Search found 6372 matches

by willthrill81
Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: does the 4% withdrawal guideline include dividends?
Replies: 42
Views: 2394

Re: does the 4% withdrawal guideline include dividends?

Thank you for using the word guideline rather than rule. Really it's only a rough approximation to help figure out, more or less, how big your nest egg needs to be to support your aspirational spending. Amen. Much as we can wish otherwise, there are no "RULES" that will guarantee success in investi...
by willthrill81
Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: does the 4% withdrawal guideline include dividends?
Replies: 42
Views: 2394

Re: does the 4% withdrawal guideline include dividends?

Thank you for using the word guideline rather than rule. Really it's only a rough approximation to help figure out, more or less, how big your nest egg needs to be to support your aspirational spending. Amen. Much as we can wish otherwise, there are no "RULES" that will guarantee success in investi...
by willthrill81
Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: does the 4% withdrawal guideline include dividends?
Replies: 42
Views: 2394

Re: does the 4% withdrawal guideline include dividends?

Earlier this year, we had a great thread discussing what happened to those who retired in the year 2000, the worst starting year for retirees since the 1970s, and used the '4% rule' to make withdrawals. The bottom line is that they're in good shape now, although it didn't look so good for them in 20...
by willthrill81
Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses
Replies: 123
Views: 16960

Re: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses

Only if they survive the one to 2 years of unemployment during the recession. If they do not survive, the future earning does not matter. You have to survive in order to succeed. Is it your argument that these 30 year-olds will starve to death during the recession? Even if they lose everything fina...
by willthrill81
Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?
Replies: 113
Views: 4668

Re: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?

Negative annual returns on LT treasuries since 1977: 1978: - 0.74% 1980: - 1.29% 1987: - 2.64% 1994: - 7.19% 2009: - 10.17% 2013: - 8.57% 2018: - 1.76% Your numbers are off. According to Portfolio Visualizer, LTT had significantly worse returns in several of those years than what you cite. Further,...
by willthrill81
Sun Dec 09, 2018 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses
Replies: 123
Views: 16960

Re: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-be-prepared-losses?nopaging=1 Larry reviews a Fama French paper titled “Volatility Lessons”. He starts off reviewing the historic size of the market, size, and value premiums. He then begins to describe their riskiness by looking at the sta...
by willthrill81
Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses
Replies: 123
Views: 16960

Re: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-be-prepared-losses?nopaging=1 Larry reviews a Fama French paper titled “Volatility Lessons”. He starts off reviewing the historic size of the market, size, and value premiums. He then begins to describe their riskiness by looking at the sta...
by willthrill81
Sun Dec 09, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International underperformance - how to break it down
Replies: 37
Views: 2716

Re: International underperformance - how to break it down

The answer is “extremely”. If you can demonstrate that empirically with a high degree of precision, you'll probably get the Nobel prize. FWIW, a recent recipient of the Nobel prize in economics has serious doubts about how valid the EMH actually is. Arriving at that conclusion requires misinterpret...
by willthrill81
Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International underperformance - how to break it down
Replies: 37
Views: 2716

Re: International underperformance - how to break it down

None of which is exactly a secret ... Why do you assume these concerns aren't factored in to the current market prices? Why do you assume that those factors are factored in? Remember, the EMH is just that: a hypothesis. And Eugene Fama, one of the biggest proponents of the EMH, said just this year ...
by willthrill81
Sat Dec 08, 2018 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?
Replies: 113
Views: 4668

Re: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?

I was referring to the volatility of the two portfolios. 20% lower volatility for not much lower return. And if you’re going to predict the future of bond returns, you should at least keep up with the news: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/11/28/fed-chairman-powell-now-sees-current-interest-rate-level...
by willthrill81
Sat Dec 08, 2018 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The 10 Worst Places To Get Investing Advice"
Replies: 33
Views: 4161

Re: "The 10 Worst Places To Get Investing Advice"

11. An insider at the company that you are planning to invest in. 12. The water cooler. 13. Your neighbors. 14. Anyone who tells you that you need to act right now. 15. The person who comes to your door out of the blue and introduces him/herself to you as a financial advisor who just opened an offi...
by willthrill81
Sat Dec 08, 2018 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?
Replies: 113
Views: 4668

Re: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?

