Search found 6037 matches

by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 55
Views: 2413

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

The failure of some of Meb's funds has more to do with investors being impatient than anything else, I believe. That sounds a bit like blaming the victim. Failure to be patient is a very common problem with active investors. Fund investors buying/selling does not directly affect the per-share perfo...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 1:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 55
Views: 2413

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

The failure of some of Meb's funds has more to do with investors being impatient than anything else, I believe. That sounds a bit like blaming the victim. Failure to be patient is a very common problem with active investors. David Stein of the Money for the Rest of Us podcast has noted that the uni...
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 32
Views: 750

Re: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Since this thread was created to keep the VPW thread from getting derailed, let's please not turn this thread into another one focused on VPW.
by willthrill81
Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 32
Views: 750

Re: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Can anyone identify any other disadvantages compared to VPW? A few years ago I wrote two blog posts exploring the two main variables in this approach (length of time & the rate): https://medium.com/@justusjp/flavors-of-pmt-based-withdrawals-part-1-of-2-mortality-dbe09aed5be1 https://medium.com/@jus...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 55
Views: 2413

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

That's not wild underperformance, per se, as it's nothing a few good years couldn't overcome. But since I can more or less implement the above portfolio on my own, that's the way I have chosen to go about it for now (technically, this is only one of a few models I run). I do keep tabs on GMOM thoug...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 457 vs 403b
Replies: 24
Views: 1429

Re: 457 vs 403b

I think there are institutional variants of both 457 and 403b but I'm not positive. With that caveat in mind, I'm allowed to contribute to BOTH my 403b and my 457b such that max contribution for 457 is 18.5k + 6k (I'm over 50) and 403b is the same so for a total tax free contribution of 49k. I'm pr...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 32
Views: 750

Re: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

2015 wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:07 pm
Please link or quote where longinvest has explicitly stated annuitization is a required aspect of VPW, because I've not seen that in any of his explanations.
It's right from the Wiki. VPW completely exhausts the portfolio by age 100.
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 55
Views: 2413

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

That's why Paul Merriman has his son-in-law, who runs the firm he founded, does all of his trading for him. He says that he just doesn't want to be responsible for doing it himself anymore. I really wish there was a fund that runs this. I like the 50% buy and hold, 50% trend. VMOT and PWS and their...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stock market open today?
Replies: 9
Views: 1365

Re: Stock market open today?

AlphaLess wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:12 pm
dm200 wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:22 pm
Trivia question - why is the stock market open on Veterans Day?
It's so that bears can do their clawing.
Apparently. I wish it had stayed closed today. :annoyed
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 32
Views: 750

Re: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

So far, the only drawback of this annuitization approach to VPW that I can see is that it requires the user to input a couple of unknowns, the number of years to amortize over and the expected rate of return, to compute the current year's withdrawals. For most Bogleheads, this seems like a very min...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 457 vs 403b
Replies: 24
Views: 1429

Re: 457 vs 403b

I too had no knowledge that 457 plans were offered at my employer until less than a year ago (that was after three years of service). I'm planning on retiring no later than age 55, so a 457 makes perfect sense for me for two reasons: (1) I can make withdrawals before age 59.5 and (2) it gives me sig...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 32
Views: 750

Re: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

So far, the only drawback of this annuitization approach to VPW that I can see is that it requires the user to input a couple of unknowns, the number of years to amortize over and the expected rate of return, to compute the current year's withdrawals. For most Bogleheads, this seems like a very min...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 32
Views: 750

Re: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

So far, the only drawback of this annuitization approach to VPW that I can see is that it requires the user to input a couple of unknowns, the number of years to amortize over and the expected rate of return, to compute the current year's withdrawals. For most Bogleheads, this seems like a very mini...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Financial] Habits of the Rich
Replies: 70
Views: 9101

Re: Habits of the Rich

As an early career millennial who joined the labor market shortly before 2008, and who has a long family oral tradition of being imprisioned, persecuted, and expropriated under Communism.. I live by the following (in no particular order): Live within your means. Pay yourself first. Put aside money ...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 32
Views: 750

