Search found 542 matches

by GaryA505
Fri May 22, 2020 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Current 401k contributions?
Replies: 10
Views: 812

Re: Current 401k contributions?

Currently maxing out ($26K/yr), and contributing:
50% stock
50% money market
by GaryA505
Tue May 19, 2020 4:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Turning 65, Medicaire questions
Replies: 68
Views: 4123

Re: Turning 65, Medicaire questions

on my still-working wife's medical plan right now, but I turn 65 in October and plan to drop off it and joining Medicare. If your wife will still be working, you may wish to investigate your options to stay on her plan and delay Medicare. In some/most cases, I believe that if your wife's plan allow...
by GaryA505
Tue May 19, 2020 3:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Turning 65, Medicaire questions
Replies: 68
Views: 4123

Re: Turning 65, Medicaire questions

on my still-working wife's medical plan right now, but I turn 65 in October and plan to drop off it and joining Medicare. If your wife will still be working, you may wish to investigate your options to stay on her plan and delay Medicare. In some/most cases, I believe that if your wife's plan allow...
by GaryA505
Mon May 18, 2020 3:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40769

Re: Why international?

I'm confident that someday international equity will outperform US equity. It could be 1 year, 10 years, or maybe 100 years from now.
by GaryA505
Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mesh Wifi
Replies: 124
Views: 7803

Re: Mesh Wifi

I was using an Orbi (1 base unit with 1 satellite), but recently switched to the Gryphon AC3000 router. I only use a single unit now but they can be meshed, and 2 of them is advertised to handle 6000 sf. The Gryphon is rock solid. I get much better coverage and speed with the Gryphon than with the O...
by GaryA505
Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri: "You have to stick with that plan for the rest of your life."
Replies: 61
Views: 8662

Re: Rick Ferri: "You have to stick with that plan for the rest of your life."

I'm not interested in something that might outperform a cap-weighted fund in 50 years or so. Probably because I'll BE DEAD IN 50 YEARS! :annoyed
by GaryA505
Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds won't get you anywhere!
Replies: 85
Views: 9036

Re: Bonds won't get you anywhere!

At least through March 2020, bonds have out performed the SP500 since 2000. https://i.ibb.co/KmvCZpx/9-FCD6616-58-F1-4-EE4-ABCE-85-D99-F905874.jpg What would have happened if you DCA your investments, which is closer to how most working people invest over their careers? I love Portfolio Visualizer,...
by GaryA505
Mon Apr 27, 2020 5:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you expect your employer to change their stance on WFH after Coronavirus?
Replies: 99
Views: 6063

Re: Do you expect your employer to change their stance on WFH after Coronavirus?

given Coronavirus and the fact that many of us that can WFH are, do you expect your employer to change their tune regarding WFH and potentially offering it as a benefit going forward? I consider WFH to be a major PITA and a major hinderance to work, in general. If WFH is offered as a 'benefit', I h...
by GaryA505
Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Municipal bonds - concerns?
Replies: 31
Views: 2475

Re: Municipal bonds - concerns?

Whoa, I'm in VWALX and VWSUX at about 80/20.

Reading all this I should be shaking in my boots, but I'm not.

I just ignore the noise. :D
by GaryA505
Mon Apr 27, 2020 2:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you expect your employer to change their stance on WFH after Coronavirus?
Replies: 99
Views: 6063

Re: Do you expect your employer to change their stance on WFH after Coronavirus?

Probably, if they figure out some of the WFH people really aren't working much, and those of us still at the office are having to do extra work and fix more errors in the work they actually do. For some of the WFH people it has just been paid time off that they spend with their families or whatever.
by GaryA505
Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any other investors with 70/30 portfolio?
Replies: 110
Views: 20002

Re: Any other investors with 70/30 portfolio?

With the bond situation the way it is, I believe 70/30 is less risky than say 50/50.

The only reason I see to hold bonds at all is for RMDs when the stock market tanks, and I will go very short-term on the bonds.
by GaryA505
Sun Apr 26, 2020 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds won't get you anywhere!
Replies: 85
Views: 9036

Re: Bonds won't get you anywhere!

