closed end funds, you are facing: --illiquidity in most cases with a few exceptions like maybe Nuveen Muni Value (NUV) which trades several hundred thousand shares a day. It has a 4% ...
by jbranx
Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rate of return: includes or does not include dividends
Replies: 1
Views: 474

Re: Rate of return: includes or does not include dividends

Not sure which section of Fidelity you are referring to, but the returns they post under the "performance" tab are time/dollar weighted and do include dividends. Thus, the calculation adjusts for any monies added during the period, including reinvested dividends. It's like the XIRR formula in Excel ...
by jbranx
Sat Oct 27, 2018 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A simple moving average timing model using stocks and treasuries
Replies: 40
Views: 2829

Re: A simple moving average timing model using stocks and treasuries

If you want to check the real-world history of allocating between the S&P 500 and long treasuries in this case, look at the history of the Vanguard Asset Allocation Fund. It was started and run for many years by Bill Fouse, the founder of the very first index fund at the old Wells Fargo. I don't rem...
by jbranx
Fri Oct 26, 2018 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Peferred Stock ETF (PFF or PGX) in rising interest rate environment
Replies: 5
Views: 493

Re: Thoughts on Peferred Stock ETF (PFF or PGX) in rising interest rate environment

Another consideration to keep in mind is that preferreds are concentrated in the banking, reit, and utility sectors. None, with the exception of a few closed-end preferreds that are required by the '40 Act to have 2X coverage, have anywhere close to AAA ratings, though all in those two etf's are inv...
by jbranx
Fri Oct 26, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Peferred Stock ETF (PFF or PGX) in rising interest rate environment
Replies: 5
Views: 493

Re: Thoughts on Peferred Stock ETF (PFF or PGX) in rising interest rate invironment

Lowering the corporate tax rate has made preferreds less appealing to corporate buyers. While preferreds are higher in the corporate structure over common, they have characteristics that make them difficult to analyze. Most are callable within about five years at either $25 or $1000--depending on th...
by jbranx
Sat Oct 13, 2018 1:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Fidelity offer the best index products for a passive investor compared to Vanguard
Replies: 61
Views: 6358

Re: Does Fidelity offer the best index products for a passive investor compared to Vanguard

Fidelity says it has contracted with S&P Global Index group to provide the data for both Zero funds, so I would expect both of them to look pretty much like the indices every other total market indexer provides. Geode Capital, Fido's indexing unit, has long demonstrated that it knows how to do index...
by jbranx
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Go to Istanbul next week. Any suggestions
Replies: 50
Views: 3931

Re: Go to Istanbul next week. Any suggestions

Visit some of the food markets and mercantile markets. They are a delight with all the wares and the haggling. We took a tour of the underground water system that the Romans built; pretty impressive columns and engineering. The city is clean and friendly for the most part and quite gorgeous in many ...
by jbranx
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Implementing a QCD at Fidelity
Replies: 17
Views: 1442

Re: Implementing a QCD at Fidelity

My wife and I have done QCDs thru Fidelity the last two years by requesting checkbooks for our IRA accounts. Simple to do and then we simply write the checks to the charity and mail them directly. We keep those checkbooks well hidden so we don't inadvertently use them to pay for groceries! We keep c...
by jbranx
Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Enough. How do I invest in Australia. [as a US investor]
Replies: 63
Views: 5780

Re: Enough. How do I invest in Australia.

Australia is in its 26th year without a recession so far, a fair bit better than the rest of the developed world for sure. Apparently being recession proof for that long and having an export economy tied to China, the miracle growth story of the last half of the last century, is still not good enoug...
by jbranx
Thu Aug 16, 2018 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Foreign Sales for 2017
Replies: 0
Views: 212

S&P 500 Foreign Sales for 2017

S&P index group is out with its report of the 500's foreign sales for last year. They remain very robust at 43.62% of all sales. Here are the key details from the report: The percentage of products and services produced or sold by S&P 500 companies outside the U.S. equated to 43.62% for 2017, up fro...
by jbranx
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 172
Views: 12706

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

So is this a mild form of risk-parity trading or a different beast entirely?
by jbranx
Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Touring Singapore in October
Replies: 9
Views: 735

