Search found 10270 matches

by willthrill81
Tue Jun 25, 2019 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do large personal portfolios include bonds?
Replies: 168
Views: 12356

Re: Why do large personal portfolios include bonds?

SUre... paying it as a lump sum at the beginning may have some benefits, specially if you are in a market high But you just need to compare results in FIRECALC. There is always a break even rate that may make things go towards one side or the other I have done so. If what you're saying is accurate,...
by willthrill81
Tue Jun 25, 2019 9:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Worried about the future/not saving enough
Replies: 39
Views: 4739

Re: Worried about the future/not saving enough

To help answer this question willthrill81 and a few others have asked, here is the student loan breakdown: $9k at 4.75% variable $5k at 5.25% variable $37k at 3.5% fixed You are already making maximum annual contributions to your tax-advantaged accounts. To state the obvious, the first priority for...
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 24, 2019 9:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Umbrella insurance - Uninsured/Underinsured motorist coverage
Replies: 10
Views: 781

Re: Umbrella insurance - Uninsured/Underinsured motorist coverage

My maternal grandparents and, at the time, very young cousin were involved in a serious car crash more than 20 years ago, and the other driver, who died in the accident, was responsible and grossly underinsured. Thankfully, all three parties were very well covered with uninsured/underinsured coverag...
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 24, 2019 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SPY buyback adjusted yield
Replies: 10
Views: 676

Re: SPY buyback adjusted yield

S&P put out press release today about Q1 2019. https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17553433 The buyback + dividend yield for Q1 2019 annualized is 5.4%. Yes we need to net for share issuave but i believe total share issuacne is a bit punitive because not all shared are issued for executive comp...lots of i...
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 24, 2019 9:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay Cash for Primary Residence?
Replies: 41
Views: 3815

Re: Pay Cash for Primary Residence?

OP, good for you. I'm glad that it all worked out well for you and wish your family the best. :beer With our monthly daycare costs decreasing to ~ $1,300 (for three more years) and our other most significant monthly expense being our property taxes (at ~ $1,400), we plan to slowly beef back up our t...
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Frugal or cheap?
Replies: 104
Views: 7771

Re: Frugal or cheap?

Couple kids will not fit in 1400 sqft. Yeah, yeah, I know they did back in 50s or whatever but now they won't. If I were you I would just buy another house rather than sink in $100K in to the current house. :D I got a chuckle out of that. Me too, especially since our family of three fits nicely in ...
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do large personal portfolios include bonds?
Replies: 168
Views: 12356

Re: Why do large personal portfolios include bonds?

If you mean that using a mortgage a leverage increases your upside potential, that was irrelevant to the analysis I was doing, which pertained to safe withdrawal rates. SWRs are historically constrained by the worst historical instances. Basically, leverage increases both the upside and downside ta...
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 24, 2019 9:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Worried about the future/not saving enough
Replies: 39
Views: 4739

Re: Worried about the future/not saving enough

Thank you all for the thoughtful replies and advice. The amount of support people provide is incredible and makes me proud to be a member of this fine website. When time allows (I have a toddler so not a lot of free time!) I will try to create a second posting with portfolio advice. I'm not entirel...
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 24, 2019 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 182
Views: 44034

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

azanon, thanks for the superb work on this. A couple of questions: how often and at what thresholds have you been rebalancing your version of the all-weather portfolio? I ask as someone who's been implementing your 9/2018 version since mid April 2019. I hesitate to incur taxes on short term capital...
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 24, 2019 9:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Semi-Early Retirees: 401K to Roth IRA Conversions (Should I or Shouldn't I?)
Replies: 21
Views: 1888

Re: Semi-Early Retirees: 401K to Roth IRA Conversions (Should I or Shouldn't I?)

willthrill81: thanks for responding. Yes, my gut tells me to convert while I have some certainly, rather than wait for RMD's down the road an uncertainty wrt married still or widow(ed) and uncertainty of tax brackets. Re: your second post, I wish we were in the 12% bracket, but with DH pension, RMD...
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Personal liability umbrella: how much coverage?
Replies: 9
Views: 1195

Re: Personal liability umbrella: how much coverage?

If I recall this correctly then the Umbrella is on top of the underlying insurance, which is usually elevated already to make you eligible for the umbrella policy - so your 2 M Umbrella might be more like a 3 million (depending on where the claim comes from I guess). Also, part of the idea of the U...
by willthrill81
Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do large personal portfolios include bonds?
Replies: 168
Views: 12356

Re: Why do large personal portfolios include bonds?

Sorry - I meant to be saying a house without a mortgage. Basically the idea was that if you weren't paying rent or a mortgage then you are not spending a fixed amount each month. You would need an equivalent amount in fixed income bonds to make up for that if you were supporting the mortgage paymen...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 23, 2019 11:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Refinance into PMI possibly a good move?
Replies: 7
Views: 408

Re: Refinance into PMI possibly a good move?

