Search found 342 matches

by cdu7
Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money market mutual fund assets broke the $​5.​0 trillion level for the first time ever on Tuesday, April 27
Replies: 19
Views: 2696

Re: Money market mutual fund assets broke the $​5.​0 trillion level for the first time ever on Tuesday, April 27,

Interesting, I pulled most of my money out of Vanguard Prime MM and moved it to an online savings account due to the rate drop. I think you are correct in thinking that money market funds yields are going to continue to drop until they are near zero. I did the same, moving everything to FDIC insure...
by cdu7
Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tracking Progress on my Market Timing
Replies: 36
Views: 1628

Re: Tracking Progress on my Market Timing

First off I just want to say everyone who is cautioning me against this is 100% correct, and I’m being irrational and also stupid in the case of buying the options (which I have never traded before in a significant way). I shouldn’t have done it, you are right. I also want to say that I’ve been a me...
by cdu7
Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tracking Progress on my Market Timing
Replies: 36
Views: 1628

Re: Tracking Progress on my Market Timing

I am not sure why you think you can sell it for a profit. What price do you think you are seeing? I simply sell the option to someone else, for $50 more than I paid What price are you seeing for the option? I ask because the price I see will not make you a profit if you paid $3.80. I’m showing 4.00...
by cdu7
Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tracking Progress on my Market Timing
Replies: 36
Views: 1628

Re: Tracking Progress on my Market Timing

I am not sure why you think you can sell it for a profit. What price do you think you are seeing? I simply sell the option to someone else, for $50 more than I paid What price are you seeing for the option? I ask because the price I see will not make you a profit if you paid $3.80. I’m showing 4.00...
by cdu7
Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tracking Progress on my Market Timing
Replies: 36
Views: 1628

Re: Tracking Progress on my Market Timing

I am not sure why you think you can sell it for a profit. What price do you think you are seeing? I simply sell the option to someone else, for $50 more than I paid What price are you seeing for the option? I ask because the price I see will not make you a profit if you paid $3.80. I’m showing 4.00...
by cdu7
Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tracking Progress on my Market Timing
Replies: 36
Views: 1628

Re: Tracking Progress on my Market Timing

That would be SPY not SDY. I doubt there is an option for SPY at a strike of $82 since it is currently selling at $293.53. SDY is the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY). Lol I did the wrong option!!!!! I can sell it now for a profit, so maybe I will. I am not sure why you think you can sell it for a profi...
by cdu7
Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tracking Progress on my Market Timing
Replies: 36
Views: 1628

Re: Tracking Progress on my Market Timing

Please explain to me the logic in selling VTI and buying puts for SDY. I am confused as to why you bought puts. The only volume I see for the Oct 16 SDY today is 10 sold at $4. Seems like an odd choice for options to me but I am no expert. I just did puts with SDY because it has the largest options...
by cdu7
Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tracking Progress on my Market Timing
Replies: 36
Views: 1628

Re: Tracking Progress on my Market Timing

This morning did the following things: 1. I sold $82,000 worth of my taxable total market index etf. The vast majority of my portfolio I left unchanged (80/20). 2. I bought 10 put options on SDY with an $82 a share strike price expiring in October of this year. This cost me $3800 3. That's it, I'm ...
by cdu7
Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tracking Progress on my Market Timing
Replies: 36
Views: 1628

Re: Tracking Progress on my Market Timing

This morning did the following things: 1. I sold $82,000 worth of my taxable total market index etf. The vast majority of my portfolio I left unchanged (80/20). 2. I bought 10 put options on SDY with an $82 a share strike price expiring in October of this year. This cost me $3800 3. That's it, I'm ...
by cdu7
Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tracking Progress on my Market Timing
Replies: 36
Views: 1628

Re: Tracking Progress on my Market Timing

magicrat wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:30 am
Since you are 100% certain there will be a crash, why not go all in and sell everything?
I’m not 100% certain of anything, and the downside potential is far less than the upside, so I’ll keep my exposure to my gamble relatively limited.
by cdu7
Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tracking Progress on my Market Timing
Replies: 36
Views: 1628

Re: Tracking Progress on my Market Timing

okay... not sure why you want to discuss this on bogleheads. Market timers seem to want to prove something that can't be proven. You may win but at the end of the day you are just gambling. Do you want a pat on the back if it works or something? I’ll delete the thread if asked, I only did it becaus...
by cdu7
Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tracking Progress on my Market Timing
Replies: 36
Views: 1628

Re: Tracking Progress on my Market Timing

cost.basis wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:53 am
Why? I went from cash and DCA into indexes from Feb to now. VIX is below 40.
I’m convinced we are experiencing market conditions which have little to no basis in reality.
by cdu7
Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tracking Progress on my Market Timing
Replies: 36
Views: 1628

Tracking Progress on my Market Timing

This morning did the following things: 1. I sold $82,000 worth of my taxable total market index etf. The vast majority of my portfolio I left unchanged (80/20). 2. I bought 10 put options on SDY with an $82 a share strike price expiring in October of this year. This cost me $3800 3. That's it, I'm n...
by cdu7
Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why shouldn’t I do this?
Replies: 43
Views: 2351

Re: Why shouldn’t I do this?

