Search found 5806 matches

by willthrill81
Mon Oct 22, 2018 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investing versus debt pay-off?"
Replies: 15
Views: 612

Re: "Investing versus debt pay-off?"

I’ve found paying off the mortgage as soon as possible to be a great move. A big side effect for me is that I have found that it helps build the fortitude to stick to a more aggressive asset allocation. I agree. I think of paying down debt as the equivalent of investing in a bond fund. If the inter...
by willthrill81
Mon Oct 22, 2018 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investing versus debt pay-off?"
Replies: 15
Views: 612

Re: "Investing versus debt pay-off?"

This is the one area of this website where I just don't understand the logic of the consensus opinion. To me, low-fixed-rate, unsecured debt is a tremendous opportunity to be taken advantage of--not a noose around your neck. Assume one has a student loan with a fixed interest rate for the next few ...
by willthrill81
Mon Oct 22, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investing versus debt pay-off?"
Replies: 15
Views: 612

Re: "Investing versus debt pay-off?"

Why are people lamenting over not being able to get low interest rates for investing? Interactive Brokers current rate for a margin loan with 300K is 3.34%, and 3.04% if you have 1.5M. Have at it and amp up that portfolio! Joking aside, isn't it a good thing that the consensus is to not invest with...
by willthrill81
Mon Oct 22, 2018 5:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lost Power for 24 hours - what food to toss?
Replies: 48
Views: 3202

Re: Lost Power for 24 hours - what food to toss?

I know there's this chart - https://www.foodsafety.gov/keep/charts/refridg_food.html WOW... Ive never seen this chart before. If true we basically will have to start clearing the table and throwing out thanksgiving dinner halfway though the meal. Not to mention probably half of all the food I have ...
by willthrill81
Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shouldn't Fridays be higher than average due to 401k contributions?
Replies: 19
Views: 773

Re: Shouldn't Fridays be higher than average due to 401k contributions?

Tens of millions of people automatically buy on Fridays. Does that make Fridays higher on average than other days? If not, why? Tens of millions of people automatically buy on days that aren't Friday, also! Who says that Friday is a higher purchase day than others? cheers, jwf Because payday for al...
by willthrill81
Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018
Replies: 85
Views: 12529

Re: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018

I'm very happy with that! My trend following strategy has had me primarily in large cap growth this year. My portfolio has returned 8.2% this year, compared to SPY's 2.5%. Can you expand please? Which one of them are you using? There are two components to the strategy I use: one which signals wheth...
by willthrill81
Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investing versus debt pay-off?"
Replies: 15
Views: 612

Re: "Investing versus debt pay-off?"

It's a very good post, like most that Jim writes. In general, I think that aside from mortgages, it's probably significantly better to pay off debt, assuming that one is taking advantage of 'free money' like a 401k match. The risk-adjusted return from paying off a 6% car loan, for instance, is proba...
by willthrill81
Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 112
Views: 10230

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

As outlined very clearly above - if your investment horizon is shorter than the funds average duration, you have chosen the wrong fund, but if your investment horizon is longer than the funds average duration you should be agnostic to NAV changes over the short term. When NAV falls, you should be b...
by willthrill81
Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 650
Views: 80105

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

[...]I would like to retire at 1.5M [...] I would not like to retire at the top of the market value. Once you reach your number, you might have to wait a while for a bear market, and that may send you below your desired number. So this mean one's desired number is only relevant if attained during a...
by willthrill81
Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 112
Views: 10230

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

As outlined very clearly above - if your investment horizon is shorter than the funds average duration, you have chosen the wrong fund, but if your investment horizon is longer than the funds average duration you should be agnostic to NAV changes over the short term. When NAV falls, you should be b...
by willthrill81
Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement
Replies: 118
Views: 14098

Re: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement

That's why Jim Dahle, the White Coat Investor, advocates for a 'twenties fund'. He says that it's in your twenties when you most often need money the most. Absolutely. That's when money makes the most difference - making it possible to get the right education, settle down, start a family, avoid deb...
by willthrill81
Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: PSA: Don't buy a big house
Replies: 97
Views: 5945

Re: PSA: Don't buy a big house

We have found that vaulted ceilings make a space feel bigger, even if there isn't much square footage. For instance, our 3/2 home is about 1,200 sq. ft., but it has vaulted ceilings in the 'great room' (kitchen, dining, living area) and two of the bedrooms. Almost everyone that views the home estima...
by willthrill81
Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement
Replies: 118
Views: 14098