Re: Touring Singapore in October

Thanks for the super detailed replies! Does anyone have suggestions for tour operator or packages? I've been there many times on business and a couple times as a tourist. I would avoid a tour operator and instead research the sites you and the family are interested in. The metro line is cheap and g...
by jbranx
Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Files for Four Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER)
Replies: 798
Views: 81672

Re: Fidelity Files for two Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER total stock and total international mutual funds)

I was hoping this Fidelity move might lower my FFNOX (Four in One Index Fund) ER, but I just checked and all four index funds are the institutional shares, so not sure if those ER's are going down. The current stated ER for FFNOX is 13 bp, but there is a fee waiver in effect for only 8 bp. I hold th...
by jbranx
Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Files for Four Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER)
Replies: 798
Views: 81672

Re: Fidelity Files for two Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER total stock and total international mutual funds)

If one wants to speculate about the risks of securities lending, let's pose this question: If Fido lends securities and loses money, not unlike some money market funds that broke the buck and made the investors whole, one could presume--not assured-that corporate Fidelity would make the fund whole t...
by jbranx
Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Files for Four Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER)
Replies: 798
Views: 81672

Re: Fidelity Files for two Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER total stock and total international mutual funds)

Blackrock (Ishares) is down 5% at the moment on the Fido news. Meantime, here's ETF.com's description of the risks of securities lending: The Risks Of Securities Lending You’d think the biggest risk in securities lending is that the short-seller you lent shares to goes bankrupt. Fortunately, industr...
by jbranx
Wed Aug 01, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Files for Four Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER)
Replies: 798
Views: 81672

Re: Fidelity Files for two Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER total stock and total international mutual funds)

Back in the Gus Sauter days Vanguard sometimes beat the index benchmarks through clever trading of options, futures, etc. Haven't checked lately, but I presume all the indexers are wise to those moves today. One reason I like Fidelity over V. is that Fido guarantees if you are hacked that their insu...
by jbranx
Sat Jul 28, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?
Replies: 115
Views: 12643

Re: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?

A lot of these forecasting pundits base their arguments on the end of the business cycle--a sure recession is ahead--when that is about as unforecastable as anything else about the future. Australia, for example, has gone its 26th year without a recession. Obviously, there are unique situations ther...
by jbranx
Thu Jul 26, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FCA stock drops 15% following Marchionne's death: another argument against market cap weighting?
Replies: 45
Views: 3950

Re: FCA stock drops 15% following Marchionne's death: another argument against market cap weighting?

When we use the term "indexing" we are referring to a long history of attempting to determine if there is an optimal way to get the best investing results. Bill Fouse, who started the first index fund at Wells Fargo in the seventies, first tried managing an equal-weighted NYSE Composite. It failed m...
by jbranx
Thu Jul 26, 2018 2:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If financial markets shut down, temporarily...
Replies: 42
Views: 3183

Re: If financial markets shut down, temporarily...

There are a number of scenarios that could cause extended outages. An attack on electric power grids would be one, given the recent warning that hackers have penetrated utility computers. A nuclear plant accident at Indian Point nuclear plant just north of NYC on the Hudson might be another. A New M...
by jbranx
Thu Jul 26, 2018 2:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any Accountants here?
Replies: 18
Views: 3294

Re: Any Accountants here?

There are a number of threads on the topic of accounting careers on here; hit the google search on the top right. Here's one from earlier this year:

viewtopic.php?t=238618
by jbranx
Thu Jul 26, 2018 2:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FCA stock drops 15% following Marchionne's death: another argument against market cap weighting?
Replies: 45
Views: 3950

Re: FCA stock drops 15% following Marchionne's death: another argument against market cap weighting?

Market cap weighting is indexing; any other scheme is active management. I think that is my overstatement of what Gus Sauter, the long-term ex-manager of Vanguard's index funds, once said at a forum, maybe BH's. The point is a simple one: all the history of index success vs active mgt. is built on m...
by jbranx
Tue Jul 24, 2018 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why VTSAX did not align with S&P 500 today?
Replies: 12
Views: 2033

Re: Why VTSAX did not align with S&P 500 today?

