Search found 12488 matches

by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Switched from Verizon's postpaid plan to prepaid: Saved 38%
Replies: 11
Views: 1293

Re: Switched from Verizon's postpaid plan to prepaid: Saved 38%

beyou wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:44 pm
I just moved my post paid plan to unlimited data and with paperless billing/auto pay discount, paying Verizon 35, 41/line with taxes/fees. Have 4 lines but no indication of any volume discount (no family plan) on the bill.
At least right now, additional lines are $25 each.
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The best portfolios when the going gets rough
Replies: 46
Views: 3234

Re: The best portfolios when the going gets rough

I'm surprised no one has included the "when the going gets tough" Bluto portfolio. 50 % Whiskey 45 % Beer 3 % German Stocks 2 % Hog Futures (still hoping for Bacon futures or some ETF to be available in the future) Bactesting, you'll find that this portfolio really doesn't Flounder. RM Or the HFTH ...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who “owns” the side of my garage?
Replies: 15
Views: 1786

Re: Who “owns” the side of my garage?

I think you own the walls and some of the land next to them. By attaching the fence to your garage, each of your neighbors gained use of a little bit of your land inside their fenced in areas . Not worth feuding over. Depending on how long it's been there, the neighbors might be able to claim owner...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The best portfolios when the going gets rough
Replies: 46
Views: 3234

Re: The best portfolios when the going gets rough

I fail to understand why we need to know Tyler9000's true identity in order to judge his work as an author. Seems to me that those are unrelated. Either his work stands on its own or it doesn't, anything else is just a fallacious appeal to authority. :thumbsup Sadly, appeals to authority, especiall...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Switched from Verizon's postpaid plan to prepaid: Saved 38%
Replies: 11
Views: 1293

Re: Switched from Verizon's postpaid plan to prepaid: Saved 38%

I pay $59 with taxes and fees for a “postpaid” 4 GB plan, including phone line fee. The actual phone is owned outright. If I were to switch to $35 prepaid plan, will my university discount work to bring it down any further? Are there any hidden fees or taxes on these $35 prepaid plans? No, TMK they...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are my 403 and 457 worth the fees?
Replies: 14
Views: 627

Re: Are my 403 and 457 worth the fees?

I would urge you to very kindly speak with HR to see if the situation can be improved. Most products we are offered are annuities, and the fees were much higher. Also, I wasn’t a fan of the funds we were offered. So to me, to be able to choose Vanguard funds seems like a huge victory. I’m single, s...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need advise on cash heavy portfolio
Replies: 7
Views: 1526

Re: Need advise on cash heavy portfolio

Given your apparent concern about recessions, you may want to check out the active thread below.

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=290472
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The best portfolios when the going gets rough
Replies: 46
Views: 3234

Re: The best portfolios when the going gets rough

From Tyler's post: The real risk-reducing move is to diversify away from stocks altogether. Despite being a 'stock proponent', I wholeheartedly agree. Contrary to your academic instinct that usually equates risk and return with very little tangible understanding of the uncertainty involved, portfoli...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retiring on Wellesley
Replies: 68
Views: 14732

Re: Retiring on Wellesley

Any updates on this gray fox? With $1 million invested into VWIAX in January, 2007, and 4% withdrawn each year, the portfolio balance at the end of August, 2019, would have been $1,429,396 (inflation-adjusted $1,124,259). The maximum drawdown over the period was -9.79%. If he did it, I'll bet he's ...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are my 403 and 457 worth the fees?
Replies: 14
Views: 627

Re: Are my 403 and 457 worth the fees?

I would urge you to very kindly speak with HR to see if the situation can be improved.
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The best portfolios when the going gets rough
Replies: 46
Views: 3234

Re: The best portfolios when the going gets rough

I fail to understand why we need to know Tyler9000's true identity in order to judge his work as an author. Seems to me that those are unrelated. Either his work stands on its own or it doesn't, anything else is just a fallacious appeal to authority. An author and his or her work are one and the sa...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Switched from Verizon's postpaid plan to prepaid: Saved 38%
Replies: 11
Views: 1293

Re: Switched from Verizon's postpaid plan to prepaid: Saved 38%

For many years, we've been on Verizon's 'unlimited' plan (i.e. unlimited talk and texting), which they refer to internally as a postpaid plan, and have had between 4 GB of monthly data shared between two lines. Including an 18% discount for being a university employee, the total monthly cost, inclu...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Switched from Verizon's postpaid plan to prepaid: Saved 38%
Replies: 11
Views: 1293

