Search found 6057 matches

by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 400
Views: 76035

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Plz wrote:
Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:53 pm
I think there was a 60 year period or something where bonds crushed stocks.
There have only been two 30 year periods where long-term bonds (which very few hold) just edged out stock returns.
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 43
Views: 1471

Re: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

I don't have a good answer for the last point. If a deep crisis occurs in my late 60s, I will definitely cancel my SSA postponement plans, and this will help (numerically AND behaviorally). If a deep crisis occurs before that, I will probably get itchy, hence regulate myself and spend less from the...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 457 vs 403b
Replies: 29
Views: 1864

Re: @ Ron

Socrates28 wrote:
Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:50 pm
yeah Total Market is not to bad, but I get it at the .02 (or whatever the expense now is) through my 403(b).
That's a very good ER.

The ER for the S&P 500 in my 457 is .003%, three-tenths of one basis point. I'm content with that. :wink:
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Jim Cramer] A major Correction
Replies: 47
Views: 4927

Re: [Jim Cramer] A major Correction

The Wizard wrote:
Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:55 pm
munemaker wrote:
Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:05 pm
Why would anyone care what Jim Cramer thinks?
Because Jim Cramer is quite wealthy.
I wish I was that wealthy...
:(
Did he become wealthy by being a savvy active investor or by acting like a nut on TV? I genuinely don't know.
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 400
Views: 76035

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Whether the benefit of added diversification is worth the added cost and risk is an inherently subjective decision, mainly because all of the risks involved cannot be quantified in order to make the decision an objective one. It doesn't matter how many experts can be lined up on either side of the ...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Murphy's Law Of Retirement
Replies: 60
Views: 12203

Re: Murphy's Law Of Retirement

Also, if you stick to a SWR (safe withdrawal rate) or use a variable percentage withdrawal strategy, you should be fine over the long term. Both are discussed at length at bogleheads. Do a search and see. The entire concept of safe withdrawal rates is build around historical sequence of returns ris...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 3044

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

It’s only when the market turns, and the turn starts to look like it constitutes a trend, that our investor begins to think about conserving all those gains—whether derived from Investor’s acumen or Fed largesse, who cares? It’s money: and when it looks like the party’s over, it’s our job as invest...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Murphy's Law Of Retirement
Replies: 60
Views: 12203

Re: Murphy's Law Of Retirement

Also, if you stick to a SWR (safe withdrawal rate) or use a variable percentage withdrawal strategy, you should be fine over the long term. Both are discussed at length at bogleheads. Do a search and see. The entire concept of safe withdrawal rates is build around historical sequence of returns ris...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 43
Views: 1471

Re: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

I don't have a good answer for the last point. If a deep crisis occurs in my late 60s, I will definitely cancel my SSA postponement plans, and this will help (numerically AND behaviorally). If a deep crisis occurs before that, I will probably get itchy, hence regulate myself and spend less from the...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 43
Views: 1471

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Then let's continue the discussion in that vein. Why could a TVM (i.e. annuitization) approach work or not work to model a full retirement plan? Given that it's a generalized form of the VPW approach, I see no reason why not beyond the aforementioned 'hands on' aspect, which is frankly a feature mo...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 400
Views: 76035

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

It's not that who gives the advice is more important than the logic of that advice but that not all advice is created equal. Bogle's recommendations carry more weight than mine, and they should because he is an recognized expert. This may be a fundamental difference between you and I (for example)....
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Jim Cramer] A major Correction
Replies: 47
Views: 4927

Re: A major Correction

JoMoney wrote:
Tue Nov 13, 2018 2:42 pm
Huh... Hearing Cramer make that call actually makes me feel like it's over and we're more likely to go the other way.
We'll see ;)
I feel the same way! When others get scared, that's the time to get greedy! :twisted:
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 400
Views: 76035

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Bogle claimed that international investing wasn't necessary , and he since he made that statement, he has been unequivocally correct. You can call it luck or anything else you want, but there's no denying that the results have supported his affirmation. I guess I’d rather my gurus be smart rather t...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 3044

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

It’s only when the market turns, and the turn starts to look like it constitutes a trend, that our investor begins to think about conserving all those gains—whether derived from Investor’s acumen or Fed largesse, who cares? It’s money: and when it looks like the party’s over, it’s our job as invest...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: World's worst market timer. Buy high, sell... never?
Replies: 15
Views: 6950

Re: World's worst market timer. Buy high, sell... never?

sorry to resurrect this thread but I was just thinking about this article regarding the world's worst market timer. The key element that is missing here is that Bob had 41 years to ride the market (2013-1972). However, most people who are not in the markets for one reason or the other are more like...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 43
Views: 1471

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Instead of re-hashing a smoothing discussion, it might be more productive to focus this thread on its title though, and possible use of time value of money concepts to model a full retirement plan . This was mentioned in a few random posts in the past, but never in a focused enough manner. Then let...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 400
Views: 76035

