Search found 3205 matches

by willthrill81
Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Looking for some help and fast (buying vs renting, net worth)
Replies: 36
Views: 1550

Re: Looking for some help and fast (buying vs renting, net worth)

KlangFool wrote:
Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 pm
What equity? How much do you lose by not investing the down payment? How much do you lose by mortgage interest?

Klangfool
So are you against homeownership? Or do you simply favor the least costly form of housing one can tolerate?
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Target Retirement Fund Question
Replies: 20
Views: 1443

Re: Target Retirement Fund Question

The problem with your question is that nobody can predict the future.As unlikely as it sounds,Vanguard may not even be here in 2060.I am 66 and setting up a plan for my RMD’s in 4 years and am thinking about all the things that could happen in that short span.Huge market crash,war,health issues,War...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Target Retirement Fund Question
Replies: 20
Views: 1443

Re: Target Retirement Fund Question

The problem with your question is that nobody can predict the future.As unlikely as it sounds,Vanguard may not even be here in 2060.I am 66 and setting up a plan for my RMD’s in 4 years and am thinking about all the things that could happen in that short span.Huge market crash,war,health issues,War...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Looking for some help and fast (buying vs renting, net worth)
Replies: 36
Views: 1550

Re: Looking for some help and fast (buying vs renting, net worth)

Hey Klang, I’m not sure if I’m misunderstanding or if you’re misunderstanding something, but I don’t know how you arrived at that summary. A few comments. 1) my question is does A or B come out ahead. Saying they both lose doesn’t really answer that. Ok, who loses faster, person A or B? 2) the part...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Looking for some help and fast (buying vs renting, net worth)
Replies: 36
Views: 1550

Re: Looking for some help and fast (buying vs renting, net worth)

Aside from the lost 30k, the answer depends on the mortgage interest rates in the two options. In a rising interest enviornment such as we have had the last few years and expect to have this year, option B with its lower interest rate probably wins by even more than 30k. How much better depends on ...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 18, 2018 8:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Looking for some help and fast (buying vs renting, net worth)
Replies: 36
Views: 1550

Re: Looking for some help and fast (buying vs renting, net worth)

Aside from the lost 30k, the answer depends on the mortgage interest rates in the two options. In a rising interest enviornment such as we have had the last few years and expect to have this year, option B with its lower interest rate probably wins by even more than 30k. How much better depends on ...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 18, 2018 8:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Looking for some help and fast (buying vs renting, net worth)
Replies: 36
Views: 1550

Re: Looking for some help and fast (buying vs renting, net worth)

I'm admittedly biased toward home ownership, so I'd lean toward scenario B. Unless you need the liquidity provided by saving the $2,450 monthly with paying rent instead of a higher mortgage, you'll save yourself the $30k you would otherwise be paying in rent for a year. That's money that you'll neve...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 18, 2018 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Switching to Gov't Bonds as you get closer to retirement?
Replies: 6
Views: 649

Re: Switching to Gov't Bonds as you get closer to retirement?

It's said that corporate bonds can be thought of as a 'mix' of mostly government bonds with a little equity exposure. Historically, that's how they've performed. As such, I don't care for corporate bonds; I'd rather use government bonds and more equity if/when given the choice (sometimes we don't th...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: student loan vs investing
Replies: 12
Views: 517

Re: student loan vs investing

Bob's not my name wrote:
Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:55 pm
3.9% :D
The OP said 3.8%, so I'm taking his word for it at this point. State taxes are probably causing the slight reduction.
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Payoff Mortgage Early?
Replies: 7
Views: 923

Re: Payoff Mortgage Early?

Having a mortgage can help your credit rating a little bit, if for some reason that is important. Probably not so much for you if you don’t need to borrow anyway. With $1.2 million in liquid assets and a paid off mortgage, he may not ever need debt again. Once our mortgage is paid off, I don't plan...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: student loan vs investing
Replies: 12
Views: 517

Re: student loan vs investing

Will you have enough other expenses to pass up the now higher standard deduction ($12k for singles and $24k for married filing jointly)? You'll only have about $1,250 of student loan interest to deduct. Student loan interest is an above-the-line deduction, not an itemized deduction. Ah, good point....
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 18, 2018 5:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Emergency costs
Replies: 20
Views: 1119

