Search found 6140 matches

by willthrill81
Wed Nov 21, 2018 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 525
Views: 83873

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

It's a mistake to label individuals as "a crowd". That's a behavioural mistake humans seem hardwired to make, to separate the world into "us" and "them" and to impute bad motives and evil thoughts to "them" (whereas "us" only act out of purity). Are you arguing that all generalizations are false? I...
by willthrill81
Wed Nov 21, 2018 9:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How high can House prices go
Replies: 67
Views: 8070

Re: How high can House prices go

I'm reminded of a saying I heard growing up. "Real estate is expensive when you're young and outrageous when you're old." That being said, real estate values (in inflation-adjusted dollars) cannot grow faster than wages over the long-term (though this can happen for a quite a while). If it did, eve...
by willthrill81
Wed Nov 21, 2018 1:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How This All Happened (to the US economy)
Replies: 40
Views: 5942

Re: How This All Happened (to the US economy)

Thanks for the read. I enjoyed it. I’ve often wondered if we could turn back the clock on income equality, what impact it would have on the country. Have you heard of a (prosperous) civilization that had income equality? Neither have I. :beer Straw man. No one is saying absolute equality is either ...
by willthrill81
Wed Nov 21, 2018 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How This All Happened (to the US economy)
Replies: 40
Views: 5942

Re: How This All Happened (to the US economy)

Thanks for the read. I enjoyed it. I’ve often wondered if we could turn back the clock on income equality, what impact it would have on the country. Have you heard of a (prosperous) civilization that had income equality? Neither have I. :beer Straw man. No one is saying absolute equality is either ...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7996
Views: 1622563

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I"m a follower of Larry Swedroe's writings, who advises taking a level of risk consistent with the least of one's need, ability, and willingness. At this point, I evaluate my need to take risk as very low. All I need to do to meet my current accustomed standard of living is to maintain an inflation...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7996
Views: 1622563

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Right now, I'm up .33% for the year. And I'm perfectly content. :D
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regulators are investigating whether Bitcoin was propped up illegally
Replies: 30
Views: 1848

Re: Regulators are investigating whether Bitcoin was propped up illegally

How can you "prop up" the price of Bitcoin on an open market, when all of the coins are constantly being 'counted' by miners around the world? The code is all open-source. This sounds like someone is looking for a complex answer when a simple one is more plausible: cryptocurrencies did not gain near...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Downing sizing home
Replies: 9
Views: 1194

Re: Downing sizing home

If your family would be content in a smaller home, I see no real downside to your approach. We weren't able to pay for it in cash, but we downsized from a 2,400 sq. ft. home to a 1,600 sq. ft. home and then to a 1,200 sq. ft. home. It is perfect for our family of three. Fifty years ago, homes of thi...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 20, 2018 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 66
Views: 7409

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

Absolutely. I await it. Await what? Your empirical evidence in support of your view that only buying longer maturity CDs if you are compensated at least 20 bps is a silly idea. Then don't await. So you're calling the idea silly, saying that you have empirical evidence to back up that view, then ref...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 20, 2018 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 66
Views: 7409

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

That is why saying that 'ONLY buy longer maturity if you are compensated 20 bps per year' is a SILLY idea. Do you have empirical evidence to support that view? Absolutely. I await it. Await what? Your empirical evidence in support of your view that only buying longer maturity CDs if you are compens...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 20, 2018 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 66
Views: 7409

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

AlphaLess wrote:
Tue Nov 20, 2018 9:45 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:42 pm
AlphaLess wrote:
Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:10 pm
That is why saying that 'ONLY buy longer maturity if you are compensated 20 bps per year' is a SILLY idea.
Do you have empirical evidence to support that view?
Absolutely.
I await it.
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 20, 2018 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7996
Views: 1622563

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I'm very curious if people who have 60% or more of their investment portfolio in common stocks are actually able to sleep well at night during times like this. I guess I can understand it if you're in your 20s or 30s and have 30-40 years of working and job income in front of you. But what about you...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 20, 2018 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation
Replies: 12
Views: 1102