Only current bond purchases are total bond index funds through Roth IRA and 457 accounts. Divert these funds toward mortgage if earning less than mortgage interest? You should probably max out your tax-advantaged space before you begin trying to pay down the mortgage, even if it means that you're b...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 23, 2019 11:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire in 1 year at 53
Replies: 54
Views: 9109

Re: Can I retire in 1 year at 53

OP, you're in great shape. Once SS hits, it will be the cherry on the icing on your delicious cake. Enjoy retirement! :sharebeer
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 23, 2019 11:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Refinance into PMI possibly a good move?
Replies: 7
Views: 408

Re: Refinance into PMI possibly a good move?

This is our "forever" home so I think we are here for the next 30 plus years. The bank has said that we can request the PMI be removed at 80% with automatic removal occurring at 78%. I certainly hope to pay off faster than the 30 year term, but have read many threads on the "pay down mortgage vs. i...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 23, 2019 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities objectively considered
Replies: 126
Views: 9659

Re: Annuities objectively considered

Doesn't AIG have an inflation adjusted spia as well? My understanding is that only Providential still offers them. Several offer fixed annual increases for SPIAs, like a +3% per year. There's no way I can see why I would ever buy a SPIA that didn't at least have a fixed adjustment, and an inflation...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 23, 2019 11:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Refinance into PMI possibly a good move?
Replies: 7
Views: 408

Re: Refinance into PMI possibly a good move?

I agree that it's a no-brainer to refinance.

You might be able to request PMI to be removed once your LTV reaches 80%. Many lenders will do this.

Do you plan to pay off the mortgage within the original term?
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 23, 2019 11:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Semi-Early Retirees: 401K to Roth IRA Conversions (Should I or Shouldn't I?)
Replies: 21
Views: 1888

Re: Semi-Early Retirees: 401K to Roth IRA Conversions (Should I or Shouldn't I?)

We're in the 22% bracket, but next year we'll be able to do enough tax-deferred contributions to bring us down to the 12% bracket. The plan is to then do enough Roth conversions of an old rollover traditional IRA to bring us back to the top of the 12% bracket, basically trading tax-deferred space, w...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 23, 2019 10:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Personal liability umbrella: how much coverage?
Replies: 9
Views: 1195

Re: Personal liability umbrella: how much coverage?

Personally I think that's too much coverage. Is your home equity at risk? This varies by state. Amounts in 401(k)s are protected from judgments and bankruptcy. The rule of thumb about coverage equal to assets has no real basis. If your net worth is $3M and you get a policy for $4M, there’s nothing ...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 23, 2019 10:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone own gold?
Replies: 86
Views: 8928

Re: Does anyone own gold?

I have a small amount of gold, but a stupid large amount of silver. It’s down about 50% from my purchase price. When silver was spiking 5-6 years ago and got up to ~$50 an ounce, I thought about selling, but didn’t. Big mistake. I don’t need the money, so I continue to keep the crap in the bottom o...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 23, 2019 10:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Semi-Early Retirees: 401K to Roth IRA Conversions (Should I or Shouldn't I?)
Replies: 21
Views: 1888

Re: Semi-Early Retirees: 401K to Roth IRA Conversions (Should I or Shouldn't I?)

Here's something that doesn't come up as often as it should in the 'tax-deferred vs. Roth' discussions. 401k and traditional IRAs have RMDs, which are not a real bugaboo in most situations, but due to them, a single widow(er) can be unexpectedly thrust into a significantly higher tax bracket. This c...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA account (Tips for newbie)
Replies: 15
Views: 901

Re: HSA account (Tips for newbie)

Can you pay for healthcare costs from a credit card, get your 2 or 3% in points, then reimburse yourself from the HSA? Heck if you have a large amount you could open a new credit card and get the $400 or $500 bonus even.... Yes, that's not a bad strategy, but it's better to hold off on reimbursing ...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency Fund AA
Replies: 18
Views: 1276

Re: Emergency Fund AA

Here's an alternative view: 'overfund' your EF by about 25% and invest it in Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund (35/65 AA). Its maximum drawdown over its nearly 50 year history was about -18%. While it isn't likely to perform as well in the near future as it did in the past, it's likely to outperform ...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA account (Tips for newbie)
Replies: 15
Views: 901

Re: HSA account (Tips for newbie)

I'd pay with the checking account and then only tap into the HSA if you needed the money. Keep the receipt and you can reimburse yourself whenever you want for it. If you don't need the cash, then you can leave it invested. +1 If you don't need the cash now, leave the money in the HSA invested. Kee...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RIP to value investing...
Replies: 40
Views: 4506

Re: RIP to value investing...

brianc78 wrote:
Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:01 pm
Jesteroftheswamp wrote:
Sun Jun 23, 2019 8:47 pm
I’m confused, so does the mean Vanguard Small Cap Value Fund won’t give me a decent return?
Nobody knows the answer to that. Just pick a fund/funds that you won’t be tempted to jump out of if it underperforms for a few years long time.
Fixed that for ya. :wink:
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 23, 2019 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RIP to value investing...
Replies: 40
Views: 4506

Re: RIP to value investing...