Re: Emergency costs

My main problem is that I don’t know what those outflows are or how much they could be. We have medical leave policies at work, long term disability insurance, again through work, solid health insrance plans, and car and homeowners insurance. Aside from a job loss (thankfully, you at least know how...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 18, 2018 5:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Talk to me about jobs with primerica
Replies: 13
Views: 695

Re: Talk to me about jobs with primerica

its not a job, its a gig where your earnings stop coming in as soon as you run out of relatives and friends to sell the insurance to. +10 Precisely. I was briefly involved with them back around 1999. They function very similarly to Northwestern Mutual. In both organizations, they thrive on getting ...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 18, 2018 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: student loan vs investing
Replies: 12
Views: 517

Re: student loan vs investing

I have some federal student debt at 5%. I'm trying to decide whether pay it down, or make minimum payments. I have $25k debt and am saving about 40k after tax a year. First of all, my thinking is that since it's deductible and my bracket is 22% that the rate is more like 3.8%. So the way I'm thinki...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 18, 2018 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE 7 vs CAPE 10
Replies: 3
Views: 436

Re: CAPE 7 vs CAPE 10

CAPE 7 will lead you to roughly the same 'conclusion' as CAPE 10: the market's valuations are significantly higher than their historic average. A big part of the problem with using valuations, however, is that they do not have a strong mean reversion tendency. CAPE (7 or 10) has been above its histo...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the evidence against slice and dice?
Replies: 58
Views: 4237

Re: What is the evidence against slice and dice?

You can really get the data to support whatever claim you want. I belive the long term returns of international have been found to be similar enough to U.S. (maybe slighly underperformed) but don't you want diversification which provides the long term benefit? And no one really knows the future, so...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method
Replies: 94
Views: 7427

Re: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method

Here's a timely post on the failings of a 4% rule, by a retired AOL exec named Dirk Cotton. Like Bill Bernstein, he replaced a lucrative first career with investment research and writing, and I've found his blog posts interesting and well-informed. Unlike other retirement withdrawal writers (Pfau, ...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard LifeStrategy Funds vs. Target Date Funds
Replies: 46
Views: 3732

Re: Vanguard LifeStrategy Funds vs. Target Date Funds

Keep in mind that without bonds you will not be able to purchase stocks when there is a decline. 10% bonds does not create that much drag. Also, while your portfolio is rather small, stock declines aren't that big of a deal. But once you have a larger portfolio, seeing a few $100K disappear is rath...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard LifeStrategy Funds vs. Target Date Funds
Replies: 46
Views: 3732

Re: Vanguard LifeStrategy Funds vs. Target Date Funds

Or is it more likely that those entrusted with safeguarding our economy will be looking for these types of economic conditions and will implement measures to prevent them, and that the next significant downturn will be the result of something that hasn't been seen before. All in all, I'd say that t...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 17, 2018 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Target Retirement Fund Question
Replies: 20
Views: 1443

Re: Target Retirement Fund Question

As much as people want to "set it and forget it" when it comes to their investments (or many aspects of their life actually), this is simply not possible. Every now and then, you genuinely need to check up on things periodically to see if your investment choices are still helping you to achieve your...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 17, 2018 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method
Replies: 94
Views: 7427

Re: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method

Most retirement research people rely on is based on historical data from the United States reflecting its ups and downs during a period in which it eventually became the leading economic superpower of all time. Because there were wars and a depression during this period, people think it covers the ...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 17, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard LifeStrategy Funds vs. Target Date Funds
Replies: 46
Views: 3732

Re: Vanguard LifeStrategy Funds vs. Target Date Funds

One other thing. About the VG target retirement income fund. The stocks/bonds ratio is only 30/70 and the Javier Estrada study showed that 30/70 (and below) had a high failure rate (12.8% for 30/70) and that 40/60 and above had low failure rates (3.5% and below). So, I don't use the VG income fund ...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 17, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 83
Views: 5376

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

And for the record, I have a significant holding in EM right now, so I'm not opposed to int'l in the slightest. Do you also pursue your trend-following strategy internationally? Do you use any tilt within your EM allocation or have a preferred fund? In my trend following, I do not discriminate betw...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 17, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 83
Views: 5376

