Search found 9155 matches

by willthrill81
Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a percentage decline is MORE than that decline OF YOUR GAINS??
Replies: 25
Views: 1580

Re: a percentage decline is MORE than that decline OF YOUR GAINS??

venkman wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:00 pm
Just use the Dave Ramsey SystemTM, where volatility drag doesn't exist, and your CAGR always equals the arithmetic average of your annual gains! :twisted:
And your safe withdrawal rate will be 8% too! :mrgreen:
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 481
Views: 37037

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

You just need to be more skilled enough or more lucky enough than your coworker. If so you will survive, else not. Corporations drill into you that “getting yourself more skilled” will fetch you jobs/ lets you keep jobs. Until they don’t need you or your increased skill any more. Two can play the g...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Annuity Puzzle: Findings from a Recent Survey
Replies: 29
Views: 1704

Re: The Annuity Puzzle: Findings from a Recent Survey

montanagirl wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:06 pm
Do most pensions not have adjustment for inflation?
No, most do not.
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 20, 2019 8:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where do you keep your emergency fund?
Replies: 61
Views: 4974

Re: Where do you keep your emergency fund?

Don’t have an EF now that the taxable account is large enough. Those for whom the primary emergency that would need funding is unemployment and who also have a 457 plan (i.e. penalty-free withdrawals at any age once separated from the employer) may have no need for an EF at all once the 457 plan ha...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Zweig WSJ: You, Dear Investor,Are Patient, Prudent And Calm
Replies: 12
Views: 1804

Re: Jason Zweig WSJ: You, Dear Investor,Are Patient, Prudent And Calm

This confirms my own belief that us individual investors have one advantage over the big boys. We don’t have our results compared to an index by a board of directors quarterly and risk losing jobs if we underperform. Knowing our own goals and timeframes, we can afford to be more patient. :thumbsup ...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where do you keep your emergency fund?
Replies: 61
Views: 4974

Re: Where do you keep your emergency fund?

1/3 in hard cash, 2/3 in Wellesley Income (in a Roth IRA). New to the forum and joined after reading this. 36 year old newbie and just set up a Vanguard account. Never thought about holding some in anything other than cash. Got a lot to learn, but thanks for the post. Makes sense to me to do someth...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 20, 2019 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard kicking butt with Target Date Funds
Replies: 17
Views: 3943

Re: Fund Placement

Bogleheads: Low cost Target Date Funds are usually the best investments for investors who have ALL their portfolio in tax-advantaged accounts (IRAs, 401ks, etc.). Target Date Funds, like other balanced funds, are tax-inefficient. In such cases, it is usually better to use separate funds so that we ...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 20, 2019 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient Markets Indeed
Replies: 21
Views: 1547

Re: Efficient Markets Indeed

If a market is inefficient, that means that there are good opportunities for some people to make speculative gains by taking money away from other people. I'm not so sure that that conclusion is valid. For instance, if the market's pricing was 'random', it wouldn't be efficient, but you couldn't pr...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 20, 2019 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient Markets Indeed
Replies: 21
Views: 1547

Re: Efficient Markets Indeed

Are you willing to tell us your understanding of the term efficient markets ? PJW Was just being sarcastic with the title. But I'd venture to say that the price of a stock going up hundreds of times because it gets confused with a different company doesn't seem very efficient! This example you gave...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 20, 2019 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Annuity Puzzle: Findings from a Recent Survey
Replies: 29
Views: 1704

Re: The Annuity Puzzle: Findings from a Recent Survey

It has been well known for a long time that people tend to not like SPIAs. Kitces explained the issue a couple of years ago via the theory of the retirement hierarchy of needs, which has since received some support in the academic community. Basically, it argues that individuals' need for current in...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 20, 2019 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 481
Views: 37037

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

Here is a real-life cautionary tale about FIRE. A friend FIREd in her mid 40's (shortly before the dot-com bust), took her pension as a lump sum, and set up an SEPP from her roll-over IRA. I'm not privy to her multiple of expenses at the start of her retirement, but I know the mandatory RMDs did a ...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 20, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 481
Views: 37037

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

There is a reasonable difference between 3% and low 3.x percent as x can equal anything between 0 and 5. The only reasonable study I saw that discusses this is Early Retirement Now that recommends 3.5%. And that 3.5% is without any flexibility making it very conservative and 3.0% overly conservativ...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 20, 2019 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 481
Views: 37037

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

You don't have to work during the great depression, you can do something lucrative and decrease your SWR ahead of it. Huh? Do something "lucrative"? In the middle of the biggest economic meltdown in the history of the US? I think you would benefit from reading some history of this period. Yes, beca...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 20, 2019 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a percentage decline is MORE than that decline OF YOUR GAINS??
Replies: 25
Views: 1580

Re: a percentage decline is MORE than that decline OF YOUR GAINS??

