Search found 18259 matches

by willthrill81
Mon May 25, 2020 10:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage rates headed lower?
Replies: 7
Views: 994

Re: Mortgage rates headed lower?

Honestly, I'm more than a bit befuddled as to why mortgage rates aren't lower than they are. Initially, I heard that lenders were so busy doing refinances that they had no need to lower their rates further, but I didn't know that the mortgage space was so tight that virtually no lenders would push t...
by willthrill81
Mon May 25, 2020 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the US become like Japan?
Replies: 57
Views: 4032

Re: Will the US become like Japan?

Will the developed world become like Japan? No one can predict the future, but the same global disinflationary and slow growth trends that caught up with Japan in the 1990s are still at work today in the economies of Europe and the U.S. — and these long-term secular trends aren't likely to reverse ...
by willthrill81
Mon May 25, 2020 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer to peer lending in this day and age
Replies: 45
Views: 2474

Re: Peer to peer lending in this day and age

One more occasion when I'm glad I've totally ignored all of Larry's "expert advice." 8-) I appreciate a lot of Larry's work, but on several occasions, it seems as though he's succumbed to performance chasing. Curious why you say performance chasing. Iirc in the last portfolio of Reducing the risk o...
by willthrill81
Mon May 25, 2020 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer to peer lending in this day and age
Replies: 45
Views: 2474

Re: Peer to peer lending in this day and age

Freefun wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 12:45 pm
The only P2P I do is via Kiva. I don’t care about my return - or if I even lose all the money I’ve lent.
In that case, I have a bridge that you might be interested in buying! :twisted:
by willthrill81
Mon May 25, 2020 3:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Approaching 40, worried about financial future
Replies: 107
Views: 9851

Re: Approaching 40, worried about financial future

With a starting balance of $111k and annual contributions totaling $7,220, a 3.5% real return over 27 years would result in $597k in today's dollars. You're adjusting for inflation twice by using a 3.5% real return but then reducing the final balance based on 2% annualized inflation, effectively re...
by willthrill81
Mon May 25, 2020 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Approaching 40, worried about financial future
Replies: 107
Views: 9851

Re: Approaching 40, worried about financial future

Well, the SS calculator here https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/quickcalc/ gives $38k using his age/income and a retirement age of 70. So that is 90% more than what you used. Yes, agreed - that is what I figured as well. But what about his wife and the couples SS total? Wife doesn't work and due to the natur...
by willthrill81
Mon May 25, 2020 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Approaching 40, worried about financial future
Replies: 107
Views: 9851

Re: Approaching 40, worried about financial future

In general, it makes a lot more sense to use today's dollars rather than inflated dollars to do financial planning. It makes things much easier. That's one of the reasons that we focus on real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) returns rather than nominal returns. If he continues to save at current savings ...
by willthrill81
Mon May 25, 2020 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone screwed up timing the market?
Replies: 20
Views: 1450

Re: Anyone screwed up timing the market?

I stayed in but didn't rebalance. I should have done so but I don't like making big trades when things are so volatile. Never had a chance for the market to find a bottom. Missed opportunity for sure but I am OK with it. One thing I have been good at as an investor is never, ever sell when stocks a...
by willthrill81
Mon May 25, 2020 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Approaching 40, worried about financial future
Replies: 107
Views: 9851

Re: Approaching 40, worried about financial future

In general, it makes a lot more sense to use today's dollars rather than inflated dollars to do financial planning. It makes things much easier. That's one of the reasons that we focus on real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) returns rather than nominal returns. If he continues to save at current savings ...
by willthrill81
Mon May 25, 2020 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the US become like Japan?
Replies: 57
Views: 4032

Re: Will the US become like Japan?

If a global financial crisis of that magnitude wasn't enough to cause CAPE to revert to its historic mean, I don't really know what would, short of an existential threat to the whole system. So yes, I'd say that goes too far. What about, to the surprise of many, inflation kicks in and we enter a pr...
by willthrill81
Mon May 25, 2020 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the US become like Japan?
Replies: 57
Views: 4032

Re: Will the US become like Japan?

If a person bought at today's levels and the cape dropped to 16.71 and stayed there, they'd still get a 8.7% return? That surprises me. (I don't follow your math because, er, I'm not so bright, I guess.) If stocks would return 10% if CAPE remained the same, then the impact of CAPE slowly dropping t...
by willthrill81
Mon May 25, 2020 9:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Approaching 40, worried about financial future
Replies: 107
Views: 9851

Re: Approaching 40, worried about financial future

As a side note my mother always said she stayed home because of her kids when asked. Years after the kids had all moved out I asked her why she didn't work and she said that they would pay too much in taxes :oops: I get your point, but all of the added expenses, not just taxes, that come with both ...
by willthrill81
Mon May 25, 2020 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the US become like Japan?
Replies: 57
Views: 4032

Re: Will the US become like Japan?

