Search found 4873 matches

by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Volatility Targeting Improves Risk Adjusted Returns
Replies: 26
Views: 1844

Re: Larry Swedroe: Volatility Targeting Improves Risk Adjusted Returns

In another couple of threads I’ve been discussing a similar but different approach that adjusts to the recent volatility in several assets and adjusts the allocation for risk parity or inverse volatility (which are equivalent when using 2 assets). This backtests extremely well for my particular fun...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does minimum volatility give better returns?
Replies: 15
Views: 1667

Re: Does minimum volatility give better returns?

I have been doing a lot of research lately on volatility based investment strategies. I am more intrigued by volatility management rather than stocks that exhibit low volatility. You can get some pretty impressive back-tested results by taking something like the S&P500 and say intermediate/long-trea...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Would you pay that much for parking?
Replies: 18
Views: 639

Re: Would you pay that much for parking?

Doesn't seem unreasonable to me. I pay $170/month for a pretty rough parking garage, but at-least it has unlimited in/out (some don't let you park there or enter/exit during business hours to encourage you to leave so they can sell daily parking.
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 17, 2019 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Working 4 days a week?
Replies: 27
Views: 1228

Re: Working 4 days a week?

4/10 sounds pretty amazing. In my industry it is more common to see a 9/80 where you get every other Friday off. Flexibility on what day to take off would be nice but it is pretty important to have everybody available on the same days. I've heard of some places that had different groups take alterna...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 17, 2019 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Credit card question - get Uber's new 4%er?
Replies: 60
Views: 8850

Re: Credit card question - get Uber's new 4%er?

I prefer Wells Propel and Signature Visa combo. 4.5% on travel, dining, gas when used for airfare. I have the Uber too.
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 17, 2019 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do I need a transaction free credit card for Ireland?
Replies: 14
Views: 346

Re: Do I need a transaction free credit card for Ireland?

3% fee. I’d get one personally. There are options with $300-$750 signup bonuses too and 0% annual fee options as well.
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 17, 2019 8:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Edward Jones trap
Replies: 65
Views: 9942

Re: Edward Jones trap

I made the mistake years ago of trying g to explain low cost index funds to a friend. His family invests with a high cost loaded active funds firm. At the time it was called Lutheran Brotherhood. They have a new name now and I forget what it is. Anyway he got really defensive and we went back and f...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 17, 2019 8:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2 to 4 fund YTD numbers from fellow Bogleheads.
Replies: 10
Views: 754

Re: 2 to 4 fund YTD numbers from fellow Bogleheads.

2019 returns look better than they are due to a fairly steep equity drop in December 2018. We aren’t far from highs achieved in October 2018.
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Changing Target Date fund 2050 to 2065
Replies: 6
Views: 479

Re: Changing Target Date fund 2050 to 2065

I am in agreement, if you want to stay at 90/10 for the foreseeable future this is a good time to do it (no actual change in AA it seems, no regret). If your situation changes in the future (job loss, inheritance, etc...) it is a 401k so you can always change your allocation to be more conservative ...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2524
Views: 193244

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

This thread was the subject of a post at r/wallstreetbets a few hours ago - wait for the fun to begin. https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ce7f4e/the_wsb_guide_to_index_funds_a_buy_and_hold/ I haven't read anything on that thread before. That seems to be a colorful group. I don't think...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2524
Views: 193244

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

I am wondering how much of the boost of the 30% (or greater) IEF cases actually comes from the correlation differences of the 7-10 year movements, and how much is simply a reduction in effective duration on the bond side Look at the annual returns for IEF against the other ones. It's still very cor...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2524
Views: 193244

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

I am wondering how much of the boost of the 30% (or greater) IEF cases actually comes from the correlation differences of the 7-10 year movements, and how much is simply a reduction in effective duration on the bond side Look at the annual returns for IEF against the other ones. It's still very cor...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2524
Views: 193244

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

If 2.0 Sortino overall from 1955-2018, 0.4 Sharpe overall from 1955-2018, and 5% CAGR from 1955-1981 is the cutoff (i.e. non-negative real return), then, in my opinion, if this were the set of options, these portfolios seem like they could reasonably be described as not being a very strong bet agai...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Jul 16, 2019 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2524
Views: 193244

