Search found 6542 matches

by MotoTrojan
Thu Nov 21, 2019 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dollar Cost Averaging or: how I learned to stop worrying and love the Lump Sum
Replies: 18
Views: 1475

Re: Dollar Cost Averaging or: how I learned to stop worrying and love the Lump Sum

Thanks for the story. Hopefully you feel the same way when it is $250 a share next Summer :twisted: :sharebeer .
by MotoTrojan
Wed Nov 20, 2019 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Warning about Uber Pool billing
Replies: 20
Views: 2067

Re: Warning about Uber Pool billing

I would be surprised if they didn’t refund the difference.
by MotoTrojan
Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equally weighted S&P 500 Index fund?
Replies: 35
Views: 1873

Re: Equally weighted S&P 500 Index fund?

To the extent that history is a guide for the future, an equal weighted fund would have been no better than a portfolio of one-third each in large-caps, mid-caps, and small-caps or half each in large-caps and small-caps. This is easy to implement (few 401k plans, for instance, will have access to R...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stop Loss Orders
Replies: 8
Views: 408

Re: Stop Loss Orders

Bad idea. Not retired but I would never.
by MotoTrojan
Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I want to make my children millionaires.
Replies: 41
Views: 4747

Re: I want to make my children millionaires.

How about a “bank of dad” with their allowance? Biggest lesson to teach would be the power of waiting until you have a larger sum saved and can get something more meaningful. At a certain age you could also add compounding interest as a lesson. Then have them get jobs in high school and match Roth c...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Nov 20, 2019 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1502
Views: 109080

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

The original thread has data from 1955 to present. TMF got crushed, and by present it was nearly a tie with 100% S&P500. Two questions Where can I find this dataset from 1955 to present? What do you mean by "TMF got crushed"? The fund got wiped out and/or went to 0? I don’t have the raw data handy ...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: S&P 500 Index vs Total Stock Market Index
Replies: 20
Views: 2685

Re: S&P 500 Index vs Total Stock Market Index

I've read that over the very long term (many decades), the annualized return of a total stock market index is nearly identical to the S&P 500 index. In some of the research, I see the S&P 500 slightly beating the total stock market index over the very long term. If the total stock market index cont...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Toughest Purchase of my Life. Engagement Ring time
Replies: 229
Views: 14782

Re: Toughest Purchase of my Life. Engagement Ring time

I spent $20K but have a very frugal partner who saves me at least that much annually. She loves it. I’m sure some wives spend that much on shoes and clothes over a 5 year span while she prefers Old Navy. I’m a young accumulator and that’s about half my annual savings. I don’t regret it but I’m sure ...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Nov 19, 2019 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Investors: Time to Back Up the Truck?
Replies: 83
Views: 6249

Re: Small Cap Value Investors: Time to Back Up the Truck?

Moto, great question! I wish I had a well thought out philosophical investor plan answer for you but in the end it is a lack of faith in the SCV premium going forward. Performance chasing? Maybe a little bit. I've never been all in on SCV. One of my first mutual funds ever was TRoweprice SCV and I ...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Nov 19, 2019 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Investors: Time to Back Up the Truck?
Replies: 83
Views: 6249

Re: "Bye bye"

Yup, I backed the truck up, after being a SCV guy for 25 years, right up to the dumpster. Bye bye. Locard: Congratulations! It takes time (it took me over 50 years), but eventually most of us learn the virtues of total stock market index funds. The Three-Fund Portfolio . Best wishes. Taylor Jack Bo...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bad Idea to Close Oldest Credit Card?
Replies: 20
Views: 1386

Re: Bad Idea to Close Oldest Credit Card?

My oldest card is with Wells Fargo and hasn't been used in ~3 years. No cancellation yet, but perhaps they are giving me some leniency since the limit is small on it ($1000, was a college/student card) and I spend quite a bit on my other Wells Fargo card every month.
by MotoTrojan
Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: HSA - Can I get a better return?
Replies: 18
Views: 1257

Re: HSA - Can I get a better return?

arsenalfan wrote:
Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:28 pm
Open a fidelity HSA account and use their 0 expense ratio fees.

HSAs permit a transfer 1x per year
Can you cite this? I have not seen anything limiting the number of transfers between brokers for an HSA.
by MotoTrojan
Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Investors: Time to Back Up the Truck?
Replies: 83
Views: 6249

Re: Small Cap Value Investors: Time to Back Up the Truck?