Every economic indicator is in the toilet and is likely to remain there for a MINIMUM of 12-18 months. Without a miracle, no one has been able to adequately explain to me a case for the market to continue to soar in the coming months. At BEST it will stay flat as the fed keeps infinitely printing mo...
by cdu7
Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why shouldn’t I do this?
Replies: 43
Views: 2351

Re: Why shouldn’t I do this?

I've had a near sleepless night, but I promise I won't abandon you on this....... I will make a new thread and keep posting whats happening. But I feel this in my bones..... I have to do this.....
by cdu7
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why shouldn’t I do this?
Replies: 43
Views: 2351

Re: Why shouldn’t I do this?

Even if all your predictions came exactly true, you cannot be sure about market timing. What happens if the market crash happens in Sep? Dec? What if the Fed decides to start buying equities? The worst case is not you make a bet for August and it loses, it's that you decide that the timing was wron...
by cdu7
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why shouldn’t I do this?
Replies: 43
Views: 2351

Re: Why shouldn’t I do this?

mega317 wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:25 pm
Why not do more?
Because I could always be wrong
by cdu7
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why shouldn’t I do this?
Replies: 43
Views: 2351

Re: Why shouldn’t I do this?

Is /r/wallstreetbets leaking? I hope so. Bogleheads can be pretty dry. OP, if I had your conviction, I'd be right there with you. Well, except I would probably sell futures instead of buying puts. But otherwise, with you. I'm never 100% certain about anything that has a range of outcomes. Maybe tha...
by cdu7
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why shouldn’t I do this?
Replies: 43
Views: 2351

Re: Why shouldn’t I do this?

centennialstate wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:15 pm
You must have taken a wrong turn back somewhere around Google.
The bulk of my holdings in my retirement accounts will stay untouched. But I won’t be able to forgive myself for missing this historic opportunity to make boat loads of money.
by cdu7
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why shouldn’t I do this?
Replies: 43
Views: 2351

Re: Why shouldn’t I do this?

Thinking this through, we are at 25% unemployment and those figures are low because so many can’t get through to benefits. There is no treatment, testing isn’t there, and no herd immunity seems to be possible because people can be reinfected. Oil is worthless, prices are dropping, profits are throug...
by cdu7
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why shouldn’t I do this?
Replies: 43
Views: 2351

Why shouldn’t I do this?

I’m 100% certain there will be a market crash in the coming months. I’m thinking of selling half my taxable total market holdings which are currently not showing gains. I’m also thinking of buying 10-30 put options on SDY for August. If things go as I believe they will, I could be looking at 60k+ in...
by cdu7
Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: USO, the snake oil is changing its ingredients
Replies: 20
Views: 1832

Re: USO, the snake oil is changing its ingredients

I bought some shares of this so I could sell covered call options as it went down, then sell when it came back for a profit. I had no idea what a horrific vehicle it was and panic sold my position. Made some money on the sale of the call options, but not enough to offset my losses. A good $700 lesso...
by cdu7
Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone watch the Amazon series “The Expanse”?
Replies: 50
Views: 5492

Anyone watch the Amazon series “The Expanse”?

I just finished the first four seasons of this and man is it good......... like one of the best shows I’ve seen in years good.... anyone else watch this?
by cdu7
Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AXA Advisor - VUL and Term Insurance
Replies: 36
Views: 1424

Re: AXA Advisor - VUL and Term Insurance

Background: Fiance and I are getting married (each 29) 160k salary each. Maxing out 401ks, IRAS, and Roth IRAS. Currently, we've been following the 3 fund portfolio (VTSAX, VTIAX, bonds) Situation: We saw a financial advisor at AXA who spent about 6 hours with us over 3 meetings analyzing all of ou...
by cdu7
Sun Jan 19, 2020 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn’t Inflation Much Larger Than 2%?
Replies: 289
Views: 19200

Re: Isn’t Inflation Much Larger Than 2%?

5-10 percent (call it an average of 7.5%) means prices doubled since 2011. I cant think of much that's truly doubled in price since 2011. I can: -Health insurance premium (250/mo -> 500/mo for silver plan) -Rent (900/mo -> 1,800/mo for 1-BD) -Housing prices (400K -> 800K median) But I guess these a...
by cdu7
Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Realized we made a major mistake and feeling really sick.
Replies: 162
Views: 14308

Re: Realized we made a major mistake and feeling really sick.

