Search found 9805 matches

by MotoTrojan
Sat May 30, 2020 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1492
Views: 121130

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

caklim00 wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 7:23 pm
AVUV up to 246.3 Mil in assets.
Quite happy that I swapped my SLYV for it awhile back.
by MotoTrojan
Sat May 30, 2020 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70/30 - Expected Real Return?
Replies: 51
Views: 3445

Re: 70/30 - Expected Real Return?

Earnings yield is my expected return you say? 100% QVAL/IVAL it is then! You can increase expected earnings arbitrarily high by leveraging and options. A simple and straightforward approach would be to invest all of one's wealth in out of the money SPY call options. After the options expire, reinve...
by MotoTrojan
Sat May 30, 2020 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1492
Views: 121130

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I have 4% of my portfolio in SCV (vs 35% in VTI). I'm not liking it these days obviously. Meanwhile the big techs I own (MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL - 7% of my total portfolio) have simply blown everything else away performance-wise. But I just don't see those techs falling out of favor (unless the new gover...
by MotoTrojan
Sat May 30, 2020 11:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to deduct HSA from payroll, and when not to?
Replies: 42
Views: 2259

Re: When to deduct HSA from payroll, and when not to?

Do not use payroll deduction. Every $214 you save costs you $1 per month in (inflation-linked) FRA SS benefits for as long as either you or your spouse lives. You will probably delay SS to age 70 (with FRA at 67); dividing by 1.24 to adjust for that difference, every $173 you save costs you $1 per ...
by MotoTrojan
Sat May 30, 2020 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70/30 - Expected Real Return?
Replies: 51
Views: 3445

Re: 70/30 - Expected Real Return?

Earnings yield is my expected return you say? 100% QVAL/IVAL it is then!
by MotoTrojan
Sat May 30, 2020 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care
Replies: 86
Views: 9567

Re: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care

You invest in equities to get all future cash flows and eventual liquidation of your holdings. 40 million jobs even for 1-2 years is not necessarily a large component of that.
by MotoTrojan
Sat May 30, 2020 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to deduct HSA from payroll, and when not to?
Replies: 42
Views: 2259

Re: When to deduct HSA from payroll, and when not to?

If you are above the second SS bend point, it is close to break-even on your own record; every $214 you save costs you $1 per month in SS benefits (adjusted for inflation). If you have a higher-earning spouse, it is probably slightly better to use payroll deduction, as the reduced SS benefit lasts ...
by MotoTrojan
Sat May 30, 2020 8:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to deduct HSA from payroll, and when not to?
Replies: 42
Views: 2259

Re: When to deduct HSA from payroll, and when not to?

It appears the 2nd bend point ends around $69k/year, I will average 35 years of over $70k. So I will be above the 2nd bend point, and will remain above that mark. I have not hit the limit on SS payments though. I am the higher earning spouse, by a significant amount, and that will remain the case. ...
by MotoTrojan
Sat May 30, 2020 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1492
Views: 121130

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

SCV is the frenetic, over- caffeinated cousin of the large cap indexes. Glad I not only held, but gently rebalanced into some more SCV when the spreads were really peaking. It's exceedingly difficult to sell the stuff that's been doing relatively well, to buy the beaten down stinker. I think we arr...
by MotoTrojan
Sat May 30, 2020 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Buying Fractional Shares a Great Thing??
Replies: 18
Views: 1645

Re: Is Buying Fractional Shares a Great Thing??

I have actually found it to be a pretty effective tool to assist with tax-loss harvesting between ETFs. Assuming you are okay using market orders, you can now be out of the market for literally a handful of seconds with just a few clicks.
by MotoTrojan
Thu May 28, 2020 3:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lump sum vs Dollar Cost Averaging during volatile market
Replies: 34
Views: 1454

Re: Lump sum vs Dollar Cost Averaging during volatile market

Emotions matter but logic says lump-sum. If you do want to succumb to emotions I would lump-sum half of it, and DCA the rest over a short time-span (6 months). Lump-summing some of it today is the safest bet emotionally, as then you won't be kicking yourself (as bad) if the market charges upward fro...
by MotoTrojan
Thu May 28, 2020 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Japanese stocks as an “investment haven”
Replies: 11
Views: 1228

Re: Japanese stocks as an “investment haven”

I don't seek them out specifically, but given my overall preference for value I do have an overweight to Japan within my ex-US holdings (30% of equity, thus still globally underweight Japan). FNDC, my core ex-US holding (developed small-cap fundamental index) was around 35% Japan last I checked, com...
by MotoTrojan
Sat May 16, 2020 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1492
Views: 121130