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Where can one find the current swap rates these funds are paying? I saw Hedgie post it was 2.8% for UPRO and 1.8% for TMF.... Back in October. Is this info updated quarterly? I have a hard time in my brain justifying paying nearly 2.8% (rate+ER) to leverage long-dated Treasurys yielding less than t...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling ETF partial shares
Replies: 6
Views: 270

Re: Selling ETF partial shares

I usually buy mutual funds and not ETF's. I did buy some VTI last year because I did not have the $3000 minimum to invest in VTSAX. Now I have enough for VTSAX, but how do I sell partial shares of an ETF? I have 28.52 shares of VTI in a Vanguard Roth IRA account. When I tried to sell it, Vanguard w...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Jul 16, 2019 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2524
Views: 193244

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

I have my Vanguard IRA switched over to M1 finance and the transfer was executed right as the s&p crossed 3000. Now that cash is sitting in the M1 roth IRA and ready to go, I'm wondering if i should be a bit cautious on the buy in for the leveraged fund. I'm not one to try and time things but buyin...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2524
Views: 193244

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

The secret is a 10% allocation to bitcoin: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequenc...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?
Replies: 26
Views: 2922

Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Why are you so sure a correction is coming? Stop reading financial news, it’s meant to scare you to get views. If the pros overall thought the market was going down then it would already be down.
by MotoTrojan
Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Not Another Pay off the House or Invest...
Replies: 29
Views: 2284

Re: Not Another Pay off the House or Invest...

If it were me I’d take every bond I had currently right now (which are probably near all time highs anyways) and cash them in and put that towards the mortgage.
by MotoTrojan
Tue Jul 16, 2019 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2524
Views: 193244

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

reduces the "bet" on rates continuing down A little. Right now, effective duration is 7.53 years for IEF, but 17.66 years for TLT and 24.37 years for EDV. This suggests that the price of EDV is roughly three times more sensitive to changes in yield. And TMF has an effective duration of 54.66 years....
by MotoTrojan
Mon Jul 15, 2019 10:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTI vs VTSAX
Replies: 38
Views: 2937

Re: VTI vs VTSAX

The main advantage of VTSAX in this case would be the ability to set up an automatic investment plan for a set amount every month or whatever schedule you choose. This is possible because with the traditional mutual fund you can buy fractional shares. With VTI you can't do that, so you have to plac...
by MotoTrojan
Mon Jul 15, 2019 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax cost stopping move to indexing
Replies: 68
Views: 3072

Re: Tax cost stopping move to indexing

For many decades, my biggest equity-only fund holding has been VG Health Care. The good news is that its average annual return since inception in 2001 is 10.26% (compared to TSM’s average annual return of 6.82%, inception in 2000). The Vanguard Health Care fund has likely underperformed TSM by quit...
by MotoTrojan
Mon Jul 15, 2019 10:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Poor financial advisor performance
Replies: 71
Views: 3776

Re: Poor financial advisor performance

The portfolio you posted is more complex than it needs to be, but in general is quite good. I would not fault an advisor for those picks. International and small value have lagged large growth over the last several years. That’s the point of diversification: something is always underperforming. The...
by MotoTrojan
Mon Jul 15, 2019 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will you buy Total Bond with a negative yield?
Replies: 73
Views: 5898

Re: Will you buy Total Bond with a negative yield?

ksleo wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 9:53 am
I would sell bonds and then begin buying back time in my state sponsored pension fund which guarantees a 4% yield. That would get me through several years of negative rates, if I had to do it.
I would have 100% of my bond allocation in the pension already. Why don't you? Risk of default?
by MotoTrojan
Mon Jul 15, 2019 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does factor investing only work if you rebalance?
Replies: 13
Views: 801

Re: Does factor investing only work if you rebalance?