I predict that value will begin outperforming in the near future. :wink: From 1926-1940, 1974-1981, and 1989-2001, the value premium was zero or negative. The small premium was even more haphazard, being zero from 1946-1977, over 30 years. We've known all along that factors have underperformed for y...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 23, 2019 2:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio review and general early retirement advice
Replies: 11
Views: 1323

Re: Portfolio review and general early retirement advice

willthrill, My wife and I have spent so much time in academia that it's hard to imagine our kids not going to college and using the 529 but it's a good reminder that there are other paths in life. We are definitely of the same mindset as you in that we don't want two simultaneous mortgages to get t...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 23, 2019 2:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Frugal or cheap?
Replies: 104
Views: 7771

Re: Frugal or cheap?

If the $100k addition gets you at least $80k of value you can recoup when you sell , I'd go for it. Moving to a larger house will cost prob at least $20k, and you can tailor the addition to your liking. The housing market blows in many areas of the US with very slim pickings esp in the lower price ...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 23, 2019 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do large personal portfolios include bonds?
Replies: 168
Views: 12356

Re: Why do large personal portfolios include bonds?

A house with a mortgage isn't too dissimilar from a fixed income section of a portfolio. I too believe that high equity allocations are generally preferable, but remember that a mortgage is a negative bond and leverages up your portfolio. For instance, someone with $100k in stocks and a $50k mortga...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 23, 2019 10:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Sell Short Term Bonds to Pay Off Mortgage?
Replies: 209
Views: 8142

Re: Should We Sell Short Term Bonds to Pay Off Mortgage?

Beyond that, my stock response to people in your situation is let’s say you didn’t have a mortgage having paid off your home a long time ago. Would you mortgage your home to put money into the bond market? Correct. It's true that leveraging your home via a mortgage in order to buy stocks (not bonds...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 23, 2019 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do large personal portfolios include bonds?
Replies: 168
Views: 12356

Re: Why do large personal portfolios include bonds?

A house with a mortgage isn't too dissimilar from a fixed income section of a portfolio. I too believe that high equity allocations are generally preferable, but remember that a mortgage is a negative bond and leverages up your portfolio. For instance, someone with $100k in stocks and a $50k mortga...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home country bias - does it skew US/Int allocation?
Replies: 15
Views: 750

Re: Home country bias - does it skew US/Int allocation?

I'm in the US. Forty percent of my stock stake is international. My reasoning started with global market cap, then I made a minor adjustment decreasing currency risk to take into account the fact I expect to stay and spend here. If that's a skew then so be it. +1 Tyler at Portfolio Charts has a gre...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do large personal portfolios include bonds?
Replies: 168
Views: 12356

Re: Why do large personal portfolios include bonds?

A house with a mortgage isn't too dissimilar from a fixed income section of a portfolio. I too believe that high equity allocations are generally preferable, but remember that a mortgage is a negative bond and leverages up your portfolio. For instance, someone with $100k in stocks and a $50k mortga...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Switch 403(b) to an IRA or Stay?
Replies: 17
Views: 756

Re: Switch 403(b) to an IRA or Stay?

Clearly the next course of action is to research the available 403b plans. Doesn’t your employer provide information on the various plans? Go through them all, paying particular attention to fees and expense ratios of the mutual funds you’d be interested in. Out of the list provided by the OP, I wo...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Switch 403(b) to an IRA or Stay?
Replies: 17
Views: 756

Re: Switch 403(b) to an IRA or Stay?

Socrates wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:12 pm
employer match
I have never heard of a teacher getting a 403(b) match

most teachers usually qualify for a pension and the employer contributes to that
At least some in our area get both a 403b match and a pension.
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio review and general early retirement advice
Replies: 11
Views: 1323

Re: Portfolio review and general early retirement advice

Our expenses are right about 100k/year. That includes $18k/year we've been putting towards the car and student loans and $25k/year for PITI. After these expenses, we have about $40k/year to save to achieve our goals. Considering that your expenses will only be $75k after your mortgage is paid off, ...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Real Estate investment guidance needed
Replies: 17
Views: 1450

Re: Real Estate investment guidance needed

If I wanted some exposure to the real estate space beyond REITs but didn't want the hassle and expense of direct ownership, I'd strongly consider something like FundThatFlip, a private real estate money lender that uses first-position liens on property as security, or a similar real estate crowdfund...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Switch 403(b) to an IRA or Stay?
Replies: 17
Views: 756

Re: Switch 403(b) to an IRA or Stay?