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I've been looking at VFVA (Vanguard Value Factor ETF) and it's very compelling, with robust and statistically significant size and value factor exposures, good diversification with over 1000 holdings, and a low ER of 0.14%. It is compelling indeed. I don’t think it’s a reasonable core holding for m...
by MotoTrojan
Sat May 16, 2020 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1492
Views: 121130

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

This is just for fun as I doubt anyone would actually go all in on SCV, but Ben Felix recently mentioned that using 4% withdrawals in 30 year periods going back to 1926, 70% US SCV with 30% 5 year treasuries had no failures. It also has a thrilling max drawdown of 77%. This was an aside in a discus...
by MotoTrojan
Sat May 16, 2020 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1492
Views: 121130

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Hypothesis: The Small Cap Value stocks are going to be dead until the US Economy stops being a laggard. The US MegaCap stocks don't face this issue due to their global revenue sources. If I were a person making a bet on this category I would switch to countries with better economic prospects. EM Sm...
by MotoTrojan
Sat May 16, 2020 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1492
Views: 121130

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I've been looking at VFVA (Vanguard Value Factor ETF) and it's very compelling, with robust and statistically significant size and value factor exposures, good diversification with over 1000 holdings, and a low ER of 0.14%. It is compelling indeed. I don’t think it’s a reasonable core holding for m...
by MotoTrojan
Sat May 16, 2020 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1492
Views: 121130

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

This is just for fun as I doubt anyone would actually go all in on SCV, but Ben Felix recently mentioned that using 4% withdrawals in 30 year periods going back to 1926, 70% US SCV with 30% 5 year treasuries had no failures. It also has a thrilling max drawdown of 77%. This was an aside in a discus...
by MotoTrojan
Sat May 16, 2020 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1492
Views: 121130

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Hypothesis: The Small Cap Value stocks are going to be dead until the US Economy stops being a laggard. The US MegaCap stocks don't face this issue due to their global revenue sources. If I were a person making a bet on this category I would switch to countries with better economic prospects. EM Sm...
by MotoTrojan
Sat May 16, 2020 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1492
Views: 121130

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Hypothesis: The Small Cap Value stocks are going to be dead until the US Economy stops being a laggard. The US MegaCap stocks don't face this issue due to their global revenue sources. If I were a person making a bet on this category I would switch to countries with better economic prospects. EM Sm...
by MotoTrojan
Sat May 16, 2020 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1492
Views: 121130

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

RZV is deep value microcap, maximally loaded with small and value factors and it has paid the price for that faith. I wonder how soon after one of RZV's loser stocks starts to do well that they sell it because it is not small enough or valuey enough? Seems like in order to profit off small value th...
by MotoTrojan
Sat May 16, 2020 8:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Please tell me I'm not crazy [Best way to manage an EF?]
Replies: 171
Views: 10383

Re: Please tell me I'm not crazy

jhsu802701 wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 9:24 pm
Sorry, I'm with your wife on this. VTSAX sells for 2.5 times book value. It's overvalued! That alone is enough reason to sell.

Remember, it's better to sell on your terms than to have the terms dictated to you.
So just put it all into RZV instead? :twisted:
by MotoTrojan
Fri May 15, 2020 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling options
Replies: 4
Views: 360

Re: Selling options

If you have to ask, it’s not for you.
by MotoTrojan
Fri May 15, 2020 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: close my amex blue preferred?
Replies: 16
Views: 1194

Re: close my amex blue preferred?

Convert to something else (many cards allow this).
by MotoTrojan
Fri May 15, 2020 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1492
Views: 121130

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

RZV is deep value microcap, maximally loaded with small and value factors and it has paid the price for that faith. I wonder how soon after one of RZV's loser stocks starts to do well that they sell it because it is not small enough or valuey enough? Seems like in order to profit off small value th...
by MotoTrojan
Fri May 15, 2020 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fallacy of hedging stock market investments
Replies: 16
Views: 1370

Re: The fallacy of hedging stock market investments

I wager there are a lot of people that are market timing, but doing some in an intelligent manner using hedging techniques. For example, if someone has $1M in equity with $750M in gains and wants to protect against near-term downside risk, I think the decision to use an options strategy is quite in...
by MotoTrojan
Fri May 15, 2020 12:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: More to TSP or Taxable acct
Replies: 21
Views: 1068