Holding diverse equity factors may yield a small rebalance factor but correlations are quite high; you'll find this works a lot better with something like a long-term treasury fund which historically has had low/negative correlation to equities and enough volatility to take advantage of it. While th...
by MotoTrojan
Mon Jul 15, 2019 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2524
Views: 193244

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Noting again: UPRO is a 3x SP500 fund, TMF is a 3x 20+ year treasury fund, and IEF is a 7-10 year treasury fund. All numbers (including, particularly, max drawdown, standard deviation, & risk metrics) are only from year to year calculations. Someone's impression of risk might be different if they c...
by MotoTrojan
Mon Jul 15, 2019 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dumb question about mutual fund returns
Replies: 8
Views: 755

Re: dumb question about mutual fund returns

I’d mostly ignore those unless comparing two funds for tax-efficiency but as noted, it may not represent your tax situation.
by MotoTrojan
Mon Jul 15, 2019 7:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Switching from passive to active management
Replies: 90
Views: 5934

Re: Switching from passive to active management

$500K/year? My god. This is like saying you want an exotic car but are afraid of maintenance issues popping up so instead of a $10,000/month loan you want to rent for $1000 a day forever.
by MotoTrojan
Mon Jul 15, 2019 5:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Poor financial advisor performance
Replies: 71
Views: 3776

Re: Poor financial advisor performance

KyleAAA wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:50 pm
Did you use an appropriate benchmark? If, for example, your portfolio contains international stocks (very likely) and the benchmark doesn’t (likely), it is not a valid comparison.
This is important. VG's 60/40 fund with International achieved 6% so not far off from the OP's return.
by MotoTrojan
Mon Jul 15, 2019 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: From ex-dividend to distrubution where is my money?
Replies: 78
Views: 3465

Re: From ex-dividend to distrubution where is my money?

On a total side note, my megacorp used to pay their dividend to us stockholders in the 401K on the ex-dividend date. We were getting our dividend in the form of company stock at the price at the end of the day on the ex-dividend date. Now that our 401K is managed by Fido, we get it on the pay date....
by MotoTrojan
Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2524
Views: 193244

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

While looking at real results I’d use EDV over TLT. Doesn't TMF hold TLT, not EDV? EDIT: According to page 146 of the annual report, TMF held some 46000 shares of TLT as of Halloween last year. http://direxioninvestments.onlineprospectus.net/DirexionInvestments//TMF/index.html?open=Summary%20Prospe...
by MotoTrojan
Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2524
Views: 193244

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Here's a look at long-term treasuries and what they did via the iShares ETF (TLT) and the 3x version (TMF) when yields bounced around but ultimately came back to the same point. Again, I tried to find a point at the beginning or end of a month so we could see the performance of iShares 20+ year tre...
by MotoTrojan
Sun Jul 14, 2019 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1282
Views: 120181

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Average net worth for my age is will over one million dollars. https://www.financialsamurai.com/the-average-household-net-worth-in-america-is-huge/ I was feeling good about my returns and the increase in the value of my stuff but the numbers put me in my place. You should read up on the difference ...
by MotoTrojan
Sun Jul 14, 2019 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2524
Views: 193244

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Futures: To the person who posted earlier...please do the math. Futures (I’ve used them for years) are great but they are unforgiving, very unforgiving. A quick eyeball suggested to me you are quite undercapitalized. Read your futures agreement closely, depending on the firm you could lose your ent...
by MotoTrojan
Sun Jul 14, 2019 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2524
Views: 193244

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

TMF also pays out interest in neutral environments so not sure I see your point. I said: "I think it should be pretty obvious that you can get negative returns with leverage... just by not making enough on something that would otherwise have positive yield (unleveraged)." Maybe it's easier to see w...
by MotoTrojan
Sun Jul 14, 2019 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2524
Views: 193244

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Maybe more efficient but obviously less leverage so less return. More leverage doesn't always give more return. I'm not an expert on bonds, so I can only give a simple take on this, but I think it should be pretty obvious that you can get negative returns with leverage... just by not making enough ...
by MotoTrojan
Sat Jul 13, 2019 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2524
Views: 193244

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

The original portfolio suggested is a 40% UPRO / 60% TMF portfolio with full 3x leverage. So far we know that less leverage, more intermediate-term bonds, and a higher ratio of beta (stock exposure) to term risk (treasury duration) all helped boost performance pre-1980s. We've also found out that u...
by MotoTrojan
Sat Jul 13, 2019 6:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question before I fire my broker.
Replies: 4
Views: 1113

Re: Question before I fire my broker.

Sell anything that’s a loss right away. Good luck on the transformation.
by MotoTrojan
Sat Jul 13, 2019 5:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Inheritance money - all in the market or slowly put in?
Replies: 16
Views: 2282

Re: Inheritance money - all in the market or slowly put in?

