Search found 221 matches

by NibbanaBanana
Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REITS and Swedroe
Replies: 71
Views: 7691

Re: REITS and Swedroe

Larry said it's OK to HOLD REITs, but not to BUY REITs. And I'm saying there is no difference between holding REITs and buying REITs. This isn't a question of all-or-nothing. It's a question of logic. If an investor owns overvalued REITs, why not just sell them, and be in exactly the same position ...
by NibbanaBanana
Thu Mar 08, 2018 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To sell or not to sell
Replies: 39
Views: 2934

Re: To sell or not to sell

Similar situation but was about 25% individual issues. Am retiring shortly and had 0% bonds as of two years ago. From education and painful experience learned the risks of individual issues. Sold off enough individual issues to buy balanced VG mutual funds and some bond funds to bring bond allocatio...
by NibbanaBanana
Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What seems to matter
Replies: 25
Views: 3899

Re: What seems to matter

skor99 wrote:
Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:43 pm
This should also be coupled with the blatant age discrimination prevalent in the job market where one has a higher chance of being laid in their late 40s and 50s than in the 20s or 30s.
Ummmm....... I haven't experienced that myself.
by NibbanaBanana
Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 316
Views: 35618

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

There is nothing inherently wrong with the strategy especially if you are simply taking the dividend yield of the S&P500 or total stock market. The issue comes in when you reach for dividends. I prefer to use a CD ladder that covers at least 10 years of expenses, with the plan to replenish each CD ...
by NibbanaBanana
Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Safe to file taxes now?
Replies: 57
Views: 5143

Re: Safe to file taxes now?

Yes, I received a corrected 1099 from VG one year. I'd wait until the beginning of April. I don't see the point in filing early really. Unless you expect a very big refund maybe.
by NibbanaBanana
Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trade my BMW?
Replies: 45
Views: 2902

Re: Trade my BMW?

Why can't you do maintenance, brakes, etc on a BMW if you can do them on other cars? Just curious. Never looked at a newer BMW closely.
by NibbanaBanana
Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I reduced my exposure to US stocks before the correction.
Replies: 39
Views: 4474

Re: I reduced my exposure to US stocks before the correction.

I did the same thing just a couple weeks ago. I also think that US stocks are overpriced. But that's just my opinion. I try not to act on my opinions because oftentimes, they're wrong. But Vanguard's portfolio tester tool said "Caution: Your portfolio emphasizes growth stocks......." and "Internatio...
by NibbanaBanana
Thu Feb 15, 2018 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's SWR study
Replies: 44
Views: 3916

Re: Morningstar's SWR study

excuse my ramblings, but I've been giving this SWR/retirement problem a LOT of thought over the last few years. 1) at my age/BMI/smoking status etc etc my expected lifespan is ~75 years. I'm 34 now so obviously this number likely will increase as I get older and I have to also plan for my wife howe...
by NibbanaBanana
Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any Creative Ways to Cut the Cable?
Replies: 49
Views: 4854

Re: Any Creative Ways to Cut the Cable?

We only had basic cable but the cost kept creeping up. It finally got up to about $40/mo. That's not a lot but we only watched PBS a few hours a week. So we just cancelled it and got rid of the TV. One of the best things I ever did.
by NibbanaBanana
Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 152
Views: 11420

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

So......... Is it maybe time to shift a higher allocation to total internal stock market index fund? Is anyone else considering putting more money into total INTL than they have US over the last few years? I've been selling US stocks, using that money and new money to buy bonds, balanced mutual fun...
by NibbanaBanana
Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 152
Views: 11420

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

Returns still being good over the last 26 years has to do with expanding P/Es over that period right. If P/Es continue to expand on average returns will continue to be good while that happens (but eventually they likely can't expand anymore). If they stay the same returns will be good but below the...
by NibbanaBanana
Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Day trading for a living/career?
Replies: 95
Views: 7850

Re: Day trading for a living/career?

Stop. Learn to meditate.
by NibbanaBanana
Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does one emotionally keep it together during market swings?
Replies: 111
Views: 9077

Re: How does one emotionally keep it together during market swings?

Become a student of the financial markets. Read the many good books on the history of the financial markets, bubbles, speculation and so forth. This will entirely change your perspective.

Also always remember NibbanaBanana's first rule of investing: "It's easy to be risk tolerant in a rising market."
by NibbanaBanana
Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Jogging in the cold.
Replies: 50
Views: 4014

Re: Jogging in the cold.