I'm backing up my hot wheels up for US SCV. I'm backing up my Prius for ex-US developed value. I'm back up my 18 wheeler for EM value. That's my view. Hasn’t ex-US small value crushed ex-US large cap in the last decade or so? Crushed would be a stretch, though it's done a little better: https://fin...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Nov 19, 2019 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Investors: Time to Back Up the Truck?
Replies: 83
Views: 6249

Re: Small Cap Value Investors: Time to Back Up the Truck?

asif408 wrote:
Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:42 am
I'm backing up my hot wheels up for US SCV.

I'm backing up my Prius for ex-US developed value.

I'm back up my 18 wheeler for EM value.

That's my view.
Hasn’t ex-US small value crushed ex-US large cap in the last decade or so?
by MotoTrojan
Tue Nov 19, 2019 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1502
Views: 109080

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I've run the TMF / UPRO simulation myself in my Portfolio Calculator and came to the following results for the period 1987 - 2019: Calculation methodology - investments of 3'000$ on a monthly basis depending on portfolio allocation in % - investment of initial 10'000$ depending on portfolio allocat...
by MotoTrojan
Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Just learned something about HSAs and independent children that I did not know
Replies: 42
Views: 4147

Re: Just learned something about HSAs and independent children that I did not know

I would suggest she cash flow medical expenses and invest the HSA as if it were her Roth. If she's not maxing out retirement accounts, she may as well withdraw from the HSA for medical expenses and contribute that money to a Roth. She gets the tax benefit of the HSA contribution but now tax-free gr...
by MotoTrojan
Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing $140k in cash at 1k per week
Replies: 174
Views: 11816

Re: Investing $140k in cash at 1k per week

I am glad you decided to lump-sum your equity. Do you have a plan for tax-loss harvesting? I am currently in a low tax bracket (usually owes around $1k in federal tax). So I am not sure if tax-loss harvesting is worth it if S&P rises and ends up costing me additional $1k+ to buy it again after 30 d...
by MotoTrojan
Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing $3500 in Vanguard
Replies: 7
Views: 690

Re: Investing $3500 in Vanguard

I would not invest in the stock market for money you will NEED to spend in 10 years. If I were you I'd just invest more into the 403b, or better yet you can invest in a Roth IRA. You can withdraw your contributions from that tax-free anytime, and just let the earnings continue to grow tax-free, so y...
by MotoTrojan
Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing $140k in cash at 1k per week
Replies: 174
Views: 11816

Re: Investing $140k in cash at 1k per week

Buying large amount of VTI at $120 is more like a conditional investment, a bonus per say. If it happens, it happens. But I am not waiting on it, or predicting it. If VTI goes down to $120.01, then goes back up to todays value, and my limit order has not been triggered, I am ok with that. I changed...
by MotoTrojan
Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: From a US investor’s perspective, are international stock markets less efficient than domestic markets?
Replies: 15
Views: 1119

Re: From a US investor’s perspective, are international stock markets less efficient than domestic markets?

Are you willing to tell us your understanding of the word efficient as it relates to capital markets? Without that it's hard to approach your question. PJW That market prices reflect all information available to an investor. How could it not? If the market of investors sets the price, then all info...
by MotoTrojan
Mon Nov 18, 2019 12:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does VSCGX+VSMGX=50/50?
Replies: 7
Views: 424

Re: Does VSCGX+VSMGX=50/50?

That would work but they won’t stay at 50/50 themselves. If equities do well you’ll skew high and vise-versa. It will require some regular maintenance to keep them equal. Given that, I think it would be lower maintenance to use a target retirement fund that’s currently around 50/50 instead. As it’s ...
by MotoTrojan
Mon Nov 18, 2019 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: BXMX
Replies: 2
Views: 178

Re: BXMX

Why do you want dividends rather than capital appreciation? They are the same, just one you get to decide when to sell.

This product is far more complicated than an S&P500 fund with higher dividends though. Pass.
by MotoTrojan
Mon Nov 18, 2019 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Investors: Time to Back Up the Truck?
Replies: 83
Views: 6249

Re: Small Cap Value Investors: Time to Back Up the Truck?

I would back up the truck on EM value first. And then developed value. If you still have room in your truck, back it up for US SCV. Maybe your load will be worth something someday. I agree, I would like exposure to small value EM. What is your favorite fund for this exposure? DGS? Any thoughts on t...
by MotoTrojan
Mon Nov 18, 2019 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are individual stocks back on the table now that we have $0 commissions?
Replies: 54
Views: 3789

Re: Are individual stocks back on the table now that we have $0 commissions?

sharppencilinvestor wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2019 12:11 am
Let's say you wanted to put together a 500-stock fund of your own making, and that the average share price among those 500 stocks is $ 50. You could devise a $ 25,000 investment, with $ 0 transactions costs. Why not?
M1 finance could do it with no lower limit.
by MotoTrojan
Mon Nov 18, 2019 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who are the best value managers?
Replies: 9
Views: 760

Re: Who are the best value managers?