Re: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement

That's why Jim Dahle, the White Coat Investor, advocates for a 'twenties fund'. He says that it's in your twenties when you most often need money the most. Absolutely. That's when money makes the most difference - making it possible to get the right education, settle down, start a family, avoid deb...
by willthrill81
Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018
Replies: 85
Views: 12529

Re: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018

I'm very happy with that! My trend following strategy has had me primarily in large cap growth this year. My portfolio has returned 8.2% this year, compared to SPY's 2.5%. Can you expand please? Which one of them are you using? There are two components to the strategy I use: one which signals wheth...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 218
Views: 17433

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

...Inflation is not the only variable at work here. The value of the portfolio has also changed due to returns. After having withdrawn 6% of the portfolio's balance every year, a $1 million starting value would now be worth an inflation-adjusted $580k, for instance. Not quite. That might be what Ex...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long will TIAA Trad (3.5%) stay ahead of the fixed income pack?
Replies: 13
Views: 1041

Re: How long will TIAA Trad (3.5%) stay ahead of the fixed income pack?

When I log into TIAA, it says that the current rates are 3.25% for the liquid version of TIAA Trad. and 4.0% for the illiquid version. Where is the 3.5% the OP is referring to? From http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/p/385985/3962798.aspx#3962798: RC 4.25% https://www.tiaa.org/pub...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long will TIAA Trad (3.5%) stay ahead of the fixed income pack?
Replies: 13
Views: 1041

Re: How long will TIAA Trad (3.5%) stay ahead of the fixed income pack?

When I log into TIAA, it says that the current rates are 3.25% for the liquid version of TIAA Trad. and 4.0% for the illiquid version. Where is the 3.5% the OP is referring to?
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 21, 2018 8:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 650
Views: 80105

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

[...]I would like to retire at 1.5M [...] I would not like to retire at the top of the market value. Once you reach your number, you might have to wait a while for a bear market, and that may send you below your desired number. So this mean one's desired number is only relevant if attained during a...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 21, 2018 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 218
Views: 17433

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

I have been retired for 11+ years (73 yo), and the variation on this method I use and really like to to take a monthly withdrawal of 0.5% of the current portfolio value. If you go back and look at the updated Trinity study, a non-inflation adjusted withdrawal of 6% is 30 year safe 93 to 98% of the ...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 21, 2018 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 218
Views: 17433

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

I have been retired for 11+ years (73 yo), and the variation on this method I use and really like to to take a monthly withdrawal of 0.5% of the current portfolio value. If you go back and look at the updated Trinity study, a non-inflation adjusted withdrawal of 6% is 30 year safe 93 to 98% of the ...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 21, 2018 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 218
Views: 17433

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

I have been retired for 11+ years (73 yo), and the variation on this method I use and really like to to take a monthly withdrawal of 0.5% of the current portfolio value. If you go back and look at the updated Trinity study, a non-inflation adjusted withdrawal of 6% is 30 year safe 93 to 98% of the ...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: RatherBeSailing's Law of Home Maintenance Expenses
Replies: 5
Views: 520

Re: RatherBeSailing's Law of Home Maintenance Expenses

The problem with budgeting home maintenance expenses is that they are extremely variable year to year. There are some years where you may only have expenses of a few hundred dollars and other years where you replace a roof, or an HVAC system or do major painting or other renovation where you can sp...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HELOC AS Emergency Fund
Replies: 10
Views: 571

Re: HELOC AS Emergency Fund

Hillview wrote:
Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:54 am
we have one as a sort of back up EF. We have 6-9 months expense in savings account. HELOC is the back up to that. I doubt we would ever use it but it costs us nothing to have it open.
I think that may be the best use of a HELOC: as a backup to an EF, not a substitute.
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces link: The Spectrum of Financial Dependence and Independence
Replies: 20
Views: 1723

Re: Kitces link: The Spectrum of Financial Dependence and Independence

Level 99: you marry a tenured professor and provided you don't screw it up you basically have a lifetime pension. This is a common misconception. Few universities offer pensions beyond that provided to all state employees anymore, and these pensions aren't usually that attractive. Many university s...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces link: The Spectrum of Financial Dependence and Independence
Replies: 20
Views: 1723