Just make sure you breath through your nose. If you breath though your mouth, you can dry out your throat and lungs and possibly have some problems with bronchitis, etc. Breathing through your nose warms and humidifies the air before it gets to your lungs. My friend, who lives in Cold lake Canada, w...
by NibbanaBanana
Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to short TSLA?
Replies: 50
Views: 3064

Re: How to short TSLA?

Vanguard has a tutorial on options on their website. Start here. https://investor.vanguard.com/investing ... on-trading
by NibbanaBanana
Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why GNMAs Shouldn't Be Your Bond Choice
Replies: 70
Views: 5556

Re: Why GNMAs Shouldn't Be Your Bond Choice

It seems like the long-term discussion that we've had on this board about the desirability of MBS has morphed into a view that mortgage bonds, regardless of credit quality, are the absolute worst kind of bond one could ever own and should be viewed in the same category as bitcoin in terms of risk. ...
by NibbanaBanana
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 168
Views: 20646

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Fat-Tailed Contagion wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:16 am
What's the Bottom Call for Bitcoin?
Zero.
by NibbanaBanana
Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retired at 50. Staying 100% in stock Index Funds. Anyone else?
Replies: 153
Views: 15285

Re: Retired at 50. Staying 100% in stock Index Funds. Anyone else?

I started investing in 1993 and was always pretty close to 100% stocks up to a year ago. (Now 90/10) I went to M* and looked at the performance of the Vanguard Wellington fund VWELX, a balanced fund, vs the SNP index fund VFINX from 1993 to present. Well, the grand totals are exactly the same. But t...
by NibbanaBanana
Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: changing from a Vanguard mutual fund account to a Vanguard brokerage account
Replies: 16
Views: 1465

Re: changing from a Vanguard mutual fund account to a Vanguard brokerage account

I did it with two or three accounts last summer. Maybe four, I'd have to check. It took a couple days but wasn't a big deal IIRC.
by NibbanaBanana
Sun Feb 04, 2018 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why GNMAs Shouldn't Be Your Bond Choice
Replies: 70
Views: 5556

Re: Why GNMAs Shouldn't Be Your Bond Choice

Valuethinker wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:45 am

You posed a question, and it's got a least 3 possible answers (which could add to 100%, or one could be 120% one way and the other -20% the other and the third 0%):
Okay. So what are they for Total Bond?
by NibbanaBanana
Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why GNMAs Shouldn't Be Your Bond Choice
Replies: 70
Views: 5556

Re: Why GNMAs Shouldn't Be Your Bond Choice

If there are as many smart cookies and rocket scientists out there pricing bonds as I've heard, then why wouldn't they be able to price in the extra risk? Why does the 32 year chart above look like the GNMA fund compares favorably to total bond over a long period if there's more risk? Zoom in and ob...
by NibbanaBanana
Sat Feb 03, 2018 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ric Edelman: Vanguard, Other Bitcoin Deniers Will Eat Their Words
Replies: 47
Views: 6569

Re: Ric Edelman: Vanguard, Other Bitcoin Deniers Will Eat Their Words

Bitcoin just fell below $8,000 from almost $20,000 mid-December. I can see a lot of bitcoin true believers starting to get nervous and lashing out. A few I know are buying now. They see the crash as the opportunity they missed. I tried to talk them out of it but they won't listen. They all say they...
by NibbanaBanana
Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard opens special offices for $1 million clients
Replies: 115
Views: 28647

Re: Vanguard opens special offices for $1 million clients

One million (Flagship) invested at, say, 15bp ER, is $1500. Or did I make a mistake? Seems to me they're already doing a lot for that $1500/year. Not sure how many more services they could provide for that money.
by NibbanaBanana
Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 226
Views: 28770

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

Sold my holding of MSFT yesterday after a long, 15+ year IIRC, relationship. Regret having to pay those taxes but will be paying off the mortgage and reducing my sequence of return risk entering retirement. Observed that MSFT was a top holding in most of the funds I own anyway.
by NibbanaBanana
Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nobody Knows Nothing - A Chart
Replies: 26
Views: 4562

Re: Nobody Knows Nothing - A chart

9 year annualized look fantastic. But 18 year annualized return on SNP is about 5.6% if I calculated correctly. So what should be the long term expected returns for stocks?

