Search found 9969 matches

by MotoTrojan
Sat Aug 08, 2020 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2012
Views: 159881

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Interesting and very topical discussion Steve Reading and Vineviz. Not sure what derailed it, but I must assume a misunderstanding. I think most folks respect each of your opinions and appreciate your analyses in this and other threads. On a different note, my employer just cut out DFSVX for a Vang...
by MotoTrojan
Sat Aug 08, 2020 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stocks - S&P Envy vs 60/40
Replies: 95
Views: 5167

Re: 100% Stocks - S&P Envy vs 60/40

Bond yields have collapsed. Try this with CASHX instead and you'll get a bit better idea of what the future could hold. inflation has also collapsed. Your real return might not have changed by much. In the end we can say that low rates have not been a problem in the past. Will they be in the future...
by MotoTrojan
Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stocks - S&P Envy vs 60/40
Replies: 95
Views: 5167

Re: 100% Stocks - S&P Envy vs 60/40

Bond yields have collapsed. Try this with CASHX instead and you'll get a bit better idea of what the future could hold.
by MotoTrojan
Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Value Investing: When History May Not Be Enough"
Replies: 6
Views: 551

Re: "Value Investing: When History May Not Be Enough"

If factor investing in real funds worked reliably and consistently we'd all be there. Quite clearly we are not. Picking future winners and avoiding losers is inherently unreliable over any time frame IMO. Garland Whizzer Bingo. Value investors should be glad they are going through a couple of painf...
by MotoTrojan
Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel pans value/ factor investing on the Long View podcast
Replies: 24
Views: 1880

Re: Burton Malkiel pans value/ factor investing on the Long View podcast

As I value factor junkie I am happy to hear so many people are capitulating.
by MotoTrojan
Wed Aug 05, 2020 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Can I Reduce Total Market's (VTI) Tech of 25%
Replies: 36
Views: 2520

Re: How Can I Reduce Total Market's (VTI) Tech of 25%

I don't think it's a good idea to depart from the market based on impulse, but some here are some obvious ideas for doing what you say you want to do. These are not in any sense recommendations, just some pointing you in some vague directions for your own search. Vanguard Value Index, VTV, 8.84% te...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Aug 05, 2020 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2012
Views: 159881

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

FWIW, over the past two decades SCV funds have had remarkably similar Sharpe ratios to TSM: higher returns and higher volatility. So I'm not quick to conclude that the simplicity assumptions underlying risk parity or MD are prima facie invalidating. Isn't this just cherry-picking? If you use the in...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Aug 05, 2020 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2012
Views: 159881

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

rkhusky wrote:
Wed Aug 05, 2020 3:10 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:24 pm
Let's get back on topic... small-value (US and abroad) is crushin' it today!
IJS up 2% over VUG. Good, but not spectacular.
Paging livesoft to annualize that difference :twisted:.
by MotoTrojan
Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do I need to go through my employer's selected HSA?
Replies: 12
Views: 400

Re: Do I need to go through my employer's selected HSA?

If you are under the FICA max for the year, you will only be except from those taxes if you do payroll deductions into your employer's HSA. If you are over the max, it doesn't really matter. Hmm...I....not understand...Does this mean there is a poosibilty i cant get the tax advantages offered throu...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2012
Views: 159881

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Let's get back on topic... small-value (US and abroad) is crushin' it today!
by MotoTrojan
Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How should I think of HEDGEFUNDIE's portfolio in terms of asset allocation?
Replies: 26
Views: 758

Re: How should I think of HEDGEFUNDIE's portfolio in terms of asset allocation?

If you have to ask, you probably shouldn't put $100K into it 8-).

I would probably consider this part of my US equity allocation or if it isn't a huge part of your total portfolio just exclude it entirely.
by MotoTrojan
Tue Aug 04, 2020 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2012
Views: 159881

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Stop saying that the premium was missing post-publication in the US. That is not true according to any testable hypothesis. Would it make you feel better if I said there was no harvestable premium? Maybe no profitable premium? The fact is that investors in DFSVX over its entire period of existence ...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Aug 04, 2020 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can a small company offer decent 401k options?
Replies: 26
Views: 1241

Re: Can a small company offer decent 401k options?