Re: Switched from Verizon's postpaid plan to prepaid: Saved 38%

taurabora wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:23 pm
I switched to Xfinity Mobile from Verizon. My bill went from ~$90 for 4 GB to ~ $30 for 3 GB. I’m generally always on Wifi, but even if I went over, it is only $12/GB.
If you select autopay, the price for Verizon's 6 GB prepaid plan (3 GB of which is a 'bonus') is $35 plus tax right now.
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The best portfolios when the going gets rough
Replies: 46
Views: 3234

Re: The best portfolios when the going gets rough

Interesting analysis by Portfolio Charts of the portfolios that have held up best over each stressful period since the 1970s. The top four in every instance were: - Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio - The Golden Butterfly - Dalio's All Weather - Larry Swedroe's Minimize Fat Tails What they all have ...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The best portfolios when the going gets rough
Replies: 46
Views: 3234

Re: The best portfolios when the going gets rough

I fail to understand why we need to know Tyler9000's true identity in order to judge his work as an author. Seems to me that those are unrelated. Either his work stands on its own or it doesn't, anything else is just a fallacious appeal to authority. :thumbsup Sadly, appeals to authority, especiall...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Switched from Verizon's postpaid plan to prepaid: Saved 38%
Replies: 11
Views: 1293

Switched from Verizon's postpaid plan to prepaid: Saved 38%

For many years, we've been on Verizon's 'unlimited' plan (i.e. unlimited talk and texting), which they refer to internally as a postpaid plan, and have had between 4 GB of monthly data shared between two lines. Including an 18% discount for being a university employee, the total monthly cost, includ...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs
Replies: 45
Views: 3960

Re: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs

asset_chaos wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 5:07 pm
Is Vanguard's patent up?
Not until 2023.
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do You Evaluate Ability and Willingness to Take Risks Associated with Factor Investing
Replies: 46
Views: 1347

Re: How do You Evaluate Ability and Willingness to Take Risks Associated with Factor Investing

With all due respect to Taylor, John Bogle was one of the early providers of factor funds. The Value Index and Growth Index funds as well as the Small Value Index and Small Growth Index funds have been around for a long time. Also, Vanguard offers factor based ETFs: Low Volatility, Value, Momentum,...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is real estate dead as a diversifier?
Replies: 47
Views: 4029

Re: is real estate dead as a diversifier?

If you don't mind me asking, doesn't the market index funds, US and ex-US already have REITS included? IIRC, only about 3% of TSM is in REITs, which certainly isn't enough to 'move the needle'. There has been no statistically significant difference between TSM and large-caps. If so that would mean ...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% Withdrawal Rate Recommended by US News Columnist
Replies: 111
Views: 9101

Re: 5% Withdrawal Rate Recommended by US News Columnist

7% fixed seems like it would allow more spending earlier in retirement and less later in real dollars. This seems ideal since you can do more earlier on. 1 mil would let you spend 70k first year and 91.3% of inflated adjusted amount after 22 years according to last poster. Seems more reasonable tha...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Collectible sale and taxes
Replies: 4
Views: 302

Re: Collectible sale and taxes

From the Wiki:
Capital gains on collectibles and small business stock are taxed at the normal tax rate but a maximum of 28%.
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Capital ... stribution
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds falling when fed is expected to cut rates?
Replies: 24
Views: 2756

Re: Why are bonds falling when fed is expected to cut rates?

I find it interesting that many believe markets to be 'efficient' (i.e. quickly incorporating all available information) when we occasionally (often?) see markets moving in seemingly irrational ways in the apparent absence of information . You claiming institutional investors which comprise the gre...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 264
Views: 15825

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

I hope someone sees the irony of suggesting that only long term investors should buy long term treasuries, since it makes mores sense for them to invest as little in bonds as possible; whereas, it is the people who have a shorter horizon who should be investing more into bonds in order to diversify...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 264
Views: 15825

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Yes, when there is no Great Depression or Great Recession we all can sell bonds and buy more equities. I will rebalance regardless of conditions, per my IPS. Good luck. You can say that when you have done that in real life. In fact it may even be foolish to throw money into stocks from your safe bo...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 264
Views: 15825

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Did you live through 2008 as an investor? Then you will know that people had real existential issues, some of which I listed above. I had a steady job and an income which allowed me to continue buying equities through regular new contributions, however I didn't consider buying more from whatever li...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question for Taylor
Replies: 4
Views: 1011

Re: Question for Taylor

It would be better to send Taylor a private message (i.e. PM).
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Have You Planned for Sequence of Return Risk (SOR)?
Replies: 166
Views: 9006

Re: How Have You Planned for Sequence of Return Risk (SOR)?

