Search found 4052 matches

by willthrill81
Sun May 27, 2018 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Savings Rate Grid
Replies: 22
Views: 2528

Re: The Savings Rate Grid

... Savings Rate --- 00%---- 15.60 Years to FI Savings Rate --- 10%--- 13.00 Savings Rate --- 20%---- 11.70 Savings Rate --- 30%---- 10.30 Savings Rate --- 40%---- 9.40 Yes, I've come to the very same conclusion lately. We could really stretch ourselves by extending it to about 60% in a couple of y...
by willthrill81
Sat May 26, 2018 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio
Replies: 59
Views: 18030

Re: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio

I agree that it is more complicated than the 3 fund portfolio, his study shows a far greater return as well. zadie: Not according to Market Watch. The winning portfolio is the Second Grader's Three-Fund Portfolio. Best wishes. Taylor Taylor you know it’s disingenuous to compare those portfolios lis...
by willthrill81
Sat May 26, 2018 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Savings Rate Grid
Replies: 22
Views: 2528

Re: The Savings Rate Grid

Hi Willthrill81, Thank You for the calculator. It's all about the savings rate! I've been averaging 65% of after tax income going straight into my funds. It's surprising how fast they are building up. I've seen the light & it's bright :happy Yes, the savings rate is what really reduces the time to ...
by willthrill81
Sat May 26, 2018 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Savings Rate Grid
Replies: 22
Views: 2528

Re: The Savings Rate Grid

Hi Willthrill81, Thank You for the calculator. It's all about the savings rate! I've been averaging 65% of after tax income going straight into my funds. It's surprising how fast they are building up. I've seen the light & it's bright :happy Yes, the savings rate is what really reduces the time to ...
by willthrill81
Sat May 26, 2018 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Savings Rate Grid
Replies: 22
Views: 2528

Re: The Savings Rate Grid

I prefer the early retirement calculator from Networthify, but most of these calculators get the job done.

https://networthify.com/calculator/earl ... awalRate=4
by willthrill81
Fri May 25, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 9944

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

Have you crossed over to the dark side (i.e. market timing)? :twisted: Partly. But huge chunk is going from a 4% Swr to like a 1.5%. not so much market timing as need timing. in reality I am sure I would end going 85/15 time something like 40/60. Don't think I could stomache the tax hit of getting ...
by willthrill81
Fri May 25, 2018 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 9944

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

the 27.5X annual spending equates to a 3.64% withdrawal rate. But interestingly, he earlier determined that a 3.26% WR was needed for the 1929 cohort to make it, and a 3.49% WR was needed for the 1966 cohort. Three-digit withdrawal rates? Snort, guffaw, pshaw! Herr Hennes, who beat into me the impo...
by willthrill81
Fri May 25, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 34
Views: 3208

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

The problem with tilting fixed income heavily toward TIPS is that, by FI standards, they are very volatile. Considering that the most common reason FI is held is for safety (i.e. not being forced to sell at a loss) and reducing portfolio volatility, TIPS may not be appropriate for all of one's FI. ...
by willthrill81
Fri May 25, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 34
Views: 3208

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

The problem with tilting fixed income heavily toward TIPS is that, by FI standards, they are very volatile. Considering that the most common reason FI is held is for safety (i.e. not being forced to sell at a loss) and reducing portfolio volatility, TIPS may not be appropriate for all of one's FI. ...
by willthrill81
Fri May 25, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Renting vs Owning Your Home
Replies: 87
Views: 5481

Re: Renting vs Owning Your Home

Again, I'm not saying that there is a cause-and-effect relationship between home ownership and being a millionaire, but the fact that over 90% of the millionaires Stanley studied were home owners should not be dismissed out of hand. There is clearly something going on here. I guess the issue I fund...
by willthrill81
Fri May 25, 2018 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Renting vs Owning Your Home
Replies: 87
Views: 5481

Re: Renting vs Owning Your Home

That's why I specifically said "correlation does not equal causation." That being said, there's probably a reason that so many of the millionaires Stanley studied 20 years ago were shying away from imported vehicles. I seem to recall that he discussed it but don't recall his explanation. You put th...
by willthrill81
Fri May 25, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Renting vs Owning Your Home
Replies: 87
Views: 5481

Re: Renting vs Owning Your Home

Stanley's study of American millionaires found that nearly all of them owned their homes. Obviously, correlation does not equal causation, but I don't think that finding should be taken lightly. Stanley also found a strong correlation between millionaires and ownership of large domestic cars if I r...
by willthrill81
Thu May 24, 2018 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio
Replies: 59
Views: 18030