Re: More to TSP or Taxable acct

100 million accounts with $1 in each will grow just as fast as $100M in 1 account, assuming they are invested in the same asset(s). Max the tax-advantaged before putting anything towards taxable. Only reason not to would be if you need some assets to form a bridge between retirement and time where y...
by MotoTrojan
Fri May 15, 2020 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fallacy of hedging stock market investments
Replies: 16
Views: 1370

Re: The fallacy of hedging stock market investments

I wager there are a lot of people that are market timing, but doing some in an intelligent manner using hedging techniques. For example, if someone has $1M in equity with $750M in gains and wants to protect against near-term downside risk, I think the decision to use an options strategy is quite int...
by MotoTrojan
Fri May 15, 2020 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1492
Views: 121130

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

(AVUV is also heavier on financials (30% vs. 20% in VIOV), which is a sector I am trying to keep in check given its heavy weight in my home country, Canada.) You might want to look again. AVUV has a bit less in financials at 30% compared to VIOV's 34%. https://www.etf.com/AVUV#overview https://www....
by MotoTrojan
Thu May 14, 2020 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible Executive Order indicates stock rise/fall?
Replies: 4
Views: 770

Re: Possible Executive Order indicates stock rise/fall?

Policy is not allowed so this will be closed soon, but if you know it then the market already does too. Priced in.
by MotoTrojan
Thu May 14, 2020 4:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rethinking chase sapphire during pandemic
Replies: 8
Views: 1150

Re: Rethinking chase sapphire during pandemic

I’ve been debating using my ~$1000 of Propel points for cash instead of $1500 in flights. I’ll need to fly someday so probably won’t.
by MotoTrojan
Thu May 14, 2020 1:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to help a young adult child during pandemic
Replies: 5
Views: 511

Re: How to help a young adult child during pandemic

It sounds like you have a nice relationship with them so I would assume living at home with you would help financially and emotionally. Maybe you can give them some odd-jobs for extra income/savings while they search for gainful employment.
by MotoTrojan
Thu May 14, 2020 1:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 401k Committee - arguing for Small Value fund
Replies: 13
Views: 751

Re: 401k Committee - arguing for Small Value fund

Had to use a different share class to get a longer back-test (it actually has a higher ER than the one they listed), but here you can see that an S&P600 value index fund at-least beat the WF one... Maybe you can get them to add SLYV, IJS, or VIOV? These all track the same index at 0.15%-0.25% ER. ht...
by MotoTrojan
Thu May 14, 2020 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal Reserve Spending
Replies: 6
Views: 902

Re: Federal Reserve Spending

Not sure on the validity of this source vs. others, but what actions are you taking because of this? I personally expect returns in the future to be lower because of the implied safety of the fed-put, but that doesn't change my investment strategy much (I do tilt to higher expected return assets, bu...
by MotoTrojan
Thu May 14, 2020 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9420

Re: International market recovery

I can see many countries in the world de-coupling from China. I read that Japan is paying companies to move factories from China to Japan. Maybe U.S. should do the same. At least for strategic things like medicines. Interesting. Just goes to show you the potential catalysts that can come from an ev...
by MotoTrojan
Thu May 14, 2020 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness on the Death of Value...Which Vanguard ETFs to Get?
Replies: 43
Views: 3503

Re: AQR/Asness on the Death of Value...Which Vanguard ETFs to Get?

Where are you guys buying AVUV, merril edge does not allow it. Fidelity. If my brokerage couldn't buy something like AVUV I would find a new brokerage. I called in and got put on hold after asking why AVUV wasn't available and the rep got back to me and said that Merrill doesn't allow actively trad...
by MotoTrojan
Thu May 14, 2020 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1492
Views: 121130

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Anybody actually use RZV in a significant capacity? I used to, because it gave me the best value exposure in a limited space; it was the sole fund in my HSA. I now use VFVA (Vanguard Factor Value ETF) for both large-cap and small-cap value, in my HSA and Roth IRA. Nice. Bit too strong a tilt for my...
by MotoTrojan
Thu May 14, 2020 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness on the Death of Value...Which Vanguard ETFs to Get?
Replies: 43
Views: 3503

Re: AQR/Asness on the Death of Value...Which Vanguard ETFs to Get?

deltaneutral83 wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 9:34 am
Where are you guys buying AVUV, merril edge does not allow it.
Fidelity. If my brokerage couldn't buy something like AVUV I would find a new brokerage.
by MotoTrojan
Thu May 14, 2020 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1492
Views: 121130

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

youngpleb wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 10:00 am
Rebalancing into my SCV fund today! It started to lag behind enough for me to notice, against international small cap of all things :mrgreen:
Hopefully you used ETFs and traded earlier today!
by MotoTrojan
Thu May 14, 2020 9:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do you want to own the whole haystack [VTI] when someone has a blowtorch?
Replies: 125
Views: 9415

Re: Do you want to own the whole haystack [VTI] when someone has a blowtorch?