Such investors should be taught that long bonds are a way of having your cake and eating it too: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2018&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&endDate=12%2F08%2F2018&initialAmount=10000&annualOperat...
by willthrill81
Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses
Replies: 123
Views: 16960

Re: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses

When being prepared for losses on the equity side, the 50% loss number is tosses out quite a bit. However, what happens if we see 60 or 70%? Or "just " a 50% loss with pretty high inflation? I've asked that question myself on this forum several times. How many 'buy-and-hold' investors would just si...
by willthrill81
Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International underperformance - how to break it down
Replies: 37
Views: 2716

Re: International underperformance - how to break it down

Setting aside the last 10 years: 1. UK looks to be a disaster for decades because of Brexit. 2. Continental Europe: see above for cascading effects. 3. Japan: I’d love to hear an argument for future optimism. That’s nearly 60% of ex-US. To paraphrase Dirty Harry re:Europe + Japan: Do you feel lucky...
by willthrill81
Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?
Replies: 113
Views: 4668

Re: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?

If a very long horizon investor wants ANY bonds, they should be long term only (maybe treasuries only for re-balancing but lower yield). If not, 100% stocks. You're overlooking that many investors do not have the emotional risk tolerance needed for a 100% stock portfolio, but they don't want the vo...
by willthrill81
Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International underperformance - how to break it down
Replies: 37
Views: 2716

Re: International underperformance - how to break it down

Setting aside the last 10 years: 1. UK looks to be a disaster for decades because of Brexit. 2. Continental Europe: see above for cascading effects. 3. Japan: I’d love to hear an argument for future optimism. That’s nearly 60% of ex-US. To paraphrase Dirty Harry re:Europe + Japan: Do you feel lucky...
by willthrill81
Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?
Replies: 113
Views: 4668

Re: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?

If a very long horizon investor wants ANY bonds, they should be long term only (maybe treasuries only for re-balancing but lower yield). If not, 100% stocks. You're overlooking that many investors do not have the emotional risk tolerance needed for a 100% stock portfolio, but they don't want the vo...
by willthrill81
Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?
Replies: 113
Views: 4668

Re: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?

If a very long horizon investor wants ANY bonds, they should be long term only (maybe treasuries only for re-balancing but lower yield). If not, 100% stocks. You're overlooking that many investors do not have the emotional risk tolerance needed for a 100% stock portfolio, but they don't want the vo...
by willthrill81
Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The 10 Worst Places To Get Investing Advice"
Replies: 33
Views: 4161

Re: "The 10 Worst Places To Get Investing Advice"

goodenyou wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:05 pm
11. An insider at the company that you are planning to invest in.
12. The water cooler.
13. Your neighbors.
14. Anyone who tells you that you need to act right now.
by willthrill81
Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The 10 Worst Places To Get Investing Advice"
Replies: 33
Views: 4161

Re: "The 10 Worst Places To Get Investing Advice"

The problem is that when you know nothing about finances and someone you otherwise respect tells you “what to do” you are likely to consider their advice as good when maybe it is terrible. I am convinced that a person has to educate themselves by doing extensive reading and hopefully they will stum...
by willthrill81
Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 8441
Views: 1662368

Re: This is what stocks do.

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:44 pm
goodenyou wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:11 pm
“Young man, I believe the market is going to fluctuate.
That would stink. :P
"Will stocks go up or down?"

"Yes."
by willthrill81
Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?
Replies: 113
Views: 4668

Re: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?