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

. Thank you for pointing out that which seems very pervasive on this board. It seems WHO gives the advice is more important then the LOGIC of said advice. It's not that who gives the advice is more important than the logic of that advice but that not all advice is created equal. Bogle's recommendat...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 400
Views: 76035

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

The one thing I think is worth challenging, however, is the repeated appeal to authority to support an argument that is both empirically and theoretically dismissible. Amen to that. I have NEVER understood folks who can drink the kool aid just because x, y, z person says so. It amazes me how such i...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Financial] Habits of the Rich
Replies: 104
Views: 12539

Re: [Financial] Habits of the Rich

AlphaLess wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 9:19 pm
I would say that you are rich if your assets are producing SIGNIFICANTLY more income per year than your spending needs are.
Then I suppose my problem is that we're too good at spending money. If I just ratcheted back our spending, we might then be rich. :D
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 400
Views: 76035

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

... What he is saying is this way of thinking is on it's way out. In time it will be a minority if not already. I think Viv referenced a survey above. If that's what he meant to say, he sure used a lot of words to not say that. I saw the paper Vineviz linked, suggesting rising levels of internation...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 3044

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

The failure of some of Meb's funds has more to do with investors being impatient than anything else, I believe. That sounds a bit like blaming the victim. Failure to be patient is a very common problem with active investors. Fund investors buying/selling does not directly affect the per-share perfo...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 1:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 3044

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

The failure of some of Meb's funds has more to do with investors being impatient than anything else, I believe. That sounds a bit like blaming the victim. Failure to be patient is a very common problem with active investors. David Stein of the Money for the Rest of Us podcast has noted that the uni...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 43
Views: 1471

Re: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Since this thread was created to keep the VPW thread from getting derailed, let's please not turn this thread into another one focused on VPW.
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 43
Views: 1471

Re: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Can anyone identify any other disadvantages compared to VPW? A few years ago I wrote two blog posts exploring the two main variables in this approach (length of time & the rate): https://medium.com/@justusjp/flavors-of-pmt-based-withdrawals-part-1-of-2-mortality-dbe09aed5be1 https://medium.com/@jus...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 3044

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

That's not wild underperformance, per se, as it's nothing a few good years couldn't overcome. But since I can more or less implement the above portfolio on my own, that's the way I have chosen to go about it for now (technically, this is only one of a few models I run). I do keep tabs on GMOM thoug...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 457 vs 403b
Replies: 29
Views: 1864

Re: 457 vs 403b

I think there are institutional variants of both 457 and 403b but I'm not positive. With that caveat in mind, I'm allowed to contribute to BOTH my 403b and my 457b such that max contribution for 457 is 18.5k + 6k (I'm over 50) and 403b is the same so for a total tax free contribution of 49k. I'm pr...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 43
Views: 1471

Re: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

2015 wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:07 pm
Please link or quote where longinvest has explicitly stated annuitization is a required aspect of VPW, because I've not seen that in any of his explanations.
It's right from the Wiki. VPW completely exhausts the portfolio by age 100.
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 3044

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

That's why Paul Merriman has his son-in-law, who runs the firm he founded, does all of his trading for him. He says that he just doesn't want to be responsible for doing it himself anymore. I really wish there was a fund that runs this. I like the 50% buy and hold, 50% trend. VMOT and PWS and their...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stock market open today?
Replies: 13
Views: 1888

Re: Stock market open today?

AlphaLess wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:12 pm
dm200 wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:22 pm
Trivia question - why is the stock market open on Veterans Day?
It's so that bears can do their clawing.
Apparently. I wish it had stayed closed today. :annoyed
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 43
Views: 1471

Re: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

So far, the only drawback of this annuitization approach to VPW that I can see is that it requires the user to input a couple of unknowns, the number of years to amortize over and the expected rate of return, to compute the current year's withdrawals. For most Bogleheads, this seems like a very min...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 457 vs 403b
Replies: 29
Views: 1864

Re: 457 vs 403b

I too had no knowledge that 457 plans were offered at my employer until less than a year ago (that was after three years of service). I'm planning on retiring no later than age 55, so a 457 makes perfect sense for me for two reasons: (1) I can make withdrawals before age 59.5 and (2) it gives me sig...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 43
Views: 1471

Re: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

So far, the only drawback of this annuitization approach to VPW that I can see is that it requires the user to input a couple of unknowns, the number of years to amortize over and the expected rate of return, to compute the current year's withdrawals. For most Bogleheads, this seems like a very min...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 43
Views: 1471

Re: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

So far, the only drawback of this annuitization approach to VPW that I can see is that it requires the user to input a couple of unknowns, the number of years to amortize over and the expected rate of return, to compute the current year's withdrawals. For most Bogleheads, this seems like a very mini...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Financial] Habits of the Rich
Replies: 104
Views: 12539