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

I love how people gloss over the period where Int’l outperforms US as if it didn’t happen Why bet on 1 country when you can bet on the world? “Past performance doesn’t guarantee future blah blah blah”, right? Of course there have been periods where international has outperformed the U.S. But this n...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 17, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6577

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

So you quoted extremely blunt math (instead of the one I suggested) on already blunt numbers, and yeah, you find something very blurry. No surprise. It does remain blurry when using better math, mind you. Oh well, we can re-discuss the whole topic when you get closer to retirement. Then you may sta...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 17, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 83
Views: 5376

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

That being said, an obvious reason why many investors shy away from international stocks is that, in total, they have dramatically underperformed the U.S. market for almost the last 30 years. That contradicts your argument above. Investors shying away from international means higher domestic prices...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 17, 2018 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6577

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

It seem you are pointing to individual outcomes where the tails cross into the other category, and saying because of that, the metric has had no predictive power, this is simply not true. On the contrary, I've never said that CAPE or any other valuation metric has no predictive power. Statistically...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 17, 2018 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6577

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

So you quoted extremely blunt math (instead of the one I suggested) on already blunt numbers, and yeah, you find something very blurry. No surprise. It does remain blurry when using better math, mind you. Oh well, we can re-discuss the whole topic when you get closer to retirement. Then you may sta...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 17, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6577

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

Valuations are definitely useful for mid-term financial planning. And one can devise interesting ways to use them in combination with variable withdrawal methods. None of that requires a precise prediction or a strict return to the mean. None of that requires short-term predictions (aka market timi...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 17, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method
Replies: 94
Views: 7427

Re: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method

Thanks again Mnd. My intuition tells me that the combination of a long bear market in both stocks and bonds is a killer scenario, especially if it happens early on in the retirement period. By definition a long bear market is longer than early-on in retirement. That aside, it is a killer scenario. ...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 17, 2018 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think US interest rates could drop.
Replies: 62
Views: 6489

Re: I think US interest rates could drop.

For those that think interest rates are destined to rise, I'll just say one word: Japan . And I'll say 4 words: Pretty Much Everywhere Else And I'll add my 2 cents: except Europe http://myfinancialanswers.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Japan-Interest-Rate.jpg I'm sure that there were many Japanese ...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 17, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method
Replies: 94
Views: 7427

Re: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method

Thanks again Mnd. My intuition tells me that the combination of a long bear market in both stocks and bonds is a killer scenario , especially if it happens early on in the retirement period. You think that times to come will be worse than the Great Depression, when the '4% rule' worked? It could ha...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 17, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6577

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

For you to get a better feel about it, why don't you run the numbers yourself? Use CAPE and the S&P 500 historical returns and the inflation from Multpl.com, and it only requires a very simple spreadsheet to figure it out. But again... correlation is just one aspect of thing... it is really importa...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 17, 2018 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $12,000 Refrigerator? [Looking in $7k price range]
Replies: 32
Views: 3220

Re: $12,000 Refrigerator?

From Brian Regan (you really need to watch this).

Refrigerator salesman: "We have this refrigerator right here. This keeps all your food cold for $600. We got this refrigerator here that keeps all your food cold for $800. Check this out! It keeps all your food cold for $1,400!"
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method
Replies: 94
Views: 7427

Re: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method

I thought the purpose of a "sophisticated" withdrawal method was to achieve a consistent, reliable, long-term cash flow. I agree with the long-term aspect of that, but consistency and reliability may not be realistic and/or may come with too high of a price tag. To go our whole lives with variable ...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the evidence against slice and dice?
Replies: 58
Views: 4237

Re: What is the evidence against slice and dice?

similarly, here's a recent article from Swedroe about why it may be a good idea to have a large international allocation. international has done mediocre the past decade, so the next decade should be better. of course, no one knows for sure when or if this will happen. large caps could beat everyth...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6577

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

Yes that thought actually occurred to me. It forces the uncomfortable conclusion that 3% real for a 60/40’portfolio may be too high. Perhaps 2% real, but that just seems so low and almost on the verge of pointless from an investing perspective. Maybe 2.5%. I’m going to have to ponder this. Maybe a ...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6577