The key to analyze this would be to look at the period of 1940-s-1970's. That was a period that started with low inflation (thus low coupon rate) and inflation slowly increased. One can NOT look at the most recent period of 1970's to up to recent as it started with HIGH inflation (high interest rat...
by willthrill81
Sat Dec 08, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: portable jump starters
Replies: 41
Views: 2434

Re: portable jump starters

I was skeptical about portable jump starters and got a rather large battery jump starter from costco (it was about the size of regular car battery, even slightly bigger). It worked fine few times but then once failed to start the car even though it was full charged. That might be something like thi...
by willthrill81
Sat Dec 08, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 8441
Views: 1662368

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

"No one should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy or product will be profitable or provide any particular investment return. All investing involves the risk of loss, including the loss of principal." We should not assume a specific rate of return, but...
by willthrill81
Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 11807

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

We can set our own course for the future, but it is a fools errand to try to force a course for someone else. I believe it's immoral as well. There should be opportunities for all people to be educated about personal finance, but once you lead a horse to water..... Free will has consequences, both ...
by willthrill81
Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 11807

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

Most people will disagree, but i know several middle income retirees who are living on social security alone and are just fine. While we have significant assets, when I draw SS at age 70, and DW draws on my record, we should have enough from SS alone to cover our expenses. The exception, of course,...
by willthrill81
Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 11807

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

Most people will disagree, but i know several middle income retirees who are living on social security alone and are just fine. While we have significant assets, when I draw SS at age 70, and DW draws on my record, we should have enough from SS alone to cover our expenses. The exception, of course,...
by willthrill81
Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy I-bonds Jan 1 or May 1?
Replies: 6
Views: 720

Re: Buy I-bonds Jan 1 or May 1?

Why not TIPS? Depending on the term, yields are around 1% right now.
by willthrill81
Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 11807

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

Most people will disagree, but i know several middle income retirees who are living on social security alone and are just fine. They paid their homes off while they were working and lived frugally. They actually have enough money that they are able to donate 10% of their social security check to th...
by willthrill81
Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: J L Collins on Portfolio Size needed for income required
Replies: 7
Views: 1169

Re: J L Collins on Portfolio Size needed for income required

Ridiculous to base your retirement expectations earning a return that is linear. It's not necessarily ridiculous to use a single linear return rate as long as you're using one that's low enough. But it's got to be significantly lower than many think. For instance, you need a 1.22% real rate of retu...
by willthrill81
Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: J L Collins on Portfolio Size needed for income required
Replies: 7
Views: 1169

Re: J L Collins on Portfolio Size needed for income required

There are many problems with this approach. First, it assumes that you never want to spend any of your starting capital. Second, it doesn't take sequence of returns risk into account. Third, it assumes that you can know a priori what your returns will be. I am growing to prefer using the time value ...
by willthrill81
Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 11807

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

47% of households have no retirement accounts of any kind. The median US household had financial assets (checking, savings, CD's, retirement and non-retirement investment accounts) totalling $23,500 in 2016. I don't know what the solution is but the IRA/401-K model to amass wealth adequate to bankr...
by willthrill81
Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: portable jump starters
Replies: 41
Views: 2434

Re: portable jump starters

Each of our vehicles has a battery jump started and compressor. At a minimum the battery packs act as a backup power source to charge our cell phones in case of power outage. :thumbsup IMHO, every vehicle on the road should have a li-ion jump starter and an air compressor. The cost of both is minim...
by willthrill81
Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 8441
Views: 1662368

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:17 pm
The market is roller-coastering again. Insiders must have gotten wind of something. OMG :shock: A limit order I thought never had a chance to excocted just did. This is truly serious.
I might end the year with flat returns. Ho hum. They can't all be 2017.
by willthrill81
Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worst investing year ever....
Replies: 73
Views: 11166

Re: Worst investing year ever....

2017 was more odd due to the lack of volatility. Yeah, I think 2017 was actually the least volatile year in the history of the Dow and S&P 500. 1995 came close, but even that year was slightly more squiggly on the chart. I believe that 2017 was the only calendar year in history where stocks finishe...
by willthrill81
Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 11807

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

Where does that 15% saving figure comes from ? Certainly, it can be correct independently of one's salary and retirement expenses... Nothing wrong with using a percentage of your earnings, irregardless of salary level, especially for a rule of thumb. Someone making $1M and saving 15% spends the sam...
by willthrill81
Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 11807

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

Lack of education didn't create the problem, education isn't going to fix it. I am also mystified about the calls for education. The article mentions that "only" 16% of high school students are required to take a personal finance class in high school. Where are the results of this massive increase ...
by willthrill81
Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are market corrections "healthy"?
Replies: 27
Views: 1971

Re: Why are market corrections "healthy"?