Re: Kitces link: The Spectrum of Financial Dependence and Independence

Level 99: you marry a tenured professor and provided you don't screw it up you basically have a lifetime pension. This is a common misconception. Few universities offer pensions beyond that provided to all state employees anymore, and these pensions aren't usually that attractive. Many university s...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: RatherBeSailing's Law of Home Maintenance Expenses
Replies: 5
Views: 520

Re: RatherBeSailing's Law of Home Maintenance Expenses

This isn't a 'law', and you didn't come up with it. :wink: This has been a good estimate, but it can be adjusted depending on the age of the dwelling. We live in a four year old house, and we have spent less than half of 1% annually on maintenance. But I've seen many with very old homes spend closer...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Short trip to Orlando with my parents and children
Replies: 18
Views: 944

Re: Short trip to Orlando with my parents and children

Yes, I grew up about a nine hour drive from WDW and highly recommend it, especially if you have children. Even one day can be a lot of fun. We're headed back down there in late January for our longest trip there yet.
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Globus Journeys - tour group
Replies: 8
Views: 535

Re: Globus Journeys - tour group

We went on a whirlwind trip to Europe back in 2004 with a similar company, Insight, who was perhaps a little higher end than Globus. It was fun, but we would never do it again. Eight countries in eleven days was insane. The pace was ridiculously fast, and in a place like Western Europe, we've learne...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What to do with >$1000 in Amazon credits?
Replies: 44
Views: 3446

Re: What to do with >$1000 in Amazon credits?

You can order nonperishable grocery items.
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why pay cash for a car?
Replies: 250
Views: 32423

Re: Why pay cash for a car?

We thought about paying cash for our last car, which was new, but the interest rate on the loan was more than .5% lower than our mortgage, which we're aggressively paying off. So we took out the auto loan in order to keep piling on the mortgage. We'll pay off the auto loan immediately after the mort...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HELOC AS Emergency Fund
Replies: 10
Views: 571

Re: HELOC AS Emergency Fund

Our wiki has the following on using a line of credit as emergency fund. Some people view various forms of credit (particularly HELOCs[3]) as suitable for emergency funds; others strongly disagree. Credit lines can often be withdrawn with little or no notice, and some emergencies which require drawi...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces link: The Spectrum of Financial Dependence and Independence
Replies: 20
Views: 1723

Re: Kitces link: The Spectrum of Financial Dependence and Independence

Level 15: Independence lets you do and say what you please, unconcerned with other people disagreeing with you , since you don’t rely on the support or opportunities they could offer. Kitces really thinks that financial independence gives you the moral right to be boorish, arrogant, or unkind? And ...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 112
Views: 10230

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

If you can't stand any volatility, then you should invest in CD's or very short bond funds. But you can expect to have lower returns over the long term in exchange. There is a strong correlation between risk and return. For some, lower return is worth the lower volatility. The average duration of T...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long-term Care Insurance
Replies: 102
Views: 4613

Re: Long-term Care Insurance

Using Genworth's LTC insurance calculator , an opposite gender couple, both age 65, buying a policy with $300 per day maximum benefit ($109,500 maximum annual benefit, about the cost of a nursing home in our area) with a five year maximum benefit period would pay $4,553 each per year, $9,106 for th...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 21, 2018 1:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 198
Views: 10416

Re: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

I'm not stuck on 'safe withdrawal rates', but the bottom line is that any withdrawal method that is not based on a percentage of the portfolio's balance (i.e. has some 'fixed' element to it) has some degree of exposure to sequence of returns risk. Dear Willthrill81, It's mathematics: VPW doesn't ha...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement
Replies: 118
Views: 14098

Re: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement

It's extremely valuable to pass some wealth from generation to generation early enough to prevent the next generation from having to go into debt. People should be working to enrich the family, not the banks. If I help my kids to avoid or reduce debt, they can then afford to help their kids to avoi...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 198
Views: 10416

Re: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

longinvest wrote:
Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:35 am
Dear Willthrill81,

It's mathematics: VPW doesn't have sequence of returns risk. VPW never prematurely depletes a portfolio.