Also do you get a match from work in your 403b and if so you should try to maximize that match since it won't be available in an IRA. Spot on. Even with those fees, getting a 50% or higher 'return' in the form of an employer match is still well worth it. Beyond that, the OP should definitely contri...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I refinance my mortgage?
Replies: 15
Views: 1274

Re: Should I refinance my mortgage?

I keep thinking that there must be a catch. Someone has to pay those fees. The way it works is something like this; 1) Even though your lender is still servicing your loan they likely sold it off not long after the loan was issued so they do not care about giving up the old higher interest rate loa...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 22, 2019 9:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Frugal or cheap?
Replies: 104
Views: 7771

Re: Frugal or cheap?

One more vote for "happy wife - happy life" being a dumb saying It's actually grounded in empirical data. A recent study published in the Journal of Marriage and Family found that men who are unhappily married may still be happy with their lives overall -- as long as their wives are satisfied with ...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 22, 2019 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Volatility Targeting Improves Risk Adjusted Returns
Replies: 25
Views: 1625

Re: Larry Swedroe: Volatility Targeting Improves Risk Adjusted Returns

Fair point, but the concept is very similar. Not really. DMRL (managed risk/volatility targeting) doesn't pick stocks. They invest in SP500 (or another index), when volatility gets high they move some money to safe assets (cash or treasuries). When volatility gets low again, they move back. This ca...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Frugal or cheap?
Replies: 104
Views: 7771

Re: Frugal or cheap?

abuss368 wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:48 pm
dm200 wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 2:59 pm
"happy wife - happy life"
Priceless.
Believe me, it has a price tag. :mrgreen:
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Volatility Targeting Improves Risk Adjusted Returns
Replies: 25
Views: 1625

Re: Larry Swedroe: Volatility Targeting Improves Risk Adjusted Returns

The problem is taxes. How do you implement such a strategy in anything other than a tax sheltered account? I just don’t have enough in mine to make this worth doing. You could buy any one of the many ETFs that employ it. Those ETFs will also distribute lots of capital gains to you, right? Not neces...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2198
Views: 160549

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Thank you to @HEDGEFUNDIE and those who are willing to share their thoughts and strategies. Any thoughts on constructing a portfolio which mimic's Taleb's Black Swan set up where the majority of the portfolio is in ultra-safe positions and a very minor part which has tremendous upside when the over...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Volatility Targeting Improves Risk Adjusted Returns
Replies: 25
Views: 1625

Re: Larry Swedroe: Volatility Targeting Improves Risk Adjusted Returns

I'm a bit surprised that this thread didn't get more attention. Volatility targeting has been demonstrated to be a very effective means of controlling downside risk with minimal negative impact on returns and potentially even positive impact. Building on vineviz's excellent post above, potentially ...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Frugal or cheap?
Replies: 104
Views: 7771

Re: Frugal or cheap?

Wife and I have steady stable income of 235k combined. We are 32 and were diligent to pay off our 180k home in 6 years. We have been working for 9 years and have 430k in retirement accounts and 180k in a brokerage account. Wife wants to do a 100k addition to our home. I am struggling to spend as we...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Frugal or cheap?
Replies: 104
Views: 7771

Re: Frugal or cheap?

Wife and I have steady stable income of 235k combined. We are 32 and were diligent to pay off our 180k home in 6 years. We have been working for 9 years and have 430k in retirement accounts and 180k in a brokerage account. Wife wants to do a 100k addition to our home. I am struggling to spend as we...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio review and general early retirement advice
Replies: 11
Views: 1323

Re: Portfolio review and general early retirement advice

You haven't said anything about your income or household expenses. For early retirees, the rule of thumb is that you need about 30-33x your anticipated expenses, inclusive of all income taxes. As such, an estimate of your expenses in retirement are necessary to determine how big your needed portfoli...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 22, 2019 5:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wife considering returning to work
Replies: 33
Views: 3398

Re: Wife considering returning to work

Why not just work on kid #2 now and then have her go back to work once they are in school? Would be tough to restart a career only to kill it again so quickly. In my mind the years before school are the most valuable of all(we are just finishing those years now) to get face to face time if you can....
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 22, 2019 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Frugal or cheap?
Replies: 104
Views: 7771

Re: Frugal or cheap?

Wife and I have steady stable income of 235k combined. We are 32 and were diligent to pay off our 180k home in 6 years. We have been working for 9 years and have 430k in retirement accounts and 180k in a brokerage account. Wife wants to do a 100k addition to our home. I am struggling to spend as we...