22twain wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 9:01 am
Stef wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 12:49 am
Are there other examples of countries with zero stock returns over long periods of time?
Russia after 1917? :twisted:

(until, uh... 1995?)
China after 1949 (approximately) is another.
by willthrill81
Mon May 25, 2020 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the US become like Japan?
Replies: 57
Views: 4032

Re: Will the US become like Japan?

With interest rates set to stay near zero for the foreseeable future, the Fed instituting massive monetary easing for Treasuries and mortgage backed securities, entire industries being bailed out with government cash (i.e. airlines), and consumer confidence likely not to rebound any time soon due t...
by willthrill81
Mon May 25, 2020 8:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Approaching 40, worried about financial future
Replies: 107
Views: 9851

Re: Approaching 40, worried about financial future

I am really liking this idea of increasing gradually per year. It's not new but I think behaviorally, it will be a great solution. I am immediately increasing it to 10% gross then 1% pa in the coming years. You can go a lot faster than 1% annually if you're motivated. I'd say to increase it by at l...
by willthrill81
Mon May 25, 2020 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer to peer lending in this day and age
Replies: 45
Views: 2474

Re: Peer to peer lending in this day and age

...I know that Larry Swedroe recommended P2P investments... He didn't recommend direct individual investments in peer-to-peer lending. As a part of a portfolio, he recommended a combination of one mutual fund and three interval funds--QSPRX, AVRPX, SRRIX, and LENDX--in equal amounts. The relative c...
by willthrill81
Sun May 24, 2020 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the US become like Japan?
Replies: 57
Views: 4032

Re: Will the US become like Japan?

Even before the virus crisis, the problem of Japan was essentially an economy that, in the face of massive and sustained monetary stimulus, was still growing below potential — which means there was not enough demand. No matter how much credit a central bank provides, if no one comes to borrow, it d...
by willthrill81
Sun May 24, 2020 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the US become like Japan?
Replies: 57
Views: 4032

Re: Will the US become like Japan?

It's possible. Even before the virus, when the economy was running well, we were generating record fiscal deficits. Now, of course, that looks like child's play compared to the current deficits. Japan is also carrying a heavy debt load. IMO the economy will be slow for a long time following this ep...
by willthrill81
Sun May 24, 2020 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the US become like Japan?
Replies: 57
Views: 4032

Re: Will the US become like Japan?

With interest rates set to stay near zero for the foreseeable future, the Fed instituting massive monetary easing for Treasuries and mortgage backed securities, entire industries being bailed out with government cash (i.e. airlines), and consumer confidence likely not to rebound any time soon due t...
by willthrill81
Sun May 24, 2020 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflationary effects pending?
Replies: 33
Views: 2633

Re: Inflationary effects pending?

Gigantic budget deficits combined with creating money out of thin air will have an inflationary effect. That's certainly what traditional economic thought suggests. However, the national debt and the money supply have both increased by a factor of 4 or more (nominal) since the year 2000, yet inflat...
by willthrill81
Sun May 24, 2020 9:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Approaching 40, worried about financial future
Replies: 107
Views: 9851

Re: Approaching 40, worried about financial future

You can downsize house (why does someone need a $350k house?) I agree with almost all of your post, but this point depends substantially on the OP's location. We live in a MCOL area, but the market price for our five year old, 1,200 sq. ft. 3/2 isn't much below $350k. We could get a much older home...
by willthrill81
Sun May 24, 2020 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Approaching 40, worried about financial future
Replies: 107
Views: 9851

Re: Approaching 40, worried about financial future

I am about to turn 40 in a year or so. Recently I have become ever more worried about my/our future. I earn about $83,000. My retirement accounts are about $111,000. I am for 67/33 stock and bond approach. We are a family of 5 (3 kids). My partner does not work. I currently save about 8.7% of gross...
by willthrill81
Sun May 24, 2020 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.
Replies: 83
Views: 3489

Re: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.

You mean over-leveraged? That's part of it, yes. I think Taleb may have been trying to be diplomatic. It’s not efficiency. It’s over-leverage caused by greed. Tell me, which CEO implements “efficiency” in their personal life? Mark Hurd who was known for implementing efficiency at HP had a million+ ...
by willthrill81
Sun May 24, 2020 5:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 985
Views: 102150

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

With coronavirus, more and more people are late with rental payments and landlords will have a hard time collecting and evicting. Imagine being a landlord in nyc, the tenants have more rights than the landlord. It takes over a year or two to evict and good luck getting any payments. Amazingly thoug...
by willthrill81
Sun May 24, 2020 5:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 985
Views: 102150

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Being a landlord is an active business, and needs to be treated like one. For folks that don’t want to run a business, they are better off in REITs if they want a real estate tilt. Bingo. Many seem to treat rental real estate almost like an apples-to-apples comparison to owning stocks, maybe apples...
by willthrill81
Sun May 24, 2020 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.
Replies: 83
Views: 3489

Re: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.

