Search found 22 matches
- Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:01 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Dear wife quits job and now we are down to 1 income
- Replies: 190
- Views: 23204
Re: Dear wife quits job and now we are down to 1 income
This is a very old fashion way of thought. Even if it’s break even, a spouse *should* continue to work to maintain their skills and career prospects, especially one who was pulling in 70k (!!). It is well understood that women take huge future earnings hits by doing this, it’s bad for equality, it’s bad for your future and it sets the wrong example for children (especially daughters). This isn’t 1978, it’s 2018. Sorry to push back hard, on this but reasoning like this needs to be tempered. It’s old, it’s out of date. Posts like this make me so sad. Looking down on a woman because she chooses to stay home and raise/care fot her family because it is expected that her career should define her is just as bad as assuming the opposite. I know pl...
- Wed Jan 24, 2018 4:25 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
- Replies: 292
- Views: 64487
Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
The OP made a great call on this thread, given the callan tables, how does one feel going forward? EM continues to be strong. I think the general consensus on EM is right. Very high risk for hopefully higher than average return. The volatility has been quite a ride which matches the expected outcome years ago when I bought it. Will it continue to outperform over the next 1, 2, 5 years?, WHO KNOWS! I still don't get you EM folks. Let's look at some mid-term history: https://image.ibb.co/jHeWpG/Screen_Shot_2018_01_24_at_1_46_58_AM.png Under-performs the S&P 500, by nearly 40% (I'd go back further, but perfcharts wouldn't let me). Ok, fine but let's say you have the gift of calling bottoms, and you time it nearly perfect: https://image.ib...
- Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:08 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Dear wife quits job and now we are down to 1 income
- Replies: 190
- Views: 23204
Re: Dear wife quits job and now we are down to 1 income
This is a very old fashion way of thought. Even if it’s break even, a spouse *should* continue to work to maintain their skills and career prospects, especially one who was pulling in 70k (!!). It is well understood that women take huge future earnings hits by doing this, it’s bad for equality, it’s bad for your future and it sets the wrong example for children (especially daughters).
This isn’t 1978, it’s 2018. Sorry to push back hard, on this but reasoning like this needs to be tempered. It’s old, it’s out of date.
- Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:59 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
- Replies: 292
- Views: 64487
Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
The OP made a great call on this thread, given the callan tables, how does one feel going forward? EM continues to be strong. I think the general consensus on EM is right. Very high risk for hopefully higher than average return. The volatility has been quite a ride which matches the expected outcome years ago when I bought it. Will it continue to outperform over the next 1, 2, 5 years?, WHO KNOWS! I still don't get you EM folks. Let's look at some mid-term history: https://image.ibb.co/jHeWpG/Screen_Shot_2018_01_24_at_1_46_58_AM.png Under-performs the S&P 500, by nearly 40% (I'd go back further, but perfcharts wouldn't let me). Ok, fine but let's say you have the gift of calling bottoms, and you time it nearly perfect: https://image.ib...
- Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:51 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: 50% of my portfolio in FANG - 15% in NVDA
- Replies: 90
- Views: 16278
Re: 50% of my portfolio in FANG - 15% in NVDA
Right now I have around half my retirement fund in Facebook and Google and Amazon. I dont own any Netflix since it doesn't make any sense to me. I started buying NVDA in the 20s and has been one of the highest flyers over past 2 years and I have like a 700%+ return in 2 years. It's now grown to about 15% of my portfolio. I have around 40% in an index fund and the rest I own a few other individual stocks. So obviously I have benefitted greatly from owning around 50+% allocation to technology over past few years. What do you think of this semi-index / tech focused portfolio strategy? I plan to just let NVDA and AMZN ride, and continue investing into tech, with 50% into index. Time horizon to retirement is about 20 years or so Is this strateg...
- Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:23 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Ready to give up on bond fund, Lost 2.25% past 6 months
- Replies: 85
- Views: 15995
Re: Ready to give up on bond fund, Lost 2.25% past 6 months
Novice here. I have small part of my retirement portfolio in the bond fund of SWAGX, an intermediate bond fund from Schwab. It’s been losing money ever since I bought it 6 months ago. I want to just give up and invest in a 2% cd at synchrony instead. I thought bonds were supposed to be the stablizing force in a portfolio ? My other bond investments are mixed in with a 2035 target date fund and vanguard’s wellsley mutual fund. Should I stay the course or bail now on the SWAGX ? Hang in there, I own 3 intermediate bond funds (vteb, vwitx and vcaix), like yours, they are all down :). Not to worry though, the dividend fairy will make us whole after a while, just set Schwab to reinvest dividends and don’t watch for a while. I’m new to bonds too...
- Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:11 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Anyone disenchanted with retirement?
- Replies: 326
- Views: 56796
Re: Anyone disenchanted with retirement?
If your career is very stressful, and especially if you don't have dependents at risk, then I highly recommend turning life upside down with an early retirement. If you're like me, you'll find that there are many things that you can do and want to do when you are younger but not when you are older. On the other hand, when you are older you many find that work has greater appeal -- as long as it doesn't consume your life and health. Given that you can earn enough wealth to even consider early retirement, it's likely that you are the sort of person who will have many options for a return to work later in life -- if you want it or need it. At least, that's been my experience. Thank-you for the perspective and advice, it's very insightful. I h...
- Sat Jan 20, 2018 12:12 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Anyone disenchanted with retirement?
- Replies: 326
- Views: 56796
Re: Anyone disenchanted with retirement?
... This all kinda made me really think hard when enough is enough, but not really sure how to think of this kinda thing. The temptation is to think “it won’t happen to me” (rationally I know it’s a remote event), but if it ever did I’d at least like to think I lived my life to its fullest. For those who elected to work more, were you at peace with the possibility (however remote) that you may never get a “retirement” by rolling the dice? ... I believed in living life when I was younger, trying to balance work/life. Retired at 61 and am enjoying life. Odds are you will live to reach retirement age. When I thought I had enough--both money and work--I pulled the trigger. 100% agree with that. Take some of those trips that you want to take. L...
- Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:03 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Anyone disenchanted with retirement?
- Replies: 326
- Views: 56796
Re: Anyone disenchanted with retirement?
I have a slightly tangential question, somewhat dark. I’m late 30s, but on track for a pretty early retirement if I want it (maybe 42?). I recently came across the story of a colleague who past away very young from a sudden disease after doing everything right in life (given under a year to live :/). This got me thinking, and kind of re-evaluating... perhaps feeling a tad less invincible. So my question is this: how did you all factor in the unknown risks of “black swan” terminal health events, vs the benefits of a larger retirement nest egg? I’d feel awfully foolish if I spent 7 or 8 years working to make firecalc happier only to get unlucky health wise. This all kinda made me really think hard when enough is enough, but not really sure ho...
- Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:51 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: London/Paris Trip Questions
- Replies: 41
- Views: 3183
Re: London/Paris Trip Questions
1. Is it cheaper to purchase plane tickets and book the hotel online (e.g. Travelocity, Expedia etc.)? Or should I look for a travel agent here in the US to help. +1 to other posters, just use Google Flights for Flights, and online booking sites for hotel. I've been to London quite a few times (going again later this year!), and by far Double Tree Westminster (30 John Islip St, Westminster) in London has the best balance between location/value/space. Be careful with the hotel ratings in London (4* USA != 4* Europe), the "boutique" hotels have high prices and the standards (bathrooms, room size etc) fall well below what you might be used to here in the states (e.g. Marriot, Hilton etc). My preference is to stick with American chai...
- Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:27 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd
- Replies: 94
- Views: 10353
Re: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd
Let me help, this (>=4% in 7 trading days) has happened 110 times since March 2009 [1]. There is nothing even remotely unique about this.
Stay the course.
[1] https://www.Washingtonpost.com/news/get ... ading-days
- Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:00 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Does the S&P 500 Grow Faster Than the Economy?