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

There isn't any reading on this that I'm aware of. http://howmuchcaniaffordtospendinretirement.blogspot.com/ Here's the article published in the Journal of Personal Finance: http://howmuchcaniaffordtospendinretirement.webs.com/Better_Systematic_Withdrawal_Strategy_03062014.pdf Here's a few publishe...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7809
Views: 1603862

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

There are too many investors in the market now who haven't experienced a true bear. I was speaking to one of them a couple of weeks ago who complained because his returns for the past year were less than 2%. He has no idea. I'm hoping that this bunny hopping market has shaken out a lot of those ner...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 3:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Doing taxes by hand
Replies: 83
Views: 4646

Re: Doing taxes by hand

I'm not sure that software licenses don't allow you to run multiple people's taxes through the same computer. I'm quite sure. Read and understand the license agreement. I have. From Turbotax's website: The CD/Download product is a better overall value for people who prepare tax returns for their fr...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7809
Views: 1603862

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Blueraidermike wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 1:19 pm
The buzzword today is "stagflation"...just google it today and hit news - multiple articles talking about the potential for stagflation.
With GDP high and inflation around 2%?
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 32
Views: 750

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

I probably have a 33% probability of surviving to age 100. I admit I still do not know what that means. Not trying to be silly or difficult. Does this mean that 33% of people "like you" (relatives, ethnicity, age, gender, geographic location, background, etc) have lived to 100? Basically yes. In th...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7809
Views: 1603862

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Wow, stocks are down significantly today. Any idea what 'big news' is causing this? You never know for certain. It could be hedge funds unwinding heaven knows what. It could be markets still trying to adjust to somewhat higher interest rates and inflation. Could be anticipation of an economic slowd...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7809
Views: 1603862

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Wow, stocks are down significantly today. Any idea what 'big news' is causing this?
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 32
Views: 750

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

I probably have at least a 1/3 chance of surviving to 100 willthrill81, what does this really mean? One out of 3 what? I probably have a 33% probability of surviving to age 100. For those wanting a more 'hands on' approach, a simple time value of money calculator can be used instead. You simply inp...
by willthrill81
Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Your Fixed Income Strategy?
Replies: 89
Views: 8473

Re: What's Your Fixed Income Strategy?

81 years old widower. Retired 21 years ago. Currently 70% fixed income and 30% equities- nearly all in TIRA. Stay liquid and simple. Prepared for the worst. I hold 30% TSM, 20% TBM, 50% Money Market Prime and four SPIAs. The MMP + SPIAs will hold me till I kick the bucket and the other 50% is for m...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?
Replies: 120
Views: 11341

Re: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?

We can argue about details for ever but basically some people will say how can I possibly spend 4k/month and someone else is going to go there is no possible way I can live on 4k/month. Both are true and really aren't worth discussing as they are very personal choices. What I do find suspect is the...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Seeking Advice - Emergency Preparedness
Replies: 56
Views: 3185

Re: Seeking Advice - Emergency Preparedness

Some caution on ethanol additives as they can gum up some engines if stored a long time. A little searching and you can usually find suppliers without ethanol...typically truck stops. Heck, I'll dump extra two cycle mix in my accord (2012) and top off with fresh gas and it burns just fine. Much bet...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paycheck in retirement
Replies: 5
Views: 1631

Re: Paycheck in retirement

Wow, TDIFX only has $16 million in total assets. That's tiny. A 25% equity allocation at the point of retirement might be fine if one was planning on a Kitces/Pfau type of 'bond tent' approach, but maintaining such a low equity allocation throughout retirement is definitely on the lower bound edge o...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 55
Views: 2413

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

Here are some scenarios where trend following is difficult: 1) You are on vacation in a foreign country and the end of month sell/buy signal hits. To be consistent you must act even from a different time zone. 2) You have 3 accounts (Roth IRA, traditional IRA, taxable) with multiple funds in each, ...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Seeking Advice - Emergency Preparedness
Replies: 56
Views: 3185