Someone retiring today with an expected retirement period of maybe 30-40 years should probably consider the clear possibility that they could make next-to-nothing at all on bonds. This. We should expect 1940-1980 returns for bonds now. You seem very confident in this answer. The reality is that we ...
by GaryA505
Sun Apr 26, 2020 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds won't get you anywhere!
Replies: 85
Views: 9036

Re: Bonds won't get you anywhere!

At least through March 2020, bonds have out performed the SP500 since 2000. https://i.ibb.co/KmvCZpx/9-FCD6616-58-F1-4-EE4-ABCE-85-D99-F905874.jpg Only without regular contributions. With monthly investments your MWRR would be much higher with stocks, even 2000-2020. So I think there is no point in...
by GaryA505
Sun Apr 26, 2020 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds won't get you anywhere!
Replies: 85
Views: 9036

Re: Bonds won't get you anywhere!

Does anyone have a graph of actual bond returns (not interest rates) for the last 80 years or so?
by GaryA505
Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's new forecast from Christine Benz
Replies: 38
Views: 6692

Vanguard's new forecast from Christine Benz

What do you think of the new Vanguard forecasts published by Christine Benz on April 23, 2020?

4.8% to 7.8% for US equity
8.3% to 11.3% for non-US equities
1% - 2% for US bonds

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/97 ... is-edition
by GaryA505
Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds won't get you anywhere!
Replies: 85
Views: 9036

Re: Bonds won't get you anywhere!

We "got somewhere" with bonds over the last 40 years primarily due falling interest rates, no?
I seems to me that another 40 years of falling interest rates are somewhat unlikely, unless you think interest rates can go to -10%.
by GaryA505
Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic
Replies: 164
Views: 12705

Re: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic

Are you thinking of moving to suburbs of another city or move into the urban space of another city? Just curious bc Im raising my family near a downtown and find life very easy and low stress compared to when I lived in a car dependent neighborhood. Yeah, us too. We’ve done both. Living in the city...
by GaryA505
Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic
Replies: 164
Views: 12705

Re: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic

We are planning to move out of Manhattan this summer -- we also have young children and no real estate. I think the city that emerges will be a very different one than it was just a few months ago. Will there be restaurants, museums, ball games, parades? I don't know. We will all likely need to ada...
by GaryA505
Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic
Replies: 164
Views: 12705

Re: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic

With education debt and then mortgage payments, the professional class seems to be kept on the brink of ruin until close to middle age. It's not a great way to live. Exactly. This constant need to earn high to keep up with high necessary expenses is very uncomfortable way to live. IMO you are lucky...
by GaryA505
Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic
Replies: 164
Views: 12705

Re: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic

I agree with those who say wait a few months before you do anything that's hard to undo. In the interim, you can do some research and put out feelers to colleagues in other parts of the country. You should also think deeply about your reasons for wanting to move, and whether the grass will actually...
by GaryA505
Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic
Replies: 164
Views: 12705

Re: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic

A couple of things. It's difficult to leave a situation, and the people, that you know well. This applies whether you are a doctor, engineer, or whatever. If you're good at what you do, you will do well anywhere. And we need good doctors everywhere. If you move west (except for the west cost of cour...
by GaryA505
Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds are still OK (maybe)
Replies: 15
Views: 1892

Re: Bonds are still OK (maybe)

For example, you are assuming (predicting) that: 1. Stocks will provide some gain. 2. Bonds will provide some "ballast" and/or maybe some income. If you can't assume either of those things then why would you own stocks or bonds? I own stocks and bonds not for those assumptions, but because I assume...
by GaryA505
Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds are still OK (maybe)
Replies: 15
Views: 1892

Re: Bonds are still OK (maybe)

For example, you are assuming (predicting) that: 1. Stocks will provide some gain. 2. Bonds will provide some "ballast" and/or maybe some income. If you can't assume either of those things then why would you own stocks or bonds? I own stocks and bonds not for those assumptions, but because I assume...
by GaryA505
Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds are still OK (maybe)
Replies: 15
Views: 1892

Re: Bonds are still OK (maybe)

Even sticking to your original 3 fund portfolio involves making some assumptions about the future (i.e. predictions). For example, you are assuming (predicting) that: 1. Stocks will provide some gain. 2. Bonds will provide some "ballast" and/or maybe some income. If you can't assume either of those ...
by GaryA505
Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: replacement for VUSXX
Replies: 5
Views: 431

Re: replacement for VUSXX

I use VSGDX, and will continue to do so until/unless someone can give me a really good reason not to.