The occasional 10% correction helps to reduce the number of 50% bear markets. This assertion might sound insightful and intuitive but it has nothing to do with reality. Care to explain why? Because I can show why I believe it's true. The long-term value of stocks and the stock market as a whole rev...
by willthrill81
Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt repayment vs Investing – thoughts on psychology
Replies: 10
Views: 894

Re: Debt repayment vs Investing – thoughts on psychology

Research has shown that when someone's net worth is negative, building assets is preferred to paying off debt. But when net worth is positive, paying off debt is preferred. It's very interesting.
by willthrill81
Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 11807

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

willthrill81, << The question then becomes is whether they want to. >> Come on. Are you telling me that folks that live paycheck to paycheck do not know that they are one paycheck away from financial disaster? They know. They just cannot change their spending behavior. Knowing is not doing. KlangFo...
by willthrill81
Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 11807

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

Education is not a panacea to the problem, but aside from forcing people to do what they do not want to do (which we would consider theft in any other context), there isn't one. willthrill81, There is one. People, in general, will do nothing for retirement contribution. If it takes an effort to opt...
by willthrill81
Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Health insurance for FIRE [Financial Independence Retire Early]
Replies: 83
Views: 6257

Re: Health insurance for FIRE [Financial Independence Retire Early]

"Don't be downhearted, I can fit it for you sonny. It won't take too long. It'll just take money."
-Alan Jackson
by willthrill81
Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 11807

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

Anyone earning more than a living wage can save. The question then becomes is whether they want to. Many are indeed making the choice you refer to: spending now and hoping that they will save later. But as I said, most of these people have no clue how much they will need to save in order to produce...
by willthrill81
Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 11807

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

Klang's people can't spend what they don't have. This is why it's important to have a 5% mandatory retirement plan contribution for all workers, from minimum wage on up. Combine this with an employer match of the same amount and you have a decent START at fixing the retirement problem. My own emplo...
by willthrill81
Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 11807

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

Knowing and doing are totally different. People know that they should save money. But, they are not willing to compromise on their current lifestyle in order to save. The typical person does not know that they need a $1 million portfolio to provide $40k of income for 30 years (more or less). They a...
by willthrill81
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?
Replies: 38
Views: 2837

Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Out of pure curiosity, how did you know this? First, that's the history of the stock market. You may not know when it will come back, or how fast it will come back, but it will come back. This stock dip was just another in a long line of stock dips. Second, we were betting on American business. The...
by willthrill81
Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?
Replies: 38
Views: 2837

Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

LaurieAnnaT wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:27 pm
We KNEW that the stock market would come back and that we needed to keep investing.
Out of pure curiosity, how did you know this?
by willthrill81
Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are market corrections "healthy"?
Replies: 27
Views: 1971

Re: Why are market corrections "healthy"?

The occasional 10% correction helps to reduce the number of 50% bear markets. This assertion might sound insightful and intuitive but it has nothing to do with reality. Care to explain why? Because I can show why I believe it's true. The long-term value of stocks and the stock market as a whole rev...
by willthrill81
Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are market corrections "healthy"?
Replies: 27
Views: 1971

Re: Why are market corrections "healthy"?

This is just nonsense talk. I would imagine that the TV talking heads are spewing whatever comes to mind to keep people tuned in so they can sell advertising. I will modestly take the other side. There is a reasonable amount of economic theory that easy money and low volatility invites speculators,...
by willthrill81
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?
Replies: 38
Views: 2837

Re: Where did you think we'd be today, ten years ago?

Soup lines. I’m not kidding, we came this close from going over the edge. Thankfully saner minds prevailed. If the banks had gone, it’s be game over. And yet many (most?) on this forum would regard those who have stockpiled years' worth of food, medical supplies, etc. as being extremists. Had Great...