I expect to retire within 5 years. But prep for loss of job anytime. Our current AA are: Stocks/Bonds/Cash=28/18/54 Cash alone would last us till 67 SS very comfortably including travels. SS would cover our basic needs and hopefully the stocks and bonds would help to contribute to our discretionary...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% Withdrawal Rate Recommended by US News Columnist
Replies: 111
Views: 9101

Re: 5% Withdrawal Rate Recommended by US News Columnist

With withdrawing a FIXED percentage of whatever the portfolio's balance is each year, you eliminate SRR since there is no subtraction. As long as the withdrawal percentage is not greater than the expected long-term average return, the size of your portfolio does not shrink in the long run though th...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Collectible sale and taxes
Replies: 4
Views: 302

Re: Collectible sale and taxes

The cap on the collectibles tax is 28%. If your marginal rate is lower than 28%, that's the rate you will actually pay.
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Have You Planned for Sequence of Return Risk (SOR)?
Replies: 166
Views: 9006

Re: How Have You Planned for Sequence of Return Risk (SOR)?

Randomguy, Thanks for the analysis. I think rebalancing is key for managing sequence of returns in either direction. During good times such as years greater than 4% returns, one should sell equities to buy bonds. During bad times, one should sell stocks to buy equities which psychologically has to ...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 264
Views: 15825

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Here's the thing about long term TIPS. According to Vanguard, the correlation of long TIPs with CPI inflation has been -0.05 based on monthly returns; i.e., a long term TIPS funds offers nada inflation protection, at least over the short to intermediate term. How come? Well, the returns from long T...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is real estate dead as a diversifier?
Replies: 47
Views: 4029

Re: is real estate dead as a diversifier?

...Assuming you mean physical real estate rather than REITs, doubly no. I have lots of physical real estate and consider it a good diversifier. I do not like REITs. My understanding is that rental properties as a whole did well throughout the GFC, especially those on the lower end of the price spec...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 264
Views: 15825

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

That being said, I've said often that long-term TIPS seem like a no-brainer to me over long-term nominal bonds. Their insurance protection is arguably free right now with a current break-even inflation rate of 1.63% on 30 year TIPS . For investors within about 15 years of retirement, I agree. For y...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% Withdrawal Rate Recommended by US News Columnist
Replies: 111
Views: 9101

Re: 5% Withdrawal Rate Recommended by US News Columnist

The way I read it, the author says " withdrawing 5% each year " which implies something different than the traditional SWR methodology that sets a percentage at the first year, but is the prior years fixed amount + inflation in future years. Withdrawing a percentage of whatever the portfolio's bala...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 264
Views: 15825

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

That being said, I've said often that long-term TIPS seem like a no-brainer to me over long-term nominal bonds. Their insurance protection is arguably free right now with a current break-even inflation rate of 1.63% on 30 year TIPS . For investors within about 15 years of retirement, I agree. For y...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% Withdrawal Rate Recommended by US News Columnist
Replies: 111
Views: 9101

Re: 5% Withdrawal Rate Recommended by US News Columnist

The way I read it, the author says " withdrawing 5% each year " which implies something different than the traditional SWR methodology that sets a percentage at the first year, but is the prior years fixed amount + inflation in future years. Withdrawing a percentage of whatever the portfolio's bala...
by willthrill81
Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Retirement Risk Solutions"
Replies: 34
Views: 2098

Re: "Retirement Risk Solutions"

I don't know of many people for whom liquidity risk has been a real problem, for instance, although it can and does happen. Really? I know more than a few people (and have heard of a lot more) who back before the Great Recession maintained a minimal EF (if one at all), and had almost all their net ...
by willthrill81
Fri Sep 13, 2019 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% Withdrawal Rate Recommended by US News Columnist
Replies: 111
Views: 9101

Re: 5% Withdrawal Rate Recommended by US News Columnist

As to deciding how much and when to withdraw, eventually, the RMD’s take quite a bit of decision-making power out of our hands. And RMD’s remind us that the government would love for us to “live it up” because that’s more tax revenue sooner for the IRS. On some level, why should we care about payin...
by willthrill81
Fri Sep 13, 2019 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 264
Views: 15825

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Here's what keeps me awake with my significant allocation to long treasuries. Too many on the same side of the trade, and when I'm there too, I know it's probably the wrong side. Harnett argues, however that the belief in the bond bubble is misguided and will spell trouble. He offers what he descri...
by willthrill81
Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% Withdrawal Rate Recommended by US News Columnist
Replies: 111
Views: 9101

Re: 5% Withdrawal Rate Recommended by US News Columnist

michaeljc70 wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:48 pm
Thanks. I haven't used that calculator before. How did you get it to put a 40k floor? I only see a place for % reduction in the "Withdrawal Limit" column.
By putting a -20% limit on the withdrawal limit (i.e. 5% - 20% = 4%).
by willthrill81
Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds falling when fed is expected to cut rates?
Replies: 24
Views: 2756

Re: Why are bonds falling when fed is expected to cut rates?