I guess what I'm asking is: 1. is this a reason to periodically take gains off the table (to reduce the loss to one's gains)? Not really. Your portfolio doesn't 'know' what proportion of itself is comprised of contributions or gains. 2. even if you experience losses of your gains does this favor lo...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a percentage decline is MORE than that decline OF YOUR GAINS??
Replies: 25
Views: 1580

Re: a percentage decline is MORE than that decline OF YOUR GAINS??

What got me thinking about this was I thought the market has been up 300% since the Great Recession. And I wondered, if the market falls by 50% wouldn't those who were up 300% still be up 150% (half of the total increase?). But then I thought, "Well if I started with $100 and it's now up 300% I'd h...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?
Replies: 117
Views: 7876

Re: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?

Living to 100 is peanuts. We will have much longer lifespans. This will not be the case if life expectancies continue increasing at their current pace. Take a look at the graph below. https://i.imgur.com/G4KSEHz.png?1 From 1850 to 1950, the life expectancy of a 70 year old only increased from about...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 481
Views: 37037

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

You don't have to work during the great depression, you can do something lucrative and decrease your SWR ahead of it. Huh? Do something "lucrative"? In the middle of the biggest economic meltdown in the history of the US? I think you would benefit from reading some history of this period. Just to p...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bogle
Replies: 82
Views: 10011

Re: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bo

Except that the new normal is closer to a 40 year retirement than 30. So more opportunity for bad sequences of returns. The longer the retirement, the more likely a run of high inflation. In the long run, inflation is just as much a threat as sequence of returns. That's why it's important to have t...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bogle
Replies: 82
Views: 10011

Re: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bo

I guess the point is if there's a high likelihood that the next decade is going to be 4% returns or less should you look at alternatives such as real estate etc. or pay off mortgage instead? Also lower returns are fine if you are going to be working for the next 30 years, but what about newly retir...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?
Replies: 117
Views: 7876

Re: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?

Why I Hope to Die at 75 by Ezekiel J. Emanuel (Ezekiel J. Emanuel is an oncologist, a bioethicist, and a vice provost of the University of Pennsylvania. He is the author or editor of 10 books, including Brothers Emanuel and Reinventing American Health Care. ) https://getpocket.com/explore/item/why-...
by willthrill81
Sat Apr 20, 2019 12:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bogle
Replies: 82
Views: 10011

Re: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bo

I guess the point is if there's a high likelihood that the next decade is going to be 4% returns or less should you look at alternatives such as real estate etc. or pay off mortgage instead? Also lower returns are fine if you are going to be working for the next 30 years, but what about newly retir...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?
Replies: 117
Views: 7876

Re: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?

You're doing it wrong if you aren't planning with "preservation of capital" in mind. Down curve year over year should follow inflation, not spending. -TheDDC So retirees should plan as though they will live forever? I believe the term to describe would be closer to "generational wealth". That does ...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?
Replies: 117
Views: 7876

Re: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?

TheDDC wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:56 pm
You're doing it wrong if you aren't planning with "preservation of capital" in mind. Down curve year over year should follow inflation, not spending.

-TheDDC
So retirees should plan as though they will live forever?
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?
Replies: 117
Views: 7876

Re: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?

I'm not aware of any models that allow some sort of "if portfolio drops below by x%" (or some similar trigger), "then reduce spending by y% for z years", or some such. There are a million models. Coding up a new model is pretty straightforward. Here's what yours looks like. If the portfolio drops 1...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 481
Views: 37037

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

I tend to think that the withdrawal rate is pretty age dependent, Why? From the data we have until now there is a very small difference between perpetual and 30y SWRs. Of course there is the question of what sample size can you have with perpetual (or even 30y intervals), but that is a different di...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 481
Views: 37037

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

Those who are able to retire on a 2% withdrawal rate have the option of transitioning to a 4% rate and live large. Those who retire on a 4% withdrawal rate cannot increase it to 8% to achieve the same result. The problem remains that it will take most folks 10 years or longer to go from a 4% WR to ...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can we retire yet? And other related questions...
Replies: 28
Views: 2423

Re: Can we retire yet? And other related questions...