Re: Habits of the Rich

As an early career millennial who joined the labor market shortly before 2008, and who has a long family oral tradition of being imprisioned, persecuted, and expropriated under Communism.. I live by the following (in no particular order): Live within your means. Pay yourself first. Put aside money ...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 43
Views: 1471

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

There isn't any reading on this that I'm aware of. http://howmuchcaniaffordtospendinretirement.blogspot.com/ Here's the article published in the Journal of Personal Finance: http://howmuchcaniaffordtospendinretirement.webs.com/Better_Systematic_Withdrawal_Strategy_03062014.pdf Here's a few publishe...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7810
Views: 1604810

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

There are too many investors in the market now who haven't experienced a true bear. I was speaking to one of them a couple of weeks ago who complained because his returns for the past year were less than 2%. He has no idea. I'm hoping that this bunny hopping market has shaken out a lot of those ner...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 3:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Doing taxes by hand
Replies: 83
Views: 4754

Re: Doing taxes by hand

I'm not sure that software licenses don't allow you to run multiple people's taxes through the same computer. I'm quite sure. Read and understand the license agreement. I have. From Turbotax's website: The CD/Download product is a better overall value for people who prepare tax returns for their fr...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7810
Views: 1604810

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Blueraidermike wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 1:19 pm
The buzzword today is "stagflation"...just google it today and hit news - multiple articles talking about the potential for stagflation.
With GDP high and inflation around 2%?
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 43
Views: 1471

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

I probably have a 33% probability of surviving to age 100. I admit I still do not know what that means. Not trying to be silly or difficult. Does this mean that 33% of people "like you" (relatives, ethnicity, age, gender, geographic location, background, etc) have lived to 100? Basically yes. In th...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7810
Views: 1604810

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Wow, stocks are down significantly today. Any idea what 'big news' is causing this? You never know for certain. It could be hedge funds unwinding heaven knows what. It could be markets still trying to adjust to somewhat higher interest rates and inflation. Could be anticipation of an economic slowd...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7810
Views: 1604810

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Wow, stocks are down significantly today. Any idea what 'big news' is causing this?
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 43
Views: 1471

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

I probably have at least a 1/3 chance of surviving to 100 willthrill81, what does this really mean? One out of 3 what? I probably have a 33% probability of surviving to age 100. For those wanting a more 'hands on' approach, a simple time value of money calculator can be used instead. You simply inp...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Your Fixed Income Strategy?
Replies: 89
Views: 8551

Re: What's Your Fixed Income Strategy?

81 years old widower. Retired 21 years ago. Currently 70% fixed income and 30% equities- nearly all in TIRA. Stay liquid and simple. Prepared for the worst. I hold 30% TSM, 20% TBM, 50% Money Market Prime and four SPIAs. The MMP + SPIAs will hold me till I kick the bucket and the other 50% is for m...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?
Replies: 120
Views: 11557

Re: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?

We can argue about details for ever but basically some people will say how can I possibly spend 4k/month and someone else is going to go there is no possible way I can live on 4k/month. Both are true and really aren't worth discussing as they are very personal choices. What I do find suspect is the...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Seeking Advice - Emergency Preparedness
Replies: 56
Views: 3248

Re: Seeking Advice - Emergency Preparedness

Some caution on ethanol additives as they can gum up some engines if stored a long time. A little searching and you can usually find suppliers without ethanol...typically truck stops. Heck, I'll dump extra two cycle mix in my accord (2012) and top off with fresh gas and it burns just fine. Much bet...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paycheck in retirement
Replies: 5
Views: 1945

Re: Paycheck in retirement

Wow, TDIFX only has $16 million in total assets. That's tiny. A 25% equity allocation at the point of retirement might be fine if one was planning on a Kitces/Pfau type of 'bond tent' approach, but maintaining such a low equity allocation throughout retirement is definitely on the lower bound edge o...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 3044

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

Here are some scenarios where trend following is difficult: 1) You are on vacation in a foreign country and the end of month sell/buy signal hits. To be consistent you must act even from a different time zone. 2) You have 3 accounts (Roth IRA, traditional IRA, taxable) with multiple funds in each, ...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Seeking Advice - Emergency Preparedness
Replies: 56
Views: 3248

Re: Seeking Advice - Emergency Preparedness

What is the probability that this may happen? How long have you lived there and has it ever happened before? Cold can be there without the snow. Surelyi inyour time there you have had cold that your system survived? Be realistic in your concerns. In my area we have had multiday power failures about...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 3044

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

I would strongly recommend trying to really visualize what you would be thinking at the end of 1999 if you had just seen the results in the link I posted. At the end of 1999, what reason would you have for sticking to your model that had been underperforming the past 12 years? Before you embark on ...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 11, 2018 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 3044

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

I would strongly recommend trying to really visualize what you would be thinking at the end of 1999 if you had just seen the results in the link I posted. At the end of 1999, what reason would you have for sticking to your model that had been underperforming the past 12 years? Before you embark on ...