- Replies: 31
- Views: 5241
Re: Does the S&P 500 Grow Faster Than the Economy?
3) Nearly the entire difference between market's long-term historical price growth (1.9%, in yellow) and its total return growth (6.3%, in green) is due to the compounding effect of reinvested dividends! [/list] IIRC "survivorship bias" is also a big factor -> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias The losers are evicted from the index long before they go bankrupt, and new fast growing companies brought in to replace them. GDP on the other hand, reflects the losers to the bitter end, causing additional drag. Is this another way to say that the S&P/VTSAX is "self-cleansing"? In a sense yes, though sometimes the S&P folks get it wrong as they evict perfectly good companies but ones which no longer "r...
- Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:13 am
- Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
- Topic: Help me understand question-less financial status (e.g. "2 comma club") threads.
- Replies: 175
- Views: 22595
Re: Help me understand question-less financial status (e.g. "2 comma club") threads.
+1 as long as they aren't "braggy" or demeaning/discouraging to others.MiddleOfTheRoad wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:47 am IMHO, those threads are confirmations that the BH methods work, regardless of income levels. Encouragements to stay the course when markets tank. They are examples of people who make it via BH method despite 1987, 2000, 2008 so I will stick to my AA when the next one hit. The actionable benefits of those threads will be my inaction during the next crash.
- Sat Jan 06, 2018 4:32 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Does the S&P 500 Grow Faster Than the Economy?
- Replies: 31
- Views: 5241
Re: Does the S&P 500 Grow Faster Than the Economy?
IIRC "survivorship bias" is also a big factor -> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_biasSimpleGift wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2018 2:38 am
3) Nearly the entire difference between market's long-term historical price growth (1.9%, in yellow) and its total return growth (6.3%, in green) is due to the compounding effect of reinvested dividends! [/list]
The losers are evicted from the index long before they go bankrupt, and new fast growing companies brought in to replace them. GDP on the other hand, reflects the losers to the bitter end, causing additional drag.
- Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:58 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
- Replies: 233
- Views: 37021
Re: Hitting The Sell Button
A lot of these posts sound like market timing disguised as rebalancing. Is this rebalancing to your pre-determined AA or a new AA because the market is "frothy" in your view? I'm staying the course at 80/20 (stocks/bonds; late 30s in age), but the way I read these posts is it's more about folks feeling their risk tolerance is being pushed to the limits as the PE rise; i.e. if folk are losing sleep at night over higher PEs, then reduce your AA in a methodical & tax efficient fashion. I don't think there's anything wrong with that. The difference here is one of motivation: if you do it because of risk tolerance (knowing rationally the bull could rage for 2, 3, 5 or 10 years more...but who wants to go 10 years without sleep &...
- Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:40 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
- Replies: 233
- Views: 37021
Re: Hitting The Sell Button
A lot of these posts sound like market timing disguised as rebalancing. Is this rebalancing to your pre-determined AA or a new AA because the market is "frothy" in your view? I'm staying the course at 80/20 (stocks/bonds; late 30s in age), but the way I read these posts is it's more about folks feeling their risk tolerance is being pushed to the limits as the PE rise; i.e. if folk are losing sleep at night over higher PEs, then reduce your AA in a methodical & tax efficient fashion. I don't think there's anything wrong with that. The difference here is one of motivation: if you do it because of risk tolerance (knowing rationally the bull could rage for 2, 3, 5 or 10 years more...but who wants to go 10 years without sleep &...
- Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:14 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Company Stock - % in portfolio
- Replies: 42
- Views: 5280
Re: Company Stock - % in portfolio
Currently I have 26% of overall investment assets in company stock This makes about 44% of taxable and 0% in tax deferred accounts. I was lucky enough to have more then double my money in last few years. I have sold all the RSU soon vested during 2017 soon after they vest in order to limit the exposure. And I plan on doing the same for 2018. I'm in a very similar situation. And I've done something nearly identical to you: letting pre-2017 RSU's ride and selling/diversifying the rest, I also have a similar situation now...a pretty huge capital gain I'm sitting on (and now looking to wind down after sober second thought). For what it's worth, I'm going to second the opinions already cited here, I'll also give you a few more (from my own thou...