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

However, I'm not sure that I buy the real return argument, even though CAPE has had stronger correlations with real returns than nominal. I'm not aware of anyone who has identified how CAPE should have anything to do with inflation, and a real return is merely a nominal one less inflation. There is...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard LifeStrategy Funds vs. Target Date Funds
Replies: 46
Views: 3732

Re: Vanguard LifeStrategy Funds vs. Target Date Funds

Personally, I find the 'glidepaths' for virtually all target date funds to be overly conservative. A 25 year old isn't likely to benefit from having 10% in bonds, for instance; there will not be a significant decrease in fund drawdowns, and this will merely serve as a drag on portfolio returns for ...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6577

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

However, I'm not sure that I buy the real return argument, even though CAPE has had stronger correlations with real returns than nominal. I'm not aware of anyone who has identified how CAPE should have anything to do with inflation, and a real return is merely a nominal one less inflation. There is...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the evidence against slice and dice?
Replies: 58
Views: 4237

Re: Paul or Jack: Place Your Bets

Will you be able to stick with a strategy, whether it be TSM or tilting, that underperforms the market for a decade or more? These are difficult questions to answer, and I believe that they can only be answered by us as individual investors. is this any different from people that have a 50/50 split...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the evidence against slice and dice?
Replies: 58
Views: 4237

Re: What is the evidence against slice and dice?

Will you be able to stick with a strategy, whether it be TSM....that underperforms the market for a decade or more? What does that look like exactly? I'm having a hard time seeing TSM significantly underperform the market for a decade. In my 15 years of investing in it, it seems to have pretty much...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method
Replies: 94
Views: 7427

Re: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method

When I retired in 2000, I found many retail financial/investment advisors were still using 7% for a retirement withdrawal rate. And some of my friends were using higher rates, and opening margin accounts, etc. More examples of how "Common sense" may be more variable than you think. Precisely. Flyin...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to get child's skin in the game for college?
Replies: 135
Views: 6339

Re: How to get child's skin in the game for college?

I got my B.S. in 2003, my M.B.A. in 2004, and my Ph.D. in 2009. My wife got her B.S. in 2009 as well. We paid for 100% of the cost out of our own pocket, financing as little as possible with student loans. When we both graduated, our combined student loans were about $30k, which we paid off in four ...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 16, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method
Replies: 94
Views: 7427

Re: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method

It's hard to model "common sense", I think it could be argued that what is "common" makes very little "sense"... but a typical person who is disciplined enough to save money across there working life can probably work out something that works... maybe even have a hard time spending down everything ...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 16, 2018 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6577

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

You seem to indicate that 20 year returns above 4% are a significant possibility. Does that mean you expect PEs May go up more or earnings even higher? By definition it has to be one of those two things or both. I think that earnings will grow enough to make 5-7% real growth a definite possibility ...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 16, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard LifeStrategy Funds vs. Target Date Funds
Replies: 46
Views: 3732

Re: Vanguard LifeStrategy Funds vs. Target Date Funds

Personally, I find the 'glidepaths' for virtually all target date funds to be overly conservative. A 25 year old isn't likely to benefit from having 10% in bonds, for instance; there will not be a significant decrease in fund drawdowns, and this will merely serve as a drag on portfolio returns for ...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6577

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

You seem to indicate that 20 year returns above 4% are a significant possibility. Does that mean you expect PEs May go up more or earnings even higher? By definition it has to be one of those two things or both. I think that earnings will grow enough to make 5-7% real growth a definite possibility ...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard LifeStrategy Funds vs. Target Date Funds
Replies: 46
Views: 3732

Re: Vanguard LifeStrategy Funds vs. Target Date Funds

Personally, I find the 'glidepaths' for virtually all target date funds to be overly conservative. A 25 year old isn't likely to benefit from having 10% in bonds, for instance; there will not be a significant decrease in fund drawdowns, and this will merely serve as a drag on portfolio returns for ...
by willthrill81
Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the evidence against slice and dice?
Replies: 58
Views: 4237

Re: What is the evidence against slice and dice?

What is the evidence that this might not work well in the future? The easiest way to see it might not work is to look at other times that taking risk has not been rewarded. If big risks (like equities vs. bonds) have gone long stretches without being rewarded, I think comparatively smaller risks (l...