Just goes to show, given any set of data, you can calculate an average. But it has no predictive power whatsoever.
by NibbanaBanana
Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insurance Association Guarantee Limit for Annuities
Replies: 1
Views: 208

Insurance Association Guarantee Limit for Annuities

I have a Vanguard deferred annuity. I contacted them to ask their opinion of purchasing an income annuity for more than the limit covered by the state insurance association. Specifically, whether this would be advisable or not. The representative said they didn't have any advice, opinion, or stateme...
by NibbanaBanana
Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 226
Views: 28770

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

Started 2017 100% stocks. Ended the year 90/10. Accomplished by selling individual stocks and using new money to buy VWELX, VGSTX, and VFIIX.
Painful to pay those capital gains but I feel quite a bit more secure. Probably going to repeat this year and buy VBIIX.
by NibbanaBanana
Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 226
Views: 28770

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

"And this too shall come to pass."
by NibbanaBanana
Sat Jul 01, 2017 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: would you take a new mortgage to invest in stock market?
Replies: 30
Views: 3791

Re: would you take a new mortgage to invest in stock market?

Vanguard is calling for 5-6% returns for stocks and 2-3% returns for bonds over the next decade IIRC. What mortgage rate can you get? 3.5-4% at best? The question you have to ask yourself is: Am I feeling lucky? Well, are you ......?
by NibbanaBanana
Sat Jul 01, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Index fund fallacy - what we lost sight of!!
Replies: 55
Views: 8143

Re: The Index fund fallacy - what we lost sight of!!

Pretty much every top innovative tech company and Bio Pharma I.E. Apple, Google, Microsoft, Intel, NVidia (deep learning chips), Amgen, Biomarin, Genentech etc. etc. - are in the US and well, tech is the future whether you like it or not Whole bunch of recency bias and home country bias and sector ...
by NibbanaBanana
Wed Jun 28, 2017 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 13262

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

Thank you for pointing out the use of Prospective P/E. I personally don't find it so outrageous, and use the reverse (the prospective earnings yield) as a somewhat optimistic way to estimate future growth. I don't have a pointer readily available, but Forward PEs have been demonstrated as quite lud...
by NibbanaBanana
Tue Jun 27, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illinois: A slow swimming black swan?
Replies: 32
Views: 5586

Re: Illinois: A slow swimming black swan?

By definition, it is not a black swan. It is more like a flock of highly aggressive geese honking and biting at anyone within range. Well, everybody knew there was a real estate bubble but nobody seemed to know that it was going to bring down the global banking system and economy. This can't be good.
by NibbanaBanana
Sun Jun 25, 2017 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Favorite Vanguard Fund
Replies: 56
Views: 8714

Re: Your Favorite Vanguard Fund

I happen to have yearly performance data for a lot of the funds above, from previous discussions here and on other forums. This is through 2016. jimb Thanks jimb. That was a great post. I'm surprised to see that lump sum and DCA didn't really make much of a difference. Favorites for me: Probably a ...
by NibbanaBanana
Sun Jun 25, 2017 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Pours In = Diminishing Returns?
Replies: 9
Views: 2670

Re: Money Pours In = Diminishing Returns?

Take a look at a chart of the Wellington fund vs the Balanced Index fund from 1998 on. http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VWELX®ion=usa&culture=en-US Looks to me like the index fund got caught up in the TMT bubble of 2000 to some extent and suffered for it. Maybe the folks at Wellin...
by NibbanaBanana
Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not reinvesting dividends
Replies: 22
Views: 4453

Re: Not reinvesting dividends

Yep. I stopped reinvesting dividends from my individual stocks and broad market funds about a year ago. Reinvesting in mostly bond and balanced Vanguard funds. But I'm 90% stocks and wanted to ratchet down on risk a little. But yes, I think the broad markets and particularly growth are selling for h...
by NibbanaBanana
Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?
Replies: 82
Views: 10068

Re: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?

Actually. It can't, AFAIK. It can in that stopping smoking (and avoiding excessive consumption of alcohol) really can. Dietary change? Not much evidence of that, I don't think. In the sense that you can genuinely make it worse by a very bad diet, but there's little evidence that a good diet moves y...
by NibbanaBanana
Sun Jun 18, 2017 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Stocks - Legacy of the Great Recession?
Replies: 21
Views: 3129

Re: Global Stocks - Legacy of the Great Recession?