Re: Inflation

The velocity of money increases when economies are doing very well, and this is, along with the money supply in relation to economic growth, a key factor impacting inflation rates. In terms of economic growth, we're close to nirvana right now. The Fed increased the money supply after the financial ...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 20, 2018 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7996
Views: 1622563

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Wellesley has been flat for the year (slight decline actually), much like the TSM is likely to be after today. Yes, you're likely to reduce volatility, but you're also likely to reduce upside potential. But that's why it's called personal finance. I hope it works out well for you. If a 10% decline ...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7996
Views: 1622563

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I have a confession to make: During a brief upward blip yesterday, I bailed. I just couldn't handle it anymore. Sold all the VBR and VSS in my 401k and sunk it all into Wellesley Income Fund. Ever since I started this investing stuff back in April, I had the feeling I'd wind up mostly in Wellesley....
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation
Replies: 12
Views: 1102

Re: Inflation

The velocity of money increases when economies are doing very well, and this is, along with the money supply in relation to economic growth, a key factor impacting inflation rates. In terms of economic growth, we're close to nirvana right now. The Fed increased the money supply after the financial c...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7996
Views: 1622563

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Annnnd, another 600+ point down day. Once again for no discernible reason other than market psychology / freaking out at every little perceived thing. Brought to you by the efficient markets! Movement on the basis of...we don't know. :wink: Let's give ourselves some credit though. If you set valuat...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7996
Views: 1622563

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

RetireBy55 wrote:
Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:10 pm
Annnnd, another 600+ point down day. Once again for no discernible reason other than market psychology / freaking out at every little perceived thing.
Brought to you by the efficient markets! Movement on the basis of...we don't know. :wink:
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 20, 2018 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7996
Views: 1622563

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

VTI is still showing a 2.29% gain for the year. What's all this talk about a bear market? ??? VTI on 1/2/2018: 138.22 VTI 11/20/2018 @12:32: 136.32 Down 1.37% YTD Go to Yahoo Finance and look at the "YTD" return under the performance tab. You're ignoring dividends. The +2.29% is as of COB yesterday...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 20, 2018 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 525
Views: 83873

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

What we do have (IMHO) far more conclusive evidence for is Bogle's 'cost matters hypothesis'. And that is not something to be glossed over in this discussion. We know that investing in international equities involves some additional risks, at least one of which is an uncompensated risk, and costs. ...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 20, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 525
Views: 83873

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

We believe that markets are efficient, that there's no performance advantage that we can obtain via publicly available information - that's what the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (Type II efficiency) says. If one does not basically believe that, this forum is not the right place for you. I completel...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 20, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Withdraw Money in Retirement, Following a Down Year
Replies: 37
Views: 2523

Re: How to Withdraw Money in Retirement, Following a Down Year

Have you ever looked at VPW, described in this forum? https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Variable_percentage_withdrawal dcabler- Thanks for posting. Can't believe I've never read this before! Quick question: Do most couples average their ages when using the chart? From the linked page: " Lookup the wi...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 20, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7996
Views: 1622563

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

VTI is still showing a 2.29% gain for the year. What's all this talk about a bear market? Yes, we're in a correction, but that's hardly news and certainly nothing to get worked up over. We've encountered several corrections just since 2009, but most seem to have forgotten all about those. This will...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 20, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7996
Views: 1622563

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

StormShadow wrote:
Tue Nov 20, 2018 12:33 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Nov 20, 2018 12:27 pm
VTI is still showing a 2.29% gain for the year. What's all this talk about a bear market?
???