Re: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio

If you held All-value stock portfolio of Paul Merriman for the last 48 years, the returns would be 3.5 times higher than that of S&P500. Annualized return rate is 13.5%, as opposed 10.5% of S&P500. The ending balance may have been 3.5x more, but the returns were absolutely not 3.5x more. What is le...
by willthrill81
Thu May 24, 2018 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 9944

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

Regardless of whether one calls this a bucket strategy or a conventional AA, the point is that it worked better than a static AA. Do we know that to be the case? That is actually what i was questioning. If i understand it correctly, you are basing that on this statement: While he characterizes the ...
by willthrill81
Thu May 24, 2018 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 34
Views: 3208

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

The problem with tilting fixed income heavily toward TIPS is that, by FI standards, they are very volatile. Considering that the most common reason FI is held is for safety (i.e. not being forced to sell at a loss) and reducing portfolio volatility, TIPS may not be appropriate for all of one's FI. I...
by willthrill81
Thu May 24, 2018 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Renting vs Owning Your Home
Replies: 87
Views: 5481

Re: Renting vs Owning Your Home

As others have noted, renting often looks cheaper than owning because people aren't comparing apples to apples. You can't rightly compare a small apartment to a typical single family dwelling. When I recently did a comparison of our home (a 3/2 just shy of 1,200 sq. ft.) to comparable homes and fact...
by willthrill81
Thu May 24, 2018 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 9944

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

There's always a lot more discussion about worst case scenarios (very unlikely) than best (or likely) case scenarios on Bogleheads. Not that you shouldn't plan for the worst, but hopefully it is an academic exercise. I certainly hope that you're correct, but the last 100 years of world history have...
by willthrill81
Thu May 24, 2018 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 9944

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

Regardless of whether one calls this a bucket strategy or a conventional AA, the point is that it worked better than a static AA. Do we know that to be the case? That is actually what i was questioning. If i understand it correctly, you are basing that on this statement: While he characterizes the ...
by willthrill81
Thu May 24, 2018 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 9944

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

^Don't forget that with the extra cash is extra. So just because the withdrawal rate with the extra cash is 3.64% does not match up with the earlier 3.26% SWR of the 1929 cohort. In one case, the 1929 retiree started with about a 10% higher value portfolio. The 3.64% is computed by 1/27.5, accounti...
by willthrill81
Thu May 24, 2018 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants
Replies: 99
Views: 13543

Re: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants

I believe that White Coat Investor says that around 20% of M.D.s at age 60 have a net worth under $300k, barely more than the median household net worth for 65-69 year olds in the U.S. Last survey I looked at showed 24% of physicians over 65 have a net worth under $1M. There was one two years ago t...
by willthrill81
Thu May 24, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants
Replies: 99
Views: 13543

Re: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants

I think it should be clarified that Thomas Stanley was a college professor that was on the faculty of several state colleges. He himself was likely the beneficiary of government pensions. The notion that he had a negative view on civil servants or pensions misrepresents the book and the man. At lea...
by willthrill81
Thu May 24, 2018 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 470
Views: 24842

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

I chose Roth 401k/IRA as soon as it was available to me more for safety and control of my estate and as a hedge against higher taxes since that isn't something anyone can predict unless you are retiring in the next couple years. Why are you hedging against higher taxes? People have been using that ...
by willthrill81
Thu May 24, 2018 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants
Replies: 99
Views: 13543

Re: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants

I think it should be clarified that Thomas Stanley was a college professor that was on the faculty of several state colleges. He himself was likely the beneficiary of government pensions. The notion that he had a negative view on civil servants or pensions misrepresents the book and the man. At lea...
by willthrill81
Thu May 24, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 9944

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

While he characterizes the cash bucket as being in addition to the 80/20 portfolio, the 27.5X annual spending equates to a 3.64% withdrawal rate. But interestingly, he earlier determined that a 3.26% WR was needed for the 1929 cohort to make it, and a 3.49% WR was needed for the 1966 cohort. So may...
by willthrill81
Thu May 24, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants
Replies: 99
Views: 13543

Re: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants

I would define anyone who makes $350k/year as rich, even if they have a negative net worth. 'Rich' is a subjective word, but most people do not define it as having a relatively high income. Most view wealth in terms of assets . I do not view a person making $350k annually but with little net worth ...
by willthrill81
Thu May 24, 2018 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 470
Views: 24842

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

My feeling is that not being in a lower tax bracket when you retire is a nice problem to have. :sharebeer That's my perception of the situation as well. Given that the overwhelming majority of retirees are in a lower bracket (often several lower), unless one has a compelling reason to believe that ...
by willthrill81
Thu May 24, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 9944