I dunno about individual fund managers but there are some investment groups that have a decent reputation for running active/ quasi active value strategies LSV https://www.lsvasset.com/ AQR https://www.aqr.com/ DFA https://us.dimensional.com/ Polaris Capital managment https://www.polariscapital.com...
by MotoTrojan
Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Investors: Time to Back Up the Truck?
Replies: 83
Views: 6249

Re: Small Cap Value Investors: Time to Back Up the Truck?

Was pretty close until recently actually. Your numbers seem off. I am buying domestic and international SCV right now though. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2014&firstMonth=11&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&initialAmount=10000&annual...
by MotoTrojan
Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Investors: Time to Back Up the Truck?
Replies: 83
Views: 6249

Re: Small Cap Value Investors: Time to Back Up the Truck?

Fat-Tailed Contagion wrote:
Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:01 pm
What SCV is best for Taxable accounts? Non-taxable accounts?

And what about EM?
VIOV taxable or non-taxable.
by MotoTrojan
Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why don’t we use this leverage strategy?
Replies: 12
Views: 1570

Re: Why don’t we use this leverage strategy?

am wrote:
Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:16 pm
1789 wrote:
Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:13 pm
You may want to check this thread

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=288192
That’s what inspired me to start testing the leveraged etfs :D
Looking at these products since inception won’t cut it. You need some bears or just flat periods in the mix.
by MotoTrojan
Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ?wash sale to extract capital losses from IRA's?
Replies: 15
Views: 1147

Re: ?wash sale to extract capital losses from IRA's?

Not quite following but I don’t think so. I do like to TLH into my retirement accounts when possible though (sell in taxable and buy in IRA/401K). In the IRA case I have to watch out for washes but I don’t bother in 401K. What do you mean you don’t bother in 401(k)? If you’re saying, for instance, ...
by MotoTrojan
Sun Nov 17, 2019 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timing within one's IPS
Replies: 9
Views: 541

Re: Market timing within one's IPS

I have used the RBD method explained on the Bogleheads.org forum. The 5% drop I wrote about is not about the current stock market -- instead it is a general question about almost any day that the stock market drops really badly. I generally don't get scared by sharp market declines within a bull ma...
by MotoTrojan
Sun Nov 17, 2019 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% in bond to wait for market crash?
Replies: 127
Views: 19391

Re: 100% in bond to wait for market crash?

P/E is not high at all but even if it were, that doesn't mean prices will come down, it could simply mean that earnings will grow more quickly than prices to bring it back into balance. Why not just invest more in International or small-value? P/E's there are low. Small-value is historically low rel...
by MotoTrojan
Sun Nov 17, 2019 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When do you take it off the table?
Replies: 23
Views: 4075

Re: When do you take it off the table?

Your allocation seems about right to me. What SWR do you intend to use? With an early retirement I would plan for closer to 3% pre-tax than 4%. Given that and current assets it seems it will be up to the market whether you get to retire in 5 years or not. Also check your math as $110K + $22K is not ...
by MotoTrojan
Sun Nov 17, 2019 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clarification about the maturity of bond funds
Replies: 11
Views: 697

Re: Clarification about the maturity of bond funds

If there is a one-time step change in yields then you’ll break even after the fund duration; note that break even doesn’t mean just getting your principal back, it means getting your earnings based on yield at purchase date. In reality yields don’t make step changes then hold steady so there is no o...
by MotoTrojan
Sun Nov 17, 2019 12:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ?wash sale to extract capital losses from IRA's?
Replies: 15
Views: 1147

Re: ?wash sale to extract capital losses from IRA's?

Not quite following but I don’t think so. I do like to TLH into my retirement accounts when possible though (sell in taxable and buy in IRA/401K). In the IRA case I have to watch out for washes but I don’t bother in 401K.
by MotoTrojan
Sun Nov 17, 2019 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why do you have to "beat the market"?
Replies: 97
Views: 6030

Re: Why do you have to "beat the market"?