Re: Seeking Advice - Emergency Preparedness

What is the probability that this may happen? How long have you lived there and has it ever happened before? Cold can be there without the snow. Surelyi inyour time there you have had cold that your system survived? Be realistic in your concerns. In my area we have had multiday power failures about...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 55
Views: 2413

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

I would strongly recommend trying to really visualize what you would be thinking at the end of 1999 if you had just seen the results in the link I posted. At the end of 1999, what reason would you have for sticking to your model that had been underperforming the past 12 years? Before you embark on ...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 11, 2018 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 55
Views: 2413

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

I would strongly recommend trying to really visualize what you would be thinking at the end of 1999 if you had just seen the results in the link I posted. At the end of 1999, what reason would you have for sticking to your model that had been underperforming the past 12 years? Before you embark on ...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 11, 2018 6:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Don't pay full price for SiriusXM radio
Replies: 82
Views: 13535

Re: Don't pay full price for SiriusXM radio

Atilla wrote:
Sun Nov 11, 2018 2:27 pm
With modern vehicles these days you can stream pretty much anything you want for free thru your phone to your vehicle audio. I see no need whatever for a satellite radio service.
That assumes that you have a phone with unlimited data. Many of us do not.
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 11, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 55
Views: 2413

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

As a side node, IMHO using bonds as the safe asset in the backtest is overly optimistic considering the era PV has data for. The chance of treasuries repeating their performance since 1980 is basically zero unless you think yields could drop to -5% or so. Especially as a Euro area guy, I'm not expe...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 11, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 55
Views: 2413

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

This one compares buy-and-hold of VFINX (Vanguard's S&P 500 index fund) from 1985 through last month. A 10 month moving average is used (basically a ~210 day moving average with no more than one trade per month). https://i.imgur.com/LXkRUvU.jpg You can see that timing underperformed buy-and-hold fo...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 11, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 340
Views: 73171

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

I do not question the motives, integrity, or intelligence of those who argue that international equities are unnecessary. It is unfortunate that others choose to do so. Also, I don't recall ever seeing the "100% US" crowd leveling the same kind of personal attacks toward strong believers in interna...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Seeking Advice - Emergency Preparedness
Replies: 56
Views: 3185

Re: Seeking Advice - Emergency Preparedness

My sub-$1000 generator runs a fridge, freezer, office fridge, coffee pot, wifi, multiple computers, tablets, smart phones, floor heaters, and floor lamps. I keep a couple gas cans filled and it runs all night on a full tank. Not really feasible in a week long power failure with gas stations not abl...
by willthrill81
Sun Nov 11, 2018 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 340
Views: 73171

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

I do not question the motives, integrity, or intelligence of those who argue that international equities are unnecessary. It is unfortunate that others choose to do so. Also, I don't recall ever seeing the "100% US" crowd leveling the same kind of personal attacks toward strong believers in interna...
by willthrill81
Sat Nov 10, 2018 8:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Seeking Advice - Emergency Preparedness
Replies: 56
Views: 3185

Re: Seeking Advice - Emergency Preparedness

It was only during Hurricane Sandy that I realized that my natural gas water heater also needed electricity to run. As does the furance. :oops: Yup. Both they both only need 120 volt power, and the smallest generator out there can power either of those appliances. Of course not all NG water heaters...
by willthrill81
Sat Nov 10, 2018 8:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Seeking Advice - Emergency Preparedness
Replies: 56
Views: 3185

Re: Seeking Advice - Emergency Preparedness

go_mets wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:41 pm
It was only during Hurricane Sandy that I realized that my natural gas water heater also needed electricity to run.
As does the furance.
:oops:
Yup. Both they both only need 120 volt power, and the smallest generator out there can power either of those appliances.
by willthrill81
Sat Nov 10, 2018 5:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Seeking Advice - Emergency Preparedness
Replies: 56
Views: 3185