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

While he characterizes the cash bucket as being in addition to the 80/20 portfolio, the 27.5X annual spending equates to a 3.64% withdrawal rate. But interestingly, he earlier determined that a 3.26% WR was needed for the 1929 cohort to make it, and a 3.49% WR was needed for the 1966 cohort. So may...
by willthrill81
Thu May 24, 2018 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 45
Views: 4180

Re: Retirement bonds

Since there was some discussion regarding how to value Social Security in this thread, I thought it worthwhile to note that ERN recently calculated it in a different way: how much does SS improve your withdrawal rate in retirement? Social Security, to be sure, can be a great addition to the early re...
by willthrill81
Thu May 24, 2018 12:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do "traditional slice-and-dice" portfolios split 50/50 between value and blend?
Replies: 13
Views: 908

Re: Why do "traditional slice-and-dice" portfolios split 50/50 between value and blend?

In so many words, Paul Merriman says that he advocates a 50/50 split to reduce tracking error. He argues that it will be difficult for most investors to have their portfolios look too different from 'the market'. That makes perfect sense to me. Also, if the value premium doesn't come through for you...
by willthrill81
Thu May 24, 2018 12:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 9944

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

In part 25, ERN demonstrates that having a relatively small cash cushion (i.e. bucket strategy) actually worked very well in the two worst-case scenarios for retirees (1929 and 1966). What I assume here is that the cash bucket doesn’t reduce the stock/bond investment but it’s in addition to the $1m ...
by willthrill81
Wed May 23, 2018 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman on Market Timing Discussion Thread
Replies: 12
Views: 1591

Re: Paul Merriman on Market Timing Discussion Thread

badbreath wrote:
Wed May 23, 2018 7:26 pm
I dont like the portfolio he recommends to much work.

https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/m ... -ultimate/
Out of curiosity, why? Too many slices?
by willthrill81
Wed May 23, 2018 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants
Replies: 99
Views: 13543

Re: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants

Over half of M.D.s having a net worth under $2 million at age 60-64 is amazing. A $2 million portfolio can be achieved with $2,500 investment monthly for 30 years at a 5% real return. Saving 30k/year when you are making <100k is a lot (i.e. starting doctors salaries 30 years ago). Even today there ...
by willthrill81
Wed May 23, 2018 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Trend: Bonds in Roth IRA
Replies: 14
Views: 1975

Re: New Trend: Bonds in Roth IRA

IMHO you don't need to hold bonds anywhere, at least if you're over a decade away from retirement. As far as risk goes, extra stocks in a tax-deferred account makes tax planning more difficult. The goal is to flatten out your tax rate through trying to realize approximately equal amounts of income ...
by willthrill81
Wed May 23, 2018 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants
Replies: 99
Views: 13543

Re: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants

I believe that White Coat Investor says that around 20% of M.D.s at age 60 have a net worth under $300k, barely more than the median household net worth for 65-69 year olds in the U.S. I found this surprising but after checking the data, it is not too far off, if any. https://www.beckersasc.com/asc...
by willthrill81
Wed May 23, 2018 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants
Replies: 99
Views: 13543

Re: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants

People that look rich tend to be rich. Many are "All hat, no cattle." You can't tell someone's net worth by looking at their car, their house or their clothing. Queue the typical 35 year old M.D. who has a big home, multiple new vehicles, nice clothes, and takes exotic vacations, yet has a net wort...
by willthrill81
Wed May 23, 2018 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: will the SP500 double in 7 years?
Replies: 101
Views: 11401

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

The S&P can only grow, over time, as much as the underlying economy grows... I don't think this is really true. There are at least three ways the S&P can grow. One is as the economy grows, a second is that the S&P 500 could increase the share of the total economy that it represents, and a third is ...
by willthrill81
Wed May 23, 2018 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman on Market Timing Discussion Thread
Replies: 12
Views: 1591

Re: Paul Merriman on Market Timing Discussion Thread

I think that Paul Merriman's views on trend following actually overlap a lot with those of Larry Swedroe. I agree with Paul and Meb Faber that the biggest challenge of trend following is potentially underperforming the market for a long period, perhaps a decade or more. But the challenge of buy-and-...
by willthrill81
Wed May 23, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Class Forecasts
Replies: 47
Views: 2453

Re: Asset Class Forecasts

aburntoutcase wrote:
Wed May 23, 2018 8:43 am
gmaynardkrebs wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 10:02 pm
aburntoutcase wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 8:50 pm
... would rather not go into next bear market with 60% equity.
Who would?
Someone with a modest portfolio early in savings cycle might not care whether they are at 60% or even 100%.
Hence the traditional wisdom of the glidepath.
by willthrill81
Tue May 22, 2018 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect
Replies: 78
Views: 5155

Re: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect

Similarly, Jeremy Siegel had noted long ago that the size effect is completely attributable to the single time period 1975 through 1983. Throw out that time period and the whole small-cap premium disappears. I verified this in Portfolio Visualizer and was amazed to see that from 1984 until now, the...
by willthrill81
Tue May 22, 2018 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Typical interest rate earned by target date funds in retirement?
Replies: 28
Views: 1867

Re: Typical interest rate earned by target date funds in retirement?