VTI on 1/2/2018: 138.22
VTI 11/20/2018 @12:32: 136.32

Down 1.37% YTD
Go to Yahoo Finance and look at the "YTD" return under the performance tab. You're ignoring dividends.
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 20, 2018 12:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: fuel for snowblower
Replies: 97
Views: 5187

Re: fuel for snowblower

All I know is after My first year with the snow blower I stored it with some gas in the tank. The next season the dang thing was very difficult to start and really ran rough when it did. After maybe 2 fresh tanks of gas it started and ran beautifully again. Now I will not put plain gas in it. I alw...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 20, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7996
Views: 1622563

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

VTI is still showing a 2.29% gain for the year. What's all this talk about a bear market? Yes, we're in a correction, but that's hardly news and certainly nothing to get worked up over. We've encountered several corrections just since 2009, but most seem to have forgotten all about those.
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 20, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 525
Views: 83873

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

We believe that markets are efficient, that there's no performance advantage that we can obtain via publicly available information - that's what the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (Type II efficiency) says. If one does not basically believe that, this forum is not the right place for you. I completel...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 102
Views: 5006

Re: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

A quick diversion for investors who may not understand the calculations under discussion: The Time Value of Money calculations are well worth learning. Please spend some time to understand this most basic, but essential, part of finance and investing. Once the concepts are understood, you can solve...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 370
Views: 40789

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

samsoes wrote:
Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:13 am
Bump. Positivity in these dark financial times.
2008 was dark. This is not even twilight.
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 66
Views: 7409

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

AlphaLess wrote:
Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:10 pm
That is why saying that 'ONLY buy longer maturity if you are compensated 20 bps per year' is a SILLY idea.
Do you have empirical evidence to support that view?
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How high can House prices go
Replies: 67
Views: 8070

Re: How high can House prices go

I'm reminded of a saying I heard growing up. "Real estate is expensive when you're young and outrageous when you're old." That being said, real estate values (in inflation-adjusted dollars) cannot grow faster than wages over the long-term (though this can happen for a quite a while). If it did, eve...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 19, 2018 1:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 66
Views: 7409

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

If trading and taxes are not an issue, you always invest at the steepest part of the curve. That needs a lot more precision, I know. But currently 2Yr is at that sweet spot (as anything beyond that gets something like 2-3 bps of additional yield premium per year of duration). 2 years is the sweet s...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 18, 2018 8:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is my husband ready to quit tenured professorship to pursue side hustle?
Replies: 82
Views: 7844

Re: Is my husband ready to quit tenured professorship to pursue side hustle?

But how long will that $70k of income, if it materializes, continue? And is your husband prepared to work on future editions in order to keep that income up? He wishes to continue revising both textbooks every 4-5 years. Likely the income would continue at the 70K level until a co-author is added, ...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 18, 2018 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 66
Views: 7409

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

But currently 2Yr is at that sweet spot (as anything beyond that gets something like 2-3 bps of additional yield premium per year of duration). This is the question that I have been trying to get an answer to for the last few years. The 20 bps per year made sense in 2007 (?) when Swedroe published ...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 18, 2018 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 171
Views: 9253

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

fortyofforty wrote:
Sun Nov 18, 2018 7:11 pm
Not knowing anything, there is no default position.
Precisely. :thumbsup
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 18, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 66
Views: 7409

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

Larry discussed the issue in this thread years ago, as did many others. It's just a rule-of-thumb, not a hard-and-fast rule. Typical marketing material. 'Rule-of-thumb'. LOL. What's being promoted? Larry doesn't sell CDs. Do you have a problem with rules-of-thumb? I have a problem with anything tha...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 18, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 66
Views: 7409

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

AlphaLess wrote:
Sun Nov 18, 2018 3:59 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Sun Nov 18, 2018 3:57 pm
Larry discussed the issue in this thread years ago, as did many others. It's just a rule-of-thumb, not a hard-and-fast rule.
Typical marketing material.

'Rule-of-thumb'. LOL.
What's being promoted? Larry doesn't sell CDs.