Re: Seeking Advice - Emergency Preparedness

After Hurricane Sandy: I bought : an inverter that runs on car battery a 100 ft heavy duty extension cord to run into the house from the car parked outside Mr. Buddy propane heater a long-reach butane lighter to ignite gas stove to cook and heat water perhaps a butane cooktop if you don't have natu...
by willthrill81
Sat Nov 10, 2018 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 55
Views: 2413

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

To add an anecdote of how the strategy can be hard to follow behaviorally: I'm a bit overweight (compared to global market cap) in an Emerging Markets ETF. 12-month momentum told me to get out about 2 months ago. I was like "This stuff was cheap when I bought it; it's an absolute bargain now!", so ...
by willthrill81
Sat Nov 10, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 55
Views: 2413

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

Whipsaws may have been affordable and worth it in the past, but in principle, a market oscillating at just the wrong frequency could produce massive drawdowns for the strategy without much drawdown in the market. This might happen in the short-run, but over an extended period of time, I've never se...
by willthrill81
Sat Nov 10, 2018 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 55
Views: 2413

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

.... You can see that timing underperformed buy-and-hold for a long time, 1989-2008. That's typical for this strategy: it underperforms during bull markets but outperforms in bear markets. But over the entire period, its return was nearly identical to buy-and-hold but with significantly lower drawd...
by willthrill81
Sat Nov 10, 2018 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 55
Views: 2413

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

WestUniversity wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 3:56 pm
Looks like a perfect model for learning about a term in the market called whipsawed. Buying high and selling low...
People make far too big of a deal about whipsaws. They are inevitable, but in the end, they don't matter. What matters are returns and risk.
by willthrill81
Sat Nov 10, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 55
Views: 2413

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

1) Why isn't this more popular? 1. It 'shouldn't' be possible according to the EMH. 2. It requires effort. 3. It is certain to underperform buy-and-hold at some point, and this underperformance can go on for a long time. 2) Is there a low-cost ETF that'll run this strategy for me? No. 3) What about...
by willthrill81
Sat Nov 10, 2018 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 55
Views: 2413

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

This site gives an excellent and very detailed overview of trend following. From that site, here's an excellent explanation of why many trend following proponents have had poor performance: Looking at (2) specifically, why do the most vocal practitioners of market timing tend to perform poorly as i...
by willthrill81
Sat Nov 10, 2018 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Doing taxes by hand
Replies: 83
Views: 4646

Re: Doing taxes by hand

I'm not sure that software licenses don't allow you to run multiple people's taxes through the same computer. I'm quite sure. Read and understand the license agreement. I have. From Turbotax's website: The CD/Download product is a better overall value for people who prepare tax returns for their fr...
by willthrill81
Sat Nov 10, 2018 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 340
Views: 73171

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Bogle isn't just saying "Past performance will repeat itself in the future" or "You're American, so you should buy American stocks." He might not be JUST saying those things, but those two statements are the crux of his argument and the two main lines of defense mounted by his supporters on this to...
by willthrill81
Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 340
Views: 73171

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

I’m not saying Bogle is stupid or malicious: just that’s he’s wrong in this subject and his arguments are illogical. The argument that someone an opposing view is being "illogical" is common but not necessarily true. Bogle isn't just saying "Past performance will repeat itself in the future" or "Yo...
by willthrill81
Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Seeking Advice - Emergency Preparedness
Replies: 56
Views: 3185

Re: Seeking Advice - Emergency Preparedness

install a natural gas generator...... or get solar panels with a battery that can hold a charge for a few days. Thanks - I am leaning that way (generator). The solar panels plus batteries is much more expensive. The solar panels plus battery also have a federal 30% credit, and you will not have an ...
by willthrill81
Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 340
Views: 73171

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Jack Bogle consistently makes compelling arguments for NOT investing in ex-US, as a US investor: He consistently makes such arguments, it's true, but only a subset of investors find them compelling thankfully. And I assume these people invest based on authority(Jack) and their strong emotions on pa...