Best regards,

longinvest
Until you reach age 100.
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 218
Views: 17433

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

The message in those articles is that a little flexibility isn't going to do much at all for you in a poor sequence of returns. In a typical sensationalist blogging manner, these blog articles base their message on a volatile 80/20 stocks/bonds portfolio, with no accompanying Social Security, pensi...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 198
Views: 10416

Re: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

Dear Willthrill81, We've previously discussed this in depth. So, I'm only writing this post for the benefit of other readers. The SWR method implied in your post is a withdrawal method which lets most of its adopters die as the richest people in the graveyard, while bankrupting most of the rest. It...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: noisy generator
Replies: 44
Views: 2722

Re: noisy generator

This is part of the reason that I would never purchase a whole house standby generator. Other reasons include the fact that they consume a huge amount of fuel, they only work at that location (what if you need power somewhere else?), and the huge price tag... I hope the OP has been instructed on ho...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: noisy generator
Replies: 44
Views: 2722

Re: noisy generator

I suppose the simplest thing to do is to shut it down and start it up as desired, so you can at least have quiet at night for example, if you are willing to have the power off for that duration. The question is, how long can one have the power off if the temp is, say, minus ten degrees. We lived in...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 20, 2018 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 198
Views: 10416

Re: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

Dear Willthrill81, But, fixed-percentage indexed SPIAs, like 3%-indexed SPIAs, exist within a competitive market. They're not as safe as CPI-indexed SPIAs, but they're still much safer than nominal SPIAs! In a 5% inflation world, the nominal SPIA would have lost over 60% of its purchase power after...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 198
Views: 10416

Re: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

But, fixed-percentage indexed SPIAs, like 3%-indexed SPIAs, exist within a competitive market. They're not as safe as CPI-indexed SPIAs, but they're still much safer than nominal SPIAs! In a 5% inflation world, the nominal SPIA would have lost over 60% of its purchase power after 20 years (from age...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Don't pay full price for SiriusXM radio
Replies: 56
Views: 10584

Re: Don't pay full price for SiriusXM radio

I've done the exact same thing for the past 5 years. I'll set a reminder on my calendar, about a week before the subscription is set to auto-renew... I always get them down to $5 a month for the next 6 months. I really don't need it in this day and age of smart-phones w/Spotify, IHeartRadio, podcas...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lost Power for 24 hours - what food to toss?
Replies: 48
Views: 3202

Re: Lost Power for 24 hours - what food to toss?

Pro tip. The cost of a generator is covered after one or two power outages. It is very nice to have a comfortable house, wi-fi, coffee, and good food while your neighbors sit in the dark. I would think a generator big enough to power a fridge, plus the cost of gas and maintenance would be quite a b...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: noisy generator
Replies: 44
Views: 2722

Re: noisy generator

This is part of the reason that I would never purchase a whole house standby generator. Other reasons include the fact that they consume a huge amount of fuel, they only work at that location (what if you need power somewhere else?), and the huge price tag. I am very happy with my small inverter gen...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 20, 2018 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1194
Views: 99258

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I have to chuckle at all this analysis. Total US is out-performing Intl because 12.7% of its assets are in: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), and Facebook. If those 5 continue their run, Total US will outperform Intl ... if they don't, it won't. That doesn't address the U.S.'s outperform...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 20, 2018 4:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long-term Care Insurance
Replies: 102
Views: 4613

Re: Long-term Care Insurance

Either buy the insurance or don't buy the insurance (and withdraw from your IRA as needed when you're in the nursing home0 and offset the income with a medical expense deduction. But don't cash in a $1 million IRA (even if over 4 or 5 years) to put the after-tax proceeds into an income-only trust. ...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 20, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long-term Care Insurance
Replies: 102
Views: 4613

Re: Long-term Care Insurance

Only 15.5% in federal income taxes on a $200K withdrawal from a 401(k)? No way. It would be at least 22%, probably 24% plus state income taxes. Taxable income over $77,401 is taxed at 22%. https://www.doughroller.net/taxes/federal-income-tax-brackets-deductions-and-exemption-limits/ Let me show you...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 20, 2018 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 650
Views: 80105

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

46 next month. I would like to retire at 1.5M. Currently at 1.1+, half in taxable, half in retirement acct. House is paid off, old car paid off. Can remain in medical group plan if I stay at current job 7 more years. I do not know if I want to, but the problem is I do not know how to estimate medic...