Emergency funds: 19 months of expenses Debt: None, rent at 2300/mo Tax Filing Status: Married Tax Rate: 24% Federal, 6.37% State State of Residence: NJ Age: M62, F58 Desired Asset allocation: 100% stocks / 0% bonds Desired International allocation: 30% of stocks Portfolio: 3.2m (or 3.6m?) Current r...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 481
Views: 37037

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

But I am worried about time. And even if my job was 6h/day and across the street from my house, I would still have an issue with the fact that I am pinned down in the same place and I cannot go where I want. I echo your concern. While I really enjoy my job, I do not believe that I would do it if we...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about selling stocks near all time highs
Replies: 84
Views: 6698

Re: Thinking about selling stocks near all time highs

You should sell. It always works out when you sell at market highs. Unless the market keeps going up. If you have reached your goals and won the game then you, IMO, should start managing your risk and not worry about maximizing gains. If you would have made a few dollars more by staying in wouldn't...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about selling stocks near all time highs
Replies: 84
Views: 6698

Re: Thinking about selling stocks near all time highs

tainted-meat wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:21 pm
You should sell. It always works out when you sell at market highs.
Unless the market keeps going up.
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 481
Views: 37037

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

But if one can reasonably get from 40 times expenses to 50 times expenses in 3 or 4 years, and as a result have a better chance of surviving all but the most catastrophic of situations, isn't that trade off worth it? Maybe not for someone who is 60 years old, but someone who is 50 it might be. And ...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?
Replies: 117
Views: 7876

Re: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?

Living to age 99 is a risk I am willing to take.. :D My plan is to retire at 62, postpone SS to age 67 (possibly 70, if health is good, will see..), and enjoy life as much as I can, as long as I can. Withdraw at 3.75 -4% for 5 years, then reduce it to 2% after SS kicks in. I don't expect to need mu...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?
Replies: 117
Views: 7876

Re: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?

Living to age 99 is a risk I am willing to take.. :D My plan is to retire at 62, postpone SS to age 67 (possibly 70, if health is good, will see..), and enjoy life as much as I can, as long as I can. Withdraw at 3.75 -4% for 5 years, then reduce it to 2% after SS kicks in. I don't expect to need mu...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 481
Views: 37037

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

So, what would you suggest to prepare for such dire circumstances. Your previous thought of working just a few more years seems woefully inadequate for this type of apocalyptic thinking. Maybe one would better off investing in farm land, guns, and ammunition? Perhaps multiple citizenships, farmland...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?
Replies: 117
Views: 7876

Re: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?

Living to 100 is peanuts. We will have much longer lifespans. This will not be the case if life expectancies continue increasing at their current pace. Take a look at the graph below. https://i.imgur.com/G4KSEHz.png?1 From 1850 to 1950, the life expectancy of a 70 year old only increased from about...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about selling stocks near all time highs
Replies: 84
Views: 6698

Re: Thinking about selling stocks near all time highs

I am thinking about selling some stock ETFs after one of the strongest gains in the stock market since christmas 2018. I know that this slope that we're on cannot continue and has never historically continued at this rate, so a correction is inevitable. We're on pace for nearly a 60% return for the...
by willthrill81
Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TIAA Traditional Question - Moving from Liquid to Non-liquid Version
Replies: 4
Views: 380

Re: TIAA Traditional Question - Moving from Liquid to Non-liquid Version

If you're open to sacrificing liquidity, then you may want to consider other options. For instance, you can get a 5 year CD paying 3.5% right now. That being said, moving a portion of your fixed income into the non-liquid version is reasonable. However, if you want to rebalance your asset allocation...
by willthrill81
Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?
Replies: 117
Views: 7876

Re: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?