- Mon Jan 01, 2018 3:00 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!
- Replies: 499
- Views: 92671
Re: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!
I'm in my late 30s, and my target AA is 80% stock, 20% bonds (currently 82/18 to be precise). Bond holdings are: All bonds held in taxable account, of the bond holdings they are: 44% VCAIX - California Intermediate Muni (I live in CA), 0.19% ER, 5.6 year ave duration 44% VWITX - National Intermediate Muni, 0.19% ER, 5.3 year ave duration 12% VTEB - National Intermediate Muni, 0.09% ER, 5.7 yr ave duration Overall ER is 0.18%, average duration 5.5yr. My overall strategy after reading tons about bonds on this forum + books, was to go with a 50/50 split between CA muni + National Muni's, however a combination of Schwab's high mutual fund purchase fees & higher ERs on non-Vanguard bond funds forced me into a slightly different mix at the co...
- Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:56 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Retire in my early 40s? Crazy or actually doable?
- Replies: 77
- Views: 14634
Re: Retire in my early 40s? Crazy or actually doable?
Truer words...have never been spoken. I think if you hit 3M with zero mortgage, the game is won (and you played the right game). At that point you are running up the score, but not much else IMHO.aristotelian wrote: ↑Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:36 pmAnd only on Bogleheads would 40% of the posters advise against it.weltschmerz wrote: ↑Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:07 pm Wow...only on Bogleheads do we get clowns with almost 3 million dollars asking if they can retire. The answer is 'yes', regardless of age. You are a clown....and I mean that in a good way! Congrats on your success so far.
- Sun Dec 17, 2017 4:14 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Real Estate taxes in 2017
- Replies: 6
- Views: 896
Re: Real Estate taxes in 2017
Yes you are: 2018 property tax “bunching” yes, income tax no. Google around, as we can’t discuss it here (pending legislation).Boogieknight wrote: ↑Sun Dec 17, 2017 3:58 pm I haven't seen this discussed but I'm bringing it up with my tax accountant. I would think that the best strategy would be to be to prepay all 2018 property taxes, all estimated state/local income taxes for the entire year, and make all the charitable contributions, all in 2017. I have little mortgage interest, just a small refi, and I can amass about $45,000 worth of itemized deductions in 2017, leaving virtually zero in 2018, and take what will presumably be a $24,000 standard deduction.
Anything I'm missing?
- Sun Dec 10, 2017 7:35 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Buying index funds is just as speculative as buying Bitcoin
- Replies: 64
- Views: 6203
Re: Buying index funds is just as speculative as buying Bitcoin
The vast majority of people buying index funds don’t care much about the underlying companies they are purchasing shares of. Their primary goal is to perform as well as the underlying market and hopefully beat inflation. They are speculating that by throwing their money into a little bit of everything that the overall gains will outweigh their losses. If another index comes along that can outperform their current index on a risk adjusted basis they won’t hesitate to pull their money from the companies they previously owned a part of. This is not investing. I argue that this is just as speculative as people buying bitcoin. *snip* I see a lot of talk calling bitcoin a bubble. This is my alternative perspective on the situation. I believe in ...
- Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:31 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?
- Replies: 149
- Views: 21674
Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?
I’d recommend you keep your advice to yourself. Or at best point him to some good forums. I hate to say it, but your friend is just whofully out gunned in this game, and has no real idea what/who’s he’s dealing with. Does he understand how bitcoin is mined? How people went from CPUs to GPUs to ASICs? And why? Does he know the math these people put into figuring out where to place their mining farms? How they figure out where geographically in the world has the cheapest power/cooling? How they determine when to upgrade their gear? How transaction costs work/vary? How forking works? What a block chain is? Seen a mining farm? Understand how software bugs in these systems can affect valuations? What about impact of future quantum computing brea...