Alright everyone, thanks for putting things in perspective. Neither of us are upset at this point and are counting our many blessings. I’m aware this is a “problem” we are lucky to have and in any other forum I would be laughed out of the room and/or pitchforked by the angry mob. Thanks again, this ...
by cdu7
Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Realized we made a major mistake and feeling really sick.
Replies: 162
Views: 14308

Re: Realized we made a major mistake and feeling really sick.

It is going to create friction, not because of the "lost" gains, which she isn't super upset about exactly (again she agreed to sell at the time, I didn't make these decisions alone), but she is using to argue against my boglehead ways. She wants to invest in more individual stocks and less index f...
by cdu7
Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Realized we made a major mistake and feeling really sick.
Replies: 162
Views: 14308

Re: Realized we made a major mistake and feeling really sick.

My wife recently made us sit down and calculate what our old company stock options would be worth had we never sold any over the years and held them up until now. We had been consistently selling over many years at a regular schedule. In total we have made roughly 850k before taxes on these options...
by cdu7
Fri Jan 17, 2020 1:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Realized we made a major mistake and feeling really sick.
Replies: 162
Views: 14308

Re: Realized we made a major mistake and feeling really sick.

My wife recently made us sit down and calculate what our old company stock options would be worth had we never sold any over the years and held them up until now. We had been consistently selling over many years at a regular schedule. In total we have made roughly 850k before taxes on these options...
by cdu7
Fri Jan 17, 2020 1:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Realized we made a major mistake and feeling really sick.
Replies: 162
Views: 14308

Re: Realized we made a major mistake and feeling really sick.

My wife recently made us sit down and calculate what our old company stock options would be worth had we never sold any over the years and held them up until now. We had been consistently selling over many years at a regular schedule. In total we have made roughly 850k before taxes on these options...
by cdu7
Fri Jan 17, 2020 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Realized we made a major mistake and feeling really sick.
Replies: 162
Views: 14308

Realized we made a major mistake and feeling really sick.

My wife recently made us sit down and calculate what our old company stock options would be worth had we never sold any over the years and held them up until now. We had been consistently selling over many years at a regular schedule. In total we have made roughly 850k before taxes on these options....
by cdu7
Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: We have a prenup, now buying a house.
Replies: 117
Views: 7619

Re: We have a prenup, now buying a house.

Most prenups I have heard of usually ONLY cover assets obtained before marriage. Also you should know that judges frequently throw them out of the window if they feel like they don't like the agreement or that it was written in a way that doesn't conform to their understanding of the law. With that ...
by cdu7
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [Upgrading from an AT&T iPhone 6]
Replies: 15
Views: 878

Re: [Upgrading from an AT&T iPhone 6]

I want to just throw it out there that there is a strong chance that in March of 2020 Apple is releasing the iPhone SE 2 with a 399 price point and loads of updates. Might be worth waiting. My wife just got the 11 and it’s a good one, but I’m holding out until March for now.
by cdu7
Sun Nov 03, 2019 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Using 403(b) or 457(b)
Replies: 13
Views: 988

Re: Using 403(b) or 457(b)

Thanks for the replies. I am in the 22% tax bracket and the fees are the same for both types of accounts. If the fees are the same then the 403b is preferable for legal reasons. The money in the 403b cannot be taken away from you if the employer goes bankrupt. If your 457 is a government plan then ...
by cdu7
Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I actually buy a new car ? (Seat Belt Deployed)
Replies: 45
Views: 3558

Re: Should I actually buy a new car ? (Seat Belt Deployed)

If you care about safety of your child, don't drive (and don't own a pool). After 4 years old, cars are the number one cause of children deaths, before that it's drowning. I rarely drive my infant anywhere since we live in a walkable neighborhood on a car free street. As parents it is your responsi...
by cdu7
Sun Oct 27, 2019 8:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I’m done with index funds
Replies: 229
Views: 30226

Re: I’m done with index funds

I find it interesting how when it comes to taxes people will go to exorbitant lengths to avoid, so much so that they end up actually losing more money than they would have paid to begin with. A mentor of mine many years ago, made a boat load of money (single digit millions in the early 80s) when his...
by cdu7
Sun Oct 27, 2019 7:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Adventures in iPhoning [should I upgrade now?]
Replies: 14
Views: 1191

Re: Adventures in iPhoning [should I upgrade now?]

Thanks for all the advice everyone, I’ve decided to hold off upgrading for now; that said, the iPhone 11 is awesome in terms of the screen, speed, camera, and battery life. The only downside is that it is a bit cumbersome to hold for my taste. The number one reason I wanted it was that the battery l...
by cdu7
Sun Oct 27, 2019 6:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Adventures in iPhoning [should I upgrade now?]
Replies: 14
Views: 1191

Adventures in iPhoning [should I upgrade now?]