Sure, it's got a little more risk than VUSXX, but better yield too. I think it's a good compromise for short-term assets.
by GaryA505
Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Portable AC keeps tripping breaker
Replies: 26
Views: 908

Re: Portable AC keeps tripping breaker

Modern TVs don't use that much juice, so it's just the AC unit.
by GaryA505
Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do I really need an Annuity? I have 40% Bonds
Replies: 43
Views: 2322

Re: Do I really need an Annuity? I have 40% Bonds

+1. Agree that an SPIA is only good annuity. It can give life time “paycheck” like a pension. I don’t have a pension so will probably purchase one in my mid-70’s. I won’t put all of FI in an annuity and may spread out money among several insurers. I never have considered an annuity in any form, as ...
by GaryA505
Tue Apr 14, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Government stimulus payments]
Replies: 351
Views: 27188

Re: Did anyone get their stimulus check yet? POST IT HERE FIRST!

MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Apr 14, 2020 2:14 pm
Already a thread on it.
Couldn't find one. Where is it?
by GaryA505
Tue Apr 14, 2020 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Government stimulus payments]
Replies: 351
Views: 27188

Did anyone get their stimulus check yet? POST IT HERE FIRST!

Did anyone get their stimulus check yet? POST IT HERE FIRST!
by GaryA505
Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still using total bond market?
Replies: 140
Views: 16564

Re: Still using total bond market?

I think Total Bond is obsolete. I suspect the Boglehead doctine will reflect this soon. With a broad statement like that you need to give your reasons why you think it's obsolete, otherwise the statement by itself does not mean much. Because interest rates are controlled by the government, and they...
by GaryA505
Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still using total bond market?
Replies: 140
Views: 16564

Re: Still using total bond market?

SimpleMan68 wrote:
Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:33 pm
GaryA505 wrote:
Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:31 pm
I think Total Bond is obsolete. I suspect the Boglehead doctine will reflect this soon.
What would you suggest in its place?
I don't know. I'm waiting for Boglehead V2.0 for guidance. :D
by GaryA505
Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still using total bond market?
Replies: 140
Views: 16564

Re: Still using total bond market?

I think Total Bond is obsolete. I suspect the Boglehead doctine will reflect this soon.
by GaryA505
Fri Apr 10, 2020 4:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cash: Is there any reason to buy Treasuries right now?
Replies: 13
Views: 1983

Re: Cash: Is there any reason to buy Treasuries right now?

I am using Vanguard Short Term Federal Fund (VSGDX). 30 day SEC yield 1.63%
by GaryA505
Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: With the govt forcing interest rates near 0, why bother with bonds anymore?
Replies: 29
Views: 1861

Re: With the govt forcing interest rates near 0, why bother with bonds anymore?

Somehow bond funds have gone up more than 4% in the past couple of weeks. That's more than 2 or even 3 years return of a money market fund. Somehow? I'd attribute it to movements in interest rates. Bond fund price increases are not ideal for the long-term investor. Of course, people have been sayin...
by GaryA505
Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: With the govt forcing interest rates near 0, why bother with bonds anymore?
Replies: 29
Views: 1861

Re: With the govt forcing interest rates near 0, why bother with bonds anymore?

I'm grappling with the same question as I mull increasing allocation to FI. Feels like FI doesn't exist for the foreseeable future. So cash is king? I'd be interested to know what action you or anyone here ends up taking vis-a-vis bond allocation. This sort of gets back to the question of the purpo...
by GaryA505
Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: With the govt forcing interest rates near 0, why bother with bonds anymore?
Replies: 29
Views: 1861

Re: With the govt forcing interest rates near 0, why bother with bonds anymore?