Checkout Guideline. Very reasonable cost (believe $500/year + $96/employee-year) and they have a bunch of Vanguard funds at-cost (plus a few DFA/American type offerings if you prefer something more active).
by MotoTrojan
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2012
Views: 159881

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Couldn't agree more. I like your way of framing it though; we can't rejoice at returns right now so let's enjoy the bargains! You want some more rejoicing. How about this: In Ages of the Investor, Bernstein shows that accumulators historically would have ended up with more money using SCV. That's b...
by MotoTrojan
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2012
Views: 159881

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I’d be interested as well in any sector comparisons. Also, do some people avoid (or prefer) SCV due to it’s sector tilts? Specifically I’m thinking of someone in either the financials or energy sectors, who wouldn’t want their employment to be correlated with their portfolio returns. AQR does secto...
by MotoTrojan
Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2012
Views: 159881

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I still follow this thread, but tend to ignore most of the posts that don't fit the theme of rejoicing over SCV. I added to my SCV positions 2 days ago. There is no joy in VBR. I gave it a fling when it had its week but the handwriting is on the wall. Are you retired or accumulating? If you are acc...
by MotoTrojan
Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2012
Views: 159881

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I'm rejoicing that 2020 performance has enabled my domestic SCV fund, QSMLX, to pull ahead of alternatives like VBR, IJS, RZV, and DFSVX since the inception of QSMLX. Link here. QSMLX is a multi-factor fund (small, value, momentum, quality). Nice lead take-over! Also nicely done to not include a br...
by MotoTrojan
Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs
Replies: 251
Views: 30312

Re: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs

I'm now using AVDV (intl small cap value ETF) as a rebalancing partner with DFISX (intl small company fund) in an old DFA stock funds portfolio that hadn't been rebalanced since 2011--I'm not allowed to buy more DFA shares. AVDV is currently 12.9% of the revised portfolio (25% allocations of LV/SC/...
by MotoTrojan
Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2012
Views: 159881

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Both the "buy the haystack but only half of the haystack" and the "economics is not a science because you cannot perfectly predict it" crowds are kinda bumming me out. I feel like we've lost sight of our true goal here fellas. To rejoice at the sweet, sweet SCV bargains. Where's nedsaid at? I want ...
by MotoTrojan
Fri Jul 24, 2020 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Parity: When Stocks "Zig," What is the Best "Zag"?
Replies: 31
Views: 1732

Re: Risk Parity: When Stocks "Zig," What is the Best "Zag"?

I can see how total bond, treasuries, etc perform with a stock portfolio of different allocations in portfolio visualizer, but would be nice to see how total bond / treasuries perform only when stocks are in a downturn. Any thoughts/insight on this? I won't comment on the future, but for comparing ...
by MotoTrojan
Fri Jul 24, 2020 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value rebound soon?
Replies: 94
Views: 7235

Re: Value rebound soon?

When it comes to measuring the value premium I think a bottom up composite would be more consistent than using a single metric. This article provides some neat information https://www.factorresearch.com/research-value-factor-comparing-valuation-metrics Although there are some reasons to be skeptica...
by MotoTrojan
Thu Jul 23, 2020 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value rebound soon?
Replies: 94
Views: 7235

Re: Value rebound soon?

Do you agree that when one of these metrics has a meaningful premium (in either direction), generally they all do? The question is, which one sorts value the best. So if you take a basket of metrics and use their composite to determine whether the premium is positive or negative for MotoTrojan's va...
by MotoTrojan
Thu Jul 23, 2020 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value rebound soon?
Replies: 94
Views: 7235

Re: Value rebound soon?

My point was that when stocks with value tendencies do well (positive premium) you can rank the methods based on which does best. When value doesn't do well you can rank them by which captures that negative premium best too. So you can objectively rate which metric has historically had the highest ...
by MotoTrojan
Thu Jul 23, 2020 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value rebound soon?
Replies: 94
Views: 7235

Re: Value rebound soon?

ayrehead wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:58 pm
Looking at historical total returns during the major negative events of 2000-2002 and 2008, SCV indices outperformed others. But it's not doing that this time seriously. Why?

Maybe the answer helps us know what rebound to expect.
SCV outperformed in 2008? Much deeper drawdown...
by MotoTrojan
Thu Jul 23, 2020 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value rebound soon?
Replies: 94
Views: 7235

Re: Value rebound soon?

You mean those closest to bankruptcy? Or do you mean trying to find the diamonds in the rough? In the spirit of using enterprise value, companies with the lowest earnings relative to the price you'd have to pay to acquire them. Book worked better for that in the past than it does today. Never said ...
by MotoTrojan
Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does Fed money prop up the markets?
Replies: 15
Views: 1216

Re: How does Fed money prop up the markets?

What is pushing the 10Y and 30Y rates lower, especially in the last 6 weeks, even as the stock market has risen? The "yield curve control" that Fed had discussed has not been implemented yet. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5380713#p5375348 People buying 10Y and 30Y bonds. 10Y rate...
by MotoTrojan
Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value rebound soon?
Replies: 94
Views: 7235

Re: Value rebound soon?