So after upgrading to IOS 13.1.3 my wife's iPhone 7 began to have major issues. It seemed like the actual hardware governing audio failed completely. She could no longer talk to people during phone calls, or play/record audio. It was weird. When we took it to the apple store they refused to do anyth...
by cdu7
Tue Oct 01, 2019 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Willingly going from lucrative job to unemployed?
Replies: 132
Views: 15401

Re: Willingly going from lucrative job to unemployed?

Honestly I don’t suggest giving up on work totally. Unless you have 4 million+ it isn’t safe long term. If you work 5-10 more years you could pull it off. That said, my wife and I were in a similar situation and I changed careers to become a teacher while she changed to a part time position in her t...
by cdu7
Sat Sep 28, 2019 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 403(b) choices
Replies: 5
Views: 379

Re: 403(b) choices

I know a bit about Aspire: it is also open architecture having access to pretty much any fund including all vanguard admiral share funds of note. The fee is .15% per year for the account plus a small bookkeeping fee either $30 or $40 a year.
by cdu7
Sat Sep 28, 2019 11:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Capital One 360 shaking up savings accounts
Replies: 61
Views: 22310

Re: Capital One 360 shaking up savings accounts

Thanks for the heads up!
by cdu7
Sat Sep 28, 2019 6:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have you ever had to deal with an "evil" co-worker?
Replies: 11
Views: 1543

Have you ever had to deal with an "evil" co-worker?

Have any of you ever encountered this in the workplace: a person who seems very nice at first glance, but after a while you realize that this person is going out of they way to damage other people in the workplace/office. Nothing that could be legally actionable mind you, but this person is definite...
by cdu7
Sat Sep 28, 2019 6:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Convince me not to raid my Roth to buy first condo
Replies: 46
Views: 3532

Re: Convince me not to raid my Roth to buy first condo

This is a terrible idea, save up more cash until you have enough for a down payment. That Roth IRA space is the most valuable retirement space you have; don't give it up for a condo!
by cdu7
Sat Sep 28, 2019 6:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds are bad because in tough times traders sell a lot?
Replies: 30
Views: 2823

Re: Index Funds are bad because in tough times traders sell a lot?

"Holding any kind of STOCK is a bad idea, because people often sell them in tough times and the price will decline"

Fixed it for you.

That said, obviously this is a ridiculous argument.
by cdu7
Sat Sep 28, 2019 6:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 401k Rollover, how badly did I mess this one up?
Replies: 16
Views: 1060

Re: 401k Rollover, how badly did I mess this one up?

I do not think an "in-kind" transfer from a 401k to a Rollover IRA is possible. It is always in cash. Even if the funds are Vanguard funds in the old 401k? Yes. The speed of the transfer is increased if the custodian of both 401k and IRA is the same, but otherwise it is always liquidation of 401k f...
by cdu7
Sat Sep 28, 2019 6:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 401k Rollover, how badly did I mess this one up?
Replies: 16
Views: 1060

Re: 401k Rollover, how badly did I mess this one up?

I do not think an "in-kind" transfer from a 401k to a Rollover IRA is possible. It is always in cash. Even if the funds are Vanguard funds in the old 401k? My new 401k provider listed "in-kind" transfer as an option on it's intake forms, although my funds didn't exactly match what was available in ...
by cdu7
Sat Sep 28, 2019 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much cash do you keep in your HSA?
Replies: 63
Views: 5258

How much cash do you keep in your HSA?

I'm just wondering if anyone keeps some cash in their HSA for yearly reimbursement in addition to their investing portion and if so how much? I typically keep about $1500 in cash since I feel like this covers me for most reimbursement in any given year. Do some people just keep the bare minimum in c...
by cdu7
Sat Sep 28, 2019 6:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 401k Rollover, how badly did I mess this one up?
Replies: 16
Views: 1060

Re: 401k Rollover, how badly did I mess this one up?

dogagility wrote:
Sat Sep 28, 2019 6:23 am
You didn't mess up. Assuming your investing time horizon is more than a few months, this will be but noise in the system.
I agree, but the more I think about it, the more I think I should have done an in-kind transfer to my Vanguard IRA, and just started a new 401k.
by cdu7
Sat Sep 28, 2019 6:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 401k Rollover, how badly did I mess this one up?
Replies: 16
Views: 1060

401k Rollover, how badly did I mess this one up?

My 401k rollover hit right before the markets went up significantly and deposited just in time to see the markets turn back down..... I'm already down several percent since rolling over while losing all the gains during that time period. Should I just throw my hands up and say oh well there was noth...
by cdu7
Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil price going to a $100-- time to change your asset allocation??
Replies: 86
Views: 9106

Re: Oil price going to a $100-- time to change your asset allocation??

Wow, calm down, it isn’t nearly as bad as you are making it out to be. Oil will go up some, but this isn’t a panic it’s all going to hell moment by any means.