I here people always trying to "beat the market" or the S&P 500. Why would I want to or need to try and beat it? Because more is better? I don't know about anyone else, but if there were a guaranteed way to beat the market without increased risk and no additional work, I'd do it. Why not? I think a...
by MotoTrojan
Sun Nov 17, 2019 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Increasing risk appetite
Replies: 36
Views: 1446

Re: Increasing risk appetite

I am a diehard 3 funder since 2007. Have done well by hanging out on BH, bull market and high income. Anticipate basic financial independence early 50s assuming no big bear or other negative event. Of late my desire to “play the markets” has increased.I want to let a small % run on risky strategies...
by MotoTrojan
Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ultra Short Term Treasury ETFs
Replies: 36
Views: 2663

Re: Ultra Short Term Treasury ETFs

For those of you using treasury bills (not ETFs) for cash funds in a brokerage fund what did you use to buy stocks around December 26, 2018 (best buying opportunity in a few years)? Isn't that the reason you are holding cash in a brokerage account to begin with? No market timing lecture please. ETF...
by MotoTrojan
Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:19 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Broader Index funds available in India but confused about expense ratios.
Replies: 4
Views: 207

Re: Broader Index funds available in India but confused about expense ratios.

These indices are of Indian based stocks (NSE). While you may want to hold some, by market cap this is only about 1.1% of the world's public equity market. It would be a significant uncompensated risk to hold all of your equity investment in any of these indices. I would probably go with the 100 opt...
by MotoTrojan
Sun Nov 17, 2019 2:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why do you have to "beat the market"?
Replies: 97
Views: 6030

Re: Why do you have to "beat the market"?

For me the question is " why would I want to assume the risk of a strategy that attempts to beat the market? " Why do you hold 100% equities instead of 60/40? Because you are willing to accept more risk for more return. I would argue that a tilt to small-value increases expected return while mainta...
by MotoTrojan
Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why do you have to "beat the market"?
Replies: 97
Views: 6030

Re: Why do you have to "beat the market"?

You generally won't hear that here. I think it is pretty common for someone on Bogleheads to aim to beat the S&P500 actually. There area a lot of people that tilt to small-value who are doing just that. Sure, they may be proper Bogleheads and know they can't beat it on a risk-adjusted basis, but th...
by MotoTrojan
Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Better returns than savings account.
Replies: 5
Views: 900

Re: Better returns than savings account.

Bonds are also at historic highs. Stick with your bank until you learn how bonds work. SEC yield is the best forward looking bond return proxy; about 10x less than what you cited for most funds, not far from your bank account (which implies that the bank may go down). Duration is best proxy for inte...
by MotoTrojan
Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Track Fidelity - Vanguard Funds in Google Finance
Replies: 3
Views: 359

Re: Track Fidelity - Vanguard Funds in Google Finance

401k’s often have trusts that aren’t traded outside 401k’s and cannot be found in google finance. If you want live updates you can convert the share quality to one of these similar funds. Assuming you update somewhat often there won’t be much tracking error; mostly just expense ratio and potentiall...
by MotoTrojan
Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing $140k in cash at 1k per week
Replies: 174
Views: 11816

Re: Investing $140k in cash at 1k per week

When I read the question I knew what the consensus answer was going to be. You have to do what you’re comfortable with because only you will live with the consequences. I’m close to 100% cash and short term and have been that way since early 2008. I’m living with the consequences of missing out and...
by MotoTrojan
Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rumor mill - Fidelity starting individual HSA's Nov. 15th [2018]
Replies: 1066
Views: 104853

Re: Rumor mill - Fidelity starting individual HSA's Nov. 15th [2018]

Just opened mine :). Seamless transfer too, once I realized I can email them forms rather than snail mail them.
by MotoTrojan
Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity as a one stop shop
Replies: 1210
Views: 150241

Re: Fidelity as a one stop shop

Getting ready to fire CPC and move everything to Fidelity. Been over this thread in detail for the last several days and I think I follow it mostly, but still not 100% sure of how I should set everything up. We have 2 checking accounts and 2 savings accounts at Chase and it’s worked very well for u...
by MotoTrojan
Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:53 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 1027
Views: 140260

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

Congrats! When I look at my own portfolio, I see the same! Funny how we play these games though. If you bump it back to the 1-year growth I’d wager it’s a much different picture. Even 2-year. Congrats nonetheless! Age 74, retired, no pension, no annuity. I don't usually do these calculations, but i...
by MotoTrojan
Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:48 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 1027
Views: 140260

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

Hi, Hooray!! My year-to-date portfolio growth plus contribution exceeded my gross household income. KlangFool Congrats! When I look at my own portfolio, I see the same! Funny how we play these games though. If you bump it back to the 1-year growth I’d wager it’s a much different picture. Even 2-yea...
by MotoTrojan
Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preparing for a down market
Replies: 78
Views: 6401

Re: Preparing for a down market

In this low-inflation "secular stagnation" environment I expect bonds to continue to be negatively correlated with stocks. Given my ~40% bond allocation with a long-treasury tilt, I expect bear markets to be buffered by counter-cyclical treasury bull markets. Mind sharing more or pointing to reason...