How much do you have in tax-advantaged accounts? If it made logical sense to take your time investing this then it would also make sense moving your 401k/IRA to money market and reinvesting that over time. Nobody does that though. Now emotionally you may feel better trickling this in but I wouldn’t....
by MotoTrojan
Sat Jul 13, 2019 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2524
Views: 193244

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Just realized ProShares has a 3x inverse long treasury fund, TTT. Odd they don’t have a bull fund in 3x. I’d swap TMF for it.
by MotoTrojan
Sat Jul 13, 2019 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For Tracking by Asset Classes is VWAHX 'HiYield' or 'Muni'?
Replies: 7
Views: 347

Re: For Tracking by Asset Classes is VWAHX 'HiYield' or 'Muni'?

I agree that tax-exempt should not be an asset class. I'd rework that plan and then pick funds according to my plan and tax situation.
by MotoTrojan
Sat Jul 13, 2019 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax cost stopping move to indexing
Replies: 68
Views: 3072

Re: Tax cost stopping move to indexing

If you sold it all today would the post tax value be higher than the pretax value it would’ve had in a more bogle investment (S&P500)? If so, congrats, you won, sell it all. I think the answer is yes, if using something like the average annual return figures I stated in the original post (HC 10.26%...
by MotoTrojan
Sat Jul 13, 2019 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have $3m at 33, "approach to career" advice needed
Replies: 145
Views: 29731

Re: Have $3m at 33, "approach to career" advice needed

I’d find a job that covers most of your expenses and gets healthcare then let the rest grow. 10 years out maybe you’ll have 5 million and can cut back further or retire if you so please.
by MotoTrojan
Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I think i can spend 30k on this vacation, but wife not sure
Replies: 77
Views: 6872

Re: I think i can spend 30k on this vacation, but wife not sure

I want to go on a safari vacation, business class and Savings: 100k per year on 350k combined income Assets: 1.5 M 401k target retirement 2035 3.5M taxable – 60/40 in vtsax and intermed term bonds tax exempt No debt Would like to retire in 6 years or so. Some of my savings will be eaten up by colle...
by MotoTrojan
Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax cost stopping move to indexing
Replies: 68
Views: 3072

Re: Tax cost stopping move to indexing

If you sold it all today would the post tax value be higher than the pretax value it would’ve had in a more bogle investment (S&P500)? If so, congrats, you won, sell it all.
by MotoTrojan
Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What asset class is gold?
Replies: 41
Views: 2638

Re: What asset class is gold?

Got it. I will hold it outside my 60/40 AA. Since 1972, a 60/40 U.S. portfolio had a safe withdrawal rate of 4.5%. Had 50% of the fixed income been alotted to gold (i.e. a 60/20/20 AA), the SWR was 5.4%. Just sayin'. I wish I could say I had a rational reason for buying gold. In reality, it will be...
by MotoTrojan
Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VUSXX vs. VUBFX, preference?
Replies: 7
Views: 505

Re: VUSXX vs. VUBFX, preference?

Treasuries are exempt from state tax so if you are in a high-tax state keep that in mind. Expense ratio should be all but ignored for these types of decisions since SEC yield includes it. Unless you're in a >10% state bracket it looks like the bond fund will pay more but will have small principal/NA...
by MotoTrojan
Fri Jul 12, 2019 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1282
Views: 120181

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Thought this thread would be more active today. Everyone must be busy rebalancing. Sold off some VXUS (and balanced back into it in 401k) actually so I could pay-off some 0% credit cards. Got myself into a nice position now where I can automate Roth, 401k and HSA investments and then spend whatever...
by MotoTrojan
Fri Jul 12, 2019 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simulating Returns of Leveraged ETFs
Replies: 198
Views: 14044

Re: Simulating Returns of Leveraged ETFs

So far, we're pretty good, none of those (stock-oriented) charts would make me doubt the model. Treasuries are an entirely different game though. What we've found in the past with positive leverage is that the closest Telltale charts came from treasury funds. Let's see what happened with Long-Term ...
by MotoTrojan
Fri Jul 12, 2019 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2524
Views: 193244

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

dspencer, I share your frustrations and agree with you regarding m1. My experience with m1 has been sub-optimal as well to say the least. I had to keep emailing/calling them for nearly 2 weeks before anything would show up in my account. I would never use them as my primary institution. I have less...