The recent downturn has made it clear that many consumers, small businesses, and even large corporations were set up to be efficient and not resilient. You mean over-leveraged? That's part of it, yes. I think Taleb may have been trying to be diplomatic. It’s not efficiency. It’s over-leverage cause...
by willthrill81
Sun May 24, 2020 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer to peer lending in this day and age
Replies: 45
Views: 2474

Re: Peer to peer lending in this day and age

...I know that Larry Swedroe recommended P2P investments... He didn't recommend direct individual investments in peer-to-peer lending. As a part of a portfolio, he recommended a combination of one mutual fund and three interval funds--QSPRX, AVRPX, SRRIX, and LENDX--in equal amounts. The relative c...
by willthrill81
Sun May 24, 2020 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer to peer lending in this day and age
Replies: 45
Views: 2474

Re: Peer to peer lending in this day and age

Random Walker wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 8:10 am
I’ve been invested in LENDX, and it has performed well.
Would you mind elaborating on this? All of the data I'm looking at for LENDX shows that it's lost money since its inception in 2016, though I don't think that the data I'm looking at includes dividends that may have been paid.
by willthrill81
Sun May 24, 2020 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer to peer lending in this day and age
Replies: 45
Views: 2474

Re: Peer to peer lending in this day and age

I wrote the post below back in Feb., 2019, and have since completely exited the P2P lending space. I would advise you to steer clear of P2P lending at this point. I opened a small account with Lending Club in 2013. I used Nickel Steamroller, which was free at the time, to find a good set of selectio...
by willthrill81
Sun May 24, 2020 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Approaching 40, worried about financial future
Replies: 107
Views: 9851

Re: Approaching 40, worried about financial future

I think he will get more than $20k SS at age 70. Can you explain this a little further? Well, the SS calculator here https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/quickcalc/ gives $38k using his age/income and a retirement age of 70. So that is 90% more than what you used. Yes, agreed - that is what I figured as well. ...
by willthrill81
Sun May 24, 2020 2:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Approaching 40, worried about financial future
Replies: 107
Views: 9851

Re: Approaching 40, worried about financial future

In general, it makes a lot more sense to use today's dollars rather than inflated dollars to do financial planning. It makes things much easier. That's one of the reasons that we focus on real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) returns rather than nominal returns.
by willthrill81
Sun May 24, 2020 2:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Friendly States
Replies: 421
Views: 30721

Re: Retirement Friendly States

States with no state income taxes: Washington, Nevada, Texas, Wyoming, South Dakota, Florida and Alaska The problem with Texas is the high property taxes. My father (who lives in Texas) once told me, "no one owns a home in Texas.. You're just renting from the government". While this is true everywh...
by willthrill81
Sun May 24, 2020 2:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Friendly States
Replies: 421
Views: 30721

Re: Retirement Friendly States

a_movable_life wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:41 am
I wonder since most Bogleheads are modest spenders if they no sales tax for DE is less of a benefit.
I care more about income taxes, which are typically much more than sales tax. Also, the differences in income taxes from state to state vary much more than do sales taxes.
by willthrill81
Sun May 24, 2020 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Dilemma – Contradicting Historical Data
Replies: 18
Views: 1195

Re: Asset Allocation Dilemma – Contradicting Historical Data

On the basis of historical data, it makes sense for investors to have the highest equity allocation that they can tolerate for nearly all of their time in the accumulation phase. The key phrase there is " that they can tolerate ." Investors tend to overestimate their risk tolerance, and the conseque...
by willthrill81
Sun May 24, 2020 10:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Approaching 40, worried about financial future
Replies: 107
Views: 9851

Re: Approaching 40, worried about financial future

I am about to turn 40 in a year or so. Recently I have become ever more worried about my/our future. I earn about $83,000. My retirement accounts are about $111,000. I am for 67/33 stock and bond approach. We are a family of 5 (3 kids). My partner does not work. I currently save about 8.7% of gross...
by willthrill81
Sun May 24, 2020 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.
Replies: 83
Views: 3489

Re: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.

anoop wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 10:27 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 3:54 pm
The recent downturn has made it clear that many consumers, small businesses, and even large corporations were set up to be efficient and not resilient.
You mean over-leveraged?
That's part of it, yes.
by willthrill81
Sat May 23, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Has anyone ever used their Emergency Fund?
Replies: 82
Views: 6082

Re: Has anyone ever used their Emergency Fund?