Based on all the work done on safe withdrawal rates and corresponding AA, Vanguard and other target date fund providers definitely seem to be catering to the risk-averse crowd with their terminal AA. Historic success rates for the '4% rule' have been highest with higher stock allocations, usually i...
by willthrill81
Tue May 22, 2018 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: will the SP500 double in 7 years?
Replies: 101
Views: 11401

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

whodidntante wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 7:14 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 6:13 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 5:48 pm
The real question is, will the S&P 500 double in 7 years?
From now?

My crystal ball is in the shop, and they don't return my calls. :(
If you repaired a crystal ball, would you give it back? :twisted:
Good point. :oops:
by willthrill81
Tue May 22, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: will the SP500 double in 7 years?
Replies: 101
Views: 11401

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

whodidntante wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 5:48 pm
The real question is, will the S&P 500 double in 7 years?
From now?

My crystal ball is in the shop, and they don't return my calls. :(
by willthrill81
Tue May 22, 2018 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low
Replies: 51
Views: 4893

Re: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low

jalbert wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 5:07 pm
And keep in mind that Rob Arnott’s research and company products are predicated on his view expressed in that article being correct.
The same could be said of anyone with any vested interest in their advice, including every financial advisor out there.
by willthrill81
Tue May 22, 2018 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low
Replies: 51
Views: 4893

Re: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low

If Rob is right, and this buy-high sell-low phenomenon in the markets is so easy to avoid, where is the outperformance by active managers? For one, the number of potential investment strategies is infinite, whereas there are only a finite number of active managers. Every potential strategy cannot b...
by willthrill81
Tue May 22, 2018 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Class Forecasts
Replies: 47
Views: 2453

Re: Asset Class Forecasts

We have been in a long bull-market for the past 9 years, so I realize that there is recency bias here, but I am constantly struck by how actual realized long-term equity returns in the US have often exceeded forecasts. Bogle himself has a terrible track record in predicting market returns. I believ...
by willthrill81
Tue May 22, 2018 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Typical interest rate earned by target date funds in retirement?
Replies: 28
Views: 1867

Re: Typical interest rate earned by target date funds in retirement?

Note that Vanguard's terminal allocation for retirement is 30/70 stock/bond, as is the Fidelity Freedom Index fund, although the latter takes longer to get there. TIAA Lifecycle funds level off at 40/60. The Government's TSP plan levels off at 20/80. I suggest that 30/70 - 50/50 is a more appropria...
by willthrill81
Mon May 21, 2018 11:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do bonds make sense if you are more than 10 years from retirement?
Replies: 11
Views: 1334

Re: Do bonds make sense if you are more than 10 years from retirement?

Bonds provide very valuable stability to a portfolio. If you only focus on return but losing sight on risk, that is not a balanced view. This probably isn't the best time to look at bonds as "stable," but I understand your meaning. :-) The point is, if your time horizon is 20+ years out, and stocks...
by willthrill81
Mon May 21, 2018 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ideal time/balance to start HSA drawdown?
Replies: 6
Views: 641

Re: Ideal time/balance to start HSA drawdown?

After-tax proceeds from HSA withdrawals might be less than after-tax proceeds from withdrawing earlier tax-free for medical expenses and putting into a taxable account. So what you're describing is simply to take advantage of only two of the HSA's tax-advantages: tax-deferred contributions and tax-...
by willthrill81
Mon May 21, 2018 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants
Replies: 99
Views: 13543

Re: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants

Retired Civil Servant here and well into the two comma club as are many of the scientists and engineers I worked with during my career. I rather enjoyed the book when it first came out, probably because it reenforced my ongoing urge to live below my means and invest the rest wisely. That being said...
by willthrill81
Mon May 21, 2018 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why 97% of People Don't Use 529 College Savings Plans."
Replies: 262
Views: 47348

Re: "Why 97% of People Don't Use 529 College Savings Plans."

I will never use a 529 plan because of simplicity. Imagine I have two kids so I have two 529 plans, a 401K (at least 1), a ROTH, HSA, taxable (maybe more than 1), etc. Too much for me. I like simplicity . I like to have as few accounts as possible. It keeps my money more focused. Hurray for simplic...