Finding the stocks with the lowest valuation, regardless of whether that means they outperform the market or not. You mean those closest to bankruptcy? Or do you mean trying to find the diamonds in the rough? In the spirit of using enterprise value, companies with the lowest earnings relative to th...
by MotoTrojan
Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Rewards Visa signature card
Replies: 29
Views: 3369

Re: Fidelity Rewards Visa signature card

Easy to use. Only time you aren't dealing directly with Fidelity is customer service goes through Elan, but it is still through a Fidelity portal.

Rewards automatically go to an account of my choosing (can split too) every month, very nice.
by MotoTrojan
Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does Fed money prop up the markets?
Replies: 15
Views: 1216

Re: How does Fed money prop up the markets?

guyinlaw wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:27 am
What is pushing the 10Y and 30Y rates lower, especially in the last 6 weeks, even as the stock market has risen? The "yield curve control" that Fed had discussed has not been implemented yet.

viewtopic.php?p=5380713#p5375348
People buying 10Y and 30Y bonds.
by MotoTrojan
Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value rebound soon?
Replies: 94
Views: 7235

Re: Value rebound soon?

Inflation has been subdued since the early 1990s and I'm fairly positive that value, aka the value cheapest decile, is well ahead of TSM from 1990 to 2020 - despite two discreet raging growth bullmarkets within that period. The setup for value may be more bullish than we can imagine. Value as in (1...
by MotoTrojan
Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value rebound soon?
Replies: 94
Views: 7235

Re: Value rebound soon?

Finding the stocks with the lowest valuation, regardless of whether that means they outperform the market or not. You mean those closest to bankruptcy? Or do you mean trying to find the diamonds in the rough? In the spirit of using enterprise value, companies with the lowest earnings relative to th...
by MotoTrojan
Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does Fed money prop up the markets?
Replies: 15
Views: 1216

Re: How does Fed money prop up the markets?

They buy corporate bonds and treasuries. The prior holders of those assets now have money that has to go somewhere. Rates are really low (the Fed buying those bonds makes that even worse) so they decide to buy equities instead. Market goes up.
by MotoTrojan
Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value rebound soon?
Replies: 94
Views: 7235

Re: Value rebound soon?

I have hit the "pause" button. Earlier on, I was doing a mild "Swedroe shuffle" restoring my Value tilts in both Large and Small Value but I have stopped. We have $3 trillion in liquidity hitting the economy and this is affecting the markets as well. Hard to make sense of what is happening, it seem...
by MotoTrojan
Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value rebound soon?
Replies: 94
Views: 7235

Re: Value rebound soon?

I do use some Avantis US small-value (AVUV) which does use the antiquated P/B ratio although they combine it with gross-profitability which helps; ... P/B is antiquated for what purpose - explaining returns via the FF model or for finding stocks that you hope will outperform the market? Finding the...
by MotoTrojan
Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value rebound soon?
Replies: 94
Views: 7235

Re: Value rebound soon?

Have there been studies on the "best" metrics for value? If you were designing a value fund, what metrics would you use to define or measure value? I think a strong argument can be made for using enterprise value rather than market-cap, and coupling that with EBITDA or EBIT. Historically TEV/EBIT h...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: XOUT [GraniteShares U.S. Large Cap ETF]
Replies: 18
Views: 651

Re: XOUT [GraniteShares U.S. Large Cap ETF]

Small-cap value would be a nice way to take a bit more risk (expected return) and get some diversification. Spreads are at historic levels, could be a nice 5-20 year period ahead. SLYV or VIOV would be a good option at 15bp and fully indexed (they track the same index). If you are open to an active ...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 22, 2020 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value rebound soon?
Replies: 94
Views: 7235

Re: Value rebound soon?

Have there been studies on the "best" metrics for value? If you were designing a value fund, what metrics would you use to define or measure value? I think a strong argument can be made for using enterprise value rather than market-cap, and coupling that with EBITDA or EBIT. Historically TEV/EBIT h...
by MotoTrojan
Mon Jul 20, 2020 7:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need help with my Value and Small-Cap Value tilts
Replies: 14
Views: 1033

Re: Need help with my Value and Small-Cap Value tilts

Nice catch on the AVDV vs. FNDC distinction; no cap-gains, this is a conscious choice but admittedly one I have gone back and forth on. I hold no dedicated Total International at all, so by using FNDC I maintain some exposure to small-cap growth companies with reasonable valuations. I also really f...
by MotoTrojan
Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive is too Aggressive?
Replies: 12
Views: 1640

Re: Passive is too Aggressive?