I find it interesting that many believe markets to be 'efficient' (i.e. quickly incorporating all available information) when we occasionally (often?) see markets moving in seemingly irrational ways in the apparent absence of information . You claiming institutional investors which comprise the gre...
by willthrill81
Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds falling when fed is expected to cut rates?
Replies: 24
Views: 2756

Re: Why are bonds falling when fed is expected to cut rates?

I find it interesting that many believe markets to be 'efficient' (i.e. quickly incorporating all available information) when we occasionally (often?) see markets moving in seemingly irrational ways in the apparent absence of information. Perhaps the best example of this was the stock market crash i...
by willthrill81
Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do You Evaluate Ability and Willingness to Take Risks Associated with Factor Investing
Replies: 46
Views: 1347

Re: How do You Evaluate Ability and Willingness to Take Risks Associated with Factor Investing

This problem is often talked about as if it only impacts factor tilters. In reality, it impacts everyone. That's why it's important for everyone to stick with their strategy , whatever that strategy may be*. *Assuming of course that it's at least halfway reasonable. Sticking with a strategy of all ...
by willthrill81
Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% Withdrawal Rate Recommended by US News Columnist
Replies: 111
Views: 9101

Re: 5% Withdrawal Rate Recommended by US News Columnist

Before we get into too much of an uproar, I suggest everyone who doubts the 5% withdrawal number should go back and actually read the Trinity Study update. Try this link: https://www.onefpa.org/journal/Pages/Portfolio%20Success%20Rates%20Where%20to%20Draw%20the%20Line.aspx . Try reading the black w...
by willthrill81
Fri Sep 13, 2019 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Retirement Risk Solutions"
Replies: 34
Views: 2098

Re: "Retirement Risk Solutions"

abw wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:34 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:13 pm
Nothing is glaringly missing from my view.
We've been looking for something like a risk "playbook". Maybe we've found it!
I'd say that this probably qualifies.
by willthrill81
Fri Sep 13, 2019 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do You Evaluate Ability and Willingness to Take Risks Associated with Factor Investing
Replies: 46
Views: 1347

Re: How do You Evaluate Ability and Willingness to Take Risks Associated with Factor Investing

All this talk of factor investing and being prepared to possible long periods of underperformance reminds me of a famous quote: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." Except that statement doesn't apply here at all. The underperformance I referred to earlier was stil...
by willthrill81
Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Retirement Risk Solutions"
Replies: 34
Views: 2098

Re: "Retirement Risk Solutions"

abw wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:09 pm
I can't see any glaring omissions. How about y'all?
Nothing is glaringly missing from my view.
by willthrill81
Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do You Evaluate Ability and Willingness to Take Risks Associated with Factor Investing
Replies: 46
Views: 1347

Re: How do You Evaluate Ability and Willingness to Take Risks Associated with Factor Investing

But to be honest I suspect the most important thing that a potential multi-factor investor needs to be aware of about their utility function is how sensitive they are to things like confirmation bias, regret, and/or groupthink. Because constructing a portfolio that looks different from the market i...
by willthrill81
Fri Sep 13, 2019 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do You Evaluate Ability and Willingness to Take Risks Associated with Factor Investing
Replies: 46
Views: 1347

Re: How do You Evaluate Ability and Willingness to Take Risks Associated with Factor Investing

To me the biggest risk is the loss of purchasing power of the US Dollar over time. Portfolio volatility is considered but to me is a secondary priority to inflation risk. To me, inflation is public enemy number one. I certainly agree that inflation is a big risk, but if it's the biggest risk, then ...
by willthrill81
Fri Sep 13, 2019 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do You Evaluate Ability and Willingness to Take Risks Associated with Factor Investing
Replies: 46
Views: 1347

Re: How do You Evaluate Ability and Willingness to Take Risks Associated with Factor Investing

But to be honest I suspect the most important thing that a potential multi-factor investor needs to be aware of about their utility function is how sensitive they are to things like confirmation bias, regret, and/or groupthink. Because constructing a portfolio that looks different from the market i...