We have never used our emergency fund. We save every month for non-monthly and irregular expenses , and that basically eliminated our 'financial emergencies' and greatly smoothed out our cash flows. TMK, this is very similar to what the YNAB software does. A job loss is about the only realistic even...
by willthrill81
Sat May 23, 2020 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 300
Views: 20488

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

You could refinance your mortgage to a lower rate. There are 30 year mortgages under 3% with $0 closing costs right now. I am curious how that works for someone with strong assets but limited income. It could complicate things substantially. For that reason, and only that reason, I would keep the m...
by willthrill81
Fri May 22, 2020 9:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College in fall
Replies: 279
Views: 27870

Re: College in fall

In my opinion an undergraduate degree is primarily valuable as a signal to future employers/society and as a socialization/networking/country club period. I will be interested to see how the COVID crisis affects this market. I could see how a future shift toward online classes could lessen the "pre...
by willthrill81
Fri May 22, 2020 6:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 300
Views: 20488

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

Folks, So, it happened. I will be laid off by the end of June. The basic financial stuff: A) 3 months severance pay B) 1 year subsidized medical insurance. C) 1 year COBRA D) 110K to 120K of the Emergency Fund E) 1.35 to 1.4 million 60/40 portfolio F) Late 50+ years old. G) Annual expense of about ...
by willthrill81
Fri May 22, 2020 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.
Replies: 83
Views: 3489

Re: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.

rbaldini wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 5:05 pm
Also... is "resiliency" a real word? What does "resiliency" gives us that "resilience" does not?
Resiliency: an ability to recover from or adjust easily to adversity or change
by willthrill81
Fri May 22, 2020 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.
Replies: 83
Views: 3489

Re: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.

While this is a great start, I believe looking at just one's portfolio in isolation is a mistake. One should also consider other intangibles such as human capital, home ownership, pensions/social security, social capital, etc. On the flip side one should also consider additional risks such as one's...
by willthrill81
Fri May 22, 2020 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.
Replies: 83
Views: 3489

Re: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.

At the base, this is the common difference in perspective between different people. If I have a large ability and no need to take risk, it's all up to my willingness. Some think that if they don't need to, why take risk? Others think that if they can afford to, why not take it? I doubt either side ...
by willthrill81
Fri May 22, 2020 10:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can retirement be this simple?
Replies: 31
Views: 4257

Re: Can retirement be this simple?

4% held up (past) for a 30 year retirement. We are in a low interest rate environment. 3.5% is typically considered as a safer withdrawal rate for early retirement. The OP seems to be planning on withdrawing 4.25% of the portfolio balance each year (i.e. totally flexible). That's on the opposite en...
by willthrill81
Thu May 21, 2020 10:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage: home town bank with slightly higher rate vs large bank with lower rate?
Replies: 7
Views: 797

Re: Mortgage: home town bank with slightly higher rate vs large bank with lower rate?

I'm not loyal to any bank. They certainly are not loyal to me. I will take the deal that is best for me at the time. They might even sell the loan right after closing to take profits, rather than keep the loan on their balance sheet. :thumbsup Ditto that. I don't know why you would care who auto-dr...
by willthrill81
Thu May 21, 2020 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.
Replies: 83
Views: 3489

Re: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.

I do have thoughts about these questions, but I don't believe that there is a single answer. As you note, much of it is subjective. Traditional Boglehead thought is probably that the answer to #2 is yes. But I think that certain strategies can be both efficient and resilient. I sometimes think abou...
by willthrill81
Thu May 21, 2020 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.
Replies: 83
Views: 3489

Re: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.

Absolutely. If you have enough wealth, you can afford to take on more risk than someone who just barely has 'enough'. willthrill81, But, the willingness and need to take risk goes down. Don't lose the money matters more than anything else. KlangFool Not everyone holds to the notion that an investor...
by willthrill81
Thu May 21, 2020 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.
Replies: 83
Views: 3489

Re: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.

Absolutely. If you have enough wealth, you can afford to take on more risk than someone who just barely has 'enough'. willthrill81, But, the willingness and need to take risk goes down. Don't lose the money matters more than anything else. KlangFool Not everyone holds to the notion that an investor...
by willthrill81
Thu May 21, 2020 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5588
Views: 479394

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Unemployment numbers approaching Great Depression numbers and S&P at 3000 :beer I learned last week from David Stein's Money for the Rest of Us podcast that S&P 500 firms only employ 17% of the U.S. workforce. That means that the entire publicly traded stock market (i.e. total stock market) covers ...
by willthrill81
Thu May 21, 2020 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5588
Views: 479394

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Unemployment numbers approaching Great Depression numbers and S&P at 3000 :beer I learned last week from David Stein's Money for the Rest of Us podcast that S&P 500 firms only employ 17% of the U.S. workforce. That means that the entire publicly traded stock market (i.e. total stock market) covers ...