Somehow bond funds have gone up more than 4% in the past couple of weeks. That's more than 2 or even 3 years return of a money market fund. Somehow? I'd attribute it to movements in interest rates. Bond fund price increases are not ideal for the long-term investor. Of course, people have been sayin...
by GaryA505
Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: With the govt forcing interest rates near 0, why bother with bonds anymore?
Replies: 29
Views: 1861

Re: With the govt forcing interest rates near 0, why bother with bonds anymore?

livesoft wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:22 pm
Somehow bond funds have gone up more than 4% in the past couple of weeks. That's more than 2 or even 3 years return of a money market fund.
That's great if your horizon is 2 or 3 weeks.
by GaryA505
Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: With the govt forcing interest rates near 0, why bother with bonds anymore?
Replies: 29
Views: 1861

With the govt forcing interest rates near 0, why bother with bonds anymore?

With the US and other governments forcing interest rates to stay near 0, why bother with bonds anymore?

Why not just keep expected near-term withdrawals in cash or short-term treasuries, and the rest in stocks?
by GaryA505
Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility
Replies: 24
Views: 1289

Re: Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility

VMNVX didn't hold up significantly better over the last 2-3 months than VT/VTWAX.

So there's that.
by GaryA505
Thu Apr 02, 2020 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 201
Views: 18956

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

I would assume that everyone who invests has seen this, so it should be "priced in", but nobody knows the effect on the market, so all bets are off.
http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
by GaryA505
Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility
Replies: 24
Views: 1289

Re: Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility

I don't understand why anyone would want to compare the performance of Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility to the S&P500 or anything else other than it's benchmark.
by GaryA505
Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:14 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190881

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

So in the UK they think have accurate testing as well then I presume? Here (in MI anyway) we are told if we have symptoms and don't feel we need 911 for emergency medical attention then to stay home and not get tested. Clearly this protocol will understate the number of cases. I think there was a d...
by GaryA505
Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296808

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I would think that those with 5 (even 10?) years of retirement need to begin a brutally honest assessment of their planning. Hopefully that was baked In to their asset allocation all along, but it could be pretty rough sailing for those folks. Anyone should expect a 50% market decline at any point ...
by GaryA505
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Interest Rates and Holding Cash instead of bonds
Replies: 11
Views: 1517

Re: Negative Interest Rates and Holding Cash instead of bonds

I was wondering if it would be better to use money market or total bond, so maybe I'll just put half in each. That way I can only be half wrong and half right.
by GaryA505
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296808

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Thanks for the great responses!
by GaryA505
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296808

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Forgive my if this question was already asked in this thread, but I just couldn't read all 71 pages!

Coming out of this dip, might we expect better performance from large cap stocks than small cap stocks, due to more failures of small businesses?

This is just a though I had yesterday.
by GaryA505
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Costco Senior hour Tue and Thur
Replies: 70
Views: 5735

Re: Costco Senior hour Tue and Thur

This morning my Costco parking lot at 7:50 was the most full I've ever seen it. So I went to another one. That one had a line hundreds of people long at 8:10. I guy who was leaving said he was in line since 6:30. Folks, the idea is *not* to stand in line with 6 inches between you. That's how you ca...
by GaryA505
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Costco Senior hour Tue and Thur
Replies: 70
Views: 5735

Re: Costco Senior hour Tue and Thur

Went this morning to Walmart senior hour at 6 a.m. Too many people! Had a lot of shopping to do and noticed by 7 that very few people were in the store. Just go at seven. Were there security guards checking IDs to ensure that only seniors were allowed in? They had someone at the door greeting peopl...
by GaryA505
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Costco Senior hour Tue and Thur
Replies: 70
Views: 5735

Re: Costco Senior hour Tue and Thur

My recent experience: Considered going to WalMart Tuesday at 6 (one hour before normal opening at 7) Instead, went yesterday, Monday, at 8:00 Store was not busy at all, mostly seniors, although I live in a retirement/senior area. Everyone kept safe distances and were polite. I wore a mask and glove...
by GaryA505
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix on market crashes
Replies: 41
Views: 2325

Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

What did the stock market do during the Cuban Missile Crisis?