Do you have a problem with rules-of-thumb?
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 18, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 66
Views: 7409

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

The DFA/Swedroe 'rule' with CDs is to keep extending the maturity until the point where adding one additional year would result in additional yield of under .2% (20 basis points). That rule was published is his bond book back before the financial crisis. Does any one know if has been revised since ...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 18, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 171
Views: 9253

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

The "live in the U.S. and spend in U.S. dollar" is not a reason to be 100% U.S. dollar. I'm not so sure. Tyler9000 made a convincing empirical argument last year that home country bias may be at least partially warranted because of the inflation risk associated with one's home currency. Over the lo...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 18, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is my husband ready to quit tenured professorship to pursue side hustle?
Replies: 82
Views: 7844

Re: Is my husband ready to quit tenured professorship to pursue side hustle?

Your husband earned a PhD in his late 40's which is quite late in his career. His 403(b) balance is 326k after teaching for 13 years. Does he have any other retirement account from his previous years? Did he begin to earn significant income after landing a tenure track position after getting his Ph...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 18, 2018 11:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 102
Views: 5006

Re: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Once a plan is underway, how do you know whether you should stick to your guns or change it? In general, this is a topic that doesn't get enough attention IMHO. For instance, among those who retired in 2000, their portfolio didn't look good in early 2009 almost regardless of their withdrawal strate...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 18, 2018 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 66
Views: 7409

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

Following that link, the DFA/Swedroe rule would call for 2 year CDs, since the added rate by extending to three years is just .15%. Thanks WillThrill. But the 5-year CD rate is 120 basis points higher than the 1-year CD, for an extra 30 bps per year. Compared to any of the other lengths offered, th...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 18, 2018 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 171
Views: 9253

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

Much of the additional risk is currency risk which by itself is an uncompensated risk. The benefit of international equities is the diversification benefit. With diversification some assets will overperform and some will underperform. You can look at which did better historically, but it is not pre...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 18, 2018 1:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing idea--what am I missing?
Replies: 13
Views: 1345

Re: Investing idea--what am I missing?

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:11 pm
1. P/E isn't predictive.
At a bare minimum, valuations are not reliably mean reverting. Valuations can stay low or high for a long time.
by willthrill81
Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 66
Views: 7409

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

With stocks, people say don't time the market but with CDs most are saying to stick with 1 year at 2.8% vs 5 years at 4%. The DFA/Swedroe 'rule' with CDs is to keep extending the maturity until the point where adding one additional year would result in additional yield of under .2% (20 basis points...
by willthrill81
Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS yield curve oddity
Replies: 22
Views: 1411

Re: TIPS yield curve oddity

Many here are discussing TIPS funds. If I was going to own TIPS, I would buy them directly from the Treasury and hold them until maturity either for liability matching purposes or as a TIPS ladder. This is probably just personal preference though.
by willthrill81
Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 171
Views: 9253

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

Much of the additional risk is currency risk which by itself is an uncompensated risk. The benefit of international equities is the diversification benefit. With diversification some assets will overperform and some will underperform. You can look at which did better historically, but it is not pre...
by willthrill81
Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?
Replies: 66
Views: 7409

Re: Why do people think CD rates will keep going up?

With stocks, people say don't time the market but with CDs most are saying to stick with 1 year at 2.8% vs 5 years at 4%. The DFA/Swedroe 'rule' with CDs is to keep extending the maturity until the point where adding one additional year would result in additional yield of under .2% (20 basis points...
by willthrill81
Sat Nov 17, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Engines recommends spending Roth money first
Replies: 25
Views: 2552

Re: Financial Engines recommends spending Roth money first

If we assume the IRA is tax-deferred (not Roth) and subject to higher taxes, because it has no basis and or capital gains, then how would those charts look as a matter of after-tax income? Those charts are for traditional (tax-deferred) IRAs. The last chart would actually result in the greatest lev...
by willthrill81
Sat Nov 17, 2018 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Engines recommends spending Roth money first
Replies: 25
Views: 2552

Re: Financial Engines recommends spending Roth money first

you need $600k of tax-deferred assets just to fill the 0% bracket for a married filing jointly couple. You need about $2.5 million to fill up the 12% bracket for MFJ. Yes, Social Security benefits reduce these amounts, but the point remains that you need a lot of tax-deferred assets to run into a r...