Much has been written about the legacy of the Great Recession and how deep a hole the recession created in the global economy. Recessions associated with financial crises are thought to be deeper and take much longer to recover than normal recessions. Yet, defying global trends, the earnings of U.S...
by NibbanaBanana
Sun Jun 18, 2017 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazon Buys Whole Foods
Replies: 103
Views: 14792

Re: Amazon Buys Whole Foods

Does this mean we will order groceries on line and they will show up at the door? That will be true for some, but I, for one, like to select my groceries. I choose the largest bunches of dandelion and dill, greenest of green apples, and cauliflower heads without blemishes. I note what is on sale, a...
by NibbanaBanana
Sun Jun 18, 2017 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fermenting Vegetables
Replies: 45
Views: 5094

Re: Fermenting Vegetables

When it comes to nutrition, if there isn't a link to a peer review article that you can read for yourself, then it's just somebody's opinion. Or they're trying to market something. Most likely the latter. For nutritional information I always use nutritionfacts.org. Good luck.
by NibbanaBanana
Fri Jun 16, 2017 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?
Replies: 82
Views: 10068

Re: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?

The problem is that there are no perfect solutions. A big problem is that we tend to have more medical problems as we get older. As one wiseacre commented, being over the age of 50 is a pre-existing condition. So society has to figure out a way to take care of the elderly, whose medical expenses ar...
by NibbanaBanana
Thu Jun 15, 2017 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk
Replies: 61
Views: 7586

Re: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk

My father is 96, my mother 93, and there are others in my family similarly long-lived. I don't know whether having a potential horizon that is >30 years is what you are terming "worst case," but in my situation it's at least a realistic case. So plans that involve exhausting assets at 30 years are ...
by NibbanaBanana
Thu Jun 15, 2017 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk
Replies: 61
Views: 7586

Re: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk

"That is why the prudent strategy for investors who have reached the point where their marginal utility of incremental potential wealth is low is to dominate their portfolios with high-quality fixed-income assets. There are some risks that are just not worth taking." That is very true. But there is...
by NibbanaBanana
Thu Jun 15, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk
Replies: 61
Views: 7586

Re: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk

"That is why the prudent strategy for investors who have reached the point where their marginal utility of incremental potential wealth is low is to dominate their portfolios with high-quality fixed-income assets. There are some risks that are just not worth taking." That is very true. But there is ...
by NibbanaBanana
Wed Jun 14, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cooktop died, not repairable, need recommendations
Replies: 36
Views: 3178

Re: Cooktop died, not repairable, need recommendations

I bought a Maytag. Terrible. Was missing some of the installation hardware and had to jump through hoops to get it. After a couple years one of the igniters broke. Can't recommend Maytag.
by NibbanaBanana
Wed Jun 14, 2017 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Cheap Champagne
Replies: 60
Views: 6817

Best Cheap Champagne

What's the best cheap champagne for a milestone celebration?

"How do you think I got so rich?"
by NibbanaBanana
Wed Jun 14, 2017 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds
Replies: 118
Views: 19741

Re: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds

I don't really even think about the countries, so much as the companies. It's amazing that for the tiny fee of 0.11% (Vanguard Total International, Admiral shares), I can invest in all of these companies and more... Toyota Royal Dutch Shell Samsung Michelin Nestle HSBC Unilever Bayer GlaxoSmithKlin...
by NibbanaBanana
Tue Jun 13, 2017 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset class returns?
Replies: 8
Views: 1210

Re: Asset class returns?

I just go to the Vanguard mutual funds and filter for index funds only. Then just compare the recent returns for the different funds of different asset classes. I did this about five years ago and noticed that EM were lagging. Bought the EM index fund, and it went down some more. It's still below wh...
by NibbanaBanana
Tue Jun 13, 2017 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Favorite Active Funds?
Replies: 22
Views: 3896

Re: Favorite Active Funds?

I really like the STAR fund. It's their balanced fund of active funds. And it's not just a balanced mutual fund but is an entire investment portfolio all rolled into one. It's trailed some of the other Vanguard balanced funds recently, probably because it has an international component. That may not...
by NibbanaBanana
Mon Jun 12, 2017 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safemax with varying AA
Replies: 41
Views: 3600

Re: Safemax with varying AA

Interesting. I don't know anything about this but I would think that the reason you would be able to increase your withdraw rate would be that your portfolio has grown over time due to stocks. Your idea would avoid having to sell stocks in a market collapse but there won't be as many stocks to recov...
by NibbanaBanana
Mon Jun 12, 2017 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds
Replies: 118
Views: 19741

Re: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds

Over my 25 year investing career, my observation is that there is a worldwide trend toward democracy and a capitalistic system similar to ours. Markets are opening up and global trade is increasing. Not at all perfect and very slow, but the trend is there. So it seems like there should be more inve...