I personally think a 5% failure rate is too high--too high for a planning number; I personally like 3% failure I disagree. It does not bother me that there is a 5% probability I will be broke when I'm 95, when there is a 40% chance I will be dead when I'm 90. It does not make sense to me to trade t...
by willthrill81
Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does 100% stocks make sense for very high net worth individuals
Replies: 126
Views: 12702

Re: Does 100% stocks make sense for very high net worth individuals

I would have no problem going 100% stocks if one is really high net worth. The issue is more why? Do you really want to give a bunch of money to your kids and think that is going to turn out well? I don't think (nor does anyone else of respect advocate) dropping a bunch of zeroes to your kids and a...
by willthrill81
Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can 401k type retirement plans provide safe retirement income? - Thaler & Milevsky
Replies: 16
Views: 2802

Re: Can 401k type retirement plans provide safe retirement income? - Thaler & Milevsky

- Thaler's "pet idea" is to let people buy more Social Security benefits. During the Q&A, someone asked if this would lead to anti-selection but Thaler waved this off. I do think it's reasonable to assume that those who buy more SS would tend to be healthier and would lead to a degree of anti-selec...
by willthrill81
Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?
Replies: 54
Views: 3729

Re: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?

I don’t. Have been through bear markets and used to sell, thinking we had to do something! Only in hindsight did we realize that was foolish. The last financial crisis we stayed the course and that was very wise. Was it wise or just a bit lucky? What if stock prices around the globe went for a deca...
by willthrill81
Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?
Replies: 54
Views: 3729

Re: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?

What are you proposing is market timing. Bogleheads are generally opposed to it for a variety of reasons. I personally use a specific form of market timing referred to as trend following. But what you are proposing is subjective timing of the market, and history says that it's very unlikely to perf...
by willthrill81
Thu Apr 18, 2019 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?
Replies: 54
Views: 3729

Re: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?

What are you proposing is market timing. Bogleheads are generally opposed to it for a variety of reasons. I personally use a specific form of market timing referred to as trend following. But what you are proposing is subjective timing of the market, and history says that it's very unlikely to perf...
by willthrill81
Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 481
Views: 37037

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

Understood, but in the context of your discussion, you were talking about going from 25x to 40x. That's gross income? I've always seen retirement savings as a multiple of expenses, not income. Then a "modest savings rate" of .5x was mentioned. If the 25x and 40x were expenses, I assumed the .5x was...
by willthrill81
Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 481
Views: 37037

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

Well, a percentage savings rate is more than just for bragging about your frugality. It's closely tied to how long it will you to reach financial independence. I am not getting your assertion here. If you are trying to calculate reaching FI, then what fraction of retirement expense you save each ye...
by willthrill81
Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Factors That Plague Factor Investing
Replies: 44
Views: 2995

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Factors That Plague Factor Investing

NISI wrote: (For the record, though, that wasn't true during 2000-2002, when non-factor-based portfolios like the Vanguard LifeStrategy funds, and like my own, fell--but classic factor-based portfolios like the Bill Schultheis Coffeehouse portfolio--10% each large-cap blend, large-cap value, small-...
by willthrill81
Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do not use Personal Capital
Replies: 76
Views: 9545

Re: Do not use Personal Capital

I guess I just don't understand OP's concern. What about your funds at Fidelity or Vanguard or your 401k plan administrator? I'm sure there are people that can look at your accounts within each company if they felt like it. What about when you go to your physical bank and deposit cash? That person ...
by willthrill81
Thu Apr 18, 2019 2:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 481
Views: 37037

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

When you guys talk about a 50% savings rate, you're talking, in this case, as 50% of expenses, correct? If you earn $100k gross, then a 50% savings rate means that you're saving $50k. Understood, but in the context of your discussion, you were talking about going from 25x to 40x. That's gross incom...
by willthrill81
Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 481
Views: 37037

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

If you earn $100k gross, then a 50% savings rate means that you're saving $50k. There are whole threads on if you should measure your savings rate off gross or net. MMM uses net in his blog posts. Both net and gross suck in different ways. Compare 2 cases 1 million dollar income 400k taxes 100 spen...
by willthrill81
Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 481
Views: 37037

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

It takes about 6 years in most case to go from 25x to 40x with normal returns(6%) and modest savings rate (.5x). If we get poor returns (2%) real then it takes longer. But if we get 2% real, that 4% is going to think about going back to work as they get poorer and poorer every year. And obviously y...