This guy hasn’t put down the blowtorch yet. People seem to be coming around that indexing isn’t smart right now. It’s rather painful. Indexes all in the red. Individual stocks that are covid compatible deflecting the pain keeping things in the positive. And what happens if/when things improve and y...
by MotoTrojan
Thu May 14, 2020 9:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do you want to own the whole haystack [VTI] when someone has a blowtorch?
Replies: 125
Views: 9415

Re: Do you want to own the whole haystack [VTI] when someone has a blowtorch?

If all companies were valued equally (let's say price / earnings) and then the pandemic hit, then yes I would want to buy shares of companies I thought would fair better. Nothing you have stated is unknown to the market. It is priced in. The real question is, do you think Amazon will do even better ...
by MotoTrojan
Thu May 14, 2020 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar Cost Averaging during volatile markets
Replies: 12
Views: 1425

Re: Dollar Cost Averaging during volatile markets

Buy the moment you can, no matter the volatility. Maximizes expected return and reduces complexity and stressing over decisions.
by MotoTrojan
Thu May 14, 2020 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is total market weighted index best?
Replies: 61
Views: 4298

Re: Why is total market weighted index best?

A broad-based capitalization index lets you capture the returns and ride the momentum of all the long-term winners in the market. You don't have to find the needle in the haystack. It will rise to the top. I don't know if that is definitively the best in terms of risk and return, but in terms of po...
by MotoTrojan
Thu May 14, 2020 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is total market weighted index best?
Replies: 61
Views: 4298

Re: Why is total market weighted index best?

Three fund companies introduced "fundamental indexing" products at about the same time around 2006-2007. All of them depart from cap-weighting in rules-based ways that take account of business fundamentals. The stories behind all of them sounded highly plausible, and certainly none of them have bee...
by MotoTrojan
Wed May 13, 2020 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is total market weighted index best?
Replies: 61
Views: 4298

Re: Why is total market weighted index best?

The cap weighted portfolio is the market. For you to tilt away from it means that someone else is tilting away from it in the opposite manner. For you to "win" (beat the market) another investor has to lose (underperform the market). Anything other than total market cap weighting is in effect a for...
by MotoTrojan
Wed May 13, 2020 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is total market weighted index best?
Replies: 61
Views: 4298

Re: Why is total market weighted index best?

The cap weighted portfolio is the market. For you to tilt away from it means that someone else is tilting away from it in the opposite manner. For you to "win" (beat the market) another investor has to lose (underperform the market). Anything other than total market cap weighting is in effect a for...
by MotoTrojan
Wed May 13, 2020 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Warren Buffett's investing approach outdated?
Replies: 16
Views: 1408

Re: Is Warren Buffett's investing approach outdated?

There’s a difference between his system being outdated and his scale being to large to implement it. If he left BK and started a side gig with $1B in assets I bet he would have a significant leg up on the market. The more money you have the less opportunities there are to outperform. Jim Simmons has...
by MotoTrojan
Wed May 13, 2020 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is total market weighted index best?
Replies: 61
Views: 4298

Re: Why is total market weighted index best?

I personally don’t feel it is unequivocally. For a long time though the main reason was efficiency as it reduces the need to trade; when Apple doubles in a short time span, it automatically rebalances itself in the market cap index. In an equal weight for example, it would need to trade often. Furth...
by MotoTrojan
Wed May 13, 2020 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion
Replies: 35
Views: 1291

Re: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion

Diversification doesn’t come from more and more holdings, after a certain point you aren’t getting more benefit. It comes from holding assets with low or negative correlation and positive returns. It’s near impossible to find assets with equal expected return and low correlation though so often you ...
by MotoTrojan
Tue May 12, 2020 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 189
Views: 16064

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

Thanks everyone for this discussion! I am interested in getting into PSLDX as my core U.S. holding but am trying to figure out whether it is worth doing so 100% in a taxable account or if I'm better off simulating it in the ways previously discussed. My brokerage (Schwab) has a minimum $100K initia...