Nasdaq was down, midcaps and small value were down, while large caps rallied. Not an unusual phenomenon and nothing to be concerned about. The Total Market is more diversified and has captured the very good performance of small caps this year vs the large caps.
by jbranx
Sun Jul 22, 2018 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity Risk Premium over Two Centuries, 1825-2017
Replies: 27
Views: 2809

Re: Equity Risk Premium over Two Centuries, 1825-2017

I can get 4.25% from my TIAA Traditional RC account. If I’m properly understanding the above numbers, the risk of stocks make them seem like a pretty unattractive option for new purchases in my 403b. Valuation and other fundamental information don't have a sufficiently strong record of predictabili...
by jbranx
Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does "Time in the Market" Heal All Portfolio Wounds?
Replies: 57
Views: 6026

Re: Does "Time in the Market" Heal All Portfolio Wounds?

Not many people know that all the markets in the US closed for a period during WW I. We were very lucky to recover so quickly from 9/11. Not totally unrelated events, from what I understand. The primary reason that all the stock markets in the U.S. were closed for months during 1914 was to keep to ...
by jbranx
Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does "Time in the Market" Heal All Portfolio Wounds?
Replies: 57
Views: 6026

Re: Does "Time in the Market" Heal All Portfolio Wounds?

Another good exercise, Todd, and especially a good reminder of past exuberance about an emerging market--in this case, the US at the turn of the 20th century. UK investors held investments in everything from railroads, canals, cattle farms in the West, to actual stock on the NYSE. British investors ...
by jbranx
Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good Books on Investment?
Replies: 14
Views: 1164

Re: Good Books on Investment?

Oh, so you read Jason Zweig and will follow his advice. That's not the advice of Benjamin Graham who died in 1976 which was the same year that the first retail index fund was available I think although an institutional index fund was available before that year. Mr Zweig did a good job subverting Gr...
by jbranx
Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: JFK Traverlers: How to go from NJ to JFK and the opposite?
Replies: 48
Views: 2518

Re: JFK Traverlers: How to go from NJ to JFK and the opposite?

My company and I always used AirBrook, based in NJ, but has Lincoln limos and also van shuttles that go from Newark to JFK. Very reliable and they will meet you at the baggage claim with a sign with your name on it. Go to this site to get an estimate of the charge:

http://www.airbrook.net/ol/
by jbranx
Mon Jul 16, 2018 3:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Fidelity Solo 401k: FFNOX or FSTMX to start?
Replies: 6
Views: 730

Re: New Fidelity Solo 401k: FFNOX or FSTMX to start?

I'm a fan of FFNOX. Joined when it first opened in 1999 and been very pleased with the performance and low fees. Effectively now the fee is only eight basis points, so it's a low cost four funder. Since it auto rebalances, I find it a convenient alternative to keeping all the funds in sync as separa...
by jbranx
Sat Jul 14, 2018 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018
Replies: 100
Views: 16026

Re: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018

Indexers need to be grateful that there are investors who believe Amazon is worth 228X P/E. Interesting, however, that Walmart, one of the all-time great contributors in capital growth and dividends to the 500, never sold at anything like a valuation that high as best as I recall. I don't believe W...
by jbranx
Sat Jul 14, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018
Replies: 100
Views: 16026

Re: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018

Here's S&P's summary out today of the contributors and detractors from returns year to date thru July 13. IT prevails but its contribution percentage is down. Amazon alone is responsible for nearly 19% of the total return. Interesting to note that the "detractors" are made up of some of the issues ...
by jbranx
Sat Jul 14, 2018 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018
Replies: 100
Views: 16026

Re: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018

Here's S&P's summary out today of the contributors and detractors from returns year to date thru July 13. IT prevails but its contribution percentage is down. Amazon alone is responsible for nearly 19% of the total return. Interesting to note that the "detractors" are made up of some of the issues t...
by jbranx
Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?
Replies: 44
Views: 10358

Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

All the panel: There have been four major "drawdowns" in stocks since I started investing in 1970 (73-74, '87, 2001, 2008 etc). Mandelbrot in his book "The Misbehavior of Markets" warned that stocks are far more risky than modern portfolio theory suggests. The number of drawdowns and the percentages...
by jbranx
Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend stocks vs. dividend ETFs
Replies: 15
Views: 1965

Re: Dividend stocks vs. dividend ETFs

I agree with the other posters that you would be far better off to skip the dividend ETFs and div. stocks. VIG ten-year returns are 9.72%; VYM, 10.23%; and VTI, total US market, 10.34%. But turnover, meaning capital gains, is much higher in the div. ETFs, 14.3% for VIG and 9% for VYM. So, you're pay...