Take a look at how much of the S&P500's earnings they represent and you'll hopefully feel a little better. Agree with above that holding Total Stock Market is a nice passive way to reduce that exposure modestly. A tilt to small-cap value is another great way to get some diversification and boost ex...
by MotoTrojan
Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Opinion: The hidden risk in your S&P 500 index fund“
Replies: 18
Views: 2134

Re: “Opinion: The hidden risk in your S&P 500 index fund“

While I personally tilt away from the market cap weight significantly, these % allocations are not far off from the % of earnings these few companies generate.
by MotoTrojan
Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive is too Aggressive?
Replies: 12
Views: 1640

Re: Passive is too Aggressive?

A tilt to small-cap value is another great way to get some diversification and boost expected return in a cost-efficient way. Don't disappoint Elizabeth Banks by forgetting our Mid-Cap friends! They come in extra handy if you want to water down that spicy single stock risk in the S&P 500 index. Fai...
by MotoTrojan
Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Often overlooked aspect of backtesting: contributions
Replies: 11
Views: 825

Re: Often overlooked aspect of backtesting: contributions

Thanks for pointing out the rolling returns tip. I haven't looked at that, but I like the idea of reducing start / end date sensitivity so I'll definitely be looking into that. Usually I just try to backtest things with many different start dates and end dates to try to get a better picture of what...
by MotoTrojan
Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive is too Aggressive?
Replies: 12
Views: 1640

Re: Passive is too Aggressive?

Take a look at how much of the S&P500's earnings they represent and you'll hopefully feel a little better. Agree with above that holding Total Stock Market is a nice passive way to reduce that exposure modestly. A tilt to small-cap value is another great way to get some diversification and boost exp...
by MotoTrojan
Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need help with my Value and Small-Cap Value tilts
Replies: 14
Views: 1033

Re: Need help with my Value and Small-Cap Value tilts

I would not hold IUSV myself. Large-value doesn't have as much of a premium, especially when using P/B to weight for value. Small-value is the best bang-for-your-buck. IJS is fine, but as noted SLYV & VIOV are cheaper and track the same index. I personally would go with AVUV which has a bit stronge...
by MotoTrojan
Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Often overlooked aspect of backtesting: contributions
Replies: 11
Views: 825

Re: Often overlooked aspect of backtesting: contributions

If we set portfolio visualizer to use a $10,000 initial investment and $500 monthly contributions, a far more realistic scenario, the tables flip completely and the results are almost exactly opposite. The final value of the 100% large-cap growth investment is 49% higher than the final value of the...
by MotoTrojan
Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Market vs Growth
Replies: 45
Views: 2541

Re: TOTAL MARKET VS GROWTH

I have often wondered how much better off I would have done if I had invested in growth instead of total market. The answer is "quite a bit better." Nevertheless, I'm sticking with the total market approach for the time being. At some future time (after the COVID-19 crisis has ended) I may experime...
by MotoTrojan
Fri Jul 17, 2020 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Market vs Growth
Replies: 45
Views: 2541

Re: TOTAL MARKET VS GROWTH

Doesn’t the cap weighted total market currently have a growth tilt? DMW Growthy sectors are dominating the market right now (momentum is outperforming too), but by almost every definition the market is my default neither growth or value. Fama-french for example would call growth the top 30% in P/B ...
by MotoTrojan
Fri Jul 17, 2020 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Market vs Growth
Replies: 45
Views: 2541

Re: TOTAL MARKET VS GROWTH

5. I am not interested in doing a similar experiment with value because value has performed poorly for quite a while. Will it come back? Probably. Can I wait that long? Probably not. I am old. I'm already seven years into retirement. I don't have time to play any long-term strategies that might tak...
by MotoTrojan
Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Market vs Growth
Replies: 45
Views: 2541

Re: TOTAL MARKET VS GROWTH

I am absolutely NOT going to do that. Genuinely curious why you'd consider growth but not value? Because growth has done well recently? Value has done poorly for a long, long time. I'm old, and I can't afford to wait a long, long time for it to turn around. If that is the case, I think you also can...
by MotoTrojan
Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Market vs Growth
Replies: 45
Views: 2541

Re: TOTAL MARKET VS GROWTH

At some future time (after the COVID-19 crisis has ended) I may experiment with a small holding in a growth index fund just to see what life would be like in the fast lane. It would definitely be chasing performance. Growth has nothing to do with the expected growth of stock prices, it has to do wi...